Section 1.1 of the Climate Change Act 2008: ‘It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the 1990 baseline.’
1. It’s unachievable.
Many vehicles and machines (used for example in mining, agriculture, heavy transportation, emergencies, commercial shipping and aviation, the military and construction) and products (for example concrete, steel, plastics – all needed for the construction of renewables – fertilisers, pharmaceuticals, anaesthetics, lubricants, solvents, paints, adhesives, insecticides, insulation, tyres and asphalt) essential to life and wellbeing require the combustion of fossil fuels or are made from oil derivatives; there are no easily deployable, commercially viable alternatives. Our civilisation is based on fossil fuels; something that’s unlikely to change for a long time.
Wind is the most effective source of renewable electricity in the UK … but: (i) the substantial costs of building the huge numbers of turbines needed for Net Zero, (ii) the complex engineering and cost challenges of establishing a stable, reliable non-fossil fuel grid by 2035 (2030 for Labour) – not least the need to cope with a vast increase in high voltage grid capacity and local distribution, (iii) the enormous scale of what’s involved (immense amounts of space and of increasingly unavailable and expensive raw materials, such as so-called ‘rare earths, required because, unlike fossil fuels, the ‘energy density’ of wind is so low), and (iv) the intermittency of renewable energy (see 2 below), make it most unlikely that the UK will be able to generate sufficient electricity for current needs let alone for the mandated EVs and heat pumps plus industry’s requirements and other demands such as the predicted growth of AI.
In any case, the UK doesn’t have enough skilled technical managers, electrical and other engineers, electricians, plumbers, welders, mechanics and other tradespeople (probably about a million) to do the multitude of tasks essential to achieve Net Zero – a problem worsened by political demands for massively increased house building.
‘Net Zero’ means that, where emissions are unavoidable, equivalent amounts must somehow be removed from the atmosphere. There’s no detailed, costed (or indeed any) plan for this, thereby invalidating the entire project.
2. It would be socially and economically disastrous.
Neither political party’s all-renewable energy project includes a fully costed engineering plan for the provision of comprehensive grid-scale back-up when there’s little or no wind or sun; a problem that’s exacerbated by the pending retirement of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants. Both are now talking of building new gas-fired power plants – thereby undermining Net Zero – but they’ve not published any detail and, in any case, intend it seems to fit them with carbon capture and underground storage systems – an unproven, wasteful and expensive technology that hasn’t been shown to be viable on a national scale. This issue is desperately important: without full back-up, electricity blackouts would be inevitable – ruining many businesses and causing dreadful problems for millions of people, including health consequences threatening everyone and in particular the poor and vulnerable.
Even more serious is the fact that, because there’s no coherent plan for the project’s delivery, little attention has been given to overall cost. All that’s clear is that it would almost certainly be completely unaffordable: for example, a recent National Infrastructure Commission projection of £1.3 trillion is probably far too low – estimates in excess of £3 trillion seem likely to be more accurate. The borrowing and taxes required for costs at this scale would destroy Britain’s credit standing and put an impossible burden onto millions of households and businesses.
Net Zero would have two other dire consequences:
(i) As China essentially controls the supply of key materials (for example, lithium, cobalt, aluminium and so-called rare earths) without which renewables cannot be manufactured, the UK would greatly increase its already damaging dependence on it, putting its energy and overall security at most serious risk.
(ii) The extensive mining and mineral processing operations required for renewables are already causing appalling environmental damage and dreadful human suffering throughout the world, affecting in particular fragile, unspoilt ecosystems and many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people; the continued pursuit of Net Zero would make all this far worse.
3. It’s pointless.
For two reasons:
(i) It’s absurd to regard the closure of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting plants in the UK and their ‘export’ mainly to SE Asian countries, commonly with poor environmental regulation and often powered by coal-fired electricity, as a positive step towards Net Zero. Yet efforts to ‘decarbonise’ the UK mean that’s what’s happening.
(ii) Most major non-Western countries – the source of over 75% of GHG emissions and home to 84% of humanity – don’t regard emission reduction as a priority and, either exempt from or ignoring any obligation to reduce their emissions, are focused instead on economic and social development, poverty eradication and energy security. As a result, global emissions are increasing and are set to continue to increase for the foreseeable future. The UK is the source of less than 1% of global emissions – perhaps 1.5% if ‘exported’ emissions are somehow included – so further emission reduction cannot have any impact on the global position.
In other words, the Net Zero policy means the UK is legally obliged to pursue an unachievable, disastrous and pointless policy – a policy that would probably result in Britain’s economic destruction.
Robin Guenier – April 2024
Climate Scepticism 
There are two ways to stop the net zero insanity
1) let it continue until a good dose of reality stops it
2) vote for parties who don’t support it
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Concerning the point you make that our civilisation is built upon fossil fuels (and is totally dependent upon them) this brought back a memory of making this point in UEA’s main lecture hall where every year I used to ask 110-140 undergraduates to identify something that didn’t involve the involvement of fossil fuels. Over 7 years only one person came close, suggesting their self-knitted woollen purse. Even that failed when it turned out the knitting needles had been plastic.
It is possible to come up with such an item, but it takes a great deal of thought. My challenge amply illustrates our current absolute dependence upon fossil fuels as essential feedstocks or energy.
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Lots of people get bogged down in the weeds of the engineering challenge and logistics involved to achieve Net Zero when they rarely question whether we need to do it at all. The answer is we don’t. CO2 is not the thermostat regulator for the planet. There’s not a scrap of irrefutable evidence to prove that it is.
It’s only below 300ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere when changes in the concentration has an effect on the amount of energy reflected back. Above that level, any change has zero additional impact. Currently, the concentration of CO2 is approximately 420ppm, so adding any more does not increase how much energy is reflected in the manner of a greenhouse.
It’s the output from the sun (which is not a constant) and our relative position to it that dictates changes in global temperatures. The earth’s orbit is impacted by the relative positions of the larger planets of the solar system.
CO2 only rises in response to an increase in global temperature due to amount of CO2 that can be dissolved in the oceans at any given temperature and the partial pressure of that gas above the fluid. See Henry’s Law. The irony is that the more CO2 we extract from the atmosphere, the more CO2 the oceans will release to re-establish the balance between dissolved CO2 and its partial pressure in the atmosphere.
Anyone that claims we should reduce CO2 emissions is either lying or is scientifically clueless. Or both.
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Can we have a new version of ‘I’m a celebrity, get me out of here!’ where politicians, journalists, climate activists and assorted other Net Zero talking heads are challenged to exist for a month outside, in a temperate climate zone, without any products (including food and drink) derived from hydrocarbons. They can request any stuff from the outside which is zero carbon, if they can think of it, which will make their month long net zero existence more bearable.
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Infographic: What’s Made from a Barrel of Oil? (visualcapitalist.com)
ps – Jaime – Great Idea for a reality show I would watch with great interest. need somebody to pitch it to TV execs, anybody know any?
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Well said Robin.
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Jo Nova has an important article this morning:
‘Just as power grids struggle, the AI and EV electricity monsters turn up for breakfast
As Western grids are teetering, people are suddenly realizing demand for electricity is about to skyrocket’
She concludes:
It’s a subject I touch on in the first part of my latest update (the second paragraph) – a problem that will get worse if the UK gets round to building any battery factories or data centres.
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Yes, de-stabilising and rendering unreliable our electricity production at the same time as increasing demand (both deliberately, by “de-carbonising” transport and heating, etc, and by the growth of things like AI and crypto-currencies) is quite extraordinarily stupid. Regrettably, the stupidity of it doesn’t seem to register with those in charge.
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Mark, I begin to wonder if anyone is really “in charge”. Who do you believe has this power? I suspect there are many diverse voices each singing their own song.
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Alan, MPs (and also, annoyingly, unelected peers) are in charge in theory, and to an extent, in practice. They are the people who passed the Climate Change Act, with scarcely a dissenting vote, and they are the people who nodded through (after a few minutes’ discussion) the net zero requirement when Theresa May was PM. They are the only people with power to repeal or amend that crazy piece of legislation.
Behind the scenes, of course, there are plenty of vested interests/true believers, lobbying and working away to prevent any retreat – green billionaires; the BBC; the Guardian; civil servants; renewable energy companies; academics; the likes of the IEA, etc. At the risk of being labelled a conspiracy theorist, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese and Russian governments are also doing their bit, since it’s in their interests that the west commits economic suicide, though that’s a tightrope for the Chinese – they need us to trash our industry so that we become dependent on them for the things that we need, but they do need us to be able to afford to buy them. If the west collapses completely, then that wouldn’t be in their interests.
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INCONCEIVABLE STUPIDITY ?
Sometimes I look for echoes of our current parlous situation in the writings of former times. On this occasion, however, I find that a recent book by a former Bank of England chief is very illuminating: Mervyn King, “The End of Alchemy “, Abacus, 2016, at page 88:-
“In his account of the origins of the First World War, historian Max Hastings quotes an exchange that took place in 1910 between a student and the commandant of the British Army staff college. Surely, the student suggested, only ‘inconceivable stupidity on the part of statesmen’ could precipitate a general European war. Brigadier-General Henry Wilson replied, ‘Inconceivable stupidity is just what you’re going to get.’ “
Regards, John.
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O/T perhaps, but I recommend the End of Alchemy to anyone interested in how the Bank of England works, monetary and fiscal policy etc. I found it very interesting and thought-provoking.
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More than that Mark – ‘the End of Alchemy’ is also a pretty harsh look at how we’re governed. I too recommend it. Thanks to John for the reminder.
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I believe Mark that you are agreeing with me. So many players, so many different views professing a common cause but actually playing different, and commonly antagonistic, tunes. So much so that you can almost predict the poor outcomes and the supportive messaging. All so familiar. Feeling rather bereft today. Don’t know why. If the rain keeps away will devote my time to gardening.
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I feel a bit overwhelmed this morning. First there was Jo Nova with an article on a subject I touched on in my update and now there are three more:
First, an interesting report on a Bloomberg interview with a renewable supporter who nonetheless believes that wind and solar are a ‘lousy business’. He correctly points to their huge delivery costs but somehow manages to overlook the intermittency problem.
https://www.americanexperiment.org/bloomberg-wind-and-solar-will-need-subsidies-indefinitely/
Then there’s Ross Clark telling us about Claire Coutinho’s attack on Labour for having a Net Zero policy that puts our security at risk because it in effect hands our energy security over to China – ignoring the fact that her policy is essentially no better.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/01/net-zero-threatens-our-national-security/
And thirdly an excellent article by Fraser Myers in Spiked about how the wrath of Europe’s farmers is terrifying the EU’s elites. As he says:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/04/01/the-fury-of-europes-farmers/
All are worth reading in full.
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Alan,
By and large I am agreeing with you, though I remain perplexed as to how almost the entirety of the membership of a bicameral legislature can have been so successfully captured in this way.
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Yet more relevant stuff: responding to an article in the Telegraph, Net Zero Watch’s Andrew Montford has described Coutinho’s plan to move renewables subsidies from electricity bills onto general taxation and gas bills as ‘sleight of hand’. He’s right.
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/coutinho-sleight-of-hand
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I said a few days ago that Lionel Shriver was one of my favourite journalists and a good novelist. Well she’s just been interviewed by Laura Dodsworth in the Daily Sceptic about her latest novel MANIA. I thought I’d share this extract:
[My emphasis]
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“I’m a celebrity …” -v- ”The Mikado” ?
Jaime, I have been considering for some time how the pleasures and pitfalls of Net Zero could be brought to a very large general audience so that they (and we!) can more clearly see the EROEI cliff before they (and we!) are unceremoniously herded over its edge by the motley assortment of ‘green’ evangelists, rent-seekers etc. Your not entirely tongue-in-cheek idea of a television show based upon “I’m a celebrity …” fits the bill rather well.
My slight problem with the “I’m a celebrity …” idea is that Net Zero is such a failure of policy/governance on so many levels that it does not, for me, catch the tenor of the ‘crime’ being perpetrated on the UK, its economy and its people.
I feel that something nearer to a TV version of the Mikado’s, “My object all sublime I shall achieve in time- To let the punishment fit the crime- The punishment fit the crime” would be much more appropriate to the “inconceivable stupidity” of the policy bind we find ourselves in. However, I must stop dreaming along such lines since, as far as I know, no actual crimes have been committed. And so any TV format that brings home the dire consequences of continuing on our current Net Zero trajectory would be very informative and helpful, especially if, to take up W.S. Gilbert’s refrain, “it is achieved in time” – although I am currently not at all hopeful in that regard.
