No Ifs, No Buts, the UK Met Office Has Decided That It Will be 39C Tomorrow and This Will Most Likely Be Due To Climate Change

Posted on by Jaime JessopIn UK Met Office, Uncategorized1 Minute Read

 

 

 

 

Does this sound like a straightforward no nonsense neutral weather forecast from a state funded meteorological organisation? It looks and sounds to me like the formerly highly regarded Meteorological Office of Great Britain is suffering from the same entrenched political/ideological bias as our state funded BBC.

Update 25th July 19 03.

The record set in 2003 still stands. Nowhere in the country got anywhere near 39C. 38.1C in Cambridge was the max. The Met Office now look very silly indeed and lamely try to excuse their failure by blaming a ‘little bit of cloud’ – i.e. the weather. Plonkers.

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52 Comments

  1. Perhaps they are suffering from corporate heat stroke.
    But don’t blame the BBC, they get their forecasts from the EU (wonder if Bojo will stop this and demand good old British weather from good old British forecasters.)

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I wonder if it would increase the dignity and integrity of the Met Office if the entire climate section were hived off to be entirely separate, perhaps as some kind of Institute for the Study and Promotion of Climate Alarms. Then the weather forecasters could operate free of hot models, after a bit of under-the-bonnet fixing, and try to reduce the lazy, path of least regret habit, of erring on the worst case side when troublesome weather is seen approaching. They could leave the scare the masses as often as possible stuff to their erstwhile colleagues.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Pingback: No Ifs, No Buts, the UK Met Office Has Decided That It Will be 39C Tomorrow and This Will Most Likely Be Due To Climate Change – Has everyone lost their mind?

  6. The BBC were initially circumspect about Thursday:

    Then just two hours later, they tweeted this:

    I wonder what changed?

    Liked by 1 person

  7. BBC Weather gets its info from MeteoGroup originally set up in the Netherlands but now owned by he Thyssen-Bornemisza Group. This provides weather information across the EU, hence my slight terminological inexactitude that the BBC gets its weather info from the EU.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Yay, go for it Mark! How to say not very much at all in 3 mins 17 secs. What he did say which is important to note is that British summers have warmed by about 0.7C since 1910 and the warmest summer day has increased by a similar corresponding amount. So if tomorrow we break the current maximum temperature by 0.5C and ‘smash’ the current maximum July temperature by 2.3C, it’s hard to see how the magnitude of these changes can in any way be related to climate change, but you can bet your granny’s inheritance that this is the message that will be conveyed.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Zeke Hausfather provided a very useful tweet on heat extremes. Has the mean only increased or has the mean and variance increased, which would lead to much more hot weather and more record breaking weather? The mean has increased, but it’s less certain if the variance has.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. A greater density of weather stations will tend to give higher figures, even when the heatwaves are not getting more severe, such as the one from Belgium today at an airbase, probably not there 50 years ago.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Did anyone here Stotty on Radio 4 this morning? He’s more of a politician than a scientist. When asked one question, answer a different one. After his usual claims, he was asked if the hot weather was going to break tomorrow, and went back to his previous mantra about heat waves and warming. He did something similar last year.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Stott is at the vanguard of the Met Office’s unscientific and misjudged attempt to irreversibly link extreme weather, especially hot weather, with man-made climate change in the public consciousness. That tweet above asking whether the current heatwave is connected to climate change goes to a Met Office web page where they state:

    “More recently, the summer of 2018 was the joint warmest on record for the UK as a whole and the hottest ever for England. The Met Office have shown that human-induced climate change made the 2018 record-breaking UK summer temperatures about 30 times more likely than it would have been naturally.”

