The early months of 2020 were a heady time for fossil fuel-hating climate worriers. Never mind that a new disease, that would go on to kill millions, was sweeping the planet. Never mind that huge swathes of humanity were effectively suffering house arrest. The roads were quiet. Emissions were falling. And oil was dead.

On 1st April 2020 the Guardian was ecstatic, crowing: “Analysts say the coronavirus and a savage price war means the oil and gas sector will never be the same again”. That was the sub-heading to an articlei that, in fairness, did contemplate the possibility that the oil industry might bounce back after the end of the pandemic, but it very much looked forward to it not doing so.

Whatever happens, the industry will never be the same again after the double whammy of the pandemic and price war. “The companies that emerge from the crisis will not be the ones that went into it,” said Carbon Tracker’s Bond. “We will see write-downs, restructuring and radical change.”

Less than three weeks later and the excitement was almost palpable. This time the headline to an articleii in the Guardian (on 20th April 2020) was “Oil prices dip below zero as producers forced to pay to dispose of excess”. Wow. Oil had become a liability! Better still:

Historically weak oil markets are likely to bring lower prices for drivers at service station forecourts, but the price collapse will also hurt pension savings which are often invested in major oil companies through funds which track equity markets. The oil price crisis has already wiped billions from the market value of the largest oil companies, many of which will not be able to pay dividends if the market rout drags on.

Fast Forward Seventeen Months

As I write this, in the evening of the last day in September 2021, Brent Crude is priced at $78.39 a barrel. Demand for oil has bounced bank with a vengeance, we have a shortage and queues at petrol stations, and the online headline in the Guardian this evening is rather different, the latest articleiii being headlined “Nearly half of UK’s independent petrol stations still lack fuel – Petrol Retailers Association say fuel is being bought faster than it is getting restocked”.

The story continues to be one of people being desperate to get their hands on fuel:

The Petrol Retailers Association said drivers were continuing to buy fuel faster than it could be restocked, despite the insistence from chief secretary to the Treasury, Simon Clarke, that the situation was “back under control”.

Things are also getting fraught:

The PRA chief executive, Gordon Balmer, said motorists were subjecting staff at forecourts to unacceptable levels of abuse and violence.

Imagine how motorists will react when they’ve all been forced to switch to electric cars, the wind isn’t blowing, the sun isn’t shining, and the French are playing hard ball about supplies via the interconnector. Politicians (of all parties), you have been warned.

Reality Hits Home

It should be fairly obvious by now that people, especially having spent months locked down, don’t want to be subject to ongoing restrictions any more. They want to be able to fly to sunny climes for their holidays. They want to fill up the fuel tanks in their cars and drive where they like. They don’t want empty shelves in shops. If they didn’t mind doing without we wouldn’t see examples of panic buying time and time again. And one Guardian journalist has come clean and accepted that the only way he and his fellow climate worriers can achieve their aims is by reducing economic activity.

On 29th September 2021 George Monbiot’s articleiv appeared in the Guardian under the heading “‘Green growth’ doesn’t exist – less of everything is the only way to avert catastrophe”.

Having written “Saving the Planet by Trashing it”valmost six months ago, in which I pointed out that for many eco-worriors “…[a]ny environmental degradation is acceptable, even welcome, it seems, if it’s “renewable”. The end justifies the means…” I find it rather refreshing to read these words in the Guardian:

When we box up this predicament, our efforts to solve one aspect of the crisis exacerbate another. For example, if we were to build sufficient direct air capture machines to make a major difference to atmospheric carbon concentrations, this would demand a massive new wave of mining and processing for the steel and concrete. The impact of such construction pulses travels around the world. To take just one component, the mining of sand to make concrete is trashing hundreds of precious habitats. It’s especially devastating to rivers, whose sand is highly sought in construction. Rivers are already being hit by drought, the disappearance of mountain ice and snow, our extraction of water, and pollution from farming, sewage and industry. Sand dredging, on top of these assaults, could be a final, fatal blow.

Or look at the materials required for the electronics revolution that will, apparently, save us from climate breakdown. Already, mining and processing the minerals required for magnets and batteries is laying waste to habitats and causing new pollution crises. Now, as Jonathan Watts’s terrifying article in the Guardian this week shows, companies are using the climate crisis as justification for extracting minerals from the deep ocean floor, long before we have any idea of what the impacts might be.

…Everywhere, governments seek to ramp up the economic load, talking of “unleashing our potential” and “supercharging our economy”. Boris Johnson insists that “a global recovery from the pandemic must be rooted in green growth”. But there is no such thing as green growth. Growth is wiping the green from the Earth.

We have no hope of emerging from this full-spectrum crisis unless we dramatically reduce economic activity. Wealth must be distributed – a constrained world cannot afford the rich – but it must also be reduced. Sustaining our life-support systems means doing less of almost everything. But this notion – that should be central to a new, environmental ethics – is secular blasphemy.

Now, George and I have had our differencesvi, but on this occasion I feel he has identified a very real truth. There is no such thing as green growth. Green jobs are pie in the sky too. Pretty much every attempt to replace fossil fuels with “renewables” or to create some sci-fi “carbon capture” scheme, are both expensive and environmentally damaging.

The choice facing humanity is not the choice that will be offered us at COP26, between “climate chaos” or a “green revolution”. No, it’s a choice between continued use of fossil fuels and a dramatic reduction in our standard of living. Given the choice between CO2 emissions, and the environmental devastation caused by attempts to reduce CO2 emissions, I go with the environmentally-friendly life-enhancing choice every time, and I suspect so would most people when the choice is put to them in those terms. Does anyone really think those abusive panic-buying petrol forecourt gas-guzzling drivers want us to do less of almost everything? Does anyone really think people will be happy to pay more for the fuel for their motor vehicles, for the fuel for their homes, to be told they must travel less, possess less, and accept empty supermarket shelves and less choice?

No, although George’s essential premise is right, if it’s put to the people as he puts it, the “green revolution” will be stopped dead in its tracks. Oil isn’t dead after all. Long live oil.

Footnotes

i https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/01/the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-broken-will-a-cleaner-climate-be-the-result

iihttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/oil-prices-sink-to-20-year-low-as-un-sounds-alarm-on-to-covid-19-relief-fund

iii https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/30/half-uk-independent-petrol-stations-out-of-fuel

ivhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/29/green-growth-economic-activity-environment

v https://cliscep.com/2021/04/11/saving-the-planet-by-trashing-it/

vi https://cliscep.com/2021/07/08/losing-the-plot/

65 Comments

  1. Andres Stuttaford wrote at National Review:

    “Instead of looking at these alternative approaches, the EU, the U.K., and, soon enough, the U.S., seem set on what is looking more and more like a headlong rush into disaster. To understand why this might be, it is important to understand that for many climate warriors a “bloody hard” transition is a feature, not a bug.

    Concentrating on resilience and adaptation do not follow the millenarian narrative that is an unmistakable subtext of the message now being sent out by many climate warriors, whether inside government, linked to government, or outside it.

    Underpinned by the expectation of apocalypse, this narrative, which has repeatedly demonstrated its dangerously persuasive power over the centuries, is based on the thought that a wicked humanity faces punishment and must, with the assistance of a morally superior, enlightened vanguard, be made to change its dreadful (often self-indulgent) behavior.

    Adaptation and resilience, by contrast, offer the prospect that our species will muddle on through, living pretty much as it has been doing, except even better, and without donning the hairshirt integral to so many climate warriors’ faith. Theirs has the characteristics of a religion, and there is little that is original about it.

    Pointless asceticism comes with the territory.”

