The Healey burger, I mean budget, has just dropped.

Not so long ago, a fellow vegetarian went to a famous burger chain with a group of colleagues red in tooth, and asked if there was a vegetarian option. Yes, came the reply. It’s two pieces of bread with nothing between them.

Well, at least now there will be a little bit of gherkin for the vegetarian to enjoy in their nothing burger.

What is Jit ranting about this time?

Well, the energy price cap, as usual. There were two announcements on this in the nothing burger: £100 off bills for those of us in homes of council tax bands A to D, and a prolongation of the VAT holiday on electricity bills.

Naturally, these measures are paid for by other people. And some of the same people. According to Policy Engine’s analysis, and I do not vouch for its accuracy, 19.7 million of England’s households will receive the cash (80% of households). Most of the recipients will be paying tax to the government in order for the government to give some of it back. Is it pointless? Well, yes. The VAT cut extension should, of course, be made permanent. The Policy Engine analysis puts the value of the VAT cut at £24 in tax year ’26-’27. [Calculated as the October to March VAT foregone.]

So, the saving, although of course it is not a saving at all but a transfer, is a princely £124 per household. Good. Now let’s inspect the latest predictions for the energy price cap. October to December, i.e. currently, the annual price cap is £1723. Various estimates exist as to its likely value in January 2027.

The Cornwall Insight estimate, from 28 September, was for a rise from £1723 to £1999.

British Gas’s prediction, made on 15th October, was for the energy price cap come January to be £2185.

EDF, updated yesterday, says £2189 (and further north come April). [Yuk. Just had to strip out a tracking link about 200 characters long from that URL.]

So, the saving of £124, which is no saving at all, results, on net, in higher bills of £300, at least according to present estimates.

I thought I heard something about fixed-price contracts for generators in receipt of ROCs… yes, I did. The consultation on this is here. I can’t promise to read it, because there are a number of earlier consultations that I promised myself that I would read, and singularly failed in that regard. Is it a move that could reduce bills? I doubt it. Filed, pro tem, under Nero/violin.