Regards, John.
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John C,
Roger Hallam thinks that MPs, journalists and goodness knows who else are guilty of treason against the British people for not stopping climate collapse, so I think you’re entitled to say that the net zero madness represents a crime against the British people. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
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Robin – thanks for that “MANIA” link.
Partial Quote from the book –
“Exams and grades are all discarded, and smart phones are rebranded. Children are expelled for saying the S-word and encouraged to report parents for using it. You don’t need a qualification to be a doctor.“
Partial Quote from the auther –
“The most heartening aspect of the last 15 years for me has been the emergence of a cadre of independent thinkers who have been willing to risk their careers to say the suddenly unsayable. They give me hope for the future. You’re one of them, Laura.”
Power to your elbow, more people need to say the same thing.
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“Nobody is buying into the net zero madness
There’s no consensus that climate policy needs to hurt the living standards of ordinary Britons”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/02/green-energy-net-zero-heat-pumps-national-grid/
“…The ultimate challenge will be the wholesale conversion of electricity from coal, oil and gas to renewables – all without a satisfying answer to the question of what to do when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.…”
Redwood’s conclusion:
“…The truth is there are determined minorities on both sides of the argument. One group says it is essential people are made to change to stop the rise in temperatures, wanting tougher tax rises and bans on fossil fuels. One group says it is all nonsense, with a variable climate affected by many things in addition to human carbon dioxide. They dislike the government interfering and don’t worry about an extra degree of warming. The majority in the middle would like policy to be gently pointing in a lower carbon direction, but not in a way that would worsen their living standards.
If green prosperity is simply a convenient slogan, policymakers must be honest with voters about the consequences of net zero. Government astroturfing is no alternative for genuine consumer buy-in, nor can it paper over the myriad issues currently plaguing our renewable source alternatives. The real test of our energy transition hasn’t even begun.”
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Mark: the headline of that Redwood article is misleading. Plenty of people are buying into Net Zero: all major political parties, the whole of academia, most major institutions – even the general public who regularly tell pollsters that they support the policy. Now, although polls also show that the general public do not accept that the policy ‘needs to hurt the living standards of ordinary Britons’, I’m far from convinced that politicians, academia, institutions etc. don’t accept precisely that. That’s why I suspect that those who are calling for a referendum on Net Zero (including the Reform party) may be making a mistake. Of course, I could be wrong about that if pre-referendum a full debate with all the facts on the table was allowed. But, even then, I fear the debate might well get bogged down in dreadful and fruitless haggling about ‘climate science’ – painting those who oppose the policy as ‘deniers’. Depressing.
I think Net Zero will only be widely understood to be the potential disaster that it is when things begin to go wrong. And that, I suggest, could happen quite soon.
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Ross Clark has an article today about the difficulties a Labour administration would face in meeting its housebuilding promises. His sting in the tail is to question whether we have sufficient skilled tradespeople. Always on the lookout for an opportunity to mention Net Zero, I added this comment:
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Robin – you say “those who are calling for a referendum on Net Zero (including the Reform party) may be making a mistake”
How can it be a mistake? even if the vote is “haggling about ‘climate science’” the facts about the economic damage to UK families should win out.
Whoever wins at least the public have had a voice.
ps – the UNI vs Skills problem – agree.
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dfh: if there’s a referendum (unlikely), it’s critically important that we, the antis, win. But, for the reason I’ve stated – plus the fact that our opponents will move heaven and earth to ensure they win – we may not. Therefore it’s best not to have a referendum.
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There are many problems with referendums. The first, and most obvious one, is that we are supposed to live in a representative democracy, where Parliamentary legislators make the decisions on our behalf. We have no great history of referendums (unlike, say, Switzerland), and where resort has been had to referendums, it’s usually been to let MPs off the hook or to get a Prime Minister out of a hole.
They tend to be problematic. For instance the legislation that gave rise to the Brexit referendum was very badly drafted. It made provision for the remain campaign to be able to spend far more then the leave campaign. The basis on which the “official” organisations campaigning for leave and remain were selected, was shambolic.
It didn’t include any provision for the result to be binding on Parliament, which resulted in MPs and others being able to claim that there was no reason to implement it, with the result that we had years of in-fighting, Parliamentary stasis, and little else being discussed in the media for far too long. The establishment refused to accept the result and did everything in its power to ensure that Brexit didn’t happen. EU membership is hard-wired in to the establishment’s DNA – net zero is that and more. Imagine the chaos that would ensue in the event that – despite the obstacles that the establishment would put in its way when drafting the terms on which a net zero referendum might take place – the British public voted to halt net zero. It would be the Brexit chaos all over again, but this time on stilts.
Attracted though I am by the idea of a net zero referendum, I don’t see any way in which we could win it. The establishment has learned its lesson from the Brexit referendum, and won’t allow its wishes to be overturned in such a way ever again. They believed that the public would vote to remain in the EU, which is probably the only reason they allowed the referendum on Brexit to go ahead. I suspect they know there’s a real risk that – after a full and informative referendum campaign with a level playing field – the public would vote to ditch net zero. So they simply won’t let that happen. Any referendum would be on terms that would be stacked against us. And once they had won, the establishment would declare the issue closed for a generation.
Regrettably, I think the only way to overturn net zero is for it to crash and burn, for the public to realise what it means, to turn against it en masse, with the result that politicians have no alternative other than to drop it if they don’t want to spend decades in the electoral wilderness.
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The Speccie has an article this morning headed ‘How Britain smashed the slave trade’. It’s an excellent piece and well worth reading, but the reason I mention it here is because of this comment by Julian Hodgson (a relation Mark?):
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Never forgetSun Tsu’s first art of war:
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” That is exactly what is happening as Western governments pursue self-harming Green Energy policies. There is no better way to damage Western societies than by rendering their power supplies unreliable and expensive. From one point of view the promotion of “Green” ideologies in the West should be seen as a very successful branch of the long-term and continuing “The Cold War”. Cui bono Who Benefits ??
and
The late Professor Sir David MacKay:
“The dependence on Weather-Dependent “Renewable Energy” to power a developed economy is an Appalling Delusion”.
There’s so much delusion and I think it’s so dangerous for humanity that people allow themselves to have these delusions that they’re willing to not think carefully about the numbers and the realities, and the laws of physics and the realities of engineering… humanity really does need to pay attention to arithmetic, and the laws of physics.”
Arithmetic? Laws of physics? Engineering? They are lost on politicians, to our incalculable cost.
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Regarding a referendum on Net Zero.
This cannot be a bad idea. In a fair fight, we win, because the facts are on our side. The way to ensure a fair fight is a referendum campaign where both sides are equally financed and given the same air time and so forth.
We may feel sure that Net Zero will explode on its own, and that may be true. But how much damage will accrue in the meantime? Is the UK ever going to put itself back together after this? The present state of things does not inspire confidence. It feels almost as if inertia and bloody-mindedness is all that is keeping the show on the road. Everywhere you look, prospects are terrible. [Caveat: people can always take a series of examples and use them to “prove” that we are in a handcart to hell. Is this moment any different?]
There is also the rather sinister turn that events have taken, where we the proles are being gaslit about the cause of our woes. For example, that expensive energy is due to “over-reliance on fossil fuels.” Without much more open public discussion, we are at risk of taking more and more poison (badged as medicine) the sicker we get.
A referendum will not be permitted, until it is. I think back to the Brexit Party and how its challenge led to the referendum – seemingly as a measure to de-fang it. If enough people want something, they will have it. Even in Britain.
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Jit,
The problem is that you say “In a fair fight, we win, because the facts are on our side. The way to ensure a fair fight is a referendum campaign where both sides are equally financed and given the same air time and so forth.“
As I said in my last comment on this topic, they won’t allow a fair fight, they won’t allow both sides to be equally financed and they won’t ensure equal air time to both sides of the debate.
They didn’t in the Brexit referendum – the dice were well and truly loaded – and still they lost. They will never make that mistake again.
If Reform were to win the general election with a policy of allowing a referendum on net zero, then it might take place, but the media, civil service, state institutions, global institutions (UN, World Bank, EU, US Government – assuming Trump doesn’t win in November -European Central Bank, et al) and others with vested interests would interfere in the referendum to fight for net zero. It would never be a fair contest. In my view, Reform would do better to adopt a simple policy or reversing net zero, then if they won a majority (fantasy world – they won’t) they would have a mandate for it. Why complicate things with a fraught referendum?
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Ben Pile has published a most important article – ‘Time for MPs to Come Clean About the Green Blob’ – at the Daily Sceptic this morning. He makes a cogent case for Tory MPs who are critical or worried about the green agenda to make themselves heard. As he says:
He concludes:
Well worth reading in full. I intend to get this message to my MP. I hope others here may be able to do likewise.
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It’s probably not going to happen though is it, because for the past 4 years, not only has science, society and democracy been hijacked and captured by the Green blob and its host of Green blobbyists, it has been totally captured by the medical-industrial complex too, whose aims intersect significantly with the aims of those promoting Net Zero. To expose one would be risking exposing the other – and perhaps the overarching interests of those trillionaire blobbyists behind the entire eco-fascist/communist/globalist Great Reset.
As John rightly points out in his post on Michie, the fear propaganda behaviourist psychology practised by the proponents of lockdowns and NPIs is remarkably similar to that practised by the climate crisis scare-mongerers. It is no coincidence that the Green scam was ramped up considerably in concert with the restrictions placed upon us to control and eliminate a ‘deadly novel coronavirus’ cooked up in a lab. More is coming our way. The Tories would not want to risk exposing the main actors behind this fake ‘crisis’ drama.
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But Jaime, Ben isn’t calling for the Tory party to explain these things. Quite obviously – largely for the reasons you state – that isn’t going to happen. No, he’s calling for those Conservative politicians who have a ‘genuine concern for the future of this country’ – and there are some, albeit a minority – to explain, based on their own direct experience, how ‘regressive and anti-democratic policies have been imposed on the public’ by the ‘green blob’. I believe he’s right to call on for action by these people and have no doubt that, if they were to comply (far from unlikely), it would be an important step in the right direction. As I’ve said before, this is not the time to give up.
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I think we agreed above that, although it was just possible (no more than that) that a Net Zero referendum might end the wretched policy, the issue was essentially academic as a referendum was most unlikely to be held. I suggested that was unimportant as harsh reality must eventually highlight the absurdity and unacceptability of the policy, adding that I thought that could happen quite soon.
I’d like to reiterate that latter point and, at the risk of sounding over-optimistic, to add that, by ‘quite soon’, I mean well before we could experience the acutely damaging ‘crash and burn’ that some believe must happen before Net Zero’s is abandoned.
But just think about it – the signs of Net Zero’s impossibility are getting clearer by the day. For example, many of same politicians who are so keen on it are also anxious to jump on another fashionable bandwagon: artificial intelligence. But that means the construction of huge data centres – which, together with battery factories and the growth of crypto-currencies and quantum computing – mean a massively increased demand for electricity. All this (plus the need for substantial additional power for EVs and heat pumps) is happening now, just as we are closing worn-out nuclear, coal and CCGT power stations. The answer, the politicians seem to believe, is more and more ‘renewable’ power. But, for the reasons well-rehearsed here, that ‘solution’ faces huge, probably insurmountable, obstacles: costs, material shortages, a total distribution network update and, not least, the unsolved problem of wind and solar intermittency.
And, as well as all that, we’re faced by another reality: the UK’s serious skills shortage. Quite simply, we don’t have the skilled people needed to implement Net Zero – a shortage made far worse by current political pressure (yes, it’s the same politicians!) for hugely increased housebuilding. And of course someone has to build all those data centres.
I believe it’s already obvious that Net Zero cannot ever be implemented – including its near-term objectives – although our political ‘leaders’ have yet to realise that. But they will – they have no choice.
And something that’s impossible isn’t going to happen.
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It occurs to me that some renewables in the right place are perfectly O.K. I once contemplated a wind turbine in a rural garden and once had solar heated water in California). What we don’t want are is an absolute reliance upon renewables that screws up energy supply and pricing. The thought of ever increasing amounts of electricity pylons criss crossing our countryside is also just too much. So oppose Net zero itself but support decreasing our reliance upon fossil fuels as suppliers of all electricity I.e support TNZ (towards Net zero)?
