In a comment on A Heated Debate I drew attention to a Guardian article which told us this:

The government is increasing its air source heat pump grants for homeowners in England and Wales by 50% to £7,500 from Monday amid criticism about slow adoption of the low-carbon technology.

The £2,500 in extra support – on top of £5,000 offered – aims to take the cost of installing an air source heat pump below that of the average gas boiler.

Support for installing ground source heat pumps – which are not suitable for most homes in the UK as they require access to a large outdoor space – will increase from £6,000 to £7,500…

…But the government’s stated ambition for 600,000 heat pumps to be installed every year by 2028 has struggled to find public support due to the high upfront costs of installations and a lack of clear information.

The NIC said last week that the current rate of heat pump installation is “not cutting the mustard” and the scheme’s funding needs to increase if more households are to benefit. The scheme’s current budget is underspent, according to PA, as households balk at the cost and complexity of switching.

That was more than three months ago, and so when I saw “Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics: December 2023” on the Government website I thought I would take a look to see if the additional grants have had the effect of increasing uptake towards the Government’s target of 600,000 heat pump installations per annum. The short answer is “no”.

The statistics relate to the government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme (“BUS”) which “aims to incentivise and increase the deployment of low carbon heating technologies by providing an upfront capital grant towards the cost of an installation of an air source heat pump (ASHP), a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and, in limited circumstances, a biomass boiler”. To that end “grants available were £5,000 for an ASHP or biomass boiler, and £6,000 for a GSHP. From 23 October 2023, grant levels for the installation of ASHPs and GSHPs increased to £7,500. Grants for biomass boilers remain at £5,000.” The initial grant pool of £450 million until 2025 has been added to by a further £1.5 billion until 2028. It seems that the powers-that-be have recognised that they were failing to achieve the level of uptake they wanted, and that the absurd costs of heat pumps might have at least something to do with that, so they went and threw a bucket load of (our) money at it.

It’s early days, but it doesn’t seem to have worked with a rightly sceptical public. There was a bit of an uptick in October, though not at the levels that the Government might have hoped for, then interest fell off in November, and again in December. The Government valiantly attempts to spin its failure thus:

New figures show applications to the government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme in December jumped by 49% compared to the same month in 2022.

Well, yes and no. It really is the most disingenuous (I’m tempted to say dishonest) piece of spin. For some reason the number of voucher applications received in December 2022 (924) was the lowest monthly total since the commencement of the scheme in May 2022. Otherwise the number of applications has generally been between 1,200 and 1,500 per month. In October 2023, possibly with the increased subsidy level coming into effect, the number of monthly applications jumped to 3,355, but in November it fell to 2,557, and in December it collapsed to just 1,378, which is very roughly the average level of applications before the increased grant level was announced. It’s too early to say whether there will be increased interest, or whether the British public will remain as indifferent to the grant scheme as they have been to date. However, to spin a second huge huge monthly fall in applications as a “jump” of 49% (by reference to the lowest figure in the database, which, conveniently, was twelve months earlier) strikes me as disgraceful. “Trust me, I’m from the Government”. I don’t think so.

Remember that the Government’s target is 600,000 heat pump installations per annum. Well, in the 20 months of the scheme from May 2022 to December 2023 (inclusive), they received the grand total of 31,378 voucher applications. In other words, fewer than 20,000 per annum on average. I’d say they have some way to go, and if the steep decline in applications from October to December 2023 is anything to go by, the target is going to be missed quite spectacularly.

This is extraordinary given the tsunami of heat pump propaganda with which we are being inundated, and the increased size of the grants being provided at the taxpayers’ expense. It seems the British public aren’t remotely interested, no doubt because they are happy with their gas boilers, can’t afford to change to heat pumps (even with the assistance of a substantial grant), and don’t want the massive level of disruption that installing a heat pump often entails.

A quick look at the costs might be revealing. According to the Government statistics, the median cost of installations in the fourth quarter of 2024 is as follows:

Air source heat pumps: £13,582.

Ground source heat pumps: £25,367.

Biomass boilers: £15,227.

Of those, only the cost of biomass boilers seems to be falling (from a high of £18,000 in the second quarter of 2023 – though the cost was £15,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022).

Air source heat pumps have seen costs rise steadily from a low of £12,861 in the third quarter of 2022.

Ground source heat pumps have also seen a steady rise in costs, from a low of £23,000 in the second quarter of 2023.

Postscript

If, like me, you think the number of voucher applications received after twenty months is risible, the figures relating to redemptions during that period are even worse, working out at fewer than 1,000 per month on average. 19,839 redemption applications have been received, and 19,064 of them have so far been paid.

