It happened at 4am on Saturday 2nd April. A BMW, stolen perhaps, was driven too fast and failed to take the corner. As a result it crashed into the telephone junction box, sending it flying for several yards, and smashing its contents to smithereens.

Approximately 400 households woke up later that morning to discover that they lacked a landline telephone connection, and also lacked the internet service supplied in the same way. They woke up the next day to find that both services were still lacking; and did so again on the Monday, and the Tuesday, and each day that followed, until service was finally restored late in the afternoon on Tuesday 12th April, almost 11 days after the initial outage.

It may seem a small matter, and of course in many ways it is – especially against the backdrop of a brutal war in Ukraine, a cost of living crisis, an energy emergency, and so many other global problems. So why do I bother mentioning it here?

I do so because lessons should be learned. In my case, perhaps the lesson I should learn is to join the 21st century, cease sharing a smartphone with my wife, pay for one each, and make sure that each one has a generous monthly data allowance. Had that been the case when the BMW hit the junction box, life in the Hodgson household might have gone on as before – I could have learned from the kind advice offered to me about setting up a wi-fi hotspot from my smartphone and using Bluetooth to connect my laptop to it. As it is, however, I was receiving texts from my smartphone provider after a few short days telling me that I was getting close to exceeding my monthly data allowance (though I was less than halfway through the month). Having learned how to set up the wi-fi hotspot, I discovered that there was no point doing so, since any use of the laptop in this way would rip through the small amount of smartphone data still available to me, in no time.

Perhaps I should also buy a TV licence (though the jury’s still out on that one). My wife and I haven’t missed mainstream TV at all, not least since there is so much to watch on You Tube. However, You Tube viewing is dependent on the internet, so when we lost the internet, we also lost our limited TV entertainment. Perhaps we have too many eggs in the internet basket.

So much for me. The bigger lessons should be learned by our politicians, and those who would dictate the UK’s energy policy. Fortunately, it was the telephone and internet that was denied to me (and to around 400 other households) for just over a week and a half, and not our electricity supply. However, as I pointed out in Capability Downi, the UK’s electricity supply is vulnerable to storms, and when it encounters problems, customers can be denied electricity for prolonged periods. When that happens, more than minor inconvenience is encountered. UK industry (what’s left of it) and other businesses can grind to a halt. Shops, with electronic tills, cease to be able to serve customers. Electric vehicles will be left powerless. Homeowners potentially find themselves left with no ability to heat their homes or to cook. People who rely on mobile ‘phones (an increasing proportion of the population), and who don’t use landlines, will soon find their ‘phones running out of charge. Of course, their internet connection will have failed, so they will have no ability to communicate with anyone other than their immediate neighbours (verbally), or by writing letters and resorting to the postal service again.

It isn’t just storms that can create havoc for the electricity network. Increasing reliance on offshore wind turbines leaves supply vulnerable to bad actors. If it takes BT Openreach eleven days to mend a broken junction box in good weather in an accessible urban location, how long might it take the authorities to mend a power cable linking offshore wind farms to the mainland, if the cable has been deliberately severed in several places by a hostile submarine? In the middle of winter? What of an attack (physical or in the form of cyber warfare) on the National Grid?

We shouldn’t pretend that such things are in the realm of fantasy.

On 22nd March 2022 an articleii appeared on the BBC website under the heading “The three Russian cyber-attacks the West most fears”. It told us that:

Ukraine is often described as the hacking playground of Russia, which has carried out attacks there seemingly to test techniques and tools.

In 2015 Ukraine’s electricity grid was disrupted by a cyber-attack called BlackEnergy, which caused a short-term blackout for 80,000 customers of a utility company in western Ukraine.

Nearly exactly a year later another cyber-attack known as Industroyer took out power for about one-fifth of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, for about an hour.

The US and EU named and blamed Russian military hackers for the attacks.

The article went on to try to reassure readers that:

…no cyber-attack against a power grid has resulted in an extended interruption of power supply. Executing cyber-attacks on complex engineering systems in a reliable way is extremely difficult and achieving a prolonged damaging effect is sometimes impossible due to in-built protections.

I hope that confidence is justified. Personally, I’m not entirely reassured.

A denial of electricity supply is problematic now. How much worse will it be when we are all forced to drive electric cars, to heat our homes using heat pumps, when gas cookers have been replaced by electric ones, and when coal fires and multi-fuel stoves (aka log burners) have been banned?

