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UK Climate Crisis Flip – June Now Expected To Be Wettest On Record

 

A couple of weeks is a long time in the British climate. In late May we were being told to expect a 3 month heatwave, possibly even the ‘hottest summer ever’. The Sun, on May 22nd said:

The Weather Outlook today released its forecast for the next three months, predicting “above average” temperatures and “below average rainfall” across June, July and August.

It warned: “At this stage a summer with above average temperatures is thought probable.

“The signal for rainfall is weak, but it is slightly in favour of drier than average conditions over the three month period.

Speaking to the Sun Online, the Met Office said early predictions had suggested “drier, warmer weather” than normal for the season.

Meteorologist Martin Bowles said: “There are broad suggestions that there is a slightly greater chance of dry and warm weather than average.

Well here we are, 10 days into the glorious, dry sunny summer heatwave and the outlook has changed ever so slightly.

With British temperatures recently rivalling the Mediterranean, it may have seemed that summer had firmly arrived. 

But June is now odds on to be the wettest on record, with yellow weather warnings issued for the coming week and the country set to be deluged by heavy rain. 

England is expected to see four days of rain, as forecasters at the Met Office warn of potential floods across the south east.

Meteorologists claimed that 20 hours of continual downpours could be seen on Monday.

But I am willing to bet my house, my car and my entire wardrobe that a couple of weeks is no time at all in Climate Change Cloud Cuckoo Land and that, if we do get a record wet June, this will be evidence of the ongoing climate emergency just as surely as a very hot June would have been irrefutable proof of ‘climate breakdown’.

So, just for the record, in anticipation of the coming storm of climate crisis attributions to the British weather, here are the facts on wet Junes. In the UK series, going back to 1910, June 2007 and June 2012 were the wettest on record, by some measure (we were told then that washout summers were the ‘new normal’ due to climate change). The third wettest was way back in 1912. Then 2018 happened and hot, dry, wildfire-ravaged summers were the new ‘new normal’. So I guess we’ll see a welcome return for the old ‘new normal’ now if June goes completely pear-shaped.

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The longer running England and wales Precipitation (EWP) record – going back to 1766 – reveals a more interesting picture. June 2012 is still the wettest month on record, but very close behind is June 1860. June 1768 comes in third, 2007 in fourth place, then most of the other really wet Junes occur during the 19th century. So the pattern in England and Wales appears to be (if we get a record wet June this year), very wet Junes in the early 21st century and very wet Junes in the mid 19th century – when the CO2 induced climate crisis was supposedly only just beginning. I doubt that will stop the converts proclaiming that the UK June 2019 floods (if they happen) were due to climate change, further strengthening the case for net zero carbon by 2050, naturally (or should I say, anthropogenically).

 

Update:

The graph of precipitation for June in England and Wales since 1766 is reproduced below. It’s immediately obvious that the mid 19th century Junes were very wet, the 1920-70s were on average much drier and June has become very wet again in the 21st century. Looks suspiciously cyclical to me.

56 thoughts on “UK Climate Crisis Flip – June Now Expected To Be Wettest On Record

  1. Fat lady and all that
    The news cycle runs about 7 days behind the real world so a couple of days ago the Look North was reporting dry river fears pointing the camera at a fenland drain ..that I suspect is sluice-gate controlled anyway.
    June 6th “Low river levels prompt call for Lincolnshire’s farmers to curb water use”

    Liked by 2 people

  2. On a couple of recent progs the BBC aired aired top water expert Feargal Sharkey
    3 hours ago he tweeted

    Why we need a hosepipe ban.
    In the foreground is the River Mimram, a chalk stream in Herts, due to over abstraction & drought it is currently running at just 53% of flows.</blockquoteNot just BBC either

    Feargal just retweeted this
    Times : Rivers will dry up and die without hosepipe ban, say wildlife groups

    Yesterday he tweeted
    "What a statistic, 52% of the entire length of chalk streams in the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty are now dry! "
    That is a cherrypicked area of course, but I also immediately suspected the data could be out of date.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. It appears that perhaps the best lens to clearly see much of what the climate consensus does is Orwellian.
    Which is sad, but appropriate, on this 70th annoying anniversary of “1984”.
    The Ministry of Truth is of course served enthusiastically by the BBC, with The Met keeping those working hard in the Memory Hole quite busy.
    “Oceania has always been in drought”.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Perhaps Feargal is right to crack on about extraction because in the long term, variability in rainfall across England and Wales shows very little trend. Rising population and water usage is obviously the main factor involved in chalk streams and rivers drying up in SE and Eastern England during not unusual periods of drought.

