In Piddling in the Wind I criticised the failure of the UK government to get anywhere near its targets for heat pump installations, despite the huge amounts of money being thrown at this objective. This can now be seen to stand as a metaphor for a much bigger failure. Earlier today Robin Guenier drew the attention of Clisceppers to the fact that the European Commission’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) has just been updated. The latest version can be found here.

Of course, unlike the abject failure of the UK government’s heat pump roll-out, the government can at least claim that it is making progress in reducing the country’s territorial emissions, albeit at terrible cost (financial, economic and environmental). The manifest failure, however, is with regard to the oft-repeated claims that we in the UK must lead the way, because others will follow. As is evidenced by the updated data, this claim is patently false.

Robin quite rightly drew attention in his brief comment to the main findings, thus:

Compared with 2023 global GHG emissions increased by 665.6 Mt. China, India, Russia and Indonesia all increased their emissions, with Indonesia having the largest increase in relative terms (+ 5.0%) and India the largest in absolute terms (164.8 Mt).

Note also how Brazil, the host of COP30 and the world’s sixth biggest emitter, has continued to increase emissions.

However, there is much more to note.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, global GHG emissions have followed a largely upward trajectory, interrupted only in 2009 and 2020 by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. This rise is largely attributed to higher fossil CO₂ emissions from China, India, and other emerging economies. In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3% or 665 Mt CO2eq. In the same year, the UK’s emissions fell by 13.9 Mton CO2eq, so as John Cullen pointed out UK reduction is just 2% of the global annual increase.

18 countries and regions currently contribute more than 1% to the total global greenhouse gas emissions. Of these, only five of them decreased their GHG emissions in 2024, namely the EU27 (by 1.8%), Japan (2.8%), Mexico, Germany (1.6%), and South Korea (0.3%), while the others all increased their emissions. That reference to five making reductions is EDGAR’s, not mine – it seems a little like double-counting to include Germany in addition to the EU.

China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia and Indonesia were the world’s six largest GHG emitters in 2024. Among these top emitters, in 2024 China, USA, India, Russia and Indonesia increased their emissions compared to 2023, with Indonesia having the largest increase in relative terms (nearly + 5%) and India the largest absolute increase by 164.8 Mt CO2eq (which was a 3.9% increase). Vietnam’s emissions increased by 7.6%, Turkey’s by 2.7%, South Africa’s by 2.6%, Saudi Arabia’s by 2.5%, Russia’s by 2.5%, China’s by 0.8% and the USA’s by 0.4%.

Most of the world’s largest emitters did witness per capita reductions in 2024, though here too Saudi Arabia’s figures are moving the wrong way, with a 1.2% increase, and South Africa saw a 2% increase, while Vietnam also saw an increase of 0.5%. Interestingly, Canada’s emissions increased, on a per capita basis, by 0.2%. Where now, Mr Carney?

China

China’s GHG emissions in 2024 were around four times larger than in 1990 and in 2024 accounted for 29.2% of global GHG emissions (in 1990, this share was 11.5%). This increase is mainly due to increased economic activity. Arguably, this does help to make the case that while the EU and UK in particular have been reducing their territorial emissions (in the EU’s case its share of global emissions is down from 15.1% in 1990 to 5.9% in 2024), they have, at least in part, simply exported their emissions to places like China, along with manufacturing capacity, jobs and wealth. In China, per-capita GHG emissions in 2024 were 10.8 t CO2eq/cap, while GHG emission per GDP PPP amounted to 0.462 t CO2eq/kUSD, having the second highest GHG intensity among top emitting economies.

United Kingdom

GHG emissions Mt CO2eq/yr have reduced steadily since 1990, from 778.131 to 386.696. Over the same time period, the UK’s official population has increased from 57.183 million to 68.745 million. Thus, GHG emissions per capita in the UK have reduced by a greater percentage than the percentage reduction in emissions generally – with per capita emissions falling from 13.608t CO2eq/cap/yr in 1990 to 5.625 in 2024.

Over the same time period, China’s per capita emissions have increased from 3.167 to 10.812t CO2eq/cap/yr. In other words, in just 35 years, the per capita situation has completely flipped between the UK and China. In 1990, the UK’s per capita emissions were more than four times those of China. In 2024, China’s were almost twice those of the UK. In fact, China’s per capita emissions are only around 20% lower in 2024 than were the UK’s in 1990. And they (China) are very much going in the “wrong” direction.

Whilst on the subject of per capita emissions, it’s worth noting that at 5.625t CO2eq/cap/yr, the UK’s figure is now significantly below the global average of 6.562, a figure which is currently holding pretty steady, having reduced very marginally from 6.564 in 2015.

As for global emissions, the UK’s 2024 figure of 386.696Mt CO2eq/yr compared to the global total of 53206.401Mt CO2eq/yr, amounts to just 0.7268% of that global total.

Conclusions

First and foremost, I urge readers to take a look at the up-dated EDGAR database. There is a wealth of information in there for anyone interested in this sort of thing, and I have barely scratched the surface here.

Secondly, it really should be obvious by now that despite the UK’s stunning success in reducing its territorial greenhouse gas emissions, in terms of both absolute and per capita figures (but at what cost?), we’re not leading the rest of the world anywhere. The Paris Climate Agreement is failing badly in its own terms, either because so many of its signatories are effectively exempt from any requirement to reduce their emissions, or because those who are supposed to reduce their emissions are largely ignoring that “obligation”. (I put “obligation” in inverted commas, because the Paris Agreement contains no enforcement mechanism, and no obviously mandatory obligations, though the recent advisory decision of the International Court of Justice might eventually lead to different conclusions in that regard).

The irony is that the more successful the UK is in reducing its territorial emissions, the more irrelevant we become to attempts to persuade the rest of the world to follow our path. Our emissions are now insignificant in the scheme of things. It really is time we in the UK ceased forging ahead through increasingly difficult and expensive territory, and took a pause for breath. If the rest of the world follows, then perhaps (just perhaps) all well and good, but unless and until that happens, then truly we are embarked on a fool’s errand.