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Canada’s Burning and it’s Mostly Because of Humans Says Federal Government Report

 

The BBC obligingly reports on a Canadian government analysis of the national warming trend which concludes that warming since 1948 is twice the global average and is mostly due to greenhouse gases expelled by industries and homes. Which is convenient, because Turdeau is currently expanding the regressive socialist carbon tax to include another four provinces.

Canada is warming on average at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the world, a new scientific report indicates.

The federal government climate report also warns that changes are already evident in many parts of the country and are projected to intensify.

Canada’s Arctic has seen the deepest impact and will continue to warm at more than double the global rate.

The report suggests that many of the effects already seen are probably irreversible.

Canada’s annual average temperature has warmed by an estimated 1.7C (3F) since 1948, when nationwide temperatures were first recorded.

The largest temperature increases have been seen in the North, the Prairies, and in northern British Columbia.

Annual average temperature in northern Canada increased by approximately 2.3C.

“While both human activities and natural variations in the climate have contributed to the observed warming in Canada, the human factor is dominant,” the report states.

“It is likely that more than half of the observed warming in Canada is due to the influence of human activities.”

Far be it for me to suggest that this is perhaps less like science and more like opportunist government propaganda to make what is a very bitter pill in the form of naked socialist regressive tax policy a little easier to swallow. So I will just leave this here, with you, dear readers, to make up your own minds:

Globally, 2014 and 2015 were the two warmest years on record. At odds with these global records, eastern Canada experienced pronounced annual cold anomalies in both 2014 and 2015, especially during the 2013/14 and 2014/15 winters. This study sought to contextualize these cold winters within a larger climate context in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Toronto winter temperatures (maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and mean Tmean) for the 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons were ranked among all winters for three periods: 1840/41–2015 (175 winters), 1955/56–2015 (60 winters), and 1985/86–2015 (30 winters), and the average warming trend for each temperature metric during these three periods was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Thiel–Sen slope estimation.

Overall, Toronto winter temperatures have warmed considerably since winter 1840/41. The Mann–Kendall analysis showed statistically significant monotonic trends in winter Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean over the last 175 and 60 years. These trends notwithstanding, there has been no clear signal in Toronto winter temperature since 1985/86.

Within the past 30 years, the significant warming trends in Toronto winter temperature appear to have broken down. While this could simply be the case of a signal being lost in the noise of an increasingly varied seasonal weather series, it is possible that some external driver is influencing Toronto winter temperatures. This study examined some of the myriad factors that influence Toronto winter temperatures, including the urban heat island affect, major global circulation pattern teleconnections, and the polar jet stream.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0562.1

And this:

For the Canadian Arctic, the available meteorological seriesof data are particularly short and most cover only the period after World War II.

The results showed that air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic from 1819 to 1859 were not as exceptionally cold as has been suggested by some analyses of proxy data (Koerner, 1977; Overpecket al., 1997). This conclusion is confirmed by the fact that the majority of the mean monthly air temperatures lie within one standard deviation (SD) from the modern mean (Figure 2), and only in a few cases do they exceed the level of two SDs.

Both kinds of data (monthly and daily) clearly show that the Canadian Arctic in the nineteenth century(1819 – 1859) was colder than today, but the average annual temperature during this period was only about 0.7°C lower in comparison with the present-day (1961 – 1990) value. It was also shown that in the period from 1819 to 1832, the annual temperatures were warmer than in the 1850s by about 0.3°C. In the annual course, the greatest differences between the mentioned time periods occurred in winter and spring. During the first period, significantly warmer winter and colder springs were noted. Throughout the whole study period, the majority of mean monthly and daily temperatures lie within one SD from the modern mean.(2) The most typical features in the annual courses of air temperature in the study period were very cold winter months (December to February, 1.5 – 2.5°C below today’s norm) and warm springs and early summers (April to June, 0.3 – 2.7°C above today’s norm).

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.1213

What these studies do is confirm that reliable instrumental data, especially in Northern Canada, is only available after WWII, so the observed warming trend from 1948 – attributed almost entirely to GHGs – may or may not be exceptional in terms of the long term variability of climate in Canada. They confirm that in Toronto at least, the urban heat island effect, natural variability and changes in circulation patterns (the jet stream) may have been very significant contributors to observed trends and that no significant warming of winter temperatures occurred during the period 1985-2015 – when CO2 was increasing fastest. They confirm that mean annual temperature trends in Canada are heavily influenced by seasonal variability, which suggests natural influences more than GHG global warming. They confirm that the 19th century wasn’t quite as cold as some suggest and indeed that in the early 19th century, it was significantly warmer than in the mid-19th century. Turdeau can’t blame carbon emissions for that – well, he could, I suppose. You don’t need common sense, science and observations when you’ve got regressive socialism. Ask AOC.

