In Could Do Better I made reference to the series of reports on the state of the UK climate, eight to that point in time, but now nine, following the recent publication of the report for 2022. A study of the reports reveals, over a period of nine years, UK weather varying from year to year. However, it doesn’t seem to matter what the weather was in any given year, it is always consistent with “climate change”, that short-hand for the climate going to hell in a hand-cart, and it all being our fault.
The report for 2014 offers us an Executive Summary, the main points of which are as follows:
The warmest year on record, in the UK, England, Wales and Scotland since 1910, and for Central England since 1659, as documented by the Central England Temperature series (CET). Pretty dramatic stuff.
Not surprisingly, the fewest air and ground frosts on record in the UK, in a series going back to 1961.
The second highest growing degree days in the UK in a series going back to 1960.
The fourth wettest year in the UK in records going back to 1910.
2013/14 winter was the wettest in England and Wales in a series going back to 1766.
2014 was not a snowy year for the UK as a whole.
2014 was marginally sunnier than average for England and Wales, but duller for Scotland.
It’s perhaps worth looking at the rainfall data in a little more detail:
A large contribution to the annual rainfall total came from the very wet weather during winter storms in January and February. Winter 2013/14 was exceptionally wet and stormy and this was easily the wettest winter in both the UK series from 1910 and the longer running England and Wales Precipitation series from 1766. For much of Scotland and south-east England rainfall totals were double the long-term average, and some locations in the south-east received 75% of a years’ rainfall in just 2 months. The winter storms brought the most significant flooding of the calendar year in January and February, with the Somerset Levels and Thames valley worst affected. In general it was the persistence of the storms rather than the intensity of any individual event which led to the prolonged flooding in these areas. In comparison, with only a few notable exceptions the weather during the rest of the year was relatively benign. May, October and November were rather wetter than average and August especially so across Northern Scotland. It was the wettest August in Northern Scotland from 1910, largely as a result of rainfall from ex-hurricane Bertha which brought extensive flooding across parts of north-east Scotland from 10th to 12th August. Heavy thunderstorms at times during the summer also caused some localised flash-flooding, for example across East Anglia in July. However, in contrast high pressure dominated during most of September and large swathes of the country received less than 20% of the monthly average rainfall; it was the driest September in the UK series.
Just as with the summer of 1976, which sticks in the memory because it was so unusual, I also remember the very wet winter of 2013/14 and the fact that it was very mild, both of which also struck me at the time as being unusual.
So far so good. One might say that the first in the series of nine (to date) annual reports on the state of the UK climate perfectly illustrates the impact of man-made climate change. A very warm year overall, a very wet and stormy winter, an unusually intense storm in August, very little snow and the fewest recorded frosts. No surprise to read this in the Guardian:
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics (LSE), said the record temperatures in 2014 were “part of a pattern”, with most of the hottest and wettest years occurring since 2000.
“This is clear evidence of the impact of man-made climate change on the UK,” he said.
2015’s report, however, doesn’t play ball (except in respect of rainfall). Whereas 2014 was the warmest year on record, the year that followed was only the 16th warmest in the UK since 1910, and only the 25th warmest in the CET series. Air and ground frosts were below average, but “not exceptionally so for the year overall”. While 2014 saw the second highest growing degree days, 2015 was “near average”. It was the seventh wettest year, but with Storm Desmond in December, that isn’t surprising. Thanks to it, December 2015 was the wettest calendar month on record for the UK, and records were set during the storm for the highest 24 hour and 2-day rainfall totals. There was more snow than in 2014, though again it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. Winter and April were the sunniest on record (in a series going back to 1919), but November was the dullest on record. Despite Storm Desmond, the number of storms weren’t unusual, which was consistent with a lack of any trend over the previous four decades to any increase in storminess.
There is no doubt that Storm Desmond brought terrific amounts of rainfall. It’s worth commenting that as regards the records set, I remember that there was controversy in this regard, because the record was claimed by a rainfall gauge at Honister, which was relatively recently in situ. That fact alone rendered less significant (in the eyes of critics) the claim that it was a record in a rainfall data series going back to 1910.
In any event, undaunted by the lack of the warmth that we were told would be the result of climate change, the weather for 2015 was linked (albeit with a minor caveat) to climate change anyway, thanks to Storm Desmond:
Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist, says “It’s too early to say definitively whether climate change has made a contribution to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors.
“However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems, suggests there may be a link between climate change and record-breaking winter rainfall. Last month, we published a paper showing that for the same weather pattern, an extended period of extreme UK winter rainfall is now seven times more likely than in a world without human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
2016 also refused to warm up. For the UK as a whole it was the 13th warmest year since 1910, and the 22nd warmest in the CET series. Air and ground frosts were below average, but not exceptionally so. Growing degree days were described only as being “slightly above average”. Rainfall was slightly below average, though by something of a sleight of hand (referring to the winter of December 2015 – February 2016, which of course included Storm Desmond, which featured so prominently in the previous year’s report) the report managed to claim a second wettest winter since 1910. By contrast, October and December 2016 were “notably dry”. There were some snowfalls, but it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. It was slightly sunnier than average (104% of the 1981-2010 average), and the number and severity of storms were not unusual.
The reality is that it’s a struggle to link a year of largely normal weather to climate. It’s a good job that Storm Desmond can be counted as part of the 2015-16 winter, thus enabling the 2016 weather to be linked to climate change. In November 2018 an Environment Agency document titled “Climate change impacts and adaptation” managed to make the putative link:
England has recently experienced several extreme weather events. Heavy, prolonged rainfall, leading to significant floods in winter 2013 to 2014 and again in 2015 to 2016.
Back in 2018, statements about climate change tended to include caveats that I’m not sure we’ll see much if at all going forward, if this summer’s hysteria in the media is anything to go by. In November 2018, however, the Environment Agency put it like this:
It is not possible to say that human-induced climate change has caused these events, but they are consistent with the weather expected with a warming climate.
2017 saw a return of warmer weather. It was the 5th warmest in the UK (since 1910) and the 8th warmest in the long-running CET series. Air frosts were below average, and ground frosts were the fourth lowest in a series going back to 1961. Growing days were the fifth-equal highest (since 1960). Rainfall for the UK overall was 97% of the 1981–2010 average and 102% of the 1961–1990 average, so pretty average overall. However, June was the second-wettest June in Scotland since 1910.
Wales and lowland England saw significant snowfall on 10th December (the heaviest in over four years), but in a long-term context, it wasn’t a particularly snowy year. Sunshine for the UK overall was exactly 100% of the 1981–2010 average and 103% of the 1961–1990 average. There were seven named storms, but their number and severity weren’t unusual compared to recent decades.
In short, 2017 was a pretty average and undramatic year, with nothing – one might have thought – for people of alarm to be alarmed about.
And yet, despite the report saying categorically that “[t]here are no compelling trends in storminess as determined by maximum gust speeds from the UK wind network over the last four decades”, the Guardian still picked up on a report in 2017 commissioned by the Association of British Insurers, as a result of which it earnestly assured us:
The UK is set to reap the whirlwind of climate change with the huge damage caused by wind storms expected to increase sharply, according to new analysis.
Even the minimum global warming now expected – just 1.5C – is projected to raise the cost of windstorm destruction by more than a third in parts of the country. If climate change heats the world even further, broken roofs and damaged buildings are likely to increase by over 50% across a swathe of the nation.
The research shows all of the UK is on track to see rises in high winds except the south and south-west, with the greatest impact across the Midlands, Yorkshire and Northern Ireland. This is because the main storms that barrel in off the Atlantic are expected to move their track northwards as the planet warms, a phenomenon linked to the rapid melting being seen in the Arctic.
Never mind four decades of data, trust the models!
2018 was a bit less anodyne, it has to be said. It was the 7th warmest year in the UK since 1884, and the fourth warmest in the CET series. The summer was the UK’s equal-warmest and the warmest in the CET. Summer seems to have distorted the average for the year upwards, because winter wasn’t so warm. The number of air frosts were only slightly below average, and the number of ground frosts was only 11th-equal lowest (since 1961), and growing degree days were third-highest since 1960.
Rainfall for the UK overall was 92% of the 1981–2010 average and 96% of the 1961–1990 average. Whereas the summer of 2017 was wetter than usual, and especially so in Scotland in June, 2018 turned that on its head, with June 2018 being the driest in England since 1925.
2018, of course, was the year of the Beast From the East, and:
From late February to early March the UK experienced the most significant spell of widespread snow since December 2010.
I remember it well – it was horrendous. But we are told that although “2018 was a relatively snowy year in the context of the last two decades, [it was] near average compared to the last 60- years.”
2018 seemed determined to prove that climate change does not equate to consistent trends. What the UK weather did last year is no guide to what this year’s weather will be. Thus, 2018’s sunshine was 114% of average, making it the third sunniest year since 1929, while the three months from May to July represented the sunniest three months period for the UK on record.
There were ten named storms, but again they weren’t unusual in either their number or severity. And whatever the ABI and weather models said in 2017, we were again assured that “[t]here are no compelling trends in storminess as determined by maximum gust speeds from the UK wind network over the last five decades.”
Despite some climate scientists urging caution when discussing the polar vortex and the causes of the Beast From the East, the Guardian did its best to blame climate change:
Q: Snow in winter. That feels reassuringly normal. Does this mean the climate has fixed itself?
A: Unfortunately not. In fact, many scientists are concerned this is a prelude to more extreme and less predictable weather.
Q: What are they worried about?
A: In the past couple of weeks, there has been a heatwave in the sunless Arctic even though the northern polar region has not had any sunlight since October. At times it has been warmer than London, Paris or New York.
Q: What is so unusual about that? We have known for some time that the Arctic is warming.
A: Yes, but even veteran climatologists have been shocked by the recent temperature spike. Instead of the gradual year-by-year rise that they were expecting, there has been jolt upwards that experts have described as “crazy”, “weird”, “shocking” and “worrying”.
So the cold period in late winter and early spring was down to climate change, but so was the hot summer. Three years later an article appeared at the Met Office website which stated that “Research has shown climate change made the 2018 record-breaking UK summer temperatures about 30 times more likely than it would be naturally.”
2019 must have come as a disappointment to people of an alarmed persuasion, after the hot summer of 2018. In fact 2019 was only the 12th warmest year since 1884 and the 24th warmest in the CET series. But wait a minute, not so disappointing! If you can’t have a particularly hot year, at least there are some new records to be broken:
Four national UK high temperature records were set in 2019: a new all-time record (38.7°C), a new winter record (21.2°C), a new December record (18.7°C) and a new February minimum temperature record (13.9°C). No national low temperature records were set.
February 2019 was the second warmest February in the series from 1884 and the warmest February for daily maximum temperature.
2019 was also the sixth consecutive year when the number of air and ground frosts was below average, while ground frosts were the 10th lowest since 1961. Growing degree days were above average, but not exceptionally so.
Rainfall for the UK overall was 107% of the 1981–2010 average and 112% of the 1961–1990 average. England and Wales saw their fifth wettest autumn since 1766, though it was nothing like as wet as 2000, which remained the wettest autumn in the series.
Snow fell fairly wildly at the end of January and at the beginning of February, but (we are solemnly advised) “this was not unusual for the time of year.” Snow in winter, and it’s not unusual. At least climate change hasn’t messed with that yet!
Despite higher than average rainfall, sunshine for the UK overall was 105% of the 1981–2010 average and 109% of 1961–1990 average. There were six named storms, but it wasn’t a stormy year, and the lack of any trend towards increased storminess continued.
Nevertheless, some areas experienced flooding in June and some flash flooding in July. There was severe flooding in November (this was the year of the Fishlake floods). Despite that, northern and western Scotland were much drier than average.
Matt McGrath reported on the Fishlake floods for the BBC, and it was a very balanced article, pointing to the many factors behind the flooding, including not least the fact that it was built on a boggy fenland drained many years ago. Still the article ended inevitably like this:
Is what we’ve seen in Yorkshire a vision of the future?
“Yes it is a foretaste of the future,” said Dr Liz Sharp.
“It will happen in different places, we need to be expecting this to happen more often.”
Other experts agree that the future environment will be a challenge.
“We’re running behind with climate change – we need to really speed up if we are going to keep on top of the problems that are being exacerbated by the change in the climate,” said Prof Cloke.
And the February heat was duly reported with similar predictability by the Guardian:
Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the Met Office, said: “For a lot of people an opportunity to enjoy a nice day but for many others it was shocking to see values above 20C. Clearly having that warm weather record broken is, we think, largely to do with climate change, amplifying those warm events. That was widely recognised by the public.”
Previous Met Office studies show the man-made carbon emissions in the atmosphere made last summer’s heatwave 30 times more likely, and extremes of heat are now being recorded 10 times more often than extremes of cold.
2020 saw the Executive Summary commence with a hard-hitting opening statement:
The UK’s climate is changing. Recent decades have been warmer, wetter and sunnier than the 20th century.
2020 was third warmest, fifth wettest and eight sunniest on record for the UK. Air and ground frosts were the fourth lowest in the series. Growing degree days were the 8th highest since 1960.
It was also a wet year – “2020 was the UK’s fifth wettest year in a series from 1862, with 116% of the 1981–2010 average and 122% of the 1961–1990 average rainfall.” And yet, despite having the wettest February and the fifth wettest winter, it also had the fifth driest spring and the driest May on record in England (as I remember all too painfully while the Government imposed a covid lockdown on us). But the dry spring didn’t last:
3 October 2020 was one of the UK’s wettest days on record in a daily series from 1891, with storms Ciara and Dennis on 8th/15th February and storm Bella on 26th December also in the UK’s top 40 wettest days.
Snow was limited to upland and northern areas, and 2020 was one of the least snowy years on record.
2020 was the eighth sunniest year for the UK in a series from 1919, with 109% of the 1981–2010 average and 113% of 1961–1990 average sunshine hours. In particular, it was also the sunniest UK spring on record, with summer being sunnier than usual.
There were ten named storms, and despite heavy precipitation associated with some of them, it was still “a fairly typical year for storminess” and there was still no long-term trend towards more storminess.
This time the report itself starts talking about attributing events to climate change:
February 2020 was the UK’s fifth wettest calendar month on record, but in addition, with 242% of the 1981–2010 long-term average this was the highest rainfall anomaly of any calendar month in the UK series from 1862. Four out of the top-10 wettest months in both lists (actuals and anomalies) have occurred since 2000—with five of the top-10 wettest months by anomaly falling in February. Davies et al.,2021, describes winter 2019/2020—including February 2020—in more detail, including meteorological drivers, predictability and attribution to climate change.
Despite that, 2021 seems in many ways to have been unexceptional. I wrote about it in more detail in Could Do Better. It was only the 18th warmest year in the UK series since 1884. Winter and spring were colder than the 1991–2020 average. However, 2021 included the UK’s ninth warmest summer and equal-third warmest autumn on record in a series from 1884.
Rainfall was broadly average – 2021 rainfall was 95% of the 1991–2020 average and 102% of the 1961–1990 average – but with swings from month to month. 2021 saw the UK’s fifth driest April and second wettest May in a monthly series from 1836.
The numbers of air and ground frosts in 2021 were above the 1991–2020 average. The numbers of air frosts and ground frosts in April 2021 were the highest on record for the UK in a series from 1960. There was also widespread and significant snowfall in early February.
It was this which prompted me to write Global Cooling on 20th May 2021. At such a late stage in the year, I commenced it as follows:
The year 2021 has seen the coldest start to a year that I can remember in the north of England (my memory realistically goes back to the mid-late 1960s). That’s not to say that it has been the coldest start to the year here, since memory is a fickle thing. And of course, weather in one small part of the world does not represent weather globally, nor can a few months of weather be said to be representative of climatic trends.
That said, is there any significant global cooling going on? I mean, I know it’s cold here – crossing the Pennines the other day, according to my car thermometer, a drop of another 2 or 3C and it could have started snowing. We still have daffodils in full bloom in the second half of May. The trees round here have only really started showing leafage in the last week or so.
The UK 2021 annual sunshine total was 99% of the 1991–2020 average, and April 2021 was the UK’s equal-sunniest April on record in a series from 1919, shared with April 2020, and also the sunniest calendar month of the year.
Interestingly, with the notable exception of storm Arwen, the year was less stormy than most other years in recent decades. That ABI report and the models predicting greater storminess continued to be undermined by reality:
There have been fewer occurrences of max gust speeds exceeding 40/50/60 Kt for the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.
The UK annual mean wind speed for 2021 was second lowest in a series from 1969.
The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2021 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally. However, this series must be interpreted with some caution.
Looking back on the year from July 2022 the Met Office managed to pull off the trick of acknowledging that the year “was in some regards a relatively unremarkable year in the UK’s recent climatology” and yet also claiming “[i]n a changing climate we expect variability from year-to-year.
2022 saw that infamous record temperature (even if a record set at an airfield when three jets are landing is a bit dodgy) so this is no surprise:
The UK’s record warm year of 2022 and unprecedented July heatwave were both made more likely by climate change.
2022 was the warmest year in the UK series from 1884, 0.9°C above the 1991–2020 average. It was the first year to record a UK annual mean temperature above 10°C.
40°C was recorded in the UK for the first time during a heatwave which exceeded previous records by a large margin.
Given those dramatic statistics, it is then a little surprising that no season during the year set a record, the most that could be said being that they were all in the “top ten”. Similarly, although air and ground frosts were below average, neither were exceptionally low (though growing degree days were the highest in the series). Despite the summer drought, it was only the driest summer since 1995, and rainfall was 94% of the 1991–2020 average over the year as a whole. The year also saw the 8th wettest February on record, though January, March and April were drier than usual. In fact we are told that there has been a slight increase in heavy rainfall across the UK in recent decades, which doesn’t seem particularly worrying. Not surprisingly, it was one of the least snowy years on record.
While England had its equal sunniest year, it was only the 7th sunniest year over the UK as a whole. But January was the sunniest January in the series in England, while March was the sunniest in the series for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Interestingly, winter and spring are showing a recent trend towards greater sunniness, which doesn’t seem like a bad thing. 2022 was comparable in storminess with other years in recent decades, although the five named storms were all in January and February, which was unusual.
For those of us who remember 1976 this is interesting:
The period January–August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976, with drought status declared across parts of England and all of Wales. [My emphasis].
This is also interesting. Despite it being a warm year overall:
In December 2022, the UK experienced one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since December 2010.
That’s recent history, and I remember it all too painfully – quite a few of our garden shrubs of long-standing failed to make it through the bitter cold of last winter.
Never mind the cold, though, it’s the heat that we have to remember. The Met Office has just announced “Record breaking 2022 indicative of future UK climate”:
Met Office studies found both the record warm year and July heatwave were made more likely by human induced climate change.