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  5. Jaime Jaime, you are my Perfect Cousin

    Much Too Late
    “You just can’t stop believing,
    you are driving me insane
    .. You are trying to change my mind
    ..I tell you it’s much too late”

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Oh the vid is supposed to start at second 38
    ..and the lyric is “Too late to change my mind
    now girl, .I tell you it’s much too late, much too late”

    About 3 years ago the libmob did shout ‘my god the chalk steams are at low level’
    which was true
    but significant rain did come , and they did get topped up again.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. 2005:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4091068.stm
    “Huge swathes of England could take on a Mediterranean look within 50 years as native woodlands are threatened by warmer, drier summers, say scientists. Olive groves, vines and sunflower fields could become hallmarks of the landscape in South-East England as global warming changes conditions. Experts also say the English country garden is unlikely to survive in the South East in its present form.
    Rolling lawns and herbaceous borders may be ousted by palms and eucalyptus.”

    CET summer trend is flat for the last 30 years. 1995 was 17.37C, 2018 was 17.27C. 1989- 16.47C, 2017-16.13C.
    Met office ranked 10 hottest UK summers:
    1976 hottest
    1826
    1995
    2003
    2018
    2006
    1846
    1983
    1947
    1933

    CET annual temp in 1989 was 10.5C, 30 years on, in 2018 it was 10.68C. In 2010 it dipped to 8.86C. During that 30 year period, CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 55.58 ppm.

    We are clearly missing out on the Climate Emergency and we should be very concerned that perhaps we don’t have the right sort of CO2 in the UK atmosphere, just like we had the wrong sort of snow a few years ago: http://www.rail.co.uk/rail-news/2013/wrong-type-of-snow/. Our CO2 is not working as it should and something must be done.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Don’t yer think these faux predictions climatique are getting quite, how d’say assez ennuyeux? You would think, and hope, that those making such easily refutable predictions would just get tired of being so constantly wrong that they would restrict their prognostications to long term efforts that cannot be so easily be shown to be a tas de merde. Oh! some have. Quelle surprise!

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  9. In the Graun, just 12 days ago, a letter written by Linda Lennard of St Albans which the editors deemed worthy of prominent publication:

    Paul Brown is spot-on in his criticism of how weather forecasts and presenters ignore the continuing drought (Weatherwatch, 28 May). It is as if they are in a parallel universe where the climate emergency does not exist. Wildlife, gardeners, farmers and all who care about the environment are desperate for proper rainfall, especially in central and southern England.

    Having complained about this on numerous occasions to the BBC, I have given up as nothing changes. Presenters continue to welcome hot and dry weather, and often refer disparagingly to “the risk of rain”. Most forecasts give the impression that broadcasters do not understand the climate emergency, or they don’t care.

    Enough rain for you now my dear? You can call off the climate emergency now, you absolute plank.

    Liked by 3 people

  10. Jaime you forget, the only good weather is Camelot weather.
    Now rain weather-warnings that currently infest the east and south-east will be upgraded to be part of the climate emergency (for this week at least).
    The ease and rapidity with which previous climate change “evidence” and predictions can be forgotten, replaced or ignored is simply amazing. Perhaps you (and they) are right: most have the attention span of a gnat (or are planks).

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  11. “This heavy summer rainfall is exactly in line with our predictions of what we should expect more of in the future because of climate change,” said Peter Stott of the Met Office.

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  12. I believe I’ve mentioned this at an earlier time here, but in earlier warmer interglacials and warmer parts of the Holocene, developing soils commonly contained carbonate concretions (= calcrete or caliche soils) indicative of much drier summers. In today’s climate, summers are too wet to form those types of soils.
    To suggest that warmer climates will be accompanied by wetter summers (as Peter Stott is apparently doing) therefore ignores physical evidence from the past. Warmer climates should have dryer summers.

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  13. That was meant to be a joke, Alan, that having said it was more likely to be warm and dry, they would now say cold and wet was just what they expected. I don’t think Peter Stott has said that — yet.

