In Could Do Better I made reference to the series of reports on the state of the UK climate, eight to that point in time, but now nine, following the recent publication of the report for 2022. A study of the reports reveals, over a period of nine years, UK weather varying from year to year. However, it doesn’t seem to matter what the weather was in any given year, it is always consistent with “climate change”, that short-hand for the climate going to hell in a hand-cart, and it all being our fault.
The report for 2014 offers us an Executive Summary, the main points of which are as follows:
The warmest year on record, in the UK, England, Wales and Scotland since 1910, and for Central England since 1659, as documented by the Central England Temperature series (CET). Pretty dramatic stuff.
Not surprisingly, the fewest air and ground frosts on record in the UK, in a series going back to 1961.
The second highest growing degree days in the UK in a series going back to 1960.
The fourth wettest year in the UK in records going back to 1910.
2013/14 winter was the wettest in England and Wales in a series going back to 1766.
2014 was not a snowy year for the UK as a whole.
2014 was marginally sunnier than average for England and Wales, but duller for Scotland.
It’s perhaps worth looking at the rainfall data in a little more detail:
A large contribution to the annual rainfall total came from the very wet weather during winter storms in January and February. Winter 2013/14 was exceptionally wet and stormy and this was easily the wettest winter in both the UK series from 1910 and the longer running England and Wales Precipitation series from 1766. For much of Scotland and south-east England rainfall totals were double the long-term average, and some locations in the south-east received 75% of a years’ rainfall in just 2 months. The winter storms brought the most significant flooding of the calendar year in January and February, with the Somerset Levels and Thames valley worst affected. In general it was the persistence of the storms rather than the intensity of any individual event which led to the prolonged flooding in these areas. In comparison, with only a few notable exceptions the weather during the rest of the year was relatively benign. May, October and November were rather wetter than average and August especially so across Northern Scotland. It was the wettest August in Northern Scotland from 1910, largely as a result of rainfall from ex-hurricane Bertha which brought extensive flooding across parts of north-east Scotland from 10th to 12th August. Heavy thunderstorms at times during the summer also caused some localised flash-flooding, for example across East Anglia in July. However, in contrast high pressure dominated during most of September and large swathes of the country received less than 20% of the monthly average rainfall; it was the driest September in the UK series.
Just as with the summer of 1976, which sticks in the memory because it was so unusual, I also remember the very wet winter of 2013/14 and the fact that it was very mild, both of which also struck me at the time as being unusual.
So far so good. One might say that the first in the series of nine (to date) annual reports on the state of the UK climate perfectly illustrates the impact of man-made climate change. A very warm year overall, a very wet and stormy winter, an unusually intense storm in August, very little snow and the fewest recorded frosts. No surprise to read this in the Guardian:
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics (LSE), said the record temperatures in 2014 were “part of a pattern”, with most of the hottest and wettest years occurring since 2000.
“This is clear evidence of the impact of man-made climate change on the UK,” he said.
2015’s report, however, doesn’t play ball (except in respect of rainfall). Whereas 2014 was the warmest year on record, the year that followed was only the 16th warmest in the UK since 1910, and only the 25th warmest in the CET series. Air and ground frosts were below average, but “not exceptionally so for the year overall”. While 2014 saw the second highest growing degree days, 2015 was “near average”. It was the seventh wettest year, but with Storm Desmond in December, that isn’t surprising. Thanks to it, December 2015 was the wettest calendar month on record for the UK, and records were set during the storm for the highest 24 hour and 2-day rainfall totals. There was more snow than in 2014, though again it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. Winter and April were the sunniest on record (in a series going back to 1919), but November was the dullest on record. Despite Storm Desmond, the number of storms weren’t unusual, which was consistent with a lack of any trend over the previous four decades to any increase in storminess.
There is no doubt that Storm Desmond brought terrific amounts of rainfall. It’s worth commenting that as regards the records set, I remember that there was controversy in this regard, because the record was claimed by a rainfall gauge at Honister, which was relatively recently in situ. That fact alone rendered less significant (in the eyes of critics) the claim that it was a record in a rainfall data series going back to 1910.
In any event, undaunted by the lack of the warmth that we were told would be the result of climate change, the weather for 2015 was linked (albeit with a minor caveat) to climate change anyway, thanks to Storm Desmond:
Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist, says “It’s too early to say definitively whether climate change has made a contribution to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors.
“However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems, suggests there may be a link between climate change and record-breaking winter rainfall. Last month, we published a paper showing that for the same weather pattern, an extended period of extreme UK winter rainfall is now seven times more likely than in a world without human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
2016 also refused to warm up. For the UK as a whole it was the 13th warmest year since 1910, and the 22nd warmest in the CET series. Air and ground frosts were below average, but not exceptionally so. Growing degree days were described only as being “slightly above average”. Rainfall was slightly below average, though by something of a sleight of hand (referring to the winter of December 2015 – February 2016, which of course included Storm Desmond, which featured so prominently in the previous year’s report) the report managed to claim a second wettest winter since 1910. By contrast, October and December 2016 were “notably dry”. There were some snowfalls, but it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. It was slightly sunnier than average (104% of the 1981-2010 average), and the number and severity of storms were not unusual.
The reality is that it’s a struggle to link a year of largely normal weather to climate. It’s a good job that Storm Desmond can be counted as part of the 2015-16 winter, thus enabling the 2016 weather to be linked to climate change. In November 2018 an Environment Agency document titled “Climate change impacts and adaptation” managed to make the putative link:
England has recently experienced several extreme weather events. Heavy, prolonged rainfall, leading to significant floods in winter 2013 to 2014 and again in 2015 to 2016.
Back in 2018, statements about climate change tended to include caveats that I’m not sure we’ll see much if at all going forward, if this summer’s hysteria in the media is anything to go by. In November 2018, however, the Environment Agency put it like this:
It is not possible to say that human-induced climate change has caused these events, but they are consistent with the weather expected with a warming climate.
2017 saw a return of warmer weather. It was the 5th warmest in the UK (since 1910) and the 8th warmest in the long-running CET series. Air frosts were below average, and ground frosts were the fourth lowest in a series going back to 1961. Growing days were the fifth-equal highest (since 1960). Rainfall for the UK overall was 97% of the 1981–2010 average and 102% of the 1961–1990 average, so pretty average overall. However, June was the second-wettest June in Scotland since 1910.
Wales and lowland England saw significant snowfall on 10th December (the heaviest in over four years), but in a long-term context, it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. Sunshine for the UK overall was exactly 100% of the 1981–2010 average and 103% of the 1961–1990 average. There were seven named storms, but their number and severity weren’t unusual compared to recent decades.
In short, 2017 was a pretty average and undramatic year, with nothing – one might have thought – for people of alarm to be alarmed about.
And yet, despite the report saying categorically that “[t]here are no compelling trends in storminess as determined by maximum gust speeds from the UK wind network over the last four decades”, the Guardian still picked up on a report in 2017 commissioned by the Association of British Insurers, as a result of which it earnestly assured us:
The UK is set to reap the whirlwind of climate change with the huge damage caused by wind storms expected to increase sharply, according to new analysis.
Even the minimum global warming now expected – just 1.5C – is projected to raise the cost of windstorm destruction by more than a third in parts of the country. If climate change heats the world even further, broken roofs and damaged buildings are likely to increase by over 50% across a swathe of the nation.
The research shows all of the UK is on track to see rises in high winds except the south and south-west, with the greatest impact across the Midlands, Yorkshire and Northern Ireland. This is because the main storms that barrel in off the Atlantic are expected to move their track northwards as the planet warms, a phenomenon linked to the rapid melting being seen in the Arctic.
Never mind four decades of data, trust the models!
2018 was a bit less anodyne, it has to be said. It was the 7th warmest year in the UK since 1884, and the fourth warmest in the CET series. The summer was the UK’s equal-warmest and the warmest in the CET. Summer seems to have distorted the average for the year upwards, because winter wasn’t so warm. The number of air frosts were only slightly below average, and the number of ground frosts was only 11th-equal lowest (since 1961), and growing degree days were third-highest since 1960.
