The year 2021 has seen the coldest start to a year that I can remember in the north of England (my memory realistically goes back to the mid-late 1960s). That’s not to say that it has been the coldest start to the year here, since memory is a fickle thing. And of course, weather in one small part of the world does not represent weather globally, nor can a few months of weather be said to be representative of climatic trends.
That said, is there any significant global cooling going on? I mean, I know it’s cold here – crossing the Pennines the other day, according to my car thermometer, a drop of another 2 or 3C and it could have started snowing. We still have daffodils in full bloom in the second half of May. The trees round here have only really started showing leafage in the last week or so. But that’s here. What’s going on globally?
Fortunately, there is a useful tool at hand for this purpose. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) devotes a section of its website to “State of the Climate” and provides a monthly global climate report (among many other things). Here is NOAA’s data for the last 12 months, directly compared to its data for the same months one year earlier. And the data tell no lies – yes it has been getting colder globally:
May 2020 -v- May 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature rose by 0.10C.
June 2020 -v- June 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.03C.
July 2020 -v- July 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.03C.
August 2020 -v- August 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature rose by 0.02C.
September 2020 -v- September 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature rose by 0.02C.
October 2020 -v- October 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.13C.
November 2020 -v- November 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature rose by 0.05C.
December 2020 -v- December 2019: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.38C.
January 2021 -v- January 2020: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.34C.
February 2021 -v- February 2020: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.52C.
March 2021 -v- March 2020: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.31C.
April 2021 -v- April 2020: global land and ocean surface temperature fell by 0.27C.
Let’s not get excited about this. Data for a two-year period represents nothing of significance in climatic terms. Even if the numbers were significant, they could easily be attributed to La Nina or other factors that bear no relation to anthropogenic global warming. However, there has been a definite cooling trend recently, starting with a plateauing of the rising trend, followed by a decline, which became increasingly marked, and which is perhaps now slowing down.
It is difficult to attribute the cooling trend to the impact of lockdowns responding to the Covid virus, given that although humankind’s greenhouse gas emissions reduced during the pandemic, they still continued, and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continued to increase. All things being equal, temperatures should be rising, not falling. But all things are not equal. La Nina might explain everything.
Whatever the case, the language adopted by NOAA is interesting. Even as temperatures fell year on year, no reference to this fact is made. Instead, referring to a month which was 0.34C colder than the same month a year earlier, we are regaled with comments like:
“The January 2021 global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.80°C (1.44°F) above the 20th century average and ranked as the seventh warmest January in the 142-year global records.”
And then, referring to a month which was 0.31C colder than the same month a year earlier, we have this:
“…the eighth highest [temperature departure] for March in the 142-year record”
It isn’t a case of cooling, according to these statements. It’s more a case of less warming.
Global Land and Ocean Surface Temperature
By the way, how do you measure global land and ocean surface temperature, and then produce an average of the two? Not surprisingly it’s complex. But is it meaningful? CarbonBrief has a fascinating section about this on its website. There are four major datasets (of which NOAA’s is one). The four datasets show warming at different rates (so there’s the first query about the accuracy of all this). The explanation for the differences is down to the way the different datasets “deal with having little or no data in remote parts of the world, measurement errors, changes in instrumentation over time and other factors that make capturing global temperature a less-than-straightforward task.” It sounds to me that there’s a lot that can go wrong there. The biggest issue (as CarbonBrief acknowledges) is lack of data in large sections of the world.
One dataset (HADCRUT) leaves the blanks as blanks, rather than trying to fill them in. The others all use different statistical methodologies to try to fill in the blanks (but the fact remains that they’re still blanks, and however skilled the statistical methods, we can’t know that the blanks have been properly filled in).
Anyway, then they divide the globe into grid boxes (NASA uses different grid boxes to the other three). They also differ in how many land stations they have around the world, and in when their data series commenced. Then they combine the grid boxes to produce average temperatures for the northern and southern hemispheres. That’s a problem in itself, since the northern hemisphere provides more real data. And we haven’t even touched on the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI), and adjustments made to reflect that.
All of which makes the idea of an average global temperature (on a planet where temperatures can vary on any given day between two extremes by perhaps 100C) pretty meaningless, in my view. However, (subject to issues such as whether the UHI is being properly adjusted for in an increasingly urbanised world) I do accept that these databases can pick up trends in global temperatures. Which brings me back to the point that NOAA’s database suggests that the world has been cooling for a little while now.
Given that the Guardian and the BBC run several climate-related articles a week, it might have been nice if they’d noticed – and mentioned – that it’s been getting colder for a few months now. But they didn’t (at least not so far as I can see) so I thought I would.
In fact, the mainstream media don’t seem to have picked up on the recent cooling at all (a 0.52C year-on-year fall between February 2020 and February 2021 is apparently not at all newsworthy). Furthermore, in the run-up to COP 26 I don’t expect them to do so. The hysteria will continue, and I will be surprised if any of the media giants will be mentioning falling global temperatures any time soon. I bet they’d have mentioned a year-on-year increase of 0.52C though.
And there’s another thought. There’s lots of talk about the problems associated with global temperatures increasing by 1C, 2C, 3C, or even more, over the course of a century. Who would have thought that temperatures would drop by more than 0.5C in a single year?
And finally: How come the eighth highest temperature departure for March in 142 years felt so ruddy cold?
The word “c**ling” ist verb*ten! Not in the dictionary!
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Mark you haven’t touched the half of it. The role of temperature adjustments will loom large. Highly anonymous cooling will be edited. Your memories and experiences will be adjusted to fit the consensus view. If you persist heretic, you also will be edited. Soon CRU-NOAA will control every thermometer.
Other people have been doing lockdown projects. This blogger has been looking at temperature records and is reaching heretical conclusions:
“My first aim has been to go back to basics, to examine the original temperature data, look for trends in that data, and to apply some basic error analysis to determine how significant those trends really are. Then I have sought to compare what I see in the original data with what climate scientists claim is happening. In most cases I have found that the temperature trends in the real data are significantly less than those reported by climate scientists. In other words, much of the reported temperature rises, particularly in Southern Hemisphere data, result from the data manipulations performed by the climate scientists on the data. This implies that many of the reported temperature rises are an exaggeration.”
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I won’t get too excited until we have a lengthening “pause”, or perhaps “pause redux”. Even then we ought to measure trends over 30 years rather than shorter periods.
Even then temperatures themselves are a little too abstract. I would prefer to move the battle onto the alleged consequences of global warming (e.g. declines in crop yields, climate refugees, etc, etc, which there are no signs of). I would be inclined to let alarmists trill about temperature records, and then reply: “And nothing bad happened.”
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This is where I came in, about 14 years ago I believe, when Anthony Watts was posting photos of temperature stations placed on tarmac downwind of jet planes, and over at Steve McIntyre’s ClimateAudit they were discussing the adjustments that had to be made when the water for measuring ocean temperatures was hauled aboard in leather buckets instead of oaken ones. Then around 1940 the Brits (who owned 70% of merchant shipping) for some odd reason stopped measuring ocean temperatures and it was left up to the Yanks, who measured with thermometers attached to the hull near the water intake.. Suddenly the temperature of 79% of the earth’s surface jumped by a degree or two, and all because of U-boats.