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Alan, fossil fuels haven’t been suppliers of all electricity for a long time. So we’re stuck with many of our existing renewables anyway: I don’t think anyone is proposing that we get rid of them.
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Alan,
It’s nice to be in agreement with you. A measured and well thought-out plan for moving steadily towards net zero in a way that doesn’t bankrupt the country, destroy what’s left of our manufacturing sector, plunge poor people into greater poverty and trash our countryside would be fine by me.
It’s the uncosted rush to virtue signal at the expense of so many aspects of our country, in pursuance of “tackling” climate change (it won’t) that I oppose with every fibre of my being.
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Excellent article by Roger Caiazza on WUWT on the issues confronting New York in planning to get to zero fossil fuels by 2040. The plans call for “Dispatchable Emission-Free Resources” to back up wind and solar in place of fossil fuel generation. The discussion raises many technical challenges, including the fact that much of what’s needed is unproven at any scale or is even yet to be invented.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/04/06/renewable-energy-gap-characterization/
Are any such discussions happening here? If they are, there has not been any publicity. NY recognises that the timescale is tight and they are aiming for 2040. Perhaps they should invite Mr Milliband along to tell them how we’re going to do it 10 years sooner…..
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Thanks Mike for your reference to Roger Caiazza’s article – about a rare discussion when people who know what they’re talking about consider the problems of a 100% renewable grid. It’s an issue, again about New York, that’s been addressed comprehensively by Francis Menton: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/11/Menton-Energy-Storage-Conundrum.pdf.
For me alarm bells rang as soon as I came across the assertion that ‘dispatchable emission-free resources (DEFR)’ were required. True – but did the participants, despite their agreement that ‘that new technology is needed’ really understand the far-reaching implications of this? See the Menton article cited above. Their comments that ‘candidate technologies are not commercially available’ surely grossly understates the problem? As does the comment that ‘there are affordability concerns’.
One vitally important matter that seems to have been ignored is that, although these problems are bad enough given today’s electricity requirement, they’re going to get progressively much worse as the growth of EVs, heat pumps, AI, crypto-currencies and quantum computing begins to bite, vastly increasing the demand for electricity.
BTW Caiazza makes it clear that the NY authorities were not involved in these discussions and are – like ours – living in a dream-world:
Sadly that hope seems unlikely to be realised. And yet, as you say, Miliband seems to think he can solve all these problems 10 years sooner than NY.
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Surely Mark you cannot be absolutely certain that catastrophic climate change is totally, totally impossible, even if the chances are utterly remote. Thus I trust a few of your being fibres are reserved for this so so remote possibility.
Remember (was it Conan Doyle, speaking through Sherlock Holmes’s) dictum.
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Alan, I cannot speak for Mark but my view is that, if the continued emission of GHGs were likely to lead to catastrophic climate change (as some scientists maintain), the attempted implementation of the UK’s Net Zero policy (which would, as Mark fears, ‘bankrupt the country, destroy what’s left of our manufacturing sector, plunge poor people into greater poverty and trash our countryside’) would do nothing to avert it. Do you disagree?
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Alan – what Robin said.
I don’t believe there is even the remotest possibility of a catastrophic outcome from human-made climate change, but even if I did believe that, I would still oppose the UK’s uncosted, inadequately planned and ultimately futile attempt to avert it while most of the rest of the world is continuing to increase greenhouse gas emissions. There is no point at all in worsening our living standards, and therefore our ability to adapt to climate change if our attempts to mitigate it are rendered null and void by the rest of the world. The only logical policy in those circumstances is to do what can be done to ensure security of energy supply and to ensure our national finances are in the best possible position to see us through the “crisis”. Net zero is the opposite of that, utterly lacking in any logic at all.
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Mark, Robin
please give me some leeway. You cannot really believe that I really think that we should act on a remotest of possibilities that catastrophic climate change is possible. Having spent too long discussing communist-nudged nudging with John and getting more and more sad that my modest objections garnered no support, I ceased upon Mark’s extreme commentary on this thread, with him committing “every fibre of his being” to write a response that might be seen to be somewhat mirthful. Failed again!
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Alan,
Apologies for my humour bypass. I suppose it’s because net zero is such a vitally important subject, but not for the reasons its proponents believe.
It threatens to destroy our society and bankrupt the country, while making no measurable difference to the global climate. I despair that apparently intelligent, decent, well-meaning people have signed up to an act of such monumental folly, that they have ensured that it is now inserted into pretty much every aspect of our lives, that they are terrifying and brainwashing young people into believing it’s necessary, and that after all that, they think we are the ones who are crazy.
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Very well said Mark, I completely agree. What’s happening re Net Zero is (or in a rational world, should be) astonishing. Take for example that article by Roger Caiazza referred to above: about a discussion by reasonably knowledgeable people who, despite missing some key obstacles, concluded it was most unlikely that New York would meet its 100% renewable electricity by 2040 target. Yet Miliband thinks he can do it by 2030!
Alan: apologies from me as well.
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MikeH – thanks for the article by Roger Caiazza on WUWT link.
Partial quote which may have relevance to UK grid –
“I was interested in her comments on inverter-based resources relative to a dispatchable resources. She noted that 1,000 MW of offshore wind is equivalent to 100 MW of dispatchable resources in transmission security analyses. That means to replace the 2,000 MW of dispatchable Indian Point nuclear power that the State shut down a couple of years ago, 20,000 MW of offshore wind must be deployed. Note that the Climate Act mandates 9,000 MW of offshore wind which is far less than what is needed to simply replace Indian Point.”
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MikeH – as an added partial quote from the article by Roger Caiazza
“Conclusion
New York’s vocal proponents of the Climate Act believe that New York can “rapidly move away from fossil fuels and instead be fueled completely by the power of the wind, the sun, and hydro” and that “it could be done completely with technologies available”. The position that “it could be done completely with technologies available at that time” had an out-sized influence on the Climate Action Council decision to approve the Scoping Plan that guides the net-zero transition. After all, if there are no technological barriers then it is simply a matter of political will.
This session proves this belief is wrong. The work of Prof. C. Lindsay Anderson, Chair of Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering Cornell; Zach Smith, VP System Resource Planning, New York Independent System Operator; and Kevin Steinberger, Director, Energy and Environmental Economics all found that a new resource that has all the attributes of fossil-fired peaking units but without any emissions is needed. At some point, New York State is going to have to confront the fact that the naïve implementation plan based on rhetoric and not facts must be changed. Hopefully, the confrontation will occur before there is a catastrophic blackout.”
Wonder if major cities in the UK like London etc… have any clue what “keeping the lights on under Net Zero” will entail?
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The answer dfh must be No. But Roger Caiazza doesn’t seem to think that NY does either.
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Robin – that’s scary for NY & any major urban areas in the west. playing dice (craps) springs to mind.
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A message from Dreamland:
England could produce 13 times more renewable energy, using less than 3% of land – analysis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/09/england-could-produce-13-times-more-renewable-energy-using-less-than-3-of-land-analysis
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Robin,
I see that’s about a report prepared by Exeter University for Friends of the Earth. Enough said.
Needless to say , still no explanation of what we do when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.
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Yes Mark – nor is there anything about the vast costs of ‘renewables’, the severe shortages of materials, the hopelessly inadequate distribution network or the serious skills shortage (made worse by the demand for accelerated house building).
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“Net Zero Leaves U.K. Paying Five Times More for Electricity Than China”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/04/09/net-zero-leaves-u-k-paying-five-times-more-for-electricity-than-china/
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An excellent article Mark, thanks for the link. Note: it’s about much more than the headline. For example, here’s an extract:
True.
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A remarkable post by Jo Nova:
‘World to burn by 6pm, but only 3% of young voters say Climate Change is the top issue’
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/04/world-to-burn-by-6pm-but-only-3-of-young-voters-say-climate-change-is-the-top-issue/
An extract:
Do we have even one MP who could do that?
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Francis Menton has just published a splendid commentary about DEFR (Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resource) — i.e. the “resource” with all the good characteristics of fossil fuels but without any of the carbon emissions. It’s a devastating review of why hydrogen isn’t the answer.
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The Spectator has an excellent article today titled: Why academia failed to challenge trans ideology. I commented as follows, starting with an extract from the article:
It has – ahem – attracted the most up votes.
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Robin – Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
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The second most popular comment on the above Spectator article (by ‘Anitawales’) may, I suggest, be more telling than mine:
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An article in the Spectator today (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-apple-loses-against-china-so-will-the-west/) headed ‘If Apple loses against China so will the West’ is about how Apple, one of the few Western businesses with a product, in this case the iPhone, that’s preeminent throughout the world, is beginning to yield that leadership to China – something that’s described as ‘a snapshot of what is already happening in many other industries’.
The most liked comment said, correctly in my view, that the battle was lost 20 years ago when Western businesses moved their manufacturing and technology to China. My comment was the second most liked, but came in in a long way behind the leader:
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Robin; This sub-heading from the FT website echoes the themes you have been pushing:
“Strains in supply chain pose threat to UK renewables targets, report warns Government-commissioned analysis outlines threats such as a lack of crucial parts and shortage of key skills”
The article itself is behind a paywall.
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Oh dear – but not a surprise:
Strains in supply chain pose threat to UK renewables targets, report warns
Rachel Millard, Financial Times:
Government-commissioned analysis outlines threats such as a lack of crucial parts and shortage of key skills, with significant co-ordination across industry and government needed to resolve supply chain constraints
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Thanks Mike – I posted my reference to that FT article before I’d seen yours. As I said, the result of the analysis should not be a surprise – but I suspect it was.
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Robin; yes, it’s hard to understand why anyone would be surprised by something so elementary and obvious. I fear the same fate awaits much of the renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power.
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The Spectator has an article today (by Eliot Wilson, a clerk in the House of Commons from 2005 to 2016) on what, especially from our perspective, is interesting and important news: ‘It’s no surprise the SNP’s climate change law has failed’ (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/its-no-surprise-the-snps-climate-change-law-has-failed/). Reviewing the history of this embarrassing debacle (especially the fact that the Scottish government has consistently missed its climate targets), he notes how passing a declaratory law in an attempt to bind future governments is unlikely to work, commenting that
Here’s my comment, the third most popular:
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Thank you, Robin, for reminding me of Ayn Rand’s words; they have often been my companions in recent years while I have have contemplated the key questions:-
How did we in the West get into this mess?
And how do we get out of it (and stay out of it)?
A partial answer to the first question is suggested by the sub-title of this thread of yours, namely through adopting “Unachievable Disastrous Pointless” policies. So your words, and Rand’s, resonated with me recently while reading Phillip W. Gray’s ‘Totalitarianism, the basics’ (Routledge, 2023) where at page 17 he writes:-
“There is one other trait that should be mentioned here. Totalitarian governments will often engage in, and maintain, policies that look irrational (or even borderline insane) when viewed from the outside.”
I suspect that Varoufakis’s book ‘Techno Feudalism’ may also well have something useful to say – but that, for me, is future reading matter.
Regards, John C.
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Regarding the acknowledgement that Scotland is missing its “climate” target – not in fact a climate target since it will not have any effect on the weather – the first twenty minutes of last night’s PM made for a rather bizarre broadcast.
We had Evan Davis perplexed that the target had been missed, the Greens leader blaming his coalition partners (implicitly) for a lack of ambition in policies but assuring us that the next set of targets would be met, and a former SNP cog blaming the failure on a Machiavellian plot by the opposition to raise the target from 70 to 75%.
Don’t worry, was the consensus – we’ll make the big target, the 2045 one.
No-one seemed to realise that the target was always obviously impossible and that anyone claiming otherwise was either delusional or dissembling. The 2045 target likewise – but at least it’s far enough in the future that we can keep the fantasy going for another decade at least.
The key as so often is that virtue is displayed by an announcement, not an achievement.
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Thank you, John. I regret that I cannot answer your two key questions, but I’ve just started to read a novel that casts a clear light on the first. It’s ‘Mania’ by Lionel Shriver. Hilarious but deadly serious, it’s based on the reality that society today is willing to adopt manias – such as transgender theory, critical race theory and the climate catastrophe cult – that only a few decades ago would have been dismissed as absurd. What Shriver does is envision an alternative society where the ‘Mental Parity Movement’, backed by government, academia and the media, has become established – a society where discrimination based on intelligence is effectively outlawed and dissent can have serious consequences. She shows, very convincingly, how this has come about in much the same way as current manias have come about. What I think she’s trying to illustrate is that today’s ‘modern’ society is no different from earlier societies where other manias, such as phrenology and bloodletting – you name it, were established. It’s very clever and thought-provoking: I’ve only read a few chapters but I think I’m going to enjoy the rest.
