A recent study by Jonathan Bamber et al solicited expert opinion regarding the possibilities for Sea Level Rise (SLR) resulting from Antarctic ice sheet collapse. The study’s methodology included a technique known as ‘Structured Expert Judgement’ to improve the reliability of the conclusions drawn by aggregating the opinions within the expert community. It has concluded … Continue reading
Tag Archives: uncertainty
Tales of the Unexpected
Gather round boys and girls, because I want to tell you a story. It is a tale of two fearsome warriors engaged in a battle for your ecological soul. The first was an esteemed expert in all matters climatological and psychological. For the purposes of the tale, I will call him Stephan Lewandowsky. The second … Continue reading
Uncertainty – No one’s Friend and Everyone’s Bitch
Given that reliable calculations of risk and uncertainty are so central to the issue of climate change, I am struck by the diverse assessments of incertitude that climatologists, environmentalists, and climate activists are prepared to espouse under the broad aegis of climate alarmism. Firstly, we have the likes of Ben Santer. Here is someone … Continue reading
Regrets, I’ve had a few, but then again…
I was doing a failure mode effects analysis on my past life the other day and I can tell you the results were not reassuring. They seemed to be suggesting that my curriculum vitae owed a lot to a faulty career choice in my formative years. Instead of plumping for the obvious attractions of an … Continue reading