Does anyone have a link to an article (Steve Milloy?) pointing out how NOAA recently readjusted early 20th century temperatures downwards, almost doubling 20th century warming from 0.5°C to 0.9°C at the stroke of a pen, and therefore doubling the effort we have to make to keep temperature rise to less than 1.5°C? I mean, if they can admit in 2020 that the true figure for 20th century warming was twice the estimate made twenty years previously, what’s to stop them doing the same thing in 2040? Maybe the true figure for 20th century warming was 1.8°C and we passed the level of catastrophic warming ages ago and didn’t notice?
The temperature graph is like a piece of string fixed at both ends. Present temperature measurements are correct by definition, otherwise the science wouldn’t be settled, which it is – Q.E.D. And temperatures in the dim distant past can’t be argued with, because they were measured by scientists at a limited number of sites (Central England, Paris, Prague, and – bizarrely – County Antrim spring to mind) and the thermometers used are in museums for anyone to check. So all the adjusters can do is mess with the figures in between, playing merry hell with MBH98 and a whole lot of other settled science.
And one final thing. About the empty spaces in between which Mark mentions. I once mentioned that Météo France was claiming that my region of France had experienced 5°C of warming in 50 years. France, like the UK, USA, New Zealand etc. possesses a large number of islands scattered over the globe, which must have an inordinate effect on average temperature measurements. If you want to know how hot it is in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it’s Kerguelen or nothing. There’s nothing there but a thermometer, and nowhere else for thousands of kilometres around. And the same goes for the Arctic, where, I read somewhere, NOAA one day chopped the number of reporting stations from hundreds to a dozen or so. My only experience of data sampling was in market research forty years ago. A survey manager who acted like the NOAA wouldn’t last long.
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Adjustments to temperature measurements in Oz. https://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Changing_Temperature_Data.pdf
For Geoff, a lot of the adjustments are detailed here.https://climate4you.com/
[thanks – Geoff]
“Whatever the case, the language adopted by NOAA is interesting.” True, and I think we may hear more examples of this if we ever enter a “Pause 2” type situation.
E.g., “This year 20xx has been relatively cold, but still among the warmest X out of the last XX years.”
Also then maybe something like: “This year 20xx has been slightly cooler due to X (La Nina/volcanic dust/strong trade winds/heat hiding in the deep oceans/whatever) but CO2 emissions are still rising and global warming has not gone away – it’s just being masked by X, for now. So when X goes away, don’t worry, climate change will return with a vengeance”.
And then, if it gets a bit warmer again, followed by: “There never was a “pause” in global warming or climate change”, as per the Guardian in 2014:
Move along, nothing to see here!
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Thanks for all the comments, and apologies for the delay in replying, due to being busy with other stuff.
JIT – I’m not excited at all. As I’m at pains to point out in the piece, this is very short-lived cooling so far, and may readily be explicable by something like La Nina. I just find it disappointing that there is absolutely no balance in media coverage, and even NOAA seem to me to be more supportive of an agenda than of objective science.
I do agree that (at least absent any long-term cooling) the best strategy is to point to the lack of real problems firmly attributable to climate change, despite the hype. But then, we do have a problem in saying that, since much of the media, especially the Guardian and the BBC in the UK, will big up every passing press release relating to climate alarmism, and will happily attribute any and every bad or problematic event to climate change.
Looking for Sky News’s daily climate show I came across their Global Warming Tracker, produced by the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute.
This purports to show global temperature change in real time, but in fact is simply a clock recalibrated in °C reproducing a straight line temperature rise from 1880 to the present. It shows temperature rising by about 0.000000001°C per second, completely ignoring the fact that monthly average global temperatures regularly drop tens of millions of times that over a period of months or even years. What does Ofcom think about this fake news?
This is a tragedy, and I feel bad even mentioning it. However, it suggests that cooling extends to China currently:
“China ultramarathon: Severe weather kills 21 runners”
“Twenty-one runners have died after extreme weather struck a long-distance race in north-western China.
High winds and freezing rain hit participants in the 100km (60-mile) ultramarathon in the Yellow River Stone Forest, a tourist site in Gansu province, on Saturday.
The race was halted when some of the 172 runners went missing, and a rescue operation was launched.
Many of the stranded runners reportedly suffered from hypothermia.”
“Wet and cold May leads to fruit crop delay”
“Fruit crops such as strawberries and plums are expected to be up to three weeks late this year due to the recent cold and wet weather.
The berry season officially started on 1 May but the chilly conditions have slowed down the growing process.
Michael Bentley, from Castle Fruit Farm near Newent in Gloucestershire, said it was in stark contrast to last year.
“Compared to last year they’re going to be about three weeks late. This is nature for you,” he said.”
Nature, not climate change. And of course he’s right, but if it had been an unusually dry and hot May…?
I see the media seems to have stopped telling us that spring is arriving earlier every year.
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A couple of years (or it could be a lifetime) ago, it was a different story, when the Guardian was reporting on the unease and existential dread lurking just beneath the surface of a warmer than usual early spring:
Quoted are the comments of seemingly random but somehow very Guardian members of the public.
“It’s lovely but worryingly mild”.
“The scenes are very beautiful… but I know I’m seeing them too early: climate change terrifies me”.
“This wild [early blossoming] plum tree grows alongside a public footpath where dog walkers, joggers, families with children and young couples are casually passing without even noticing it.” [The horror…]
“Watching the way they [bees] are reacting to February temperatures that are really too high is fascinating. Honey bees are the ultimate evolvers, but I can’t help but be concerned!”
However, fast forward to an unusually chilly April 2021 and it’s all strictly weather:
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“Experts warn hillgoers: summer slow to arrive on Scotland’s mountains”
“Mountain experts are warning those heading for the Scottish hills that summer has been slow to arrive.
Mountaineering Scotland said a Mountain Leader posted pictures of his group on the summit of Ben Nevis last weekend in full winter conditions.
A spokesperson for the organisation, which represents hillwalkers, climbers, mountaineers and ski-tourers north of the border, said: “While we’re on the countdown to midge season, and ticks have already been making their presence felt in the glens, cooler than average temperatures have meant many late-lying snow patches remain, some of them icy when the temperature drops.
“Hillwalkers and climbers have been delighted to get back to Scotland’s mountains in recent weeks.
“But Scotland’s weather hasn’t been playing ball with people’s dreams of returning to the heights.””
NOAA’s report for May 2021 is now in. The global surface temperature was 0.14C lower than in May 2020. It may well be that the cooling trend of the last few months is slowing.
At least my perception of a cool start to the year in Europe (or my bit of it), which included a cold May, has been borne out:
“Cooler-than-average May temperatures were observed across parts of North America, the eastern Pacific Ocean, central Europe, and central Asia and India. There was a small area in eastern India that had a record-cold May temperature, encompassing only 0.1% of the world surface with a record-cold May temperature. The European temperature for May 2021 was 0.41°C (0.74°F) above average and was the coolest May since 2004. Several central European countries had their coolest May in at least 10 years. Of note, Germany had its coldest May since 2010, with a temperature that was 2.4°C (4.3°F) below the 1991–2020 period. The United Kingdom’s national temperature was 1.3°C (2.3°F) below the 1981–2010 average and was the coldest for May since 1996. North America also had a temperature departure for May that was above average; however, it was also the coolest May since 2011.”
I really like the way this blogger looks at UK weather
So UK springs have been getting cooler but sunnier and less wet over the last decade. Not that you would gather that from the BBC
MIAB, many thanks for the link – an interesting read.
NOAA’s report forJune 2021 is now in. The global surface temperature was only 0.04C lower than in June 2020. It may well be that the cooling trend of the last few months is slowing still further.