I think it’s fair to say that it isn’t exactly going to plan.

11 Comments

  1. For many (perhaps the majority of) existing properties, it would be cheaper to demolish and rebuild than convert the central heating system to use an ASHP. If they’re such a great idea, why don’t we see them in new builds, that can be designed around their limitations?

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  5. The push for heat pumps is part of the “electrify everything” mantra, which is really a war against natural gas (methane) since it is an hydrocarbon fuel. The extremists are aiming to eliminate any and all natgas appliances and conveniences.

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  6. “Heat pumps needed at ‘much faster rate’ – watchdog”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68133751

    Clean energy such as heat pumps need to be installed in Scotland’s homes “at a much faster rate”, according to the financial watchdog Audit Scotland.

    Its report said only about 5,000 heat pumps were installed in 2022, a long way short of the current target of about 25,000 a year.

    The target is set to rise rapidly to 200,000 annually later in the decade.

    Audit Scotland said ministers needed to produce a “clear delivery plan” to ensure the targets were met….

    …The report said it would require the majority of households to change their heating systems and described the scale of the challenge as “huge” with several “risks to success”….

    …It recommends that ministers set out a “clear plan of action” to support the large scale change which is necessary.

    The Scottish government has committed £1.8bn in the current parliamentary term to decarbonising home heating but estimates that a total of £33bn will be needed.

    That figure is made up of public, business and individual household funding….

    A huge challenge, barely any progress made to date, several risks to success, massively expensive, and it will make no measurable difference to the climate at all. Yet the report doesn’t question the “logic” of requiring this change against the will of the people. It’s the same south of the border. Bonkers, the lot of them.

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  7. “UK to scrap ‘boiler tax’ after makers raise prices to cover any fines
    Penalties drafted as part of ‘clean-heat plan’ to hasten takeup of eco-friendly heat pumps replaced by quota system”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/04/uk-scraps-boiler-tax-after-makers-raise-prices-to-cover-any-fines

    …A formal decision has not been announced, but according to the report, Coutinho believes ditching the policy may be the only way to get manufacturers to drop their prices again and that the government can still hit its target of 600,000 heat pumps through other schemes and incentives.

    “We remain committed to our ambition of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028,” said a Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson when approached for comment.

    “We want to do this in a way that does not burden consumers, and we’ve increased our heat pump grants by 50% to £7,500 – making it one of the most generous schemes in Europe.

    “This pragmatic approach is working, with a nearly 50% increase in people applying in December 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.”

    There’s that disingenuous use of a dodgy statistic again. As for the claim that the approach is working, one dodgy statistic doesn’t make it true – the statistics overall suggest that the claim is nonsense.

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  8. The BBC has caught up with developments:

    “Fines for missing heat pump targets could be dropped, Downing Street hints”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68207355

    The article is full of the usual howls of anguish from the usual suspects, and ends with:

    …Mr Sunak’s spokesperson said the government was on track to meet its 2028 heat pump installation target, adding the prime minister wants to do this “in a way that doesn’t burden consumers”.

    Patently the Government isn’t on track to meet its 2028 target. Why are they allowed to spout this drivel without challenge?

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  9. “UK scheme to spur take-up of heat pumps delayed after gas lobby pressure

    Mechanism is vital to boost the ‘only viable option’ to decarbonise emissions from heating homes, says green charity”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/government-delays-scheme-to-spur-take-up-of-heat-pumps-after-pressure-from-gas-lobbyists

    Says the Guardian:

    “The government has delayed by a year its scheme for spurring the take-up of heat pumps, under pressure from the gas boiler industry.”

    And it then goes on to provide absolutely no evidence whatsoever that the delay is due to such lobbying. Instead, the whole article is really just lobbying on behalf of heat pump suppliers and net zero zealots:

    “Juliet Phillips, an analyst at the E3G thinktank, welcomed aspects of the strategy but urged the government to move faster. “The government must move ahead with laying the legislation as soon as possible – without this, there will be continued speculation that the mechanism has been quietly killed,” she said.

    David Cowdrey, director of external affairs at the MCS Foundation, a charity that works on low-carbon homes, said: “It is extremely disappointing to see that the government has postponed one of the most important policies for getting the UK off fossil fuel heating. The clean heat market mechanism is crucial to the rollout of heat pumps, which are the only viable option to decarbonising at scale the 17% of UK emissions that are created by heating our homes.”

    He added: “The government needs to immediately set out plans for how it intends to fill the huge gap in heat pump plans that they have just created. We need clear and consistent policy more than anything, and without that the UK’s target of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 is in serious jeopardy.””

    Well, I won’t quibble with that last claim, at least.

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