My thanks to Robin Guenier for bringing to my attention the recently updated Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). This provides us with up to date data regarding greenhouse gas emissions to 2025. It offers a stark counterpoint to those campaigning organisations that seek to tell us that overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions are just around the corner; that we need to make one more push and we’ll be over the hill and on the way to the overall emissions reductions that they say are necessary if we are to meet the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. The corrective to that viewpoint can be found in the opening paragraph of the summary of main findings in the database:

China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia and Indonesia were the world’s largest GHG emitters in 2025. Together they account for 50.1% of global population, 62.3% of global gross domestic product, 63% of global fossil fuel consumption and 62% of global GHG emissions. Among these top emitters, in 2025, the United States recorded the largest absolute increase between 2024 and 2025 (+131.5 Mt CO2eq, or +2.2%), followed by Indonesia (+16.1 Mt CO2eq, or +1.2%). China’s emissions remained broadly stable, increasing by only 9.6 Mt CO2eq (+0.1%), while India, the EU27 and Russia recorded small decreases. With only two exceptions, 2009 (global financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID-19), global GHG emissions have grown steadily since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in fossil CO2 emissions by China, India, and other emerging economies. Based on the emission estimates for 2025 provided by EDGAR, global GHG emissions increased by 0.7% compared to 2024, reaching 54.1 Gt CO2eq.

The EU 27 (generating 5.78% of global GHGs), reduced year on year emissions by just 0.24% (and some EU countries – Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Finland, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain – actually increased their year-on-year emissions). The UK’s reduction was just under 1%, but this seems to be achieved in significant part by exporting emissions (consumption emissions aren’t declining in the UK at anything like that rate, as Jit has explained here).

GHG Emissions Reductions – Major Emitters

Among major emitters, other than the UK and the EU (or more precisely, some EU countries) very few countries saw reductions in GHG emissions between 2024 and 2025. Australia’s reduction was 1.2%. Brazil’s was 0.865%. India’s was just 0.15% (and its increased reliance on coal might suggest that even this modest reduction will now be going into reverse). Japan’s reduction was 1.44%. However, Japan’s population is falling, and its per capita GHG emissions fell by the smaller proportion of 1.04%. Russia’s reduction (does this take into account the emissions arising from its war on Ukraine?) was just 0.13%. Russia’s population is also falling, and its per capita emissions actually increased by 0.055%.

GHG Emissions Increases – Major Emitters

No other major emitter of GHGs (by which I mean emitters of 1% or more of the global total) reduced them at all in 2025. In fact Canada (responsible for 1.41% of global emissions) increased their emissions by almost 2%.

China (responsible for 29.51%) increased emissions by 0.06%. Indonesia (responsible for 2.51%) increased its emissions by almost 1.2%.

International aviation (responsible for 1.17%) increased its emissions by more than 5%.

International shipping (responsible for 1.39%) increased its emissions by almost 2%.

Iran (responsible for 2.07%) increased its emissions by 1.71%.

Mexico (responsible for 1.32%) increased its emissions by 0.78%.

Saudi Arabia (responsible for 1.56%) increased its emissions by 1.27%.

South Korea (responsible for 1.29%) increased its emissions by 0.46%.

Turkiye (responsible for 1.13%) increased its emissions by 4.15%.

USA (responsible for 11.11%) increased its emissions by 2.23%.

Vietnam (responsible for 1.01%) increased its emissions by 2.75%.

These numbers matter. There are many ways of examining the data, but the overwhelming impression that is created is that for all the money spent on emissions reductions, for all the COPs, for all the effort being put into Net Zero by the UK (leading the world, remember), the project still isn’t going as planned.

Smaller, but not insignificant emitters

One of the things we are told repeatedly by those who insist that the UK must maintain its Net Zero targets, is that the many countries with emissions below 1% of the global total individually, can collectively make a significant difference. Ergo, we in the UK must keep at it, because unless we do so, the other smaller players will lose heart, and together we can go a long way towards undermining the GHG increases that are taking place elsewhere. Let’s take a look, then, at countries with emissions in 2025 representing between 0.2% and 1% of emissions (ignoring the UK and individual EU member countries already mentioned above):

Increases

Pakistan (responsible for 0.98%) increased its emissions by 2.4%.