At least my perception of a cool start to the year in Europe (or my bit of it), which included a cold May, has been borne out:
“Public urged to count butterflies after year of bad weather”
“People across the UK are being asked to take part in an annual count of butterflies amid fears they have been affected by poor weather this spring….
..Butterfly Conservation, the wildlife charity running the scheme, said its current records show that many species of butterflies have been affected by this year’s unseasonably cold and wet spring….”.
Of course, they now have a new way of dealing with inconvenient weather – every type of weather (hot, cold, wet, dry) is due to climate chanage, aka CAGW aka the “climate crisis”:
“…TV naturalist Chris Packham said participating in the Big Butterfly Count could provide key research on the impact of climate change on wildlife….
…Conservationists warn the UK is seeing a rising number of extreme weather events, which its thought is a result of climate change, and want to learn about the effects on native butterflies so they can better understand the longer term impact on nature….
…Dr Randle added: “We really need the public’s help to understand what is happening to our butterfly and moth populations. It’s a small but crucial thing everyone can do.
“This information will not only help us to protect these species, but also to inform what effect the changing climate is having on our biodiversity.”…”
I’m still awaiting for the numbers from NOAA for their July 2021 global report. However, the numbers are in for their report on the USA in June 2021, and given all the talk about the “heat dome”, I’m surprised by what I’ve just read:
“The contiguous U.S. average temperature during July was 75.5°F, 1.9°F above the 20th century average, tying with 1954 and 2003 for 13th warmest July in the 127-year record.” So joint 13th warmest July – much lower in the records than I expected, certainly than the MSM headlines had led me to expect.
“Despite the extreme warmth across the western U.S., temperatures were below average across portions of the southern and central Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast.”
“The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during July was 87.7°F, 1.1°F above the 20th century average, ranking in the warmest one-third of the record. Above-average to record-warm maximum temperatures were observed across much of the West and northern Plains. Oregon ranked warmest on record for daytime temperatures. Daytime temperatures were below average across portions of the Southwest and from the Deep South to the Great Lakes and into New England as well as across portions of the Southeast.”
“The Alaska average July temperature was 53.7°F, 1.0°F above the long-term mean and ranked in the warmest third of the historical record for the state.
Areas that experienced above-average precipitation across western Alaska during July also had temperatures that were below average.
Above-average temperatures occurred across much of the eastern half of Alaska and across the Aleutians.
The Alaskan wildfire season, to-date, is well-below average.”
Despite all the talk of wild fires and droughts – “The July precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 3.36 inches, 0.58 inch above average, ranking sixth wettest in the historical period of record.”
“Precipitation was above average across much of the Northeast, parts of the Southwest, South, Southeast, Midwest and Great Lakes. New York and Massachusetts ranked wettest on record for July.
Following two relatively inactive monsoon seasons in the Southwest, the ridge of high pressure over the West shifted slightly to the east and the monsoon returned in mid-July bringing record rainfall and flash flooding to portions of the Southwest.
Tucson, AZ, had its wettest July and month on record with 8.06 inches of precipitation.”
“According to the August 3 U.S. Drought Monitor, approximately 46 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down from about 47 percent at the end of June. Drought intensified and/or expanded across portions of the northern Plains, northern Rockies, Northwest and from the Great Basin to the Pacific Coast. Drought also emerged across portions of Alaska and intensified across Maui in Hawaii. Drought severity lessened across the Northeast, Great Lakes and portions of the Southwest and central Rockies. Nearly 90 percent of the 11 states across the western U.S. are experiencing some level of drought.”
A mixed bag, to say the least.
Well, the results are in globally for July, and it’s official – hot, hot, hot:
“It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record”
“Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago. It was 0.02 of a degree F (0.01 of a degree C) higher than the previous record set in July 2016, which was then tied in 2019 and 2020.”
July is the hottest month globally every year, I believe, so we’ll wait and see what happens next month, but it looks as though the cooling trend has ended conveniently in the run-up to COP 26.
Despite the headline, some of the details make strange reading, given the global result. For instance:
“The record-warm July temperatures encompassed 5.06% of the world’s surface — the seventh highest July percentage for record-warm July temperatures since records began in 1951. Meanwhile, cooler-than-average conditions were present across parts of the south-central and southeastern contiguous U.S., northeastern Canada, southern Africa, northern Russia, and the southeastern Pacific Ocean.”
“Asia’s July 2021 surface temperature was 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average — the highest July temperature departure since 1910.”
” Hong Kong had its fourth warmest July on record with a temperature that was 0.9°C (1.6°F) above average.”
“Europe had its second warmest July (tied with 2010), with a temperature departure of +2.37°C (+4.27°F). This was only 0.10°C (0.18°F) shy of tying the warmest July set in 2018. Across Europe, the United Kingdom’s July 2021 temperature of 16.6°C (61.9°F) was 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average and tied as the fifth highest July temperature since national records began in 1884. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Helsinki, Finland had its second warmest July on record, behind 2010. ”
“Meanwhile, North America, South America, Africa, and Oceania had a top 10 warm July.”
“Australia’s July 2021 mean temperature was 1.77°C (3.19°F) above average, which is the fourth warmest July in the nation’s 112-year record. Regionally, South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory had a top three warm July on record. Queensland had it seventh warmest July on record.
New Zealand’s July 2021 temperature was 1.1°C (2.0°F) above average and tied as the sixth warmest July on record.”
With so many places not setting new records, with temperatures maybe in the top 10 (or even the top 2) it’s difficult to see how globally the record was broken, but I suppose it must have been. Funny old business, averaging global temperatures, I guess.
NOAA’s report for August 2021 is now in. They say it was the second warmest August land temperature; 6th warmest August ocean temperature; and 6th warmest combined land and sea temperature for August.
Interestingly, despite the hype, at 0.90C above the 20th century average, the combined land and sea temperature was 0.04C cooler than August 2020, which was 0.94C above the 20th century average. One month doesn’t create a trend, and looked at in isolation, the result is meaningless in that respect, but it’s interesting that the retreat from cooling over a 12months period, which retreat was steady for a few months, may now have stopped. Next month’s figures will no doubt reveal more.
Over at NOAA, the results for September 2021 are in, and it was cooler than September 2020. As with last month, none of this is any big deal, but it rather belies the hype at the NOAA website. Combined land and sea temperature was 0.90C above the 20th century average, which means it was the same as August 2021, but 0.07C cooler than September 2020, which was 0.97C higher than the 20th century average.
And it is reported in hyped terms at the NOAA website, which says this:
“Only Septembers of 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2020 had a higher September temperature departure.”
Of course, if one was so minded, one could report it this way:
“September 2021 was cooler than four of the six Septembers immediately preceding it.”
I wonder why they didn’t put it like that?
H/T Ross Lea at Bishop Hill Unthreaded:
“Global Temperature for September 2021 is 0.81C”
“The average temperature was 0.81 C in September. This was up a little from August (0.76C). However 2021 is turning out to cooler than recent years with an average annual temperature with 3 months remaining of 0.69C. This makes it on track to be the coolest year since 2014….
…With just 3 months to go and a continuing la Nina, it looks almost certain that 2021 will either be the coldest or the next coldest of the last 7 years.”
Over at NOAA, the results for October 2021 are in, and it was cooler than September 2020. As with last month, none of this is any big deal, but it rather belies the hype at the NOAA website. Combined land and sea temperature was 0.89C above the 20th century average, which means it was 0.08C cooler than September 2020, which was 0.97C higher than the 20th century average.