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  14. Not far off the truth Paul:

    The news could be disconcerting for fans of the British summer. Because when it comes to global warming, we can forget the jolly predictions of Jeremy Clarkson and his ilk of a Mediterranean climate in which we lounge among the olive groves of Yorkshire sipping a fine Scottish champagne. The truth is likely to be much duller, and much nastier – and we have already had a taste of it. “We will see lots more floods, droughts, such as we’ve had this year in the UK,” says Peter Stott, leader of the climate change monitoring and attribution team at the Met Office.

    “It is not just a perception – we have had a run of relatively poor summers,” says Stott.

    Stott says: “We are much more confident about attributing [weather effects] to climate change. This is all adding up to a stronger picture of human influence on the climate.”

    The article then goes on to explain how the warming of the Arctic (caused by us of course) may have shifted the jet stream, so we can expect cooler, wetter summers in the UK in future.

    For the British Isles, the melting Arctic could hold the key to whether the weather is changing under human impacts. Recent poor summers have been strongly linked by scientists to a change in the usual position of the jet stream, a weather system that normally lies in high latitudes during the northern hemisphere summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/aug/08/shape-of-british-summers-to-come

    Liked by 1 person

  15. The water levels in chalk streams in the Chilterns have certainly been a bit low in recent years but Feargal Sharkey’s timing was a bit unfortunate. The streams’ levels are rising rapidly. Eg, here’s the Mimram, a stream he was particularly worried about:

    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/7336

    With all the rain that’s forecast, I wouldn’t be surprised if the level gets above 80cm by the the end of the week.

    *

    One of several Chiltern chalk streams NGOs says that the area has the largest per capita water use in the UK. If that’s true, why is it true? It’s not a hugely agricultural area. Do people who live near High Wycombe have big lush gardens that require a lot of sprinkling? Are they very thirsty? (Chilternites don’t drink bottled water imported from Ushuaia. That’s Cotswoldites, no?)

    Liked by 2 people

  16. Paul wrote about the absurd flip-flopping of climate scientists attributing dreary wet summers to climate change and then hot, dry summers to climate change in August last year, when the mania associated with the heatwave then was at its height. Peter Stott pioneered extreme weather attribution with his study of the European heatwave of 2003, then along came the run of wetter summers after 2006, so obviously a more inclusive theory was needed – and Jennifer Francis’ theory of jet stream modification by Arctic warming (for which there is no evidence) provided the ideal go to pseudo-scientific ally in the war against giving nature credit for having anything to with extreme weather in the UK,

    https://cliscep.com/2018/08/01/the-shape-of-british-summers-to-come/

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  17. Pingback: UK Climate Crisis Flip – June Now Expected To Be Wettest On Record – Has everyone lost their mind?

  18. LOL. On this very subject (modification of the jet stream by Arctic warming) just yesterday in the Graun (where else?) – heatwaves in the US are caused by ice melting in Hudson Bay except when they’re not!

    Dagmar Budikova, a climatologist at Illinois State University, and colleagues used satellite data to measure the ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice in the Hudson Bay region since 1979 and compared this with heatwave frequency across the US. Their results, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, show that summer heatwaves were far more common across the southern US in the years when the Hudson Bay basin experienced a warm spring and reduced sea ice.

    That’s because these conditions reduce the north-south temperature contrast, resulting in slacker winds and a loopier jet stream: the perfect breeding ground for lingering high-pressure systems and summer heatwaves over the southern plains.

    Spot the ‘correlation is causation’ error there?

    But then comes the get out clause:

    “This, however, does not mean that the southern US will not see heatwaves, just not those triggered by sea ice in the Hudson Bay area,” explains Budikova.

    In Climate Change Cloud Cuckoo Land, you can have your cake and you can stuff your face with it happily ever after.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. On planet Hawkins, all this wet weather is made worse because it is so warm at the moment!

    … and Ben is off on one of his twitter rants…

    Liked by 3 people

  20. Paul,

    Jeez, I do miss not being able to rumble these climate charlatans on Twitter! I hope someone called him out for this nonsense.

    (Oh good, I see Ben and others have. That is a seriously dumb tweet)

    Maybe it’s just as well I’m not on Twitter. Snowflake Hawkins blocked Ben for that excellent series of tweets. A real scientist would have engaged his criticism, publicly. They’re losing, and they know it. All they have is bullshit and the public are becoming ever more sceptical and scathing of their absurd attempts to communicate that bullshit. It might convince fresh out of University XR rebels, but the rest of us recognise a scam running on empty when we see it.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Pingback: UK Climate Crisis Flip - The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

  22. If I recall correctly, the UK rainfall record goes back further than 1910 but the MetO could not be bothered to digitise it – possibly because it contains stuff they would rather we didn’t know.