No doubt the Government would insist that they are already onto this issue, and that the recent publication of “British Energy Security Strategy”iii shows that they are taking the issue seriously. A 38 page document, which contains perhaps 25 pages of “hard” policy planning (some of which strikes me as borderline fantasy), doesn’t convince me either. Yes, the Government will argue that they are seeking to diversify our energy sources – new nuclear, offshore wind, low carbon hydrogen (yeah, right), “jet zero and green ships”, carbon capture (yeah, right) to allow us to utilise our own oil and gas. However, this really misses the point. Everything is aimed at diversifying the sources of energy that will create the electricity we are all to rely on for pretty much everything. It’s a strange type of diversification that still puts all the eggs in one basket – electricity in this case.

Just as I now need to think long and hard about how I might ensure continued telephone and internet service next time a BMW takes out the local junction box, the powers that be need to wake up, grow up, and think much more seriously about energy security in the UK. How will our lives be if the National Grid fails us, especially if it does so in the middle of winter? It doesn’t matter if such a failure is caused by accident or on purpose. If we don’t have electricity, and we need electricity for pretty much everything, then we’re right royally stuffed.

Endnotes

i https://cliscep.com/2021/12/02/capability-down/

ii https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60841924

iii https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067835/british-energy-security-strategy-web.pdf

25 Comments

  1. anybody who thinks gas boilers for heating will be replaced by heat pumps any time within the next 20yrs is just dreaming (IMHO).

    but we do seem have a lot of dreamers in charge.

    Like

  3. Oh, b*lls. My proof-reading skills obviously aren’t what they were. Thanks for spotting it. I will edit it later.

    Like

  4. “On 22nd March 2022 an article appeared on the BBC website ….”

    Gotta love Aunty’s:

    “Nearly exactly a year later ….”

    Guess the redundant adverb? 🤣🤣🤣

    Like

  7. I’m a bit late in spotting this, from the beginning of March:

    “Satellite cyber attack paralyzes 11GW of German wind turbines”

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/01/satellite-cyber-attack-paralyzes-11gw-of-german-wind-turbines/

    “German wind turbine operators have reportedly been confronted with a fault in the satellite connection of their systems. Dominik Bertrams, MD of wind farm operator Tobi Windenergie Verwaltungs GmbH, yesterday announced on Twitter the remote monitoring and control of thousands of wind turbines had failed.

    With the outage having occurred between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m. on Thursday – when the Russian army invaded Ukraine – Bertrams suspected a cyber attack by Russian hackers. The reason for the failure has not yet been clarified.

    It would appear unlikely, however, Russian hackers directly targeted German wind turbines. Commenting on the incident to the Handelsblatt business newspaper, a spokesperson for the German Wind Energy Association said the disruption was due to the failure of the KA-Sat communication satellite belonging to Viasat. An article in weekly news magazine Der Spiegel stated the US military’s military communications services also run through Viasat satellites.

    Those reports would suggest failure of the wind turbine control systems could be the collateral damage from a cyber attack on a primarily military target.”

    Still, whether they were a primary target or (perhaps more likely) suffered collateral damage, policy makers should take note.

    Like

  8. This is what it’s come to:

    “National Grid will pay households to shift electricity use to avoid blackouts
    Scheme encourages customers with smart meters to use less energy at peak times and reduce carbon emissions”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/27/national-grid-will-pay-households-to-shift-electricity-use-to-avoid-blackouts

    “National Grid plans to reduce the risk of blackouts this winter by paying consumers to use less electricity at peak times, it has emerged.

    The electricity network operator is racing to set up a scheme that will enable households with smart meters to choose to cut how much energy they use when supplies are low.

    Initial proposals drawn up by National Grid’s electricity system operator (ESO) say that households could be paid up to £6 a kilowatt hour in credit instead of paying out 28.34p a kilowatt hour, The Times reported.

    The move comes as the government looks for ways to secure extra energy supplies this winter and limit usage by consumers.

    The business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, hopes to broker further deals to extend the life of Britain’s last remaining coal-fired power stations through the winter, after keeping West Burton A in Nottinghamshire in operation.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put further strain on already stretched energy supplies. Ministers are concerned that – in a worst-case scenario – Britain could experience rolling blackouts this winter….”.