18 thoughts on “Canada’s Burning and it’s Mostly Because of Humans Says Federal Government Report

  1. These reports send journalists quite doolalli:

    https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/pannv9/climate-change-hits-canada-twice-as-hard-as-other-countries

    “Canada feels the measurable impact of climate change, and global warming, more than most other countries. Scientists from coast to coast, including our own federal government’s experts at Environment Canada have stated this publicly. EC’s senior climatologist told CBC that if you look at the last seven decades, the effect on temperatures has been at least twice as noticeable in Canada as the rest of the world.

    Ali Nazemi is a climate change expert at Concordia University who spoke to VICE exclusively and he agreed that parts of Canada are in fact being hit by warming temperatures at twice the global rate but many are unaware of it

    Meanwhile, Indigenous communities from the far north are seeing distortions in the sky—caused by atmospheric changes—that make it look like the moon and the stars aren’t where they’re supposed to be and the sun appear to be rising in the wrong spot.”

    That’s a new effect of CO2 I hadn’t heard before…

    Liked by 1 person

  2. This is the first time I’ve seen socialist policies called regressive. I think you have that correct. I’ve always wondered why they’ve been referred to as progressive!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Canada’s CBC here recently cited “a leaked report” which claimed Canada is “warming at twice the global rate.”

    According to the “leaked report”, Canada’s annual average temperature over land has warmed 1.7 C when looking at the data since 1948. But that claim is misleading when recent data is considered.

    Over the past 25 years, since scientists began to warn that the planet was warming in earnest, there has not been any warming when one looks at the untampered data provided by the Japan meteorology Agency (JMA) that were measured by 9 different stations across Canada. These 9 stations have the data dating back to around 1983 or 1986, so I used their datasats.

    Looking at the JMA database and plotting the stations with longer term recording, we have the following chart:

    Though temperatures over Canada no doubt have risen over the past century, there has not been any real warming in over 25 years. Rather, there’s been slight cooling, though not statistically significant. Clearly there hasn’t been any Canadian warming recently.

    So it is misleading — to say the least — to give the impression that Canada warming has been accelerating.

    https://notrickszone.com/2019/04/03/cbc-claims-canada-warming-twice-as-fast-as-globe-yet-data-tell-a-different-story-no-warming-in-25-years/

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Thanks for the links Dennis and Ron, which confirm the fact that, in Canada as a whole, there has been no net warming for the past 3 decades and that the warming which has taken place since the mid 19th century is not unusual in the light of past natural variation. As usual though, the climate alarmist propaganda machine gets hold of a truncated set of instrumental data and makes it jump through hoops to ‘prove’ that we are drastically altering the climate.

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  5. How to spread fear and despondency amongst Canucks – tell them their winters are getting warmer. Next step tentatively suggest, by unattributed innuendo, that their national winter sport of outside or schoolyard ice hockey will be threatened.

    I lived ten years on the Prairies (Regina* and Calgary) and I can attest to the fact that, if any part of the world might benefit from winter warming at twice the world average temperature rise, it is that frigid hell. However, starting from such a low base, who would notice?

    *The worst I ever experienced was a day in Regina in the 1970s when temperatures dropped below -40oC and, unusually for such cold conditions, the wind blew strongly, creating horrendous wind chill conditions. Rotating fan belts on cars froze and snapped leaving stranded cars and drivers all over the city.

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  6. The actual report quotes a regional warming attribution study to justify its main conclusion that most warming from 1948 is anthropogenic in origin. It’s the usual con-trick. Estimate anthropogenic influence on temperatures using a selection of models from the CMIP5 ensemble (mean ECS = 3,2C. i.e. high climate sensitivity) which also systematically underestimate natural internal variability. Cherry-pick a convenient truncated period of strong warming where instrumental data is richest, weighted strongly against past historical and very patchy instrumental data and proxy data.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Shiveringonwinter: “This is the first time I’ve seen socialist policies called regressive.”

    You’d probably hear it more in the US where some of the loony left call for actual racial segregation and frown upon interracial dating etc in the media, while the rest either pretend not to notice or nod at the sagacious wisdom.

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  8. Above I commented and posted on the dangers of PC-enforced monotonic diversity (“It’s OK if you don’t look like us, as long as you think like us.”). I must now reference a much more encouraging report of the state of these affairs at my alma mater, Stanford, one of the earliest schools to stopping teaching Western Civ, and the cradle of global warming/climate change alarmism.
    l
    Journalist Richard Bernstein’s 1994 book, Dictatorship of Virtue, was among the first on the rise of political correctness. Twenty-five years later, he returns to Stanford University to take stock of the forces unleashed — and those kept in check.

    “In the decades since, there’s been plenty of righteous indignation expressed: the campus thought police demanding (and often getting) protection from anything they deem to be offensive; informal limits on free speech; reckless accusations of racism, sexism, and homophobia; violent demonstrations against conservative speakers. It goes on.

