The BBC obligingly reports on a Canadian government analysis of the national warming trend which concludes that warming since 1948 is twice the global average and is mostly due to greenhouse gases expelled by industries and homes. Which is convenient, because Turdeau is currently expanding the regressive socialist carbon tax to include another four provinces.
Canada is warming on average at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the world, a new scientific report indicates.
The federal government climate report also warns that changes are already evident in many parts of the country and are projected to intensify.
Canada’s Arctic has seen the deepest impact and will continue to warm at more than double the global rate.
The report suggests that many of the effects already seen are probably irreversible.
Canada’s annual average temperature has warmed by an estimated 1.7C (3F) since 1948, when nationwide temperatures were first recorded.
The largest temperature increases have been seen in the North, the Prairies, and in northern British Columbia.
Annual average temperature in northern Canada increased by approximately 2.3C.
“While both human activities and natural variations in the climate have contributed to the observed warming in Canada, the human factor is dominant,” the report states.
“It is likely that more than half of the observed warming in Canada is due to the influence of human activities.”
Far be it for me to suggest that this is perhaps less like science and more like opportunist government propaganda to make what is a very bitter pill in the form of naked socialist regressive tax policy a little easier to swallow. So I will just leave this here, with you, dear readers, to make up your own minds:
Globally, 2014 and 2015 were the two warmest years on record. At odds with these global records, eastern Canada experienced pronounced annual cold anomalies in both 2014 and 2015, especially during the 2013/14 and 2014/15 winters. This study sought to contextualize these cold winters within a larger climate context in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Toronto winter temperatures (maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and mean Tmean) for the 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons were ranked among all winters for three periods: 1840/41–2015 (175 winters), 1955/56–2015 (60 winters), and 1985/86–2015 (30 winters), and the average warming trend for each temperature metric during these three periods was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Thiel–Sen slope estimation.
Overall, Toronto winter temperatures have warmed considerably since winter 1840/41. The Mann–Kendall analysis showed statistically significant monotonic trends in winter Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean over the last 175 and 60 years. These trends notwithstanding, there has been no clear signal in Toronto winter temperature since 1985/86.
Within the past 30 years, the significant warming trends in Toronto winter temperature appear to have broken down. While this could simply be the case of a signal being lost in the noise of an increasingly varied seasonal weather series, it is possible that some external driver is influencing Toronto winter temperatures. This study examined some of the myriad factors that influence Toronto winter temperatures, including the urban heat island affect, major global circulation pattern teleconnections, and the polar jet stream.
For the Canadian Arctic, the available meteorological seriesof data are particularly short and most cover only the period after World War II.
The results showed that air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic from 1819 to 1859 were not as exceptionally cold as has been suggested by some analyses of proxy data (Koerner, 1977; Overpecket al., 1997). This conclusion is confirmed by the fact that the majority of the mean monthly air temperatures lie within one standard deviation (SD) from the modern mean (Figure 2), and only in a few cases do they exceed the level of two SDs.
Both kinds of data (monthly and daily) clearly show that the Canadian Arctic in the nineteenth century(1819 – 1859) was colder than today, but the average annual temperature during this period was only about 0.7°C lower in comparison with the present-day (1961 – 1990) value. It was also shown that in the period from 1819 to 1832, the annual temperatures were warmer than in the 1850s by about 0.3°C. In the annual course, the greatest differences between the mentioned time periods occurred in winter and spring. During the first period, significantly warmer winter and colder springs were noted. Throughout the whole study period, the majority of mean monthly and daily temperatures lie within one SD from the modern mean.(2) The most typical features in the annual courses of air temperature in the study period were very cold winter months (December to February, 1.5 – 2.5°C below today’s norm) and warm springs and early summers (April to June, 0.3 – 2.7°C above today’s norm).
What these studies do is confirm that reliable instrumental data, especially in Northern Canada, is only available after WWII, so the observed warming trend from 1948 – attributed almost entirely to GHGs – may or may not be exceptional in terms of the long term variability of climate in Canada. They confirm that in Toronto at least, the urban heat island effect, natural variability and changes in circulation patterns (the jet stream) may have been very significant contributors to observed trends and that no significant warming of winter temperatures occurred during the period 1985-2015 – when CO2 was increasing fastest. They confirm that mean annual temperature trends in Canada are heavily influenced by seasonal variability, which suggests natural influences more than GHG global warming. They confirm that the 19th century wasn’t quite as cold as some suggest and indeed that in the early 19th century, it was significantly warmer than in the mid-19th century. Turdeau can’t blame carbon emissions for that – well, he could, I suppose. You don’t need common sense, science and observations when you’ve got regressive socialism. Ask AOC.