    And that’s before we all have to use heat pumps and electric ovens and drive electric cars…

    Like

  9. “Nord Stream attacks highlight vulnerability of undersea pipelines in west
    Julian Borger
    on the HMS Queen Elizabeth
    As Norway steps up seabed security, experts say underwater cables carrying world’s internet traffic are also at risk”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/nord-stream-attacks-highlight-vulnerability-undersea-pipelines-west

    Yes, oil and gas pipelines and internet cables may be at risk. But surely so are the interconnectors between the UK and Europe and also the HVDC cables between the UK mainland and windfarms. Why no mention of them?

    Like

  10. “Damaged cable leaves Shetland cut off from mainland”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-63326102

    Communications to Shetland have been completely shut down after a subsea cable was damaged.

    Police have declared a major incident after the south subsea cable between the islands and the mainland was cut.

    The force said phones, internet and computers were not usable and that officers were patrolling to try to reassure residents.

    Repairs to another cable connecting Shetland and Faroe are ongoing after it was damaged last week.

    Like

  12. “Naval expert warns on ‘increasingly probable’ offshore wind farm terror drone strikes
    Study by Polish Navy officer Tomasz Chyła urges use of air defence systems and patrol vessels to guard against sabotage in wake of Nord Stream gas pipeline strike”

    https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/naval-expert-warns-on-increasingly-probable-offshore-wind-farm-terror-drone-strikes/2-1-1362956

    Offshore wind farms are “increasingly probable” targets of terrorist attacks – for example by aerial or submarine drones – and defence systems are urgently needed to protect them as critical national infrastructure, a Polish study warns.

    The sabotage explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in September and the “current geopolitical situation” have highlighted the threat to offshore wind projects, lieutenant commander Tomasz Chyła, an expert at the Ignacy Lukasiewicz Institute for Energy Policy in Rzeszów and lecturer at the Polish Naval Academy, said in an analysis of the issue.

    Like

  14. Bill, I think there are cogent arguments for and against Nordstream having been sabotaged by any of Ukraine, Poland, Russia, or USA. Whoever did it, the fact of its sabotage makes a nonsense of UK politicians claiming that things like offshore wind energy enhances our energy security. On the contrary, it increases our vulnerability.

    Liked by 2 people

  17. Thanks Mark. It is today – or at least Ian Rons is. Toby Young wasn’t as critical yesterday, saying “Seymour Hersh’s piece is worth reading in full.” Or maybe Young now feels he wasn’t so clued up yesterday! Meanwhile Steve Mc’s pinned tweet points to Independent Video Evidence Confirms Key Part of Sy Hersh’s Report on the Attack on Nord Stream 2 by Larry Johnson. After showing the YouTube video that is claimed to corroborate one part of Hersh’s story, Johnson writes:

    There still are some people in the intelligence community who are patriots and are alarmed by Biden’s lawless behavior. I imagine that the Biden Administration will launch a witch hunt for the intelligence officers who alerted Sy Hersh to this story. According to the Constitution, only Congress has the power to declare war on another country. Joe Biden has usurped that authority and carried out an act of war against a NATO ally (Germany). The potential ramifications of this act include the heightened risk of the U.S. starting a shooting war with Russia.

    Strong feelings all round. But that’s as it should be. The debate is good.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. It’s not often you see Steve Mc use the phrase "herring farts" in a tweet exactly the same minute that Geoff Chambers does the same in one of his. More to learn every day 😉 And if you look back at the chain of Steve’s tweets he accepts that Hersh may have some details wrong, perhaps because his source deliberately muddied the water to protect himself (or herself).

    Liked by 1 person

  19. “UK-Norway gas pipelines face threat as Russia vows ‘punishment’ for Nord Stream leaks”

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1733341/uk-norway-gas-pipeline-threat-russia-punishment-nord-stream-leaks

    Britain’s critical energy supplies could be under threat, as Russia has threatened retaliation against the West over the alleged sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline leaks.

    Last year, a number of leaks were discovered in both Nord Stream 1 and 2, both of which could transport massive quantities of natural gas from Russia to Germany through undersea pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Experts believe that the leaks were most likely sabotage, with the US and Russia both blaming each other for the act. Now, Kremlin, officials have said that the world should “know the truth” about the sabotage.

    They noted that those who were found responsible for the leaks should be “punished” after an investigative journalist accused US Navy divers of blowing up the pipelines with explosives.

