October 2019 Climate Crisis Update

Following on from the September Climate Crisis Update, one month later and it’s even worse than we thought. Whereas September in the UK, although only the 24th warmest, was still in the top 25% warmest since 1910, October 2019 is in the bottom 33% coolest since that time. It is a full half a degree cooler than the 1981-2010 average and over 3 degrees cooler than the warmest October in 2001.


One again, just like the month of September, the warmth in October appears to have peaked and is now on a downward trend.

Also, whereas September 2019 was a balmy 68th warmest in the long running Central England series, October 2019 ranks 161 places behind other, warmer Octobers. At exactly 10°C mean monthly temperature, it ranks equal with ten other years: 1659, 1660, 1663, 1668, 1669, 1670, 1702, 1709, 1722 and 1753. It’s remarkable that 6 out of 10 of those years were in the 11 year period 1659-1670, right at the beginning of the CET series and 8 out of 10 occurred within the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715).

We’ve seen quite a lot of rain in the UK in October and there has been flooding in quite a few areas, which, as we have seen,  has prompted some climate crisis fanatics to declare that it is yet more evidence of climate impacts:

So, to complete this climate crisis update, let’s look at UK rainfall.


That familiar pattern once again. A peak in the early 2000s, followed by a declining trend where October 2019, though wetter than the four previous years is only the 30th wettest since records began in 1910.

We’re two thirds of the way through Autumn now. What might we expect of November? Once again, looking at the trends for autumn in the UK, my guess is that November will probably also be cool, continuing the very slight downward trend after autumn warmth peaked in about 2010


Nothing about the British weather this year lends credibility to the Met Office’s and other’s insistence that we should be alarmed by our changing climate. Even the mean annual temperature for 2019 looks like it will not be anywhere near a record warm year, casting doubt upon the Met office’s past and present (UKCP18) predictions of rapid warming.


  1. You will have to stop doing this Jaime. You are countering the alarmism with actual facts. No wonder why you upset them.
    On the other hand, keep up the good work


  2. Chris,

    Another inconvenient fact to note is that in 2002, the Met Office estimated (UKCIP02) mean annual UK warming rates of between 0.1C and 0.5C per decade, covering emissions scenarios ranging from low to high, even after accounting for natural variability. What in fact has happened since 2003 in both the UK and CET datasets is no discernible significant warming trend at all after 2003.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. But Jaime, there has been a warming trend, at least in the eyes of the alarmist “scientists” and their acolytes like the BBC.
    Remember the record high in Scotland – at least until they found it was caused by the exhaust of an ice-cream truck. Some things are just too improbable to make up. Then there has been all those extremes from short lived or poorly sited stations. Paul Homewood has a near running series documenting the failings. And we don’t even need to mention the adjusted data.
    There needs to be a constant broadcasting of the failed predictions. Science is never settled, at least while the answers don’t match the forecasts

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Beth. It depends upon what you are expecting – Wiki suggests classic pornography or Taiwanese ghosts.


  5. The climate crisis is deepening. Parts of the US have seen the coldest October on record. Scandinavia is in deep freeze in early November and forecasts suggest the cold will extend westwards and southwards to affect the UK. Just weather of course, but a Scandinavian summer heatwave in 2018 and three hot days in the UK in July 2019 is evidence of climate breakdown.


  6. OT: XR’s globetrotting luvvies are at it again. Prompted by Richard ‘No Pressure’ Curtis, celebs including Imelda Staunton, Daisy Lowe and the butler from Downton Abbey have just announced that the British government must ‘REDUCE GLOBAL CARBON EMISSONS’ (sic) to zero within ten years, that old people must be retrained so that everyone can make a ‘NEW START’, that the government must do what XR says now or we’ll all face ‘TRAGIC CONSEQUENCES LATER’ and that there must be ‘NO ARGUMENT’ about this.


    How can the British government reduce *global* carbon emissions to zero?

    And why must old people be retrained?

    And will this happen in re-education camps?

    Shades of Brass Eye’s cake campaign: clueless luvvies parroting nonsense because they want to be trendy. There’s even the same struggle to read the scripts being held up off-camera.


  7. MIAB,

    That’s an interesting point about sceptics maybe doing more for the environment on a personal level than those who are most concerned by climate change. Speaking for myself, my carbon footprint is probably smaller than most loud mouth climate change protestors and certainly tiny compared to your average jet-setting climate scientist. I tend to be conservative in my general outlook and conservative with regard to the use (and re-use) of valuable resources.


  8. From – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50237551

    “Mountaineering in some parts of the world is becoming riskier because of climate change, climbing experts and scientists warn.
    They say warming in the Alps has thinned ice and snow cover, resulting into frequent rock-falls and landslides.
    Their concerns were voiced at a meeting of the International Climbing and Mountaineering Federation this week. Melting glaciers have also added challenges for mountaineers.
    Climbing routes have either had to be abandoned or changed because of the increased risks.
    In some places, climbing seasons have had to be brought forward.”

    how would that iceman found frozen in the alps “Ötzi” have made of this warming hysteria I wonder?


