This has been sitting on my laptop for a week or two, so I thought I’d post it here. I may add more dates, whether inside the existing timeline or after it. If any Clisceppers know of anything I’ve missed, I would be grateful for an alert.
| Date | Event |
| 2011 | Phillip Hammond was Transport Sec when the original announcement of the end of sales of conventional cars by 2040 was made. (Can’t find the announcement; it was on 21st September 2011 that Hammond gave a speech in Japan, which described the £5,000 grant for plug-in vehicles.) |
| 26 July 2017 | Michael Gove announces the end of petrol and diesel car sales by 2040. BBC headline: “New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK” |
| July 2017: Gov’t document: “UK plan for tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations” | The government has already taken significant action to improve air quality. The UK was the first country in the world to announce in 2011 our intention that conventional car and van sales would end by 2040, and for almost every car and van on the road to be a zero emission vehicle by 2050. Note the framing here: to reduce NO2 concentrations, not to avert climate change. |
| 11 September 2017 | BBC headline: “Volkswagen plans electric option for all models by 2030” VW will double investment in zero-emission vehicles to 20bn euros (£18bn) as it seeks to put the diesel emissions scandal behind it. … Speaking at the Frankfurt motor show, Volkswagen chief Matthias Mueller told the BBC the firm had “got the message”. “Customers want clean vehicles. People want to have clean air, and we want to make our contribution here,” he said. The German firm, whose brands include Seat and Skoda, also said it would place orders worth more than 50bn euros for batteries to power the cars. |
| 4 February 2020 | BBC headline: “How will the petrol and diesel car ban work?” The Committee on Climate Change believes the cost of electric cars will be similar to that of petrol or diesel vehicles by 2024-25. [Wrong. See some comparisons below.] |
| November 2020 Government document (Worth reading to behold the level of delusion that was, and still is, in the high minds of the mighty.) | The Green Industrial Revolution: sale of ICE cars to be banned in 2030. In three years, the time horizon has been shortened by a decade. The announcement of the ten-point plan was made in the run-up to COP26. The PM was Boris Johnson, and the Business Secretary (and head honcho of COP26) was Alok Sharma. “From 2030 we will end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, 10 years earlier than planned. However, we will allow the sale of hybrid cars and vans that can drive a significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe until 2035.“ It sounds as if cars would be allowed to continue being sold until 2035 unless they were producing soot, but that wasn’t the case. As a Freudian slip, I originally wrote “ten pint plan.” Which seems happy luck, as it is a perfect description of the GIR. |
| 20 September 2023 Sunak blinks. (Cliscep link, with full speech) | The ban on sales of ICE cars is pushed back to 2035. However, the small print says that the green juggernaut rolls on. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak: “People are already choosing electric vehicles to such an extent that we’re registering a new one every 60 seconds. But I also think that at least for now, it should be you the consumer that makes that choice, not government forcing you to do it.“ He omits to mention that the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, with a sliding permitted quota of ICE vehicles each year from 2024, will shortly be announced. The allowable 2024 quota of ICEs will be 78% of sales. By 2030, it is 20%. Sunak might also have mentioned that most of the sales are to fleet buyers, and that by and large, private citizens are not interested. |
| 16 October 2023 Sunak blunk (Cliscep link.) | The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate is announced in the Commons by Transport Secretary Mark Harper. Harper: “…today we have laid another world-leading piece of legislation: the zero-emission vehicle mandate. Manufacturers will now meet minimum targets of clean car production, starting with 22% next year and reaching 80% by 2030.“ Other pithy phrases include “…manufacturers are on board. They will deliver a mandate that they helped shape…” I hope the manufacturers remember that, when they all go bust. |
| 4 December 2023 Hansard link. | The Commons votes on the ZEV order. The vote is carried 381 to 37. Telegraph: David Jones, a former Cabinet minister who voted against the measure, said it “completely negates” Mr Sunak’s pledge to delay net zero targets. He told The Telegraph: “[The vote] took everybody by surprise. We all assumed that there was going to be a more sensible and gradual transition to net zero, and this has completely undone that. |
| 4 July 2024 | Labour wins the General Election. Their manifesto commitment is to reinstate the 2030 cut-off for conventional vehicles. |
As noted, the CCC thought that there would be price parity between EVs and ICEs by 2024-5. Looking at Carwow today (24.xi.2024) that is not yet the case, despite manufacturers’ urgency to shift EVs.
Hyundai Kona from: £23,042
Hyundai Kona EV from: £31,958
Differential: about 39%
BMW 4 Series from: £40,754
BMW i4 from: £45,982
About 13% more.