    Such episodes and events often get wide attention. And I was expecting to find a deeply fraught atmosphere at Stanford. Instead, what I found there, 25 years after my book’s publication, was not the brute triumph of a narrow, politically correct orthodoxy but a far more subtle and peaceful outcome to those battles. To be sure, the liberal-left, identity-politics forces for change have scored great gains. They are now established in the departments whose creation they demanded, while things like the Western-civ requirement remain discarded.

    But I also found that things have calmed down. The day-to-day mood is less explosively acrimonious than it was a quarter-century ago, in part because those who want to concentrate on identity politics now have their places. But they are contained there. They haven’t shut the rest of the place down, and the rest of the place – perhaps a not silent but discreet and quiet majority – goes about its business delivering a pretty good education to students.”

    “The composition of its student body, moreover, is very different from decades past. About 36% of undergraduates are listed as “white.” Half of the 7,000 or so undergraduates are women; 11% are foreigners; nearly 18% are “first gens,” the first in their families to attend college. The arithmetic of this suggests that only a little more than 21% of the undergraduate student body is made up of the type of student that dominated in the era of mandatory core courses in the Western canon – white males whose parents were college educated.”

    But in addition to their single Thinking Matters class, which is just a fragment of an undergraduate’s time at Stanford, students have to take 11 quarter-length classes in what’s called Ways of Thinking/Ways of Doing, aka WAYS, and here is where the fashionable trends in identity politics, race, gender, sexuality, class, and their “intersectionality,” as the current term has it, become thick and heavy.

    There are dozens and dozens of courses in WAYS, and the diversity theme is omnipresent — “Race and Gender in Silicon Valley,” “Ethnicity, Race, and Identity in Performance Cultures,” “Introduction to Comparative Queer Literary Studies,” “Race, Gender, and Sexuality in Contemporary American Film,” and “Introduction to Intersectionality” (readings drawn “chiefly from black feminist scholars”).”

    And it would seem from course enrollment figures and the choice of majors that while courses in “Engaging Diversity” may be required, they’re not where students are putting their main effort.

    According to the Office of the Provost, in the graduating class of 2017 (the last for which these statistics are available) 274 students got computer science degrees, 382 in one or another engineering program, 40 in English, nine in Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity, and two in Feminist, Gender and Sexuality Studies.”

    Berman, the Thinking Matters director, noted the irony that while fierce ideological conflicts get most of the ink, the real problem now may be the lack of intellectual passion among students. Over lunch at the student union, sitting at an outdoor terrace looking over Stanford’s hacienda-like sandstone campus, he told me, “There’s a growing belief among students and their parents alike that a college education is direct preparation for a job, rather than an opportunity to deepen one’s personality or to create engaged, thinking citizens.” The challenge is to entice students largely interested in other things back into the humanities.

    “The right question isn’t ‘Why aren’t our students reading the Federalist Papers?’ It’s ‘Why are our students primarily doing problem sets without reading much of anything at all?’ ” he said.”

    Full article is at https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/04/03/culture_war_and_peace_at_stanford.html

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  9. Ron,
    My reading of that excerpt you provide is that it is tragic.
    The parasites of the left have won completely.
    They have stolen our Western heritage and replaced it with shallow classes on secular dogma.
    All the schools seem good for is indictrinating more parasites and training technocrats.

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  10. What is becoming very clear is that the climate change community has it backwards.
    It is not that democratic societies are not up to solving “climate change”.
    It is rather that the climate change community has failed democratic society.
    They are incapable of honestly or openly communicating their concerns.
    They are only capable of demanding that everyone do as the ccc says or else.
    Dialog, tolerance, reason, compromise: the ccc rejects all of these and other fundamentals of civil society.
    On that alone the ccc is worth rejecting.
    This Canadian bit of fear mongering is just the latest example.

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  11. There are two basic reasons that Canada has warmed by twice the global average since 1948.

    First is that Canada is an area of land. The recent warming phase has shown considerably more warming on land than in ocean. This is from HADCRUT4

    Second is that Canada is in the North of the Northern Hemisphere. Last year I split the HADCRUT4 data into 8 bands of latitude.

    The Western and Central border with the USA is at 49N. The Southern Border of the Yukon, North West and Nanavut Territories is at 60N. The most southerly major city is Toronto at 44N. Therefore, much of Canada had early twentieth century warming, then mid-century cooling, then warming of a similar magnitude to the early twentieth century.
    The Canadian Report confirms the global trend in section 4.2.1.1 on page 125.

    The largest increases in the annual mean temperature were in the northwest, where it increased by more than 3ºC in some areas. Annual mean temperature over northern Canada increased by 2.3ºC (likely range 1.7 ºC–3.0ºC) from 1948 to 2016, or roughly three times the global mean warming rate. Warming was much weaker in the southeast of Canada,
    where average temperature increased by less than 1ºC in some maritime areas.

    That is, the biggest rises in average temperatures were in or near the Arctic. Southeast of Canada, by the coast, warming was near the global average.

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  12. Pingback: Warming in Canada is making temperatures less extreme | ManicBeancounter

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