Words are important, since (if used carefully and with thought) they illustrate the mindset of the person, or group of people, using them to express ideas. So it is with Scotland’s third Just Transition Commission (JTC), the launch of which was announced earlier this week.

Its heading is “Fairness at the heart of how Scotland adapts to a changing climate.” I suggest that the word “adapts” is immediately telling, since it represents a massive deflection. Sceptics, and opponents of Net Zero, have long advocated for adaptation to climate change ahead of mitigation of climate change, since we in the UK (including Scotland) have the ability to adapt, but no ability to mitigate against climate change. Yet “Scotland’s Climate Change Plan – 2026-2040” (which I discussed here) explicity talks of “…reducing our [Scotland’s] emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change…”. In the fantasy world inhabited by Scottish government Ministers, they seriously seem to think that by reducing Scotland’s territorial (not consumption) emissions (which represent perhaps 0.05-0.07% of global emissions), climate change can be mitigated. I have news for them. Nothing Scotland does in the way of reducing its territorial greenhouse gas emissions will make the slightest difference to climate change.

After the heading, we reach the opening paragraph, which again demonstrates where the authors are coming from:

Communities hit hardest by wildfires, flooding and drought will have a stronger voice in shaping Scotland’s climate resilience with the establishment of the third Just Transition Commission.

Well, it’s fair enough that those who are worst-affected by weather events (and man-made events such as wildfires) and who are most affected by attempts to adapt to them, should have a say. But the whole point of earlier JTCs in Scotland has been (or, at least, was supposed to be) to ensure that those whose lives are damaged by the “transition” have a means to reduce that harm. For example, the Foreword to the 96 page Report of Scotland’s Second Just Transition Commission opens as follows:

Firstly, are people impacted, including those with livelihoods tied to high-emission or unsustainable economic activities, being supported sufficiently to plan and prepare for a transition to more sustainable work? Secondly, are the benefits of a healthy planet and the green economy clear and tangible?

It also acknowledges that “[o]ur core purpose remains the same as it was when the first JTC was established in 2018: to help enable a fair transition to net-zero emissions in Scotland, undertaken in partnership with those impacted by changes.” The Report contains six key messages, the second of which includes the blindingly obvious (obvious to all except Net Zero-obsessed politicians, it seems) that “[t]here is no just path to Net Zero through deindustrialisation.” The fifth key message will ring hollow with those many communities adversely affected by renewable energy developments and the panoply of industrial-scale developments that are necessitated by wind and solar power, such as BESS and swathes of pylons: “Communities and local authorities need capacity and resource to keep pace with developments, shape the transition and influence major decisions affecting their area.” Again, those words seem to be carefully chosen. No option is offered for communities to say no to major developments affecting their area. They are to be limited to keeping pace with, shaping and influencing (but in no circumstances preventing) major decisions from being taken that will ruin (or at least have a serious adverse impact on) their lives. It seems that the Second JTC stopped short of allowing meaningful local democracy to get in the way of the Net Zero project, which our lords and masters have imposed on us from on high.

Indeed, so much is the case that the Report goes out of its way to endorse a statement issued by the second JTC on 14^th December 2023:

The strength of a just transition approach is that it offers a structured way of working through the fairness issues associated with policies that reduce our emissions. The aspiration to achieve a just transition must never be used as rhetorical cover for inaction or delay. Bold and innovative planning and delivery to support a just transition will be the key enabler of the kinds of changes that lie ahead, in terms of how we work, move around, heat our homes, the food we eat, and how our land and its resources are shared. While we have made decent progress in reducing emissions, this has been achieved principally through ongoing work to expand the amount of energy generated from renewable supply. What comes now is the hard stuff that touches directly on our everyday lives and livelihoods.

No “just transition” can be allowed to get in the way of, or delay, the Net Zero project. Perhaps the reality is that the so-called “Just Transition” represents no more than meaningless words.