BTW your extract from Phillip W. Gray’s book reminds me of another favourite saying, this time by Marcus Aurelius (Roman emperor, 161-180): ‘The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.’
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The Greens wondering whether the Scottish gov’t coalition is extreme enough for them. They do seem to be quite a waggy tail.
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Rather to my surprise Liz Truss has published a fairly good article (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/19/unaccountable-net-zero-elite-has-seized-control-of-britain/) on Net Zero in the Telegraph: ‘An unaccountable net zero elite has seized control of Britain – The zealous drive to net neutrality is making business less competitive, hitting taxpayers, and acting as a drag on economic growth’.
It doesn’t contain anything new for anyone here – but nonetheless it’s worth reading in full if possible. Here’s an extract:
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Meanwhile, as though determined to make her point:
“Chris Stark: Rishi Sunak has set us back, head of climate change watchdog says”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68863796
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One quote from that nonsense piece:
“Rishi Sunak has “set us back” on climate change and left the UK at risk of falling behind other countries, the head of a government watchdog has said.”
On what basis is falling behind other countries in trashing the economy and the energy system, a “risk”?
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Anyone who can spare an hour and twenty minutes really should watch Toby Young’s interview with the brilliant Lionel Shriver here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEFFqB5UAFE.
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As Mark has already mentioned, the BBC website had an article yesterday about an interview with Chris Stark (CCC head) by Laura Kuenssberg: Chris Stark: Rishi Sunak has set us back, head of climate change watchdog says (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68863796). The interview will be shown in full this morning, as will a follow-up interview with Claire Coutinho. Viewers were invited to send in any questions they would like Kuenssberg to ask Coutinho. So I did:
I don’t suppose it’ll be asked. But you never know.
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David Turver has a ‘must read’ this morning: ‘National Grid Resorts to Propaganda The National Grid is paying for shameless propaganda in the Guardian’ (https://davidturver.substack.com/p/national-grid-propaganda). His objective is to debunk the National Grid’s claims about the “myths swirling around clean energy and upgrading the grid”. He makes a wholly convincing case although I think he could perhaps have made some points more strongly – e.g. about the dangers of relying on interconnectors to solve renewable intermittency and the probable increase in demand for electricity (no mention of the likely demands of AI, data centres etc.).As Turver says, the biggest issue is why did the National Grid feel it necessary to commission and pay for such a blatant piece of propaganda.
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How to separate the wood from the trees!
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I recorded and just watched the Laura Kuenssberg programme. It was almost entirely about climate change and didn’t really come to very much because, as must be expected, everyone who appeared – Kuenssberg, Chris Stark, Claire Coutinho, Shabana Mahmood (shadow Justice Secretary), Chris Packham (!), a dreadful Libdem whose name I’ve forgotten and businessman Luke Johnson – with the honourable exception of Johnson who was calm and quite impressive – took it for granted that climate change was a serious challenge that Britain had to ‘address’. Not only was the science not discussed but nor were the practicalities of the policy. However, to her credit, Kuenssberg did get Mahmood to accept (reluctantly) that Labour’s ‘clean electricity by 2030’ policy would still require gas-fired power as a ‘strategic reserve’. That was about the only point of interest – apart from the nonsense expressed in particular by Stark and Packham.
[Edited]
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Give me strength!
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I noted yesterday that, everyone taking part in the Laura Kuenssberg programme – except Luke Johnson – took it for granted that climate change was a serious challenge that Britain had to ‘address’. I made some notes of Johnson’s contribution:
CC is not people’s no 1 concern – and support will drop when it becomes apparent that NZ is simply unaffordable.
Despite all the hype and investment, renewables (wind and solar) amount to only 3% global consumption. The reality is that FF will continue to be central to global energy use for the foreseeable future.
The UK’s energy costs are five times higher that China’s. And we pay over twice as much for electricity as the US – higher than almost every other country.
China is building one coal-powered power plant every two weeks – despite investment in renewables, its economy is and will continue to be massively dependent on FFs.
Renewables are not the answer because there’s as yet no solution to their intermittency – the technology is simply not there for energy storage.
The reality politicians don’t seem to understand is that ordinary people want to be able to drive a car and go on holiday by air. Moreover they don’t want to be colder and poorer.
Simple but telling points. And none of the other panellists tried to dispute them. Did he get anywhere? Not during the programme. But Kuenssberg’s Sunday programme has a huge audience and some viewers must have taken note. This I think is the way forward for those of us who are determined to reverse climate policy – quiet persistence.
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Robin,
There’s a big problem here and it is only getting worse. With the exception of the odd person like Luke Johnson, the necessity of Net Zero is basically taken as a given and this means that all public ‘debate’ on Net Zero is extremely limited and skewed towards arguments centred around practicality, implementation, economic impacts etc. Packham in particular is a scientifically illiterate, factually challenged, millenarian moron, yet he dares to cite ‘science’ as his justification for taking the government to court to prevent it from granting North Sea oil and gas licences, and nobody, bar Johnson, is challenging him on that. It’s ridiculous and it cannot go on like this. The whole of the Net Zero issue has to be opened up for debate, especially the science, which sharply brings into focus the necessity argument, plus the urgency argument too (so even if man-made climate change is real, it is relatively minor according to some, thus the phase out of fossil fuels becomes very much less of a priority).
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Does anyone know when Peter Hitchens took on the mantle of Robin Guenier and fired this broadside at George Monbiot on Question Time? “Even if George is right [about the science]” it’s nonsense etc. I think it does show the strength of the approach but annoyingly Wide Awake Media doesn’t bother to give details.
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If I may, I would like to quote once again from Free Your Mind, by Patrick Fagan and Laura Dodsworth. On the subject of net zero and the potential for a backlash to the nudging campaign, they write:
Remember that Fagan is a behavioural scientist. He is supposed to be one of the enemy, but he is so refreshingly open-minded.
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A few days ago John C told us that, over recent years, he’s contemplated, re the climate madness, two key questions:
How did we in the West get into this mess?
And how do we get out of it (and stay out of it)?
Well, since John’s note, I too have been contemplating those questions. Neither is easy to answer. As I said in my answer to John, Lionel Shriver’s excellent book ‘Mania’ casts some light on the first. And, since I wrote that, her outstanding interview with Toby Young (see my recommendation and reference above) has I think at least partially answered both questions. And I’m beginning to think that John’s second – and arguably most important – question is the easiest to answer. Indeed I suppose I’ve already begun to answer it by citing Ayn Rand’s words: ‘we can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.’ As I observed, we’ve been evading realty for a long time – and now the consequences are upon us.
But, as I also observed: ‘Our political ‘leaders’ have yet to realise this. But they will – they have no choice’. And there I suggest is the key to answering John’s second question. What we, and those with the same objective, should be doing, whenever we get an opportunity, is to accelerate that realisation. It won’t be easy, but it should be possible – the facts are all on our side. Go back and read the article that prompted this thread. I don’t think there’s anything I said there that isn’t obviously accurate. That’s why, if you put any of these issues to a group of believers, they won’t dispute them because they can’t – see for example how Luke Johnson’s simple but telling remarks yesterday were ignored. But they cannot ignore them for ever. And especially not when reality bites. As has happened for the SNP.
Jaime: you said just now ‘that all public ‘debate’ on Net Zero is extremely limited and skewed towards arguments centred around practicality, implementation, economic impacts etc.’ But most unfortunately that isn’t so: there’s been barely any such debate – I wish there had because I’m sure we could easily win it. (Unlike a debate about the science that would sadly but inevitably be unpleasant – howls of ‘denier’ etc. – and drag on forever.)
The conclusion must be that we have to find a way of getting that ‘public debate’ around practicality etc. started.
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I think this is potentially very interesting:
“Net zero has become unhelpful slogan, says outgoing head of UK climate watchdog
Chris Stark says populist response and culture war around the term is inhibiting environmental progress”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/22/net-zero-has-become-unhelpful-slogan-says-outgoing-head-of-uk-climate-watchdog
“The concept of “net zero” has become a political slogan used to start a “dangerous” culture war over the climate, and may be better dropped, the outgoing head of the UK’s climate watchdog has warned.
Chris Stark, the chief executive of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), said sensible improvements to the economy and people’s lives were being blocked by a populist response to the net zero label, and he would be “intensely relaxed” about losing the term.
“Net zero has definitely become a slogan that I feel occasionally is now unhelpful, because it’s so associated with the campaigns against it,” he said. “That wasn’t something I expected.”
Politicians on all sides are now wary of associating themselves with the term, he said, which was inhibiting progress. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, made several policy U-turns last year, including delaying the changeover to electric vehicles, while the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, watered down a promise to invest £28bn a year in a green economy.…”.
Net zero, it seems to me, has (at least since Mrs May pushed it through by amending the CCA) been a shibboleth, a rallying cry, an article of faith, for the climate alarmed. To see a potential retreat from this dominant phrase is most encouraging, although it seems to me that behind the scenes they intend to maintain it as an objective, while possibly pretending otherwise. I thought in that respect that this comment was particularly revealing:
“If it [net zero] is only a slogan, if it is seen as a sort of holding pen for a whole host of cultural issues, then I’m intensely relaxed about dropping it,” he said. “We keep it as a scientific target, but we don’t need to use it as a badge that we keep on every programme.”
Interesting times. Let’s hope they become still more interesting.
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This is also a little bit of a surprise:
“A heedless dash for net zero will waste cash and, later, votes
Keir Starmer must learn from the Tories’ failures and ensure green projects are well planned and resourced”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/20/a-heedless-dash-for-net-zero-will-waste-cash-and-later-votes
An interesting critique of financial waste in the rush to net zero, albeit while maintaining the need for net zero, of course.
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Mark: ‘Interesting times. Let’s hope they become still more interesting.’
Well said. These Guardian reports might turn out to be encouraging as well as interesting. But let’s not get too excited.
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Robin, thank you for your comments on my two questions.
While I largely agree with what you have written I just wanted to say that I feel those powerful forces which drove us into this mess will want to keep us there … while they squeeze every last penny out of the current economic dispensations, whether they be climate or pandemic related. In that sense the two questions are strongly linked via positive feedback. We need to break that link or we may find that any respite is but temporary.
Whatever the scare, real or imaginary (e.g. 2008 banking crisis, or the climate change/Net Zero panic) the M.O. has been broadly the same, and so, given its success to date, it is likely to be the same PPOSMM model next time around (e.g. for Disease X):-
Firstly, panic (you, particularly in the West, must act very rapidly or things will become so much worse);
Secondly, pay (for very expensive but not necessarily effective ‘treatment’ e.g. wind turbines or green energy funds, or vaccines);
Thirdly, obey (by signing away sovereignty to undemocratic supranational bodies which seem to be strongly influenced (i) by key nations with a strong sense of national identity/purpose, and (ii) by “charitable organisations” set up by a small number of activist billionaires);
Finally, follow up by sending more money to aforesaid supranational bodies, both to ‘minimize’ your nation’s future exposure and suffering during the next crisis and also to show your nation’s ‘virtue’ through its collegiate behaviour.
This PPOSMM model in its various guises (see above) seems to be a variant of the Moral Hazard scenario whereby one party (e.g. billionaires) reaps the considerable benefits while another party (e.g. the ordinary members of the public/tax payers) covers the very considerable costs.
Regards, John C.
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Richard, looks like this episode. Troubled myself to dig for it as wanted to hear it myself! Haven’t confirmed yet but both the relevant characters are there, and it’s recent.
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Further to my recent comment (22nd April @ 8.59pm), there is an article today by Ben Pile in The Daily Sceptic about the forces that wish to milk the present dispensations for all they are worth:-
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/04/23/profits-of-doom/
Or as Ben puts it, “So there we have it – four key ways in which the unimpeachable cause of saving the planet is in fact driven by the same old lust for money, power and influence.”
Regards, John C.
