There is no doubt that it has been exceptionally and unusually hot in parts of the south and east of England over the last few days and pleasantly warm elsewhere in the UK. Yes, the heat has been unusual, but is it – as the Guardian claims – “unprecedented”?

Such a claim sits a little uneasily, to my mind, with the fact that the previous high temperature record for the UK in May was set in 1922 and repeated in 1944. It should also be borne in mind that May started off distinctly chilly (following on from a cold April), and also that the heat isn’t going to last. Here in Cumbria I don’t think we exceeded 30C at all, and the forecast for where I live is for a distinctly unsettled period for at least the next fortnight, with a high temperature of 18C next Saturday steadily declining to highs of 16C, 15C and 14C well into June, with rain and wind also in the forecast as the anticyclone gives way to low pressure.

Is this unprecedented? Fortunately the UK Met Office makes historic daily weather reports and monthly summaries available on its website, and for the month of May 1922 they can be found here. The monthly summary for 1922 is as follows (temperatures, of course, are expressed in Fahrenheit):

Variable weather, especially with regard to temperature is frequently experienced in May and it happens occasionally, as for example in 1920, that the hottest day of the whole year occurs in this month. The first few days of May 1922 were cold, as had been the greater part of April, but by the end of the week the thermometerhad risen considerably and on the 8^th touched 80 [almost 27C] at Benson and S. Farnborough. At Kew the maximum was 77 [25C], a record for the early part of month. Subsequently high pressure to the northwestward of the British Isles caused a renewal of coll weather for a few days about the 10^th-13^th.

The most notable feature, however, was the hot spell which began about the 20^th in the Southeast. On four days in succession (21^st-24^th) temperature rose above 80 at Kew and in three cases out of the four the maximum value, 86 [30C], was above any previously recorded there in May since 1871: 84 [29C] was registered on the 30^th in 1895. The latter month with its abundant sunshine and scanty rainfall bore considerable resemblance to the one just ended…..

Sound familiar? We can follow the continuing story by looking at the Met Office reports for June 1922. The monthly summary tells us:

The very warm weather which had prevailed during the last part of May was maintained at the beginning of June. Maxima above 80 were recorded in many places on the 1^st and again in some districts on the 2^nd but in the West nothwesterly winds in the rear of a depression near the Hebrides caused a marked drop in temperature. At Birr Castle, for instance, the highest reading on the 2^nd was 58 [c. 14.5C] as against 78 [c. 25.5C] on the 1^st.

After reasonable warmth the temperature fell by 20 degrees fahrenheit over much of the country, including London.

The interesting thing to note about these old weather reports is the matter-of-fact tone, the calmly factual narrative. No propaganda, no hype. Unusually high temperatures for the time of year are described as “very warm”. I wonder what Met Office employees from a century ago would make of the hysterical outpourings from their employer today?

The other record-breaking year was 1944, famous for the bad weather that delayed the D-Day invasion from 5^th to 6^th June. The Met Office report for May can be read here.

It was a month of remarkable extremes, with the monthly report noting:

Mean temperature showed no marked deviations from the average, but the range of the temperature extremes was exceptional, as much as 57F at Croydon.

If that happened today, it would probably be described as climate whiplash, and cited as unequivocal proof of the “climate crisis”.

For present purposes, however, the high temperatures late in the month are what concern us here:

…warmer air from a continental anticyclone began to affect the South and maximum temperatures reaching 74F were reported. This anticyclone dominated the southern half of the country until the 29^th when a shallow trough moved in and high pressure became established in the North until the end of the month. It became very hot in the South on the 29^th and a number of stations recorded the highest ever for the month of May. It reached 91F [c. 32.8C] in central London and night minima for 29^th-30^th did not fall below 62F [c. 16.7C] at some places. It remained very warm. Thunderstorm activity developed during the 29^th and continued until the end of the month in various places in England and Wales….

Does that also sound familiar? Of course, as we all know from history, the weather broke down after that, just as it is forecast to do this year.

So what? It was hotter this year, and that’s because of climate change, or so we’re told. But is it? In the first place, thermometers are much more sensitive nowadays, and are more capable of recording temporary upward blips in temperature. Secondly, today’s records just keep being set at airports and other inappropriate locations and the Met Office has (in my view rightly) come in for a lot of criticism for the fact that so many of its weather stations (where the record temperatures are being recorded) are not of WMO class 1 or 2, and therefore have considerable uncertainty regarding their accuracy. Then there’s the compounding effect of the Urban Heat Island which might – or might well not – be properly allowed for when the new record temperatures are claimed.

I’m not arguing that the last few days haven’t been unusually hot. Of course they have. I’m not arguing that record temperatures have definitely not been set (though taking the above factors into account, perhaps they haven’t been). I am suggesting that the media hysteria we’ve just witnessed has been unjustified and claims that the recent weather and high temperatures are “unprecedented” are profoundly inaccurate and misleading. Instead of being scared to death, I for one am happy that I’ve finally been able to turn the central heating off, especially in view of the ever-increasing price of energy, due in no small part to the government’s energy policy.

Postscript

I highly recommend reading a couple of other articles on the recent high temperatures. First, at Paul Homewood’s website, here. Secondly, Jaime Jessop’s recent Substack article here.