So much for the second JTC. What of the third JTC that has just been announced? Well, it appears that the view has been taken on high that the mitigation argument has been won (even though it is self-evidently nonsense). Consequently:

Running until 2031, the Commission will focus on adaptation, reflecting the increasing toll extreme weather is taking on people’s daily lives, while working to ensure the costs and benefits of adaptation measures are shared fairly.

In addition, though:

The Commission will also support a just transition to net zero. It will advise on the impact of decarbonisation on jobs and industry, including in Scotland’s offshore energy sector, and work with businesses, unions and communities to help shape a fairer, greener economy.

We’ll see. Certainly, the Report of the second JTC (see page 13 thereof) arrived at some pretty damning conclusions:

The Commission’s remit requires it to reflect annually on Scotland’s progress towards a just transition.

In our annual report for 2023, we said: “The current path will not deliver […] significant further action is urgently needed across a range of core areas to put Scotland on track to deliver a just transition towards net zero, nature restoration and future resilience.”

In our 2024 annual report, we warned that the just transition objective was “at risk of going backwards,” noting the significant shortfall between current policies and plans and what would be required to deliver a just transition, as well as the lack a comprehensive strategy for delivery. The Commission identified “a significant risk of compounding missed opportunities unless rapid progress is now made.”

As the second Just Transition Commission concludes its work, our assessment is that progress has fallen short of what is needed. Unless we renew our ambition and redouble our efforts, the enormous opportunity – both for meaningful climate action and for reducing inequality – will be lost.

Never mind that the “transition” is highly unjust – the show must go on. I am neither a climate scientist nor a social scientist, so I’m sure I know less than the high-powered members of the third JTC who are quoted in the announcement of its launch, but I do struggle with all this:

Co-chair Professor Dave Reay said:
“Climate change is the biggest risk multiplier for inequality this century….

…Co-chair Satwat Rehman said:

…We need to address existing inequalities and proactively tackle the risk of new forms of injustice being created as our climate and our economy are reshaped….

In my naivety I assumed that things like unemployment, disability, poverty, drug addiction, lack of access to a GP, crime and a myriad of other problems facing Scotland, especially its grimmer inner-city areas, represent pretty big risk multipliers for inequality, yet it turns out that the biggest risk multiplier of the lot is climate change. In Scotland. Silly me.

Words are important, as is the outlook of the worthy people selected to be on the panel. I’m curious as to how one gets selected for something like this. A wide range of opinions, as well as backgrounds, would surely be useful. Yet there was clearly no danger that Net Zero sceptics such as Kathryn Porter, Scottish resident Andrew Montford (of Net Zero Watch) or Gordon Hughes (former Professor of Political Economy and Head of the School of Economics at the University of Edinburgh) would be invited to participate in the third JTC. Let’s look at who has been appointed to it instead. So far as my critical comments are concerned, these are aimed, not at the individuals – who I am sure all sincere and well-intentioned – but at the process that guarantees a unanimity of view will prevail rather than allowing a diversity of opinions to be heard.

Professor Dave Reay

Co-chair of the third JTC and Emeritus Professor of Carbon Management and Education at the University of Edinburgh. His profile, as set out at the University of Edinburgh website makes it clear that he will be a safe pair of hands when it comes to ensuring that the third JTC remains on track, rather than offering any doubts about the Scottish Government’s Net Zero policies:

Outwith the university, David is an established advisor on climate change action to governments, agencies and public bodies. He sat on the Green Jobs Taskforce for the UK Government, was chair of the Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan for the Scottish Government, and also chaired the Climate Change Committee’s expert advisory panel on skills for net zero. David is also a regular expert witness for parliamentary committees in Holyrood and Westminster. In September 2023 David was appointed by the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero as co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.

Satwat Rehman

Co-chair of the third JTC and Chief Executive of One Parent Families Scotland. That is an organisation that seems fully signed-up to the climate crisis narrative, as this quote from Charis Chittick, Head of Policy, Strategy & Communications at One Parent Families Scotland confirms:

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing our society. At One Parent Families Scotland, we see the devastating impact our changing climate is having on many of the families we support…

Really?