    Pure lies and deception. No, the Met Office haven’t shown that, because the Stott attribution study which supposedly demonstrates it is not peer reviewed or even published! You can’t show something by hiding it from public view and not bothering to submit it to review by the scientific community. Saying it’s so at the Katowice climate jolly just doesn’t cut it I’m afraid. 2018 also was NOT the hottest summer “ever” in England. In the long running Central England database: 2018 was the fifth warmest summer, beaten soundly by 1976 in first place, closely followed by 1826, then 1995 and 2003.

    Yet we have pig-tailed little Gretas addressing the UN and Marxist geography professors telling gullible taxpaying British citizens about the “indisputable science” of the climate crisis which we should all “get behind” in order to save the human race and the planet. Dear God, how did we ever get to this juncture in the long history of human intellectual achievement?

    Liked by 2 people

  14. If we get to 3pm and it doesn’t look like Heathrow is getting anywhere near breaking the 38.5C record, I can just imagine some manager at the Met Office saying:

    ‘For God’s sake, somebody get on the blower to Heathrow and tell them to divert a few more take offs next to the weather station, or if that doesn’t work, someone get round there with the bloody barbecue!’ 🙂

    Liked by 2 people

  17. Oh dear. That would spoil the party. Hopefully, they’ll miss London. 🙂

    Like

  18. The Heller Principal in action:
    Red color coding in meteorology means the weather event is caused by “climate change”.
    Thanks for the great example.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. John Shade , thanks. You are on to something good.
    Truth in advertising and the potential for lucrative hyping calls for spinning off the climate fear mongering parts of our media, academia and especially politics.

    Like

  20. Met Office are happy.

    If it doesn’t cloud over, the ‘hottest evah’ temperature will probably be recorded (at Heathrow at least).

    The climate hysterics will then go into overdrive.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. It’s about 24-25C and a bit cloudy here in south-west Scotland today. Which bit of so-called man-made climate change is that supposed to be due to?

    Liked by 2 people

  22. According to information / misinformation theorising, the problem with high profile / bold announcements lacking an underlying high confidence such as per the head post here, is that even if they turn out not to be fulfilled they will still leave an impression behind that the eventual reality won’t entirely correct (even if such correction is actually attempted at the same level of profile). Systemic announcements of this type (rather than, in the context of a generic forecast that still guides people appropriately regarding their daily activities, just waiting for the precise reality figure), are a significant bias mechanism.

    Liked by 2 people

  25. Oh, the disappointment! It’s palpable!

    ‘It could have been hotter, if only that pesky cloud hadn’t covered the Sun!’

    Bloody idiots. They deserve all the ridicule they get for predicting record high temperatures and spreading fake news about the connection to climate change.

    Like

  26. Vine on Channel5
    \\ Are you serious?
    @channel5_tv has changed its schedule so the pompous @theJeremyVine
    and a bunch of randoms can discuss the temperature?
    Has the world ended?
    No – just a tad warmer than usual and, guess what, it won’t last! #nannystate #GrowUp //

    Vine “record breaking temperatures” “record breaking temperatures”
    Duh it’s not record breaking temperatures you fool.
    Your opening statement was it was the *second* hottest day on record

    …
    Actually to me the *hottest day” would be the 24 hour period with the hottest average temperature over the whole country
    …NOT a day where you check check pick one location crossing a line for one moment.

    Liked by 2 people

  28. Headline news on the BBC
    hottest july day evay (in some parts of the UK) since records began.
    so hot, health expert advises drinking 3/5? times your usual water intake (and piss in the bushes or the sea I presume).

    everybody interviewed seemed to be enjoying the “heatwave” but the BEEB still pumps out the MMGW mantra every time.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. Climate kooks are compleat maroons.
    They have corrupted meteorology so much it is no longer really fit for purpose.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. The BBC and Met Office seem to have treated yesterday as if it was an attempt at a sporting record. As for those pesky clouds coming along and spoiling things, I have it on good authority that Jos Butler would have scored the fastest one day century ever the other day if he hadn’t got out for 98.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. The language used by the BBC weatherman was very interesting this morning. Apparently, by falling 0.4C short, we ‘came within a whisker’ of beating the all-time record. And yet, if the temperatures had been exceeded by 0.4C you can be sure the record would have been ‘smashed’.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. It may be of interest that the 38.1 deg C value recorded yesterday, July 25th, in Cambridge has been seen before in the UK back in Victorian times. 38.1 deg C was apparently recorded on July 22nd 1868 at Tonbridge in Kent, according to a Times columnist writing in 2006 about British July temperature records, but that particular temperature data has been deleted from the official record in more recent years.