    Stuttaford’s essay:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/09/the-gathering-storm-but-with-not-enough-wind-europes-energy-mess-gets-worse-a-lesson-the-u-s-looks-set-to-ignore/
    My synopsis:

    Updated Sept. 28 Europe Energy Stress Test Under Way

    Liked by 2 people

  2. It was said of George Orwell that he couldn’t blow his nose without thinking of the condition of the workers in the handkerchief factory. Monbiot can’t wipe his bottom without worrying about the loss of biodiversity in the Scandinavian forest. He once agonised publicly about how he was obliged to buy a car because of the impossibility of getting from Oxford to Cambridge by public transport. (Oh, the sufferings of the journalist with two visiting professorships at once.)

    I agree with him though that we all of us consume far too much stuff. All of us except people trying to save for a mortgage on the minimum wage, or bring up children in a damp council flat, or run a business when half your clients can’t get on a bus without a passport and are at home clicking on Amazon… So not really all of us then. Just the chavs with their two cars and gadget-addicted kids. Not all of us; more all of them.

    I came to the same conclusion as George about consumer society at the age of eight, from spending Saturday afternoons being dragged round the shops to buy a new school blazer or look at curtains. Did George’s dad bundle the family into the Ford Prefect and head off to the shops every Saturday afternoon? As Chairman of the Conservative Party, possibly not.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. I was pleasantly surprised by an opinion piece in last weekend’s FT titled: “Gas crisis shows why we must stop demonising fossil fuels” with a sub-heading: “Whether we like it or not the green transition involves long term reliance on carbon-heavy energy”. The writer is the editor-in-chief of Money Week.
    It included the fact, familiar to sceptics, that fossil fuels supply approx the same share of the world’s primary energy as they did 10 years ago and went on to the obvious inference that renewables aren’t even keeping up with the growth in demand.
    A bit of solid common sense commentary in a paper which usually follows the green script.
    Straws in the wind, perhaps?

    Liked by 3 people

  6. “Europe risks €87 billion in stranded fossil gas assets, report reveals”

    Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, said that “with the EU Green Deal and the 55% target, natural gas demand in Europe needs to start declining today, otherwise we risk wasting billions of private and public funding on stranded assets. The fossil fuel era has passed – we must invest crucial public resources into reliable and cheap renewable energy that is ready today”.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/europe-risks-e87-billion-in-stranded-fossil-gas-assets-report-reveals/

    This was probably a non-controversial thing to say on the 8th of April 2021. Now? Not so much. I wonder what “reliable and cheap renewable energy” Tubiana had in mind?

    Meanwhile the obsession with insulation (including during the present motorway clown fiesta) is nothing less than an admission that the electricity of the future will be too expensive to waste.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Thanks, as always, for the interesting comments and links.

    I think this winter might be crunch time. Realisation of what the net zero obsession is causing might just be dawning on people.

    George Monbiot’s revelation is gratifying in it’s way. My views of his writing vary between irritation at what seems to me to be an utterly one-sided and loaded way of writing, which to my way of thinking stretches the truth to its limits; and astounding honesty and clear-sightedness, telling the truths that many of his fellow-travellers wouldn’t touch with a bargepole.

    In that article he’s lifted the curtain on the real agenda. Will the Tory government (a TORY government, for pity’s sake) now wake up and smell the coffee?

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Meanwhile:

    “China orders energy firms to secure winter fuel supplies at all costs
    World’s second biggest economy is grappling with power cuts that have affected industrial output”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/01/china-orders-energy-firms-to-secure-winter-fuel-supplies-at-all-costs

    “China’s central government officials have ordered the top state-owned energy companies to secure fuel supplies for winter at all costs as the country battles a power crisis that threatens to hit growth in the world’s second biggest economy.

    The vice-premier, Han Zheng, has told energy companies to make sure there is enough fuel to keep the country running and made it clear that Beijing would not tolerate blackouts, according to a report by Bloomberg.

    China has been hit by widespread power cuts that have closed or partly closed factories, hitting production and global supply chains.”

    Liked by 2 people

  9. The shortages of fossil fuels would be ameliorated immediately if all those opposed to their use stopped using and benefitting from the stuff. Today.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. “‘Green growth’ doesn’t exist – less of everything is the only way to avert catastrophe”.

    I think George Monbiot is operating under a false premise. We need more of everything to solve poverty, pandemics, asteroid strikes, little ice ages, … We even need more billionaires. If we run out of something, they can go out into space and find more.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Hi Mark, from the above post quote –

    “We have no hope of emerging from this full-spectrum crisis unless we dramatically reduce economic activity. Wealth must be distributed – a constrained world cannot afford the rich – but it must also be reduced. Sustaining our life-support systems means doing less of almost everything. But this notion – that should be central to a new, environmental ethics – is secular blasphemy.”

    anybody know what Monbiot is trying to say with this ?

    stopped reading the Guardian yrs ago as any anti comments went in the bad bin.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. dfhunter, I think his point is that rich people emit lots of CO2, so we can’t have rich people. Secondly, but more significantly for the rest of humanity, we need to do less of everything, because doing anything emits CO2, and also involves environmentally unfriendly activity – quarrying, mining, logging, etc. He seems to be firmly in the humanity is bad for the planet therefore we need to wear hair shirts group.

    Although he is a doomsday prophet to that extent, I found it encouraging that he has been brave enough to go against the politicians’ slippery mantra of talking about “green growth”, when what they are really talking about is destroying our way of life and the environment at the same time. Monbiot has come clean and simply pointed out that the concept of “green growth” is a fallacy.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Monbiot IMHO has got it dead wrong when he concludes the world cannot afford the rich. It shows a real ignorance or denial of history. Until the late nineteenth century it was the rich that employed the skilled and the wise to provide them with fashioned objects or managed and protected their wealth. The wealthy endowed centres of learning in which the necessary skills and knowledge could be developed. Without the rich would we have anything of value? Certainly the objects and knowledge of the past that we value most today were produced for the rich and super-rich.

    The only possible exception to this is the church and it’s clergy that possess valuable objects and commonly a learned personnel. But it is arguable the these personnel are, or behave like, the rich.

    There is another aspect that Monbiot seemingly ignores – that huge swaths of us are actually richer than Croesus compared to those of the past. I am comfortable in my retirement yet cannot be considered rich compared with those of my contemporaries. Yet looking around my house I know that I have possessions that even the richest of the rich of the past would sacrifice most to possess : A functioning large, flat-screen television that dispenses information and entertainment not least amongst them.

    So it is my belief that the rich are essential to provide a demand for the skilled and knowledgeable. Without the rewards of becoming rich, where would the drive to control and organise our societies come from? What value would possession of skill or knowledge have?

    Liked by 3 people

  15. Alan, I largely agree with you, especially on the point that compared to pretty much everyone who has gone before we are mostly as rich as Croesus. However, I think it’s fair to say (though his words must speak for themselves) that Monbiot isn’t really interested in how humanity is doing, his overriding concern being the state of the environment. At least that’s how I read him. By those lights, the rich are harmful, because they have rich, CO2-spewing lifestyles.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Mark, Indeed the rich are harmful because they employ armies of other humans to cater for their needs/desires. Without the rich those people would starve or would never have been born. It is probably true that the environment would recover or thrive if human populations were decreased substantially, but who is going to advocate it, let alone put it into practice. The urban Chinese attempted to do it with the one child policy, but this eventually led to worker shortages and has been abandoned. What Monbiot is suggesting is impossible. We would require several Tamerlanes.

    Liked by 2 people

  17. Alan:

    We would require several Tamerlanes.

    That got me reaching for Wikipedia:

    Timur invaded Baghdad in June 1401. After the capture of the city, 20,000 of its citizens were massacred. Timur ordered that every soldier should return with at least two severed human heads to show him. When they ran out of men to kill, many warriors killed prisoners captured earlier in the campaign, and when they ran out of prisoners to kill, many resorted to beheading their own wives.