Chris Birt

Associate Director, Joseph Rowntree Foundation. I endorse his appointment, as someone genuinely focussed on the issue of poverty, who does not seem to proselytise for Net Zero – indeed he regularly draws the attention of politicians to the damage caused by high energy prices.

Dr Margaret Douglas

Consultant in Public Health Medicine, Public Health Scotland. On her appointment to the third JTC, she is quoted as saying:

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing us all, including those of us working in public health. Climate action is essential to protect health and can bring wider benefits such as cleaner air, healthy greenspaces and high-quality jobs in renewable industries. The Just Transition Commission is working to ensure that everyone in Scotland benefits from a fairer, greener future and I’m delighted to be joining to bring a public health perspective to this important work.

Richard Hardy

STUC President (Prospect). On his appointment as President of the STUC he is quoted as saying:

It is my hope that as STUC president I can help to make work fairer in Scotland, and set us on the path to a genuine Just Transition from high to low carbon industry.

Tessa Khan

Executive Director, Uplift. Ms Khan needs no introduction for those of us who pay attention to the debate around energy policy and the possible licensing of oil and gas fields in the North Sea (she actively campaigns against this). Her short biography on the Uplift website should suffice for current purposes:

Tessa is an international climate change lawyer and campaigner. Before founding Uplift, she was co-founder and Co-Director of the Climate Litigation Network, which supports groundbreaking strategic climate litigation around the world. She has spent two decades supporting grassroots, regional and international movements for justice and has served as an expert advisor to UN human rights bodies and national governments, while working in Thailand, Egypt, India, the US, the Netherlands and Australia….In 2019, she was named by TIME magazine as one of fifteen women leading the fight against climate change. Tessa is also a recipient of a Climate Breakthrough award, the largest climate action grant for individuals.

Deborah Long

Chief Executive, Scottish Environment LINK. Inevitably, given her job, she is concerned about climate change, but let us hope (as this article suggests) that unlike some Net Zero zealots she understands that we need to look after the environment, and that there is more to environmentalism than reducing greenhouse gas emissions while damaging the environment in the process.

Laurie Macfarlane

Co-Director, Future Economy Scotland. The author of articles such as “Is Scotland on track to meet its net zero target? The latest emissions statistics show that bold measures are required to accelerate decarbonisation.”.

Rachel McEwen

Former Head of Sustainability, SSE. Her biography at the JTC website is as follows:

Rachel McEwen is an experienced sustainability professional, having been the Chief Sustainability Officer of a FTSE100 energy company between 2013 and 2025. She now pursues activities that support social justice and climate action and is enthusiastic to rejoin Scotland’s Just Transition Commission, having been a member since its first iteration in 2019. Rachel is also a member of the sustainability advisory committee of Royal London Asset Management, has joined the Great British Energy Ethical Supply Chains Advisory group and chairs the leadership council of WWF Scotland.

I note also that prior to working for SSE she was Senior Special Adviser to Scotland’s First Minister from 2001 to 2007, so she would appear to have the inside track with the SNP government.. Given SSE’s assault on Scotland’s countryside and wild places, and given the stance of WWF with regard to climate change, her appointment may not be enthusiastically welcomed in Net Zero/climate change sceptic circles.

Sarah Moore

CEO, Peterson Energies. She’s certainly on board with the Scottish government’s agenda, as this press release demonstrates:

Sarah Moore: “As one of the first energy logistics companies to achieve carbon neutrality, we are committed to playing our part in the energy transition, supporting clients with their sustainability targets, and making a real difference by investing in a greener future.”…

...Clients now benefit from the assurance that Peterson’s logistics services are carbon neutral certified and will receive consistent and accurate carbon data to support their scope three emission targets. Peterson also provides advice and support in developing a carbon management system for clients and will soon offer a carbon-neutral consultancy service drawing on its recent success and experience.

