The problem

A little over three years ago, the BBC’s Future Planet series informed us that “[a]round 2.4% of global CO2 emissions come from aviation. Together with other gases and the water vapour trails produced by aircraft, the industry is responsible for around 5% of global warming.” Worse still:

…emissions from planes are rising rapidly – they increased by 32% between 2013 and 2018. While improving fuel efficiency is gradually reducing the emissions per passenger, it is not keeping up with the rapid increase in total passenger numbers, which are projected to double in the next 20 years.

Seven years ago, CarbonBrief decided to do some sums and concluded that even if the aviation industry met its own targets, it would be consuming 12% of the global carbon budget compatible with the mythical 1.5C, by 2050. If it fails to meet its targets, things will be so bad that its share of that budget could rise to 27%.

What is to be done?

Well, the Guardian has just published an article on its website discussing the options. We are reminded of the problem:

…passenger numbers are booming, with rampant demand for travel after Covid. Airlines are gearing up for worldwide growth, as China reopens and Indian carriers expand.

Unfortunately the Holy Grail seems to be beyond us for now:

Bar the obvious solution of flying less, immediate tangible steps to cut CO2 are limited. Commercial flights using hydrogen or electric power are, at best, a hope for the future. Replacing old fleets with modern fuel-efficient planes for less CO2 a head is a step most airlines are taking – but that benefits the bottom line more than the environment when more people fly.

The magical elixir, it seems, is now “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF). Unfortunately:

Airlines might be using “every single drop” of SAF available, but that amounts to 0.1% of the total jet fuel needed – and supplies are impossible to find in much of the world.

Synthetic or e-fuels are supposedly an answer – “seen as the most credible way forward by many – involving a process that draws carbon dioxide from the air, albeit energy-intensively, rather than using sources that are limited or problematic.”

Problematic solutions

Almost incredibly, one of the “problematic” solutions that has been touted is the use of animal fats. Pigs seem to be in the firing line Quite apart from the ethical problem of raising pigs in order to kill them so that flying can carry on with a clean conscience, there is a rather practical consideration too:

According to a report by the Brussels-based charity Transport and Environment, creating enough SAF for a transatlantic flight would require the fat of 8,800 pigs….

…Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airlines, asked: “There’s only so many animals you can slaughter to get the oil … Where’s the feedstock?” For him, e-fuels are more feasible, but he warned: “Money is probably the biggest single blocker, because these are hugely expensive programmes. So I’m afraid that means nuclear coming into the mix. That’s not going to sit well with Greens, but in the end, I don’t see how you’re going to drive enough power to get your synthetic fuels and power the rest of the global economy sustainably with wind or whatever it may be.”

Oh dear, it’s a tricky conundrum. For once, however, the BBC beat the Guardian to the story. “Using pig fat as green jet fuel will hurt planet, experts warn”, they advised us as long ago as 31st May. And the BBC gives us plenty of detail that is rather concerning:

The fact that animal fats are used as fuel will come as a surprise to many.

For centuries tallow and lard have been used to make candles, soaps and cosmetics.

However, over the last 20 years or so, biodiesel made from these animal wastes or from used cooking oils, has steadily grown in use in the UK and further afield.

Across Europe, fuel made from dead animals has grown fortyfold since 2006, according to the new research.

Much of this material is used in cars and trucks as biodiesel, which is classed as a sustainable fuel, and as such it has a much lower carbon footprint under the rules.

But UK and EU governments are now very keen to increase the use of these types of waste to make aviation greener.

To that end they are putting in place challenging mandates that will require airlines to use a bigger proportion of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in their tanks.

For the UK it’s going to be 10% by 2030, for the EU 6%.

Given what follows, the Guardian and the BBC must both be offering up thanks for Brexit:

With the UK likely to restrict the use of animal products and used cooking oils, flights that refuel across Britain will be likely to have only small amounts of animal-derived material in their engines.

