It is two years since I reviewed the BBC’s enthusiastic narrative around Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2023. I don’t know what happened last year or how and why I missed it, but with the release of Ember’s latest review it’s time to take another look.
As I pointed out two years ago, Ember are a campaigning organisation with an agenda, though the BBC preferred to describe them as “energy analysts”. Whilst technically true, to refer to them thus without adding in the fact that they are heavily invested in the climate crisis narrative, as are many of their funders, the BBC description might be considered a little economical with the truth. This time round the BBC has chosen to describe Ember as a “think-tank”. I take little, if any, issue with the BBC report, the headline to which (“Clean energy’s share of world’s electricity reaches 40%, report says”) accurately and non-sensationally summarises the main point Ember seeks to make in its report. Bizarrely, Reuters’ version runs with a headline which doesn’t seem to be accurate: “Renewables provided record 32% of global electricity in 2024, Ember says”).
Unusually too, the Guardian’s report is perhaps a little less enthusiastic than I might have expected, and even contains some downbeat commentary:
Overall, solar power remains a relatively small part of the global energy system. It made up almost 7% of the world’s electricity last year, according to Ember, while wind power made up just over 8% of the global power system.
The fast-growing technologies remain dwarfed by hydro power, which has remained relatively steady in recent years, and made up 14% of the world’s electricity in 2024.
And:
…Ember had previously predicted that 2023 would be the year in which emissions from electricity reached a peak, after a plateau in the first half of the year.
Climate experts hoped then that emissions would begin to fall, but a series of heatwaves across the globe ignited a surge in demand for electricity to power air conditioning and refrigeration systems, which caused fuel electricity to grow by 1.4% that year.
The report, which accounted for 93% of the global electricity market across 88 countries, found that the surge in demand pushed emissions from the global power sector up by 1.6% to an all-time high last year.
And a look at Ember’s report confirms that things aren’t going quite so well as Ember’s previous reports might have led us to believe would be the case, and the Guardian’s downbeat information is confirmed by the report:
In 2024, global fossil generation increased by 245 TWh (+1.4%) – comparable to the increases of 246 TWh in 2023 and 201 TWh in 2022. This rise in fossil generation led to a 1.6% increase in global power sector emissions (+223 million tonnes of CO2), which reached a record high of 14.6 billion tonnes of CO2. However, Ember’s analysis shows that fossil generation rose primarily as a result of hotter temperatures compared to 2023.
I love that. Blame it on the heat. Ember claimed that these emissions should have peaked by now, they believe that climate change means it’s getting hotter, but when emissions didn’t peak as expected, it’s because it’s, er, getting hotter, as expected. Then we get what’s pretty much a re-run of their findings two years ago. The reality is that nothing’s changing:
The world’s three largest power consumers – China, India and the US – saw an increase in fossil generation in 2024, while the world’s fourth largest, the EU, saw a decline.
China was still the country with the largest increase in fossil generation, but – despite the impacts of heatwaves – 2024’s growth of 116 TWh was less than a third of its 2023 increase (+367 TWh) and only half its average annual increase over the last five years (+218 TWh).
India’s fossil generation grew by 67 TWh in 2024, significantly lower than the 124 TWh increase recorded in 2023 and the country’s lowest increase since the rebound after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Actually, one thing is changing. Growing demand for fossil fuels in the USA can be added to the ongoing demand in (inter alia) China and India:
Driven by a rise in electricity demand, the US also saw an increase in fossil generation (+34 TWh) in 2024. Gas generation rose significantly, as coal saw a moderate fall. This represents a rebound from 2023 which saw a year-on-year decline in fossil generation amid falling demand. US gas generation growth was equivalent to 57% of the global increase in gas generation in 2024. Despite record clean electricity growth, the US has now recorded an increase in fossil generation in three out of the last four years.
Ember is massively enthusiastic about the potential for solar and battery storage to transform the situation and to enable renewables to continue to grow at a rapid rate. And they may well be correct in this, but the problem is while some of the developed world (probably no longer including the USA) seeks to “decarbonise”, this necessarily involves greater electricity demand, which the growth in renewables will struggle to meet. More to the point, perhaps, there is a growing global demand for more energy, which is higher than previously forecast (isn’t it always?):
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) current outlooks for future electricity demand envisage higher levels of demand growth than was previously expected. The IEA’s STEPS scenario released in October 2024 forecasts annual demand growth of 3.3% between 2023 and 2030, higher than the 2.7% growth they forecast in 2023 between 2022 and 2030. The upgrade to 3.3% annual growth equates to an additional 1,687 TWh of annual electricity demand by 2030, with the IEA citing increased expectations for demand from data centres as well as increased power usage for cooling, alongside electric mobility and light industrial consumption.