It’s much too early, at just seven months in, to know what the report on the UK’s climate in 2023 will look like. My personal observation is that it was a cold winter with some vicious cold snaps; spring was delayed; we had a hot dry June in some areas (though I am convinced it wasn’t as hot as the Met Office would have us believe, nor consistently hot across the entire country); and July was cool and damp, with more of the same in view in August. So bad has been the later part of the summer, that the BBC yesterday had an article headed “UK weather: When will it stop raining and the summer improve?”. The article acknowledged that “[f]or weeks now, the UK’s weather has been unsettled – with widespread rain, cooler temperatures and an autumnal feel”, and that it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue through much of August. That doesn’t stop it making the link with climate change:
Is this year’s damp summer linked to climate change? The change in jet position does happen sometimes – but the extreme heat in the south is more than likely why it’s out of place this time, says BBC Weather’s Paul Goddard. Climate change makes extreme heat worse, scientists say.
“The atmosphere is one big balancing act. Just because it is raining here doesn’t mean to say it isn’t a product of climate change,” says Paul.
There is a nursery rhyme that goes like this:
Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
We’ll weather the weather, whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not.
I think it’s time to update it:
Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
They’ll tell us the weather, whatever the weather,
Is consistent with man-made climate change
Whether we like it or not.
It seems that climate science is as unsettled as the weather.
Climate Scepticism 
The fundamental tool of all irrational cults: tautology.
LikeLike
Facts are facts, but some get mistaken for other facts, and others get buried. This is a cause of climate chaos.
LikeLike
I suspect that if Isaac Fletcher could speak to us from the troubled climate paradigm of the mid-late 18th century, that we are told we have to preserve at all costs, he would want to know what we think the problem is.
LikeLike
Have you noticed how the Met Orifice have broken the CET record to minimise the exceptional 1976 summer, Mark?
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F418b712a-c447-4df8-8dcf-203b343f3fb4_1105x607.webp
LikeLiked by 1 person
“In December 2022, the UK experienced one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since December 2010.”
Yes, it was a bit ‘fresh’ in December 2022. How variable is the British weather? I remember Dec 2010 very clearly. A 1000 mile long easterly wind flow set itself up from Central Siberia direct to the UK. The ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018 had nothing on December 2010. December 2010 was the SECOND COLDEST in Central England since 1659, beaten only by 1890. The monthly mean (-0.7C) was one of only seven negatives in the entire series. Dec 2010 was significantly colder than Dec 1676. That’s how variable the British weather is!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thanks, Jaime,
Well, we are both correct about how lousy July 2023. This BBC article reports the Met Office confirming as much:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66371704
Of course, this can’t be allowed to put a damper on alarm about climate change.
“Some scientists think that higher temperatures due to climate change in the Arctic – which has warmed more than four times faster than the global average – are causing the jet stream to slow, increasing the likelihood of high pressure and hot weather remaining in place.
Global warming means hot temperatures and wetter periods will become more typical for the UK.
Hotter air is able to hold more moisture – and it falls back to ground in heavy downpours.”
This is despite such wet weather being supposed to occur in the UK winter. We were assured after a hot dry summer in 2022 and a hot dry June this year that hot dry summers were the new normal thanks to climate change.
If the next couple of summers are wet and cool, that will be the new normal… until the next hot dry one.
LikeLiked by 2 people
They never give up Mark. It’s sad, comical and infuriating, all at the same time.
LikeLiked by 1 person
People have such short term memories.
Currently the NZ media are regaling us about how we need to expect summers to be wetter. https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/100665515/warm-and-wet-is-this-our-new-summer-
Ten years ago they were telling us, same site, that drought would be the new normal: https://www.stuff.co.nz/ipad-editors-picks/8405004/North-Island-drought-worst-in-history
The worst thing is not that the media have literally turned 180 degrees, but that people who lived through the dry periods seem to not be able to remember them.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I remember the summer floods of 2012, which happened after a prolonged drought from winter 2009 to 2011. The MSM reported that it was the shape of summers to come because of climate change. Here’s what the Met Office have said about the period:
“After a dry start to April, the Jet Stream adopted a persistent southerly track (Figure 20) and the associated westerly airflow brought successive pulses of heavy rainfall across most of the country. This synoptic pattern remained dominant throughout the remainder of a year in which many existing national, regional and local rainfall records were eclipsed.”
Hmm, sounds familiar! The difference being, June 2023 was very dry, then July was very wet. In 2012, the deluge started in spring. Who knows how long this current wet weather and southerly jet stream configuration may last. It may persist throughout the rest of the summer and well into autumn. But that’s the British weather throughout recorded history; it has a habit of going from one extreme to another. Summer 1911 and summer 1912 springs immediately to mind. So many other examples. Yes, people do have very short memories and thus they are easily exploited by propagandists in government and the media.
“April was the wettest in the EWP series with rainfall totals approaching four times the average in a few localities. The cool, unsettled weather conditions continued well into May, but rainfall totals were mostly near average for the month overall. June, however, replicated April by exceeding the previous monthly maximum for England & Wales. Locally, there were several extremely wet interludes: on the 8th/9th a 48-hour rainfall total of 186 mm was recorded at Dinas reservoir (central Wales); on the 22nd Honister (in the Lake District) reported a rain day total of 208 mm; and on the 28th short period rainfall rates equivalent to over 50 mm an hour were reported19 (other exceptional rainfall events are listed in Table 9). Generally however it was the persistent spells of heavy rain that contributed most to the extreme April-June rainfall. For England & Wales, it was the wettest April-June period by a margin equivalent to an additional month’s rainfall. Cyclonic conditions continued through the first two-thirds of July with exceptional 48-hour rainfall totals over the 6th and 7th in east Devon20 – a number of rain gauges registered >100 mm.”
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503643/1/N503643CR.pdf
LikeLiked by 2 people
Chester and Jaime,
Short memories are relied on by those pushing climate propaganda. I suspect that’s the reason why last year the propagandists worked so hard to tell us that last year was more exceptional than 1976 and that 1976 was neither so hot nor so dry as we remembered. The problem was that 1976 was so exceptional, that those of us who lived through it do remember it, vividly, and no amount of propaganda will overturn that.
More mundane weather, though, such as a wet summer followed by a dry one or vice versa, is more easily forgotten, and they rely heavily on that. In that way, whatever the weather, it can be described as the new normal and the fault of climate change – until the following year’s (different) weather, which will again be the new normal, and also entirely consistent with climate change.
No, as Jaime points out, it’s just weather.
Gentle warming, on the other hand, is indisputable, even if some of the temperature records are definitely dodgy, due to the siting of weather stations in places that don’t begin to meet WMO category one standards.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Last year we were regaled with the problems farmers were encountering because of the hot dry summer (the new normal). This year we get this:
“Reading farmer’s profits down 36% due to recent wet weather”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66370228
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark,
Agricultural productivity and thus profitability depends on the weather. Who’dve thunk it? As a farmer, you take the good years with the bad. That’s the nature of the business. Livestock farmers are not complaining – the grass is growing very nicely thank you!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jaime, indeed.
I may have mentioned here at the time that last August while on holiday in south Wales my wife and I bumped into a farming couple from Cambridgeshire. Inevitably we discussed the heat and drought, and I asked how it had affected them. They weren’t unhappy. Very wisely they majored on two very different crops, one of which was dependent on rain (sugar beet) the other on dry conditions (wheat). The sugar beet was a total failure last year, but their wheat crop was exceptional and very profitable. This year it will probably be the other way round.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I wrote this in 2006:
Click to access social_construction.pdf
The original was published in ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT, VOLUME 18 No. 6 2007
They were spinning back then.
“The Met Office are so worried about the credibility of global warming theory in the face of contrary experience with current weather patterns, and the coldest winter for many years, that they felt it necessary to draw the attention of the public to this question.
Their figures are usually presented as charts of “anomalies” compared to the thirty-year period 1961-1990, following a convention laid down by the WMO. It is supposed to be updated every ten years but so far there is limited presentation against 1971-2000 data. However, if a period like 1961-90 is used, with a lot of cold winters and indifferent summers, then it is logical that as the weather returns to a more acceptable pattern it will be “above average” compared to the earlier period.
This was the original forecast in September 2005:
Our latest predictions indicate a colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK – especially southern regions – are expected to have temperatures below normal. The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are ‘normal’. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.
A subsequent web page made the point: “why are we predicting a colder than average winter when we are at the same time talking about climate change”. They even produced an FAQ on the subject, including this pertinent “belief-related” question and answer:
Q) So, does it mean that global warming is on hold?
A) No. The forecast of a colder-than-average winter is based on the prediction of atmospheric circulation patterns that change from year to year. Increased frequencies of easterly and northerly winds are expected this year. Basically, it is the direction of the wind that brings the lower-than-average temperatures. “
LikeLiked by 2 people
In summary …
LikeLiked by 1 person
And there was me thinking the new normal of climate change-induced hot, drought-ridden summers were the thing we had to worry about…
“Fears of food inflation rise as UK harvests hit by cool, wet summer
Farmers warn wheat, oilseed rape, potatoes and other crops have been affected after wettest July on record”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/04/fears-of-food-price-inflation-rise-as-uk-harvests-hit-by-cool-wet-summer
LikeLiked by 1 person
On the other hand, there are some winners….
“Wet weather sends UK sales of roasts and custard soaring
Stores saw unseasonal spending pattern as rain-soaked July shoppers plumped for winter comfort food”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/04/winter-comfort-food-binge-brings-solace-uk-rain-soaked-summer-shoppers
LikeLiked by 1 person
For the past I don’t know how many years we have seen crop irrigation sprayers working night and day in fields of cereals and potatoes. This year there are none ! In previous non drought summer’s they were working in the lighter soil fields to keep crops going. We have been told regularly the water table has dropped and so the ground is dry deeper making it more like the Sahara than our green and pleasant land. As Old farmer McLaren said before, the fields round here look better this year than they have for quite a time.
LikeLiked by 1 person
A rare Guardian article that fails to mention climate change:
“Unseasonably wet weather threatens UK harvest, say farmers
Soggy July has affected wheat, barley and hay crops as waterlogged soil makes some harder to harvest”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/07/unseasonably-wet-weather-harvest-uk-farmers-wheat-barley-hay
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Heatwave to washout – what happened to Scotland’s summer?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66657562
But the BBC report, despite the headline, repeatedly tells us how hot it was in Europe:
And – of course – whatever the weather, it’s climate change:
Eh? Where are BBC Verify and the Climate Misinformation team when you need them?
LikeLiked by 1 person
None of that makes even the slightest sense Mark. They’re really struggling aren’t they? They seem to have given up entirely on attempting fact-based, coherent reporting. It’s just a mish-mash of misinformation/disinformation/ignorance/stupidity combined with the usual tired climate alarmist talking points.
LikeLiked by 2 people
“If we were to eliminate emissions tomorrow, the planet would continue warming for at least the next century.
So a dual focus has to also be on preparing for the impact of more severe storms, bigger wildfires and droughts. Exactly what we’ve been seeing in Scotland this year but worse.”
so any weather event we are used to “but worse.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
PS – had a quick look at the “highest rated” comments under that BBC Scotland article.
the article gets a panning, seems we are not alone in spotting BS 😉
LikeLike
Dougie, that’s a good spot. The critical comments, which are most of them, receive a lot more ups than downs, that’s for sure.
LikeLike
“Christmas Eve: Hottest since 1997 after 15.3C recorded near Heathrow”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67817500
Yet another “record” set at or near an airport. Read on, and it’s utterly insignificant in the scheme of things:
Meanwhile:
Relatively warm? OK, it’s not cold, but it’s not particularly warm either. There’s nothing to see here, but never mind, the BBC got its headline. Thankfully they didn’t mention climate change.
LikeLike
Well, “warm” UK may be breaking no meaningful records, but the cold in China is doing so:
“Beijing shivers through coldest December on record”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-67818872
Then – in case we get the wrong idea – we are reminded:
Things really are pretty serious, nevertheless:
It’s not clear? Perhaps no, but pretty badly is the answer, I suspect. Worse than if it were hot.
By the way, I think any records (hot or cold, dry or wet) are not terribly meaningful if they cover a period of less than 3/4 of a century. Nevertheless, it’s interesting that this has happened against a relentless backdrop of wailing about a warming world. It’s also a timely (and sad) reminder that many more people, both in the UK and around the world, day of extreme cold than die of extreme heat.
LikeLike
I am currently away from my laptop, so am frustrated in debunking this:
“Warmer winters and more flooding will be the norm in the UK, scientists warn”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/06/warmer-winters-and-more-flooding-will-be-the-norm-in-the-uk-scientists-warn
However, I will content myself with noting that the evidence in support of the claim of wetter winters is a link to a tweet that claims a cherry -picked period from July to December 2023 was the wettest such period in the UK since 1890. Of course, that is a period that includes more summer than winter, so it is not evidence in support of the claim that winters are getting wetter. Worse still, it would seem to actively contradict their other regular claim that climate change will cause more summer droughts in the UK. But never mind, why let the facts get in the way of an alarmist climate change headline?
I agree with some of the other points made, such as the need to spend money on adapting to issues climatique (it makes so much more sense than futilely wasting money on “mitigation” measures that will make no measurable difference to the climate).
Also this from the article:
“However, Britain has dug up its peatland, drained its marshes and built on its flood plains. As a result, the nation has lost much of its natural protection from the effects of flooding.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
Spent a fantastic hour yesterday in the backseat of a little airplane with my grandson doing a flight training circuit. We left Perth airport heading for Pitlochry and the snowy mountains, the sun shining on a clear frosty day. As we approached Pitlochry we could see the hydro dam working on Loch Tummel and the 70 turbines at Drumderg stationery. (We were flying at 3500 ft doing 100 knots so getting the best of views. ) We followed the Tay up to Aberfeldy and Loch Tay , the mountains now very snowy and Loch reflecting the scene, climbed up to 4000 ft and turned over the snow heading for the Strathearn (Crieff) . Now this was more like a wet winter scene, the River Earn had come over its banks in quite a few places but it is a very flat floodplain. Followed the river round the back of Perth and could see Dundee and the Tay bridges with the sun behind us lighting up the view. I bet Cumbria and the lakes would be just as good if it’s snowy.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sun shining again today — 5 c in the garden, the sun barely gets to it at this time of year. Only excitement today is a trip to Tesco in Perth so will probably get a pain in my heart when I see the mountains again !
LikeLike
I have no wish to minimise the dreadful effect of flooding on people affected by it, but I think this article is ridiculous:
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2024/jan/05/heavy-flooding-is-climate-crisis-wake-up-call-for-uk-says-tewkesbury-abbey-canon
It acknowledges that the area round Tewkesbury has always flooded, then launches (without evidence) into the usual claim that climate change is making floods like this more common. The whole article is a handle for a climate activist church man to peddling his line. The irony, of course, is the accompanying photo, showing the abbey high and dry, surrounded by flood water. It was built there, of course, precisely because its builders knew that it was the only land in those parts that was usually safe from flooding.
LikeLiked by 2 people
James S,
I am envious. The weather is also glorious in Cumbria, but just at the moment I am on the wet eastern side of the country.
LikeLike
It was good to actually walk on hard ground today, not wade through a muddy swamp! The waterlogged ground has turned to ice and the sun is shining and the wind is not blowing a gale. I took a fantastic picture of the river Cocker ‘steaming’ in the cold air, as the sunbeams filtered through the trees on the bank. The beauty of the British weather is its stunning diversity but with the refreshing absence of equity and inclusion!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Another comment gone into spam. Can someone dig it out please.
LikeLike
Done!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hi Mark!
Can you explain why none of my ‘Likes’ on comments ever show up?
Is it a bug in WordPress, do you think?
LikeLike
Sorry to hear that. I fear it’s a WP bug. Are you logged in to WP?
LikeLike
Seems like it!
Would it let me post if I wasn’t?
LikeLike
Cat,
In theory you can comment without being a WordPress subscriber and without being signed in to it. However, when the recent WP glitch hit, some people seemed to struggle to comment unless doing so via WP account. In theory, those problems are supposed to be resolved.
I was always able to comment and like comments, without having a WP account, but I don’t know the situation now, as in order to write articles here, I had to subscribe to WP and am now permanently logged in to it.
Sorry that’s not so helpful as it might be.
LikeLike
No snow yet, sun still shining but ominous clouds moving in !
LikeLike
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-68036507
At 10.10am on the rolling commentary.
“More intense storms down to climate change, meteorologist says
Putting Isha into context, a senior meteorologist from the Met Office has explained that the “more intense” storms the UK is experiencing are caused by climate change.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast, Claire Nasir said: “In 2023, we began on a rainfall deficit and had two intense heatwaves, yet the UK saw the 11th wettest year on record.”
She explained this shift between extremes in weather patterns in the UK would continue in the future.
If you’d like to read more about climate change and how it is affecting our weather, here’s a simple guide….”
Whatever the weather, the Met Office and the BBC can always be relied upon to blame man-made climate change.
LikeLike
Was speaking to an SSE line engineer last night storm causing mayhem with turbines, wind speed varying by 50km/h and dropping to virtually 0 at times. Grid figures seem very strange this morning, we are still importing 16% with nuke and bio running at 7% , just be dirt cheap stuff coming in from EU maybe from LIDL and ALDI ???
LikeLike
James S, it won’t be dirt cheap. See my last article (A Grain of Truth)!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Wind output is just shy of 21 GW as I type which, iirc, is very close to the all-time record.
That prompted a thought: what is the maximum capacity factor across the whole fleet? I think we have about 30 GW of nameplate wind capacity so it looks as if the best-ever performance is 70%.
Of course that contrasts poorly with dispatchable systems.
So, alongside the well-known intermittency problems, it should be noted that 70% of nameplate is the most we can ever expect to get from all those systems.
LikeLiked by 2 people
The Met Office last night issued a red weather warning for winds in NE Scotland for the early hours. I checked various locations there and none of them were predicting gusts much in excess of 70mph. Yet here in NW England, they were predicting gusts of up to 74mph, but only issued an amber warning. I quizzed them on this but got no reply. It seems to me that they had to get a scary red warning in before Isha headed off, so chose eastern Scotland to do it. Now no doubt it will be climate change which is causing us to race through the alphabet of named deep Atlantic depressions. Pathetic.
LikeLike
You’re free from Spam now, Jaime . Apologies once again.
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Constant clouds over US Great Lakes area could hurt residents’ mental health
Grand Rapids saw just five minutes of sun in the first week of the year, while January was the cloudiest in Chicago in 129 years”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/27/us-great-lakes-clouds-sunlight-mental-health
“…it’s difficult to establish a direct link between climate change and wintertime cloud cover…” but it doesn’t stop them having a go.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark,
If it’s difficult to establish a link between climate change and cloud cover, the chemtrail conspiracists have no such problems in blaming, variously, British Airways, American Airlines, Delta, the military, etc., or the globalist cabal or the government, or ‘them’ for spraying the skies and blocking out sunshine. There’s no end of posts on ‘X’ showing high altitude persistent plane trails accompanied by complaints that ‘they stole muh sunshine’. Even perfectly natural low level cloud formations are being blamed on a government conspiracy now. Whilst it is true that persistent spreading contrails are a mess and, perhaps because there are a lot more aircraft and the upper atmosphere is relatively more humid now than it used to be, the number of days with clear blue skies and unbroken sunshine is decreasing, one does not have to invent a nefarious global conspiracy to account for it – just like one does not have to invent a ‘climate crisis’ to account for increasing low level cloud cover in winter. But if you try to engage these people with facts, they just shrug them off, like water off a duck’s back.