Rainfall for the UK overall was 92% of the 1981–2010 average and 96% of the 1961–1990 average. Whereas the summer of 2017 was wetter than usual, and especially so in Scotland in June, 2018 turned that on its head, with June 2018 being the driest in England since 1925.
2018, of course, was the year of the Beast From the East, and:
From late February to early March the UK experienced the most significant spell of widespread snow since December 2010.
I remember it well – it was horrendous. But we are told that although “2018 was a relatively snowy year in the context of the last two decades, [it was] near average compared to the last 60- years.”
2018 seemed determined to prove that climate change does not equate to consistent trends. What the UK weather did last year is no guide to what this year’s weather will be. Thus, 2018’s sunshine was 114% of average, making it the third sunniest year since 1929, while the three months from May to July represented the sunniest three months period for the UK on record.
There were ten named storms, but again they weren’t unusual in either their number or severity. And whatever the ABI and weather models said in 2017, we were again assured that “[t]here are no compelling trends in storminess as determined by maximum gust speeds from the UK wind network over the last five decades.”
Despite some climate scientists urging caution when discussing the polar vortex and the causes of the Beast From the East, the Guardian did its best to blame climate change:
Q: Snow in winter. That feels reassuringly normal. Does this mean the climate has fixed itself?
A: Unfortunately not. In fact, many scientists are concerned this is a prelude to more extreme and less predictable weather.
Q: What are they worried about?
A: In the past couple of weeks, there has been a heatwave in the sunless Arctic even though the northern polar region has not had any sunlight since October. At times it has been warmer than London, Paris or New York.
Q: What is so unusual about that? We have known for some time that the Arctic is warming.
A: Yes, but even veteran climatologists have been shocked by the recent temperature spike. Instead of the gradual year-by-year rise that they were expecting, there has been jolt upwards that experts have described as “crazy”, “weird”, “shocking” and “worrying”.
So the cold period in late winter and early spring was down to climate change, but so was the hot summer. Three years later an article appeared at the Met Office website which stated that “Research has shown climate change made the 2018 record-breaking UK summer temperatures about 30 times more likely than it would be naturally.”
2019 must have come as a disappointment to people of an alarmed persuasion, after the hot summer of 2018. In fact 2019 was only the 12th warmest year since 1884 and the 24th warmest in the CET series. But wait a minute, not so disappointing! If you can’t have a particularly hot year, at least there are some new records to be broken:
Four national UK high temperature records were set in 2019: a new all-time record (38.7°C), a new winter record (21.2°C), a new December record (18.7°C) and a new February minimum temperature record (13.9°C). No national low temperature records were set.
February 2019 was the second warmest February in the series from 1884 and the warmest February for daily maximum temperature.
2019 was also the sixth consecutive year when the number of air and ground frosts was below average, while ground frosts were the 10th lowest since 1961. Growing degree days were above average, but not exceptionally so.
Rainfall for the UK overall was 107% of the 1981–2010 average and 112% of the 1961–1990 average. England and Wales saw their fifth wettest autumn since 1766, though it was nothing like as wet as 2000, which remained the wettest autumn in the series.
Snow fell fairly wildly at the end of January and at the beginning of February, but (we are solemnly advised) “this was not unusual for the time of year.” Snow in winter, and it’s not unusual. At least climate change hasn’t messed with that yet!
Despite higher than average rainfall, sunshine for the UK overall was 105% of the 1981–2010 average and 109% of 1961–1990 average. There were six named storms, but it wasn’t a stormy year, and the lack of any trend towards increased storminess continued.
Nevertheless, some areas experienced flooding in June and some flash flooding in July. There was severe flooding in November (this was the year of the Fishlake floods). Despite that, northern and western Scotland were much drier than average.
Matt McGrath reported on the Fishlake floods for the BBC, and it was a very balanced article, pointing to the many factors behind the flooding, including not least the fact that it was built on a boggy fenland drained many years ago. Still the article ended inevitably like this:
Is what we’ve seen in Yorkshire a vision of the future?
“Yes it is a foretaste of the future,” said Dr Liz Sharp.
“It will happen in different places, we need to be expecting this to happen more often.”
Other experts agree that the future environment will be a challenge.
“We’re running behind with climate change – we need to really speed up if we are going to keep on top of the problems that are being exacerbated by the change in the climate,” said Prof Cloke.
And the February heat was duly reported with similar predictability by the Guardian:
Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the Met Office, said: “For a lot of people an opportunity to enjoy a nice day but for many others it was shocking to see values above 20C. Clearly having that warm weather record broken is, we think, largely to do with climate change, amplifying those warm events. That was widely recognised by the public.”
Previous Met Office studies show the man-made carbon emissions in the atmosphere made last summer’s heatwave 30 times more likely, and extremes of heat are now being recorded 10 times more often than extremes of cold.
2020 saw the Executive Summary commence with a hard-hitting opening statement:
The UK’s climate is changing. Recent decades have been warmer, wetter and sunnier than the 20th century.
2020 was third warmest, fifth wettest and eight sunniest on record for the UK. Air and ground frosts were the fourth lowest in the series. Growing degree days were the 8th highest since 1960.
It was also a wet year – “2020 was the UK’s fifth wettest year in a series from 1862, with 116% of the 1981–2010 average and 122% of the 1961–1990 average rainfall.” And yet, despite having the wettest February and the fifth wettest winter, it also had the fifth driest spring and the driest May on record in England (as I remember all too painfully while the Government imposed a covid lockdown on us). But the dry spring didn’t last:
3 October 2020 was one of the UK’s wettest days on record in a daily series from 1891, with storms Ciara and Dennis on 8th/15th February and storm Bella on 26th December also in the UK’s top 40 wettest days.
Snow was limited to upland and northern areas, and 2020 was one of the least snowy years on record.
2020 was the eighth sunniest year for the UK in a series from 1919, with 109% of the 1981–2010 average and 113% of 1961–1990 average sunshine hours. In particular, it was also the sunniest UK spring on record, with summer being sunnier than usual.
There were ten named storms, and despite heavy precipitation associated with some of them, it was still “a fairly typical year for storminess” and there was still no long-term trend towards more storminess.
This time the report itself starts talking about attributing events to climate change:
February 2020 was the UK’s fifth wettest calendar month on record, but in addition, with 242% of the 1981–2010 long-term average this was the highest rainfall anomaly of any calendar month in the UK series from 1862. Four out of the top-10 wettest months in both lists (actuals and anomalies) have occurred since 2000—with five of the top-10 wettest months by anomaly falling in February. Davies et al.,2021, describes winter 2019/2020—including February 2020—in more detail, including meteorological drivers, predictability and attribution to climate change.
Despite that, 2021 seems in many ways to have been unexceptional. I wrote about it in more detail in Could Do Better. It was only the 18th warmest year in the UK series since 1884. Winter and spring were colder than the 1991–2020 average. However, 2021 included the UK’s ninth warmest summer and equal-third warmest autumn on record in a series from 1884.
Rainfall was broadly average – 2021 rainfall was 95% of the 1991–2020 average and 102% of the 1961–1990 average – but with swings from month to month. 2021 saw the UK’s fifth driest April and second wettest May in a monthly series from 1836.
The numbers of air and ground frosts in 2021 were above the 1991–2020 average. The numbers of air frosts and ground frosts in April 2021 were the highest on record for the UK in a series from 1960. There was also widespread and significant snowfall in early February.
It was this which prompted me to write Global Cooling on 20th May 2021. At such a late stage in the year, I commenced it as follows:
The year 2021 has seen the coldest start to a year that I can remember in the north of England (my memory realistically goes back to the mid-late 1960s). That’s not to say that it has been the coldest start to the year here, since memory is a fickle thing. And of course, weather in one small part of the world does not represent weather globally, nor can a few months of weather be said to be representative of climatic trends.