And it is reported in hyped terms at the NOAA website, which says this:
“…the fourth highest October temperature in the 142-year record. Only Octobers of 2015, 2018, and 2019 had a warmer October..”
Of course, if one was so minded, one could report it this way:
“September 2021 was cooler than three of the six Septembers immediately preceding it.”
I wonder why they didn’t put it like that?
“October 2021 was cooler than September 2020”
Well yeh, October is usually cooler than September
stew, two responses. First, rather than stealth edit my error, I meant to say that October 2021 was cooler than September 2021, but warmer than October 2020 – it was actually 0.04C warmer than October 2020, but 0.09C cooler than October 2019.
Secondly, this is a report of global temperatures, not local ones, so I’m not sure you’re correct to say that globally October is usually cooler than September.
Yer right, but would that need a second Dominic Cummings to make any headway?
Over at NOAA, the results for November 2021 are in, and it was cooler than November 2020. None of this is any big deal, but it rather belies the hype at the NOAA website. Combined land and sea temperature was 0.91C above the 20th century average, which means it was 0.06C cooler than November 2020, which was 0.97C higher than the 20th century average.
Globally, it was a mixed bag:
“Compared to all months, November 2021 was the ninth highest percentage for record-high temperature for any month since 1951. Meanwhile, cooler-than-average November temperatures were present across much of Alaska and Australia and across parts of Greenland, northwestern China, and the north, eastern, and southeastern Pacific Ocean.”
The NOAA results for December 2021 are in (they have been for some time, but I lost focus while looking at the 2021 year report). Combined land and sea temperature was 0.83C above the above the 20th century average, making it 0.05C warmer than December 2020, but 0.22C cooler than December 2019. It was the coolest month since May 2021, which it exceeded by 0.02C.
The NOAA results for January 2022 are in. Combined land and sea temperature was 0.89C above the 20th century average, making it 0.06C warmer than December 2021 and 0.09C warmer than January 2021, but a whopping 0.25C cooler than January 2020.
I like the word “whopping” but feel it should only be used for ice cream cones or how much gas we need to import !!!
The NOAA results for February 2022 are in. Combined land and sea temperature was 0.81C above the 20th century average, making it 0.16C warmer than February 2021, but 0.36C cooler than February 2020.
NOAA put a brave face on it with lots of sensational sounding, but rather underwhelming claims:
“Globally, February 2022 was the seventh-warmest February in the 143-year NOAA record. The year-to-date (January-February) global surface temperature was the sixth highest on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, it is virtually certain (> 99.0%) that 2022 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record.”
Truth is, it’s a mixed bag, and nothing to justify alarmism:
“The December 2021-February 2022 global surface temperature was 1.51°F (0.84°C) above the 20th-century average of 53.8°F (12.1°C) and tied with 2015 as the fifth-warmest December-February period in the 143-year record.
The December-February period is defined as the Northern Hemisphere’s meteorological winter and the Southern Hemisphere’s meteorological summer. The Northern Hemisphere winter 2022 temperature departure made it the sixth-highest winter on record. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere summer temperature made it the seventh-highest summer on record.
Regionally, South America, Europe and Asia had a seasonal temperature departure that ranked among the sixth highest on record. Even though North America and Africa had warmer-than-normal seasonal temperatures, each had their coldest December-February period since 2014 and 2015, respectively.
During December-February, temperatures were much above average across Central and South America, Europe, the Atlantic, Indian, northern and western Pacific oceans, as well as parts of western and southern Africa and western Asia. In contrast, Canada, the northern Atlantic Ocean and central/eastern tropical and southeastern Pacific Ocean had cooler-than-average December-February temperatures.”
March numbers are in, and NOAA is doing it’s best to put a global warming spin on it, but it doesn’t look dramatic or crisis-ridden to me:
“March 2022, year to date rank as Earth’s 5th warmest
Antarctic sea ice coverage shrank to near-record low”
“Looking regionally, Oceania had its fourth-warmest March on record while Asia had its ninth-warmest. North America, South America, Europe and Africa all had above-average March temperatures, but none of the continents saw a top-15 warm March.”
“Asia also had its fifth warmest year-to-date temperature on record, while South America, Europe, the Caribbean region and Oceania each saw a January-through-March temperature ranked among the nine warmest on record. Africa and North America also were warmer than average, but saw their coolest year to date since 2012 and 2014, respectively.”
April’s numbers are in, complete with “An undated photo showing an Augrabies Falls viewing platform destroyed by flooding on South Africa’s Orange River.”
The breathless, sensationalist nature of the reporting is more and more tabloidesque and less and less scientific in its language.
“April was very warm throughout the globe, with the month tying 2010 as the fifth-warmest April in 143-year climate record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.”
Hides some less than dramatic detail:
“The average global temperature in April was 1.53 degrees F (0.85 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C), tying with April 2010 as the fifth-warmest April on record.
Asia had its warmest April on record — dating back to 1910 — with the month running 4.72 degrees F (2.62 degrees C) above average. This surpassed the now second-warmest April in 2016 by 0.09 of a degree F (0.05 of a degree C). Unusually high temperatures across India and Pakistan contributed to the record heat in Asia, with several locations setting new April temperature records.
Oceania had its fifth-warmest April on record, while Africa and South America saw their ninth and 12th-warmest April on record, respectively. North America was the only continent with a cooler-than-average April, seeing its coolest April since 2018.
The world’s 10 warmest Aprils have all occurred since 2010, with 2014-2022 all ranking among the 10 warmest Aprils on record.”
Obviously it has stopped getting warmer, so that fact has to be hidden by sentences like that above. It’s a similar story on the year to date:
“The global temperature for the year to date (YTD, January through April 2022) was 1.57 degrees F (0.87 of a degree C) above average, making it the fifth-warmest such YTD on record.
Asia had its fourth-warmest YTD on record, Oceania had its seventh warmest and Europe saw its 11th warmest. South America had its ninth-warmest January-through-April YTD on record, while North America saw its coolest such YTD since 2014. ”
We are told that “Polar sea ice coverage was low”, but the detail behind that claim is less dramatic:
“Arctic sea ice extent (coverage) averaged 5.43 million square miles in April, 243,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average and the 11th smallest for April since records began in 1979. Despite being below average, it was the largest April sea ice extent since 2014. Antarctic sea ice extent for April 2022 was 2.25 million square miles — 390,000 square miles below average — tying with 1981 as the fourth-smallest April sea ice extent on record. Only the Aprils of 1980, 2017 and 2019 had smaller sea ice extents.”
The Antarctic sea ice extent sounds small, until one reflects that ice levels were at these levels (or below) in 1980 and 1981. Arctic sea ice levels have been kept since 1979 only. We are not told how long Antarctic sea ice levels have been kept, but if that date is 1979 also, then these numbers don’t tell us much.
“New Evidence Shows Global Warming has Slowed Dramatically Over Last 20 Years”
“Further scientific evidence that global warming starting to run out of steam over two decades ago has been presented by an international group of leading scientists. In a major re-evaluation of data from meteorology balloons rising through the troposphere, the scientists confirmed that temperatures have mostly paused since around 1998. The discovery can only add to pressure to re-open the so-called ‘settled science’ debate around global warming and the central part it plays in the 30-year rush towards Net Zero.