Vauxhall Corsa: £17,487
Vauxhall Corsa Electric: £23,756
About 36% more.
[Go https://www.carwow.co.uk/ and add to the URL the name of your favourite manufacturer for a list of deals on all models.]
Climate Scepticism 
Sorry for the centred text. On the design window, it’s left justified; in preview window, and as published, it changes its mind.
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The price differential is closer to a fixed cost than a % uplift. So if you don’t mind the other limitations and inconveniences of an EV and you’re thinking of a new Range Rover or Porsche at ~£100k, an extra few grand is neither here nor there. If you’re an average joe looking at a new Corsa it’s a huge obstacle.
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Jit: that covers the key points. I have a few tweaks to suggest:
The ZEV mandate includes vans but starting at 10% of sales. I haven’t looked at the progression but I guess it’s slower than for cars.
On the financial aspects, there used to be grants for installing chargers – not sure when they were phased out. Of more significance are the massive tax breaks for companies and their employees who take on EVs as company cars.
The difference in purchase prices gets a lot of airtime but it’s a bit of a non-issue because very few EVs are purchased outright. 80% of sales are to fleets and, of the private buyers, the majority use lease deals, PCPs, etc. It’s all about the monthlies!
We’re into an interesting phase now where the flow of used EVs onto the market is increasing as company leases expire. I’ve read that prices have more or less reached parity in the secondhand market. That makes used EVs attractive since they have much lower running costs, need minimal servicing, etc..
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I followed the link to the November 2020 document – good grief, it feels like light years ago, but it was just three years ago that we had Bojo pontificating in this ludicrous way (worth quoting in full, I think, to get the complete feel regarding the delusional nonsense that was then current. Sadly, if articulated differently, the delusional nonsense spoken by the current Labour government is no less delusional and no less nonsensical):
This year has taken a very different path from any we expected, but I have not lost sight of our ambitious plans to unite and level up our country.
Just as science will enable humanity to rout coronavirus, so we will use the UK’s extraordinary powers of invention to repair the economic damage and build back better. Now is the time to plan for a green recovery – with high-skilled high-paid jobs that offer the extra satisfaction of helping to make our nation cleaner, greener and more beautiful. [sic]
Imagine how our Green Industrial Revolution could transform life across our United Kingdom. You cook your breakfast using hydrogen power before getting in your electric car, having charged it overnight from batteries made in the Midlands. Around you the air is cleaner, and the trucks and trains, ships and planes are running on hydrogen or a synthetic fuel. British towns and regions — Teesside, Port Talbot, Merseyside and Mansfield — have become synonymous with green technology and the jobs they bring. This is where Britain’s ability to make hydrogen and capture carbon pioneered the decarbonisation of transport, industry and power.
This Ten Point Plan to get there will mobilise £12 billion of government investment, and potentially 3 times as much from the private sector, to create and support up to 250,000 green jobs. There will be electric vehicle technicians in the Midlands, construction and installation workers in the North East and Wales, specialists in advanced fuels in the North West, agroforestry practitioners in Scotland, and grid system installers everywhere. And we will help people train for these new green jobs through our Lifetime Skills Guarantee.
We will turn the UK into the world’s number one centre for green technology and finance, laying the foundations for decades of economic growth by delivering net zero emissions in a way that creates jobs and allows us to carry on living our lives. And we will harness Mother Nature’s ability to absorb carbon by planting 30,000 hectares of trees a year by 2025, and restore the abundance of nature by rewilding 30,000 football pitches worth of countryside.
The UK was the first major economy to embrace a legal obligation to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. I will establish Task Force Net Zero to take forward this national priority, and through next year’s COP26 Summit, we will urge countries and companies around the world to join us in delivering net zero globally.
We long ago proved that green and growth can go hand-in-hand. So let us meet the most enduring threat to our planet with one of the most innovative and ambitious programmes of job-creation we have known.
Apologies for wandering away from the EV mandate, which is the point of your excellent article, but of course it’s all wrapped up together. Making our lives more expensive, denying us choice, industrialising our countryside, destroying jobs – what’s not to like?
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Mark: that’s like something a kid would write after watching too much sci-fi and when high on sugar! As you say, the present crew are as bad or worse since they have the evidence of 4 years’ non-progress but are aiming to bring things forward.
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Yes, thanks for the correction Mike. I can’t believe I wrote “three years ago” regarding November 2020. I seem to have lost a year of my life. I blame covid and the lockdowns….