That said, is there any significant global cooling going on? I mean, I know it’s cold here – crossing the Pennines the other day, according to my car thermometer, a drop of another 2 or 3C and it could have started snowing. We still have daffodils in full bloom in the second half of May. The trees round here have only really started showing leafage in the last week or so.
The UK 2021 annual sunshine total was 99% of the 1991–2020 average, and April 2021 was the UK’s equal-sunniest April on record in a series from 1919, shared with April 2020, and also the sunniest calendar month of the year.
Interestingly, with the notable exception of storm Arwen, the year was less stormy than most other years in recent decades. That ABI report and the models predicting greater storminess continued to be undermined by reality:
There have been fewer occurrences of max gust speeds exceeding 40/50/60 Kt for the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.
The UK annual mean wind speed for 2021 was second lowest in a series from 1969.
The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2021 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally. However, this series must be interpreted with some caution.
Looking back on the year from July 2022 the Met Office managed to pull off the trick of acknowledging that the year “was in some regards a relatively unremarkable year in the UK’s recent climatology” and yet also claiming “[i]n a changing climate we expect variability from year-to-year.
2022 saw that infamous record temperature (even if a record set at an airfield when three jets are landing is a bit dodgy) so this is no surprise:
The UK’s record warm year of 2022 and unprecedented July heatwave were both made more likely by climate change.
2022 was the warmest year in the UK series from 1884, 0.9°C above the 1991–2020 average. It was the first year to record a UK annual mean temperature above 10°C.
40°C was recorded in the UK for the first time during a heatwave which exceeded previous records by a large margin.
Given those dramatic statistics, it is then a little surprising that no season during the year set a record, the most that could be said being that they were all in the “top ten”. Similarly, although air and ground frosts were below average, neither were exceptionally low (though growing degree days were the highest in the series). Despite the summer drought, it was only the driest summer since 1995, and rainfall was 94% of the 1991–2020 average over the year as a whole. The year also saw the 8th wettest February on record, though January, March and April were drier than usual. In fact we are told that there has been a slight increase in heavy rainfall across the UK in recent decades, which doesn’t seem particularly worrying. Not surprisingly, it was one of the least snowy years on record.
While England had its equal sunniest year, it was only the 7th sunniest year over the UK as a whole. But January was the sunniest January in the series in England, while March was the sunniest in the series for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Interestingly, winter and spring are showing a recent trend towards greater sunniness, which doesn’t seem like a bad thing. 2022 was comparable in storminess with other years in recent decades, although the five named storms were all in January and February, which was unusual.
For those of us who remember 1976 this is interesting:
The period January–August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976, with drought status declared across parts of England and all of Wales. [My emphasis].
This is also interesting. Despite it being a warm year overall:
In December 2022, the UK experienced one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since December 2010.
That’s recent history, and I remember it all too painfully – quite a few of our garden shrubs of long-standing failed to make it through the bitter cold of last winter.
Never mind the cold, though, it’s the heat that we have to remember. The Met Office has just announced “Record breaking 2022 indicative of future UK climate”:
Met Office studies found both the record warm year and July heatwave were made more likely by human induced climate change.
It’s much too early, at just seven months in, to know what the report on the UK’s climate in 2023 will look like. My personal observation is that it was a cold winter with some vicious cold snaps; spring was delayed; we had a hot dry June in some areas (though I am convinced it wasn’t as hot as the Met Office would have us believe, nor consistently hot across the entire country); and July was cool and damp, with more of the same in view in August. So bad has been the later part of the summer, that the BBC yesterday had an article headed “UK weather: When will it stop raining and the summer improve?”. The article acknowledged that “[f]or weeks now, the UK’s weather has been unsettled – with widespread rain, cooler temperatures and an autumnal feel”, and that it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue through much of August. That doesn’t stop it making the link with climate change:
Is this year’s damp summer linked to climate change? The change in jet position does happen sometimes – but the extreme heat in the south is more than likely why it’s out of place this time, says BBC Weather’s Paul Goddard. Climate change makes extreme heat worse, scientists say.
“The atmosphere is one big balancing act. Just because it is raining here doesn’t mean to say it isn’t a product of climate change,” says Paul.
There is a nursery rhyme that goes like this:
Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
We’ll weather the weather, whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not.
I think it’s time to update it:
Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
They’ll tell us the weather, whatever the weather,
Is consistent with man-made climate change
Whether we like it or not.
It seems that climate science is as unsettled as the weather.
Climate Scepticism 
The fundamental tool of all irrational cults: tautology.
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Facts are facts, but some get mistaken for other facts, and others get buried. This is a cause of climate chaos.
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I suspect that if Isaac Fletcher could speak to us from the troubled climate paradigm of the mid-late 18th century, that we are told we have to preserve at all costs, he would want to know what we think the problem is.
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Have you noticed how the Met Orifice have broken the CET record to minimise the exceptional 1976 summer, Mark?
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F418b712a-c447-4df8-8dcf-203b343f3fb4_1105x607.webp
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“In December 2022, the UK experienced one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since December 2010.”
Yes, it was a bit ‘fresh’ in December 2022. How variable is the British weather? I remember Dec 2010 very clearly. A 1000 mile long easterly wind flow set itself up from Central Siberia direct to the UK. The ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018 had nothing on December 2010. December 2010 was the SECOND COLDEST in Central England since 1659, beaten only by 1890. The monthly mean (-0.7C) was one of only seven negatives in the entire series. Dec 2010 was significantly colder than Dec 1676. That’s how variable the British weather is!
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Thanks, Jaime,
Well, we are both correct about how lousy July 2023. This BBC article reports the Met Office confirming as much:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66371704
Of course, this can’t be allowed to put a damper on alarm about climate change.
“Some scientists think that higher temperatures due to climate change in the Arctic – which has warmed more than four times faster than the global average – are causing the jet stream to slow, increasing the likelihood of high pressure and hot weather remaining in place.
Global warming means hot temperatures and wetter periods will become more typical for the UK.
Hotter air is able to hold more moisture – and it falls back to ground in heavy downpours.”
This is despite such wet weather being supposed to occur in the UK winter. We were assured after a hot dry summer in 2022 and a hot dry June this year that hot dry summers were the new normal thanks to climate change.
If the next couple of summers are wet and cool, that will be the new normal… until the next hot dry one.
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They never give up Mark. It’s sad, comical and infuriating, all at the same time.
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People have such short term memories.
Currently the NZ media are regaling us about how we need to expect summers to be wetter. https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/100665515/warm-and-wet-is-this-our-new-summer-
Ten years ago they were telling us, same site, that drought would be the new normal: https://www.stuff.co.nz/ipad-editors-picks/8405004/North-Island-drought-worst-in-history
The worst thing is not that the media have literally turned 180 degrees, but that people who lived through the dry periods seem to not be able to remember them.
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I remember the summer floods of 2012, which happened after a prolonged drought from winter 2009 to 2011. The MSM reported that it was the shape of summers to come because of climate change. Here’s what the Met Office have said about the period:
“After a dry start to April, the Jet Stream adopted a persistent southerly track (Figure 20) and the associated westerly airflow brought successive pulses of heavy rainfall across most of the country. This synoptic pattern remained dominant throughout the remainder of a year in which many existing national, regional and local rainfall records were eclipsed.”
Hmm, sounds familiar! The difference being, June 2023 was very dry, then July was very wet. In 2012, the deluge started in spring. Who knows how long this current wet weather and southerly jet stream configuration may last. It may persist throughout the rest of the summer and well into autumn. But that’s the British weather throughout recorded history; it has a habit of going from one extreme to another. Summer 1911 and summer 1912 springs immediately to mind. So many other examples. Yes, people do have very short memories and thus they are easily exploited by propagandists in government and the media.