  9. @Hans Erren – thanks for the link – “https://theconversation.com/uk/environment”

    Laura Thomas-Walters – PhD Candidate in Conservation, University of Kent

    is not happy – “As someone who has researched the prominence of climate and ecological breakdown in David Attenborough’s documentaries, I was disappointed by the first episode of the legendary filmmaker’s latest series, Seven Worlds, One Planet”

    no – he reads a script given to him from his warm comfy home (beeb may fly him out now & then to get a pic against anything that shows how bad things are)

    but she has more to say – https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pan3.10052

    will give the punch line – “I believe that Attenborough and the production teams behind Seven Worlds One Planet are truly passionate about the environment. It is brilliant that they are bringing the beauty of the living world to our screens, but it is time to go beyond inspiration. Show us what we have done wrong, show us how it is affecting us, and then tell us how we can help”

    Calling Greta!!


  10. Jamie and other great commentators.
    I have a problem.
    As we all now know the world will end on 30th August 2031.
    It just so happens that is my beautiful ex finaces 82 nd birthday.
    We usually celebrate with a nice bottle of red, a juicy fillet steak and an Eton mess in the evening. In order not to waste money, could someone on here with more knowledge tell is the world going to end before or after dinner?
    Of course my being 87 in 2031 I will already have completed the programme mention by Ginny Burgoo above.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Patrick. Do you keep chickens, or do you only have them in their embryonic form?


  12. It is interesting that people are starting to think that the global economic slowdown is possibly being caused by a drop in automobile production, with its long and complex supply chains. Greens are maybe beginning to bring down the world economy. They should be proud


  13. “Greens” are fiecing cars to be more expensive, less reliable, more costly to maintain and become worthless more quickly. The recent fire scares in California prove that electric cars are worthless for evacuations. Hybrids are much more expensive, have huge long term maintenance issues, and have high cost rate earth components and dubious net energy savings. Instead of more cars like the 700 series Volvo that was was affordable, reliable, rugged, safe, fuel efficient and relatively simple to maintain, we have more and more delicate high cost, highly complex short lived vehicles.


  14. Shouldn’t short-lived cars increase car sales as demands for more frequent replacements increases? Changes in how cars are viewed in terms of the environment should also cause more frequent replacements. We purchased a diesel, believing the hype that diesels were more efficient (and then diesel was cheaper per litre than petrol) only to discover they are more polluting and are being actively discouraged. We are replacing our vehicle much sooner than we had planned. I suspect my experience is not unusual.


  15. That’s the puzzle Alan. IMF data shows that global vehicle production fell for the first time in a decade and yet…as you say there are other factors. One of them in my experience is the growth in PCP plans – where very few people I know are actually buying cars outright, they just rent them for a few years and hand them back to the dealer, thus feeding a very active second-hand market. The same goes for the car hire companies. These point to higher production volumes and yet the IMF reports a slowdown


  16. miab
    I can’t see how PCP deals alter the picture much, but they do change who it is that purchases the new cars – from individual drivers to dealerships. I have a colleague who buys his cars using PCP loans, handing them back after two years or so. If he and I are typical, and he gets through 3-4 times as many new cars as I do, that suggests that PCP loans should increase the demand for new cars quite significantly – as you point out.


  17. Among the 11,258 scientists who have signed Ripple et al’s ‘World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency’ is a Professor Micky (sic) Mouse of the Micky Mouse Institute for the Blind, Namibia.

    Psych-types are well-represented among the signatories, as always. Lots of students. Lots of emeritus profs. Many signatories are vague about what makes them scientists. Only a few are honest enough to call themselves activists.

    Peter Wadhams is there again but no Maslin, Lewandowsky or Rice this time.


  18. November in the UK looks like it will turn out to be colder than recent years, CET is currently running 0.8C colder than the 1961-90 mean, with no prospect of a rise in temperatures in the next 10 days. So it very much looks like this autumn will be decidedly on the chilly side. There is no climate crisis in the UK, but there might be, if current monthly and seasonal trends are an indicator of what the future has in store. Energy rationing, blackouts, ever more expensive electricity, the banning of gas and oil-fired central heating, increasing reliance upon unreliables – just when the climate of the British Isles turns cooler and the weather becomes angrier and less predictable. What could possibly go wrong? But don’t worry, the models will keep it toasty, especially the newer ones.


  19. It looks like Dec 2019 in Central England will have a mean of around 6C which is mild(ish) but nothing out of the ordinary. Way behind the warmest ever (2015) of 9.7C. 1974 and 1934 were joint 2nd warmest at 8.1C. You gotta love a ‘climate crisis’ which continually blows hot, not so hot, cool and decidedly cold, as the years march ever on.


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