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Yes Jit that’s the one. The relevant discussion starts at 38 min in and goes on for about 10 mins. The only panellists worth listening to are George Monbiot and Peter Hitchens – the politicians both mouth meaningless rubbish. Monbiot sensibly keeps it simple: his answer to the question (What single outcome would you wish to see from COP28?) is agreement to keep all fossil fuels in the ground because he says, unless we do, we face global catastrophe no matter how many wind turbines and solar panels we install. It’s a position that gets loud support from the audience. Hitchens – as was shown in the clip above – said that, even if George’s predictions about apocalypse are right, we have to face the reality that, when the wind isn’t blowing, we rely on gas for our electricity and also that in any case China is, as we speak, building the equivalent of two coal fired power stations a week and India also has a vast coal fired power station expansion programme. And the contribution of the UK to all this isn’t merely minimal it’s non existent – everything we do is blotted out by the actions of much larger countries. So, if you want to live in a country where people lose their jobs because there’s no energy, where we’re all going to be cold, where computers – essential for so much these days – shut down … then demand to keep it in the ground is intelligent and thoughtful. Good points – but his argument was in my view too complex and it got only a smattering of applause. In subsequent discussion – from which Hitchens was excluded – Monbiot’s simple message won every time.
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John C, thanks for the link to Ben Pile’s excellent article. His final paragraph sums up his message:
But, as I noted re that Question Time extract, it’s the simple message that gets through. Perhaps we should learn from that.
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Jit: Thanks, that looks the one. I’ll also try and watch today. (In looking at the most recent QT it was striking to see David TC Davies on the panel for the Tories. But no mention of the Cass Review or anything else to do with the trans issue for the MP who was outstanding in his support for Venice Allan and co in the earliest days when all the others lived in fear. Too hot and embarrassing a debate for the BBC even now I guess.)
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Richard: re Monbiot/Hitchens see my post above (10:09 AM).
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“Anyone who can spare an hour and twenty minutes really should watch Toby Young’s interview with the brilliant Lionel Shriver here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEFFqB5UAFE. “
– Yes, Robin.
Put the blame on Meme, boys.
H/t Rita Hayworth.
And how will Net Zero fare when AI makes demands its mega demands on energy ?
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Robin: Thanks. Sorry I missed that. I’m still thinking about about message simplicity problem.
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Richard: here’s simple answer to the question (‘What single outcome would you wish to see from COP28?‘):
‘That there should be no more of these absurd COPs. As George said, they essentially all fail. Why is that? Because major non-Western countries – the source of over 75% of emissions – are not, and never will be, seriously interested in emission reduction.’
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Here is another link that discusses the often malign influence of the super rich and their political allies:-
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/04/22/the-rise-of-corporate-totalitarianism/
The article is by Dr Rowena Slope (Senior Lecturer in Adult Nursing at Bournemouth University and author of Care in the Iron Cage: A Weberian Analysis of Failings in Care) from whom I quote in order to give a flavour of the arguments put forward:-
“Corporate totalitarianism represents a new ideological development in the history of humanity. Its proponents are the oligarch class who own investment funds and corporations, dynastic families and individuals of extraordinary wealth. They belong to the same class from which powerful politicians and statesmen are drawn, and they help coordinate their activities at the helm of political parties, from within Government departments and across the multitude of non-governmental bodies that are involved in the policymaking process. Global in nature and outlook, their identification is not with any country, religion or culture, and among their chief goals is the continued accumulation of wealth and power.” This sounds to me like a modern variant of The Iron Triangle phenomenon.
Slope ends by writing, “So far, Western liberal democracy and Christianity have provided little resistance to woke culture or corporate totalitarianism and this poses a troubling conundrum to those seeking to challenge its nihilistic vision of humanity.”
I wonder if part of the explanation for the West’s “little resistance” is the naivety of the former Left which seems to have absorbed much of the “progressive” rhetoric without adequate critical analysis. This is why I have previously labelled this misdirection of the former Left as blight-wing politics. Blight-wing politics will probably remain a major coup for the oligarchs until the once politically significant old Left realizes that it has been hoodwinked – only then will we see the West start to stir.
Regards, John C.
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Beth: Thanks for recommending the Young/Shriver interview. I felt I should watch right away (and that I’m afraid isn’t common). There is much of value, not least how honest she is about the personal cost, the real pain of rejection by those ‘more woke than thou’ who you previously thought were friends. But there is much else, including the different strangenesses and timescales of transgenderism and climate mania.
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Thanks John for the link to Dr Slope’s well-argued and exceptionally concerning article. However, I believe we can take some comfort from the fact that the climate issue doesn’t quite fit the pattern. For example, unlike BLM, climate change has not prompted outbreaks of mob violence. Yes, climate science has been disgracefully distorted and professional criticism silenced and yes, climate propaganda is a continuing issue. But – unlike I think all the other examples she mentions – only climate ideology is about to run slap into harsh reality: no propaganda, despite being funded by an insanely wealthy oligarch class, can overcome the impossibility of for example making scarce and increasingly expensive wind turbine materials available and inexpensive, overcome the huge challenges of establishing an adequate and reliable ‘renewable’ grid by 2030, fix the intermittency problem and find sufficient skilled people to deal with the needs of Net Zero as well as an massive and expanding house building programme.
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I have repeatedly interacted with Guardian readers and their ilk over what can be done to ‘save the planet/ human race/stop climate change/power our modern civilization’ etc (delete as appropriate), I have yet to recieve a single constructive answer.
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Lionel Shriver has another interesting article in the Speccie this morning: ‘It rarely pays to be ahead of your time‘ (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/it-rarely-pays-to-be-ahead-of-your-time/). Her point, referring to the consequences of the Cass report, is that those who pointed out the iniquities of the transgender mania won’t benefit from their foresight – no thanks, no apologies. And nor will those who actively supported the madness ever be held to account.
But then – something that may be of interest to many of us here – she says this:
Of course there’s a lot of truth in this but my comment (moving up the ‘liked’ ladder) took a rather different line:
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Robin,
The ‘science’ of lockdowns has collapsed over the course of just two years on account of the fact that it never was ‘science’, it was just invented on the hoof at the start of the Covid pandemic. But it masqueraded as settled science for well over a year; enough time to get the jabs into billions of arms.
Climate ‘science’ is a bit more challenging. It has developed slowly over decades, largely unchallenged except by a few outlying sceptics who could easily be dismissed as cranks and ‘deniers’. But then it had to evolve rapidly, from global warming, to climate change and then ‘climate breakdown’ in order to justify the rapid Green energy transition. It now rests on very shaky foundations and, though it probably won’t collapse like Lockdown Theory did, it certainly won’t be around for too much longer, not 359 years, not 50.
Shriver says:
Indeed, by being a conformist, you may increase your personal chances of survival, but this is not the ‘survival of the fittest’, it is the ‘survival of the thickest’ and in times of mass hysteria and delusion, it is the non-conformists who ensure the survival of the species, even if they fail to ensure their own survival. That is their true reward for being ahead of their time. You can’t ask for more than that in my opinion.
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Robin on Shriver:
Not completely true. Some people have had their careers blighted but they’re in much better shape now because Cass has done such a superb job than if she hadn’t. More importantly, vulnerable kids who would have been ‘transitioned’ (read mutilated) no longer will be. What is irreversible are the mutilations already done. But, don’t worry, the courts will soon be full of ‘detransitioners’ suing the doctors who carried out this abomination.
All of which means that Cass is different to Climate. For reasons Jaime also gives. I may say more in a new Cliscep post tomorrow.
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Avoiding reality requires resting on shaky foundations as Robin et al , above,
and Stan Freberg, way back machine, recognise.
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I disagree Richard – Shriver got it right. Her article makes it clear that Cass has been hugely beneficial, resulting in widespread changes of heart and, in particular, because:
But she says:
And, although those who bravely criticised the madness will feel vindicated and are now as you say, ‘in much better shape’, she says (correctly in my view) that they’re unlikely to get any thanks or apologies because:
Yes, Cass and climate are different. But that’s another issue altogether. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this.
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Thanks Robin. I pretty much 100% agree with your quotes from Shriver there. Mañana it will have to be for the post.
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This morning the formidable Kathryn Porter celebrates the eighth anniversary of her Watt-Logic blog with a post that takes a look at pretty well all of the key UK climate issues. She makes the interesting, but not I think surprising, comment that over the past year ‘the biggest difference is in the levels of engagement I am having and growing signs that my contrarian views are no longer quite so contrarian!’ .
Her post is well worth a read and, headed ‘You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality’, it can be accessed here: https://watt-logic.com/2024/04/27/watt-logic-8/
PS: I think that quote from Ayn Rand (she calls her ‘Ann’) is slightly incorrect – but no matter.
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Robin, thank you for the link to Kathryn Porter’s excellent blog. I particularly liked this quote, “Still, we need to do more to avoid designing energy markets with the affluent in mind, while ignoring the reality of the majority.” Yes, the elites (and their media pals) have for years been having a field day at the expense of the rest of society – the most exquisite luxury beliefs are surely those that other people pay for!
I am pleased, too, that she quoted Ayn Rand’s sentiment that you can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality. That sentiment might just become the mantra of the fight-back.
Regards, John C.
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Even though reality is slowly dawning in Scotland, there’s not yet any sign of that happening in Northern Ireland:
“Fracking: Minister wants NI ban on petroleum exploration”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68916982
The economy minister has said he wants to ban fracking and all other forms of petroleum exploration and production in Northern Ireland.
Conor Murphy said he will soon ask the Executive to approve a ban and, if granted, will introduce legislation.
Existing laws will have to be amended and the legislative process will stretch into next year.
In the meantime, Mr Murphy’s department will not accept or process onshore petroleum licensing applications.
He said the ban reflects broader policies to reduce carbon emissions and comes after a recent consultation.…
Yes, you read that right. The economy minister wishes to take measures which may cause harm to harm the economy.
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In the Manhattan Contrarian yesterday (https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-4-27-a-shockingly-inept-report-on-battery-storage-of-energy-from-the-iea) Francis Menton makes a scathing attack on what he describes as a ‘shockingly inept’ report on battery storage by the International Energy Agency. This extract epitomises his view:
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Robin,
AGAIN, energy ‘experts’ quoting battery storage capacity in MW, which is an instantaneous power rating and says nothing about how long that power output can be maintained for. They do something very similar by quoting wind capacity figures in MW, ignoring the fact that when the wind isn’t blowing these turbines produce little or no power for long periods and gas power stations have to be fired up to meet the demand.
And talking about the Royal Society report on low wind periods:
It is obvious that a zero carbon grid without huge gas back up is not achievable with current technology and there is little prospect of it being achievable (or economically viable) in the next decade. But politicians and Green zealots keep pretending it is a realistic prospect and they keep pushing for ever more wind turbines and solar panels, ignoring the fact that grid scale storage is a myth. At the same time, the last remaining coal-fired power station is being retired, aging gas stations are being retired and the modular nuclear reactor dream has already collapsed (Rolls Royce just pulled out). Labour will kill off gas and oil exploration. We will be totally reliant upon imports. The lights are going to go out and civil war will be waged in the dark and the cold.
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Sam Leith – the Spectator’s literary editor – has an article today headed ‘The parable of Blackpool’s potholes’. Noting how Blackpool Council’s success in filling its potholes led to a remarkable reduction in pothole-related injury, he argues that ‘small things give in to big ones’, citing New York where the ‘broken windows’ theory of policing led to huge reduction in overall crime. Surely, he says, the fact that ‘an ounce of prevention might save us a ton of cure’ could apply to other policy areas? He lists several instances from the UK. For example: ‘Chiselling money from education budgets now puts a great dent in the economy of the future’.
But then he says this:
My response quickly garnered the most up votes:
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You can’t get through to these people Robin: it’s a cult-like belief system, resistant to facts and logic. Firstly they believe that a small rise in a trace atmospheric gas (all caused by emission from burning fossil fuels) is what controls the temperature of the entire planet. But that’s not absurd enough for them: they also believe that if the UK’s trace contributions to global emissions of GHGs (0.8%) are reduced to zero, then that will make a big difference to the temperature of the earth in the decades to come, even though the major GHG emitting countries won’t be reducing their emissions any time soon, in fact they will be increasing them. It just doesn’t occur to them that this is irrational, because they have permanently abandoned all reason for emotive virtue-signalling.
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Jaime: it’s very simple, all I’m asking the likes of Sam Leith to understand is that, even if the problem is as bad as many scientists say, there’s nothing the UK – the source of less than 1% of global emissions – can do about it. Therefore it’s foolish for us to take any ‘hit to our economy’. Is that simple reality really too hard for them to understand?