Earlier this year, Peterson won the Supplier Sustainability Award in the Net Zero Energy Transition Awards hosted by Scottish Renewables. The award recognized the significant progress Peterson has made on its sustainability journey, leading the way in reducing carbon emissions by achieving carbon-neutral status by the end of 2022 and net zero by 2025.

Dennis Overton

Food and drink entrepreneur and Chair of Scottish Food Commission. He seems to be interested in sustainable food, which is laudable, but he also seems to be signed up to the climate crisis narrative. In 2019 he was co-signatory to a letter which commenced:

In these testing and volatile times, little is more important than tackling the global climate and nature crises and securing the nation’s long-term health and wellbeing….

and which ended:

…The Commission has described a compelling future, which we all want to help happen. Its work was showcased at the UN Climate Action Summit in New York. Let’s not undermine this opportunity to demonstrate strong UK leadership to invest in a more sustainable future, through pressures to do trade deals, at any cost….

I don’t imagine he will rock the Net Zero boat.

Hannah Ritchie

Author and Senior Researcher in the Programme for Global Development, University of Oxford. In 2022, she was named Scotland’s Youth Climate Champion. A summary of some of her views can be found here.

Nick Robins

Nick Robins, Senior Director, Climate Finance and Private Sector, World Resources Institute. Part of his short biography at the WRI website reads:

From 2014 to 2018, he was Co-Director of the UN Environment’s Inquiry into a Sustainable Finance System. Prior to this, he was the Head of HSBC’s Climate Change Centre of Excellence and Head of Sustainable and Responsible Investment funds at Henderson Global Investors. Nick has also worked at the European Commission and the Business Council for Sustainable Development. In addition, Nick is a Commissioner on Scotland’s Just Transition Commission as well as the co-founder of Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker.

His short (though rather longer!) biography at the Grantham Institute reveals in more detail the extent to which he is committed to the climate crisis narrative.

Stephen Smellie

National Executive Committee member, UNISON. His short biography at the JTS website gives us the gist:

Stephen is a member of UNISON the public service union and employed by South Lanarkshire Council. He has been active in his union raising awareness of climate change issues and shaping policy. Stephen was a member of the last Just Transition Commission and participates in the Just Transition Partnership, a partnership between trade unions and environmental groups in Scotland. Stephen served on the 2021-2022 Just Transition Commission.

Mairi Spowage

Director, Fraser of Allander Institute. The cross-fertilisation between academia, government and campaigning organisations can readily be seen here:

Decisions about public spending play an important role in realising Scotland’s net zero targets because they affect how carbon reductions are funded. Providing a clearer understanding of the environmental and climate impacts of spending decisions will be instrumental in delivering greener budgets and making progress towards net zero ambitions in the years ahead.

ClimateXChange has commissioned the Fraser of Allander Institute to explore options aimed at improving how greenhouse gas emissions are considered in the development of Scottish Budgets and spending decisions….

…The research will be led by Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at The University of Strathclyde….

Conclusion

So what do we have? Something which, from the outside, looks suspiciously like a closed shop. Members comprise academics who are signed up to the Net Zero/climate crisis agenda; trade unionists who support it too (certainly no – and there are plenty – trade union leaders who are angry about the adverse impacts of Net Zero on their members’ jobs); people who work for or with, or have worked closely for or with, the Scottish government; climate campaigners; representatives of charities (who by and large support the climate crisis narrative); and pro-Net Zero business people.

Who don’t we have? Anyone rendered unemployed by the “transition”; Net Zero-critical trade union leaders; representatives of fossil fuel companies; the likes of Kathryn Porter and Gordon Hughes, who might cast doubt on the wisdom and practicability of the Net Zero project; or any community groups campaigning against renewable energy developments.

Consequently, I don’t suppose much will change, and for sceptics and opponents of Net Zero, this won’t be a case of third time lucky.