Readings throughout the troposphere, Earth’s lower atmosphere that extends in parts up to 15 km altitude, have been available for many years. The researchers were able to use measuring metadata to improve the consistency of records obtained from almost 700 global locations, recording twice a day since 1978, at 16 pressure levels. The slowdown since 1998 observed in the balloon data is confirmed by accurate satellite data, which also shows a current pause of about 91 months. An earlier pause from 1998 to 2012 has been largely wiped from all the major surface temperature datasets.”
Worth a read. I am in no position to comment on the science, though I thought this was interesting:
“…So why is there so little current warming being recorded by satellites and meteorological balloons in the troposphere, yet for the major surface datasets it is onwards and upwards, business as usual? None more so than at the U.K. Met Office, where the inconvenient 1998-2012 pause was finally removed in 2020 by a 14% temperature uplift. Here is the change from HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5….”
“…In 2013, the move from HadCRUT3 to HadCRUT4 introduced the first temperature boost. Along with the 2020 uplift, the extra heating is thought to amount to as much as 30%. In addition, some earlier records were moved downwards, and this had the effect of accentuating the recent rise. Similar adjustments have been made to other major datasets, including those run by NASA and the U.S. weather service, NOAA. Professor Humlum looked at the adjustments to the NASA GISS dataset and found that “half of the apparent global temperature increase from January 1910 to January 2000 is due to administrative adjustments to the original data since May 2008”.
The adjustments matter, of course, because they provide covering fire for every journalist, activist and politician looking to promote global warming, without necessarily having full mastery of the scientific brief. Using the figures from its twice-adjusted HadCRUT database, the Met Office felt able recently to make an absurd 50-50 prediction that temperatures would leap by almost half a degree centigrade to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in one year before 2025. As expected, the message was faithfully reported by journalists across mainstream media, seemingly keen to support the political agenda behind Net Zero….”.
Mark, I have argued before that it doesn’t benefit the alarmist case if by various shenanigans – searching for reasons to adjust the data in the “wrong” woods – they achieve +1.5 C. Because if we cross that threshold and apocalypse does not ensue, what then for their case that this benchmark was key?
The key benchmarks of climate disaster or whatever we are supposed to call it are or should be its physical effects on people – the victims of extreme weather, the climate refugees, etc – all with the necessary perspective showing what has happened in such places in historical times.
Top is the body count, which is going the “wrong” way as far as the alarmist case is concerned.
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Jit: I’ve been wondering, like the Guardian, about a radical change of terminology on our side. Let me try with ‘global heating’.
The amazing news, you see, is that global heating has come down 99% since 1920.
That’s using the only metric that matters.
Corollary: whatever we’ve been doing right since 1920 we must continue to do.
(Improving the wellbeing of ordinary human beings, through technology, medical and otherwise, seems to be the main thing. There’s legitimate debate to be had there. But seen this way we’ve already cracked the global heating problem.)
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May 2022 results are in at NOAA. More attempts to hype something distinctly ordinary, so far as I can see:
“May 2022 among Earth’s top-10 warmest
Year so far sixth warmest on record”
“The globe wrapped up May 2022 as another warm one in the record books, with the month ranking as the ninth-warmest May in 143 years.”
9th warmest, eh? They hide their disappointment well. By the way, it was a cold May (again) where I live. Actually, when they go into a little more detail, they perhaps have cause to be disappointed:
“The average global temperature in May was 1.46 degrees F (0.81 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average ranking as the ninth-warmest May on record — but the coolest May since 2013.”
“Temperatures were above average in southern North America, central South America, western Europe, central Africa, northern and central Asia and eastern Australia. Temperatures were cooler than average across parts of western North America, southern South America, eastern Europe, southern Africa and mainland Southeast Asia.”
Not exactly climate chaos, is it?
Nothing much going on here either:
“Season (March through May 2022)
The average global temperature for the season was 1.53 degrees F (0.85 of a degree C above average), making it the sixth-warmest March-May on record.
The Northern Hemisphere had its fifth-warmest spring on record, while the Southern Hemisphere saw its 10th-warmest autumn. ”
“Eastern Pacific hurricane season began: May 2022 produced four named storms globally, including two that reached tropical cyclone strength (winds of at least 74 mph) — which was near normal.”
Given that apparently everywhere in the world is hotter than ever this month, this month’s report from NOAA should be interesting when it arrives in August. For now we must content ourselves with the report for June, and how disappointing it is for climate alarmists:
“June 2022 was Earth’s 6th-warmest on record”
“Looking at just land temperature, June 2022 was the Northern Hemisphere’s second-warmest June on record — 2.81 degrees F (1.56 degrees C) above average — behind June 2021’s record high land temperature. Europe and Asia also had their second-warmest June land temperature on record.”
So, going down, not up, given that last June was hotter. And why look ONLY at land temperatures? I thought the missing heat was hiding in the oceans. Apparently not, if we have to ignore the cooling oceans in order to come up with hyped up claims about land instead. Even the pesky climate models aren’t helping:
“According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record, but only an 11% chance that it will rank among the top five warmest.”
Anything else exceptional?
Well, “Much of South America experienced near-to-cooler-than-average June temperatures. As a whole it had its coolest June since 2016”.
“Tropical cyclone activity was about average: June 2022 produced five named storms across the globe, which is near-normal activity for June. “
The results from NOAA are now in for July 2022, and once again they have to work very hard to maintain the scary narrative, with not much in the way of records being broken (August’s results may fit the bill for them a bit better, I suppose, at least in the northern hemisphere):
“Earth had its 6th-hottest July and year to date on record”
“Regionally, July 2022 was among the top-10 warmest Julys on record for several continents. North America saw its second-hottest July on record, Asia had its third hottest, South America had its fourth hottest and Europe had its sixth hottest.” Africa’s was tied at joint-13th.
“Asia had its second-hottest such YTD on record with Europe seeing its fifth hottest. Africa, North America and South America all had an above-average YTD, though it did not rank among their top-10 warmest on record.
According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but an 11% chance the year will rank among the top five.”
Arctic sea ice was “the 12th smallest July sea-ice on record”.
Near-average cyclone activity for the globe in July 2022 (I’m guessing near-average is a euphemism for below average).
Oceania had its coolest July since 2012. An all-time cold temperature record of -6C was set in Hilston Airport in Australia.
Speaking of Australia:
“Weather tracker: strong wind and heavy rain to continue in Australia”
“Strong winds are expected to continue to lash Australia this week and, while the peak speeds are not anticipated to be exceptional, the vastness of the area affected will be unusual.
As low pressure moves to the south-east, high pressure is likely to develop across Western Australia before heading eastwards.
Initially a plunge in temperature is expected as southerly winds penetrate northwards into the heart of the Australian landmass, with nighttime temperatures only a couple of degrees above freezing for many.”
After all the hype about a sweltering drought-ridden August and summer (in the northern hemisphere) NOAA’s monthly and seasonal report is in, and it must be a grave disappointment to those who have been writing and reading the febrile climate stories of the last weeks and months.
But this is the one that casts doubt in my mind regarding taking NOAA seriously as anything other than climate propagandists. I always suspected they had a climate change agenda, but assumed that everything they wrote was accurate and strictly factual. What about this?
The numbers for September 2022 are in from NOAA:
They continue to push the warming narrative, even though the statistics let them down somewhat. E.g.:
That strikes me an oxymoron. How can a warming trend have continued when this September was no warmer than last September, and four earlier Septembers were warmer still?
It was a mixed bag globally:
As for the year to date:
Which doesn’t exactly strike me as justification for the claim that the Earth’s warming trend continued.