    We are currently in a solar minimum where so far this year 97 days have been spotless (60%) and the current stretch is 23 days. Last year there were 221 spotless days (61%). When solar minimum occurs the troposphere shrinks which causes the jetstream pattern to change. With the DMI showing increased ice in the Arctic and glaciers strangely growing on Greenland there seems to be a shortage of heat up there.

    I wasn’t aware of any farmers in the South East being concerned about a drought. The fields all look nice and green, grazing of sheep and cattle going well, silage cuts being made, arable fields have sprouted up and some crops such as barley are well up. In fact South East Farmer is commenting on the threat to wheat crops caused by the wet weather in spreading infections.

    The Friday at the South of England Show was a bit of a washout and on Saturday many were commenting about how effing cold it was given that it was quite windy. All change from last year? Er, no not really as it was not super hot last year either and the Saxon and Viking villagers camping there said it was very cold at night.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Gerry, I’ve just got back from walking the dogs in the Lincolnshire Fens and I’ve known many more pleasant days in winter than this day in summer. I got totally drenched and chilled to the bone. A real Little Ice Age summer day here in 21st century Eastern England methinks. May temperature was very close to the long term (1981-2010) mean, June so far is positively Baltic, so I don’t know where all this overheated air is coming from to evaporate all this water which has been chucking it down as cold rain continuously since yesterday morning. It certainly wasn’t sub tropical out there! Floods and washout cool summers were common during the LIA apparently.

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  24. Stotty was quoted as saying this back in 2007;

    “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/3301412/Man-made-global-warming-increases-rainfall.html

    Which is a bit of a kitchen sink approach. One can only imagine the frothing and spittle that would erupt in the rush to get the quotes out should the late Victorian period* ever repeat itself;

    1872-1879

    These eight years began with the wettest calendar year in the EWP series (see above), and culminated in the second wettest summer in that set; the ‘growing-to-harvest’ periods (May – September) of 1872, 1875, 1877, 1878 & 1879 all experienced well-above average rainfall – that of 1879 being some 160% above the ‘all-series’ mean. Summer-time temperatures were also either ‘average’ or depressed, and again, in 1879 the CET value of 13.7degC was some 1.5degC below the all-series average, a considerable amount. It is no surprise then to find that British agriculture entered a period of depression (some have called it a ‘crisis’), beginning in 1875 and not recovering until 1884; the downturn was aggravated by foreign wars and imbalance in trade (depressed home prices), coupled to unsustainable land rents.

    1884-1902

    DRY LATE VICTORIAN PHASE)
    For these 19 years, 15 had annual rainfall totals below the all-series average, with 5 of those years (1884, 1887, 1893, 1898 & 1902) notably dry. 1887 specifically was the third driest year in the EWP series (q.v.), and the other four had anomalies of 85% or lower. Notably low river flows recorded in parts of southern Britain, particularly over the chalks of SE England. It should be noted that this era coincided with rapid growth in urban areas, both in areal extent and population density”

    https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/en/archive/20180703113159/https://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1850_1899.htm

    * although this dates to before the AGW signal of the 1950s, recent cutting edge attempts to blame the Romans for cooling means probabilistically a single human breaking wind, somewhere, sometime, could be responsible for just about anything provided there is funding. Therefore I want you all to panic at how this June is behaving and hand over your cash and liberties forthwith.

    https://papundits.wordpress.com/2019/06/07/global-warming-boosted-the-roman-empire-then-global-cooling-weakened-it/

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Craig, good find on drought and deluge during the late Victorian era. Proves that our climate is highly variable, always has been. Shows that SE England chalk streams drying up, perhaps exacerbated by increased water use due to population growth, is nothing new.

    As regards the absurd claims of the Romans affecting climate in Europe via anthropogenic aerosols, it’s probably total pants of course, but even if true, it would imply that sensitivity to solar forcing is greater than supposed, because it means that, without pesky Roman aerosols from burning, the climate in Europe would have become even warmer during Roman times!