    There’s more, in a similar vein. Best avoided, methinks.

    Like

  18. “UK industry could face shutdowns as wholesale gas price hits record high
    Steel, chemicals and fertiliser industries warn of difficult winter unless government takes emergency action”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/06/uk-industry-could-face-shutdowns-as-wholesale-gas-price-hits-record-high

    “…Paul Pearcy, federation co-ordinator at trade body British Glass, said companies that make windows could be forced to revert to powering their furnaces with polluting fuels that had been abandoned.

    “Some of our members still have heavy fuel oil on site, having moved over to gas,” he said. “Some of them are seriously considering moving back to that because of the price of gas….”.

    So much for oil being dead. Meanwhile, in Cloud Cuckoo Land:

    “…The business department said: “We are determined to secure a competitive future for our energy-intensive industries and in recent years have provided them with extensive support, including more than £2bn to help with the costs of energy and to protect jobs.

    “Our exposure to volatile global gas prices underscores the importance of our plan to build a strong, home-grown renewable energy sector to further reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.””

    Like

  19. “Energy crisis reignites demand for oil, threatening climate targets, says IEA
    International Energy Agency warns shortage of gas and coal could trigger oil market rebound”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/14/energy-crisis-reignites-demand-for-oil-and-poses-threat-to-climate-targets-says-iea

    “The worldwide energy crisis has reignited demand for oil, posing a threat to the world’s climate ambitions and the global economic recovery from Covid-19, according to the International Energy Agency.

    The global energy watchdog said the shortage of gas and coal across the biggest economies, which has caused energy markets to rocket, could trigger a faster-than-expected rebound in the oil market and drive demand to above pre-pandemic levels as soon as next year.

    The Paris-based agency said this would greatly increase costs for energy-hungry industries which, along with power outages, could lead to lower industrial activity and a slowdown in the world’s economic recovery from the pandemic.

    “Record coal and gas prices as well as rolling blackouts are prompting the power sector and energy-intensive industries to turn to oil to keep the lights on and operations humming,” the IEA said.”

    What a difference 18 months makes.

    Like

  20. “Oil hits multi-year highs on tight global supply”

    https://www.rt.com/business/538351-oil-hits-multi-year-highs/

    “Oil prices rallied above $86 a barrel on Monday, extending multi-year gains after Saudi Arabia urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stick to a cautious approach to raising global output.

    Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 71 cents, or 0.8%, to $86.24 a barrel, continuing growth after seven consecutive weekly gains. Earlier in the session, Brent price brushed $86.43 a barrel, reaching its highest level since October 2018.

    US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 87 cents, or 1%, to $84.63 a barrel at 3:42am GMT, after 1.5% growth on Friday. It also touched its highest price since 2014 at $84.76 earlier in the day….

    …Oil prices have more than doubled over the past year as the global economy struggles to recover from the pandemic-induced crisis. While energy consumption has surged and storage has run low, OPEC+ decided earlier this year to raise its monthly crude production by 400,000 barrels. Despite repeated calls to boost output further, the oil alliance has so far resisted pressure to do so. The group is next scheduled to meet on November 4.”

    Like

  21. What a difference 18 months make:

    “US to release oil reserves in attempt to lower prices”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59353194

    “The US has said it is releasing 50 million barrels of oil from its reserves in an attempt to bring down soaring energy and petrol prices.

    The move is being taken in parallel with other major oil-consuming nations, including China, India, Japan, South Korea and the UK.

    US President Joe Biden has repeatedly asked the Opec group of oil-producing nations to boost output more rapidly.

    But Opec has stuck to an agreement to only increase production gradually.

    It says it is concerned that a resurgence of coronavirus cases could drive down demand, as happened at the height of the pandemic.

    Crude oil prices recently touched seven-year highs, amid a sharp uptick in global demand as economies recover from the coronavirus crisis.

    It’s driven up petrol prices and energy bills in many countries.

    In a statement the White House said: “American consumers are feeling the impact of elevated gas prices at the pump and in their home heating bills, and American businesses are, too, because oil supply has not kept up with demand.

    “That’s why President Biden is using every tool available to him to work to lower prices and address the lack of supply.”

    As part of the coordinated effort, the UK government will allow firms to voluntarily release 1.5 million barrels of oil from privately-held reserves.

    It said the action would support the global economic recovery but “any benefit for UK drivers is likely to be limited and short in nature”.

    India will release five million barrels, while South Korea, Japan and China will announce the amount and timing of their releases in due course.

    Officials said it was the first time that the US had coordinated such a move with some of the world’s largest oil consumers. But analysts questioned whether it would have much impact.

    “It’s not large enough to bring down prices in a meaningful way and may even backfire if it prompts Opec+ [which includes Russia] to slow the pace at which it is raising output,” said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.

    But the effort by Washington to team up with other major economies to lower energy prices sends a warning to Opec and other big producers that they need to address concerns about high crude prices, which are up more than 50% this year

    Opec+, which includes major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, has repeatedly rebuffed requests to pump more oil at its monthly meetings, causing frustration in the US.

    “We will continue talking to international partners on this issue,” a senior US administration official told reporters on Tuesday.

    “The president stands ready to take additional action if needed, and is prepared to use his full authorities working in coordination with the rest of the world.””

    So much for Biden’s “green” agenda, and so much for COP 26.

    Like

  22. “New UK cost of living threat as oil rises to highest price in seven years
    With petrol and diesel already close to record highs, driving costs look likely to increase again”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/18/uk-cost-of-living-oil-highest-price-in-seven-years-petrol-diesel

    “Britain’s hard-pressed households face a fresh threat to their living standards after fears of Middle East supply disruption sent the price of oil to its highest level in seven years.

    With the cost of petrol and diesel already close to their highest-ever level in the UK, the cost of driving is set to rise again after a jump in oil prices to almost $88 (£65) a barrel.

    Latest figures from the RAC show motorists paying an average of 146p a litre for unleaded petrol and 149p a litre for diesel. But the rise of more than $1 a barrel in the cost of Brent crude after drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group on an oil facility in Abu Dhabi will put upward pressure on pump prices.

    US investment bank Goldman Sachs has said the price of crude will hit $100 a barrel in the second half of 2022 as global economic activity recovers from the disruption caused by the Omicron variant.”

    Like

  23. “UK motorists face record fuel prices as global oil costs rise
    Diesel already at all-time high of 151.2p with petrol close behind as Opec production falls short”

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/feb/11/uk-motorists-face-record-pump-prices-as-global-oil-costs-rise

    “Motorists face the return of record high prices at the pumps as global oil markets continue to climb towards $100 a barrel after a slowdown in output from the Opec oil cartel.

    British drivers will now pay 151.21p a litre of diesel after pump prices on Thursday climbed above the previous all-time high of 151.10p a litre in November last year, compounding the national cost of living crisis.

    Meanwhile, petrol prices have moved to within 0.05p of their November record to 147.67p a litre across the country, according to the AA, and are already above the 147.72p a litre UK record in London, the south-east and East Anglia….

    …The cost of oil has increased by more than 60% in the last 12 months, from about $60 (£44) a barrel last February to highs of $98 (£72) in the last week. After a brief slump the global oil price has resumed its march towards $100 a barrel, reaching $92.42 (£68) a barrel at midday on Friday.

    The rise has been driven by growing demand for crude following the easing of Covid-19 travel restrictions, as oil production among the world’s biggest suppliers has struggled to keep pace. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which is the world’s third-biggest oil producer, have also fuelled higher oil prices.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA), which is considered the world’s energy watchdog, on Friday blamed Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for failing to produce enough oil to meet the quotas set out by the Opec oil cartel and its allies….”