More recent analyses point to even faster growth. In February 2025, the IEA published a a short-term forecast for the years 2025-2027, in which total generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.7% annually.
Ember also highlights uncertainties with regard to expectations of demand growth and with regard to renewables’ ability to meet the growing demand (they continue to believe it will, even though their past predictions in this regard have consistently proved to be wrong). This little snippet is particularly interesting:
Weather conditions can also impact the supply of clean generation: wind and hydro conditions in 2024 were both below the long-term average. If global weather conditions in 2024 had been in line with the five-year average, wind generation would have been 3.7% higher (+92 TWh) and hydro generation would have been 2% higher (+86 TWh). How these factors interact in the coming years will significantly determine the scale of fossil generation declines.
If, as some believe, hydropower will be constrained by more frequent droughts, and wind power will be constrained by declining wind speeds, then Ember’s optimistic outlook will prove once again to be too optimistic. It will also cast doubt on the wisdom of continuing to hurtle down the renewables road. Indeed, in Europe last year, wind generation struggled:
Wind generation growth was more modest in Europe in 2024 than in 2023, with Germany and France seeing falls of 4 and 5 TWh respectively. Although capacity additions continued in 2024 in these countries, less favourable wind conditions than in 2023 led to lower-than-expected generation.
I have to keep reminding myself that the Ember report is about the sources of electricity generation, and the levels of electricity generated and predicted to be generated, rather than about fossil fuel emissions generally. And so, while it is – with reason – hugely enthusiastic about the significant growth in renewables in China and India, the fact remains that this is not having the effect of preventing increased fossil fuel use in both of those countries:
India’s electricity demand has tripled in the last two decades, while China’s has quadrupled. Fast paced clean electricity deployment is now breaking a long-term trend, as fossil generation is no longer growing at the same rate as electricity demand. This decoupling is happening because a growing share of demand growth is being met by an expansion of clean sources rather than fossil generation.
It would be truly astonishing (and terrifying for those who believe in a climate crisis caused by humankind’s use of fossil fuels) if the demand for fossil fuels was growing as quickly in China and India as their demand for electricity is growing. Yet the fact remains that demand for fossil fuels is increasing in both of those countries, with a view to generating electricity and for use other than with regard to generating electricity. For instance, the International Energy Agency (not my favourite source for information, but one which can be relied on not to downplay the success of renewables) tells us that in 2022 coal generated 61% of China’s total energy supply, while oil supplied 17.9% and natural gas supplied 7.8%. It also tells us that in 2022 coal generated 46% of India’s total energy supply, oil supplied 20.4% and natural gas supplied 5%. And while the Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association might be just as agenda-driven as Ember, it tells us:
India faces a significant challenge to transition to a low carbon energy future. The world’s sixth largest economy is still dependent on fossil fuels for more than 88% of its primary energy needs.
India overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023 and its energy consumption is forecast to nearly double by 2040. The steep growth curve reflects a continued rise in energy needs per capita as wealth grows with development. Currently, India’s per capita energy use is around one third of the global average.
The country has the world’s fifth largest reserves of coal which continues to dominate the country’s primary energy mix (55%), mainly used for power generation – coal supplied more than 75 per cent of India’s electricity in 2023.
Do we trust S&P Global to be completely disinterested and to offer more accurate forecasts than Ember? I don’t know, but they don’t have a particularly optimistic outlook with regard to fossil fuel emissions in 2025. This (“2025 Energy Outlook: Surging primary demand to outpace clean energy growth”) was written just four months ago:
Global primary energy demand is set to rise by over 8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, outstripping clean energy growth and increasing greenhouse gas emissions…
The outlook identifies 10 key themes to track, leading with the re-election of Donald Trump as US President and ranging from the impact of data centers on power demand to the possible peaking of global gasoline demand….
….An anticipated surge in primary demand is not matched by clean energy supply, leading to an expected rise in fossil fuel consumption by over 3 million boe/d, the outlook says.
This imbalance will likely push CO2 emissions to new heights, albeit at the smallest increase rate since the pandemic, it says.
“While the supply of clean energy is growing faster than it ever has in history (over 5 million boe/d), it is not yet fast enough to curtail the growth in fossil fuel demand, let alone displace existing fossil fuel consumption,” it says….