    Times articles are behind a paywall (including historical articles), so I’m using a blog post from 2006 which quotes most of the Times article:

    http://dailyduck.blogspot.com/2006/07/but-what-effect-will-these-record.html

    “This, supposedly, was the highest temperature recorded in Britain in July. But that is only if you discount the 38.1C recorded in Tonbridge on July 22, 1868. This record is faithfully listed in my dog-eared copy of The English Climate by H. H. Lamb, of the Meteorological Office, (published 1954) but has now been struck from the records on the basis that the thermometer and its housing is not now considered to have conformed to modern standards. Of course it didn’t: it was built in the 1860s, that’s why.

    The real reason the 1868 heatwave has been wiped from the historical record, of course, is that it is highly inconvenient for the global warming lobby. How can you scare people into thinking that every hot summer day constitutes yet more evidence of man-made meteorological doom when actually it was even more sizzling back on that balmy day in Tonbridge when gentlemen were briefly driven to remove their stove-pipe hats? Logically, of course, if you strike out one Victorian record you should strike them all out.”

    Liked by 1 person

  33. LOL Kestrel, I was thinking along similar lines: ‘It could have been a goal, if only the ball had hit the back of the net instead of the cross bar!’

    “Apparently, by falling 0.4C short, we ‘came within a whisker’ of beating the all-time record. And yet, if the temperatures had been exceeded by 0.4C you can be sure the record would have been ‘smashed’.”

    Exactly John, their bias is just so transparent, it’s embarrassing. They’re so driven, I don’t even think they are consciously aware of it half the time.

    Dave, thanks for the link. It’s almost certain that temperatures of 38C or above have occurred previously, but, either they have not been officially recorded, or they have been scrubbed from the record. As I pointed out above, as far as summers go, 1976 is still the warmest in 360 years in Central England, 1826 the second warmest, 1995 third and the iconic ‘climate changed’ summers of 2003 and 2018 in 4th and 5th places. despite the flashpan heat of the last few days, I doubt whether 2019 will feature anywhere in the top 10, unless August remains above average. So it would appear that English summers haven’t read the rule book on man-made climate change.

    Like

  34. Haha. It just gets more absurd by the minute. The Met office have ‘found’ the new UK maximum temperature record – which they were so sure must be there – lurking in Cambridge Botanical gardens. It’s beyond pathetic now.

    It’s a Cambridge University weather station not a Met Office one. Cambridge University, you know, the same top notch academic institution where they set up the Climate Repair Centre looking at ways to refreeze the poles. That place. Of course we can trust their weather station data.

    We are talking about a potential new record for the highest temperature recorded in the UK and we therefore need to thoroughly investigate the observation with our partners at Cambridge University Botanic Garden through statistical analysis and by visiting, to check the site and equipment and ensure there are no potential problems.”

    Like

  36. Fascinating weather phenomenon Stew. It’s a pity that idiots can’t view any unusual weather phenomenon now without thinking that it must be caused by a non-existent climate emergency.

    Like

  39. Seen 1707 & 1808 pop up on the twitter and also discussed by Gavsweathervids;

    1513 The Dry Wednesday of 21 July must have been one of the hottest days of the millennium. There were many heat-related deaths.

    1556 The summer of 1556 was one of the best of the last six centuries.

    1707 8 July “Hot Tuesday” – a very hot day, perhaps one of the hottest days recorded in Britain.