LikeLiked by 1 person
‘If it’s difficult to establish a link between climate change and cloud cover’…
I blame increasing cloud cover on those cheshire sunspots :::
LikeLike
19.6C in northern Scotland! I’m extremely dubious about this. Not a million miles from here and I’ve been out today walking the dogs and it was very cold and blustery. How can there be a highly localised tropical hotspot in northern Scotland when most of the country is hovering at about 9-11C, with strong SOUTHERLY winds making it feel considerably colder?
LikeLike
They’re joking! 27C today in Kinlochewe! I’ve taken a screenshot of this. Unbelievable that the Met Office are on X claiming a new January record!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfhpz0nu4#?date=2024-01-28
LikeLiked by 1 person
It’s possible that it reached 19.6C at Kinlochewe, I suppose. It does seem to be a place where unusually warm temperatures are recorded reasonably regularly (though maybe that should trigger sceptical questions as to the reliability of the thermometer they use). Certainly my frequent visits to Kinlochewe to climb the Torridon hills have almost always seen me encountering wind, rain, low cloud and cool temperatures.
And I can vouch for what you say about the weather in west Cumbria. 10C, according to my car thermometer, gusty cold-feeling winds.
Thanks for the screenshot – hilarious.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It’s partly due to the Foehn Effect according to the BBC. Hmm. 19.6C, maybe just maybe, very highly localised, but the rest of the country has got nowhere near this fantastical figure – and why were the Met Office forecasting 27C? That’s just absurd.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-68119951?
LikeLike
I can guarantee, the climate change mob will be on to this in no time. Where did they take the temp reading? Outside the hotel when the manager switched the heat pump onto air conditioning mode?
LikeLike
The wording of the BBC report is typical of that used when describing localised weather conditions that have nothing to do with climate change:
“The BBC Scotland forecaster and meteorologist Calum MacColl said the balmy weather was due in part to something known as the Foehn effect.”
Of course, the obligatory ‘in part’ allows for a critical contribution from you know what, courtesy of ‘unusually’ mild weather blowing from the south.
Rather than claiming that the temperature was ‘in part’ due to the Foehn effect, they should be pointing out the very local nature of the Foehn effect and stating how much warmer it was in Kinlochewe compared to the average temperature in that part of Scotland. That discrepancy is entirely due to the Foehn effect.
So what was that temperature? I don’t actually know but, as an example, just up the road at Talladale today’s forecast was for a maximum of 13 deg C. Mild for the time of year, but not the climate change storyline that the BBC’s ‘in part’ was meant to insinuate.
https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/fa4fd7f4c34f209dc31147b5b878a867d07c550a2893766766491d1dac1f02f9
LikeLiked by 1 person
The forecast for tomorrow where I live is 4C almost all day!
LikeLike
By the way, Jaime, I endorse what you say in your substack article, but having failed to sign in there to comment, may I add a comment here? Without taking anything away from what you write, can I point out that you live a lot further from Kinlochewe than you suggest in your article. Not that that affects the gist of what you write.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The famous WALLED garden at Inverewe maybe thats where the temp is taken ? The garden is protected from the worst of the elements within it’s wall and according to folklore the Gulf Stream takes a special wee turn up Loch Ewe to keep it cosy during the winter. LOL
LikeLiked by 1 person
1. Met Office’s pdf for Northern Scotland climate suggests “Conversely, occasionally to
the lee of high ground temperatures can reach up to 15 °C in winter when a south or SW airstream warms up after crossing upland – an effect known as a fohn wind.”
Click to access northern-scotland_-climate—met-office.pdf
2. My copy of Barry & Chorley’s “”Atmosphere, Weather and Climate”, 8th ed., suggests near page 123 that fohn or chinook winds may result in large and rapid temperature rises:-
“At Tashkent in Central Asia, where the mean winter temperature is about freezing point, temperatures may rise to more than 21 degC during a fohn … At Pincher Creek, Alberta, a temperature rise of 21 degC occurred in four minutes with the onset of a chinook on 6 January 1966. Less spectacular effects are also noticeable in the lee of … the Grampians in Great Britain.”
3. The NTS site for Inverewe Gardens (https://www.nts.org.uk/visit/places/inverewe) says “Rare species thrive in this heritage garden as the effects of the Gulf Stream meet the Highlands.”
4. So, perhaps, a short-term natural excursion to almost 20 degC is not that improbable. [Or have those pesky Tornados being doing their aerobatics at the Inverewe airshow?]
5. I love the Torridon Mountains, although it is a while since I reached the summit of any of them – good memories though from years ago of Liathach, Beinn Alligin, and the western end of Beinn Eighe.
Regards, John.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Jamie – thanks for your eagle eye sleuthing.
after visiting your MET link, you’ll be glad to know that they have updated the temp for today to 28 degrees.
after playing with the website, I found this – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gfhpz0nu4
which seems to show temp at 11pm Sunday at 15 degrees, the highest over Sat/Sun.
but I could be reading this MET info wrongly.
PS – BBC 6pm weather guy was on the case, another high temp record smashed.
LikeLiked by 1 person
pps – wonder if Fujitsu are writing the software for MET – https://www2.fujitsu.com/uk/uvance/
“The target year for achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is 2030.
At Fujitsu, the future we envision aligns with the SDGs—a sustainable society where no one is left behind.
It’s a world where people, regions, organizations and things are connected and where innovation thrives.
However, in the face of climate change, cybercrime, poverty, and human rights issues, the challenges facing the world have become increasingly complex—no single organization or industry can confront them all.
Building an ecosystem that promotes greater collaboration between governments, companies and individuals is now more urgent than ever.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark, it was a rough guess just eyeballing the map – quite an inaccurate guess as it turns out! More like about 300 miles! I’ll correct that.
LikeLike
I presume that the Foehn Effect has operated in the Kinlochewe location for many centuries but, since records began apparently, it has never driven temperatures as high as 19.6C. The rest of Scotland was mild, but not unusually mild with reference to past January days when the wind has blown from the south, so the initial temperature of the air at the top of the mountains above Kinlochewe must not have been ‘unprecedented’. Therefore, for the record to be broken, this must mean that somehow the dynamics of the Foehn Effect yesterday were ‘unprecedented’, resulting in a greater increase in temperature of the air on the downslope side than has previously been observed. Alternatively, the method of recording temperature in Kinlochewe itself was ‘unprecedented’.
LikeLiked by 1 person
300 miles from Kinlochewe sounds much more like it, Jaime.
LikeLike
I believe there are many, many mountains in Scotland, each with its own downslope. So why wasn’t the foehn effect more widespread? Hell, Scotland should have been a European hotspot.
LikeLike
The arsonists have been dispatched to the Highlands. This is the disgraceful headline published by Sky today:
“Wildfires have been reported in Lochinver, Scotland, following January’s hottest ever temperature being recorded in the UK
A meteorologist told Sky News southern winds have dragged milder air from Africa across the UK, which have triggered higher temperatures. The new record temperature beats the previous January highs of 18.3C set at Inchmarlo and Aboyne in 2003 and Aber in 1958 and 1971.”
Not a single mention of Foehn winds.
https://news.sky.com/video/wildfires-have-been-reported-in-lochinver-scotland-following-januarys-hottest-ever-temperature-being-recorded-in-the-uk-13058877
LikeLiked by 1 person
It is quite common in Scotland for the Heather on the hillside to be burnt in the spring to clear the old dead growth to bring in new fresh shoots which is a good source of food for grouse and then the shooters get good numbers in August. January is a bit early but perhaps after a mild spell it is better to burn as it also helps reduce ticks and other beasties which can plague the birds and sheep.
LikeLike
Have a quick look at this – ” For most of these 50 years, the weather station has been sited to the south end of Inverewe Garden, away from public areas. However, there are now plans to move it to the foreshore in front of the walled garden, as the current location is considered too overgrown to give accurate readings.” taken from this site https://www.nts.org.uk/stories/inverewes-weather-station. My wife and I were at the gardens in July 2021 , I remember it being cool and misty but up at Clachtoll (just north of Lochinver) the sun was splitting the rocks. We were staying in Ullapool , the weather in that glen was also cool and misty, it was the lady in the fish shop told us all the caravaners and campers were heading for Achmelvich and Clachtoll for the sunny weather.
LikeLike
Alan,
In answer to your question, the foehn effect is a common experience in Scotland. It can be highly localised but it can also be discerned within wider patterns of weather. This is from the Met Office’s own website:
“In the UK, the most notable foehn events tend to occur across the Scottish Highlands where the moist prevailing westerly winds encounter high ground along Scotland’s west coast. This results in a marked contrast in weather conditions across the country with the west being subjected to wet weather, whilst the lower lying east enjoys the warmth and sunshine of the foehn effect.”
As I understand it, yesterday’s event(s) were due to a southerly wind. I am not in a position to question the accuracy of the temperatures but I do take issue with the ‘in part’ attribution. I remember about 30 years ago walking on a North Wales beach in the first week of February and the temperature was about 18 deg C. This is another area that is notoriously affected by the foehn effect during southerly winds (Snowdonia being the relevant mountain range), but in those days no one would dream of saying that the resulting temperatures were due ‘in part’ to the effect.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/foehn-effect#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20foehn%20effect,the%20other%20(leeward)%20side.
LikeLike
Jaime, James,
This is the BBC’s understanding of the Lochinver wildfire:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51velxg2yeo
LikeLiked by 1 person
John,
Ah, so it WAS climate change wot dunnit then, because without the strong wind, the mild temperature and the dried out vegetation, the fire wouldn’t have happened!
LikeLike
John, I am a connoisseur of warm weather descending from mountains having spent four winters in Calgary, Alberta where temperatures would rise from long periods of sub-zero temperatures to dizzying heights of snow removing chinooks. All I can advise inhabitants of Kinlochewe Is to protect your gardens from drying out and the sudden return of sub-zero weather. We Calgarians had bundles of straw for the garden for such occurrences.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Alan,
So you will know better than any of us that the most striking aspect of such phenomena is the dramatic variation in temperature that can take place. As I said yesterday, what I am interested in is just how unrepresentative is the 19.6 deg C, i.e. how does it contrast with the generally cooler temperatures on the southern side of the mountain? From what I can see, 13 deg C was the typical forecast for the area, but with high southerly winds that could explain micro-climate outliers such as Lochinewe.
LikeLike
Jaime,
Yep, that’s it basically.
Incidentally, there is this report from Sky News that does at least mention the foehn effect. However, once again it is mentioned only after having made the point that warmer temperatures had been introduced from Africa. Hence, the foehn effect was only ‘Part of the reason for the spike’.
NO, NO, NO! If it is the spike that you are interested in, then the foehn effect is entirely responsible.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-records-its-warmest-ever-january-temperature-13058549
LikeLiked by 1 person
Indeed I can, but Calgary lies east of a near unbroken range of high mountains – the Front Ranges of the Rockies – so the entire southern Alberta plains up to a hundred miles east of the mountains experienced warming chinook winds. Edmonton lay further east from the mountains so did not experience the warming events. Its Canadian football team was appropriately named the Eskimos.
LikeLike
John, I’m trying to find some answers on this. It’s bugging me I must say. There is no suggestion that ambient air temperatures across Scotland were at a record high or that a brisk southerly airflow originating from Africa was especially unusual. So why did these not unprecedented weather conditions result in record Foehn Effect enhanced temperatures?
LikeLike
Jaime,
This is where I have to admit to being way out of my depth. Intuitively I feel that these geographically determined atmospheric effects are somewhat sensitive to a number of relevant variables, and within that sensitivity lies the capacity to break records even when certain of the variables, e.g. ambient temperatures, are not particularly extreme. Just how much adiabatic warming takes place on the leeward side depends, amongst other things, on how much moisture was lost on the windward ascent and whether the dew point was reached. So we may be dealing with a finely tuned balance between humidity, wind speed and the wind direction with respect to local terrain to determine the outcome. Maybe that is what we saw in Lochinewe yesterday. I honestly don’t know.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Interesting coincidence this happening during the Mann vs. Steyn trial:
LikeLike
Oh well, at least the BBC is putting the blame for the fire where it lies, unlike Sky. Ironically, and sadly, we can expect more of these fires, as pylons and electric wires spread to facilitate net zero.
LikeLike
Credit where it’s due, the Guardian/Observer reported it with a straight bat:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/28/scottish-village-may-have-set-record-for-warmest-january-weather-hitting-196c
LikeLike
Now we need to start the discussion all over again!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Does anybody remember the latent heat of vaporiszation of water , when water changes state it absorbs energy and releases energy returning to the original state. We have had a lot of misty patches appearing on the hills and woods and then disappearing later in the day so requiring an absorption of energy to appear from the damp ground and a release of energy maybe onto say a nearby thermometer ????
LikeLike
Around 530 cals per gram IIRC, James.
LikeLike
Mark,
Yes and no. It’s still the foehn effect but in a different location. As I conceded in discussion with Alan, mountains are widespread in Scotland and so, under the right conditions, similar conditions will be repeated in multiple locations.
LikeLike
Well, I hope the few residents of Achfary made the most of it – within a week they are forecast to have high temperatures of 3-4C and lots of sleet.
LikeLike
A couple of naive questions:-
What equipment measures temperatures to an accuracy of 0.1 degC. ? And how is maintained within calibration?
Regards, John.
LikeLike
According to the Met Office website:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations
the weather station at Kinlochewe is automatic while that at Achfary is manual. My paltry efforts have been unable to ascertain anything about where they are sited, and the extent to which (if at all) they satisfy WMO criteria with regard to such things.
LikeLike
Change of country, but same old same old – whatever the weather, it’s climate change. First, from Nov 2021:
“India’s apple farmers count cost of climate crisis as snow decimates crops
Kashmiri farmers lose half their harvest to early snows for third year, with fears for future of the region’s orchards”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/nov/24/india-kashmiri-apple-farmers-climate-crisis-snow-decimates-crops
Heavy early snow = climate change. Two years later, no snow = climate change:
“Kashmir’s ski resort waits for visitors after just one day of snow this winter
As tourists cancel trips to Gulmarg amid an unprecedentedly warm season, thousands of Kashmiris who rely on snowfall face ruin”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/25/kashmir-ski-resort-gulmarg-india-waits-for-visitors-after-one-day-of-snow-this-winter
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – thanks for the Guardian flip/flop links, liked this bit at the end of latest –
“However, Billa Majeed Bakshi, who operates Kashmir Heli Ski, which flies professional – mainly foreign – skiers to high-altitude slopes, remains optimistic. “This is still the beginning of the winter,” he says. We still have two more months, we can even ski till the end of April because at high altitudes snow will be good and powdery.
This is nature and we cannot fight nature,” he adds. “We cannot lose hope and courage.”
smartest comment in the article.
LikeLike
An interesting comment at Paul Homewood’s place:
“A bit more interesting information. There is an “enthusiasts” weather station described by the Met Office themselves as
“Located in an open field at Achfary clear of buildings and trees. Approximately 500 metres from the Met Office Stevenson screen and rain gauge at Achfary.”
This site only recorded 18.8°C which is a hell of a lot different to 19.9°C just a short distance away. Hmmm, I really doubt all of these readings as representing anything other than some freak occurrence being it natural of anthropogenic..”
LikeLike
Mark, regarding the temperature readings at Kinlochewe and Achfary, Kinlochewe is probably far more reliable:
Even at Kinlochewe though, the data only goes back as far as 1953 and it is entirely conceivable that the ‘record’ of 19.3C was matched or exceeded at this location before that. Also, as Harry points out, these winter extremes in mountainous areas are quite common due to localised Foehn effects. High temperature records set in low lying areas minus any Foehn effect are more significant.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Coming home after a very wet and cold weekend in Oban this morning. The A85 from Oban to Loch Earn goes through some of the most fantastic mountain areas, this morning they were completely white, the temp reading in the car ranged from 3 – 6 c depending on how high we were, the rain changing to sleet with it. Got to Stirling about 12.30 sun shining temp only 8c . NALOPKT article What heatwave on the 13/14th certainly did not arrive in the West of Scotland the map image of red should be BLUE with a temp difference of -18c with the forecast predicting up to 21c.
LikeLike
James S,
Yes, listening the other day to the BBC weather forecaster talking about the heatwave felt like gaslighting. It’s been cold here in Cumbria all year so far apart from a couple of pleasantly mild days, and today has been very cold indeed.
LikeLike
It seems that it isn’t just in the UK that the climate crisis(sic) will be blamed, whatever the weather. I am wary about making points that involve personal tragedy; nevertheless, the Guardian is now blaming Brazilian flooding on climate change:
“Brazil is reeling from catastrophic floods. What went wrong – and what does the future hold?”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/may/10/brazil-is-reeling-from-catastrophic-floods-what-went-wrong-and-what-does-the-future-hold
It’s not so long ago that droughts in Brazil (including in the south, the area affected by recent flooding) were being blamed on climate change, with the suggestion that their frequency would increase:
“Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019”
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/11/642
LikeLiked by 1 person
BBC weather at it again ! Oban forecast 21c actual 15c, the webcam in the harbour is also showing 15c. Ullapool forecast 22c , actual 14 – 17c depending if the sun is out. Tonight’s recap on news at 10 will be full of overstated highs. FFS it’s still May.
LikeLike
“Climate disruption to UK seasons causes problems for migratory birds
Early springs mean food for young of arrivals from west Africa has already disappeared; this year they face the opposite problem”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/16/climate-disruption-to-uk-seasons-causes-problems-for-migratory-birds
Migratory birds, especially those long-distance travellers that winter in sub-Saharan Africa, are struggling with the effects of climate change. Specifically, the trend towards earlier springs is causing problems, because when they arrive at their usual time – between mid-April and early May – nature’s calendar has shifted forwards and spring is almost over.
This is a particular problem for three species that travel from west Africa to breed in British oakwoods: the wood warbler, the redstart and the pied flycatcher. This trio feed their young on oak moth caterpillars, but when spring comes early these have already emerged and are beginning to pupate, so the chicks starve.
This year, however, the birds have faced the opposite problem. Spring 2024 has been so wet and cool that many of the birds have not yet reached the combes and valleys of western Britain. Those that have arrived are having to search for food in unseasonably chilly weather before they can even think about nesting.
This is the sinister paradox of the climate crisis. It does not just affect nature through long-term shifts in weather patterns, but also causes unpredictability, so that one spring may be hot and dry and the next one cold and wet.
Humans may complain about this but we can at least take steps to cope. Spare a thought for the birds and other wild creatures that have no defence against this capricious and unrelenting change.
They just can’t lose, can they? After years of telling us that springs were getting hotter and drier and arriving earlier, when spring is colder and wetter and arrives later, it doesn’t change anything. Whatever the weather does, it’s climate change, apparently.