In the EU, airlines will have a 6% sustainable aviation fuel target for 2030 of which 1.2% must come from e-kerosene. Assuming the remaining 4.8% is derived entirely by animal fat, that would require around 400 pigs per transatlantic flight.

Yet another dilemma

And that’s not all.

Among those industries who might have to source different ingredients if aviation consumes a greater share of animal fat are pet food manufacturers.

They currently utilise a significant amount of the better quality animal by-products to help feed the UK’s 38 million pets.

“These are really valuable ingredients for us and they are hard to replace, and they’re put to good use already in a very sustainable way,” said Nicole Paley, deputy chief executive of UK Pet Food, the manufacturers’ trade association.

“So actually diverting these ingredients to biofuels is actually creating another problem. It would put us in competition with the aviation industry. And when it comes to the purse strings of the aviation sector, the pet food industry would find it really difficult to compete.”…

…Many in the biofuel industry are concerned that the proposed changes might also see animal fats diverted from one form of transport to another.

“If you make a big incentive for use of these lipids, animal fats, and used cooking oils, in aviation, it will inevitably take it away from other things,” said Dickon Posnett from Argent Energy, a waste-based biodiesel producer in the UK and Europe.

“So if you want to increase aviation sustainability, at the expense of truck sustainability, then crack on. But that’s a decision for the government to make.”

Conclusion

Every “net zero” solution seems to cause problems. The Law of Unintended Consequences applies to net zero as ruthlessly as it does to everything else in life.

13 Comments

  2. This won’t get off the ground. It’s racist. Muslims will be forced to give up air travel. A rasher solution to reducing emissions from flights I just cannot imagine.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Prince Harry wants the travel industry to reduce its aviation emissions. Shortly after he was criticised for using private jets at least six times in a month – first to fly from the UK to Sicily and back for a secretive gathering of climate-concerned celebrities (at which he showed his green credentials by delivering his speech barefoot), then to and from Ibiza for a holiday, then to and from Nice to stay at Elton John’s mansion on Mont Boron – he founded Travalyst*, a non-profit something-or-other whose initial motto was ‘Travel as a catalyst for good’ and is now ‘Changing the Way We Travel for Good’.

    When it comes to SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), Travalyst agrees with the Graun article that Mark quoted above. It reckons there isn’t – and perhaps never will be – enough available to make much of a difference.

    So what to do instead? Ban private jets, perhaps? No, the solution will be found by…

    …convening leading industry players in a pre-competitive coalition to collaborate on bringing consistent sustainability information to the mainstream for the first time.’

    Wot?

    The Travalyst Coalition works collaboratively to unify sustainability reporting – starting with accommodation and aviation, but ultimately across all verticals – and make this information part of the customer experience when booking a holiday.

    Wot?

    When you book a holiday, Travalyst’s pre-competitive coalition will make sure that CO2e estimates are available for each of your possible flights, that’s what it means. (Your accommodation? You’ll be told whether your holiday hotel has LED lightbulbs, double glazing, etc.)

    That’ll sort it, Prince Harry. Apocalypse denied. Well done, Your Highness.

    And may I say that your teeth look lovely these days? Did you use a Magic Eraser?

    ===
    *Travalyst’s latest blogpost (by Tilly Windsor – presumably no relation to Harry) puffs some imminent ‘green’ festivals in Europe.

    https://travalyst.org/blog/5-green-festivals-worth-checking-out/

    One of them is Boom Festival, a notorious annual drug-fuelled rave in Portugal. (No doubt some people will see pigs flying there.)

    Another is Green Gathering, an English hippy festival that moved to Wales and has long been a favourite hang-out for climate activists – so favourite that its organisers reckon that an undercover cop (Kennedy/Stone) might have engineered its bankruptcy in the noughties.