    1757 Hot (18.4).

    1783 Very hot (18.8).

    1808 There was a memorable heatwave in the middle of the month, particularly affecting the east of the countrry. The spell included “Hot Wednesday”: 13 July might have been hotter than any day of the twentieth century. Estimates suggest that it reached 100F, and might well have reached 40C (105F) in places in southern England. There were many heat-related deaths. It was an extraordinary heatwave, concluding with intense thunderstorms on St. Swithins Day. A fireball was noted travelling through Gloucester Cathedral, and destroyed one of the pinnacles at the West End. The 15th saw what was probably the most severe hailstorm to affect the southwest; a 95 km swath was damaged between Bath and Bristol, with 70 mm hailstones, touching perhaps 100 mm in places, causing great damage. Indeed, some in Somerset were reported to be over a foot long (at 333 mm). It was a hot month overall: at 18.4C CET, there would not be a better one until 1921.

    1826 Part of a very hot summer, probably nearly as good as 1976.

    https://www.trevorharley.com/weather-july.html

    To throw in another source for some of the dates;

    July 1707
    “Hot Tuesday”: many heat-wave deaths in England (temperature details not known .. but must have been ‘notable’!!)

    July 1753
    A notably warm month by the CET record (starts 1659). The value of 18.4degC is roughly +2.5C on the all-series average, and placed it in the ‘top-10’ Julys in terms of warmth.

    July 1783
    July 1783 was a notably warm month (in the CET series), not only for July but for any summer month. The value of 18.8degC represents an anomaly of +2.9C over the all-series mean, placing it second warmest in the July lists, and also making it the fourth warmest any named month in that series (which starts in 1659.) [ The other summer months, June and August, were above-average, but by half-a-degree or less, so nothing special. ]
    July 1808 1. Notably warm month (using the CET series since 1659). With a value of 18.4degC, it is in the ‘top-10’ of such-named months for warmth. In particular, there was a hot spell from the 12th to the 15th, with a peak around the 13th/14th, when the CET daily temperature (i.e. average of 24hr maximum & minimum) climbed to just over 24degC. Studies since that date have shown that individual day maxima were well above 25degC (possibly to 28degC) in the West of England; up to (almost certainly over) 32degC in London & possibly as high as 34degC in Kingston upon Hull (ER Yorkshire): however caution is required with all these values due to the differing instruments, exposure, accuracy of recording etc. It was undoubtedly a very hot spell though, as deaths (people & animals) from heat exhaustion were recorded, particularly from the agricultural areas in the east and north of England. One report at the time (from farm records in the eastern Fens), says that the temperature in the shade near London was 96 (degF), which converts to just over 35degC: the same reference notes that this spell is the “hottest day ever known in Eng’d … the Hot Sunday in 1790 was only 83 Deg”. [ NB: August 1808 also reasonably warm, with anomaly circa + 1degC. ]
    2. 13th: ‘Hot Wednesday’: shade temperatures 33 to 35degC in E. and SE England, 37degC (99degF) reported in Suffolk (exposure & instrument details unknown . . see 1. above).

    1825
    July 1825 was exceptionally dry by the EWP series: with a value of just 8.2 mm (~12% modern LTA), this is the driest July in the England & Wales Precipitation [EWP] series (up to 2014 update), and the 10th driest any month in that series.
    > With the extended drought (see above), it is not surprising that this month also experienced a hot spell; we only have records for the London & Home Counties area, but in central London (Somerset House) there was a sequence of days from the 12th to 20th (9 days) with the maximum temperature >=80degF (>=27degC), with the highest value on the 19th at 89degF (~32degC). At Datchet (then Buckinghamshire, now Berkshire, near Windsor), on four days (15th, 17th, 18th & 19th) the temperature in a ‘shaded’ area of a garden was recorded between 90 and 96degF (latter is ~36degC); these values are probably too high by modern standards but give an idea of the intensity of the heat. [Phil Trans Royal Society]