As for sea-ice:
They do their best, but the warming narrative is still running away from them. 11th smallest extent in a series covering only 44 years, for the Arctic. Antarctica did better for them at 5th smallest, but they don’t tell us how long those records exist for. If it was for more than 44 years, I suspect they would have told us.
Australia doesn’t get a mention, possibly because its being cold and wet doesn’t fit the narrative.
Mark, another thing that bothers me is “Earth had its 6th-hottest July and year to date on record”
when they say “on record” the PR part never seem to give us a clue when the supposed “record” began.
written history seems to be discounted because it’s “not recorded”
NOAA claims here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202209 that its records go back 143 years. Of course, even that covers up the fact that until well into the 19th century most places across the globe had no weather stations and data, and even now there are many blanks on the map.
The historical record, on the other hand, provides lots of useful information about extreme weather events going back hundreds of years, albeit not with the precision of modern measuring equipment. This is why the hockey stick (based on proxies which some regard as dubious) is so important in support of climate hysteria. If we relied on historical writings alone, we might be left with the dangerous impression that what’s going on with the weather right now isn’t particularly unusual. And that would never do.
The numbers for October 2022 are in from NOAA:
“Earth had its 4th-warmest October on record
Europe saw warmest October in 113 years”
As usual, the headline from this ostensibly scientific organisation (which earlier this year repeated the gross untruth that “about one-third of Pakistan was under water”) is suitably alarming and alarmist. Once again, however, much of the detail must be really disappointing for alarmists:
In its “climate by numbers” section on temperature, it tells us, among the highlights, that:
Not included in those highlights, but listed on the map lower down, if you look for it, is the information that Oceania had its coolest October since 2016, while South America had its coolest October since 2013.
What of hurricanes and the like?
The headline is “The tropics were active”. Not sure that’s justified by the narrative:
The headline might be justified only for the east Pacific:
For sea ice, the headline is “Sea ice coverage remained low”, which, dear reader, depending on your point of view, might or not be justified. With regard to the Arctic, the headline could have been something like “Arctic sea ice continues to recover”:
The biggy, of course, is the question of where the year is likely to rank in the list of hot years. More greenhouse gases mean every year should be hotter than the one before, after all…But not this year, it seems:
“South Pole Hits Record Cold November Temperatures”
“Biden sends federal aid as Buffalo digs out from weekend ‘epic snow event’
Snowstorm, worst since 2014, closed schools and forced Buffalo Bills to relocate game due to massive 77in lake-effect snowfall”
BBC – brief bit on news at 1 then nothing, wonder if they will report deaths.
It’s weather, not climate, of course, but 2022 is probably not going to be a particularly hot year, despite the summer heatwaves in some of the northern hemisphere. What with the cool southern hemisphere in 2022, recent snowstorms and ultra-low temperatures in north America, and now this:
“Weather tracker: temperatures plunge to -45C in parts of Russia
Andrew Stewart (Metdesk)
Siberian cold front forecast to push into China, Mongolia and then UK by Wednesday”
It’s O/T on this thread, but as it’s my thread, that’s fine ;-), and I think it’s interesting:
Back to the cold weather:
re the US, the UK MSM have been strangely quiet on this for some reason.
but I’m sure the “jet stream” will get a mention soon, just to balance how the UK/western Europe was hottish while US freezes.
have said before that the “jet stream” seems to be the main driver for our weather in UK, always has been.
not sure if the big waves it now seems to be showing are new/climate related.
“Royal Navy digs out world’s most remote post office from Antarctic snow”
It’s weather, not climate, but there does seem to be an awful lot of cold weather around just now, in both hemispheres.
The latest alarming headline on NOAA’s monthly global update, for November 2022 this time:
“Earth saw its 9th-warmest November in 143 years
Polar sea ice coverage was fourth-lowest on record for November”
But 9th warmest? Not getting any warmer, is it? And the detail is even less encouraging for an alarmist:
Or how about this?
Plus, Oceania had its coolest November since 1999, South America had its coolest November since 2013, and November temperature in the contiguous United States was well below average. Indeed, parts of the Pacific northwest had their coldest November in nearly 40 years.
Ice melt isn’t quite as predicted either. I’m’ neither a climatologist nor a mathematician but I’m struggling to see how the first sentence below is consistent with the sentences that follow:
How can Arctic 8th smallest on record and Antarctic 5th smallest on record combine to give polar 4th lowest on record?
Mark – from your NOAA link, they also say –
“The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November 2022 was 1.37 degrees F (0.76 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average. This ranks as the ninth-warmest November in 143 years, but the coolest November since 2014.”
they are tying themselves in knots to keep the warming/heating meme alive.
surely somebody at NOAA must think/say – this is becoming embarrassingly stupid.
dfhunter, yes, it is more than a little embarrassing. I stopped taking NOAA seriously when they repeated the claim that 30% of Pakistan was under water. This year looks to be ending in a cold way too – cold in the Antipodes, cold in much of the northern hemisphere. Here’s today’s weather news from north America:
“US winter storm barrels east with millions under weather warnings”
And speaking of polar ice:
“Arctic Summer Sea Ice Stopped Declining a Decade Ago – But Scientists Have Hidden It”
It’s weather, not climate, but it still sounds pretty serious, and not the sort of thing Americans might have been led to expect from the “climate crisis”:
Out of curiosity, I thought I’d take a look at the 10 hottest years evah, and I found this. NASA, not NOAA, but I assume alarmists would accept its findings:
2014; 2010; 2005; 1998; 2013; 2003; 2002; 2006; 2009; 2007.
In other words, nothing since 2014 has made the top 10 (according to NASA, anyway), and 8 out of the top 10 were 2010 or sooner. It doesn’t exactly fit the narrative.
Caveat – plenty of other websites claim otherwise.
“Hundreds of flights cancelled as winter storm and cold sweeps the US”
I think 2022 is less and likely to make it anywhere near the record books for record heat, whether in the UK or globally.
Mark – the BBC Weather guy gave it a very brief mention after 6pm news.
had it been heatwave or forest fires, well that fits the “nudge” narrative & would be pushed.
In fairness, that BBC article does play it with a straight bat, unlike the Guardian:
“Historic heat to extreme chill: why is the US experiencing a cold snap?
Blistering cold events are becoming more stark and pose a threat not only to humans but to entire ecosystems”
Despite the headline, I can see no detailed explanation as to what’s going on, beyond the obvious, that a cold front is moving swiftly and dramatically down from the Arctic. That’s “what” rather than “why”, in my book. The whole article is written in climate apocalypse language, of course, and ends with:
Was there not a film about this sort of weather back in 1987 Trains, Planes and Automobiles with John Candy and Steve Martin. A comedy about trying to get home for Thanks Giving in a snowstorm .
Mark & James
as Mark says, they have now covered it, showing how bad/cold it is.
they also said it’s the worst in about 30yrs I think (so that film has it about right).
ps – wonder if they will report how many died due to “Arctic bomb cyclone”
I hope not many, as long as they can get heat from some source.
A disgracefully misleading (website front page) headline from the BBC:
“Canada’s polar bear population plummets – government report”
The report isn’t about Canada’s polar bear population, it’s about a small part of the polar bear population in the western Hudson Bay region. The BBC report does its best to blame climate change for an estimated 27% decline over 5 years in that specific area’s polar bear population, but if you persevere, we learn:
So it’s not decline at all, rather it’s migration. Perhaps they’re moving south, in view of the weather in North America just now!