The reference to President Trump is intriguing. Four months on, with the markets in tariff-driven turmoil, I wonder if their analysis has altered? If the developed world (especially the USA) buys solar panels from China in smaller numbers than to date, will manufacturing in Europe and the US step up to the plate, or will the rapid growth of solar go into decline everywhere except in China?
India is certainly investing in renewables, but still we find this (within the Ember report):
India’s coal-fired power generation also continued to rise, almost doubling from 2012 (787 TWh) to 2024 (1,534 TWh). In 2018, India overtook the US to become the second-largest coal generator, and now has more than twice the coal generation of the US.
As a result, power sector emissions continue to rise, reaching 1,457 MtCO2 in 2024. This makes India the world’s third-largest power sector emitter, although emissions per capita remain well below the global average.
In any event, the bottom line remains that for all the growth of renewables in generating electricity globally, electricity as a proportion of global energy isn’t growing very quickly at all. To the best of my knowledge we await a 2025 review of World Energy in 2024 by the Energy Institute, but we do have the 2024 review of the 2023 statistics. This tells us that:
Total primary energy consumption increased by 2% over its 2022 level, 0.6% above its ten-year average and over 5% above its 2019 pre-COVID level.
Fossil fuel consumption as a percentage of primary energy dropped 0.4% to 81.5%.
…consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever and coal demand beat the previous year’s record level.
Ember’s conclusions are the same as in previous years (remember that their track record for making predictions isn’t great). I love the whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up, given that fossil fuels continue to be used to generate more electricity than ever, while fossil fuel use as a proportion of primary energy is declining at a rate that suggests we will still be using fossil fuels in large amounts in 2100, never mind 2050:
Any near-term increases in fossil fuel generation should not be mistaken for failure of the energy transition. As we pass the tipping point where clean generation structurally outpaces demand growth, any changes to fossil fuel generation over the short-term will mostly reflect fluctuations in weather, as seen in 2024 with the impacts of heatwaves. But while changes in fossil generation in the short-term may be noisy, the direction and ultimate destination are unmistakable. The global energy transition is no longer a question of if, but how fast.
Of course it’s possible that they may be correct, but since to date they usually aren’t, my money is on their conclusions proving to be hopelessly optimistic. I’ll try to remember to re-visit the subject this time next year.
Climate Scepticism 
“This time round the BBC has chosen to describe Ember as a “think-tank”. I take little, if any, issue with the BBC report, the headline to which (“Clean energy’s share of world’s electricity reaches 40%, report says”) ….”
From that Ember report we learn “Hydro remained the largest source of clean electricity, providing 14.3% of global electricity generation in 2024 …”
Also the BBC: “Hydroelectricity is a hidden source of methane emissions. These people want to solve that
…..Often regarded as one of the oldest forms of renewable energy, hydroelectric dams and their reservoirs are responsible for the release the equivalent of almost one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (with much of these greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane) as water approaches and then tumbles its way through the turbines that generate electricity. Methane is a greenhouse gas that’s more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year lifespan, but it also breaks down faster in the atmosphere than CO2.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240326-how-hydroelectric-dams-are-a-hidden-source-of-carbon-emissions
It will be fun reading the BBC’s Stage 1a Complaints knee-jerk rebuttal that one of its stories doesn’t contradict the other.
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Is somebody keeping track of our generation figures vs cost ? This morning we have an increase in the Other (nuclear and biomass) portion of the chart, does this help keep the cost down (79) or give it a more ‘ clean energy’ look.
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JamesS,
I hope someone is keeping track of the cost, but I don’t think the governments in Holyrood and Westminster are as interested in this as they should be.
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Mark,
I cannot understand this report’s obsession with India, China and the USA. Surely the world’s fate rests with the UK’s moral leadership, and it is doing splendidly.
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John,
I am a critic of Ember, and I think my criticism is fair. However, I acknowledge that the people there do understand which countries matter when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions and the proposed energy transition.
Thus they are correct to focus on China, India and the USA. In addition, numerous other countries receive honourable (or dishonourable) mentions in the report. I may have missed it, but I cannot find a single reference to the UK in the text, and only a couple of graphs listing various countries’ proportion of electricity generated by wind mention the UK in passing.
Yes, that’s how important the UK is, and how vital our “leadership” is.
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Mark – as usual, thanks for digging into the clean energy morass.
Partial quote from that Guardian link –
“The world used clean power sources to meet more than 40% of its electricity demand last year for the first time since the 1940s, figures show.
A report by the energy thinktank Ember said the milestone was powered by a boom in solar power capacity, which has doubled in the last three years.