    1826 (Summer)
    June, July and August: persistently warm weather by CET series. For these three months, the figure was 17.6degC, placing it as the second hottest summer in that series (began 1659) after 1976.
    The period mid-June to mid-July using the CET series, was one (of two) hottest 30-day periods in that series, with a value of 19.7degC. (See also 1976)

    https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/en/archive/20180703112215/https://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1800_1849.htm

    What temperatures would have been recorded then had we the upto the minute network we have now 🤔

    Liked by 3 people

  40. By many accounts and the reanalysis (based on observations) 1540-41 was ferocious;

    the heat wave was ferocious. The number of days with temperatures over 30°C (86°F) was at least three times as great as usual. Wells and springs dried up that had never done so before. A Swiss chronicler reported that not a drop of water could be found even a metre and a half below the beds of many streambeds. Even some major rivers became small enough to be crossed on foot. In 2003 the volume of water in the Elbe river was about half the usual amount; the researchers estimate that in 1540 it was only atenth of the usual amount. Middle Europe as a whole is estimated to have received only about a third as much precipitation as usual

    https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/extreme-weather-megadrought-of-1540-much-worse-than-2003/

    Again one wonders what temperature records that sequence of events would have smashed had we the network of today?

    Liked by 2 people

  41. Hahaha, too funny. The BBC caught ‘celebrating’ the imminent ‘smashing’ of Britain’s hottest evah recorded temperature – which didn’t happen – and ‘serious’ eco-loonies get upset about it. Now they all look like idiots. Meanwhile, the Met Office scrambles frantically to try and salvage something from the wreckage. The Green blob is devouring itself.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7289085/Environmentalists-slam-breathtakingly-stupid-BBC-tweet-record-breaking-heatwave.html

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Craig, I’m sure it’s completely coincidental that the ferocious European heatwave and catastrophic drought of 1540-41 occurred near the end of the Sporer Minimum (1460-1550), at or near the lowest point of solar activity. After the Maunder Minimum, the Sporer was the most pronounced period of low solar activity which occurred during the Little Ice Age.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. Bob Ward has his BEEB free sound bit/LSE promotional spot today.
    “we need to prepare for ever higher temps in the future he say’s”

    climate porn to the Max (to be fair every tv channel is pushing the same)

    Liked by 1 person

  44. Rain all day here and 17 degrees cooler. The climate crisis has definitely buggered off. I’m just so glad I didn’t sell the raincoat and wellies to put towards an air conditioning unit. The end is not nigh; the smell of two wet dogs is nigh.

    Like

  45. I think the CO2 molecules are probably a bit overwhelmed with all the publicity the Beeb have been giving them, and have decided to retreat and keep a low profile. Perhaps they will end up in bottles of BBC fizz. Trebles all round! 😉

    Liked by 2 people

  46. I see WUWT have a post on Bob Ward – https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/26/lse-we-need-to-name-deadly-climate-heatwaves-over-80f-28c/

    which links to – http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/is-it-time-to-start-naming-deadly-heatwaves/

    in his piece Bob complains – “Almost all of the media have neglected to warn the public that heatwaves are becoming more common because of climate change”

    wonder what media he reads/watches?

    Liked by 1 person

  49. We also gave a new temperature record in The Netherlands, the last one was set in 1944.

    The new record was set on the grounds of airport Gilze-Rijen on sandy soil where the groundwater for years has been depleted by agriculture. So definitely a case of man-made warming.

    Liked by 1 person

  50. Maximum temperature 40.7 degrees on 25 july 2019 in the south of The Netherlands.
    Note that the red colour is nicely lining up with groundwater depleted sandy soils in the netherlands

    Liked by 1 person

  52. Pingback: One Day Heatwave at Cambridge Botanical Gardens Made 20 Times More Likely By Climate Change, Experts Say | Climate Scepticism

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