    In a blog post, Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh cited an unidentified source, which was dismissed by the White House as “utterly false and complete fiction”.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised Mr Hersh’s post, saying the story deserved more attention.

    He told reporters: “The world must find out the truth about who carried out this act of sabotage. This is a very dangerous precedent: if someone did it once, they can do it again anywhere in the world.”

    The Russian mouthpiece called for “an open international investigation of this unprecedented attack on international critical infrastructure”, adding: “It is impossible to leave this without uncovering those responsible and punishing them.”

    Russia has repeatedly accused the West of sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines, as last October, Moscow’s Ministry of Defence accused Royal Navy personnel of blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, an assertion that London said was false.

    Following this accusation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Russia is considering what “further steps” should be taken, raising fears that the UK’s energy could now be at risk.

    Given these threats, experts fear that Russia could use “retaliate” by targeting Western undersea pipelines and cables, which could be devastating for the UK’s energy security, the country relies on exports from Norway for 60 percent of its gas…

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised Mr Hersh’s post, saying the story deserved more attention.

    I can’t help agreeing with Peskov there. Jeffrey Sachs wasn’t the only one pointing to the eerie silence from the US MSM two days after the article. (Later they also discuss another very little covered matter: what the former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett has recently revealed about the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations being kyboshed by Washington in March 2022.) But the situation in Germany is apparently different now, according to a German friend of Alexander Mercouris, who says people are discussing the Hersh piece. Right at the end of that video Mercouris moots the idea that the breakdown between Olaf Scholz and his defence minister (and leader of the German Greens) Annalena Baerbock could perhaps have been exacerbated because she got advance warning of the operation and he didn’t. The Telegraph’s Olaf Scholz furious after minister ‘went behind back’ over Ukraine tanks has a different, but possibly consonant, take on the disharmony. It is to me striking how warlike the traditional anti-war and anti-American German Greens have become.

    Like

  21. “Putin attempting to sabotage North Sea energy assets, Netherlands warns”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/20/ftse-100-markets-live-news-uk-house-prices-eu-energy/

    Russia has been secretly collecting intelligence to sabotage Netherlands’ North Sea energy infrastructure.

    A Russian ship collecting intelligence on energy infrastructure was discovered at an offshore wind farm in the North Sea, according to the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MVID).

    Dutch marine and coast guard ships escorted the vessel from the North Sea before any sabotage effort was successful, said Jan Swillens, MVID’s head general.

    He said: “We saw in recent months Russian actors tried to uncover how the energy system works in the North Sea. It is the first time we have seen this.

    “Russia is mapping how our wind parks in the North Sea function. They are very interested in how they could sabotage the energy infrastructure.”

    Critical offshore systems – including internet cables, gas pies and windmill farms – have become the target of Russian sabotage operations.

    Dutch intelligence agencies MIVD and AIVD, in a joint report published today, said: “Russia is secretly charting this infrastructure and is undertaking activities which indicate preparations for disruption and sabotage.”…

    Like

  24. It has always struck me as strange that anyone could suggest that further investment in renewables is an investment in energy security. The only crumb of comfort is that it is a climate change denier’s myth that these windfarms are visually obtrusive, and so the Russians will have the devil’s job finding them.

    Liked by 2 people

  25. This will supply energy security?

    “LionLink: North Sea power line to connect wind farms to UK”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65375943

    A huge electricity cable project in the North Sea could provide green power to 1.8 million UK homes in plans announced by the UK and Dutch governments.

    It would connect to offshore wind farms and transfer electricity between the two countries.

    European nations are under pressure to fulfil climate promises to end reliance on fossil fuels and to improve energy security.

    The deal was announced on Monday at an energy summit in Ostend, Belgium.

    The power line, called LionLink, is being developed by the National Grid and Dutch electricity network TenneT and could be running by the early 2030s.

    The government claims LionLink will carry 1.8GW of electricity, giving it the largest capacity of any cross-border electricity line in the world.

    An existing cross-border connection between Germany and Denmark carries 0.4GW.

    “We are bolstering our energy security and sending a strong signal to Putin’s Russia that the days of his dominance over global power markets are well and truly over,” said UK Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps.

    The reference to Putin is particularly ironic given the BBC article I linked to two comments above, which was headlined “Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage” and which claimed:

    Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations.

    The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

    It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

    They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage.

    Like

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