The report found that solar farms had been the world’s fastest-growing source of energy for the last 20 consecutive years.
Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director, said: “Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition. Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”
Overall, solar power remains a relatively small part of the global energy system. It made up almost 7% of the world’s electricity last year, according to Ember, while wind power made up just over 8% of the global power system.”
Some “engine of the global energy transition” then Phil.
Never mind, Ember has it’s finger on the global power pulse, as you quote at the end –
“But while changes in fossil generation in the short-term may be noisy, the direction and ultimate destination are unmistakable. The global energy transition is no longer a question of if, but how fast.“
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dfhunter, the conclusion in the Ember report is, IMO, misinformation, since it is at odds with the facts. As I mentioned at the end of my piece:
Total primary energy consumption increased by 2% over its 2022 level, 0.6% above its ten-year average and over 5% above its 2019 pre-COVID level.
Fossil fuel consumption as a percentage of primary energy dropped 0.4% to 81.5%.
…consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever and coal demand beat the previous year’s record level.
Ember’s conclusions are the same as in previous years (remember that their track record for making predictions isn’t great). I love the whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up, given that fossil fuels continue to be used to generate more electricity than ever, while fossil fuel use as a proportion of primary energy is declining at a rate that suggests we will still be using fossil fuels in large amounts in 2100, never mind 2050…
The direction of travel is indeed towards renewables, but it can’t fill the generation gap as demand grows rapidly, and the use of fossil fuels continues to increase. That isn’t short-term noise, it’s current reality, and IMO is likely to be so for the foreseeable future. Another factor that Ember ignores, but which we in the UK are painfully aware of, is the increasing disruption and cost imposed on electricity grids once renewables start to dominate. They may have a modest and useful role in supplementing our sources of electricity, but once that role becomes dominant, renewables become a problem rather than the solution. As that becomes apparent around the world, I reckon the “rush” to renewables will slow down dramatically – at least until such time as large-scale electricity storage issues are resolved.
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Mark, as the EROEI (energy return on energy invested) with current renewables is so poor when their grid back-up is included, can there ever be a rational widespread “energy transition” from fossil fuels to current renewables?
My question does not preclude the possibility that better renewables technology (i.e. having higher EROEI and at reasonable cost) will be invented in the future. However, as an engineer, I wonder why such technology has not yet appeared when there are so many relevant subsidies/grants to be had in the Western world; is there perhaps a fundamental physical limit, I wonder. Regards, John C.
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I am trying to find a very short summary of UK climate/energy policy that encompasses its madness of appearing to be environmentally sustainable while, in reality, being of low EROEI at very high cost. So far I have:-
“Kerching in Beijing ‘cos China wastes energy so we don’t have to!”
But I bet Clisceppers can do much better. Regards, John C.
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It’s almost as though the BBC has joined the ranks of the sceptics – an interesting read, not just because it talks about India’s ongoing reliance on coal, and its significant GHG emissions, but because it also explores the problems associated with renewables:
“India can’t wish away coal – but can it be made cleaner?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpd184g6dj8o
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“China burning coal at record high levels in 2025 — report
China has expanded its use of coal energy more in the first half of 2025 than at any time in the past nine years. The spike comes despite massive renewable capacity and threatens climate goals.”
https://www.dw.com/en/china-burning-coal-at-record-high-levels-in-2025-report/a-73753189
China burned more coal at power plants between January and July of 2025 than at any time since 2016, despite massive renewable capacity, according to new environmental research report.
The report — published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finland-based independent air-quality research organization; and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a US-based energy analytics company — says China put 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power online in the first six months of 2025.
That is the highest six-month level in nine years. The CREA/GEM report also cites new construction and re-firing of existing coal plants totaling 46 GW and proposed projects with the capacity to produce a further 75 GW.
Total projected coal plant output is forecast to hit between 80-100 GW in 2025….
…Beijing’s push has led to a 1% drop in six-month emissions year-on-year, according to the UK-based climate and energy website Carbon Brief, yet China’s increased reliance on coal threatens to derail its pursuit of gas emissions reductions.
“Despite a rapidly changing capacity and generation mix, coal power construction in China shows no sign of easing,” wrote CREA.
“Coal power development in China… shows no sign of easing, leaving emissions on a high plateau and stranding coal in the system for years to come,” echoed Christine Shearer, research analyst at GEM and co-author of the report....