LikeLiked by 2 people
“Climate change made UK’s waterlogged winter worse”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp992nxxe7do
Climate change is a major reason the UK suffered such a waterlogged winter, scientists have confirmed.
It was the country’s second wettest October to March period on record and a disaster for farmers, who faced flooded fields during a key planting period.
Global warming due to humans burning fossil fuels made this level of rainfall at least four times more likely, according to the World Weather Attribution group….
…“There are some farms in the valley that will not see a harvest at all this year. That hasn’t happened here since 1948,” he says….
...Meanwhile, the amount of rainfall on the stormiest days increased by about 20% on average, due to climate change….
If it hasn’t happened since 1948, does that mean that it also happened in 1948? Sadly the report is ambiguous. But if it’s a once in 76 years event, that suggests randomness to me, especially if it did happen in 1948 too. How do they explain 1948 (assuming it also happened then)?
LikeLike
You can always count on the Guardian to up the ante. Was the wet winter 4 times more likely or 10 times more likely?
“‘Never-ending’ UK rain made 10 times more likely by climate crisis, study says
Winter downpours also made 20% wetter and will occur every three years without urgent carbon cuts, experts warn”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/22/never-ending-uk-rain-10-times-more-likely-climate-crisis-study
The seemingly “never-ending” rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found.
More than a dozen storms battered the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The downpour led to severe floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and heavy losses of crops and livestock.
The level of rain caused by the storms would have occurred just once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years owing to 1.2C of global heating reached in recent years. If fossil fuel burning is not rapidly cut and the global temperature reaches 2C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed.…
The BBC says 4 times, the Guardian says 10 times. It reminds me of the lyric in the Dire Straits song – “Two men say they’re Jesus. One of them must be wrong” So one of the claims must be wrong – they can’t both be right. Then again, they might both be wrong. The science, it seems, isn’t settled.
LikeLike
Mark,
As usual, it’s total BS from the BBC and Guardian, both paid to propagate a false narrative. Even if the models suggested that the storms which did arrive were overall wetter on average than storms which supposedly affected these shore 170 years ago, before the climate crisis (BCC), the models also suggest that the storm severity index (SSI) should be decreasing with climate change, not increasing! Also, just as importantly, the authors admit that the reason we were impacted by so many low pressure cyclonic systems is because of the position of the jet stream, which, despite the efforts of climate alarmists to claim otherwise, cannot be linked to global warming.
The storminess of the 2023-24 season has been primarily dictated by the position and strength of the jet stream, a band of strong westerly winds high up in the atmosphere driven by temperature differences between the equator and the poles, and tends to be strongest in winter. The position and strength of the jet stream influences how many low-pressure systems are directed towards Ireland and the UK. The strength of the jet stream, and how each individual low-pressure system interacts with it, determines whether these low-pressure systems intensify enough to become Atlantic storms. During the 2023-24 season, the jet stream was stronger than normal, which likely contributed to how strong the storms became. Impacts of individual storms can be worsened when the soils are already very wet due to preceding sustained rainfall or a succession of storms over a similar area, leading to saturation, increased run-off and risk of flooding.
The storm severity index (SSI) was used to define stormy days to study. The SSI considers both the strength of the wind and the area affected. In this analysis we looked at rainfall and wind speed on stormy days identified by the SSI.
Looking at average SSI on storm days, while some studies using other methods suggest an increase in storminess in a future climate, our analysis has shown a decreasing trend. Our results show that average SSI indices as observed this year became about a factor of 2 less likely. The synthesis of the models also shows a negative trend and, when combined with observations, the results indicate that a stormy season as observed this year is nowadays a factor of about 1.4 less likely due to human induced climate change.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Has spring weather really been that bad?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cz44911j2d4o
Mean temperatures in March were 6.7C, which was the 11th warmest in 141 years, and 1C above average.
The respective stats for April were 8.3C, the 22nd warmest and 0.4C above the average.
It’s clear that May has also been a very mild month with individual weather stations reporting above average temperatures of between 1C in southern England to as much as 4C in parts of Scotland.Once the May data is available it will significantly boost these spring temperature figures.
All I can say is that where I live must be an outlier. March and April felt colder than usual, with the log burner in regular use until the end of April. May has been cool, with our outside garden and chairs used only twice. Despite the evidence of my own eyes, this cool and indifferent weather is apparently due to climate change:
Climate change means that monthly temperatures are more likely to be above average than below.
That has been the case for the three months of spring 2024.
It also plays a role in bringing heavier rain. Warmer air can evaporate more water from the oceans, and for every 1C rise in temperature we get 7% more moisture in the atmosphere.
This spring has been far wetter than average, so here too we are probably looking at the finger prints of climate change.
LikeLike
“Brrr-itish summer: why is it so cold and when will it get warmer?”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/14/brrr-itish-summer-why-is-it-so-cold-when-will-it-get-warmer
The below-average temperatures and rain may feel more miserable because we’ve come to see heatwaves as the norm
Brilliant!
LikeLiked by 3 people
I wish someone would tell my heating system about global warming!
And is the reason it is coming on in mid June to do with the fact that it has become used to heatwaves and so thinks it is colder than it is? Can a heating system develop a cognitive bias?
LikeLiked by 1 person
D’know John but my heating system is loved even more than usual this month.
LikeLike
Mark,
This is a blatant lie. The mean CET updated to the 13th of June is now 11.9C, with an anomaly of -2.2. This means that for nearly half the month now, it has been on a par with the 5th coldest June since 1659! It has been a phenomenally cold start to June, really very exceptional. Just let them try to claim at the month’s end that it has been the hottest ever! Even claims of ‘warmer than average’ are looking highly unlikely once the whole month is done. The gaslighting and propaganda are becoming outrageous.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt
LikeLiked by 2 people
According to the jet stream forecast it’s going to remain rather unsettled throughout most of June, with cold polar air predominating. Only for the last 3 or 4 days is there any sign of more settled weather and possibly above average temperatures. If I had to guess I would say it will probably fall within the top 50 coldest Junes in Central England since 1659. Not as cold as 1972, 1977 or 1991, but still pretty disappointing for the Era of Global Boiling!
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream
LikeLiked by 3 people
Hunga Tonga.
LikeLike
Hunga Tonga: is this the new skeptics’ greeting call? We need another for when we disagree.
LikeLike
“Soup sales up and sun cream down in wet June”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce44dwe1qpvo
Needless to say, it’s climate change…:
…Climate change means that extreme weather conditions are more likely, though scientists say it is difficult to pin any particular weather pattern on the warming climate….
LikeLiked by 3 people
The thing that annoys me is that climate scientists must be making a killing on the financial markets as they know ahead of time about these variations in demand.
LikeLiked by 2 people
From that BBC article by Mitchell Labiak – Business reporter –
I notice that the quote “Climate change means that extreme weather conditions are more likely, though scientists say it is difficult to pin any particular weather pattern on the warming climate.”
appears about halve way & has no real relevance to the rest of the article, they just have to get a “warming climate” link pasted into everything they can.
ps – on BBC news today, they were reporting on the heatwaves worldwide, just to balance a crappy June in the UK & had a Climate Scientist (can’t recall her name) on.
Found this – Extreme heat around the world – BBC Weather
LikeLike
Jaime (on 14th June ), well they haven’t claimed June was the hottest ever, but it seems they’re making a determined effort to persuade us it was better than we think:
“Junuary’ Was Actually Very Sunny, Says Met Office”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/07/02/junuary-was-actually-very-sunny-says-met-office/
Chilly ‘Junuary’ in fact had more sunshine than average for the time of year, the Met Office has claimed. The Telegraph has more.
June was marked by its relatively cool start, with temperatures 2°C below average for the time of year during its first two weeks. But sunshine hours were up 12% in England and 4% for the U.K. compared with the average June.
Despite the cooler start to the month, heatwave temperatures in the last two weeks pushed overall June temperatures up to only 0.4°C below the long-term average.
Temperatures in the first two weeks of June were below average because of cold Arctic air being blown across the U.K. by northerly winds, a Met Office spokesperson said.
Could there be anything unreliable about the latest surprising claims? The Telegraph suggests there might be:
The Met Office measures sunshine using either the Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder, invented in the 19th century, or modern sunshine sensors.
The Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder, which is being phased out, uses a glass sphere to focus the sun’s direct radiation on a graduated card. The Met Office says the method can significantly overestimate sunshine duration on cloudy days. Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders are still in use at many of the 140 manual climate stations [out of around 400 total stations] it operates.
It comes after controversy last month when the Met Office claimed damp and chilly May was the “warmest on record”.
Who are you going to believe, the Met Office or your own lying eyes?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Mark, on this occasion I think the Met office has fairly accurately described the weather in June. Sunshine was only slightly above average for the UK as a whole:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/actualmonthly/6/Sunshine/UK.gif
The first two weeks were way below average temperature (ref. 1990-2010) and it was only the brief showing of proper summer weather during the last half of the month (but not the final few days) which pushed up the average, not even enough though for the Met Office to claim that June turned out to be of average warmth, which they haven’t done, thankfully. In Central England, June was supposedly 0.1C cooler than May.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
I can’t believe this quite frankly. June was cool yes, but even so we used the wood burner a lot less frequently than we did in the truly awful month of May.
July has got off to an equally abysmal and cool start (currently 2.6C below normal in central England!) and there is no prospect of a return to summer in the near future. I think they’ve already overdone it with the windmills and solar panels to be honest; we certainly don’t need more, otherwise at this rate, the UK is going to be Baltic year round!
LikeLiked by 2 people
“Where has summer gone?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/ce93lqqev9lo
No mention of climate change, of course. After all, it wasn’t supposed to be like this. They still can’t help themselves either – note the two maps, one for late June with the whole of the UK (except Shetland) & Ireland covered in purple, with a big 30, suggesting that in late June we were all roasting under 30C temperatures (we certainly weren’t); the other for now, with the country covered by a blue blob and a big 17, presumably to tell us that it’s cooler than usual, with us all enduring a miserly 17C. That’s also not true. I would willingly endure the dizzy warm heights of 17C right now.
LikeLiked by 2 people
It’s 19C here – in my living room with the wood-burner lit.
LikeLike
The Met Office report on 2023 has now been published, and the BBC is excited about it:
“UK getting more hot and more wet days – Met Office”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c147v82gxp2o
I loved this bit – thank you Justin Rowlatt for giving us all a laugh:
...The report finds the UK is also seeing a 40% increase in the number of what the Met Office describes as “pleasant” days – those with temperatures of 20C or more – and has become 9% sunnier over the last few decades.
Those changes may sound positive, but the UK’s shifting climate represents a dangerous upheaval for our ecosystems as well as our infrastructure....
Ross Clark in the Spectator has a different take on it all from dear Justin:
“Are we really experiencing more ‘extreme’ weather?”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-we-really-experiencing-more-extreme-weather/
The Met Office Report can be read here:
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8553
It gets off to a good start:
Corrections to State of UK Climate 2022
The executive summary and main text in the report stated: ‘The most recent decade 2013–2022 has had 4%/7% fewer days of air and ground frost per year compared with 1991–2020 and 15%/23% fewer than1961–1990’. These were incorrectly reported as per-centages instead of actual days. The corrected sentence is ‘the most recent decade 2013–2022 has had4/7 fewer days of air and ground frost per year com-pared with 1991–2020 and 15/23 fewer than1961–1990’.The main text stated ‘… representing substantial changes in the UK’s climate with the number of ground frosts across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland decreasing by a quarter or more (Figure 21)’. The corrected text is ‘… representing substantial changes in the UK’s climate with the number of air and ground frosts decreasing by around 2 and 3 weeks, respectively(Figure 21)’.The correct percentage values (not reported) were 7%/7% and 23%/20%. Figure 21 and caption were correct as presented and the main report conclusions are unaffected.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark,
Oh, what a tangled web they weave! Essentially, what is being said is that warmer temperatures . . . . . cause hotter days, months and years! Because warmer temperatures are, per se, assumed to be ‘climate change’ then ‘climate change’, per se, must be causing the changing extremes in our weather – principally heat extremes, but they hint at changing rainfall too (but the geographical pattern of changing rainfall does NOT resemble the pattern of changing warmth!). That’s a pretty flimsy basis on which to declare that a man-made ‘climate crisis’ is dangerously affecting our weather, so they cite three extreme heat attribution studies just to make it seem a bit more ‘scientific’.
The report itself is a long and detailed analysis of the actual weather and meteorological events observed in 2023, which I don’t have a problem with. It’s this attribution nonsense I do have a big problem with, as we all should. In order to unpick it though, one has to read through the report and read through the three ‘attribution’ studies, which is a serious (and most likely very tedious) undertaking which even competent journalists (like Ross Clark) are probably not going to attempt. I might have a go if I can find the time and inclination, but this is how they get away with their BS, which of course the BBC and the Guardian are very happy to amplify to the unsuspecting public.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Where have the golden days of my youth gone? I remember rare hot summer days that were much cherished. Winters were definitely colder with pea-soupers, so there is definite evidence, in my mind, for climate change. But those changes were welcomed. Where has this fear of warmer conditions, coming out of the Little Ice Age, come from? Coupled with a fear of a life-giving gas it doesn’t make much sense, yet this mantra grows in strength. I have more or less given up fighting and have become more a watcher, but a perplexed one ☝️
LikeLiked by 2 people
Jaime,
Essentially, what is being said is that warmer temperatures . . . . . cause hotter days, months and years!
Yes, I know, it’s truly mind-boggling. I remember when this particular scientific breakthrough was made. My life has never been the same since:
https://cliscep.com/2021/08/03/hold-the-front-page/
I also remember when the guardian wrote a puff piece about Professor Otto and let it slip that a ‘vanishingly small’ number of scientists were active in producing these attribution studies. So much for “all the world’s scientists agree”. And don’t even get me started on the almighty bun fights behind the scenes that no one wants us to know about:
https://cliscep.com/2019/06/13/when-philosophers-attack/
LikeLiked by 1 person
Alan,
I have more or less given up fighting and have become more a watcher, but a perplexed one.
Make that two of us. and the same is true for just about every aspect of modern life.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Jaime,
And another thing:
You quote from the Met Office where they say ‘All of these studies found…’ That, of course, is supposed to make the results seem all the more convincing. It’s an allusion to Condorcet’s Jury Theorem. You take an ensemble of models, and treat them as a jury in which each member is an above averagely informed voter. In such circumstances you can assume that the ensemble’s evaluation will be nearer the truth than any individual model’s. And if you perform a number of such studies, their agreement can be taken as further confirmation that you have converged on a truth. Professor Tim Palmer was quite explicit about this in his book The Primacy of Doubt, where he says that model ensembles are the modelling equivalent of the wisdom of crowds. But as with people, so with models. The principle only works when the voting is independent. Which would mean that the models in the ensemble could not be allowed to share a common heritage, common components, or be based on common principles. I keep coming back to this: You can’t play the measurement theory game when dealing with epistemic uncertainties. To say that all the studies found the same thing doesn’t actually tell me anything about the reliability of the result. Is it a sign of epistemic validity or just the result of groupthink within that ‘vanishingly small’ modelling community? I’ll be damned if I know.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Just to further illustrate what I was saying above. In really safety critical systems it is often the case that a voting system is employed such that more than one computer system is used to make a safety-related decision. If there is any disagreement between the computers, then the majority decision is followed. However, this only works when the computer systems are truly independently developed. By that I mean a different team, using a different computer language, supported on different hardware running a different operating system, all developed to a different design, tested against an independently developed test regime run by a different test team, and all signed off by a different QA team. Anything short of that, then don’t bother.
Any sign of that level of integrity within climate modelling? Nope.
LikeLiked by 1 person
John,
It’s this Generalized Extreme Value normal distribution nonsense which really gets to me. Yes, of course the tail ends of a normal distribution will increase as the mean shifts to the right (‘climate change’). This implies that as the mean temperature increases, extreme temperatures become more likely and can actually exceed the shift in the mean for a normal distribution. This is basic statistics, it’s not ‘climate change’. You have to assume that the increase in the local mean temperature is due to ‘climate change’ in order to attribute record high temperatures to ‘climate change’ using GEV alone!
But even this is not always sufficient. The NW Pacific heatwave for example was so intense it was outside even what would be expected from the GEV shift in extreme tail end temperatures. Model simulations also failed to account for the observed extreme high temperatures. But did this stop Otto et al from attributing the heatwave to ‘climate change’? Of course not! The Met Office extreme weather attributions (Christidis et al) look to be even more suspect than Otto’s, if that’s actually possible.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Exactly John, exactly. If the ‘voters’ are using the same dodgy statistical analyses and iffy models to come to their decisions, then those voters are not independent and the election result is not the ‘wisdom of crowds’.
LikeLike
Jaime,
Model simulations also failed to account for the observed extreme high temperatures.
That’s because they assumed only 100% of the warming was anthropogenic. 🙂
LikeLiked by 2 people
Mark – love that Spectator article header cartoon 🙂
LikeLike
“Will wet summers continue in NI?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g387x3gy8o
It’s been a disappointing summer so far, often cool with few completely dry days and a lack of sunshine, not to mention unseasonably windy conditions at times...
…Climate change does not mean a Mediterranean type of weather will shift northwards.…
Which is interesting, given that this isn’t what the BBC used to tell us:
“Climate may turn UK Mediterranean”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4091068.stm
Huge swathes of England could take on a Mediterranean look within 50 years as native woodlands are threatened by warmer, drier summers, say scientists.
Olive groves, vines and sunflower fields could become hallmarks of the landscape in South-East England as global warming changes conditions.
Experts also say the English country garden is unlikely to survive in the South East in its present form.
Rolling lawns and herbaceous borders may be ousted by palms and eucalyptus….
...Scientists, at a two-day climate change conference at the University of Surrey in Guildford, conjured a picture more reminiscent of the South of France than the South Downs as they looked at the implications of global warming for Britain’s native trees.
The Mediterranean climate of southern France will not be exactly replicated in England, since levels of sunlight here are lower, they said.
But experts predict many trees native to southern France will become much more common further north.
These include walnut, poplar, sweet chestnut, plums, kiwi fruits and vines.
Corsican pine was predicted to become the forester’s tree of choice.…
Looks like a job for BBC Verify to me.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Mark,
Just waiting for the following headline by the BBC or Guardian:
Climate Change Will Make British Summers Even MORE Like Typical British Summers
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – you have to chuckle at that article by Cecilia Daly BBC News NI weather presenter.
She spouts the usual panic – “If you break down the figures further into individual counties it appears that traditionally drier parts of Northern Ireland, such as Counties Armagh and Down, have been notably wetter, and with infrastructure built for a climate 30 years ago, less able to cope with extreme rainfall events.”
Then – “Are we adapting?
Samuel Glover from County Down has been farming for over 40 years and is a keen weather watcher. He said farming practices have changed, it is less manual now and more machinery is used. But he said there will always be good seasons and bad seasons. “One has to take advantage of the good weather when it’s available,” Mr Glover said.
“This year has got off to a very wet start but most have caught up, though arable farmers will be well behind when it comes to harvesting.” Mr Glover believes there will be changes over the next few years, some for the better and some for the worse.”
