The news that 50,000 people are working in the Scottish renewables sector should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. Even as reported we learn that it is based on Office for National Statistics survey data with a model of the Scottish economy, because renewable energy is not separately identified in the National Accounts. We are also told that survey uncertainty, revisions to official data and an updated economic model mean the results should not be compared directly with previous editions. These caveats, taken together, suggest either that previous reports, or this one, can not be regarded as truly accurate.

The Report is presented as independent, having been conducted by the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) at the University of Strathclyde. However, it was commissioned by Scottish Renewables, so the intent behind it was clearly to propagandise in favour of the Scottish renewable energy industry. One of the key words running through the Report is “estimate”. The 50,000 jobs turn out to be an estimate of around 49,200 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs. The estimates, we are told, are also subject to revision as further survey responses are received and as methods are improved. How independent is the Report? Its authors appear to support the official narrative – the following is taken from the Report’s introduction:

In Scotland, technologies like offshore and onshore wind, solar panels, heat pumps, and marine energy are already playing a key role in cutting carbon emissions and supporting future energy security. Alongside these environmental benefits, the renewable energy sector also brings important economic advantages. It supports jobs, attracts investment, and creates positive effects across other parts of the economy. This report draws on an input-output model of the Scottish economy to estimate how much economic activity is currently supported by the renewable energy sector.

What is the renewable energy sector? Who knows? It is not currently defined by National Statistics. Instead, the Report has constructed a hypothetical renewable energy sector. It’s difficult to know what that means, but it’s easy to see that the most generous gloss has been put on this – for example, of the 49,200 FTE “supported by” Scotland’s renewable energy sector (Table 4), 825 are in arts, entertainment and recreation; 350 are in public admin and defence; 375 are in water supply, sewerage and waste; 1,135 are in finance and insurance ;200 are in mining and quarrying. And so it goes on, with jobs seemingly being re-labelled to suit the narrative. Almost incredibly, 5,050 are said to be in electricity and gas.

As well as repeated use of the word “estimate”, the Report also relies a great deal on modelling. Page 7 rightly contains the following caveat:

…it is important to interpret these figures with some caution. The estimates are based on statistics which involve relatively small sample sizes at this level of detail. As a result, there is a wider margin of uncertainty around the numbers.

The Report runs to no more than 12 pages. Its analysis is too short and too simple to allow detailed scrutiny. For instance, of the jobs said to be supported by the Scottish renewables sector, we are not told how many of the workers concerned are UK citizens and how many are foreign nationals. We know that many of the renewable energy companies working in Scotland and hoovering up taxpayer-funded subsidies are foreign-owned. We know that much of the money paid to them goes abroad. The Report fails to analyse such issues.

The front cover image for the report was provided by SSE. A cynic might ponder whether he who pays the piper calls the tune.