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Mike, you are right to point out that the running costs probably favour EVs (for those of us with off-street parking). But my reasoning for not mentioning that was that I interpreted the CCC’s comment as referring to purchase price. Of course, running costs are based on political choices, in particular fuel duty. Do we factor in depreciation? If so, the running costs go up, but the purchase price of second- or fourth-hand vehicles drops. It’s difficult to get a handle on things like that; purchase price is easy to measure, even if few people go to the showroom with a briefcase full of £50 notes.
Meanwhile, I noticed this ad while searching for sales prices:
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It’s worth highlighting your point from July 2017:
Note the framing here: to reduce NO2 concentrations, not to avert climate change.
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Jit; I’m sure you’re right about the CCC’s delusions. My comment about running costs was in the context of used car purchases. As for depreciation, it’s too early to tell what’s going to happen with used cars as, until recently, there were few second-hand EVs.
Salary sacrifice ssems to be very popular, going by what I have read, as it works with pre-tax income (aiui). There are pitfalls with things like pension contributions which can catch people out.
What I find extraordinary is that there has been no effort to calibrate the tax breaks to target lower-paid EV users rather than hosing money at company directors and well-paid professionals. That would save more than the winter fuel allowance, by my rough maths.
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This story isn’t going away. On the contrary, it keeps on growing. Is this what will sink the government’s insane net zero agenda?
‘Ford calls for incentives to buy electric cars as backlash grows”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98dzyy850jo
Ford UK has called on the government to introduce incentives to encourage drivers to buy electric vehicles (EVs) as an industry backlash grows over sales targets.
Lisa Brankin, Ford UK’s chair and managing director, told the BBC that without demand a government mandate to produce and sell more EVs “just doesn’t work”.
The comments add to a growing row between the government and the industry over the targets which firms say are too high for current EV demand.
The government has said it will launch a consultation on the targets but remains “absolutely committed” to a deadline to phase-out sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.
Ford is one of a number of vehicle-makers which are cutting jobs in the UK, due in part to the EV targets...
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That article is open to comments. The Great British public have the government’s number (and the previous government’s). I urge Clisceppers to skim them (it will have to be a skim, as there are >10,000 comments).
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The bad news keeps on coming:
“UK electric car production drops with firms ‘under pressure'”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9gk05d3jjo
UK car production fell sharply in October amid industry concerns about “intense pressure” on investment in electric vehicle-making.
Output of all cars dropped by more than 14,000 vehicles from a year earlier, mainly due to a fall in exports following weak demand, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.
Production of electric and hybrid vehicles declined by a third compared with last year, due to flagging European demand and the retooling of factories for new models.…
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Mark – partial quote from your BBC link –
“or every sale that pushes it outside the mandate, firms must pay a £15,000 fine – but they can also buy “credits” from firms that can meet this mandate.”
Since all UK/EU car makers are struggling with the mandate (which is going up each year), who can they buy “credits” from & how much will the “credits” cost?
Up the creek without a paddle or outboard springs to mind.
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“UK could loosen EV rules to allow sales of Prius-style hybrids until 2035
Ban on new petrol and diesel cars starts in 2030 but government may change rules for some models”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/29/uk-could-loosen-ev-rules-to-allow-sales-of-prius-style-hybrids-until-2035
Car manufacturers may be allowed to sell Toyota Prius-style hybrid models in the UK until 2035, as the government looks at ways to loosen electric vehicle sales rules.
Earlier this week the government launched a fast-track consultation to determine what types of electric vehicles carmakers can sell after a ban on new petrol and diesel cars, which is due to come into force from 2030.
The transport secretary, Louise Haigh, who resigned on Friday after it emerged she had been convicted of fraud in 2014 over a missing work phone, had been reported as being open to allowing the sale of “full hybrid” models that use a normal engine as well as a battery, according to the Financial Times....
…The Financial Times cited a government source who said that allowing the sale of full hybrids after 2030 would be a “break glass in case of emergency” scenario.
The consultation will also look at other areas of the ZEV mandate, including the “trading” loophole, which allows carmakers to buy credits from rivals to avoid fines, which could be expanded or extended.
Electric vehicles accounted for 18% of sales between January and October. That was below the headline 22% ZEV mandate threshold, but about in line with what they need to do once the loopholes are taken into account.
Full hybrid sales made up 13.5% of sales and plug-in hybrids accounted for 8.4% of car sales, according to sales data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
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Mark – can’t get my head around the % figures quoted. From the article I can find these definitions for EV hybrid variants –
“plug-in hybrid vehicles with larger batteries” (I assume they also have a normal engine but no engine recharge)
full hybrid vehicles use their engine to recharge instead of charging points.
The article then says – “Electric vehicles accounted for 18% of sales between January and October.
And ends with – “Full hybrid sales made up 13.5% of sales and plug-in hybrids accounted for 8.4% of car sales, according to sales data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.”