At least she draws on the 30yr UK Met Office data.
And to be fair, the med climate link from 2005 was – “By 2050 summer temperatures in the South-East of England are expected to be 1.5 to 3C warmer than they are now.”
With the UHI effect on London & Other sites down there, probably plausible.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Are we breaking the Atlantic Ocean? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, explained. – Vox
“Are we breaking the Atlantic Ocean? The climate change scenario that could chill parts of the world, explained.”
LikeLike
dfhunter,
The pushing south of the warm Atlantic currents/Gulf Stream has always struck me as one of the more plausible and worrying possible consequences of global warming. After all, we here in the UK enjoy an unusually mild and beneficial climate thanks to the Gulf Stream,. compared to most places so far north. I am much more worried about the possibility of falling temperatures than I am of rising ones.
LikeLike
Mark – agree.
From the article end –
“Those future potential ocean temperature changes weren’t factored into the current model — though Van Westen says he and colleagues are working on one that does.
There are some consequences of climate change that are certain. Temperatures will rise, and ice will melt. Sea level will rise. Weather patterns will shift. But some of climate change’s most impactful consequences are still deeply unclear. It’s scary: There’s a non-zero chance of this happening, and we might not know it is until it’s too late.
“We need to rule out such a potential future scenario,” Van Westen says. “And therefore, very urgent climate action is needed to limit our impact on Earth.”
So not settled/still deeply unclear, but still – “very urgent climate action is needed to limit our impact on Earth”
LikeLike
Hmm. Feels like gaslighting to me. Where I live this year has been cool and wet, remorselessly so. I accept that overnight temperatures in the winter and spring may have been higher than usual, thus increasing the mean temperature, but daytime temperatures have definitely been low, especially through the spring and summer. There’s a heck of a lot of spin and cherry-picking in this piece:
“How climate crisis made this UK summer feel like a letdown
July was warmer than 1961-1990 average and the 34.8C peak this month was very hot, but perceptions have changed”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/aug/22/how-climate-crisis-made-this-uk-summer-feel-like-a-letdown-weatherwatch
There has been a widespread feeling that this summer was a big letdown, unusually cool and even cold at times. But was it really so bad? There were some hot spells, and on 12 August temperatures peaked at 34.8C in Cambridge, which was remarkably hot.
British summers in the 1950s, 60s, 70s and 80s were far more likely to be thoroughly cool. And even the historic long hot summer of 1976 had only one occasion when 34.8C was exceeded, with a high of 35.9C on 3 July in Cheltenham, which set a new record at the time for the UK’s highest temperature.
The difference now is that extreme heat is taken for granted, highlighted by the UK’s latest record highest temperature of 40.3C on 19 July 2022. Cool spells have become more unusual, and although this July was largely written off as disappointing, it was actually warmer than the average July temperatures over the decades from 1961 to 1990.
What has changed is our perceptions as hot summers have become normalised with the growing impact of the climate crisis.
Why select 1961 to 1990? We all know that it was cooler from about 1950 to about 1980 than in the decades that preceded those years. We all know that 1976 wasn’t just a long hot summer, it was hot all over the UK. This year has seen warmth (other than the odd day here and there) only in the south of England. Where I live temperatures have never got anywhere near 30C, and I can count on the fingers of one hand how often they exceeded 25C. Why focus on July only? Because June was lousy and August (certainly in Cumbria) has been similarly poor.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Mark,
That is Olympic Opening Ceremony gaslighting! Unbelievable. One high temperature measurement registered by an iffy thermometer and site in Cambridge, with the rest of the month being more generally cool, wet, windy and miserable, is evidence of a man-made ‘climate crisis’!
I was kept awake last night by 60mph winds and rain – in August! I’ve also had the log burner going for a while – in August! The ground around here is sodden and river levels are more typical of winter – in August! If this wet weather continues into autumn, there will be very serious flooding, no doubt about it.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I must remember to tell my 91 year old mother that she’s imagining being cold. I wonder why she has had her central heating on all “summer”?
The annoying thing about the Guardian article is that a lousy UK summer is just weather. If the claims of a climate crisis based on increasing heat have merit, a poor UK summer wouldn’t undermine them. I get that. What I don’t accept is being told that the summer has been warm when it hasn’t. That really is gaslighting.
LikeLiked by 2 people
If it goes on like this, we’ll need a Summer Fuel payment – which Labour can then cancel for 10 million pensioners.
LikeLiked by 1 person
From dfhunter’s article quote above:
“Temperatures will rise, and ice will melt. Sea level will rise. Weather patterns will shift.”
Whenever I see statements like this they make me wonder – simplistically – if we are being sold a “magic bullet” story. A given amount of extra heat could melt some ice but, if it did, that same heat is no longer available to do anything else. It could not then go on to raise temperatures, shift weather patterns or cause any of the multitude of other woeful outcomes.
Years ago there was a post on WUWT where the author had calculated that, if sufficient heat could somehow be drawn from the atmosphere to melt the Greenland icecap (in a shortish timeframe iirc), it would lower global temperatures by about 6 degrees and cause a new ice age. That stuck in my mind.
So the dumb question is: do the model-based projections double-count (or multiple-count) the effects of some warming? Taking the ice-melt example, do they allow for the cooling effect on the local atmosphere from the heat loss and on the adjoining ocean from the increased run-off of near-zero cold water?
LikeLiked by 1 person
MikeH – not a dumb question, to me anyway.
“Tipping points” & “albedo” are always brought up in this by climate scientists.
As for the “model-based projections”, since they are the driving force in predicting/forecasting this need for the world to transition from fossil power, I find the lack of a good documentary on “climate models” to convince the public strange.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“‘Heat engine’ fuelled by climate crisis bringing blast of summer weather to Australian winter
August temperature records under threat as Oodnadatta in South Australia braces for 38C and BoM forecasts above 30C in Brisbane next week”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/23/australia-weather-forecast-august-heat-records-bom-adelaide-brisbane-sydney-melbourne
Australia is on track to face its hottest August on record as a global heating-fuelled “heat engine” brings spring and summer warmth to Australia’s winter, experts forecast.
A Weatherzone meteorologist, Ben Domensino, said the unseasonably warm weather was coming from a “heat engine” in Australia’s red centre, where clear skies in the coming week would drive maximum temperatures towards 40C, more than 10C above average, in northern South Australia, the southern Northern Territory and western New South Wales.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting 2024’s winter to be the nation’s fifth-warmest yet, with multiple locations threatening to break temperature records for August….
I notice they don’t mention Tasmania. My Australian cousin has lived there for many years, and he tells me this is the coldest winter he can remember since he moved to Tasmania, with temperatures way below zero on a regular basis.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – am I thick, or does these quotes –
“The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting 2024’s winter to be the nation’s fifth-warmest yet, with multiple locations threatening to break temperature records for August“
& “modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology predicted that Monday would be a new all-time August record with a top of 28C. However, a spokesperson for the bureau said this would be revised later to forecast another 25C day.”
make any sense? Beth?
LikeLike
dfhunter, it’s all hype. As so often, it’s not reporting on what has happened, but speculating about what might happen. If the records don’t follow, it doesn’t matter – the headline is up there, and it’s what people will remember. The article closes at is started and continued, with a “would probably” rather than “has occurred”:
But those potential spring thunderstorms and lower temperatures would probably clear up to deliver a warm September as the hot air mass lingered over Australia’s centre, Domensino said.
LikeLike
Now it’s Japan’s turn:
“Visits to Japan’s only Shinto weather shrine surge as climate crisis bites”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/23/japan-kisho-jinja-weather-shinto-shrine-tokyo
…The climate crisis has battered Japan with record high temperatures, increased risk of landslides and flooding, and more powerful tropical cyclones. …
Hmmm….
The 1938 Hanshin flood was caused by heavy rains, which resulted in landslides and floods in the Mount Rokkō area, Hyōgo Prefecture in Japan in July 1938. According to the official government report, torrential rains resulted in flash floods and debris flows that affected the Mount Rokko area, including Kobe and Nishinomiya. At least 715 people lost their lives. The floods feature in Junichirō Tanizaki‘s novel The Makioka Sisters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Hanshin_flood
Japan is a country with a long history of flood disasters. The first recorded flood disaster in Japan was in the mid 6th century, while the Isewan Typhoon in 1959 was responsible for the greatest flood damage in modern Japanese history. In 1896, the Japan River Law was established with the aim of diverting flood waters to the sea as quickly as possible. Then, the emphasis of flood control was given to high water control via straightening river channels and levee construction. During the Showa period (1926–1989), due to the difficulty in securing land for levee enhancement or upgrade, flood control was dominated by the construction of multipurpose dams.
In response to an increase in flood risk caused by rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s, Comprehensive Flood Risk Management Measures (CFRMMs) were developed in 1980 to meet the urgent need of river improvement works and runoff management in watersheds running through rapidly urbanized areas.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/13/5357
We have recovered instrumental temperature and pressure observations from Tokyo covering the periods 1825-1828, 1839-1855, and 1872-1875; from Yokohama covering the periods 1860-1871 and 1874; from Osaka covering the periods 1828-1833 and 1869-1871; and from Kobe covering the periods 1869-1871 and 1875-1888. The newly recovered records contain data before the 1870s, which is a period where, until recently, no instrumental data in Japan were believed to exist. Their addition to the previous backward extension of Japanese series, as based on the recently recovered intermittent Dejima/Nagasaki series 1819-1878, implies that the nineteenth-century extension of the Japanese instrumental record no longer contains major temporal gaps. The recovered data were used for a preliminary calculation of the west-Japan temperature (WJT) series, which is a representative temperature series for the area. The existence of a warm epoch in the 1850s over W-Japan and a downward temperature trend till the early twentieth century, as previously inferred from documentary data, is confirmed from the WJT data. [My emphasis].
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/japan/
LikeLike
The Guardian headline has it right – it’s weather:
“‘We’ve not had a summer’: retailers battle unpredictable British weather”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/06/retailers-sales-unpredictable-british-weather-summer-winter-climate-crisis-seasons
But the sub-headline and the article turn it into “climate crisis”:
Soggy summers and warmer winters are hitting sales as climate crisis blurs seasons
And:
Walker suggested retailers were having to adapt to increasingly erratic weather caused by the climate crisis. “Last summer was a washout and it makes it hard with seasonal plans,” he said. This year “terrible weather” in early summer and erratic conditions in July had made it difficult to predict demand, he added.
And much more in similar vein. It’s funny, though, since I seem to remember the models telling us that summers were going to be hot and dry in the UK, so much so that we all had to fill our gardens with Mediterranean plants that would be able to cope with being parched. It’s a good job I took no notice – I don’t think they’d have survived being relentlessly cold and wet.
LikeLike
The Guardian seems to be running a campaign for weather forecasts to be used to propagandise about climate change:
“Meteorologists could be climate change heroes by relaying its urgency to the public”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/meteorologists-climate-change-hurricane-extreme-weather
and:
“‘You don’t want to waste time on climate change’: TV weather’s big problem with the environmental crisis”
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/oct/25/tv-weather-climate-crisis
This line had me scratching my head:
…Disturbing too was data from the tide gauge at Newlyn in Cornwall showing the sea level was higher in 2023 than any year since 1916….
I would like that to be clarified. Are they saying that the Newlyn tidal gauge records go back only to 1916 and have never shown higher sea levels? Or are they saying that the gauge recorded higher sea levels 108 years ago? Whichever is the correct interpretation of that ambiguous sentence makes quite a difference to the conclusions that might properly be drawn.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark, it’s the highest it’s ever been. If you go to psmsl.org you can select Newlyn and see the record. A link there also takes you to a site where you can see the relative ground motion. [Newlyn is sinking.]
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jit,
Thanks for the clarification, and additional information.
Why do so many journalists seem to find it so difficult to write clearly and unambiguously?
LikeLike
Thinking about it some more, so what if the Newlyn tide gauge shows the highest level ever? First, as Jit points out, the land is sinking there, so it isn’t just down to rising seas. Secondly, sea level has been rising since the end of the Little Ice Age. Unless an accelerating rise in sea level at Newlyn can be demonstrated (and that only after accounting for the fact that Newlyn is sinking), then that piece of information jumped on by the Guardian doesn’t tell us anything about climate change, and certainly doesn’t demonstrate that it’s an accelerating problem. Context is everything, and it’s lacking in that piece.
LikeLiked by 2 people
For sea level RISING and FALLING on centennial timescales (albeit complicated by storm surges) see, for example, Ref. 1 which refers to the Wash.
Reference1. H.H. Lamb, “Climate, History and the Modern World”, pages 165 – 166.
In haste. Regards, John C.
LikeLike
Well worth a read. It contradicts the narrative that weather in the UK is becoming more extreme, by using actual data. My money’s still on the Met Office, Guardian and BBC reviewing the UK’s 2024 weather following the end of the year, and discovering that it’s extreme/worse/problematic, and that it’s down to man-made climate change.
LikeLike
I would like to chip in my tenpenarth if I may. A one hundred thousandth of a Usain Bolt 100 metres world record distance is just one millimetre. So what? Well the Met Office confirmed to me, by email, that they can measure temperature in a private home’s back garden weather station to …….one hundred thoudsandth of a degree. Yes that is to the fifth decimal place of a very small unit.
Clearly a sparrow fart at 10 paces would be enough to record such a tiny variation so the Met Office’s claimed instrumentation accuracy is complete nonsense. In fact is there any thermometer in the world that could be that accurate in the real world atmosphere?…..its readings would be changing continuously. But hey in the grand scheme of things I have found this sort of absurd claim from the Met Office par for the course.
I have now indexed my reviews for anyone to scan though below. If anyone has info, imagery or even requests (I’m no song and dance man though) please either let me know through wordpress OR you can email me (I’m not anonymous) ray.m.sanders1956@gmail.com.
And if anyone wants to forward my letter to Peter Kyle to their own constituency MP please feel free……but don’t try to share it on Facebook ‘cos they will delete it as “misinformation” ho.ho.ho.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Ray,
That would be a case where the actual physical uncertainty of a metric (temperature) is vastly greater (by several orders of magnitude) than the supposed technical accuracy of the measuring device. In such cases, it is meaningless and absurd to quote the metric in terms of the accuracy of the device itself.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It’s well worth popping over and having a look at Ray’s site. Thanks for the links, Ray.
LikeLike
Google DeepMind predicts weather more accurately than leading system
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/dec/04/google-deepmind-predicts-weather-more-accurately-than-leading-system
GenCast, an AI weather program from Google DeepMind, performed up to 20% better than the ENS forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), widely regarded as the world leader
GenCast is based on historical weather patterns rather than physics:
GenCast learned how global weather evolves by training on 40 years of historic data
The link to the Paper published in Nature is here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9
To my simple mind if GenCast provides more accurate forecasts (including extreme events) based on historical weather patterns then climate change can’t be having much of an effect. I read through the Nature paper and climate change is not even mentioned. Must be a first! Nevertheless you’d think the authors would have addressed the relevance of climate change or lack of it even in passing.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Potentilla,
This is interesting:
For a start, this doesn’t include the last 6 years of global warming, and in particular the last 18 months of ‘global boiling’. If GenCast, going forward, continues to make accurate weather predictions based on historical data, and does not get any more accurate when its weather database is updated, then this would be a good test of the climate change-extreme weather link.
LikeLiked by 1 person
potentilla and Jaime,
I have long felt that weather forecasts have become progressively less reliable as they have increasingly depended on computer programs and have tended to ditch the old way of using experience based on previous similar pressure set-ups etc to have a stab at what the weather was going to do. Certainly I have noticed that (FWIW) the 14 day weather forecast on the BBC website is a complete and utter waste of time. Whenever planning a holiday to Scotland or Wales that involves climbing some hills, I start looking at the forecast 14 days out and contemplate what hills might (or might not) be a reasonable bet on given days, in accordance with the forecast. I find that every day on the lead-in to the holiday my plans are changing, because so is the forecast. It isn’t reliable more than a day or two out, and often not even then.
All that is by way of background, however. The main point is that I completely agree that if a forecast based on assessing previous weather patterns is more accurate than the up-to-date methods, then the up-to-date methods have problems, and those problems are possibly because they are factoring in climate change too much. Or, perhaps more accurately, as you both say, it’s simply that the past is a better guide to the future, which it wouldn’t be if the climate is changing so much as we are always being told.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Jaime: I would expect GenCast forecasting to become more accurate with additional data. I am surprised it is so good with only 40 years of historic data some of which was infilled. Contrary to climate activists claims of increasing catastrophic events, as data record lengths increase, more extreme events will be recorded. This additional data should improve the models.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Perhaps they should have got Google DeepMind to predict the impact of Storm Darragh. Instead, we got a deep dive into the heart of extreme weather hype, with the Met Office issuing a ‘rare’ red warning which the government sent to 3 million phone users and clueless Sky News reporters born yesterday apparently exclaiming that they have ‘never seen anything like it’. They haven’t even cleared up the garden furniture yet but I’m sure the MSM will soon be promoting the Storm Darragh-climate change link.
LikeLiked by 1 person
May I just tip this into the mix?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks Ray,
Well worth a read.
LikeLike
“What are the chances of a white Christmas in the UK?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c33dz56x6p8o
But the BBC can’t help themselves:
…Is the chance of a white Christmas dropping as the climate warms?…
Oh dear:
…In southern and eastern England, the likelihood increased by 10% for the period 1991 to 2020 as compared to the previous 30 years…
though reassuringly:
…in the Scottish Highlands the chance of Christmas snow has decreased by 30% in the same period.
Phew!
LikeLike
“NI lost eight days of wintry weather ‘due to climate change'”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrwqyz4kzqo
New analysis of long-term weather data shows that in the last decade Northern Ireland has lost eight days of wintry weather because of man-made climate change.
The research, published by the US based non-profit Climate Central, looked at the number of days in December, January and February when the minimum temperature remained above freezing....
Why no link to the analysis, BBC? However, it’s easy enough to find their website:
https://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do
Climate Central uses science, big data, and technology to generate thousands of local storylines and compelling visuals that make climate change personal and show what can be done about it. We address climate science, sea level rise, extreme weather, energy, and related topics. We collaborate widely with TV meteorologists, journalists, and other respected voices to reach audiences across diverse geographies and beliefs.
Well, their press release certainly did the trick with the cut and paste BBC, who are always keen for any story to push climate change at its audience. Curiously, having said that climate change is adversely affecting barn owls, the article concludes thus:
…Research carried out jointly by Ulster Wildlife and the Met Office showed that high rainfall and low temperatures during critical nesting months negatively affected the survival rate of barn owl chicks.
As winters become wetter due to climate change, these conditions pose an even greater threat to their survival.
Yet the article is mainly about fewer sub-zero days in Northern Ireland, thanks to climate change. It refers to warmer, wetter winters, but only in passing, and provides no link or evidence for the claim. If Northern Ireland barn owl chicks are at risk from both cold and wet, surely fewer sub-zero days is a good, rather than a bad, thing? But of course, climate change has to be a crisis. It can only bring bad news, no good news.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Birds have chicks in the winter now?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark/Jit – from the Barn Owl Trust website – Barn Owls in spring – nesting – The Barn Owl Trust
“When do Barn Owls breed?