“April was the wettest in the EWP series with rainfall totals approaching four times the average in a few localities. The cool, unsettled weather conditions continued well into May, but rainfall totals were mostly near average for the month overall. June, however, replicated April by exceeding the previous monthly maximum for England & Wales. Locally, there were several extremely wet interludes: on the 8th/9th a 48-hour rainfall total of 186 mm was recorded at Dinas reservoir (central Wales); on the 22nd Honister (in the Lake District) reported a rain day total of 208 mm; and on the 28th short period rainfall rates equivalent to over 50 mm an hour were reported19 (other exceptional rainfall events are listed in Table 9). Generally however it was the persistent spells of heavy rain that contributed most to the extreme April-June rainfall. For England & Wales, it was the wettest April-June period by a margin equivalent to an additional month’s rainfall. Cyclonic conditions continued through the first two-thirds of July with exceptional 48-hour rainfall totals over the 6th and 7th in east Devon20 – a number of rain gauges registered >100 mm.”
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503643/1/N503643CR.pdf
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Chester and Jaime,
Short memories are relied on by those pushing climate propaganda. I suspect that’s the reason why last year the propagandists worked so hard to tell us that last year was more exceptional than 1976 and that 1976 was neither so hot nor so dry as we remembered. The problem was that 1976 was so exceptional, that those of us who lived through it do remember it, vividly, and no amount of propaganda will overturn that.
More mundane weather, though, such as a wet summer followed by a dry one or vice versa, is more easily forgotten, and they rely heavily on that. In that way, whatever the weather, it can be described as the new normal and the fault of climate change – until the following year’s (different) weather, which will again be the new normal, and also entirely consistent with climate change.
No, as Jaime points out, it’s just weather.
Gentle warming, on the other hand, is indisputable, even if some of the temperature records are definitely dodgy, due to the siting of weather stations in places that don’t begin to meet WMO category one standards.
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Last year we were regaled with the problems farmers were encountering because of the hot dry summer (the new normal). This year we get this:
“Reading farmer’s profits down 36% due to recent wet weather”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66370228
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Mark,
Agricultural productivity and thus profitability depends on the weather. Who’dve thunk it? As a farmer, you take the good years with the bad. That’s the nature of the business. Livestock farmers are not complaining – the grass is growing very nicely thank you!
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Jaime, indeed.
I may have mentioned here at the time that last August while on holiday in south Wales my wife and I bumped into a farming couple from Cambridgeshire. Inevitably we discussed the heat and drought, and I asked how it had affected them. They weren’t unhappy. Very wisely they majored on two very different crops, one of which was dependent on rain (sugar beet) the other on dry conditions (wheat). The sugar beet was a total failure last year, but their wheat crop was exceptional and very profitable. This year it will probably be the other way round.
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I wrote this in 2006:
Click to access social_construction.pdf
The original was published in ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT, VOLUME 18 No. 6 2007
They were spinning back then.
“The Met Office are so worried about the credibility of global warming theory in the face of contrary experience with current weather patterns, and the coldest winter for many years, that they felt it necessary to draw the attention of the public to this question.
Their figures are usually presented as charts of “anomalies” compared to the thirty-year period 1961-1990, following a convention laid down by the WMO. It is supposed to be updated every ten years but so far there is limited presentation against 1971-2000 data. However, if a period like 1961-90 is used, with a lot of cold winters and indifferent summers, then it is logical that as the weather returns to a more acceptable pattern it will be “above average” compared to the earlier period.
This was the original forecast in September 2005:
Our latest predictions indicate a colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK – especially southern regions – are expected to have temperatures below normal. The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are ‘normal’. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.
A subsequent web page made the point: “why are we predicting a colder than average winter when we are at the same time talking about climate change”. They even produced an FAQ on the subject, including this pertinent “belief-related” question and answer:
Q) So, does it mean that global warming is on hold?
A) No. The forecast of a colder-than-average winter is based on the prediction of atmospheric circulation patterns that change from year to year. Increased frequencies of easterly and northerly winds are expected this year. Basically, it is the direction of the wind that brings the lower-than-average temperatures. “
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In summary …
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And there was me thinking the new normal of climate change-induced hot, drought-ridden summers were the thing we had to worry about…
“Fears of food inflation rise as UK harvests hit by cool, wet summer
Farmers warn wheat, oilseed rape, potatoes and other crops have been affected after wettest July on record”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/04/fears-of-food-price-inflation-rise-as-uk-harvests-hit-by-cool-wet-summer
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On the other hand, there are some winners….
“Wet weather sends UK sales of roasts and custard soaring
Stores saw unseasonal spending pattern as rain-soaked July shoppers plumped for winter comfort food”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/04/winter-comfort-food-binge-brings-solace-uk-rain-soaked-summer-shoppers
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For the past I don’t know how many years we have seen crop irrigation sprayers working night and day in fields of cereals and potatoes. This year there are none ! In previous non drought summer’s they were working in the lighter soil fields to keep crops going. We have been told regularly the water table has dropped and so the ground is dry deeper making it more like the Sahara than our green and pleasant land. As Old farmer McLaren said before, the fields round here look better this year than they have for quite a time.
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A rare Guardian article that fails to mention climate change:
“Unseasonably wet weather threatens UK harvest, say farmers
Soggy July has affected wheat, barley and hay crops as waterlogged soil makes some harder to harvest”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/07/unseasonably-wet-weather-harvest-uk-farmers-wheat-barley-hay
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“Heatwave to washout – what happened to Scotland’s summer?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66657562
But the BBC report, despite the headline, repeatedly tells us how hot it was in Europe:
And – of course – whatever the weather, it’s climate change:
Eh? Where are BBC Verify and the Climate Misinformation team when you need them?
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None of that makes even the slightest sense Mark. They’re really struggling aren’t they? They seem to have given up entirely on attempting fact-based, coherent reporting. It’s just a mish-mash of misinformation/disinformation/ignorance/stupidity combined with the usual tired climate alarmist talking points.
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“If we were to eliminate emissions tomorrow, the planet would continue warming for at least the next century.
So a dual focus has to also be on preparing for the impact of more severe storms, bigger wildfires and droughts. Exactly what we’ve been seeing in Scotland this year but worse.”
so any weather event we are used to “but worse.”
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PS – had a quick look at the “highest rated” comments under that BBC Scotland article.
the article gets a panning, seems we are not alone in spotting BS 😉
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Dougie, that’s a good spot. The critical comments, which are most of them, receive a lot more ups than downs, that’s for sure.
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“Christmas Eve: Hottest since 1997 after 15.3C recorded near Heathrow”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67817500
Yet another “record” set at or near an airport. Read on, and it’s utterly insignificant in the scheme of things:
Meanwhile:
Relatively warm? OK, it’s not cold, but it’s not particularly warm either. There’s nothing to see here, but never mind, the BBC got its headline. Thankfully they didn’t mention climate change.
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Well, “warm” UK may be breaking no meaningful records, but the cold in China is doing so:
“Beijing shivers through coldest December on record”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-67818872
Then – in case we get the wrong idea – we are reminded:
Things really are pretty serious, nevertheless:
It’s not clear? Perhaps no, but pretty badly is the answer, I suspect. Worse than if it were hot.
By the way, I think any records (hot or cold, dry or wet) are not terribly meaningful if they cover a period of less than 3/4 of a century. Nevertheless, it’s interesting that this has happened against a relentless backdrop of wailing about a warming world. It’s also a timely (and sad) reminder that many more people, both in the UK and around the world, day of extreme cold than die of extreme heat.
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I am currently away from my laptop, so am frustrated in debunking this:
“Warmer winters and more flooding will be the norm in the UK, scientists warn”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/06/warmer-winters-and-more-flooding-will-be-the-norm-in-the-uk-scientists-warn
However, I will content myself with noting that the evidence in support of the claim of wetter winters is a link to a tweet that claims a cherry -picked period from July to December 2023 was the wettest such period in the UK since 1890. Of course, that is a period that includes more summer than winter, so it is not evidence in support of the claim that winters are getting wetter. Worse still, it would seem to actively contradict their other regular claim that climate change will cause more summer droughts in the UK. But never mind, why let the facts get in the way of an alarmist climate change headline?
