Following on from the September Climate Crisis Update, one month later and it’s even worse than we thought. Whereas September in the UK, although only the 24th warmest, was still in the top 25% warmest since 1910, October 2019 is in the bottom 33% coolest since that time. It is a full half a degree cooler than the 1981-2010 average and over 3 degrees cooler than the warmest October in 2001.
One again, just like the month of September, the warmth in October appears to have peaked and is now on a downward trend.
Also, whereas September 2019 was a balmy 68th warmest in the long running Central England series, October 2019 ranks 161 places behind other, warmer Octobers. At exactly 10°C mean monthly temperature, it ranks equal with ten other years: 1659, 1660, 1663, 1668, 1669, 1670, 1702, 1709, 1722 and 1753. It’s remarkable that 6 out of 10 of those years were in the 11 year period 1659-1670, right at the beginning of the CET series and 8 out of 10 occurred within the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715).
We’ve seen quite a lot of rain in the UK in October and there has been flooding in quite a few areas, which, as we have seen, has prompted some climate crisis fanatics to declare that it is yet more evidence of climate impacts:
So, to complete this climate crisis update, let’s look at UK rainfall.
That familiar pattern once again. A peak in the early 2000s, followed by a declining trend where October 2019, though wetter than the four previous years is only the 30th wettest since records began in 1910.
We’re two thirds of the way through Autumn now. What might we expect of November? Once again, looking at the trends for autumn in the UK, my guess is that November will probably also be cool, continuing the very slight downward trend after autumn warmth peaked in about 2010
Nothing about the British weather this year lends credibility to the Met Office’s and other’s insistence that we should be alarmed by our changing climate. Even the mean annual temperature for 2019 looks like it will not be anywhere near a record warm year, casting doubt upon the Met office’s past and present (UKCP18) predictions of rapid warming.