Barn Owls can breed in their first year. Although nesting has been recorded in every month of the year, most pairs only lay eggs in spring. Prior to 1990, the UK average ‘first egg date’ was May 9th. Since then it has moved forward to April 17th, almost certainly as a result of climate change.
These are only averages however, and generally there is much annual and regional variation. Eggs in March are now quite frequent so the main breeding season is normally quoted as “March to August” (inclusive). Early laying females are generally those with the best food supply and first-year birds tend to breed a little later than older, more experienced birds.”
The website also has a helpful “Being green” link in the “About Us” tab –
The climate and ecological crisis – The Barn Owl Trust
Won’t bore you with any quotes, but can’t resist showing another hockey stick graph from it.
LikeLike
dfh, thanks – that’s quite a graph! Difficult to take it seriously. And, as Jit points out, however early barn owls lay their eggs, they don’t lay them in winter.
LikeLike
“Warmest Christmas Eve on record in NI”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7m6r0yzxo
Christmas Eve 2024 has become the warmest on record for Northern Ireland.
Temperatures provisionally reached 14.3C at Magilligan on the north coast on Tuesday afternoon.
That surpasses the 13.9C record set in Armagh 82 years ago, in 1942.
The unseasonably mild conditions are striking given that the average temperature for Christmas Eve is normally about 7.5C.
The warmest December day on record was 14.8C, curiously set at the same location. The Met Office has form when it comes to the same stations regularly setting records (such as Hawarden in north Wales, if memory serves, and Kinlochewe in the Scottish highlands, not to mention Heathrow…). It gives me pause for thought. But such thoughts don’t occur to the BBC
Instead (it was inevitable, I suppose) we get this:
...According to Climate Central, a US-based nonprofit group, climate change has made these temperatures at least five times more likely.
Kristina Dahl is the vice president for science at Climate Central.
“The unusually warm temperatures in the UK and Ireland over the Christmas holiday bear the clear fingerprints of climate change and are the latest indication that winters in the region are warming,” she said....
Why are Kristina Dahl and Climate Central suddenly the BBC’s go-to regarding Northern Ireland’s weather? (See my comment on this thread on 17th December).
LikeLike
Whatever the weather, globally, too, the BBC will run with the narrative, especially if spoon-fed by a press release:
“A year of extreme weather that challenged billions”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg8dg3ke40o
Climate change has brought record-breaking heat this year, and with it extreme weather, from hurricanes to month-long droughts.
This year is expected to be the hottest on record, and new research shows that people around the world experienced an additional 41 days of dangerous heat due to climate change.
Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College and Climate Central said the study shows “we are living in a dangerous new era”.
From Brazil to Indonesia we take a look back at the climate events that affected the lives of billions in 2024….
Absurdly, in the hands of the BBC, weather is now to be known as “climate events“.
LikeLiked by 2 people
“UK weather in 2024: Torrential rain, battering storms, and a cool summer”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c1mrz200474o
A textbook example of climate change journalism from the BBC. FOur or five mentions of climate change. THis one probably wins the prize:
…However, after a mild May, many were reaching for jackets just as summer seemed imminent. A blast of cold northerly winds carrying Arctic air brought an unseasonably chilly start to June, with temperatures 2C below average – a reminder that occasional cold spells can still occur, even as our climate continues to warm….
LikeLiked by 1 person
It was inevitable, I suppose, but they must be so disappointed with a 4th place finish (though how the Met Office arrives at that after such a cool year in the UK is a mystery to me). Never mind, the BBC and the Met Office between them find plenty to be alarmed about in a pretty ordinary weather year:
“2024 UK’s fourth warmest year on record”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c1mrz200474o
Despite the UK mostly escaping the extreme heat seen in recent years, 2024 was still hotter than it might have seemed.
According to their latest analysis, the Met Office say it was provisionally the fourth warmest year on record, behind 2022, 2023 and 2014.
All ten of the top warmest years have occurred since the year 2000, with five in the most recent decade 2015-2024….
I love that – 2024 was still hotter than it might have seemed. Don’t believe your lying eyes, believe the Met Office instead. We all know their weather stations are immaculately sited WMO level 1 sites….
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark; others are more knowledgeable on this but, aiui, recent warm years have been due more to mild winters and warmer nights than any sustained high temps. If so, that has to be the most benign form of “climate change” as less cold is a life-saver.
LikeLiked by 1 person
2024 was “hotter than it might have seemed” because basically it was cool, wet and dull for most of the year.
Instead of looking at the mean diurnal temperature, which includes night time minimum and daytime maximum temperatures, let’s look at maximum daytime temperatures shall we, which most of us experience directly, on account of the fact that we are not nocturnal creatures.
Allowing for errors in recording, 1921, 1949, 1958, 2008, 2011, and 2020 were as warm as 2024. 2003, 2014, 2022 and 2023 were significantly warmer – all with reference to mean maximum daytime temperature across all seasons. Because it was so very dull in 2024, because the entire year was afflicted by clouds, night time temperatures held up and that’s why 2024 was ‘hotter’ than it seemed. Here’s the evidence:
UK – Sunshine
Annual
Sunshine hours were well below the 1991-2020 average and it’s been the dullest year of the 21st century so far, reversing a trend of increasing sunshine since 1980. This is the real story of 2024, but neither the Met Office or the BBC will tell it to you, because they are intent on spinning the false narrative of ‘hotter temperatures equals more extreme weather’.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Mike H and Jaime, thank you for the context and detail behind the headline – naturally, it’s lacking from the BBC report.
LikeLiked by 2 people
In the good ‘ Old Days’ if we were not having frost and snow in January we would get the usual January Gales and everybody expected them if we got anything like a mild spell. How Storm Eowyn rates in strength/ferocity against some of the big storms we had in the past I don’t know, but in the 90’s we had damage to the roof, power and telephone lines down, garden fences spread around the countryside etc etc. We shall see what the full force feels like shortly in the next hour or so.
LikeLike
So we are in the middle of the Storm Eowyn, doesn’t seem much worse than a few hours ago ? The met is forecasting 80mph, BBC 70 mph gusts from 40 mph base, only 1 old dead wood wormy pine tree down at the moment. Why do the tv channels insist on showing east coast sea reports when the wind is from the west, Whitehaven is the only sensible view of the rough sea. We are due snow by 4 to 5 this afternoon with the wind dropping to 40 mph , could be blizzard conditions, This has been JamesS reporting from his fireside ☺️
LikeLike
James S, I wouldn’t underplay the storm – it has been pretty severe in many places, though as my wife says (having been brought up on the west Cumbrian coast), she remembers many that were worse in the past. That being the case, this is nothing to do with climate change, but I don’t imagine it’ll take long for the usual suspects to claim that it is.
LikeLike
“We need to stop wetting ourselves about the weather”
Julie Burchill at Spiked – quite funny.
LikeLiked by 2 people
“Weatherwatch: how bitter cold of February 1917 quietened Britain’s birds
Thousands of birds starved during one of the coldest Februarys on record, a stark contrast with recent winters”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2025/feb/20/weatherwatch-how-bitter-cold-of-february-1917-quietened-britains-birds
February often brings the first signs of spring in the bird world, with mild, sunny days producing plenty of birdsong and the start of breeding activity, including nest building for many resident species.
What a contrast with more than a century ago when February 1917 was one of the coldest on record. On Valentine’s Day, as the snow and ice had finally begun to thaw, those birdwatchers not fighting in Flanders met to share their observations.
These included sightings of thousands of small birds that had starved to death, especially blackbirds, fieldfares and redwings. The same happened with waterbirds such as herons and kingfishers, which are especially vulnerable when waterways freeze over. One observer had been told that kingfishers were being captured by hand as they were too weak to fly....
Yet it’s mild winters that are apparently some sort of existential crisis induced by the climate crisis [sic].
LikeLike
“Warm sunshine for UK this weekend but will it last?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cvg1n4p5mr8o
It’s going to be a pleasantly warm weekend (at last – after what feels like a long cool/cold winter), and then next week is set to turn very cold again. The temperatures this weekend are forecast to be higher than usual, though not exceptional, which is also true of the warm day we had on Thursday. The BBC manages to find a “record” even though no national records have been broken. The only miracle is that they didn’t link it to climate change:
…On Thursday it was the warmest day of the year so far in England, Wales and Scotland with 19C recorded in Santon Downham in Suffolk and 18.2C in Aberystwyth, Ceredigion. The Botanical Gardens in Edinburgh reached 16.8C which is the highest on record at this station this early in the year.…
If you look hard enough, I’m sure it won’t be too difficult to show a record at some weather station or other most days. Still, it smacks of desperate stuff, scraping the barrel somewhat.
LikeLiked by 1 person
18 degrees and sunny here this weekend, then dropping ten degrees to only 8C by Tuesday. Must be climate whiplash! Spring is teasing us. Cue ‘Hotter than Malaga/Corfu/Canary Islands etc. [delete as appropriate]’ headlines. Make the most of your two days of wine-growing-Riviera-oop-north climate change folks, before we’re back to ‘just weather’ next week.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jaime, you must be psychic. Here’s the latest offering from the BBC:
“Warmest day of the year so far as UK hotter than Ibiza”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddymq71zq5o
The BBC must be gutted. No records broken – just the hottest day of the year so far (which isn’t really surprising as we leave winter behind and move into spring). Still, it was unusually cool at Ibiza, so they got their headline.
LikeLiked by 2 people
More a case of the media being utterly predictable Mark. Every time it gets a bit warm for the time of year, they scout around the traditional Mediterranean or far flung holiday destinations, looking for a forecast which is a few degrees below the UK in order to claim that ‘Britain is hotter than . . . . . blah, blah, blah,’ giving the impression that global warming is turning the UK into a furnace, plus we really don’t need to take planet destroying flights anymore because we’ve got Mediterranean/subtropical weather right here at home! It’s an idiotic ‘nudge’ but I guess it must work on some people (hopefully an ever shrinking minority).
LikeLiked by 1 person
The day when spring starts is a moving feast. The darkest three months of the year end around 5th/6th February, and in the days before electric light, when people were much more affected by daylight hours than they are now, there was an argument that spring started then. Alternatively, most people, if asked, would probably say that spring starts on 1st March (in the northern hemisphere), and that’s certainly the case according to the meteorological calendar. But with the exception of two or three days around last weekend, March has been very much on the chilly side so far, and that’s no good if you’re interested in propagating the climate crisis mallarkey. And so the BBC plumps for spring starting on the equinox:
“Rising temperatures to bring UK warm start to spring”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rk4pr5m0po
Temperatures could reach 18C in the south of the UK on Thursday, the first day of astronomical spring, as the weather warms after a chillier start to the week.
The peak, expected on the spring equinox, is seven or eight degrees warmer than average in the region for this time of year, according to BBC Weather.…
The rest of the article struggles to maintain that narrative, but never mind, the headline and opening paragraphs do the trick nicely.
LikeLike
Going by the old saying for March ‘ In like a lamb, out like a lion ‘ or vise versa, this March is not really sticking to tradition unless we get a total turn around next week.
LikeLike
I’ll put this here for want of a better place:
“Weatherwatch: climate shifts threaten birds’ return as spring arrives
As birds begin long journey north, climate-driven seasonal changes may leave late arrivals struggling to find food for young”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2025/mar/20/weatherwatch-climate-shifts-threaten-birds-return-as-spring-arrives
…when the birds return to our shores, at the same time as they always have, the seasonal shifts caused by the climate crisis mean that spring is already well under way. As a result, the insects on which they feed their young may already have peaked in numbers.…
Well, that’s certainly not true this year. Apart from three days earlier this month, which were pleasantly warm, and the next two or through days which promise to be the same, March has been cold (if pleasantly dry and sunny, for a nice change). We awoke to a frost this morning for the umpteenth day in a row.
Why write about spring arriving earlier when this year it clearly hasn’t?
LikeLike
Mark,
The Guardian has perfected the art of publishing opportune climate propaganda which exploits convenient real world observations (i.e. one hot month, season or year, extreme weather events) when those observations reinforce the narrative, plus publishing counter climate propaganda to mask inconvenient real world observations which don’t fit the narrative. They are obviously engaged in the latter tactic now.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Spring equinox is UK’s warmest day of year so far”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c5ymzqrn3q0o
Temperatures have climbed above 21C in parts of England meaning Thursday is the UK’s warmest day of the year so far.
According to the Met Office, Northolt in London and Chertsey in Surrey reached 21.3C (70.3F), exceeding the previous high of 19.7C (67.5F) set earlier in March.…
Isn’t that one would expect as leave winter behind and the sun rises higher every day – that on average one might expect to see higher temperatures day on day?
As for this:
Wales has also had its highest temperature of 2025 so far with 20.4C (68.7F) recorded at Gogerddan in Ceredigion – provisionally Wales’ warmest spring equinox on record.
Hurrah, another heat record? Except that it’s stretching things to the limit, isn’t it? Not the warmest day on record in Wales, but the warmest spring equinox on record. With 365 (sometimes 366) days in a year, and four home countries to go at, that’s approximately 1,441 opportunities every year to find a new heat record in the UK. On the law of averages, quite a few will be broken on that basis every year. Add in driest and wettest days to the mix (both also often postulated as being evidence of climate change) and that’s more than 4,300 opportunities every year in the UK alone to shout about a supposedly climate change-related weather record being broken.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Is the UK’s warm spell over for now?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c8e7nw3zg18o
A not unusual warm spell that lasted for perhaps two or three days. Killer paragraph from the BBC (why we can trust them?):
…March is a transition time – from winter to spring – during which we often see big temperature swings depending on the direction of the wind. Although not unusual, the warmer spell we’ve just had has been made more likely due to climate change, external, according to Climate Central.…
The BBC should perhaps have explained who Climate Central are before throwing in that casual statement. Follow the link to Climate Central’s website and one might perhaps learn enough to wonder a statement to that effect by Climate Central is objective and valid (and one might also wonder why the supposedly objective BBC is giving them yet another opportunity to push their propaganda):
...At Climate Central, we envision a world where public will to address the climate challenge is robustly deep, broad, and sustained—where it becomes a core element of culture everywhere. No generation in human history has carried a greater burden nor shared a greater opportunity to shape the future for the better. And we know what is at stake.
To help address this existential threat, Climate Central’s mission is to make accurate and effective climate communication ubiquitous. We employ a range of research-based communication strategies: We generate tailored local content that makes information about climate impacts and solutions immediate, accessible, and personal. We do it widely. We do it frequently. We make it visual. And to reach diverse audiences effectively, we systematically deliver this content via trusted voices and pathways. We aim to make climate a top priority issue for citizens and decision-makers at every level in private and public sectors alike.
More specifically, we use science, big data, and technology to generate thousands of local storylines and compelling visual images that make clear the impacts of climate change, the unequal burdens they pose, and what can be done about it all. To disseminate this vital information at national and global scales, we work with a large and growing network of meteorologists and journalists, as well as many other trusted voices—from government and business leaders to planners, nongovernmental organizations, and educators….
LikeLike
...At Climate Central, we envision a world where public will to address the climate challenge is robustly deep, broad, and sustained—where it becomes a core element of culture everywhere.
What total, unmitigated, utter claptrap!
LikeLike
“Farmers pray for rain as dry spell affects crops”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qw4g57v09o
…An expert from the University of Reading said the seasonal weather patterns on which farmers rely “have clearly changed a lot” over recent years.
“We had a very wet winter,” Mr Rayner told BBC Radio Berkshire.
“I think we had 90 days of rain virtually from November to the end of February.
“At the end of February, it decided to stop raining….”…
…“I’m now 67. I have been farming since I was 17 and I can tell you, the weather has changed dramatically in that time.…”…
Anyone who thinks that a dry March is unusual, or that it represents climate change, clearly hasn’t read the opening two lines of the Prologue to the Canterbury Tales:
1 Whan that Aprill with his shoures soote
(When April with its sweet-smelling showers)
2 The droghte of March hath perced to the roote,
(Has pierced the drought of March to the root),
Credit to this website:
https://chaucer.fas.harvard.edu/pages/general-prologue-0
LikeLiked by 2 people
Even the Romans had agricultural drought conflicts!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/17/british-rebellion-against-roman-legions-caused-by-drought-research-finds
A series of exceptionally dry summers that caused famine and social breakdown were behind one of the most severe threats to Roman rule of Britain, according to new academic research.
Southern Britain experienced an exceptional sequence of remarkably dry summers from AD364 to 366, the researchers found. In the period AD350-500, average monthly reconstructed rainfall in the main growing season was 51mm. But in AD364, it fell to 29mm. AD365 was even worse with 28mm, and the rainfall the following year was still below average at 37mm.
What is quite amusing is that the study was published in Climatic Change with an apparent lack of self-awareness. Imagine if there were three consecutive years of extreme drought in the UK today it would be “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic climate change.
But they couldn’t resist trotting out the approved narrative:
Warning of the possible consequences of drought today, Tatiana Bebchuk, a researcher at Cambridge’s department of geography, said: “The relationship between climate and conflict is becoming increasingly clear in our own time, so these findings aren’t just important for historians. Extreme climate conditions lead to hunger, which can lead to societal challenges, which eventually lead to outright conflict.
LikeLiked by 2 people
potentilla,
Thanks for that. I find it quite amusing that I have books on my shelves that supply a narrative of extreme climate events over thousands of years, and they then solemnly declare that this is why modern-day (human-induced) climate change is such a problem.
Of late we at this website have perhaps concentrated more on criticising climate policies than being true climate sceptics. However, when I review the history of climate both globally and within the UK, I see nothing unusual in what is happening today, and I find the IPCC’s finding that all of the increase in current temperatures to be human-induced to be a most improbable conclusion. The world has seen the most remarkable climatic changes throughout its 4.5 billion years of existence, yet today’s modest changes can’t be natural and must be caused solely by us. I very much doubt that.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The outpourings of a computer model one minute, and facts the next.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes, we had forecasts with daytime temps of 12c and night of 6c, actual 8c most of the day reaching 10c for a couple of hours then back down to 8c. Night has fallen to 4c with snow on the hills. Checking old webcam pics up to 10 years ago looks pretty normal with snow on the hills.
LikeLike
JamesS,
I’m in Assynt. Just back down off the hill. It snowed on us on the summit. A grand day with fabulous views, because we had visibility of stunning clarity, due to the air coming from the Arctic. It’s a long time since I have been so cold on a hill.
LikeLike
Mark, Assynt is wonderful country. I was up on Conival about 4 decades ago – green in the valley by the caves but snow on the ridge. When we were just below the ridge we saw two Ptarmigan flying Eastwards very fast and low, just above the ridge. Why so fast we wondered. A couple of seconds afterwards came our answer: a Golden Eagle in hot pursuit.
Superb country. Wonderful day. Good memories. Thank you. Regards, John C.