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Robin, you have posed the question, “Is that simple reality really too hard for them to understand?” and I have to say, rather in agreement with Jaime, that it is indeed too much for such people to understand as the following tale relates ….
I have a friend, an academic of about my age (70-ish), who self-identifies as a socialist. I have been having, on and off, an e-mail argument with them since 2019 about climate/energy policy etc. At the time, about a year ago, when the possible opening of a new Cumbrian coal mine was very much in the news, my friend was decidedly against the opening of the mine despite knowing the simple facts about the UK being the source of very little of that “deadly” CO2. The reason for my friend’s antipathy to the new mine was that “It would set a bad precedent for China when eventually it comes to consider relinquishing fossil fuels.”
My friend did not explain why China with its huge economy would be in the least interested in what little Britain had done years before – I am here naively assuming that my friend is correct in his assertion that China will, one year not too far hence, decide against fossil fuels.
So there we have it. No matter what damage it may do to the Cumbrian economy, the misnamed “virtue signalling” won out over real jobs for ordinary people that traditional socialists might have coveted.
As I almost said elsewhere recently, “The most exquisite luxury beliefs are surely those that modern socialists expect other people to pay for.” What further examples do we at Cliscep have of modern socialism’s dominant sub-set, namely its graduate class, being turned inside out (just as Matthew Goodwin related in his recent book ‘Values, voice and virtue’). Blight-wing politics, anybody?
Regards, John C.
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Well John I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that your friend trotted out the old precedent/leadership argument. It’s funny really – as I said in my ‘Leadership?’ post (https://cliscep.com/2023/03/23/leadership/):
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Robin,
The proof will be in the pudding. Let us know if you receive a response to your comment to Sam Leith.
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Behind a paywall, regrettably. Jaime, can you wave your magic?
“Net zero risks crushing businesses, warns Energy Secretary
In speech to technology entrepreneurs in London, Claire Coutinho will say climate policy is at ‘a fork in the road’”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/04/29/net-zero-risks-crushing-businesses-warns-energy-secretary/
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Mark – there’s no need to read the article, its final paragraph says it all:
A slight problem: Net Zero is totally incompatible with that desirable ‘approach’.
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Mark,
If she is serious about letting the free market drive carbon reduction policies, then this necessarily means that CCA 2008 should be repealed. It is inherently anti-competitive and anti-free market. You can’t fix that. Coutinho is still talking about imposing Net Zero policies. That excludes the free market by definition. It’s just more meaningless waffle as far as I can see, a tinkering at the edges.
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Jamie: there no possibility of my getting a response from Sam Leith – with the exception of the wonderful Julie Burchill, Speccie authors don’t reply to comments – I suspect some don’t even read them.
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Robin, Jaime , thanks for that. Not so promising as I hoped from the headline, then.
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There’s a good article in the Telegraph today – ‘Electric grid wars are a direct assault on the Western middle class If we want prosperity for all, electricity must be cheap and consistent. The energy transition cannot leave ordinary people behind’ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/04/29/joe-biden-net-zero-energy-transition-renewable-middle-class/)
There’s a lot that I’d like to quote here, but I’ll confine myself to this:
The author, Joel Kotkin (just as well he isn’t British – with that name he’d have had a hard time at school!) concludes with this:
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I’m pleased to be able to report that a slightly amended version of my header article here has just now been published by The Daily Sceptic: https://dailysceptic.org/2024/04/30/the-case-against-net-zero/ It concludes with a link to Cliscep.
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A nice comment by Paul Homewood: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/04/30/the-case-against-net-zero/#more-73105
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The despair of Guardianistas can perhaps offer hope to those who seek a rational UK energy policy:
“‘There is despair’: fears for Scotland’s green policies as power-sharing ends”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/30/there-is-despair-fears-for-scotlands-green-policies-as-power-sharing-ends
I think this is all for the good. The part of the article that drives me to distraction is the conflation of environmentally damaging net zero policies with positive environmentalism:
The other thing that drives me mad is this sort of bilge – a simplistic belief that this trilemma is actually a virtuous circle:
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Notalot has a post (https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/04/30/net-zero-watch-says-coutinho-must-translate-words-into-action/) about the Net Zero Watch reaction Claire Coutinho’s ‘fork in the road’ speech. There are some good comments – not least an excellent one by Jaime.
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From the FT today:
The second coming of Ed Miliband
Labour’s shadow energy secretary could be among the most powerful — and radical — of Starmer’s close allies
What a ghastly prospect.
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Robin,
If that’s the case, then the Second Going Away is not going to be gentle, like the First. It will be bloody and brutal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/ed-miliband-to-resign-as-labour-leader
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Jaime: we’ll see. I suspect he’s going to find it harder than he expects to implement his mad climate policy.
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Perhaps this is the wrong place for it, but … Francis Menton has just published a scathing criticism of the Biden administration’s latest attack on the US energy system:
The Biden Administration Ever More Delusional On Energy
(https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-5-1-the-biden-administration-ever-more-delusional-on-energy).
This extract gives a taste of Menton’s view:
Worth reading in full.
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“Sunak to allow oil and gas exploration at sites intended for offshore wind
Exclusive: decision to grant licences condemned by critics as a stunt that shows Tories are ‘playing politics with climate’”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/02/sunak-to-allow-oil-and-gas-exploration-at-sites-intended-for-offshore-wind
Fossil fuel companies will be allowed to explore for oil and gas under offshore wind-power sites for the first time, the government will announce on Friday, in a move that campaigners said is further proof that ministers are abandoning the climate agenda.
The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), which regulates North Sea oil and gas production, will confirm that it is granting licences to about 30 companies to look for hydrocarbons on sites earmarked for future offshore windfarms.
The move has brought renewed criticism of Rishi Sunak from environmentalists, including from the prime minister’s own former net zero tsar, who worry that any future oil and gas production could hamper clean energy generation.
But it will also give the embattled prime minister a welcome piece of news to sell to his restive backbenchers – many of whom are keen to see more oil and gas production in the North Sea – the day after what are set to be a bruising set of local election results…
Then they wheel out Skidmore for a typically extreme comment. It seems to me that if we’re going to industrialise our seas, we might as well extract maximum benefit from the harm thereby caused to the environment.
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“Forget Brexit – Net Zero is the real threat to the car industry
Extreme green targets pose an existential threat to UK carmakers.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/05/02/forget-brexit-net-zero-is-the-real-threat-to-the-car-industry/
The concluding paragraph:
As long as our political class remains in the grip of climate apocalypticism, then car manufacturers will be in trouble. Both Labour and the Tories see our car industry as a problem to be managed, as a cause of environmental disaster, rather than a source of growth, wealth and jobs. This is the real threat to Britain’s carmakers.
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Mark; those restive backbenchers may have to wait for some policy changes before anything happens in the North Sea. From the Energy Voice website:
“Oil and gas firms are being framed as the “devil incarnate” as general election rhetoric ramps up, a top North Sea dealmaker has complained.
Andrew Austin said is firm Kistos Holdings (AIM: KIST) is one of several which has pulled out of deals due to political uncertainty and that the windfall tax is being seen as a “victimless” crime as the UK gears up for an election.
Speaking to The Herald, he said: “Part of the problem is both parties are rightly trying to chase the 18 to 24 year old vote and in their minds climate change and oil and gas companies are the devil incarnate, therefore taxing them is effectively a victimless crime; that’s what’s driving it on both sides of the house.’
Mr Austin, who built up his former company RockRose Energy into a £250m business, said committing fresh capital to projects in the North Sea “is definitely off the table” until there’s certainty as to “the Government and the Government’s position”.
There have been four changes to the windfall tax since 2022 under the ruling Conservative government, while Labour, which is leading the polls, has promised a “proper windfall tax” should it win power.
Last month, the CEO of Hartshead Energy told Energy Voice the uncertainty on Labour’s plans have led to it cutting project team jobs.
Meanwhile the party’s pledge – which includes cutting investment allowances while hiking and extending the levy – has led to warnings it will kill off North Sea investment.
Kistos’ partner in the West of Shetland, TotalEnergies, told Energy Voice last year that the uncertainty is impacting potential Final Investment Decisions for their projects in the region.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/527632/totalenergies-windfall-tax-2023-exclusive/embed/#?secret=v6kbAdWily#?secret=1tqgOAHn1P
Mr Austin told The Herald that the windfall tax is not making Shell or BP the victim.
“The victims are the small independents who effectively have become the mantle-holders for the North Sea as the majors and super-majors have exited.”
That announcement is just window-dressing, like the postponement to 2035 of the ban on ICE car sales. It is meaningless without repeal or modification of the underlying legislation.
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Robin G: you may be interested in a quote from your MP which featured in an article by Kathryn Porter on the burden of over-regulation:
““First, we need to tackle the alarming growth in poorly made and conflicting regulation which permeates every area of economic life, strangling economic activity for small businesses. Second, we must address the continued expansion of judicial review, which is slowing or stopping critical decisions and pushing up costs for everybody. Only when we have started to make progress on these aspects of government will we be able to turn our policy intentions into results on the ground”
– Bim Afolami, Conservative MP for Hitchin and Harpen”
Net Zero should be a prime target for his criticisms but, from your correspondence, he seems to turn a Nelsonian eye…..
The overall article is excellent, explaining many of the delays and cost over-runs which bedevil UK projects (not just nuclear): https://watt-logic.com/2024/04/14/nuclear-regulation/
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This article (Friends of the Earth wins High Court fight to make government redraft plans to keep UK on track to meet Net Zero) about today’s High Court decision ordering the government to redraft its Net Zero strategy has just been published by the law firm Leigh Day, two of whose solicitors represented Friends of the Earth which, with others, brought the challenge against the government: https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/news/2024-news/friends-of-the-earth-wins-high-court-fight-to-make-government-redraft-plans-to-keep-uk-on-track-to-meet-net-zero/. Essentially, Mr Justice Sheldon ruled that the Secretary of State’s decision that his proposals and policies would enable the carbon budget to be met was irrational and not justified by the evidence.
The case turns upon what would seem to me to be the Court’s accurate interpretation of the terms of the 2008 Climate Change Act. Therefore, we should not in my view be criticising the High Court for reaching its decision. The problem of course is that, for the reasons repeatedly discussed here, it’s hard to see how this or any future government can implement the Act’s terms without causing serious social and economic harm to the UK. But paradoxically it’s equally hard to see this or any future government repealing the Act – or at least not for some time.
So what happens now?
Some might be interested in this comment by Rowan Smith, one of the Leigh Day solicitors representing Friends of the Earth:
The full record of the High Court proceeding can be found here: https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Friends-of-the-Earth-v-Secretary-of-State-for-Energy-Security-and-Net-Zero-003.pdf
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MikeH: thanks for drawing Bim’s remarks to my attention. Of course he’s right – although today’s High Court ruling (see above) is far more than judicial review. And, yes, Kathryn Porter’s article is, as you say, excellent
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This morning the Daily Sceptic has published a remarkably good article by Ben Pile: ‘Green Blob Tells Government to Spend £30 Billion on Machine to Remove CO2 From the Air’ (https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/05/green-blob-tells-government-to-spend-30-billion-removing-co2-from-the-air/).
It contains so much good stuff that I’ve struggled to find an extract to post here. Essentially, Ben is making two points:
And he makes them well. His conclusion:
Essential reading.
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But they have an idea – called Net Zero – and that is all they need. They will follow the idea, religiously, puritanically, until the bitter end and they will destroy themselves and us along with it. The idea is everything. These fanatics have no concept of collateral damage. If they are not stopped, they will destroy the country.
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Anyone here who may have any lingering admiration for Boris Johnson should I suggest read this (from the Independent): ‘Boris Johnson to co-chair ex-Tory MP’s net zero initiative. The former prime minister has announced he will join ex-net zero tsar Chris Skidmore’s company, Better Earth.’ (https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/boris-johnson-chris-skidmore-downing-street-climate-change-committee-british-b2537895.html)
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Also, Robin , it should be read by anyone who has any lingering admiration for Chris Skidmore. I wonder what his colleagues at Bath University will make of him now?
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I don’t know how anyone could have been taken in by Johnson. He locked the country down, mandated masks, pushed the jabs even to the point of considering mandating them, scuppered a peace settlement in Ukraine, enthusiastically embraced Net Zero as soon as he became PM, nay, even before he became PM, endlessly spouted the WEF ‘Build Back Better’ crap whilst in office and partied whilst the country was under house arrest. A sopping wet rag of a ‘conservative’ MP if ever there was one. That fat, Pol Pot-bellied bastard has done incalculable harm to this country, along with his rotten Parliamentary Party, now intent on handing over the reins to Mad Miliband and Insipid Starmer in order to finish the job of destruction which they started and which Johnson accelerated from March 2020 onwards.