    Like

  24. “Ukraine conflict: Oil price soars to highest level since 2008”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60642786

    “Oil prices have soared to the highest level since July 2008 after the US said it was discussing a potential ban on Russian supplies with its allies.

    Brent crude – the global oil benchmark – rose to above $139 a barrel, before easing to around $130.”

    Like

  26. “Saudi Aramco to increase oil production to meet global demand
    Saudi Arabia’s state oil company also reports its net profit rose by 124% to $110bn (£83bn) in 2021”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/20/saudi-aramco-to-increase-oil-production-to-meet-global-demand

    “Saudi Arabia’s state oil company said it would increase spending on oil production to meet rising global demand, as it reported a doubling of profits in 2021.

    Saudi Aramco – the world’s largest oil exporter and one of the world’s most profitable companies – said its net profit increased by 124% to $110bn (£83bn) in 2021, compared with $49bn a year earlier.

    The company said its profits had soared as a result of higher crude oil prices as demand for oil rebounded after the pandemic, and also because of increased margins in its refining and chemicals business.

    Brent crude oil rocketed to $139 a barrel, a 14-year high, earlier this month, but has since dropped to closer to $100. In early December, a barrel of crude was priced below $70.

    Aramco expects demand for oil to keep climbing, and said “substantial new investment” is required to meet this demand, in a move likely to dismay climate campaigners.”

    Like

  27. “Saudi Aramco: Oil giant sees profits jump as prices surge”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61455301

    “Saudi Aramco has posted its highest profits since its 2019 listing as oil and gas prices surge around the world.

    The state-owned energy giant saw an 82% jump in profits, with net income topping $39.5bn (£32.2bn) in the first quarter.

    In a press release, the firm said it had been boosted by higher prices, as well as an increase in production.

    The invasion of Ukraine has seen oil and gas prices skyrocket.

    Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters but Western nations have pledged to cut their dependence on the country for energy.

    Oil prices were already rising before the Ukraine war as economies started to recover from the Covid pandemic and demand outstripped supply.

    Other energy firms including Shell, BP and TotalEnergies have also reported soaring profits as a result, although many are incurring costs exiting operations in Russia.”

    Remember this?

    “Whatever happens, the industry will never be the same again after the double whammy of the pandemic and price war. “The companies that emerge from the crisis will not be the ones that went into it,” said Carbon Tracker’s Bond. “We will see write-downs, restructuring and radical change.””

    Hmmm.

    Like

  28. Mark said:

    “Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters but Western nations have pledged to cut their dependence on the country for energy.”

    Not any more. The EU has reversed their decision not to allow European gas companies to pay for Russian gas in roubles. This may be because the majority of such companies have already set up the required accounts with Gazprombank.

    The oil companies are likely to follow for all the reasons set out on this page:

    https://thesaker.is/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/

    Like

  29. “Why can’t the US stop soaring oil and gas prices?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61446317

    “Texas oilman Jason Herrick is scrambling to pump more oil, chasing the promise of profit as oil prices soar.

    But despite his best efforts, he suspects output from his family-owned company will fall this year, for the third year in a row.

    It’s been years since his Pantera Energy has invested in new production, after money dried up when energy prices plunged – famously dropping below zero at one point – early in the pandemic.

    Now, like many other firms across the US and global economy, he’s facing major delays as he hunts for supplies and staff to make the projects happen.

    “Our job is to try to produce as much as we can and we’ve done that,” he says. “We just are so behind and we’re having a difficult time catching up.”

    It’s just one of the signs coming from the US – the world’s biggest oil and gas producer – that the high energy prices hitting households may be here to stay.

    Since the start of 2021, prices for oil and gas have jumped roughly two-fold or more, as demand roars back from the shock of 2020 Covid lockdowns.

    The war in Ukraine, which has pushed countries in the West to shun Russian energy supplies, has only sharpened their climb.

    As the market heats up, forecasts suggest US production will increase by about one million barrels per day this year.

    …Western leaders, including Mr Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have pleaded for help from Saudi Arabia and other producers, which analysts say have the capacity to boost output without major new investments.

    In Canada, the fourth largest oil producer after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the liberal government has renewed talks about getting long-stalled oil and gas projects, like terminals to export natural gas to Europe, off the ground.

    “It’s very much a 180 [degree shift] in mindset,” says Alfred Sorenson, chief executive of Pieridae Energy, which shelved its plans for a liquefied natural gas terminal in Nova Scotia last year after struggling to find investors.

    But it is now eyeing a revival after a signal that government might be newly willing to offer more support….”

    Like

  30. “Brent crude rises above $120 a barrel as UK fuel prices hit record highs”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/30/brent-crude-rises-above-dollars-120-a-barrel-as-uk-fuel-prices-hit-record-highs

    “The global oil price has risen above $120 (£94.90) a barrel as record high petrol and diesel prices in the UK add to concerns about the inflationary pressure that families and businesses are facing.

    Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose on Monday to $120 a barrel for the first time since late March, lifted by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, a move that could lead to higher demand for energy from China.”

    Like

  31. “Oil firms seem more interested in shareholders than net zero
    Analysis: Is the energy industry willing to invest in renewables rather than dividends and buybacks?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/02/oil-firms-seem-more-interested-in-shareholders-than-net-zero

    “Oil companies are partying like it’s 2008. As during the global financial crisis that took hold that year, economies face the prospect of deep recessions but oil companies are reaping record profits. BP on Tuesday became the latest in the procession to post bumper results, with its best quarter since record earnings in 2008, just as the financial system collapsed….

    …Finance bosses are taught that they should return cash to shareholders when they are unable to make more money themselves with new investments. The pace of buybacks and dividends during 2022 suggests that oil companies are content to hand more cash to investors rather than invest more to speed up the net zero transition.”

    Oil companies are run by hard-headed business people. If they think it better to return cash to shareholders, it’s because the alternatives (such as investing in renewables) make less sense. Clearly investing in more fossil fuel extraction is risky unless and until governments supply a clear signal that they will be allowed to make money from said fossil fuels over a sufficient time scale to justify any investment.

    Still, partying like it’s 2008 is a far cry from from the Guardian’s views in 2020 which I quoted in this piece, such as :

    “Whatever happens, the industry will never be the same again after the double whammy of the pandemic and price war. “The companies that emerge from the crisis will not be the ones that went into it,” said Carbon Tracker’s Bond. “We will see write-downs, restructuring and radical change.””

    and:

    “Historically weak oil markets are likely to bring lower prices for drivers at service station forecourts, but the price collapse will also hurt pension savings which are often invested in major oil companies through funds which track equity markets. The oil price crisis has already wiped billions from the market value of the largest oil companies, many of which will not be able to pay dividends if the market rout drags on.”

    Like

  32. “Oil output to see small hike to ease energy prices”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62352272

    “The world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to raise production slightly in a bid help ease high prices.

    Members of oil producers’ group Opec+ – which includes Russia – agreed on Wednesday to add 100,000 more barrels per day to the market from September.

    The latest production output increase is at a much slower pace than in recent months.

    The decision is a blow to leaders who had called for production to be ramped up.

    They include US President Joe Biden, who travelled to Saudi Arabia in a bid to personally convince the country to pump more oil to help cool soaring prices.

    Crude has consistently traded at more than $100 a barrel since February, driving up the cost of living in many countries.”

    Given Biden’s agenda, you really couldn’t make it up, could you?

    “…US President Joe Biden, who travelled to Saudi Arabia in a bid to personally convince the country to pump more oil…”

    Like

  33. just watched pt3 Big Oil Vs The World.

    overall the BBC three-part series seems just a smear campaign to me, with little facts to back up the assertions.

    ps – while looking for a link I found this – https://www.stylist.co.uk/entertainment/tv/big-oil-vs-the-world-bbc-documentary-climate-change/686513

    partial quote – “While it’s been nice to bask in the sun for the past few days, the heatwaves we’re experiencing are at an all-time high, and with news that this could very well be the coldest summer for the rest of our lives, climate change is a topic we’re discussing now more than ever.”

    coldest summer !!! – give me a break, have these people been so brainwashed, seems so.