    Here’s XR’s founder Gail Bradrook on what she learned at a Green Gathering:

    So there’s some very wonderful herbalist witches called the Seed Sisters that I got to hang out with in the summer at Green Gathering. And they have rediscovered the flying ointment, which is the ointment that we believe would have been, if you had it, pretty much guaranteed to see you burnt as a witch, right? And witchcraft comes with some sexual energy, I don’t think always, but that’s part of the magic; and that the way you take that. So that has 15 different herbs in their reconstitution of this medicine, I guess, or magic potion. And I don’t know if people know, but you take it through your vagina, with a broom handle, and then you fly! And that’s where the witches flying comes from. Not that I’ve done that with a broom handle or necessarily recommend that.

    Flying ointment? Sounds useful. Prince Harry. Perhaps that’s what Travalyst should be using rather than bafflegab and waffle.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Of course Jaime it won’t get off the ground. Remind yourself that the most popular British pig breed is the Landrace, hardly a name appropriate for aviation.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. With the current anti animal consumption in Germany how will they fulfil any commitments to pig fuel ? The Germans are certainly eating plenty of meat here in Spain !

    Like

  6. “UK airports say they can reach net zero and still expand. Is it just pie in the sky?
    Gwyn Topham
    Despite the Climate Change Committee’s warnings to stop growing capacity, Gatwick is gearing up for another try at a second runway”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/02/uk-airports-say-they-can-reach-net-zero-and-still-expand-is-it-just-pie-in-the-sky

    So what bit of “no new airport capacity” did airports not understand? The Climate Change Committee (CCC) spelled it out again on Wednesday: flying accounted for 7% of UK carbon emissions last year, the trend is upwards, and more airport capacity is “incompatible” with national net zero targets.

    Of course, they’ve said it before: but as the committee noted in its 2023 progress report, airports have since have been racing to expand. This time, hammering it home, the CCC says that no expansion at all should go ahead until the government sorts out a proper way to manage it.

    Until then, airports are dashing for a share of the growth that the industry’s own roadmap deems “sustainable”, thanks to the magic beans of future technologies and offsetting….

    …Now, though, there is fresh magic: SAFs, or sustainable aviation fuels. High on the promise of SAFs, aviation’s “green” advocates are now openly rejecting the CCC’s advice on capacity in favour of their own questionable roadmaps.

    The industry-funded body Sustainable Aviation said it was “more confident than ever that we can decarbonise without the need to artificially limit demand … and grow by more than the 25% modelled by the CCC without limiting airport expansion”. Heathrow says it has “always been clear that expansion will only ever be delivered within strict environmental limits”, but claims that “demand management would be a blunt, ineffective attempt to curb emissions”….

    Like

  7. “Carbon-free flights promised ‘within two years'”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-66205965

    An impressive headline, but lots and lots of caveats. Along the way we read this:

    At Bath University, Prof Tim Mays has been studying hydrogen for thirty years. He runs the UK Hydrogen Research Hub which has just been awarded £11m to explore how hydrogen can help combat climate change.

    He explained: “At the moment people make it by treating natural gas with steam, which is about as unsustainable as it gets.”

    Academia seems to be receiving lots and lots of money from the taxpayer in connection with net zero. It’s not surprising that academia is a big advocate for this stuff.

    Like

  8. “Sunak defies net zero ban on new airports
    Government to rebuff Climate Change Committee’s advice amid backlash against green policies”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/rishi-sunak-reject-net-zero-demand-airport-expansion/

    …Rishi Sunak will face down the Government’s climate advisers over demands for ministers to halt the expansion of airports, The Telegraph can disclose.

    In one of the most significant moves yet of the Prime Minister’s shift to approaching net zero in a “proportionate and pragmatic” way, the Government will reject the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) formal advice that all airport expansions must be halted.

    The move comes days after Mr Sunak appointed Claire Coutinho, one of his closest political allies, as Net Zero Secretary, amid a growing backlash among Tory MPs over the Government’s climate policies and the cost they are adding to consumer bills.