I agree with some of the other points made, such as the need to spend money on adapting to issues climatique (it makes so much more sense than futilely wasting money on “mitigation” measures that will make no measurable difference to the climate).
Also this from the article:
“However, Britain has dug up its peatland, drained its marshes and built on its flood plains. As a result, the nation has lost much of its natural protection from the effects of flooding.”
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Spent a fantastic hour yesterday in the backseat of a little airplane with my grandson doing a flight training circuit. We left Perth airport heading for Pitlochry and the snowy mountains, the sun shining on a clear frosty day. As we approached Pitlochry we could see the hydro dam working on Loch Tummel and the 70 turbines at Drumderg stationery. (We were flying at 3500 ft doing 100 knots so getting the best of views. ) We followed the Tay up to Aberfeldy and Loch Tay , the mountains now very snowy and Loch reflecting the scene, climbed up to 4000 ft and turned over the snow heading for the Strathearn (Crieff) . Now this was more like a wet winter scene, the River Earn had come over its banks in quite a few places but it is a very flat floodplain. Followed the river round the back of Perth and could see Dundee and the Tay bridges with the sun behind us lighting up the view. I bet Cumbria and the lakes would be just as good if it’s snowy.
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Sun shining again today — 5 c in the garden, the sun barely gets to it at this time of year. Only excitement today is a trip to Tesco in Perth so will probably get a pain in my heart when I see the mountains again !
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I have no wish to minimise the dreadful effect of flooding on people affected by it, but I think this article is ridiculous:
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2024/jan/05/heavy-flooding-is-climate-crisis-wake-up-call-for-uk-says-tewkesbury-abbey-canon
It acknowledges that the area round Tewkesbury has always flooded, then launches (without evidence) into the usual claim that climate change is making floods like this more common. The whole article is a handle for a climate activist church man to peddling his line. The irony, of course, is the accompanying photo, showing the abbey high and dry, surrounded by flood water. It was built there, of course, precisely because its builders knew that it was the only land in those parts that was usually safe from flooding.
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James S,
I am envious. The weather is also glorious in Cumbria, but just at the moment I am on the wet eastern side of the country.
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It was good to actually walk on hard ground today, not wade through a muddy swamp! The waterlogged ground has turned to ice and the sun is shining and the wind is not blowing a gale. I took a fantastic picture of the river Cocker ‘steaming’ in the cold air, as the sunbeams filtered through the trees on the bank. The beauty of the British weather is its stunning diversity but with the refreshing absence of equity and inclusion!
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Another comment gone into spam. Can someone dig it out please.
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Done!
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Hi Mark!
Can you explain why none of my ‘Likes’ on comments ever show up?
Is it a bug in WordPress, do you think?
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Sorry to hear that. I fear it’s a WP bug. Are you logged in to WP?
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Seems like it!
Would it let me post if I wasn’t?
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Cat,
In theory you can comment without being a WordPress subscriber and without being signed in to it. However, when the recent WP glitch hit, some people seemed to struggle to comment unless doing so via WP account. In theory, those problems are supposed to be resolved.
I was always able to comment and like comments, without having a WP account, but I don’t know the situation now, as in order to write articles here, I had to subscribe to WP and am now permanently logged in to it.
Sorry that’s not so helpful as it might be.
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No snow yet, sun still shining but ominous clouds moving in !
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-68036507
At 10.10am on the rolling commentary.
“More intense storms down to climate change, meteorologist says
Putting Isha into context, a senior meteorologist from the Met Office has explained that the “more intense” storms the UK is experiencing are caused by climate change.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast, Claire Nasir said: “In 2023, we began on a rainfall deficit and had two intense heatwaves, yet the UK saw the 11th wettest year on record.”
She explained this shift between extremes in weather patterns in the UK would continue in the future.
If you’d like to read more about climate change and how it is affecting our weather, here’s a simple guide….”
Whatever the weather, the Met Office and the BBC can always be relied upon to blame man-made climate change.
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Was speaking to an SSE line engineer last night storm causing mayhem with turbines, wind speed varying by 50km/h and dropping to virtually 0 at times. Grid figures seem very strange this morning, we are still importing 16% with nuke and bio running at 7% , just be dirt cheap stuff coming in from EU maybe from LIDL and ALDI ???
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James S, it won’t be dirt cheap. See my last article (A Grain of Truth)!
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Wind output is just shy of 21 GW as I type which, iirc, is very close to the all-time record.
That prompted a thought: what is the maximum capacity factor across the whole fleet? I think we have about 30 GW of nameplate wind capacity so it looks as if the best-ever performance is 70%.
Of course that contrasts poorly with dispatchable systems.
So, alongside the well-known intermittency problems, it should be noted that 70% of nameplate is the most we can ever expect to get from all those systems.
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The Met Office last night issued a red weather warning for winds in NE Scotland for the early hours. I checked various locations there and none of them were predicting gusts much in excess of 70mph. Yet here in NW England, they were predicting gusts of up to 74mph, but only issued an amber warning. I quizzed them on this but got no reply. It seems to me that they had to get a scary red warning in before Isha headed off, so chose eastern Scotland to do it. Now no doubt it will be climate change which is causing us to race through the alphabet of named deep Atlantic depressions. Pathetic.
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You’re free from Spam now, Jaime . Apologies once again.
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“Constant clouds over US Great Lakes area could hurt residents’ mental health
Grand Rapids saw just five minutes of sun in the first week of the year, while January was the cloudiest in Chicago in 129 years”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/27/us-great-lakes-clouds-sunlight-mental-health
“…it’s difficult to establish a direct link between climate change and wintertime cloud cover…” but it doesn’t stop them having a go.
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Mark,
If it’s difficult to establish a link between climate change and cloud cover, the chemtrail conspiracists have no such problems in blaming, variously, British Airways, American Airlines, Delta, the military, etc., or the globalist cabal or the government, or ‘them’ for spraying the skies and blocking out sunshine. There’s no end of posts on ‘X’ showing high altitude persistent plane trails accompanied by complaints that ‘they stole muh sunshine’. Even perfectly natural low level cloud formations are being blamed on a government conspiracy now. Whilst it is true that persistent spreading contrails are a mess and, perhaps because there are a lot more aircraft and the upper atmosphere is relatively more humid now than it used to be, the number of days with clear blue skies and unbroken sunshine is decreasing, one does not have to invent a nefarious global conspiracy to account for it – just like one does not have to invent a ‘climate crisis’ to account for increasing low level cloud cover in winter. But if you try to engage these people with facts, they just shrug them off, like water off a duck’s back.
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‘If it’s difficult to establish a link between climate change and cloud cover’…
I blame increasing cloud cover on those cheshire sunspots :::
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19.6C in northern Scotland! I’m extremely dubious about this. Not a million miles from here and I’ve been out today walking the dogs and it was very cold and blustery. How can there be a highly localised tropical hotspot in northern Scotland when most of the country is hovering at about 9-11C, with strong SOUTHERLY winds making it feel considerably colder?
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They’re joking! 27C today in Kinlochewe! I’ve taken a screenshot of this. Unbelievable that the Met Office are on X claiming a new January record!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfhpz0nu4#?date=2024-01-28
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It’s possible that it reached 19.6C at Kinlochewe, I suppose. It does seem to be a place where unusually warm temperatures are recorded reasonably regularly (though maybe that should trigger sceptical questions as to the reliability of the thermometer they use). Certainly my frequent visits to Kinlochewe to climb the Torridon hills have almost always seen me encountering wind, rain, low cloud and cool temperatures.
And I can vouch for what you say about the weather in west Cumbria. 10C, according to my car thermometer, gusty cold-feeling winds.
Thanks for the screenshot – hilarious.