    Like

  35. “Robert Lyman: The ‘truth about oil’ is that the world keeps using more of it”

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-lyman-truth-oil-world-110004703.html

    What psychologists refer to as “illusory truth” is the tendency people have to believe anything, no matter how false, so long as they hear it repeated often enough.

    Proponents of climate alarm endlessly repeat that the world is using less and less oil and that this trend is relentless and inevitable. As their logic goes, reducing and eventually ending oil production is merely facilitating a trend that is happening anyway. But that “truth” is completely illusory.

    The 2022 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy provides data on global demand for crude oil. According to the review, between 2002 and 2019, total world demand rose by 19.5 million barrels per day, from 78.3 million to 97.7 million. The annual average increase from 2009 to 2019 was over one million barrels per day per year. This is the fastest absolute growth in oil demand over a comparable period ever.

    …the economic effect of the global pandemic starting in 2020 was significant. The demand for oil declined in that one year by nine million barrels per day. But the recovery from the pandemic’s effect has been almost as dramatic. Between 2020 and 2021, global oil demand increased by 5.3 million barrels per day, by far the largest absolute one-year rise ever.

    The data for 2022 are not yet available, but reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate that global oil demand has resumed its pre-pandemic trend of large annual increases. That’s not surprising, given the experience of 2009-10. As the chart shows, consumption fell sharply following the financial crisis but then after about two years was back on essentially the same growth path as before.

    Climate alarmists would have us believe the past is not a guide to the longer-term future but rather that governments can use regulations, taxes and subsidies to completely alter consumption trends, turning up into down. They and the organizations that promote their cause delight in publishing scenarios of the future labeled “clean and sustainable.” They should instead be labelled “unlikely or infeasible.”

    Independent projections from both OPEC and the United States Energy Information Administration are that oil demand will increase steadily to the end of their projection periods, which extend to 2045 and beyond.

    The large-scale increases in oil demand these projections imply will have to be met by new production. It can come from OPEC or it can come from outside OPEC, including from North America. Policies that limit investment in oil production may make the available supplies more expensive and they may hinder the economic development of some countries, like Canada, but they will not stop the global demand for oil. It is time to confront the illusory truth about oil for the sham that it is.

    Like

  36. “Oil prices fuel doubling of profits from global commodities trading, report finds
    Companies such as Vitol and Trafigura in spotlight over profits after Ukraine invasion”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/30/oil-price-boom-global-commodities-market-vitol-trafigura-mckinsey

    Profits from global commodities trading for companies including Vitol and Trafigura have nearly doubled to more than $50bn (£30bn) in recent years, driven by volatile oil prices, fresh analysis has shown.

    Global commodities trading profits ballooned to about $52bn of profits in 2021, up from $27bn in 2018, and are expected to continue to grow, according to a report by consultancy McKinsey & Company.

    The study estimated that most of the growth was driven by higher profits from oil trading, which increased by more than 90% to $18bn during the period. Profits from trading in power and gas increased from $7bn to $13bn.

    McKinsey said the value of the sector continued to rise during 2022, which resulted in the profits of commodities traders coming under scrutiny after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The war triggered volatility in commodity markets – notably for oil and gas – allowing traders to make significant margins on the sharp price moves.

    Despite moves by some fossil fuel firms to decarbonise, trading in oil and gas – as well as other commodities such as agricultural products and metals – remains highly lucrative…

    …The McKinsey report said the Ukraine war had led to a “reordering” of global oil and gas flows, including Russia transporting more oil to China and India.

    EU countries have come to rely more on the Middle East, Latin America, the US and west Africa for oil and gas imports – significantly lengthening supply chains and increasing shipping costs.

    Annual investments in hydrocarbons have dropped by 50% since 2013, but the level of funds committed to green energy would “likely not be sufficient to prevent the emergence of sustained bottlenecks”, the report said. It said about $700bn was spent on the energy transition in 2021.

    It also warned that the raw materials needed for technologies to decarbonise such as lithium for electric cars or tellurium for solar cells require “substantial growth in the next decade” to enable global climate goals to be hit…

    Like

  38. “Willow Project: US government approves Alaska oil and gas development”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64943603

    US President Joe Biden has approved a major oil and gas drilling project in Alaska that faced strong opposition from environmental activists.

    The company behind the Willow project, ConocoPhillips, says it will create local investment and thousands of jobs.

    But the $8bn (£6.6bn) proposal faced a torrent of online activism in recent weeks, particularly among youth activists on TikTok.

    Opponents argued it should be halted over its climate and wildlife impacts.

    Located on Alaska’s remote North Slope, it is the largest oil development in the region for decades and could produce up to 180,000 barrels of oil a day.

    According to US Bureau of Land Management estimates, that means it will generate up to 278 million metric tonnes of CO2e over its 30-year lifetime – the equivalent of adding two million cars to US roads every year…

    Two questions:

    1. Why has the BBC decided to adopt the Guardian’s extreme language when reporting on such issues? This is the quote I have in mind:

    So why has a president who has embraced strong action on climate change just approved a project dubbed a “carbon bomb”?

    2. Has Al Gore anything to say about this? He was keen enough to demand that the UK doesn’t open a small coal mine in Cumbria.

    Like

  39. “Italy-sized chunk of Gulf of Mexico to be auctioned off by the US for oil drilling
    In latest blow to Joe Biden’s reputation as the ‘climate president’, 73.3m acres of the gulf will be offered for fossil fuel extraction”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/29/gulf-of-mexico-oil-gas-drilling-joe-biden-auction

    An enormous swathe of the Gulf of Mexico, spanning an area the size of Italy, will be auctioned off for oil and gas drilling on Wednesday morning, in the latest blow to Joe Biden’s increasingly frayed reputation on dealing with the climate crisis.

    Biden’s department of interior is offering up a vast area of the central and western Gulf, including plunging deep water reaches, for drilling projects that will stretch out over decades, despite scientists’ urgent warnings that fossil fuels must be rapidly phased out if the world is to avoid disastrous global heating. The auctions also come despite Biden’s own pre-election promise to halt all drilling on federal lands and waters.

    In all, 73.3m acres (30m hectares), an area roughly the size of Italy, will be made available to drilling companies, less than a month before the 13th anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. The sale, known as lease 259, has the potential to extract more than 1bn barrels of oil and 4.4tn cubic feet of gas over the next 50 years, according to the US federal government.

    The auctions come just two weeks after Biden’s administration approved the controversial Willow project, a drilling endeavor in the remote tundra of Alaska’s arctic that will remove more than 600m barrels of oil over its lifetime, and the two actions have caused major alarm among those in favor of a livable climate, including Biden’s usual allies.

    Like

  40. Mark,
    Thanks for these news items. Dare we hope that a small chink of reality is creeping into the US government’s “thinking” (I use the term loosely!)?
    The Willow project might have been approved because, aiui, the Alaska pipeline is running close to its minimum capacity and urgently needs more feed-in. If it were to close the whole North Slope resource would be lost.
    The release of the Gulf area is more encouraging as it doesn’t have any special drivers, afaik.

    Like

  41. “Global oil demand on course for record as China’s economy rebounds
    International Energy Agency’s expectation for 2023 is 2m bpd higher than last year’s figure”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/14/global-oil-demand-on-course-for-record-as-chinas-economy-rebounds

    Global demand for oil this year is on track to rise to a record 101.9m barrels per day as China leads an economic surge among developing nations, the world’s leading energy body has forecast.