It isn’t just north America:
“Heavy snow in Japan kills at least 17
Many deaths caused by people falling from roofs or being buried underneath thick piles of snow sliding off rooftops”
The 1987 film referred to above might have been referring back to 1977:
“US braces for more deaths as ‘blizzard of the century’ grips nation
Rescue crews struggle to reach stranded residents in Buffalo, New York, where dozens have been killed in winter storms”
On the back of extreme cold and snow in north America and Japan, watch the narrative change subtly – from global warming, to climate change, to climate crisis, I expect the next iteration to be extreme weather.
“2022 will be warmest year ever for UK, Met Office says”
This links to the Met Office report, whose figures at this stage are provisional, but I imagine they will be confirmed next week:
Interestingly, although they are claiming it as the hottest year, not one of the individual seasons – not even summer (at 4th warmest) – was the hottest season recorded in the UK. The warmest (relatively speaking) was autumn, which was the 3rd warmest, spring was 5th warmest, and winter was 8th warmest.
I notice that the BBC – which had been playing the US winter cold with a fairly straight bat – has now cottoned on to how the Guardian is reporting it, and has stopped highlighting the tragic number of deaths caused by the weather across north America over the last few days, but is now reporting in its headlines on the still tragically large, but rather smaller numbers in New York state instead. The headline on the front page of the BBC website no longer refers to 60+ deaths, but instead reads “Death toll rises to 34 in New York after winter storm”. Click on it, and the headline becomes:
“US winter storm death toll rises as bad weather drags on”
If you can be bothered to read the story (and I suspect and fear some people just skim headlines, which is why I imagine the BBC plays these games), and you do find out the extra information:
After the excitement of record January temperatures in parts of Europe for a few days, I see that snow is forecast to return to the European ski slopes this week. Meanwhile:
“In photos: Severe cold wave grips north India”
“Widespread damage to California coast in wake of major storms”
So much for eternal drought caused by man-made climate change.
“Climate change: Europe and polar regions bear brunt of warming in 2022”
Lots of sensationalism, but the bottom line is:
The BBC didn’t bother to provide a link to the Copernicus report, but it’s easy enough to find:
Dotted among the heating hype are some other pieces of climate news, such as:
The more detailed report is here:
Interestingly that “fifth warmest” appears to be a close run thing:
So, despite rushing the headline out, it might turn out not to be the 5th warmest year after all. If not, what’s the betting that any downgrading won’t receive the same publicity as the initial report?
I think NOAA’s annual report on the global climate for 2022 is due out on Thursday, so watch this space.
I meant to cite this from the detailed Copernicus report:
Hot on the heels of Copernicus telling us that 2022 was the 5th warmest year on record, NOAA tells us it was the 6th warmest:
“2022 was world’s 6th-warmest year on record
Antarctic sea ice coverage melted to near-record lows”
The report commences with these words:
They (the opening eight words) strike me as a gross exaggeration, given that temperatures peaked in 2016, and the temperature bars accompanying the summary show at best a static trend since then, and arguably one of slight cooling since 2016.
The report itself is sensationalist, with its “Selected [and they are selected – perhaps selective would be a more appropriate word] Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2022” being skewed towards alarm. But then this is the organisation that repeated the claim that one-third of Pakistan was under water at one point last year (it wasn’t).
But it still had to admit:
So, at least arguably, no cause for alarm, and no warming trend since 2016.
Needless to say the Guardian has a field day:
“Warm 2022 makes the past eight years hottest ever recorded
World Meteorological Organization data shows last year’s average temperature was 1.15C more than pre-industrial levels”
And it repeats – for the umpteenth time – the false claim about “flooding that inundated approximately a third of Pakistan”.
As always – weather not climate – but rather extreme (the wrong way for “world on fire” alarmists)@
“Weather tracker: record rain for California, -62C in Siberia
It’s been very wet in San Francisco and parts of New Zealand, while extreme cold has swept across Russia”
“Global Warming Trend Slumps After Pausing for 20 of the Last 24 Years”
from your Copernicus report –
“ERA5 shows 2022 to be fifth warmest year, though only marginally warmer (by between 0.03 and 0.05°C) than 2022, 2018 and 2015, and marginally cooler (by 0.04°C) than 2017.”
they call “0.03 and 0.05°C” marginal!!!!
have always wondered what error bars they use & still make these statements as a fact?
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“Warning of unprecedented heatwaves as El Niño set to return in 2023
Scientists say phenomenon coupled with growing climate crisis likely to push global temperatures ‘off the chart’”
All sorts of terrible predictions accompany this article, including:
Who knows? Certainly not I. But all being well I will review that prediction in 12 months’ time.
Prof James Hansen, at Columbia University – thought he had retired – seems not.
I wonder if this will make it to NOAA’s summary of climate events in January 2023?
“China: Northern city of Mohe reports coldest temperature”
Of course, the BBC is quick to tell us:
“North Korea issues ‘extreme cold’ weather alert”
Don’t, whatever you do, get the wrong idea, though. The BBC earnestly assures us:
“Afghanistan: Freezing weather kills at least 124 people”
dfhunter, well spotted.
It’s a tragic story, but the truth remains that extreme cold kills far more people than extreme heat, however much the Guardian might try to obscure that fact. The BBC tends to put “extreme weather” stories on the science & environment section of the website, but stories about extreme cold have been coming thick and fast (too fast for their liking, I imagine), so I see they buried this one in the Asia section of the website, and it got nowhere near the science & environment section. Didn’t fit the narrative, I suppose.
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“Millions in US north-east brace for ‘once-in-a-generation’ Arctic blast
Meteorologists warn frigid weather could bring record-breaking low temperatures to New York, New Jersey and New England”
“Weather tracker: extremes of heat and cold hit South and North America
Conditions in parts of South America up to 10C above average as US records its coldest ever temperature”
Yes, there’s this:
But there’s also this:
January’s NOAA report is in, and it still isn’t getting warmer:
“Earth had its 7th-warmest January on record”
Much is made of low sea-ice, the new low temperature records in Asia aren’t mentioned, but they do admit that global tropical cyclones were below average. They also admit that Oceania had its coolest January since 2007. The nature of the reporting is such that it’s increasingly difficult (especially given the parroting at the time of the claim that the Pakistan floods last year saw one-third of that country under water) to regard NOAA as anything other than an alarmist organisation.
“What you need to know about this week’s wild weather”
But there’s more cold than warm…
The unusual warmth in some areas is, perfectly reasonably, also worth a mention. What’s behind it all?
And just when I thought they weren’t going to make the inevitable connection, the article finishes with:
I bet it will!
“Study Finds Zero Loss of Antarctica Sea Ice – But BBC Spins as “New Record Low””
Worth a read, IMO.
On BBC TV news today (with a 5 sec pic of snow in Morocco) – something like “A fruit and veg shortage on shop shelves across the UK could last weeks, as stormy weather disrupts the harvest at farms in Spain and north Africa. Production of tomatoes, strawberries and peppers across the region has been hit by ‘difficult weather conditions’, the British Retail Consortium said.”
only google post on this I could find & source for the above quote –
can you guess what is blamed?
partial quote –
“In 2021, the World Health Organisation warned that more frequent extreme weather due to climate change will disrupt global food systems.
A report said the crisis could undo 50 years of progress in health and reducing poverty, with the impact on agriculture one of the main challenges.”
