It’s official: 2018 is only the 5th warmest summer on record in Central England, beaten by a full half a degree by 1976, closely followed by 1826, before we started belching out planet-destroying CO2. Glum faces all around at Warmist HQ. Good grief, we couldn’t even manage to beat 2003, the classic climate changed summer heatwave which Peter Stott got hold of to pioneer the incontestable, irrefutable, empirical science of extreme weather attribution. It’s not good. We seem to be getting less and less bang for our buck, the more we pump CO2 into the atmosphere.
I guessed the Met Office were disappointed this morning when they released this lame tweet:
Translated, it meant ‘Damn, we’re going to have to report that Summer 2018 did not make it into the record books’.
As of the time of writing, the Met Office have still not tweeted the bad news about summer 2018. Poor lambs. You have to feel sorry for them. UK figures still haven’t been released by the looks, but I don’t expect there to be much consolation for warmists there either.
But they’ve been saying for days that it was going to be a record so that’s all the public will hear about it.
It gets worse. The “global heatwave” in July that Paul recently reported on has also gone AWOL in August according to the latest UAH update. We’re back to where we were in May/June.
I enjoyed the summer between mid-May and the end of July which, where I live, in Cumbria were unusually warm and dry. But August has been cool and wet, and the year started cold and seemed reluctant to warm up. Indeed it was still much colder than usual in early May. We seem to have had a 6 months winter, 2 weeks of spring, 10 weeks of summer, and autumn started a month ago.I wonder when next winter will start?
September 1st and it feels like summer again here! Glorious weather, but north easterlies look to be setting in next week, so the edge might be taken off the temperatures.
Jaime, you state
I was wondering. Is this the same Peter Stott who was quoted in the Guardian in 2012, after a series of unusually wet and cold summers
Or is it the same Peter Stott quoted by the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee Report “Heatwaves: adapting to climate change” (published 18 July 2018, a day when the Met Office was claiming a probable new temperature record) on Page 6
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Wonder why Peter Stott is retweeting this obvious misinformation? CET has 2018 in 5th place.
Peter is retweeting incorrect data to maintain consistency.
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Pretending what happens with UK weather is a guide to the rest of the world is never going to work, as this report from Iceland shows.
So far the summer of 2018 is the worst on record in Reykjavík
BY STAFF | JUL 3 2018
June saw less sunshine than any year since reliable monitoring began by the Icelandic Meteorological Office, more than 100 years ago. May also set a record for the wettest May on record. Unfortunately there is nothing to suggest July will be much better
They can’t even say that the hot summer caused loads of heatwave deaths because the death rate was well below average but it was up during our cold spring.
They can’t, but they did Tiny.
Why let facts get in the way?
Here’s a thought provoked by the (incorrect) Bob Henson tweet quoted by Jaime above:
If the importance of these figures is not in the temperatures themselves, but in what they might do to us, or the planet, or its biosphere, then shouldn’t we be looking at what happened when temperatures were equally catastrophic back in 1826 and 1976?
(I remember 1976 because I was living in Paris in a flat with no fridge or air conditioning. Now I’m living 500 miles and a couple of °C further south, with both, so I’m not bothered.)
Anyone in the past two centuries in course of an existence of 80 years or so will have experienced one or other of these exceptional events, and most of us pulled through. Tens of millions have died in weather related events in that time (e.g. millions in droughts and famines in pre-communist China) but I’ll wager that not many of these deaths were due to the CET peaks.
Of course, we are affected by second order effects of extreme heat on the biosphere, and I believe most of these act on time periods of less than a year. I mean, your average bee or butterfly or blade of wheat reacts to temperatures and precipitation in the here and now. So any disastrous results of current man-made extreme temperatures would have been equally disastrous in 1826 or 1976. What happened then? How many species were lost? What effect did they have on Lord Stern’s predictions? Does anyone know, or care?
The Express article that Jaime points to states
I like to put figures in context, so I looked up the ONS Dataset : Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales
There they have detailed data from 2006 to July 2018. Estimating the excess deaths needs some estimation of trends. However, some indication of excess deaths can be gleaned from taking the variation from the average. In July 2018 there were 40,624 recorded deaths, as against an average of 38,987 deaths in July in the years 2006-2018. There were therefore 1,637 deaths more than average.
But every month this year has been higher than average. Below I have graphed the variation by month.
January is many times more significant than July. In the first seven months of this year there were 30,000 more deaths recorded than the January-July average for 2006 to 2018. But is this primarily due to the cold start to the year followed by a barbecue summer? Looking at the variations from average 300,000 deaths for the period January to July period, it does not seem this is the case.
Looking at individual months, if extreme temperatures alone caused excess deaths I would expect an even bigger peak during in January 2010 when there was record cold, than this year. In January 2010 there were 48,363 recorded deaths, against 64,157 in January 2018 and a 2006-2018 average of 52,383. Clearly there is a large seasonal element to deaths as the average for July is 39,091, or three-quarters of the January level. But discerning the temperature related element is extremely tricky, and any estimates of excess deaths to a precise number should be treated with extreme caution.
It’s simple a matter of redefining summer – problem solved !
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I have expanded the comment above in a post of my own.
It is very difficult to discern a clear impact of the summer heatwave on the death rate.
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Simon Lee is a climate propagandist as far as I can see. Note he’s using the CET maximum daily temperatures which only go back to 1878, therefore excluding the exceptionally warm summer of 1826. Also, maximum daytime temperatures are strongly correlated – naturally – to hours of sunshine and cloud cover, plus the level of moisture in the soil. Hot, exceptionally dry summers, typical of meteorological blocking, will produce high maximum daytime temperatures. Nothing much to do with CO2. He tweeted also about summer 2018 being second only to 1976 in terms of max temperature – since 1878. Obviously, reporting that is preferable to reporting that 2018 was only the fifth warmest summer in terms of mean daily temperature – if you want to get the climate alarmist message out. I wonder why he did not report on summer minimum temperatures because, as we all know, CO2 warming affects nighttime temperatures more than daytime temperatures, so if you were looking for evidence of GHG warming in seasonal trends, you’d look at the minimum temperatures. Guess what? Summer 2018 comes a disappointing 10th warmest since 1878 in terms of minimum night time temperature. So this summer is hardly the poster child for global warming, contrary to the efforts by propagandists like Stott, Ward, Lee et al to convince us otherwise.
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If you plot the maximum temperatures at 1700 hours from May 9th to October 12th, but exclude July 2nd to 14th, you can clearly observe global warming from 1937 to 2015 (if you leave out 1976 and 2003).
Colour me sceptical, but the Met Office tell us that in England, 2018 was hotter than 1976 and hence the hottest summer on record since 1910. In the UK they say it was the joint hottest summer on record, matching 2006, 2003 and 1976, but NI, Wales and Scotland were not record warm. Hmmm. As we’ve seen, in Central England, summer 1976 was a full half degree warmer than 2018, but the England regional weather station data monitored since 1910 awards the top spot to 2018. I can only surmise that higher temperatures in the East of England (which central England doesn’t cover) contributed to the ‘record-breaking’ 2018. But the Met office is now happy and the media are more than willing to obligingly report on the ‘hottest summer evah’ despite a crap August.
Perhaps the excess heat that made it a record can be found at Heathrow?