    The International Energy Agency’s predicted daily average for 2023 is 2m bpd higher than last year’s figure.

    The price of a barrel of oil rose from $85.62 (£68.44) to $86.10 on Friday morning after the IEA’s report was published.

    The agency warned that a recent decision by the world’s biggest oil exporters to cut their production could drive oil prices higher, in a blow to efforts to reduce inflation and reset economic growth in developed countries. “This augurs badly for the economic recovery and growth,” the IEA said…

    Like

  44. Reading the funeral rites for oil during the covid pandemic turned out to be premature. It’s obviously time for the Guardian to give it another go:

    “Peak in global oil demand ‘in sight before end of decade’
    International Energy Agency says demand will grow by 2.4m barrels a day in 2023 to record 102.3m”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/14/peak-in-global-oil-demand-in-sight-before-end-of-decade

    The worldwide peak in demand for oil is “in sight” and could come before the end of this decade, the global energy watchdog has said.

    The International Energy Agency said the bounceback in oil demand that followed the easing of Covid restrictions was likely to end this year and growth would slow from next year.

    A potential worsening in the global economy and the long-term transition to cleaner energy sources are expected to hurt demand.

    The IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, said: “The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance.”

    Global oil demand would grow by 2.4m barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 102.3m, the IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday.

    However, the Paris-based agency expects economic headwinds to reduce growth to 860,000 bpd next year, and increasing use of electric vehicles to help to reduce that to 400,000 bpd in 2028 for overall demand of 105.7m….

    Of course, the IEA, despite its name, is a pressure group rather than some official international agency, and its reports tend, in my reading of them, to be a mix of propaganda and wishful thinking, so if I were a Guardian journalist, I wouldn’t get my hopes up just yet.

    Like

  45. “The triumph of oil”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-triumph-of-oil/

    People have been warning about peak oil almost since we had a large-scale oil industry. It has become like Malthus’s prediction of peak food production – a graveyard for forecasters.

    If you want a laugh, I recommend an article which appeared in the March 1998 issue of Scientific American, ‘The End of Cheap Oil’. In it, oil geologists Colin J Campbell and Jean H Laherrere used terribly clever models to tell us that global oil production would peak around 2004-05, after which we would be trying to rely on an ever-dwindling, ever more expensive supply of oil, with huge consequences for the global economy.

    Campbell was so sure of his thesis that three years later he formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, coining a new term which would be thrown about over the next couple of decades. ‘Peak Oil’ would later be adopted by climate campaigners to try to make the case that switching to renewables would not only help tackle global warming, it would save us money too because the price of oil could only go up.

    How is the thesis going? Not well. Not only did oil production fail to fall away after 2004-05, it seems to have recovered from its pandemic slump, too. In its latest Oil Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil consumption over the course of 2023 will rise by 2.2 million barrels per day (mp/d) to reach 102.1 mb/d, overtaking 2019 and setting a new record. Oil production, too, is close to an all-time high, although a cut back by Saudi Arabia this month has taken the edge off the figures.

    The continued rise in global oil consumption may come as a surprise to many in this country, where we are continuously spun platitudes such as ‘Britain is falling behind in the race to net zero’. What race? There is plenty of investment worldwide in renewable energy, electric cars and many other things – and it is true that Britain is falling behind in many of those markets. But Britain stands as something of an outlier in the speed of its determination to drive fossil fuels out of its economy.

    Take Norway. It leads the world in the adoption of electric cars, installation of heat pumps and also electricity – 98 per cent of which comes from hydro and other renewables. In those senses it is the country that our government wants us to be. Yet last month the Norwegian government approved an $18 billion investment programme by the state oil company to develop 19 new oil and gas fields. Why? Because it can see that for all the attractions of green energy, oil and gas are going to form a vital part of global energy infrastructure for decades to come. Few countries, after all, have the hydro-electric potential and low population density which allowed Norway to develop those industries long before anyone was talking about climate change. And it is not just energy, either. Hydrocarbons from oil wells are the source of the vast majority of plastics manufactured in the world, as well as fertilisers and many other things….

    Liked by 1 person

  46. Oh the irony!

    “Scottish public spending deficit falls as oil revenues hit record high
    Both sides of constitutional debate use Gers data to argue case for and against independence”

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/16/scottish-public-spending-deficit-falls-oil-revenues-hit-record-high

    Scotland’s public spending deficit has fallen from a record peak last year, as oil and gas revenues reached their highest-ever level after a global rise in oil prices.

    The government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) report calculated a per-person deficit – the gap between the amount raised through all tax and spending on all public services – as £1,521 in the 2022-23 financial year, down from £2,184 the previous year.

    But the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Scotland’s notional deficit remained substantially higher than that of the UK as a whole – 9.0% of GDP versus 5.2% of GDP, equivalent to an extra £1,530 per person, with most of this gap due to higher government spending in Scotland.

    The IFS also cautioned that the gap was likely to widen again from next year if oil and gas prices fell as predicted. Excluding the North Sea revenue, the total deficit of £19.1bn grew to £28.5bn.

    The annual public spending estimates, which cover all the taxes and spending by the devolved and UK governments in Scotland, found Scotland raised £87.5bn in 2022-23, including income from North Sea oil, which rose by £6.9bn to £9.4bn last year, and spent £106.6bn.

    The cabinet secretary for wellbeing economy, fair work and energy, Neil Gray, said while oil and gas receipts contributed “significantly” to the fall in deficit…

    Like

  47. “Global inflation fears as oil price rises towards $100 a barrel
    Rise of 30% since June follows increasing demand in China and production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/17/global-inflation-fears-as-oil-price-rises-towards-100-a-barrel

    Oil prices are on track to reach $100 a barrel this month for the first time in 2023 after surging by almost 30% since June, after Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts and rising demand from China.

    Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, rose to a 10-month high last week of almost $94 a barrel, up from $72 a barrel at its lowest point in June – heading for its biggest quarterly increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The lighter US crude, West Texas Intermediate, has climbed from $67 a barrel to $90 a barrel over the same period. Both benchmarks were up by about 4% on the week…

    …The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last week that the ongoing supply cuts made by these two Opec+ leaders would create a “significant supply shortfall”, which poses a considerable threat to ongoing price volatility.

    The report was released just a day after Opec announced that the market was facing a deficit of more than 3m bpd in the upcoming quarter, potentially resulting in the most substantial supply shortage in more than a decade.

    Saudia Arabia and its partners in Opec are also concerned that the IEA has predicted that demand for oil will peak before 2030, which some analysts believe could be brought forward to 2026 by the rapid switch to renewables already under way.

    Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI asset management, said: “Oil’s wicked ripper is showing few signs of abating just yet.”..

    …The rising cost of fuel and demand from the Chinese economy, which ranks as the world’s biggest oil importer, are expected to cloud the outlook for central banks and their mission to bring down inflation rates that are still well above the 2% target level….

    “Betting on oil is becoming a favourite trade on Wall Street. No one is doubting the Opec+ (oil output) decision at the end of last month will keep the oil market very tight in the fourth quarter,” said Edward Moya, an OANDA analyst.

    It’s a far cry from those heady days, less than three and a half years ago, when the Guardian, barely able to contain its excitement, produced on 20th April 2020) an article titled “Oil prices dip below zero as producers forced to pay to dispose of excess”.

    Like

  48. “Chevron to buy oil and gas producer Hess in $53bn all-stock deal
    Takeover puts Chevron head-to-head with ExxonMobil in oil-rich Guyana and US shale industry”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/23/chevron-to-buy-oil-and-gas-producer-hess-corp-in-53bn-all-stock-deal-guyana-shale

    Chevron has announced plans to buy the oil producer Hess Corporation in a $53bn (£44bn) deal, becoming the second American energy giant to place a vast bet on fossil fuel production this month.