LikeLiked by 1 person
John C,
In my opinion Assynt is the best of Scotland, though my best ever Scottish mountain day was a little further south on An Teallach.
I can see Conival from my hotel window, and have been up there twice now. 😊
LikeLiked by 1 person
Well, being a Scot from Lothian region, sad to say I had to look up Assynt as I can’t recall ever hearing of it. Glad you prompted me as it led to the some good folk music as well – Bing Videos
LikeLike
Last weekend in Whitby sun splitting the rocks, this weekend in Oban cold but clear. The diffraction in the air must be magnifying as Mull and Morvern look very close and distinctive. No snow here but all the Munros on the way up covered in snow . Last time up in Assynt sitting on the beach at Clachtol enjoying 25c , sea still freezing.
LikeLike
Mark, now you’re talking – An Teallach (The Forge). What a wonderful mountain chain, and right next to the oh-so-convenient Dundonnell Hotel. My Munroist friend, Huw, and I walked round the circuit in the anti-clockwise direction, starting from the hotel: lovely sunny day but not too hot for mountain walking. We were partly round the chain, walking steadily, when we were overtaken by about a dozen Royal Navy cadets running round the mountain. They shot on ahead and then ran down the scree slope to the lochan and then out to the road. Huw and I were about an hour behind them and eventually fought our way through the rhododendrons and onto the coast road. We emerged onto the road just a few yards from a stationary Royal Navy bus with cadets abord; its engine was not running. Huw and I turned left up the road back to the hotel, a distance of a couple of miles. We had not been going for more than a couple of minutes when the RN bus drew up beside us and offered us a lift. We very gratefully accepted. It is the only time I have been ‘rescued’ by the Navy.
Assynt is wonderful but I would make a strong claim for Torridon to be among the top ranked areas.
JamesS, I don’t know Clachtoll, but Suilven is a wonderful mountain nearby. It is a smaller mountain but appears not to be so as it is isolated when viewed from the seaward side. I have climbed it once, with Huw, in very hot weather. Not a good idea: sweat chafes something rotten.
dfhunter, I remember staying at the hotel in Glen Coe whose name escapes me – it will return … well aided by my Wilson & Gilbert’s “The Big Walks, I am reminded that it is called The Clachaig. Huw and I walked the Aonach Eagach ridge and the then returned to the hotel for a meal. Afterwards Huw stayed with his malt in the sedate eastern end of the hotel while I, after a while also with a malt, went to the other end of the establishment to join the elbow to elbow crush of humanity where the music was playing loudly and the beer was flowing very freely. What a cultural change from one end of the hotel to the other. You can’t beat a double night out in the Highlands.
Cheers! John C.
LikeLike
John C,
We are in danger of de-railing this thread, but I don’t care, and after all, it’s my thread. 😉
Torridon, of course , ranks very highly indeed. How could it not, with such glories as Liathach, Being Alligin, Being Eighe, Slioch and many others?
Yesterday we enjoyed what is probably the classic view of Suilven from the summit of Canisp. What a mountain, even if it is relatively small. It certainly packs a punch!
And Glen Coe is right up there too. It must be 35 years since I traversed the Aonach Eagach, but I still remember it fondly.
Finally, I would put in a shout for An Stac on Eigg – the view from it’s summit is possibly the finest mix of mountain and seascape I have ever seen.
LikeLike
The first time I went to Clachtoll was the hot summer of 76, there was very little there compared to now . My mother worked in Nigeria at the time and was home on leave for the summer, she had invited her 2 friends up to stay for a couple of weeks to experience real Scotland. Both her friends were history teacher’s, Paul from Isle of Wight and Alf from Shrewsbury, there only experience of Scotland had been to Edinburgh and Stirling for a weekend castles trip. So of we went in a Hillman Avenger 1600 into the wilds of the north of Scotland. It took us the full 2 weeks going up the west and coming down the east, the wonderful thing was the sun shone everyday. Clachtoll now has a large caravan site with families from Manchester and Birmingham stopping of on the NC 500 . Today in Oban there are people from USA, France, Italy, Japan, England and us from Perthshire !
LikeLike
Mark – thanks for cutting us some slack, but it is weather related kinda 🙂
From your head post & as JamesS comments “Just as with the summer of 1976, which sticks in the memory because it was so unusual”
I remember that hot summer well, swimming in the river Almond to cool off, best days which stay with you forever.
LikeLike
dfhunter,
Those of us of a certain age will always remember the summer of 1976. We have seen nothing like it since, certainly not in Scotland or in the north of England, whatever the alarmists say.
LikeLike
Ah! The summer of ’76. How balmy it was. It it also allows me to get back on track (albeit briefly). There were about 70 days of flat calm winds that summer i.e. totally unsuited for wind turbines. So with an engineer’s 50% safety factor, or at least 100% safety factor for safety critical services that means we need about 140 days of electrical energy storage to see use through another “summer of ’76 “. That is quite a bit of storage, expensive storage, Ed. So, please, can we be sensible and get back to fossil fuels? After all, unreliable “renewables” save fuel; they do NOT save energy, as the EROEI parameter shows.. Regards, John C.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I have just heard of the death of pope Francis. One of the things said about him was that “he saw the world from the bottom up, rather than from the top down.” If only our UK politicians and mainstream media could see the world from that perspective; I believe the country has had far too much of the Luxury Beliefs of the elite classes. Regards, John C.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark, the thread has not been derailed but rather gone in a logical direction. It is fascinating that climate sceptics are also lovers of nature and landscape especially the wild places of Scotland. But it is perhaps not too surprising given the visceral impact of wind turbines exposed on the high ridges. Supporters of wind and solar power seem to mostly come from urban areas with people that have no feeling for landscape.
I remember Aonach Eagach very well. My brother and I traversed the ridge in snow at Easter 1964. The next day we crossed Glencoe and climbed Bidean nam Bian. Weather was cloudy and snowy so no views. But in later summers the view from the Cuillin ridge across the seas to Rum and Eigg were magnificent. Nothing quite like it anywhere.
LikeLiked by 2 people
When we did our 40 day tour of Scotland in 2018, my must visit location was the far north west region. Off the beaten track, away from the traditional tourist traps of the Highlands, spectacular otherworld scenery – all appealed to me. It didn’t disappoint. I have some beautiful photos and beautiful memories of our time spent there. We spent a few nights parked up on a steep mountain slope with spectacular views of the hills and sea lochs. Beats any hotel! Then we came across a small dog running along the road. Picked him up and took him to a hippy living nearby in a run down caravan by the side of the road, thinking it might be his dog. But it wasn’t. He promised us he’d look after him and take him into town to ask around the locals if anyone had lost a dog. Would love to go back there again. Can’t believe it was nearly seven years ago I was there. Weather was great too.
LikeLiked by 2 people
potentilla,
Yes, you make a very good point. My anger at the environmentally damaging effects of energy policy is because I have such a deep love of our wild places. While on Breabag, above Inchnadamph a few days ago, I wallowed in the glorious view of the Assynt mountains covering the western skyline from south to north. However, less dramatic, but equally wild and beautiful, to the south east is Strath Oykel. Currently pristine, it is about to be covered in wind turbines, thanks to the Scottish government’s decision to ignore the views of local objectors and their own inspector, and instead to nod through the proposed appalling development.
Bidean Nam Bian in Glen Coe, the highest mountain in Argyll – so good, I’ve climbed it twice. 😉
LikeLiked by 1 person
Globally, April 2025 is the second warmest April ever according to Zeke Hausfather:
I shall remember this month for being often pleasantly sunny, but overall, bloody cold! Global warming has abandoned Blighty yet again, although I’m sure the Met Office will tell us different.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jaime,
The UK does seem to be bucking the global trend (which can now apparently be discerned just two thirds of the way through a period), though no doubt the Met Office will tell us we’re wrong, in due course.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jaime/Mark – I do notice the weather forecasters (sometimes) show how the polar Jet Stream undulations affect the UK Maritime weather, as it always has.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Poor BBC – no climate change angle here!
“UK mini heatwave on the way”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c89g5wd3pzeo
If it feels a bit chilly now, just wait until next week when it will be much warmer.
More sunshine and a change in the wind direction are expected to bring the warmest weather of the year so far....
...Saturday sees temperatures range from 13-17C with the possibility of western areas seeing some rain. Eastern parts of the UK are likely to stay dry but there will be a good deal of cloud.
On Sunday the next band of rain will be pushed back to Scotland and Northern Ireland. In England and Wales, as pressure starts to rise, the cloud will break to leave sunnier skies and it will start to warm up….
...Temperatures will climb widely to 22-23C and it will feel very pleasant in the sunshine. In the Midlands and south-east England temperatures are forecast to reach 25-27C by Wednesday.
This will be the warmest weather of the year so far and the warmest since early September.
It is not unusual to have these temperatures at this time of the year. The highest April temperature ever recorded is 29.4C which was reached in London on 16 April 1949.…
LikeLike
Looking at the webcam pics for Fort William and Ben Nevis, today there are traces of snow on the tops. Looking back through the history 1,2,3 – – 10 years ago, on 25/04/15 virtually the whole mountains were covered in snow. My only recollection of a ‘late spring’ was the very poor start to the trout fishing and rain, if we get 20c next week, bring it on, the old bones need a good warming !
LikeLiked by 1 person
I stayed on Knoydart in the middle of May a few years ago. On the way there the summit cone of Ben Nevis was glistening white, still covered in deep snow. It snowed on us in Knoydart, and the summit ridge of Ladhar Bheinn was a bit rough in whiteout conditions.
Similarly, a few years ago, a bit nearer in time, I aborted my attempt on the Rum Cuillin ridge because, as I was on my own with no phone signal, I adjudged the freshly fallen slushy slippery snow made it too dangerous.
If we have a few pleasantly warm days next week, just like those cold, snowy, May days, it’s all just weather.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hi Mark, JamesS & others – after hearing your inspiring tales of Scottish mountains, I just had to post this – Mountain Men | Jethro Tull The vid is a bit grainy, but captures the mountains you all might know.
The Jethro Tull – Mountain Men Lyrics & Meanings | SongMeanings are sad but inspiring at the same time.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’m sure the castle is Dunnottar Castle near Stonehaven on the East coast just South of Aberdeen. The mountains are very familiar views from all over Scotland, with the barren group looking like the mountains up in Assynt . I thought there was a glimpse of Stac Pollaidh in the mix. If I tried to play the flute on 1 leg I would fall over with my knees !
LikeLiked by 1 person
I freely accept that I have it in for the BBC and its eternal pushing of claims about extreme weather and the supposed climate crisis, both directly and subliminally. However, just now the BBC Radio 4 weather forecast told us that next week might even see reach temperatures reaching 80. The BBC weather forecast has used centigrade for a very long time. All other temperatures today were given in centigrade. Why mention “80”? I assume it was because it sounds more dramatic than the centigrade equivalent.
Maybe I am just obsessive (I accept it’s a possibility), but it seems odd at best, calculated and deliberate at worst.
LikeLike
Mark – was watching GBnews today & they had a “coming uk heatwave made worse by climate change” ticker headline or wording to that effect.
Seems all MSM get & report the same message – How do we define a heatwave, and will we have one next week? – Met Office
Partial quote –
“Heatwaves and Climate Change
Heatwaves are extreme weather events, and research indicates that climate change is making them more frequent and intense. A study by the Met Office on the Summer 2018 heatwave in the UK found that such events are now 30 times more likely to occur than before the industrial revolution due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As these concentrations continue to rise, heatwaves of similar intensity are projected to become even more common, potentially occurring every other year by the 2050s.
Since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), the global average temperature has increased by 1.3°C, with UK temperatures rising by a similar amount.”
As you & others have noted, any weather in the UK can now be labelled an “extreme weather event” & “such events” have only one cause.
LikeLike
dfhunter,
And in that context, this from 2017 is interesting:
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/10/191
Abstract:
Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds.
I bet in the intervening years much work has been done to ensure this sort of thing is much more in line with the message now.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – thanks for the link. Notice it was part of this – Atmosphere | Special Issue : Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves. Partial quote –
“Dear Colleagues,
Since 1950, a series of temperature extremes have affected many parts of the world. Temperature changes are likely to be accompanied by an increase in the intensity and frequency of cold and heat waves. Moreover, the risks associated with these hot or cold weather episodes have increased. According to the Met Office, the European heat wave of 2003 was the warmest period in the last 500 years; thousands of people died due to the heat in France and others European countries. Similarly, extreme heat waves have been experienced during the summer of 2007 in Asia and southern Europe, and the summer of 2011 in North America. Extremely warm summers that used to only occur once a century are now expected to happen every other year as a result of climate change. Moreover, the frequency of cold waves has noticeably increased. The coldest winter and longest cold spell for thirty years in the United Kingdom was the winter 2009–2010, while North America faced many cold wave episodes from spring 2013 to fall/autumn 2014.
This Special Issue is now open for submissions of novel and original papers outlining important scientific investigations. Modeling and observational studies on the changes of the frequency and the intensity of extreme temperatures (heat and cold waves) are also welcomed.
Dr. Christina Anagnostopoulou
Guest Editor“
“Published Papers (16 papers)”
LikeLike
“UK could see hottest April weather in seven years with 27C expected this week”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cy489e83j74o
Where I live the BBC weather forecast tells me that I can expect two hours this week when the temperature might briefly reach 20C.
The April temperature record, set in London in 1949, isn’t likely to be broken.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – love how they say “UK could see hottest April weather in seven years with 27C expected this week”
However, just look at the temp map to see – “In south-east England a temperature of 27-28C (81-82F) is likely although many areas further north will have started to turn cooler by this stage.”
So It’s south-east England as usual, not the UK as a whole, but the message/narrative is reinforced.
LikeLike
I suppose this was inevitable:
“Will UK break heat records for start of May and will it last?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c5y54enegj7o
…what is becoming clearer with a changing climate is that the blocking patterns – resulting in this wind direction – are becoming more frequent.
Data from the independent climate research group Climate Central suggests that temperatures this week have been made at least five times more likely, external by human-induced climate change.
It’s during blocked weather patterns when we tend to see more extreme weather such as heatwaves and droughts in the spring and summer…
LikeLike
Mark,
I might have known. The ‘five times more likely’ claim is based on Climate Central’s Mickey Mouse Climate Shift Index (CSI), and the ‘science’ which underpins it is here:
https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/135/2022/
Whaddya know. Up pops climate activist Friederike Otto again, listed as one of the authors!
BBC promoting pseudoscientific weather attribution BS yet again.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Heh, https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/135/2022/ is a right load of cobblers!
LikeLiked by 1 person
True.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Headlines like this are as annoying as they are tedious:
“Parts of UK bracing for hottest day of year as temperatures forecast to hit 29C”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy0mwvx04lt
Bracing! I suspect the vast majority of people are thoroughly enjoying it.
...Temperatures here in London could reach a sweltering 29C, while other parts of the UK are also expected to bask in the warm – though not all.
We have one eye this morning on the rail and London Underground networks to tell you if there are any heat-related problems, while our colleagues at BBC Weather will be bringing the most up-to-date forecasts.
For those heading outdoors, remember your suncream, breathable clothing and to embrace the shade during the hottest part of the day – plus we’ll have some more tips on how to cope with the heat….
Oh for pity’s sake. Meanwhile, where I live, it’s forecast to reach an eye-watering 18C.
LikeLiked by 4 people
LikeLike
The powers that be, whose job it is to promote Net Zero collectivism via ‘extreme’ British weather, appear to have come to the conclusion that they might as well go at it hammer and tongs now and treat the British populace as if they are total imbeciles who are susceptible to even the most absurd catastrophising of a few pleasant sunny days, backed up by ridiculous temperature ‘records’ being registered next to the portaloo at St James’s Park and on the runway at Heathrow (no doubt just as a jet is taxiing for take-off). They figure that the numbers of people they might turn off with this ‘sledgehammer to crack a nut’ approach does not exceed the number of gullible halfwits who will buy into the propaganda.
I hesitate to opine on whether they are correct or not in this approach.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Notice they always say since records began, but never state when that was for some reason?
Jaime – It’s always the S/E England, London area (heat island) or an airport/runway.
LikeLiked by 2 people
The greenhouse area at Kew Gardens is favourite.
LikeLiked by 3 people
That would be the Greenhouse Effect then.
So I expect Otto and friends will soon be telling us the ‘hottest ever start to May’ was made 10 times more likely by climate change.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Well, I don’t know about anyone else, but I certainly braced for 29 degrees.
The present temperature in sunny Norwich is 10, and according to the weather app, the wind chill means it feels like 4.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Not so cold as that here today, but pretty fresh, nevertheless. My wife and I have been pottering about on the foothills of Black Combe, near Millom, swerving the bank holiday weekend crowds in the Lake District. Temperatures probably peaked at 13C, but driving home the car thermometer dropped to 10.5C, and the stiff northerly breeze made it feel cold, especially when the sun went behind a cloud.
On the plus side, we heard our first cuckoo of the year, and the northerly wind made for good visibility. The Isle of Man was crystal clear, I am confident we saw the Clywdian Hills to the south, and I have a suspicion that we could just make out Northern Ireland too.
But no heatwave was in evidence, that’s for sure!
LikeLiked by 3 people
Mark, there is a tall TV transmission aerial on Moel Y Parc in the Clwydian range, at about the latitude of Denbigh; that may help with topographical identification. Regards, John C.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Exceptionally low river levels raise fears over water supplies”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmkn7rjv7zo
…The warning comes after the driest spring in England since 1961, with northern regions experiencing the driest start to the year in nearly a century.…
Meaning it has been drier in the 20th century. But that doesn’t stop them asking:
Are the dry conditions linked to climate change?
The answer is that nobody can say:
…The prolonged dry weather is linked to what are called “blocking highs” when a high pressure weather system becomes stuck.
Scientists do not know if this blocked pattern is linked to climate change...
But they still conclude the article thus:
…Global warming is expected to cause more extreme weather events globally.
Studies about our future climate suggest more and longer periods of dry weather as well as periods of less rainfall in the UK. Winters are likely to be wetter and warmer.
That could exacerbate other forms of drought like hydrological or agricultural drought, according to the Met Office.
That would be the Met Office that produced a three month forecast saying that February, March and April were likely to be wetter than usual:
LikeLike
Funnily enough, not a mention of climate change when it’s a good news story:
“‘Too big to fit in your mouth’: sunny spring delivers crop of ‘giant’ UK strawberries
‘Perfect’ weather conditions produce berries that growers say are between 10% and 20% bigger than usual”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/18/giant-uk-strawberries-weather-growers
The UK’s sunny spring weather has provided “perfect” conditions to produce strawberries so big you “cannot fit them in your mouth”, UK growers have said.
With nearly 20 years’ experience, Bartosz Pinkosz, the operations director at the Summer Berry Company, has “never seen anything like it”. The strawberries being harvested this month by the leading grower are whoppers thanks to the combination of lots of sunshine and cool nights….