    Here we drive the global aerosol-enabled climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA with land use maps and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions from the Roman Empire at its apogee to quantify the effect of humans on regional climate.

    Our results suggest that the influence of Roman Era anthropogenic aerosol emissions on European climate may have been as important as that of deforestation and other forms of land use. Our model may overestimate aerosol-effective radiative forcing, however, and our results are very sensitive to the inferred seasonal timing of agricultural burning practices and natural aerosol emissions over land (wildfire emissions and biogenic emissions).

    https://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2019-56/

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  26. top water expert Feargal Sharkey….got a gong in the Queen’s Birthday Honours. Climate establishment fared well, with gongs for Corinne Le Quere and Richard Betts, plus a few scattered around in Defra.

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  27. Stott says: “We are much more confident about attributing [weather effects] to climate change.

    When you are a Professor in Detection and Attribution at the University of Exeter and a Science Fellow in Attribution at the Met Office Hadley Centre for Science and Services, then your job isn’t worth a light if you don’t detect and attribute any weather event to “climate change”.

    “Scientists say”, is the order of the day.

    https://emps.exeter.ac.uk/mathematics/staff/pas217#SCuqmZypm8wiegMD.99

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  28. Dennis, when you’re insane, it’s a natural progression to reward insanity, thus reinforcing and institutionalising the insanity by formally legitimising and recognising it, not as insanity but as something commendable, something worthy of public honour. This flight of fancy can never come down slowly and carefully now; it will crash and burn and do much damage in the process.

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  29. Alan, you would not want to venture out onto the MOD bombing range areas when the red flags are up during the week! I do worry for the animals out there. Lots of seals. I’m sure the RAF avoid them as far as possible.

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  30. Jaime. You’ve taken me too literally. I was picturing the Wash as some alien monster (been watching too many B movies).
    Anyway, my garden lawn demonstrates just how much rain we’ve had in nearby Norfolk. Just above the soil, between the grass leaves, has grown a deep green rubbery mat, which I believe is composed of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae). I haven’t seen this for fully ten metres, I suspect the soil is this year, fully waterlogged.

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  31. Alan, we came very close to surface flooding here – even though we live right by a drainage ditch. The water was accumulating very fast after heavy rain but the weather has turned drier now, just in the nick of time.

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  32. Jaime thanks. I’ve seen Twitter activists try to blame humans for the RWP before but not in the scientific literature, however it’s not surprising as I’ve seen similar to explain away the LIA of late. Using the aerosol blame game as a variable doesn’t make sense to me as the explosion of world population (and all the associated burning we do) surely would have made the earth either a hothouse or a snowball by now!

    The Late Victorian period is replete with examples that would herald the apocalypse today. WW1 is also quite analogous to our recent wet winters (2013-15) with the winters of 1914-16 coming in with some hefty totals (1914-15 being 2nd after 2013-14). I’ve seen reports at the time blaming the munitions (dust) for the perturbed weather and even in the midst of war the extremes of variability were notable. For example the 243 mm in 13 hours on 28 June 1917. Symons’s Meteorological Magazine July 1917 wrote;

    Within the last five years we have had to chronicle one-day rains unprecedented in their localities for Norfolk, on August 25th, 1912, when the largest amount recorded on a rainfall day was 7-31 in., at Brundall (making with •78 on the previous day a total of 8-09 in in 24 hours) ; for the neighbourhood of Doncaster on September 17th, 1913, when 6-06 in. was recorded at the Doncaster Pumping station, and for East Inverness-shire, on September 25th, 1915, where 7-06 in. was measured at Dalcross. But if no mistake has been made (and preliminary investigations lead us to think that there is none), 9-84 in., the greatest one day’s fall yet recorded in the British Isles, was measured at Sexeys’ School, Bruton, on June 28th

    https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/download/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile%7C370745bf-c090-4499

    This was preceded 12 days earlier by a storm that dropped 4.65in. (118 mm) on Campden Hill in just over 2 hours. Bear in mind that the guages at the time overflowed and Bruton was on lower ground than Cumbria which surpassed this record).