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It’s partly due to the Foehn Effect according to the BBC. Hmm. 19.6C, maybe just maybe, very highly localised, but the rest of the country has got nowhere near this fantastical figure – and why were the Met Office forecasting 27C? That’s just absurd.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-68119951?
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I can guarantee, the climate change mob will be on to this in no time. Where did they take the temp reading? Outside the hotel when the manager switched the heat pump onto air conditioning mode?
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The wording of the BBC report is typical of that used when describing localised weather conditions that have nothing to do with climate change:
“The BBC Scotland forecaster and meteorologist Calum MacColl said the balmy weather was due in part to something known as the Foehn effect.”
Of course, the obligatory ‘in part’ allows for a critical contribution from you know what, courtesy of ‘unusually’ mild weather blowing from the south.
Rather than claiming that the temperature was ‘in part’ due to the Foehn effect, they should be pointing out the very local nature of the Foehn effect and stating how much warmer it was in Kinlochewe compared to the average temperature in that part of Scotland. That discrepancy is entirely due to the Foehn effect.
So what was that temperature? I don’t actually know but, as an example, just up the road at Talladale today’s forecast was for a maximum of 13 deg C. Mild for the time of year, but not the climate change storyline that the BBC’s ‘in part’ was meant to insinuate.
https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/fa4fd7f4c34f209dc31147b5b878a867d07c550a2893766766491d1dac1f02f9
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The forecast for tomorrow where I live is 4C almost all day!
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By the way, Jaime, I endorse what you say in your substack article, but having failed to sign in there to comment, may I add a comment here? Without taking anything away from what you write, can I point out that you live a lot further from Kinlochewe than you suggest in your article. Not that that affects the gist of what you write.
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The famous WALLED garden at Inverewe maybe thats where the temp is taken ? The garden is protected from the worst of the elements within it’s wall and according to folklore the Gulf Stream takes a special wee turn up Loch Ewe to keep it cosy during the winter. LOL
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1. Met Office’s pdf for Northern Scotland climate suggests “Conversely, occasionally to
the lee of high ground temperatures can reach up to 15 °C in winter when a south or SW airstream warms up after crossing upland – an effect known as a fohn wind.”
Click to access northern-scotland_-climate—met-office.pdf
2. My copy of Barry & Chorley’s “”Atmosphere, Weather and Climate”, 8th ed., suggests near page 123 that fohn or chinook winds may result in large and rapid temperature rises:-
“At Tashkent in Central Asia, where the mean winter temperature is about freezing point, temperatures may rise to more than 21 degC during a fohn … At Pincher Creek, Alberta, a temperature rise of 21 degC occurred in four minutes with the onset of a chinook on 6 January 1966. Less spectacular effects are also noticeable in the lee of … the Grampians in Great Britain.”
3. The NTS site for Inverewe Gardens (https://www.nts.org.uk/visit/places/inverewe) says “Rare species thrive in this heritage garden as the effects of the Gulf Stream meet the Highlands.”
4. So, perhaps, a short-term natural excursion to almost 20 degC is not that improbable. [Or have those pesky Tornados being doing their aerobatics at the Inverewe airshow?]
5. I love the Torridon Mountains, although it is a while since I reached the summit of any of them – good memories though from years ago of Liathach, Beinn Alligin, and the western end of Beinn Eighe.
Regards, John.
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Jamie – thanks for your eagle eye sleuthing.
after visiting your MET link, you’ll be glad to know that they have updated the temp for today to 28 degrees.
after playing with the website, I found this – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gfhpz0nu4
which seems to show temp at 11pm Sunday at 15 degrees, the highest over Sat/Sun.
but I could be reading this MET info wrongly.
PS – BBC 6pm weather guy was on the case, another high temp record smashed.
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pps – wonder if Fujitsu are writing the software for MET – https://www2.fujitsu.com/uk/uvance/
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Mark, it was a rough guess just eyeballing the map – quite an inaccurate guess as it turns out! More like about 300 miles! I’ll correct that.
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I presume that the Foehn Effect has operated in the Kinlochewe location for many centuries but, since records began apparently, it has never driven temperatures as high as 19.6C. The rest of Scotland was mild, but not unusually mild with reference to past January days when the wind has blown from the south, so the initial temperature of the air at the top of the mountains above Kinlochewe must not have been ‘unprecedented’. Therefore, for the record to be broken, this must mean that somehow the dynamics of the Foehn Effect yesterday were ‘unprecedented’, resulting in a greater increase in temperature of the air on the downslope side than has previously been observed. Alternatively, the method of recording temperature in Kinlochewe itself was ‘unprecedented’.
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300 miles from Kinlochewe sounds much more like it, Jaime.
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I believe there are many, many mountains in Scotland, each with its own downslope. So why wasn’t the foehn effect more widespread? Hell, Scotland should have been a European hotspot.
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The arsonists have been dispatched to the Highlands. This is the disgraceful headline published by Sky today:
“Wildfires have been reported in Lochinver, Scotland, following January’s hottest ever temperature being recorded in the UK
A meteorologist told Sky News southern winds have dragged milder air from Africa across the UK, which have triggered higher temperatures. The new record temperature beats the previous January highs of 18.3C set at Inchmarlo and Aboyne in 2003 and Aber in 1958 and 1971.”
Not a single mention of Foehn winds.
https://news.sky.com/video/wildfires-have-been-reported-in-lochinver-scotland-following-januarys-hottest-ever-temperature-being-recorded-in-the-uk-13058877
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It is quite common in Scotland for the Heather on the hillside to be burnt in the spring to clear the old dead growth to bring in new fresh shoots which is a good source of food for grouse and then the shooters get good numbers in August. January is a bit early but perhaps after a mild spell it is better to burn as it also helps reduce ticks and other beasties which can plague the birds and sheep.
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Have a quick look at this – ” For most of these 50 years, the weather station has been sited to the south end of Inverewe Garden, away from public areas. However, there are now plans to move it to the foreshore in front of the walled garden, as the current location is considered too overgrown to give accurate readings.” taken from this site https://www.nts.org.uk/stories/inverewes-weather-station. My wife and I were at the gardens in July 2021 , I remember it being cool and misty but up at Clachtoll (just north of Lochinver) the sun was splitting the rocks. We were staying in Ullapool , the weather in that glen was also cool and misty, it was the lady in the fish shop told us all the caravaners and campers were heading for Achmelvich and Clachtoll for the sunny weather.
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Alan,
In answer to your question, the foehn effect is a common experience in Scotland. It can be highly localised but it can also be discerned within wider patterns of weather. This is from the Met Office’s own website:
“In the UK, the most notable foehn events tend to occur across the Scottish Highlands where the moist prevailing westerly winds encounter high ground along Scotland’s west coast. This results in a marked contrast in weather conditions across the country with the west being subjected to wet weather, whilst the lower lying east enjoys the warmth and sunshine of the foehn effect.”
As I understand it, yesterday’s event(s) were due to a southerly wind. I am not in a position to question the accuracy of the temperatures but I do take issue with the ‘in part’ attribution. I remember about 30 years ago walking on a North Wales beach in the first week of February and the temperature was about 18 deg C. This is another area that is notoriously affected by the foehn effect during southerly winds (Snowdonia being the relevant mountain range), but in those days no one would dream of saying that the resulting temperatures were due ‘in part’ to the effect.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/foehn-effect#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20foehn%20effect,the%20other%20(leeward)%20side.
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Jaime, James,
This is the BBC’s understanding of the Lochinver wildfire:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51velxg2yeo
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John,
Ah, so it WAS climate change wot dunnit then, because without the strong wind, the mild temperature and the dried out vegetation, the fire wouldn’t have happened!
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John, I am a connoisseur of warm weather descending from mountains having spent four winters in Calgary, Alberta where temperatures would rise from long periods of sub-zero temperatures to dizzying heights of snow removing chinooks. All I can advise inhabitants of Kinlochewe Is to protect your gardens from drying out and the sudden return of sub-zero weather. We Calgarians had bundles of straw for the garden for such occurrences.