LikeLike
The Guardian failed to mention climate change, but we can always rely on the BBC – I think it must be an integral part of their Charter:
“Will 2025 be a sweet year for strawberry growers and consumers?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rpn41wxdqo
The UK’s strawberry season is off to a “stonking start”, according to one grower, with warm days and cooler nights meaning they are sweeter than usual.
Marion Regan, managing director of Kent-based Hugh Lowe Farms, told the BBC that a “glorious spring” this year had contributed to a “really good crop” of the fruit....
…Ms Regan, who has been growing strawberries for more than 50 years, said she was noticing that this year’s were a “good size” so far but that the “most marked thing” was their sweetness.
A combination of warm days and cool nights are known to make strawberries sweeter. The lower night temperatures allow them to rest and put the energy they have gained during the day into producing more natural sugars….
…This year marks a very different start to the strawberry-growing season than in 2024, when the fruit was delayed in ripening following one of the wettest winters on record. Scientists have said climate change was a major factor in this weather.
It is also well-established that human-caused climate change is making spells of hot weather more likely, and that hot days have become more common in the UK.
Over the decade 2014-2023, days exceeded 28C more than twice as often as the 1961-1990 average, according to the Met Office.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
So climate change is making both wet days and dry days more common. It’s worse than I thought.
LikeLike
And both hot and cold days more common too…
LikeLike
“2025 is the sunniest spring ever recorded in NI”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj882yqz6po
Inevitably:
Climate Change?
An individual spell of weather cannot be directly attributed to climate change, but climate change dictates more extreme weather events, including heatwaves, flooding and droughts.
LikeLike
It’s getting beyond ludicrous now. This is a main news story on the BBC website, not tucked away under local news or weather:
“UK temps to hit 26C this weekend after sunniest spring on record”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c0eqxjjvxw7o
...The forecast higher temperatures are down to a weak ridge of high pressure that will build over the south of the UK.
In the warmest areas, temperatures are expected to reach 23C on Thursday, climbing to 25C on Friday and 26C on Saturday.
Is this a heatwave?…
To which they have to admit the answer is firmly in the negative, followed by a plaintive:
…Well, is it a mini-heatwave then?…
Hilariously, the answer is:
…Meteorologists do not have an official definition for a “mini-heatwave,” so it is not a term we use to describe the weather. We would be more likely to refer to it as “a few warm days”.…
And the report goes on equally inconsequentially:
…Meanwhile low pressure will continue to bring rain and showers to northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland over the next few days. Temperatures will remain slightly above the May average, and it will feel pleasant whenever the Sun breaks through the clouds.…
Why is this even a story? Is it a quiet news week, or something?
By the way, top temperatures where I live during those three scorching days highlighted by the BBC (next Thursday, Friday, Saturday) aren’t forecast to exceed 17C according to the BBC online weather forecast.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – TT riders & fans would like to have a mini heatwave for the next 2 wks 😦
The forecast higher temperatures are down to a weak ridge of high pressure that will build over the south of the UK.
Well I never, SE England again.
LikeLike
We have our village Highland Games this Saturday (always last Saturday in May) overs the years we have gone from ” it always rains on games day” to ” games day is the first day of summer”. I have had to work on games day in the past notably 1992 when we had squally snow showers on the Ochils, the village disappeared from view for 5 minutes while the snow went through then out popped the sun revealing a winters scene of highland dancing and caber tossing ! This weekend we are due thundery showers and moderate wind , ” it always rains on games day” !
LikeLiked by 1 person
James S,
I have enjoyed hot sunshine in Scotland on quite a few occasions in May. Equally, I have suffered whiteout snow conditions on Scottish hills in May in three different years that I can immediately bring to mind.
LikeLike
The Highland Games have started, the Pipe band marched round the village playing nice marching tunes like Scotland the Brave (should have been the national anthem) with the sun poking through some ominous clouds. Fingers crossed for the rest of the afternoon as a reasonable crowd building. This is JamesS at the games park .
LikeLike
JamesS,
I hope everyone has a good day. Leafing through my diaries I see that the entry for 31st May concluded this:
At last, an end to May. The worst month of May weather that I can remember.
Ten years ago May was awful, this year it has been lovely. It’s weather, not climate change.
LikeLike
“Met Office sees greater chance of hot summer and heatwaves”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cy75p18jvn5o
The UK is more likely to experience a hotter-than-normal summer with an increased chance for heatwaves, according to the Met Office.
In its most recent three month outlook, it has predicted that meteorological summer – which runs from 1 June to 31 August – is twice as likely to be hotter than normal in 2025.
The prediction follows an unprecedented spring which was the sunniest, as well as one of the driest and warmest, on record….
The BBC really ought to do better than this. A Met Office three-months prediction is not news, Bear in mind that despite it following “an unprecedented spring which was the sunniest, as well as one of the driest and warmest, on record” before it happened the Met Office was predicting a wetter than usual spring. Their three month forecasts are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
But there’s a reason why the BBC does this – it all helps to bolster the climate change narrative:
…A consequence of a potentially hotter summer is that when rain does occur it will be more intense, in line with climate scientists’ predictions, and potentially have bigger localised impacts.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
I should have added this absolute howler:
…So what is set to drive the expected warmth? With no strong signal for any particular weather pattern evident, the Met Office says that the warming is being largely brought about by human-induced climate change.…
Mystic Meg observes no strong signal for any particular weather pattern, but it’s going to be hot because….climate change. This isn’t science, it’s a religion.
Then there’s this:
…This does not necessarily mean that we will experience hot weather or heatwaves this summer, only that the risk of them occurring, and the health and infrastructure impacts they bring is greater.…
Risk?!!! I should have thought most people would look forward to a dry hot summer, not worry about it. Health and infrastructure impacts? Propaganda and nonsense on stilts.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Next they will run a story advising people to open windows & shut curtains/blinds to keep cool in sweltering UK this summer.
LikeLike
“UK’s spring was warmest on record, Met Office says”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyjkze510ro
…Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said: “The UK’s climate continues to change.
“This spring shows some of the changes we’re seeing in our weather patterns, with more extreme conditions, including prolonged dry, sunny weather, becoming more frequent.”
The horror !
LikeLiked by 2 people
The story of spring. It was the sunniest on record:
UK – Sunshine
Spring
In terms of mean maximum daytime temperature, it was by far the warmest on record:
UK – Mean daily maximum temp
Spring
Night time temperatures were not especially high (because of clear skies), so the mean daily temperature was only slightly above the record warm spring last year:
UK – Mean temperature
Spring
So, lots of sunshine meant that temperatures soared during the daytime. Who knew? No nasty planet warming man-made greenhouse gases required; just fresh air and sunshine. As happened in 1893, although the sunshine graph doesn’t go back that far. But spring 1893 was very sunny too and very dry, the second driest on record, even drier than 2025:
UK – Rainfall
Spring
What we see here is the notoriously changeable British weather in action, as fickle, changeable and unpredictable as it has been since records began, and long before that. If there is any ‘climate change’ signal to be seen in the graphs above, it is a gradual warming of spring since the 1970s which has coincided with an increase in spring sunshine hours (and thus surface warming solar insolation) over that period. Again, no CO2 needed.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Not for the Isle of Man TT, Pissy climate change again.
Can’t be bothered to read the link Mark, your quote tells the story –
“Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said: “The UK’s climate continues to change“
This is my back garden –
LikeLike
“Heatwave likely as yellow heat health alerts issued in England”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3n8kgdj50o
Yellow heat health alerts have been issued for most of England with temperatures set to climb as high as 33C by the weekend.
Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East England, the South East, the South West and London are all covered by the alert which comes into force at 12:00 BST on Wednesday and lasts until 18:00 on Sunday.
Temperatures were expected to reach 28C in London on Tuesday, with an area of high pressure building across the UK likely to bring the first heatwave of 2025 later in the week.……
…Many parts of the UK will see temperatures range between 25C and 30C, with some areas potentially reaching up to 33C, for example in London.
While such heat is not unprecedented this early in the summer, it is still considered quite intense.
The UK’s June temperature record stands at 35.6C, set in Southampton in 1976, and current forecasts suggest that this record is unlikely to be broken this time....
Not unprecedented, nowhere near a record – yet:
…The Met Office says heatwaves are now 30 times more likely to occur than before the industrial revolution – and are projected to become even more common, potentially occurring every other year by the 2050s as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise.…
Curiously, the map that accompanies the BBC article (which features lots of red colouring) has 25(C) plastered across Scotland, north of where I live. And yet the BBC forecast for my part of Cumbria suggests that the temperature will peak at 24C (for all of two hours on Friday), followed by a high of 23C on Saturday, 21C on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, before dropping to a high of 19C on Wednesday. In other words nowhere near a heat wave (as defined by the Met Office) here, though it should be rather pleasant. Isn’t this what we used to call summer?
In other news, we haven’t turned the central heating off yet, with less than 90 hours to go to the summer solstice. Maybe we will be able to do so at last on Friday. 🙂
LikeLiked by 1 person
The BBC is at it again with its misleading use of language:
“UK hits hottest day of the year as heatwave approaches”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2z4rmyl0yo
The UK has recorded its hottest day of the year with temperatures passing 30C, as amber heat health alerts are in place across the whole of England.
A temperature of 30.1C was recorded at St James’s Park, London – higher than the previous record of 29.4C in Suffolk on 13 June.…
In what sense was a temperature of 29.4C recorded on 13th June a “record”? It was merely the warmest day of the year to that point, and it has now been superseded by another warmest day to date, which is 0.7C warmer. That’s normal as we progress into summer. It is categorically not a record.
LikeLiked by 1 person
A few days of summer weather, and the BBC and the Guardian have gone mad:
“Deadly weekend heat in England ‘100 times more likely’ due to climate crisis
High temperatures likely to cause deaths and will worsen in future as global heating intensifies, scientists warn”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/20/england-weekend-heatwave-worse-climate-crisis
The dangerous 32C heat that will be endured by people in the south-east of England on Saturday will have been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists have calculated.
Global heating, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is making every heatwave more likely and more intense. The 32C (89.6F) day forecast on Saturday would have been expected only once every 2,500 years without the climate crisis, the researchers said, and June heatwaves are now about 2-4C (3.6-7.2F) hotter than in the past.
The heat is expected to cause premature deaths, particularly among older and vulnerable people. More than 10,000 people died before their time in summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024, according to the UK Health Security Agency, and the UK government has been heavily criticised for failing to properly prepare people for extreme weather….
Where to start? 32C (“dangerous” and “endured”) is the sort of temperature people seek when flying to the Med for their holidays.
A once in every 2,500 years event? Seriously?
And just a reminder – many more people die from cold than from heat. We don’t get this alarmism about cold every winter. Why not?
LikeLiked by 1 person
PS The BBC weather forecast for where I live is changing daily (you can’t rely on it even 24 hours ahead). We are now forecast warmer temperatures today than they were previously saying. However – shock horror – the forecast is only for us to reach 26C for one hour. Tomorrow it’s apparently set to break down – 22C and showers. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be wet with top temperatures of 16C. Thereafter the highest forecast temperature in the 14 day forecast is 19C. Let’s just say this summer’s weather hasn’t scared me, though I am more likely to “endure” a wet and cold summer day than I am to “endure” a sunny and warm one.
LikeLiked by 1 person
They are literally insane. One day of 32C we are supposed to believe would only have happened once every 2500 years before the ‘climate crisis’. 1976 was before the ‘climate crisis’; in fact, the prevailing scare in the 1970s was the alleged threat of a new Ice Age. So what would be the odds of the UK experiencing fifteen consecutive days of 32C temperatures from June 23rd to July 7th? Because that’s what happened. Must have been a once in a million year event at least. Climate alarmism has completely lost touch with reality now and the media, politicians and the ‘scientific’ establishment are spinning a 100% fantasy narrative.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Jaime: I just heard an extraordinary item on PM, where Justin Rowlatt was wheeled on to explain these highly believable odds. Then the host – Anita Anand – expressed consternation that the following storms might have hailstones attached. Rowlatt made a ham-fisted attempt to explain that hailstones are normal in thunderstorms.
The BBC at its informing, educating, entertaining best.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Ah yes Jit, the once in every 2500 years hot day followed by bog standard thunderstorms with bog standard hail. The climate changed weather gods certainly do have a sense of humour.
LikeLike
Only thing I would add to Marks comments, all the TV channels follow the same script (GB news pokes a bit fun at the hysteria, but still repeat the same “record” news on the ticker banner).
I can only assume they all get the same MET office memo.
LikeLike
“Antarctic ice has grown again – but this does not buck overall melt trend
Study shows ice sheet gained mass from 2021 to 2023, due to extreme snowfall that was also an effect of climate crisis”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2025/jun/26/antarctic-ice-grown-again-does-not-buck-overall-melt-trend
Anew study shows that after decades of rapid decline, the Antarctic ice sheet actually gained mass from 2021 to 2023. This is a reminder that climate change does not follow a smooth path but a jagged one, with many small ups and downs within a larger trend.
The research, published in the journal Science China Earth Sciences, showed that while the ice sheet lost an average of 142bn tonnes each year in the 2010s, in the 2021 to 2023 period it gained about 108bn tonnes of ice each year.
The study focused on four massive glacier basins and concluded that the increase in the early 2020s was caused by greater snowfall, particularly in eastern Antarctica. Extreme snowfall events, due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture, are an expected effect of climate change. But Antarctica has been losing ice since the 1980s, and it would take about 50 years of snowfall at the increased level to get back to previous levels.
More recent Nasa data suggests the snowfall trend observed in the report had disappeared by 2025, with precipitation dropping back to pre-2020 levels....
Have I got this right? Declining Antarctic ice was because of climate change. Growing Antarctic ice was because of climate change because it resulted from increased snowfall, which was the result of climate change. Now the snowfall levels have gone back to what they were before they went up because of climate change. Presumably this reversion to previous levels is also because of climate change. They can’t really lose, can they?
LikeLiked by 3 people
At the moment we are in Scarborough with 2 of our grandkids for a week of fun and nonsense . The weather here is not bad at the moment with some nice days forecast for next week, we left behind in central Scotland some awful weather 13c and rain. There seems to be a real temperature gradient from 13c to 30c up and down the country with the west getting all the rain. Just an observation,it has virtually rained everyday in the Mull/Oban area since the sunny spell in May. On the trip down here we left very green countryside, started to get yellower on the A66 ( awful road never again) and down here quite dry yellow looking, but by no means a disaster as the press seem to be making out, it is summer by the way. We had planned on going to the west, thank goodness we chose here the forecast is still rain everyday till mid July.
LikeLiked by 1 person
James S,
Yes, so much for the drought alarmism of the last few weeks in the MSM.
As for the A66, sadly I can’t say “never again” as it’s the only viable route for me to use to visit family. But you know what I think of it, and of people who stand in the way of making it safer:
https://cliscep.com/2024/05/04/highway-to-hell/
LikeLike
Just to point out that the new Met Office 5 day weather forecast is total junk. It’s telling me that there will be “light winds” for the next hour and the rest of the afternoon. It’s blowing hard out there and tipping it down and I guess I will just have to put wellies and a raincoat on and take the dogs out. If I stick to sheltered spots in the forest, then the Met Office forecast will be good.
LikeLiked by 1 person
If you home in on a single day, there’s always a good chance you can establish a record for that day – hottest, coldest, wettest, driest, windiest, lowest daytime temperature. highest overnight temperature, etc, etc. And so it proves:
“UK records warmest ever Bonfire night – when will November temperatures finally drop?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/ckgklg15yxgo
...Bonfire Night on Thursday was the warmest ever recorded with temperatures staying above 14C in a number of places – something more akin to what we might typically expect during the day.
The previous record of 13.9C, was set in 1938 at Gordon Castle in Scotland….
…The daytime has also been incredibly mild with temperatures peaking at 19C in Plymouth on Wednesday. …
All true – it has felt unseasonably mild here in Cumbria over the last couple of days, with temperatures touching 16C. But it’s a stretch to claim a record for a specific day in the calendar by reference only to overnight temperature. The November temperature record in the UK is actually 22.4C.
This time the BBC contented itself with the dramatic headline. When the 2015 record was set, inevitably it invoked climate change, even though it was down to the jet stream:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63597025
...King adds: “Climate change may be altering the typical position of the jet stream further north – when considering its horizontal position/latitude averages over decades. This is different, though, from this scenario where the jet stream is meandering north to south like a big U.
“However, the warmer weather we’ve experienced this autumn – and extreme overnight temperatures just seen – are the types of conditions we’re likely to experience more frequently in the future with climate change,” he cautions….
LikeLike
It’s been remarkably warm so far in November. Bonfire night was very mild, but wet and quite windy. Now it is very still and equally mild. I remember November 5th as generally being settled, crisp and cold, often dry, and that was in London, so yes, seasonal weather patterns do appear to have shifted, as it’s not just this November. But blaming an increase of approximately 50ppm in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is insane. October saw some quite cold nights by contrast. We got a frost here on some nights. It really does depend on where the air mass that settles over the British Isles originates from. At the moment, there is a gentle flow of air from southern Europe and the Bay of Biscay. Just wait until we get a northerly flow or even a blast of cold, dry continental air all the way from Siberia. The Beeb will no doubt try to blame catch-all climate change for Brass Monkeys as well!
LikeLike
“England facing drastic measures due to extreme drought next year
Government and water companies are devising emergency plans for worst water shortage in decades”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/08/england-faces-extreme-drought-next-year
Water companies and the government are drawing up emergency plans for a drought next year more extreme than we have seen in decades.
Executives at one major water company told the Guardian they were extremely concerned about the prospect of a winter with lower than average rainfall, which the Met Office’s long-term forecast says is likely. They said if this happened, the water shortfall would mean taking drastic water use curtailment measures “going beyond hosepipe bans”.…
This is quite funny, being typical of Guardian climate scare-mongering. It’s been raining for weeks, the ground is sodden, and the forecast for the next fourteen days is remorselessly wet. We aren’t going to see the worst water shortage in decades (unless AI uses all our water).
If it had been a dry winter, following a dry summer, it would merely have been a repeat of the weather of half a century ago (one of the reasons the 1976 drought was so severe was because 1975 saw a hot summer followed by a dry winter).
No doubt if this winter continues to be wet, the World Weather Attribution people will tell us it’s because of climate change, and the Guardian and the BBC will lap it up.
LikeLiked by 2 people
“…the prospect of a winter with lower than average rainfall, which the Met Office’s long-term forecast says is likely.“
It’s also amusing to note that the Met Office is maintaining its record of spectacularly inaccurate long-term forecasts.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“lower than average” – I don’t know the distribution of winter rainfall, but this is not much of a prediction, a model based on a coin flip giving the same answer 50% of the time.
LikeLike
As you say Mark, it’s been raining here for weeks; we’ve had a handful of dry days between late October and now, and if anything, it’s got even wetter during the first week of winter. With three dogs, I’m up to my eyeballs in mud and I’m thinking of building a mini Ark in order to escape Ar-mud-geddon! I would welcome an exceptionally dry winter to be honest, but if that means the water company is going to start sending me letters to save water or even tell me that I should prepare for water rationing, I’m not going to be amused!
LikeLike