    This of course was around the time of Passchendale, renowned for the mud and rain. The Australian War Memorial site wrote;

    According to Robin Prior and Trevor Wilson in Passchendaele: the untold story (p 97), during August 1917, 127 mm of rain fell in Flanders, which was double the normal average for that month.  October also proved another very wet month, with 30 mm of rain falling in just the five-day period 4-9 October (pp 126, 159).
    […]
    in the afternoon of 4 October, right after the Broodseinde operation had been completed (it was over by noon), the weather broke and the rain set in, quickly turning the devastated battlefield into a quagmire.  In these conditions it was impossible to drag forward enough artillery and ammunition to maintain such strong support.  So the troops that attacked in the wet after 4 October noticed a dramatic drop-off in supporting artillery fire to the point where at times it was barely noticeable.  Another pitiful result was the greatly increased difficulty of evacuating the wounded.
    […]
    Interestingly, at this point Field Marshal Sir Douglas Haig acknowledged the weather and terrain problems, telling war correspondents on 11 October:

    ‘It was simply the mud which defeated us on Tuesday [9 October].  The men did splendidly to get through it as they did.  But the Flanders mud, as you know, is not a new invention.  It has a name in history – it has defeated other armies before this one…’ (quoted in Bean, Official History, Vol IV, p 908).
    […]
    For the Germans the onset of rain was a Heaven-sent.  Indeed Crown Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria, the Field Marshal in command of the entire northern sector of the Western Front (i.e. that principally opposing the British and Commonwealth forces), made a relieved note in his diary;

    12 October 1917

    ‘Witterungsumschlag.  Erfreulicherweise Regen, unser wirksamster bundesgenosse.’

    (trans. Sudden change of weather.  Most fortunate rain, our most effective ally).

    https://www.awm.gov.au/articles/blog/rain-mud-the-ypres-passchendaele-offensive

    Commenters at the time noted the weather being ‘stuck’ in patterns for weeks at a time.

    Liked by 1 person

  33. The following is also quite relevant to the current summer switch we’ve had from last year coming after the glorious summer of 1911 (I’ve highlighted a bit at the end that was highlighted in the original);

    Summer 1911

    Notably WARM (& for many a SUNNY – see below) summer; high PRESSURE was near or over the British Isles for many weeks at a time, with southern areas especially favoured. One of the top 7 or so WARMEST of the 20th century, and just inside the ‘top-10’ all-series summers (as at 2013). Using the CET series (began in 1659), the values for the three ‘standard’ summer months of June, July & August (with all-series anomalies) were: 14.5 (+0.2), 18.2 (+2.3), 18.2 degC(+2.6C). The July value placed that month just outside the ‘top-10’ for that month, but that for August is ranked about 6th or 7th: certainly in the ‘top-10’ in this very long series! All the more remarkable, as the 50-years 1900-1949 contained only 4 VERY WARM summers, compared for example with 7 in the period 1950-1999.

    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE on 9th August at Raunds (Northamptonshire) and Canterbury (Kent) 36.7degC (98degF/converted?). Until the Augusts of 1990 & 2003, the highest known / accepted in UK).
    July 1911 was a spectacularly SUNNY (& DRY) month. There was an average of over 10 hours of bright sunshine (as recorded by the Campbell-Stokes recorder [CSR]) over much of southern England. 384 hours of bright SUNSHINE were recorded at Eastbourne and Hastings, East Sussex during this month, and these are thought to be the highest sunshine totals recorded anywhere for any month in the UK. (NB: in July, not June!). For the SE of England as a whole, with something like 300-350 hours of BRIGHT SUNSHINE, this month (with July 2006) is regarded as the SUNNIEST month (any month) on record, though comparison with late 20th century / 21st century figures are difficult due to changing instrumentation.

    Summer 1911 overall was DRY, with large areas of central-southern England, the south Midlands and parts of eastern Scotland having less than 50% of long-term RAINFALL. The summer included an exceptionally DRY July – in the ‘top-5’ of dry such-named months in the EWP series. A longer period (April to September) was also notably DRY, at least over England, where approximately <70% of the long-term average RAINFALL fell. (EWP)