    Ministers believe airport growth will have a “key role” in boosting the UK’s global links and helping to grow the economy…

    …Ministers are putting their hope in the rapid development of green aviation fuels to decarbonise the sector. This week, Ms Coutinho will unveil a proposed legal duty on the Government to draw up plans to subsidise so-called sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)….

    And pigs might fly. This is so daft. More taxpayers’ money being wasted. And in the absence of repealing (or significantly amending) the Climate Change Act, this virtually guarantees that the usual suspects will rush to Court to sue the Government.

    Like

  9. “Virgin Atlantic granted permit for historic 100% sustainable aviation fuel flight”

    https://www.virgin.com/about-virgin/latest/virgin-atlantic-granted-permit-for-historic-100-sustainable-aviation-fuel

    Virgin Atlantic’s historic 100% sustainable aviation fuel flight has been granted a permit to fly by the Civil Aviation Authority.

    Virgin Atlantic plans to fly across the Atlantic from London Heathrow to New York JFK on 28 November 2023 to test and showcase the feasibility of flying on 100% SAF.

    SAF is fuel derived from non-petroleum based renewable sources that is capable of being used as a replacement for, or blended with, kerosene. SAF can currently be used in jet engines to a maximum blend of 50% with traditional kerosene without the need for any modifications. There are several processes to produce SAF, including algae, synthesised fuels from hydrogen waste, or from directly capturing carbon dioxide. When fully replacing kerosene, SAF could reduce lifecycle car…

    …Led by Virgin Atlantic and partly funded by Department for Transport, preparation for the flight has involved a consortium of companies comprised of Boeing, Rolls-Royce, BP, and others, to demonstrate SAF as an alternative to regular jet fuel….

    …Virgin Atlantic were awarded up to £1 million UK government funding in December 2022, following a challenge from the Department for Transport to support the industry in achieving the first transatlantic flight on an aircraft powered by 100% SAF….

    Is there any aspect of net zero that isn’t costing the taxpayer?

    Like

  10. I’m starting to think that the world is going mad:

    “Can UK’s ‘jet zero’ hopes take off with a plane fuelled by used cooking oil?
    Experts debate whether Tuesday’s transatlantic trip heralds a greener way to fly or a misguided stunt”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/26/can-uks-jet-zero-hopes-take-off-with-a-plane-fuelled-by-used-cooking-oil

    Certainly the UK government is start staring mad:

    …The UK government and aviation industry hope the transatlantic journey, funded with £1m of taxpayer’s money, will demonstrate that greener flying is possible and its 2050 “jet zero” aspirations are more than hot air….

    …Announcing £53m this month to fund nine UK projects to create SAF in different ways, from burning waste to converting CO2 and green hydrogen, the Department for Transport declared it a “milestone marker” ahead of the 100% SAF flight “making guilt-free flying a reality”….

    Like

  12. “Gloucestershire firm making jet fuel entirely from human poo”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-gloucestershire-67806491

    A new aviation company has developed a type of jet fuel made entirely from human sewage.

    Chemists at a lab in Gloucestershire have turned the waste into kerosene.

    Dr Sergio Lima, research director at Firefly Green Fuels, said: “What we are producing here is a fuel which is net zero.”

    Independent tests have found the fuel is nearly identical to standard fossil jet fuel.

    And that’s it. No further details supplied. What is involved? What does it cost? Is it a good idea? Dunno, and the BBC isn’t about to enlighten us.

    Like

  13. Mark – read your link & as you say no info, just a puff promo for another Green enterprise “Firefly Green Fuels”

    from the link – “Chemists at a lab in Gloucestershire have turned the waste into kerosene”
    from wiki – “Kerosene is a low-viscosity, clear liquid formed from hydrocarbons obtained from the fractional distillation of petroleum between 150 and 275 °C (300 and 525 °F),”

    the BBC post head pic shows a black tarry substance pouring into vessel?

    how “made entirely from human sewage” works needs a tad more info.

    Like

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