Iraq (responsible for 0.79%) increased its emissions by 2.71%.

Egypt (responsible for 0.72%) increased its emissions by 2.24%.

Nigeria (responsible for 0.68%) increased its emissions by 4.8%.

Malaysia (responsible for 0.62%) increased its emissions by 2.11%.

Kazakhstan (responsible for 0.66%) increased its emissions by 5.02%.

United Arab Emirates (responsible for 0.52%) increased its emissions by 3.83%.

Algeria (responsible for 0.5%) increased its emissions by 2.15%.

Bangladesh (responsible for 0.45%) increased its emissions by 5.97%.

Uzbekistan (responsible for 0.4%) increased its emissions by 1.85%.

Ethiopia (responsible for 0.35%) increased its emissions by 2.22%.

Kuwait (responsible for 0.33%) increased its emissions by 2.04%.

Venezuela (responsible for 0.33%) increased its emissions by 1.52%.

Qatar (responsible for 0.31%) increased its emissions by 1.08%.

Oman (responsible for 0.26%) increased its emissions by 4.09%.

Myanmar/Burma (responsible for 0.25%) increased its emissions by 1.58%.

Sudan and South Sudan (responsible for 0.24%) increased their emissions by 0.58%.

Turkmenistan (responsible for 0.23%) increased its emissions by 7.05%.

Libya (responsible for 0.22%) increased its emissions by 9.22%.

Chile (responsible for 0.21%) increased its emissions by 3.24%.

Morocco (responsible for 0.21%) increased its emissions by 3.28%.

Kenya (responsible for 0.2%) increased its emissions by 2.48%.

Reductions

South Africa (responsible for 0.96%) reduced its emissions by 1.89%.

Thailand (responsible for 0.74%) reduced its emissions by 1.17%.

Argentina (responsible for 0.65%) reduced its emissions by 0.05%.

Taiwan (responsible for 0.56%) reduced its emissions by 0.73%.

Phillipines (responsible for 0.5%) reduced its emissions by 2.38%.

Ukraine (responsible for 0.39%) reduced its emissions by 1.04%. I wonder if this takes into account the emissions associated with defending itself against Russia’s war of aggression?

Colombia (responsible for 0.38%) reduced its emissions by 4.83%.

Mongolia (responsible for 0.2%) reduced its emissions by 0.67%.

Threshold

In case people suspect me of cherry-picking the threshold at which I consider the emissions of individual countries to be sufficiently significant to merit inclusion, I would point out that Chad (responsible for 0.19%) of global GHG emissions in 2025) also increased its year on year emissions by 3.97%; Peru (responsible for 0.19%) increased its emissions by 0.57%; and Tanzania (responsible for 0.19%) increased its emissions by 3.17%; while North Korea (responsible for 0.17% reduced its emissions by 0.71%, but it’s not really a country we should seek to emulate.

Is the UK leading the mid-level emitters?

What have we learned about the trends among the smaller but not insignificant emitters? First of all, that eight (or nine, if we include North Korea) reduced their emissions between 2024 and 2025. However, 22 countries at this level (or 25, if we include the countries at 0.19%) increased their emissions. Broadly those increasing emissions at this level outnumber those reducing emissions by 3:1.

But there’s more. Of those reducing emissions, only two did so by more than 2%. Of those increasing their emissions, 17 did so by more than 2% (in four cases by more than 5%) while only five did so by less than 2%. Of the three countries each emitting 0.19% of the global total, two increased their emissions by more than 3%.

Conclusion

The UK’s attempt to lead the way, whether globally, or among the small-mid level emitters, is failing abysmally. Hope and fine words are all very well, but there is no arguing with facts.