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Hockey Stick Groundhog Day

Some ancient history Fifteen to twenty years ago, Michael Mann and colleagues wrote a few papers claiming that current warming was unprecedented over the last 600 to 2000 years.  Other climate scientists described Mann’s work variously as crap, pathetic, sloppy, and crap.  These papers caught the interest of Stephen McIntyre and this led to the … Continue reading

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Merchants of Drought

A journal called Scientific American (or ScAm for short) hosts the latest blog from Kate Marvel, claiming that the “Hot Planet” is “Creeping toward permanent drought.” The subtitle is “Both trees and climate models are telling us the same frightening story”.  Most of the text is her usual substance-free emotional wittering: “The smell—a peppery sweetness, … Continue reading

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When More is Less

A recent study by Jonathan Bamber et al solicited expert opinion regarding the possibilities for Sea Level Rise (SLR) resulting from Antarctic ice sheet collapse. The study’s methodology included a technique known as ‘Structured Expert Judgement’ to improve the reliability of the conclusions drawn by aggregating the opinions within the expert community. It has concluded … Continue reading