Difficult weather conditions is presumably a euphemism for cold. Extreme weather is now taking over from heat. At least they’re not blaming Brexit…
“Los Angeles blizzard warning is first since 1989”
I must, in fairness, mention the flip side of the coin:
However, the area of north America affected by unusual cold seems to be increasing, and the area reported to be setting heat records seems to be shrinking – it has now reduced to “parts of the US southeast”.
Still it goes on in California:
“California pounded by snowfall as storms shutter national parks”
There’s more from California:
“Unprecedented snowfall on US west coast is ‘once-in-a-generation’ event
California governor declares state of emergency in 13 counties while Portland, Oregon, sees second snowiest day in history”
How does this fit with the world frying alarmist agenda? Well, it doesn’t, but you can guarantee it will be deemed to be consistent with it:
“super unusual” said Bianca Feldkircher, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, wonder what she calls Hot spells.
at least they quote ““This rain and snow bucked the trend and it’s highly unexpected,” said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist and former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist. “It’s like once in a generation.”…
I think I remember Ryan from old Climate Audit days, seemed to push back on the “planet is doomed” meme.
ps – nothing on this on the UK TV news I have seen, drought (linked to climate change/maybe/) in France & Spain, on the BBC News today
“Coldest day of year expected in parts of UK next week
Yellow warnings for snow and ice for most of Scotland and north-east England on Monday and Tuesday”
“Snow and travel delays expected amid cold snap”
It’s weather, not climate, but it’s a bit embarrassing for the alarmists, all the same.
“Lake Tahoe’s Emerald Bay completely freezes over for the first time in 30 years
The rare event is the result of the region experiencing its snowiest season in 70 years, with more storms expected to hit the state”
Meanwhile NOAA’s monthly report for February is in:
“February 2023 was Earth’s 4th warmest on record
Europe saw its second-warmest winter as global sea ice set a new record low”
4th warmest? I can’t argue with it, but I’m not sure how when you analyse what they say about different regions:
So that 7th warmest, a top 20 finish (where in the top 20 not specified – though in the detail we learn that for South America it was the 13th warmest, and Asia was the 7th warmest – but it’s probably safe to assume it’s not at the top of the list) and a non-top 20 finish. That adds up collectively to 4th warmest?
Also in the detail, we learned that the Caribbean islands had their coolest February and winter since 2012, and Oceania had its coolest summer since 2012.
I should have provided links for the February 2023 report by NOAA. First there is the brief summary:
Then one in a little more detail:
The latter does provide a little more context, so I assume that the climate alarmism in the first one is for public and media consumption. The second link takes the reader to a page which does at least include things like this:
It rather gratuitously went on to take the sting out of those cooling references by adding:
It will be interesting to see how (if!) they report on the cold and snow in the USA, including California, when March is over.
In the interests of balance, I find the following in the guardian, to my surprise:
“Weather tracker: why is it so cold in California at the moment?
Precipitation has made western US very cold and wet, with one ski lodge declaring snowiest season on record”
The first 5 paras are devoted to the cold and precipitation in California, including this:
It then goes on to talk about the heat in Spain, so I have to concede that the Guardian has for once mentioned cold more than heat in a weather/climate report.
NOAA’s report on March 2023 is in, and it again screams a global headline that seems adrift from the detail continent by continent. I can only assume that the warmer ocean temperatures that have been claimed recently push up the global average temperature, since the land temperatures weren’t breaking records in March:
“Earth just had its second-warmest March on record
Polar sea ice coverage for March 2023 ranked second smallest recorded”
So far so scary. Yet:
And Oceania saw its 17th warmest March on record.
Continents saw the 2nd, 4th, 4th, 10th, 17th and outside top 20th warmest March, yet overall it’s 2nd?
And Iceland recorded its coldest March since 1979.
As for storms:
Not mentioned in that headline, but included in the detail, is the fact that the western Pacific Ocean saw the formation of no named storms in the first quarter of the year, and that this has happened only 13 times in the last 43 years.
It looks as though the failure of the land to warm in accordance with the climate prognostications doesn’t matter. A warming ocean is being used both to claim ever higher global temperature averages, and is now also the next cause for climate angst, apparently:
“Climate change: recent, rapid ocean warming alarms scientists”
The article comes complete with scary red graphics.
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Mark, I woke up to this on the BBC news this morning and went straight to the article, to discover that it is in fact the usual false information and alarmist BS from the BBC.
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“Weather tracker: An unusually chilly start to May in India and eastern US
Record minimum temperatures observed in northern India, as clashing conditions bring thunderstorms in US”
“April Mediterranean heatwave ‘almost impossible’ without climate crisis
Extreme event would have been expected once in 40,000 years before global heating, scientists estimate”
And the exceptional cold in India. How likely did the “climate crisis” make that, I wonder?
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Oh God, it’s hard to keep up with these jokers at WWA. They keep churning out this rubbish. I haven’t looked at it yet but it’s almost certain that the statement “almost impossible without global heating” actually means “almost impossible WITH global heating” because their statistical analysis and model runs FAILED to adequately explain the extreme temperature divergence – meaning that factors other than a general warming MUST be responsible for the extreme temperature. I’ve exposed this con before, but they just keep at it, with the help of the main stream media.
Yep, as usual, they calculated a return period of once every 400 years for this 3 day ‘heatwave’, even in the current warmer climate – and that was a very uncertain figure. The models all greatly underestimated the observed intensity of the April heatwave, but the authors nevertheless concluded that climate change made the event much more likely! They called it a “super rapid analysis”. I call it super rapid BS.
“Summer weather: will there be a heatwave?”
Is the BBC whistling in the dark with that headline, to keep its spirits up?
Well, that’s no surprise, given that the BBC and the Met Office have been banging on about the likelihood of a drought due to climate change…
April’s results are in, and NOAA is still using the warm oceans to say it’s been warm, when land temperatures aren’t (overall) so high at all:
“April 2023 was Earth’s fourth warmest on record
Southern Hemisphere saw its warmest month on record; Global ocean temperature reached a record high for April”
Statistically insignificant? Be that as it may, looking at the temperature by continent, and there’s nothing to see here, so the warm claim must be driven by the seas:
And yet, although the seas are warm (according to NOAA) they’re still not as warm as in 2016 (though that difference may also be statistically insignificant), so to my simple brain something doesn’t add up.
that can only be because there is so much water in that hemisphere – land temperatures being joint ninth warmest (South America); 4th warmest (Africa, though much of it is in the northern hemisphere); and outside the top 20 (Oceania). Also Antarctic sea ice was only the third lowest (for April) on record. The map of the world tagged with “extreme” events doesn’t really show anything extreme either. There’s not much to see here, yet NOAA says there is.
If it’s a press release on the subject of ‘climate change’, you start out with the default assumption that EVERYTHING they say is LIES. Then (if you can be bothered), you sort the disinformation from the outright lies, the misinformation from the disinformation, and the half-truths from the misinformation, and then what you are left with should be the truth – and you might need a microscope in order to see it!
Mark, on the BBC re. last year’s 40.3C ‘record’ set at RAF Coningsby:
“What’s the risk it’ll get that hot again this year? It’s extremely unlikely. Scientists estimate that – in our current climate – the hottest parts of the country would only expect the temperature to reach those record levels about once every 1000 years. So if it were to happen again in 2023 that would be very worrying indeed.”
Sounds like a challenge to me. Can they find a digital thermometer on a runway or aircraft taxiing zone, somewhere in central or southern England, which will come up with the goods on one really hot day of the year? Then they can say the immortal words: ‘be afraid, be very afraid’.