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Well Mark, if my understanding of the views of today’s academics is correct, I image Chris Skidmore’s erstwhile colleagues at Bath University are delighted by his views on climate change.
Here’s a report on the launch of the ‘Better Earth‘ initiative: https://www.edie.net/chris-skidmore-announces-better-earth-initiative-to-accelerate-climate-policy-initiative/. Apparently. ‘its core focus will be “prioritising real-terms, real-time reductions in emissions by 2030’. The report notes:
As there isn’t the remotest chance of the world achieving the 1.5ºC target, that would seem to be a particularly interesting challenge for Chris.
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Robin, all that’s true, but Bath, like most universities, is full of academics who are pro-EU, and who hate Boris with a passion, because of Brexit.
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The Telegraph has published an utterly terrifying report today: ‘Labour plots new net zero crackdown on corporates Ed Miliband to legally oblige directors to publish their company’s carbon footprint’ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/04/labour-ed-miliband-plots-new-net-zero-crackdown-corporates/ )
A few extracts:
(I don’t suppose Miliband knows that ‘the world’ agreed no such thing – indeed major emitters such as China, India, Indonesia and Iran were specifically exempted from having to make any emission reductions.)
(A wonderful way of driving our few remaining industries out of the UK and of ensuring there is no inward investment. And of course hugely benefiting China.)
He’s quite mad. Perhaps voting for the Tories might be the best option after all.
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God help us .
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It’s so easy to use exaggerated language, to dash off a comment that we later regret, and I would normally disapprove of describing anyone as mad. However, in this case I share Robin’s opinion. The truly terrifying thing is that Starmer, the likely next UK PM presumably agrees with Miliband. Does that mean Starmer is mad? And the rest of the shadow cabinet? What on earth has happened? How have politics sunk to such an abysmal low?
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Robin, Mark,
Alas, God won’t help us and the Tories would do the same eventually, if by some miracle they were to get back into office. The only difference between the Cons and Labour is that Labour now have the balls to front their insane energy and economic policies with an unhinged lunatic, knowing that they are virtually guaranteed a landslide at the next election, gifted to them by the Tories. Barring a mass uprising, and the physical removal of politicians from Parliament, I fear the destruction of UK PLC is now hardwired into the system.
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I was going to post a gif of Saruman saying “So… you have chosen death…” but I didn’t want to lower the tone. Imagine I did, but that I subsequently tidied it up.
In any sane world, such policies would make Labour a laughing stock. Now? *Shrugs*
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Robin, I am trying to find a crumb of comfort in this ‘Labour plotting new Net Zero crackdown on corporates’ story … but crumbs of any kind are very hard to find. Could it be that because Miliband is no longer allowed to blue £28 billion/year on green “investment” he has been given a consolation prize, a sort of wooden spoon with which to beat everybody and every large company? If so then this is barking mad! But it is the only possible crumb – more like gristle – I can find by way of explanation.
Regards, John C.
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John C, here’s a possible crumb. This afternoon I sent an email to my MP – now a junior Minister – the text of which was almost precisely the same as my post here at 11:30 this morning. The only real difference was that I opened it by saying that I was sorry to say that, for reasons widely discussed in much of the media, I had decided that I could no longer support the Conservative Party. However, I concluded that with the comment that, in view of Miliband’s planned policies, voting for the Tories might be the best option after all.
Obviously I don’t expect the Tories to seize this argument and thereby retain power – obviously there isn’t the remotest chance of that happening. But, if enough of the more sensible Tories (and there are some) were to use Miliband’s comments as clear evidence that Labour is determined to destroy Britain, it might contribute to a change of attitude towards Net Zero.
As I said, a possible crumb.
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Robin; In case you haven’t seen it, Paul Homewood has an article up covering an engineering doctoral thesis on the impact of EVs on the local distribution systems. It reinforces the points you make about the lack of resources and trained personnel:
“In extremis, it may be necessary to upgrade (reinforce) local substations and cables. Such reinforcement includes:
• replacing the transformer
• digging up the road and relaying cables
• a spend of c. £45 k per 100 served homes i.e.
25 million * £ 450 = £11.25 billion (approx assets costs; a “broad-brush” estimate)
Which, after manpower costs plus profit is added may be perhaps x 2 or x3 as much.
Note that the politics to this falls into three sections:
Hence, a new generation of electrical engineers and technicians are needed.“
That’s just for EVs – heat pumps will be a far greater load.
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MikeH – plus data centres, AI and cryptocurrency.
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MikeH – Paul Homewood has updated that Steve Broderick article: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/05/06/steve-broderick-update/#more-73180. Re the lack of trained personnel, I found this comment by David W. particularly interesting:
Well said. And this is just one example of a vast problem (the lack of skilled people) facing the entire Net Zero project.
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Robin; thanks for flagging up that update – I’ll read it later.
Given that the shortage of skilled people is so obvious, it’s surprising that the various professional institutions and trades bodies aren’t making some noise. Or maybe they are but it’s not getting any air time?
Taking the heat pump example again, a huge number are expected to be retrofits, replacing gas boilers, which involves major revisions to the pipework, radiators, etc plus installation of a hot water tank in many cases. Where are all the plumbers to take on this huge load of work? From local experience, plumbers are already extremely busy!
Someone should interview that guy who owns Pimlico Plumbers…..he must be contemplating a private jet to go with his high-end cars!
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Sub-headline from the FT (article pay-walled):
“The $9tn question: how to pay for the green transition The bill for meeting climate goals will be immense. Governments worldwide are trying to figure out how to foot it.”
Reality is dawning……
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MikeH – see: https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-15/help-we-need-a-builder-britains-skills-shortage, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65855506fc07f3000d8d46bd/Employer_skills_survey_2022_research_report.pdf and https://www.ribaj.com/intelligence/market-analysis-construction-skills-shortage-aging-workforce-reduced-immigration.
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Of course the lack of skilled personnel is not only the obstacle to Net Zero, far from it. For example there’s also our hopelessly inadequate electricity grid and distribution system. Surprisingly, the Guardian recognises this in relation to housebuilding in particular:
‘Capacity crunch: why the UK doesn’t have the power to solve the housing crisis Our inadequate electricity network is stopping the building of thousands of new homes. And the necessary move to low-carbon heating and cars is only increasing demand’ (https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/04/capacity-crunch-why-the-uk-doesnt-have-the-power-to-solve-housing-crisis).
The report opens with an interview with Susan Brown, leader of Oxford city council. And it closes with her making this ‘you couldn’t make it up’ comment: “What concerns me is that it is delaying housing, making it more expensive, and it is affecting our ability to make housing zero carbon, which is so important.”
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Net Zero Watch’s Director, Andrew Montford, makes an excellent comment today about the report on Miliband’s plans to which I referred on Sunday:
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Robin,
But we get to self-destruct, therefore denying Putin the pleasure. What’s not to like?
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“Revealed: Tory MPs face solar farm fury in these UK seats
Dozens of Conservative MPs in traditionally safe seats are looking nervously at large, unpopular solar developments in their constituencies.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-2024-heartland-tories-in-solar-scrap-to-save-their-seats/
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Robin; thanks for those links. They paint a grim picture – no surprise – especially that massive report (I only read the executive summary).
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What was the link for the Andrew Montford quote Robin?
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Richard, I got it as an email via NZW’s ‘SamizDat’ newsletter.
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Ah ok.
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UK policy-makers take note:
“Australia backs gas beyond 2050 despite climate fears”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjq5gky4e5no
Australia has announced it will ramp up its extraction and use of gas until “2050 and beyond”, despite global calls to phase out fossil fuels.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government says the move is needed to shore up domestic energy supply while supporting a transition to net zero.
But critics argue the move is a rejection of science, pointing to the International Energy Agency (IEA) call for “huge declines in the use of coal, oil and gas” to reach climate targets.
Australia – one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas – has also said the policy is based on “its commitment to being a reliable trading partner”.
Released on Thursday, the strategy outlines the government’s plans to work with industry and state leaders to increase both the production and exploration of the fossil fuel.
The government will also continue to support the expansion of the country’s existing gas projects, the largest of which are run by Chevron and Woodside Energy Group in Western Australia.
It argues these moves are needed for Australia’s domestic energy supply as it tracks towards its targets of delivering 82% renewable energy to the grid by 2030, and achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
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Another excellent article by Ben Pile, once of this parish. I could post it under a number of threads, since it touches on so many aspects of criticisms that we have discussed at Cliscep, but placing it here is as good as anywhere:
“Peter Lilley Warned 16 Years Ago That Enshrining Carbon Emissions Targets in Statute Would Open the Govt to Judicial Review. He Was Right”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/09/peter-lilley-warned-16-years-ago-that-enshrining-carbon-emissions-targets-in-statute-would-open-the-govt-to-judicial-review-he-was-right/
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A few notes on Ben Pile’s excellent article in the Daily Sceptic this morning to which Mark referred just now:
It’s about the High Court’s decision last week that the Government’s carbon reduction targets are insufficient to comply with its 2021 ‘Net Zero Strategy’ – which it is legally obliged to observe under the 2008 Climate Change Act. Pile points out how democracy has been ousted by lawfare – lawfare which is backed by massive funds provided by Government itself and by eco-billionaires. He notes how Peter Lilley (then my MP) anticipated the danger of this before the CCA was enacted.
An extract from Pile’s article:
[My emphasis]
His conclusion:
Worth reading in full.
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The Guardian has gone into alarmist overdrive this morning with two articles by its Environment editor, Damian Carrington:
World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature)
We asked 380 top climate scientists what they felt about the future
They are terrified, but determined to keep fighting
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair)
Interestingly, assuming the IPPCC’s 2118 Special Report was correct, I’m sure they’re right to expect ‘global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) above preindustrial levels this century’.
However I’m not so sure about this:
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Further to the above, I thought this was interesting:
His focus on the Anglosphere is interesting. No mention of the EU and especially none of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and South Korea, despite these countries being the source of over 50% of global GHG emissions and the Anglosphere of only 14%.
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For those who haven’t seen it, this is a ‘must read’: Climate Uncertainty and Risk by Dr Judith Curry: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/05/Curry-2024-GWPF-Lecture.pdf?mc_cid=3dddce11d1&mc_eid=4c64ced7e9
I’ve always liked her trademark contrasting of a ‘tame problem’ with a ‘wicked problem’.
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My above three posts are only barely relevant to this thread. I suggest (Mark?) that we may perhaps need a generic thread for broad climate change issues.
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Robin,
By coincidence, I was on Amazon only today looking for a good read, and I was sorely tempted to splash out on Judith’s book on uncertainty because it is now out in paperback. Even so, it’s still over £20 and I’m a bit too Yorkshire for that!
On a different subject, I believe one of the reasons for Open Mic was to give people somewhere to post ‘orphan’ comments.
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Yeah – Open Mic seems to have gone dead for some reason lately?
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Yes Robin,
I try to find an appropriate thread when commenting on news articles, but if there isn’t an obvious one, then John R is correct – Open Mic is a good place to put “orphan” stories. In the days when Bishop Hill was thriving, its Unthreaded page served that purposes, and my understanding is that Open Mic here is intended to serve that purpose.
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I thought this quite interesting. A few days ago I emailed Peter Lilley – now Lord Lilley – who was my MP prior to Bim, attaching a pdf version of my ‘Case Against Net Zero’ and saying this:
He replied:
I’m sure he’s right about the BBC and other MSN – but he seems to hope I’ll be able to help him rather vice versa.
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Ben,
Yes, that is interesting. Is it the government or the BBC that needs bringing down? Sometimes it is difficult to discern where the real power lies.
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Robin: It’s great to hear that you’re still in contact with Peter Lilley. Something like
would I think be worth incorporating in a future version of your Case Against Net Zero.
Would this satisfy Jaime on the need to also debate the science?
I guess not. But I think it deserves consideration.
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Mark:
Yes, Open Mic arose because Alan Kendall asked for something like BH’s Unthreaded on Cliscep. I disliked the way Unthreaded comments (some of which have been very good) didn’t have a reliable permalink so you couldn’t point to them as you quoted from them. Open Mic’s design is better in that respect.