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Alan,
So you will know better than any of us that the most striking aspect of such phenomena is the dramatic variation in temperature that can take place. As I said yesterday, what I am interested in is just how unrepresentative is the 19.6 deg C, i.e. how does it contrast with the generally cooler temperatures on the southern side of the mountain? From what I can see, 13 deg C was the typical forecast for the area, but with high southerly winds that could explain micro-climate outliers such as Lochinewe.
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Jaime,
Yep, that’s it basically.
Incidentally, there is this report from Sky News that does at least mention the foehn effect. However, once again it is mentioned only after having made the point that warmer temperatures had been introduced from Africa. Hence, the foehn effect was only ‘Part of the reason for the spike’.
NO, NO, NO! If it is the spike that you are interested in, then the foehn effect is entirely responsible.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-records-its-warmest-ever-january-temperature-13058549
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Indeed I can, but Calgary lies east of a near unbroken range of high mountains – the Front Ranges of the Rockies – so the entire southern Alberta plains up to a hundred miles east of the mountains experienced warming chinook winds. Edmonton lay further east from the mountains so did not experience the warming events. Its Canadian football team was appropriately named the Eskimos.
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John, I’m trying to find some answers on this. It’s bugging me I must say. There is no suggestion that ambient air temperatures across Scotland were at a record high or that a brisk southerly airflow originating from Africa was especially unusual. So why did these not unprecedented weather conditions result in record Foehn Effect enhanced temperatures?
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Jaime,
This is where I have to admit to being way out of my depth. Intuitively I feel that these geographically determined atmospheric effects are somewhat sensitive to a number of relevant variables, and within that sensitivity lies the capacity to break records even when certain of the variables, e.g. ambient temperatures, are not particularly extreme. Just how much adiabatic warming takes place on the leeward side depends, amongst other things, on how much moisture was lost on the windward ascent and whether the dew point was reached. So we may be dealing with a finely tuned balance between humidity, wind speed and the wind direction with respect to local terrain to determine the outcome. Maybe that is what we saw in Lochinewe yesterday. I honestly don’t know.
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Interesting coincidence this happening during the Mann vs. Steyn trial:
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Oh well, at least the BBC is putting the blame for the fire where it lies, unlike Sky. Ironically, and sadly, we can expect more of these fires, as pylons and electric wires spread to facilitate net zero.
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Credit where it’s due, the Guardian/Observer reported it with a straight bat:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/28/scottish-village-may-have-set-record-for-warmest-january-weather-hitting-196c
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Now we need to start the discussion all over again!
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Does anybody remember the latent heat of vaporiszation of water , when water changes state it absorbs energy and releases energy returning to the original state. We have had a lot of misty patches appearing on the hills and woods and then disappearing later in the day so requiring an absorption of energy to appear from the damp ground and a release of energy maybe onto say a nearby thermometer ????
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Around 530 cals per gram IIRC, James.
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Mark,
Yes and no. It’s still the foehn effect but in a different location. As I conceded in discussion with Alan, mountains are widespread in Scotland and so, under the right conditions, similar conditions will be repeated in multiple locations.
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Well, I hope the few residents of Achfary made the most of it – within a week they are forecast to have high temperatures of 3-4C and lots of sleet.
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A couple of naive questions:-
What equipment measures temperatures to an accuracy of 0.1 degC. ? And how is maintained within calibration?
Regards, John.
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According to the Met Office website:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations
the weather station at Kinlochewe is automatic while that at Achfary is manual. My paltry efforts have been unable to ascertain anything about where they are sited, and the extent to which (if at all) they satisfy WMO criteria with regard to such things.
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Change of country, but same old same old – whatever the weather, it’s climate change. First, from Nov 2021:
“India’s apple farmers count cost of climate crisis as snow decimates crops
Kashmiri farmers lose half their harvest to early snows for third year, with fears for future of the region’s orchards”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/nov/24/india-kashmiri-apple-farmers-climate-crisis-snow-decimates-crops
Heavy early snow = climate change. Two years later, no snow = climate change:
“Kashmir’s ski resort waits for visitors after just one day of snow this winter
As tourists cancel trips to Gulmarg amid an unprecedentedly warm season, thousands of Kashmiris who rely on snowfall face ruin”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/25/kashmir-ski-resort-gulmarg-india-waits-for-visitors-after-one-day-of-snow-this-winter
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Mark – thanks for the Guardian flip/flop links, liked this bit at the end of latest –
“However, Billa Majeed Bakshi, who operates Kashmir Heli Ski, which flies professional – mainly foreign – skiers to high-altitude slopes, remains optimistic. “This is still the beginning of the winter,” he says. We still have two more months, we can even ski till the end of April because at high altitudes snow will be good and powdery.
This is nature and we cannot fight nature,” he adds. “We cannot lose hope and courage.”
smartest comment in the article.
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An interesting comment at Paul Homewood’s place:
“A bit more interesting information. There is an “enthusiasts” weather station described by the Met Office themselves as
“Located in an open field at Achfary clear of buildings and trees. Approximately 500 metres from the Met Office Stevenson screen and rain gauge at Achfary.”
This site only recorded 18.8°C which is a hell of a lot different to 19.9°C just a short distance away. Hmmm, I really doubt all of these readings as representing anything other than some freak occurrence being it natural of anthropogenic..”
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Mark, regarding the temperature readings at Kinlochewe and Achfary, Kinlochewe is probably far more reliable:
Even at Kinlochewe though, the data only goes back as far as 1953 and it is entirely conceivable that the ‘record’ of 19.3C was matched or exceeded at this location before that. Also, as Harry points out, these winter extremes in mountainous areas are quite common due to localised Foehn effects. High temperature records set in low lying areas minus any Foehn effect are more significant.
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Coming home after a very wet and cold weekend in Oban this morning. The A85 from Oban to Loch Earn goes through some of the most fantastic mountain areas, this morning they were completely white, the temp reading in the car ranged from 3 – 6 c depending on how high we were, the rain changing to sleet with it. Got to Stirling about 12.30 sun shining temp only 8c . NALOPKT article What heatwave on the 13/14th certainly did not arrive in the West of Scotland the map image of red should be BLUE with a temp difference of -18c with the forecast predicting up to 21c.
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James S,
Yes, listening the other day to the BBC weather forecaster talking about the heatwave felt like gaslighting. It’s been cold here in Cumbria all year so far apart from a couple of pleasantly mild days, and today has been very cold indeed.
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It seems that it isn’t just in the UK that the climate crisis(sic) will be blamed, whatever the weather. I am wary about making points that involve personal tragedy; nevertheless, the Guardian is now blaming Brazilian flooding on climate change:
“Brazil is reeling from catastrophic floods. What went wrong – and what does the future hold?”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/may/10/brazil-is-reeling-from-catastrophic-floods-what-went-wrong-and-what-does-the-future-hold
It’s not so long ago that droughts in Brazil (including in the south, the area affected by recent flooding) were being blamed on climate change, with the suggestion that their frequency would increase:
“Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019”
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/11/642
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BBC weather at it again ! Oban forecast 21c actual 15c, the webcam in the harbour is also showing 15c. Ullapool forecast 22c , actual 14 – 17c depending if the sun is out. Tonight’s recap on news at 10 will be full of overstated highs. FFS it’s still May.
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“Climate disruption to UK seasons causes problems for migratory birds
Early springs mean food for young of arrivals from west Africa has already disappeared; this year they face the opposite problem”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/16/climate-disruption-to-uk-seasons-causes-problems-for-migratory-birds
Migratory birds, especially those long-distance travellers that winter in sub-Saharan Africa, are struggling with the effects of climate change. Specifically, the trend towards earlier springs is causing problems, because when they arrive at their usual time – between mid-April and early May – nature’s calendar has shifted forwards and spring is almost over.