    The all-stock takeover, which will increase Chevron’s presence in oil-rich Guyana, was unveiled less than two weeks after another of the world’s largest oil companies, Exxon Mobil, said it would acquire the shale group Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5bn.

    Such major acquisitions have raised expectations of further consolidation across the industry. “We’ve got too many CEOs per BOE [barrels of oil equivalent] so consolidation is natural,” said Michael Wirth, chief executive of Chevron, who added that the world could expect to see other deals.

    Guyana has become a leading oil producer in recent years after huge discoveries by Exxon, its partner Hess and China’s CNOOC, which together produce 400,000 barrels a day of crude from two offshore vessels and have said they could develop up to 10 offshore projects….

    …The combined company was expected to grow production and free cashflow faster and for longer than Chevron’s current five-year guidance, the companies said.

    Chevron’s vice-president and chief financial officer, Pierre Breber, said “With greater confidence in projected long-term cash generation, Chevron intends to return more cash to shareholders with higher dividend per share growth and higher share repurchases.”

    While the Biden administration has sought to hasten the shift towards renewable energy in the face of the climate crisis, this acquisition underlines the confidence of US oil giants that fossil fuel output will not be significantly hampered in the coming years….

    Like

  49. Mark – but the Guardian has to end with the mandatory –

    But campaigners have criticized such deals, questioning how consolidation in the oil industry will help the world to achieve climate targets.
    Cassidy DiPaola, campaign manager at Fossil Free Media, described the takeover as “yet another concerning sign that the fossil fuel industry has no intention of slowing down, despite increasingly dire warnings from climate scientists”

    you have to wonder what world these campaigners live in.

    ps had to look up “Fossil Free Media”

    banner “Together We Can End Fossil Fuels
    Fossil Free Media is a non profit media lab that supports the movement to end fossil fuels and address the climate emergency.”

    tried to find who the team were, with no luck 😦

    Like

  50. dfhunter,

    Their website says very little, and I can’t find out who funds them (Fossil Free Media, that is). They don’t seem to be terribly active, the most recent feature on their blog page being dated 10th February 2023.

    Like

  51. Mark,
    can’t blame them for not being very active, they must be busy getting skiing holidays in before the big melt climate scientists have warned them about 🙂

    Like

  52. “BP posts profits of $3.3bn as oil prices rise again”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67264120

    Energy giant BP has reported lower than expected profits despite global oil prices rising again.

    The company posted profits of $3.3bn (£2.7bn) between July and September, lower than predictions of $4bn.

    Its earnings were down from $8.1bn in the same period in 2022 when BP made huge profits following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to oil prices soaring.

    Oil prices are currently lower than that period, but have risen recently.

    BP said while oil production was strong, gas trading had been “weak” in recent months….

    …While BP’s profits for the three months to the end of September were lower than predicted by analysts, earnings were up from $2.6bn in the previous quarter.

    Interim chief executive Murray Auchincloss said the quarter had been “solid” and that company expected to “grow earnings through this decade, and on track to deliver strong returns for our shareholders”.

    The company said the rise in profits from earlier this year were a result of higher oil refining margins and increased oil and gas production….

    Like

  53. “Shell posts $6.2bn profit as oil prices rise again”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67294888

    Oil and gas giant Shell has posted strong profits helped by oil prices rising again.

    The energy giant reported earnings of $6.2bn (£5.1bn) between July and September, up sharply on the previous quarter.

    Profits were down from $9.4bn in the same period last year, however, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in oil and gas prices.

    Oil prices are currently lower than that period, but have risen recently.

    That is largely due to members of the Opec+ group of oil-producing nations cutting output to support the market.

    Earlier this week, the World Bank warned that the conflict in the Middle East could push the price of crude oil up to $150 a barrel – compared to $85 today.

    Shell said its earnings in the past three months were up 23% on the previous quarter.

    It said it had benefitted from higher oil prices and pumping more oil and gas, along with making more money from refining and gas trading…

    Like

  54. “Canada oil and gas firms to drill 8% more wells next year as emissions target slips
    Producers take advantage of new shipping options, including government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline, to boost exports”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/canada-oil-gas-more-wells-trans-mountain

    Oil and gas producers say they will drill 8% more wells in Canada next year as they look to take advantage of new shipping options, including a controversial government-owned pipeline.

    Amid forecasts that Canada is not on target to reach its emissions reductions goals, on Friday the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) predicted nearly 500 more wells next year, to 6,229 projects.

    The news comes as Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, weighs a possible emissions cap on the country’s oil and gas sector. The environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, has said his government hopes to draft a proposal before the Cop28 climate conference, which begins in Dubai next week. The fossil fuel industry argues the proposed caps are too restrictive.

    Despite its ambitious climate commitments, Canada is expected to miss its goal of cutting carbon emissions by at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, in part because of emissions from the oil and gas sector. A recent audit found the only significant emissions reductions came during the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.

    “Canada is the only G7 country that has not achieved any emissions reductions since 1990,” Jerry DeMarco, commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, told reporters earlier this month.

    CAOEC said one of the catalysts for the new drilling projects was the imminent opening of new pipelines, including the delayed Trans Mountain expansion project.

    The federal government bought the embattled TransMountain project from Kinder Morgan in 2018 for C$4.5bn (US$3.3bn), with the prime minister arguing Canada needed to alleviate a crude-oil transportation bottleneck that costs Canadian oil producers billions annually in forgone export revenue….

    Like

  55. “Revealed: Saudi Arabia’s grand plan to ‘hook’ poor countries on oil
    Climate scientists say fossil fuel use needs to fall rapidly – but oil-rich kingdom is working to drive up demand”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/revealed-saudi-arabia-plan-poor-countries-oil

    Saudi Arabia is driving a huge global investment plan to create demand for its oil and gas in developing countries, an undercover investigation has revealed. Critics said the plan was designed to get countries “hooked on its harmful products”.

    Little was known about theoil demand sustainability programme (ODSP) but the investigation obtained detailed information on plans to drive up the use of fossil fuel-powered cars, buses and planes in Africa and elsewhere, as rich countries increasingly switch to clean energy.

    The ODSP plans to accelerate the development of supersonic air travel, which it notes uses three times more jet fuel than conventional planes, and partner with a carmaker to mass produce a cheap combustion engine vehicle. Further plans promote power ships, which use polluting heavy fuel oil or gas to provide electricity to coastal communities.

    The ODSP is overseen by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, and involves its biggest organisations, such as the $700bn Public Investment Fund, the world’s largest oil company, Aramco, the petrochemicals firm Sabic, and the government’s most important ministries.

    In publicly available information, the programme is largely presented as “removing barriers” to energy and transport in poorer countries and “increasing sustainability”, for example by providing gas cooking stoves to replace wood burning.

    However, all the planned projects revealed in the investigation by the Centre for Climate Reporting and Channel 4 News involve increasing the use of oil and gas. An official said this was “one of the main objectives”….

    How shocking – how dare they want to provide gas stoves to replace wood burning? They ought to be thoroughly ashamed of themselves for wanting to improve poor peoples’ lives, improve their health, and to help lift them out of poverty.

    Like

  57. “BP reports second highest profit in a decade”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68206788

    … excluding 2022’s results, BP’s annual profit figure was the biggest since 2012.

    In the final three months of 2023, BP reported profits of $3bn, which was higher than expected, and its shares were up more than 5% by Tuesday afternoon.

    The company also said it planned to increase returns to investors during the first three months of the year through $1.75bn of share buybacks. It has also committed to $3.5bn of buybacks over the first half of 2024.

    BP said it expected “underlying production from oil production and operations to be higher” this year, but output from gas and low carbon energy to be lower….