For example I can in May 2024 point to Alan’s first comment on Open Mic in May 2021, which also sought to explain the purpose.
But no worries if there are times it’s not used. Every dog has its day.
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Richard: I disagree. The ‘any cost would be worth paying‘ argument is not really relevant to my essay – even if there were a peer reviewed study supporting it. That’s because the problem, assuming there is one, is global and I cannot see any evidence that most non-Western governments are at all likely to prioritise emission reduction. Therefore the result of paying ‘any cost’ would be the utter ruin of the UK for no purpose.
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Richard / Mark:
Re Open Mic, I’ll be rather more specific. What I’d like to see is a thread that deals with the same issues as this (Net Zero) thread but from an international rather than a UK perspective. I suppose you might say – ‘OK Robin post a suitable article and it’s done’. True – the trouble is that, at my advanced age, I’m not sure that I’ve got sufficient energy to do that. But I’ll give it some thought.
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Robin: Here’s my disagreement with your disagreement.
You(we) need to establish that cost-benefit analysis is highly appropriate in assessing Net Zero.
But there is a significant proportion of our audience (voters in the UK) who think that science* has found that the cost of doing nothing* is so great that the cost of doing Net Zero (the inverse of the benefits of not doing it) is pointless to consider. Thus they tune out the whole of Case Against Net Zero.
The fact* that there are no peer-reviewed* studies finding that the human race would face extinction or immiseration if we did nothing* is key to our audience considering your great work**.
* definitions are important here. But I believe LIlley’s fact is a fact and a really important one.
** beware flattery at all times!
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Richard: here’s my disagreement with your disagreement with my disagreement.
I am unaware of any evidence that a significant proportion of voters thinks the cost of doing nothing (i.e. abandoning the Net Zero policy) is so great that it would be pointless to consider it. Much more compelling in my view is the finding of various opinion polls that, although voters support the policy in principle, that support largely disappears when they are asked if they accept that the policy would mean additional costs for ordinary people. Therefore the fact that there is no peer-reviewed evidence that humanity faces extinction or immiseration if we (humanity) do nothing, although interesting, is of relatively little importance.
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Are we at risk of going round in circles with these arguments?
The principle of renewable energy is a good one. However, the practice (at the current state of technology) as measured by the EROEI parameter totally undermines the case for doing anything with current renewables technology. Current renewables technology just makes matters worse, although it has the “virtue signalling” characteristic of appearing to be beneficial.
So, for me, the message to propagate is that Net Zero (using current technologies) will make matters a lot worse both for Gaia and for ordinary people. Those promoting Net Zero, however, may benefit hugely – but I am not worrying about them.
Apologies if I have missed the point.
Regards, John C.
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Talking about Open Mic above, I just posted this link which may be relevant on this thread – Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade is heading for defeat | Michael Shellenberger interview (youtube.com)
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“Ministers consider making UK’s carbon targets easier to meet
Fears Climate Change Committee’s advice not to allow carryover from last carbon budget will be ignored”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/11/uk-carbon-targets-carryover-budget-climate-change-committee
Fewer emissions result from struggling economies, but instead of recognising that, campaigners are doubling down and demanding more pain:
Ministers are considering plans to weaken the UK’s carbon-cutting plans by allowing the unused portion of the last carbon budget to be carried over to the next period.…
…The UK has emitted less carbon dioxide in recent years than was expected, owing to factors including the Covid-19 pandemic and sluggish economic growth. This should be ignored, allowing for the next set of five-yearly emission targets to be more stringent, the better to reach net zero by 2050, the CCC has said.
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The Daily Sceptic is today quoting prof. Happer, “It is good that you point out strong evidence that the dogma that CO2 is the control knob of Earth’s climate is certainly wrong. But it is being used as an excuse for suicidal economic policies supported by glassy-eyed fanatics and clear-eyed opportunists. This is bad news for humanity.”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/11/climate-change-is-driven-by-changes-in-orientation-of-earth-to-sun-not-carbon-emissions-new-analysis-of-berkeley-earth-data-shows/
I agree that the suicidal economic policies are certainly bad news for humanity.
Regards, John C.
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I’m totally bemused by that DS article. If it was orbital forcing that was responsible for the increase in global temperature since 1880, you would expect the complete opposite of what has actually happened, i.e. for summers at high latitudes to get significantly warmer due to increased solar insolation, not the other way round. The author appears to be arguing that because winters in Greenland (when the sun is not around) have got much warmer than other seasons, this is somehow evidence of orbital solar forcing! Eh? A far more likely explanation is changes in North Atlantic ocean heat transport plus general circulation changes.
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Jaime, it seems as if the author ought to have done a little reading before plotting one set of numbers against another set of numbers and making a triumphant disproof of global warming.
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Sales of New Petrol Motorcycles Set to Be Banned From 2040″
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/12/sales-of-new-petrol-motorcycles-set-to-be-banned-from-2040/
The move would affect all vehicles classed as “L3” and upwards, including scooters and light, medium and higher-powered motorcycles. There are around 1.3 million motorcycles registered in the U.K.
It is expected to be revealed soon, according to industry sources, although it is not clear whether Downing Street has signed off on the policy yet.
The change would also be accompanied by a plan to ban sales of new petrol-fuelled mopeds earlier, from 2030.
That reflects the already-high numbers of electric mopeds being sold. They accounted for roughly half of U.K. moped registrations last year.
By contrast, the market for electric motorcycles is far less developed and represented less than 2% of total sales in 2023.
They also suffer from some of the same “range anxiety” issues as electric cars, with many e-motorcycles currently limited to ranges of less than 100 miles while not all are compatible by default with electric car charging stations. …
In a consultation published two years ago, the Department for Transport asked companies to comment on either a 2030 or 2035 ban for motorcycles and mopeds. A ban in 2035 would have been in line with the phasing out of sales of new petrol cars.
But while cars and taxis accounted for 57% of the U.K.’s transport-related carbon emissions in 2021, motorcycles and mopeds represented just 0.5%.
The Motorcycle Industry Association had previously warned that phasing out petrol-fuelled motorcycles by 2035 was “unrealistic” and could cause some manufacturers to “review their place in the U.K. market”.
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A week ago I sent my MP, Bim Afolami, an email drawing his attention to the report that Ed Miliband is planning a ‘net zero crackdown on corporates’, legally obliging ‘directors to … show that their business’s policies were ‘compliant with the UN Paris climate treaty signed in 2015‘. I noted that the principle would also apply to banks and financial institutions, potentially meaning that businesses could only get loans if they were ‘climate compliant’.
I said that this policy is quite mad and would destroy the British economy. I suggested that, if publicised, it might persuade doubters to support his party after all.
Here’s his reply, received this morning:
Unimpressive.
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“UK considers delaying some carbon capture projects as costs soar. The UK is considering delaying support for some carbon capture projects until after this year as costs rise for the fledgling technology”
Sub-headline from the Energy Voice website – the article is paywalled.
Reality bites again?
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Ben Pile has another good article in this morning’s Daily Sceptic: ‘Many of the ‘Climate Experts’ Surveyed by the Guardian in Recent Propaganda Blitz Turn Out to be Emotionally-Unstable Hysterics’ (https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/13/many-of-the-climate-experts-surveyed-by-the-guardian-in-recent-propaganda-blitz-turn-out-to-be-emotionally-unstable-hysterics/)
His opening and concluding paragraphs:
Worth reading in full.
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Robin,
Bim’s lacklustre response reinforces my conviction that the Tories exist now only in order to ensure the smooth hand over of the baton to Labour. They don’t care that Labour will finish the job of destroying the country which Labour started and which they enthusiastically continued with 14 years in office.
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The Guardian and others are promoting such emotionally incontinent drivel from ‘scientists’ because they are acutely aware that the actual science and data does not support their chosen policy agenda. But why worry? The science was supposedly ‘settled’ years ago and the only bone of contention between ‘deniers’ and those promoting Net Zero in response to imminent Thermageddon was how we arrive at the target deemed absolutely necessary by calm contemplation of the ‘physics’.
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I’ve just replied to Bim:
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This is the government response to the petition to repeal the CCA 2008. It is clear what we are up against. They are still banging on about the ‘necessity’ of Net Zero, as ‘proven’ by IPCC settled science – the “mainstream scientific consensus”.
You see now what we are up against. The Science. It is an immovable object. It dictates everything. It ‘proves’ that the cost of doing nothing far outweighs the cost of Net Zero. Until that immovable object meets an irresistible force, nothing is going to happen that will deter this government and successive governments from pushing ahead with Net Zero which has been made a legal requirement and is a gift to the climate lawfare brigade. Democratic dissent is not allowed. And the language is truly Orwellian: “. . . . . . will require the public to make green choices.” Well if it’s a requirement, then it’s not a choice is it! Disgusting from this current administration and Labour will be even worse. Mandatory impoverishment and immiseration beckons. Civil war does too.
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This is the government response to the petition to repeal the CCA 2008. It is clear what we are up against. They are still banging on about the ‘necessity’ of Net Zero, as ‘proven’ by IPCC settled science – the “mainstream scientific consensus”.
Dear Jaime Jessop,
The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Repeal the Climate Change Act 2008 and Net Zero targets”.
Government responded:
You see now what we are up against. The Science. It is an immovable object. It dictates everything. It ‘proves’ that the cost of doing nothing far outweighs the cost of Net Zero. Until that immovable object meets an irresistible force, nothing is going to happen that will deter this government and successive governments from pushing ahead with Net Zero which has been made a legal requirement and is a gift to the climate lawfare brigade. Democratic dissent is not allowed. And the language is truly Orwellian: “. . . . . . will require the public to make green choices.” Well if it’s a requirement, then it’s not a choice is it! Disgusting from this current administration and Labour will be even worse. Mandatory impoverishment and immiseration beckons. Civil war does too.
Comment posted with hyperlinks removed. First went into moderation!
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I give up! I removed the hyperlinks and the comment I made has still gone into moderation!
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Jaime,
I agree that we will get nowhere whilst the narrative of ‘settled science’ is unchallengeable. I do hope you are wrong about civil war. There will be strife, but I expect it to be very disorganised.
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How stupid do they think we are, I wonder? Quite stupid, it would seem. It’s quite obvious that it is possible to disprove the necessity of Net Zero without any knowledge of climate change. All you need to do is to observe what is happening around the world.
Our gov’t may not have heard of freeloading, but it’s very clear that any transition costs endured by UK taxpayers benefit non-UK taxpayers to a far larger degree (inasmuch as there are such benefits). This is because the UK population is only 1% of the whole and endure all the costs, while the benefits are spread out evenly.
Other countries are not on the same path as us. Their actions seem to indicate to a rational observer that they understand the benefits of fossil fuels to far outweigh the costs of fossil fuels.
The plan only makes sense if all other countries join us. Otherwise, we take the pain, and not the alleged gain.
That is why I suggested a better approach for us would be to promise to match global average per capita CO2 emissions, rather than promise zero CO2 emissions. It is achievable and the level of pain depends on others joining us.
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The costs of global inaction to tackle climate change significantly outweigh the costs of action. Indeed, delaying action will only put future generations at risk.
If you take this stuff seriously then global inaction may well be a problem. But as the Impact Assessment to the CCA makes clear, in the absence of global action, the UK will be incurring costs and seeing no benefits. Given that most of the nations on the planet are cheerfully increasing their emissions, why then does the government persist with an agenda that ignores its own logic and which ignores the contents of the Impact Assessment relating to the statute in whose name the agenda is pursued?
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Francis Menton has another good post today. Titled ‘The Green Energy Wall Cannot Arrive Quickly Enough’, it’s about how practical obstacles will end the quest for net zero long before the target date is reached. A short, easy and entertaining read: https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-5-13-the-green-energy-wall-cant-arrive-quickly-enough.
How close is the UK to Menton’s ‘Wall’?
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Jaime and John R: you won’t be surprised to hear that I believe the Government’s response to the petition demonstrates why it’s best to ignore the ‘Science’ altogether. As I believe I’ve demonstrated, it’s possible to completely destroy the case for Net Zero without mentioning the ‘Science’ – and, by so doing, avoiding endless painful argument.
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Robin,
And you won’t be surprised to hear that I disagree. You have demonstrated that it is possible to completely destroy the case for Net Zero, but apparently that still doesn’t mean anything to those who feel compelled by the science.
We are never going to agree with each other on this point, so I think the best thing to do is to leave each other to fight the good fight as we see fit.
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