    Summer 1912

    As might be expected given the excessive RAIN (see below), TEMPERATURES & SUNSHINE values were distinctly disappointing. Because the mean CET for June & July were not too far from the all-series average, the final all-season mean of 14.3degC was not a ‘record-breaker’, coming roughly 30th COLDEST in the list. What made this summer stand out was the persistent COLD of August: the CET value was 12.9degC (-2.7C on all-series mean), and as such was the COLDEST such-named month in that long series. Although we don’t have homogeneous SUNSHINE series for the time (across the UK), individual stations give a flavour of the DULL weather. At Kew Observatory for example, all three months had below-average sunshine, with July at 76% and August at 58% of the (then) long-term values. However, other summers of the time (e.g. 1909 & 1913) also had equally low (or lower) aggregate totals over these three months. [ According to an article in ‘Weather’ (see reference), the weather (and hence the temperature levels) were possibly affected by a veil of high-altitude volcanic dust etc., from an Alaskan volcano that erupted in early June of this year. ] (Ref: ‘Weather’/July2011/Kendon & Prior & CET)
    Notably WET for the months of June, July & August. 410 mm in the EWP series ~ 200% of modern-day averages. The WETTEST such defined summer in the EWP series (as of 2013). Over twice the average amount of RAIN fell in a broad swathe from Cornwall to Norfolk, with >250% in places. However, London & the Home Counties, though still generally receiving well above-average RAINFALL, ‘only’ achieved anomalies around 125-150%.
    > August 1912 was EXCEPTIONALLY WET with 193 mm of RAIN, the wettest such-named month in the EWP series. Severe FLOODING occurred across many parts of east & central England. (EWP)
    [ It is worth emphasising that this exceptionally WET, COOL & DULL summer came a year after one of the most glorious summers in anyones record! Doom-mongers in the climate-change community need to be aware of these historic precedents. ]

    Liked by 1 person

  34. As a Country Bumpkin from the Chalk South Downs in Hampshire, I would confirm that 2019 HAS been dry and that farmers and gardeners were hoping for rain.

    Using a simple “garden centre” rain gauge, we have had about 4 inches 100mm of rain in the last 2 weeks, but some of those days of rain only produced 5mm of rain. We MAY have had rates of rain that exceeded an inch per hour, but have not had more than 2 inches in a 24 hour period.

    The flooding 5 years ago followed 6(?) depressions rolling over the UK in a month. The flooding of 2003 was similar. June 2019 has been 2 weather systems that both lingered a bit.

    The UK Met Office may disagree, but their adjusted hindsight is always better than their foresight. We pay them to FORECAST don’t we?

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  35. The latest BBC news pics on the wettest ever event (so far this year), show a river bursting it’s banks & flooding the houses in the area.

    the odd/not explained thing to me is this river seems to be higher than the surrounding area & has manmade banks(I assume).

    feel sorry for the people affected & hope they get the help they need.

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  36. DFHunter. Not to comment upon the particular river you observed, but the phenomenon of flood water levels in rivers being higher than the surrounding adjacent land is common, one might almost say the usual phenomenon.
    Rivers in spate flow fast in their channels, but upon exceeding the limits of the river banks the water slows down abruptly beyond them as it spreads out over a wider surface. Sediment carried by the water is dumped at the place where the slowdown occurs and so the river banks gain a layer of sediment and flood after flood progressively rises. These raised river banks (or levees) may sometimes become raised up metres above the surrounding floodplain. Once breached, however, river water flows onto the lower floodplain and cannot drain back into the river because of the intervening higher ground levees. This commonly happens on the Somerset Levels and areal shots reveal widespread flooding with only the higher ground levees above water.
    Artificial water courses, like dykes and other drainage ditches, have artificially built levees, and river banks in urban settings are usually artificially raised. In the Fens, roads are built upon the levees and driving along them one can clearly see water levels are substantially above surrounding land levels even at normal (non flooding) times.

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  37. @Alan – thanks for the reply to my comment & explanation why the river banks are higher than surrounding area (by natural river flow/flood effect).

    your comment – “Sediment carried by the water is dumped at the place where the slowdown occurs and so the river banks gain a layer of sediment and flood after flood progressively rises”
    makes sense to me now, so this river must be prone to flooding over the years.

    found a video of the levee burst event – https://www.skegnessstandard.co.uk/news/video-shocking-scene-as-river-bursts-its-banks-at-thorpe-st-peter-1-8962288
    “Here is the shocking scene as the River Steeping burst its bank at Thorpe St Peter.
    It was captured on video by Tony Willoughby, who said he was on the Wainfleet side of the river as water gushed across fields.”

    ps. from Scotland & never seen this levee effect on any rivers, hence my question/interest.