…Despite Xi’s pledge to remove 30 GW of coal from China’s grids between 2020 and the end of 2025, only 1 GW has been taken offline.…
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“Renewables overtake coal as world’s biggest source of electricity”
BBC link. Justin Rowlatt getting very excited about the new Ember report. (He does not trouble to link to it, so I have.)
The spin is real – all the renewables are lumped into one basket – wind, solar, bioenergy, and hydro, and together they outweigh coal.
According to Ember, China has cut its coal use. How does this square with Mark’s comment above?
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Jit,
Thanks for the link. I always assume (rightly or wrongly) that if the Guardian or BBC make a big story about a report, then fail to supply a link to said report, it’s because they don’t want you to read it, in case you take away a message other than that which they want to push at you.
There is no doubt that renewables are growing – in some countries at least, most obviously China – at a remarkable rate. But demand for energy continues to grow rapidly, and it should never be forgotten that Ember reports such as this one are dealing only with sources of electricity generation, not with overall energy use and supply. It may well be that the tide is slowly turning on electricity generation, but it will be decades before renewables overtake fossil fuels as the main source of electricity generation globally. Goodness only knows when, if ever, we will reach the stage where renewables account for more energy use globally than fossil fuels (which is a very different thing).
This is what AI has to say about that:
Electricity accounted for approximately 20-21% of global final energy consumption in recent years (around 2021-2024), with projections showing this share increasing to nearly 30% by 2030 and potentially over 50% by 2050 in high-ambition scenarios aligned with 1.5°C warming targets. This growth is driven by the electrification of transport, industry, and residential sectors, and is seen as a key strategy for decarbonizing the economy.
Current Trends (2021-2024)
This is also interesting from the Ember report:
Global CO2 emissions from the power sector fell marginally by 12 MtCO2 (-0.2%) to 6,963 MtCO2 in the first half of 2025. The decline was possible because solar and wind power exceeded demand growth and led to a slight fall in fossil fuel use. Without solar and wind growth, emissions would have risen by an estimated 236 MtCO2 (+3.9%) globally, which is equivalent to almost all emissions (251 MtCO2) from Africa in H1-2025.
At the country level, there was significant variation. Among the four economies that account for the majority of global emissions (64%), emissions fell in China (-46 MtCO2, -1.7%) and India (-24 MtCO2, -3.6%), as clean electricity outpaced growth in demand in those countries.
In contrast, emissions rose in the EU (+13 MtCO2, +4.8%), where strong growth in solar was outweighed by shortfalls in wind, hydro and bioenergy, leading to higher gas and coal generation. Emissions also rose in the US (+33 MtCO2, +4.3%), as clean electricity growth was smaller than demand growth, leading to an increase in coal generation, which was exacerbated by gas-to-coal switching.
Of course, references to emissions are to emissions associated with electricity generation, not to emissions overall. Given also that we’re constantly been told by the Guardian and the BBC that India is experiencing ever hotter springs and summers, this is also interesting, as part of the reason why Ember says the situation in India is more temporary and less structural than in Chinas:
This slowdown [in demand for electricity] reflected more measured industrial growth, as well as milder weather that reduced cooling demand. Air conditioning is estimated to account for about 50 GW, or 20% of India’s maximum power load, hence having a significant impact on demand.
Ember estimates that if temperatures had been similar to H1-2024, particularly in April, May and June, demand would have increased by about 3.5% (+32 TWh).….
Anyway, thanks for highlighting the report. I will be away for a few days, so won’t in a position to write about this until next week. Fill your boots if you are so inclined, otherwise I may have something more to say about this next week.
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The Guardian also has an article on the Ember report:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/07/global-renewable-energy-generation-surpasses-coal-first-time
From it, this is interesting:
…By contrast, demand for electricity in the US outpaced its growing renewables sector, leading to a 17% increase in coal generation in the first half of the year.
In the EU, demand showed only modest growth compared with the first half of last year, but a weather-related slump in wind and hydro power meant even fast-rising solar power could not prevent gas and coal generation increasing by 14% and 1.1% respectively.
Little wonder that last time I looked the EU had failed to file an updated NDC with the UN ahead of COP30!
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Jit; Mark; A quick look at Our World in Data shows that coal generation in China has grown every year, although its share of the total has declined as other sources have also grown:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked?country=~CHN
Scrolling across the chart shows the figures for each source by year.
Including hydro flatters the numbers for renewables, of course. The reality is that China is increasing output from all sources except oil. The growth in renewables is less than the overall increase in output: they are not even keeping up with new demand, let alone reducing coal generation.
We often see headlines about the growth of wind and solar in China which focus on installed capacity. However its the generation figures which tell the real story.
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