I had promised myself that I would waste no further time writing about the misconceptions and controversies surrounding the application of risk management within the climate change context. The evidence would suggest that I have said all I have to say on the subject, and folk are now getting a bit fed up of hearing … Continue reading
Author Archives: John Ridgway
Risk Analysis – What a Real Expert has Said About it
I would like to share with you a few words of wisdom provided by a gentleman I had the privilege to work with back in my days as a safety risk analyst. His name is Felix Redmill and, prior to his recent retirement, he was an internationally recognised expert within the field.1 All of … Continue reading
When More is Less
A recent study by Jonathan Bamber et al solicited expert opinion regarding the possibilities for Sea Level Rise (SLR) resulting from Antarctic ice sheet collapse. The study’s methodology included a technique known as ‘Structured Expert Judgement’ to improve the reliability of the conclusions drawn by aggregating the opinions within the expert community. It has concluded … Continue reading
Has the BBC Failed on its Charter?
“The First Law of Journalism: to confirm existing prejudice, rather than contradict it.” – Alexander Cockburn If you look on the American Press Institute’s website you will find a definition for the purpose of journalism that is very difficult to argue with: “News is that part of communication that keeps us informed of the changing … Continue reading
Tales of the Unexpected
Gather round boys and girls, because I want to tell you a story. It is a tale of two fearsome warriors engaged in a battle for your ecological soul. The first was an esteemed expert in all matters climatological and psychological. For the purposes of the tale, I will call him Stephan Lewandowsky. The second … Continue reading
Uncertainty – No one’s Friend and Everyone’s Bitch
Given that reliable calculations of risk and uncertainty are so central to the issue of climate change, I am struck by the diverse assessments of incertitude that climatologists, environmentalists, and climate activists are prepared to espouse under the broad aegis of climate alarmism. Firstly, we have the likes of Ben Santer. Here is someone … Continue reading
The Chains of Reasoning
If a dinner party is beginning to fizzle out, I always find it helpful to try one or two post-prandial parlour games. For example, you might want to try separating your guests into two groups. Each group is given a list of the same numbers and asked to estimate the list’s average. The only difference … Continue reading