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  38. Re the river Steeping megaflood at Wainfleet
    Our neighbour used to work for the drainage board
    he says they watched in on TV and could see that the first breach was a clean cut
    and that to him looked to be cos it must have been a previous repair.
    He said that they have a lot of trouble getting bank repairs to settle.
    He then went off on a tangent about vermin patrols apparently animals dig holes into the banks and weaken them, so you have to inspect and control the numbers.
    He reckons beavers are a particular problem, but would n’t expect them to be in that river.
    Of course we know the modern EA are quite often incompetent , so I expect that was the root of the problem , that they did poor repairs and haven’t been checking the state of the banks.

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  39. Typing : badger Wainfleet … into Twitter search shows a lot
    \\ Locals blaming badger sets in dyke walls and lack of flood defence. Environment Agency budget for whole of UK just 1.2 billion.//

    \\ he bank is exactly where the badgers were relocated from Wainfleet. The whole thing is a big cock up. This was preventable. The EAchave been warned by locals now this. No-one listens. //

    from 2016 to Oct 2017 this activist tweet was posted about 40 times
    “League Against Cruel Sports and ELDC: Stop the possible culling of Badgers in Wainfleet”

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  40. Stew, I don’t know about blaming a few badgers for a major breach on the River Steeping Banks. I’ve walked the banks and sea defences for years around these parts and I can tell you that most of the tops of the banks are riddled with mole hills – many thousands of them. For some reason, moles just love digging along sea and river defences. I don’t know if this is enough to undermine the structure, but it certainly can’t help I would have thought. I’ve seen very few badger setts.

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  41. Well, I won’t be losing my house, my car or my wardrobe. The Graun (of course) more or less pins the blame for the recent very wet weather on global warming:

    “The warming Arctic and loss of sea ice has meant that the jet stream does not flow strongly, as it once did, from west to east, pushing weather systems steadily across our shores and onwards into the continent. These days, because there is no longer a stark temperature difference between the Arctic and the Atlantic, the jet stream meanders, causing weather extremes by pushing cold air south and warm air far to the north. This can leave giant high-pressure systems, or in our case last week, a large low, trapped and static between these loops.”

    A new front line has opened up in the climate wars. Alarmists are using ‘science’ to create a new consensus narrative that a warming Arctic creates a more wavy jet stream pattern, which in turn produces more extreme weather in mid-latitudes. They will not stop until this becomes an article of faith because, as demonstrated by my post yesterday, ‘proving’ that extreme weather and the immediate impacts caused by extreme weather can be attributed to man-made climate change is ‘actionable information’, which can be used to promote policy. A flurry of research papers linking Arctic warming to jet stream patterns has recently emerged. I’m sure more will follow. Science is being corrupted to serve politics because actual empirical, observational evidence of a long term trend in jet stream patterns attributable to anthropogenically-induced Arctic warming is elusive or non-existent.

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  42. @ALAN KENDAL says:
    15 Jun 19 at 5:54 am

    Alan – if you’re the person I think you are, someone very close to you taught me exactly that in the late 1980s in Newcastle.

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  43. DWALTON1967 I’m not surprised, both my wife (who taught you) and I were both sedimentologists and we would have sung from the same hymn-sheet. It’s sometimes a very small world.

    Liked by 2 people

  44. The whole of Hull/Lincs region Look North was live from Wainfleet
    – The most interesting voice was the exasperated head of the Lindsey drainage board
    (Lindsey Marsh Drainage Board )
    He said that they had being trying to get the EA to do a proper job for the last 20 years and particularly had continually warned for the last 8 years that the banks would be breached
    Yet the EA just kept ignoring or implying that the cost would be not worth it considering the property values.A decision not to dredge was mentioned in a 2015 letter he waved.

    He also said that far from being marvellous the EA’s response to the breach was clueless.
    He said that there are things you immediately do if there is a breach, but instead the EA woman had said “yes we’ll monitor it”
    The badger issue was mentioned in passing by yr presenter

    – The minister was there with her cronies ..marching in around in her green vest in the sunshine mouthing PR platitudes like “£120m has been spent in this constituency on flood protection works.

    – The police guy was all PR, everyone had done a great job , he said particularly the BBC
    Here’s the link but the prog gets wiped in 24 hours (ie by 7pm Tuesday)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00065lt/look-north-east-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire-evening-news-17062019

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  45. Here we go again. Another 20 hours of rain. No let up for Lincolnshire. We could do with some of that nice warm GHG-heated air which Marvel insists sucks moisture out of the atmosphere!

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