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  58. “The world is using more oil, coal and gas than ever before and will use more. Net Zero is dead

    China, India and the Global South will drive crude oil consumption no matter what”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/14/oil-coal-gas-demand-forecasts-net-zero-dead/

    A recent flurry of forecasts offers us a range of different views on what’s happening to the global demand for, and use of, crude oil. One thing seems to be clear, however: the chances of net zero carbon emissions in the near term – ie, by 2050 – are basically zero….

    …One major point of consensus related to global oil demand growth is the expectation that it will continue to be robust, driven by a combination of factors including economic recovery, increased travel, and surging industrial activity in non-OECD nations. 

    The only major body not seeing continued, massive growth is the International Energy Agency (IEA), which revised its numbers this week to predict that crude demand will rise by just 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year and will (at last!) peak “towards the end of this decade” at 106 million bpd, up from 102 million at the moment. The IEA expects this growth to be led by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. The IEA and others have highlighted the importance of these regions in driving global oil demand.

    The IEA, which is funded by 31 industrialized nations through a dues structure, says that it believes growth in demand from India, China and elsewhere will be gradually outweighed by the expected rollout of electric vehicles and other green technologies. However, one should note that the agency has been shifting for a long time from being an analytical organisation to being essentially a green campaigning one, and its forecasts nowadays are as much attempts to influence markets as to genuinely predict them.

    In contrast to the IEA, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day, up from its previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. This revision is based on expectations for travel and tourism in the second half of the year. EIA projects even stronger demand growth for 2025 of 1.5 mbpd, again clashing with the IEA which sees just 1 mbpd that year, with non-OECD countries accounting for most of the growth. The US federal agency also raised its projection for crude prices to rise to an average of $87/barrel in Q4 2024 based on the rising demand.…

    ...While growth projections among these various entities vary significantly, there is an overarching consensus even from the IEA for strong global demand growth for crude oil for 2024/25 based largely on rising demand from developing nations in the Global South, along with fairly robust overall economic growth. All four forecasts are also largely in agreement on an outlook for robust, rising crude prices across the second half of 2024. 

    It bears noting here that the ongoing strong demand for crude is accompanied by similar strong demand growth for natural gas, coal, and even wood in the energy sector. Given that all those forms of carbon-intensive fuels saw record or near-record demand in 2023, they’re all likely to set new records for 2024 and probably 2025, too

    In other words, the human race is using more carbon-intensive fuels than it ever has before, and is set to use more and more going forward. The vaunted “energy transition” is simply not happening.

    Net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is, for all intents and purposes, dead.

    Liked by 2 people

  60. “‘Very serious’: Bank of England governor warns of Middle East oil shock risk”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/03/its-tragic-bank-of-england-governor-watching-middle-east-crisis-closely

    The Bank of England is monitoring the Middle East crisis amid fears that a worsening conflict between Iran and Israel will make it impossible to stabilise oil prices and leave the global economy vulnerable to a 1970s-style energy shock.

    Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said he was watching developments “extremely closely” and that there were limits to what could be done to prevent the cost of crude rising if things “got really bad”….

    No doubt the zealots will say this is why we have to wean ourselves off oil asap. Alternatively, we could ensure security of supply by not sabotaging plans to extract it from the North Sea, since the reality is we will be heavily dependent on oil for decades to come.

    Liked by 1 person

  61. Meanwhile another company is rethinking its plans for the N. Sea (from Energy Voice):

    “TotalEnergies says UK oil tax will hurt investment, operations. Planned oil and gas tax changes in the UK will prompt TotalEnergies (PAR: TTE) to reduce capital expenditure and restructure operations in the country.”

    Mark; fully agree with your concluding sentence. The sad fact is that the UK has shown itself to be hostile to the oil and gas industries with aggressive taxation and shifting attitudes to licences. Even if the govt were to turn round and try to encourage investment, it won’t happen. They have shown themselves to be unreliable and untrustworthy. The ship has sailed. I hate to think what the long-term cost will be in terms of lost tax revenue, falling employment, reduced supply chain business, etc.. Then there are are the additional costs of increasing imports of oil and gas, especially the latter if supplied as LNG. Of course energy security is weakened too. Utter insanity.

    Liked by 1 person

  62. This is interesting, for a few different reasons (not least the fall in the price of oil). It’s not at the levels where the Guardian crowed during covid that oil was dead – in fact I suspect that at that price it will make itself rather competitive, and I incline to the view that the revised IEA projection that oil use will now fall rather than rise may well turn out to be wrong. But they might be right and I might be wrong. Who knows? Watch this space:

    “Trump tariffs will mean world uses less oil this year, IEA says

    Energy watchdog cuts forecast for growth in demand by a third, and says a trade war could mean it falls further”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/15/trump-tariffs-will-mean-world-uses-less-oil-2025-iea

    PS I see the Guardian is once again inaccurately describing the IEA as an “energy watchdog”.

    Liked by 1 person

  63. “BP makes its biggest oil and gas discovery in 25 years off coast of Brazil

    Company to carry out more tests on its Santos basin find as it continues shift from renewables back to fossil fuels”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/04/bp-makes-major-oil-and-gas-discovery-off-coast-of-brazil-santos-basin

    BP has made its largest oil and gas discovery of the past 25 years off the coast of Brazil as it continues to shift its focus away from renewables and back to fossil fuels.

    The Santos basin oil and gas discovery, which is located in deep waters, is the company’s 10th oil discovery of the year and could be its largest since its discovery at the Shah Deniz gasfield in Azerbaijan in 1999.

    BP is carrying out further tests on the Santos discovery, made beneath about 2,400 metres of water and 250 miles (400km) off the Brazilian coast, to gauge the potential of the oil and gas basin. It is likely to play a significant role in the company’s plan to increase its oil and gas production to between 2.3m to 2.5m barrels of oil equivalent a day.

    The company said on Monday it had also started a new oil extension project in the Gulf of Mexico that should add an extra 20,000 barrels a day to its production. The Argos project would be the first in a series of new projects in the Gulf between now and the end of the decade.

    BP has returned its focus to fossil fuels in recent years after abandoning its failed plan to cut its hydrocarbon production, which had favoured expanding in low-carbon energy alternatives, such as offshore wind.

    Gordon Birrell, the head of BP’s oil and gas production business, said the discovery was “another success in what has been an exceptional year so far” which had underscored the company’s “commitment to growing our upstream” oil and gas production.

    He added that Brazil was an important country for BP, which will explore the potential of establishing “a material and advantaged production hub in the country”….

    That’s quite an irony, given that Brazil will be hosting COP30.

    Liked by 2 people

  64. “OPEC projects global oil demand to surge 23 percent to 378 million bpd by 2050  

    By 2050, over 1.2 billion people are expected to live in urban areas, increasing energy consumption.”

    https://economymiddleeast.com/news/opec-projects-global-oil-demand-to-surge-23-percent-to-378-million-bpd-by-2050/

    Global oil demand is projected to rise significantly, reaching 378 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, representing a 23 percent increase from the current level of 308 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to a comprehensive report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This outlook was presented by Behrooz Baikalizadeh, head of OPEC’s Petroleum Studies Department, during Kazakhstan Energy Week 2025 and the 16th KAZENERGY Eurasian Forum held in Astana, Kazakhstan. The report highlights key factors driving this increase, including strong global population growth, urbanization, evolving economic factors, and shifts in the global energy mix.…

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  65. Over 4 billion already live in urban areas, so if the rest of their statistics are of the same quality, the projections ought to be taken with a tad of salt. That said, I’m sure I have seen a similar projection elsewhere, so maybe there is something to it. It would certainly show the “stranded assets” claims that were bandied around not that long ago to be nothing more than wishes they always were.

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