This is a particular problem for three species that travel from west Africa to breed in British oakwoods: the wood warbler, the redstart and the pied flycatcher. This trio feed their young on oak moth caterpillars, but when spring comes early these have already emerged and are beginning to pupate, so the chicks starve.
This year, however, the birds have faced the opposite problem. Spring 2024 has been so wet and cool that many of the birds have not yet reached the combes and valleys of western Britain. Those that have arrived are having to search for food in unseasonably chilly weather before they can even think about nesting.
This is the sinister paradox of the climate crisis. It does not just affect nature through long-term shifts in weather patterns, but also causes unpredictability, so that one spring may be hot and dry and the next one cold and wet.
Humans may complain about this but we can at least take steps to cope. Spare a thought for the birds and other wild creatures that have no defence against this capricious and unrelenting change.
They just can’t lose, can they? After years of telling us that springs were getting hotter and drier and arriving earlier, when spring is colder and wetter and arrives later, it doesn’t change anything. Whatever the weather does, it’s climate change, apparently.
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“Climate change made UK’s waterlogged winter worse”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp992nxxe7do
Climate change is a major reason the UK suffered such a waterlogged winter, scientists have confirmed.
It was the country’s second wettest October to March period on record and a disaster for farmers, who faced flooded fields during a key planting period.
Global warming due to humans burning fossil fuels made this level of rainfall at least four times more likely, according to the World Weather Attribution group….
…“There are some farms in the valley that will not see a harvest at all this year. That hasn’t happened here since 1948,” he says….
...Meanwhile, the amount of rainfall on the stormiest days increased by about 20% on average, due to climate change….
If it hasn’t happened since 1948, does that mean that it also happened in 1948? Sadly the report is ambiguous. But if it’s a once in 76 years event, that suggests randomness to me, especially if it did happen in 1948 too. How do they explain 1948 (assuming it also happened then)?
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You can always count on the Guardian to up the ante. Was the wet winter 4 times more likely or 10 times more likely?
“‘Never-ending’ UK rain made 10 times more likely by climate crisis, study says
Winter downpours also made 20% wetter and will occur every three years without urgent carbon cuts, experts warn”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/22/never-ending-uk-rain-10-times-more-likely-climate-crisis-study
The seemingly “never-ending” rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found.
More than a dozen storms battered the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The downpour led to severe floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and heavy losses of crops and livestock.
The level of rain caused by the storms would have occurred just once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years owing to 1.2C of global heating reached in recent years. If fossil fuel burning is not rapidly cut and the global temperature reaches 2C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed.…
The BBC says 4 times, the Guardian says 10 times. It reminds me of the lyric in the Dire Straits song – “Two men say they’re Jesus. One of them must be wrong” So one of the claims must be wrong – they can’t both be right. Then again, they might both be wrong. The science, it seems, isn’t settled.
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Mark,
As usual, it’s total BS from the BBC and Guardian, both paid to propagate a false narrative. Even if the models suggested that the storms which did arrive were overall wetter on average than storms which supposedly affected these shore 170 years ago, before the climate crisis (BCC), the models also suggest that the storm severity index (SSI) should be decreasing with climate change, not increasing! Also, just as importantly, the authors admit that the reason we were impacted by so many low pressure cyclonic systems is because of the position of the jet stream, which, despite the efforts of climate alarmists to claim otherwise, cannot be linked to global warming.
The storminess of the 2023-24 season has been primarily dictated by the position and strength of the jet stream, a band of strong westerly winds high up in the atmosphere driven by temperature differences between the equator and the poles, and tends to be strongest in winter. The position and strength of the jet stream influences how many low-pressure systems are directed towards Ireland and the UK. The strength of the jet stream, and how each individual low-pressure system interacts with it, determines whether these low-pressure systems intensify enough to become Atlantic storms. During the 2023-24 season, the jet stream was stronger than normal, which likely contributed to how strong the storms became. Impacts of individual storms can be worsened when the soils are already very wet due to preceding sustained rainfall or a succession of storms over a similar area, leading to saturation, increased run-off and risk of flooding.
The storm severity index (SSI) was used to define stormy days to study. The SSI considers both the strength of the wind and the area affected. In this analysis we looked at rainfall and wind speed on stormy days identified by the SSI.
Looking at average SSI on storm days, while some studies using other methods suggest an increase in storminess in a future climate, our analysis has shown a decreasing trend. Our results show that average SSI indices as observed this year became about a factor of 2 less likely. The synthesis of the models also shows a negative trend and, when combined with observations, the results indicate that a stormy season as observed this year is nowadays a factor of about 1.4 less likely due to human induced climate change.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/
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“Has spring weather really been that bad?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cz44911j2d4o
Mean temperatures in March were 6.7C, which was the 11th warmest in 141 years, and 1C above average.
The respective stats for April were 8.3C, the 22nd warmest and 0.4C above the average.
It’s clear that May has also been a very mild month with individual weather stations reporting above average temperatures of between 1C in southern England to as much as 4C in parts of Scotland.Once the May data is available it will significantly boost these spring temperature figures.
All I can say is that where I live must be an outlier. March and April felt colder than usual, with the log burner in regular use until the end of April. May has been cool, with our outside garden and chairs used only twice. Despite the evidence of my own eyes, this cool and indifferent weather is apparently due to climate change:
Climate change means that monthly temperatures are more likely to be above average than below.
That has been the case for the three months of spring 2024.
It also plays a role in bringing heavier rain. Warmer air can evaporate more water from the oceans, and for every 1C rise in temperature we get 7% more moisture in the atmosphere.
This spring has been far wetter than average, so here too we are probably looking at the finger prints of climate change.
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“Brrr-itish summer: why is it so cold and when will it get warmer?”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/14/brrr-itish-summer-why-is-it-so-cold-when-will-it-get-warmer
The below-average temperatures and rain may feel more miserable because we’ve come to see heatwaves as the norm
Brilliant!
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I wish someone would tell my heating system about global warming!
And is the reason it is coming on in mid June to do with the fact that it has become used to heatwaves and so thinks it is colder than it is? Can a heating system develop a cognitive bias?
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D’know John but my heating system is loved even more than usual this month.
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Mark,
This is a blatant lie. The mean CET updated to the 13th of June is now 11.9C, with an anomaly of -2.2. This means that for nearly half the month now, it has been on a par with the 5th coldest June since 1659! It has been a phenomenally cold start to June, really very exceptional. Just let them try to claim at the month’s end that it has been the hottest ever! Even claims of ‘warmer than average’ are looking highly unlikely once the whole month is done. The gaslighting and propaganda are becoming outrageous.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt
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According to the jet stream forecast it’s going to remain rather unsettled throughout most of June, with cold polar air predominating. Only for the last 3 or 4 days is there any sign of more settled weather and possibly above average temperatures. If I had to guess I would say it will probably fall within the top 50 coldest Junes in Central England since 1659. Not as cold as 1972, 1977 or 1991, but still pretty disappointing for the Era of Global Boiling!
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream
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Hunga Tonga.
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Hunga Tonga: is this the new skeptics’ greeting call? We need another for when we disagree.
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“Soup sales up and sun cream down in wet June”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce44dwe1qpvo
Needless to say, it’s climate change…:
…Climate change means that extreme weather conditions are more likely, though scientists say it is difficult to pin any particular weather pattern on the warming climate….
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The thing that annoys me is that climate scientists must be making a killing on the financial markets as they know ahead of time about these variations in demand.
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From that BBC article by Mitchell Labiak – Business reporter –
I notice that the quote “Climate change means that extreme weather conditions are more likely, though scientists say it is difficult to pin any particular weather pattern on the warming climate.”
appears about halve way & has no real relevance to the rest of the article, they just have to get a “warming climate” link pasted into everything they can.
ps – on BBC news today, they were reporting on the heatwaves worldwide, just to balance a crappy June in the UK & had a Climate Scientist (can’t recall her name) on.
Found this – Extreme heat around the world – BBC Weather
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