So that’s 21.9% for “Full hybrid & plug-in hybrids” + 18% for purely EV car sales = 39.9%.
I must be missing something, as 40% of the market seems to be far to high.
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dfhunter, maybe Mike H can enlighten us. I suspect 40% for EVs and hybrids of all types might not be too far off the mark, given how many cars these days aren’t purchased by end users, but are either company cars or are leased. But I don’t know.
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dfh/Mark: Here’s the SMMT’s market breakdown for October and the year to date:
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
Adding together battery and hybrid cars does reach about 40%. While fleet sales account for about 60% of the overall market, it’s been widely reported that it’s more like 80% for BEVs. I would expect the fleet portion of HEV and PHEV to be relatively high as well since they also attract BiK tax breaks but at a lower scale than BEVs.
Wrt the variants of “Hybrid”, it’s a complicated picture as there are quite a few configurations. Fwiw, my understanding is as follows:
Mild Hybrids: these use a small battery (usually 48V; a few kWh capacity) to improve the efficiency of the motor, whether diesel or petrol. They do this by running most/all ancilliaries off the battery instead of the engine and using the battery to give a small boost when moving off or accelerating hard. The battery is charged by the motor using an integrated starter/generator and can recuperate energy under braking. They usually cannot run under electric power alone although some can do very short distances.
Hybrids: these have a bigger battery using similar tech to full EVs, so 400/800V and 10+ kWh or more. There are a variety of configurations with manufacturers each doing it their way. In some cars the motor is not connected to the drive wheels – it just charges the battery. In others the motor or the battery can drive the wheels – or both when maximum power is required.
Plug-in hybrids: these are much the same as hybrids except for having the facility to charge from an external source and the batteries tend to be larger to maximise electric-only range and thus cost-saving vs self-charging. Some can run for 50 – 60 miles on battery alone which saves a lot on fuel (assuming home charging). In my view this is the category that the govt is likely to boost if/when it tweaks the ZEV mandate terms.
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MikeH – thanks for your reply, suppose I often forget how fleet sales contribute to EV sales.
Found this article from FleetNews 5 March 2024 – One in six new cars pure electric as fleet sales rise 27% year-on-year
With these partial quotes –
“However, the entirety of February’s increase was down to fleet and business registrations, with private uptake down 2.6% compared to February 2023. Year-to-date private sales are down by a worrying 11.4%.”
“Private car buyers have accounted for fewer than one in five (18.2%) new BEVs registered in 2024 so far, according to the SMMT. While BEV market share and volumes continue to grow during the first year of mandated targets for manufacturers, the increase in uptake is entirely sustained by fleets.”
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Liam Halligan in the Telegraph:
“Britain has a choice: amend the electric car mandate or let the industry go bust”
His conclusion:
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Jit – thanks for the link, good article & again the top comment out of 1273 nails it –
“Miss Scarlet 15 hrs ago
They don’t care
They don’t care about the job losses – not just Vauxhall, but the small businesses making components and the hairdressers and other self-employed whose customers are now jobless
They don’t care there isn’t enough electricity in the grid for everyone to drive electric
They don’t care that many many people have no off-street parking, or live in flats, so can’t charge at home
They don’t care that the cars are just too expensive – to buy, to insure, and with hideous depreciation, only really benefitting China
They don’t care about range anxiety or the paucity of functioning charging points when you’re out and about … or how long it takes to charge
And they certainly don’t care about the waste of rare natural resources or child labour in their rabid pursuit of the net-zero cult”
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Behind the Telegraph paywall, unfortunately:
“Britain has a choice: amend the electric car mandate or let the industry go bust
The UK’s net zero policies are now costing serious jobs – and threatening entire regional economies”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/01/britain-has-a-choice-amend-electric-car-mandate-go-bust/
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Mark; there’s a summary of the article on NALOPKT and the link opened the full article.
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Jaguar are going to buy back close to 3000 iPace cars manufactured in 2018 because of fire risk. They tried a recall but it seems to have failed:
https://insideevs.com/news/742670/jaguar-buying-back-ipace-fire/
That will put the cat in amongst the pigeons (sorry!).
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https://x.com/afneil/status/1863609519898579121
So which is it Neil? An obsession with Net Zero or a death wish on the automotive industry?
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No surprise here, except for the lack of coverage by the Beeb et al:
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/electric-car-makers-blasted-battery-material-mining-report
The EU is trying to improve things: “In an attempt to improve supply chain visibility, the European Union will launch a battery passport from 1 February 2027, needed for all EV batteries over 2kWh.”
Now we just need these groups to look into the mining, refining and manufacturing processes that produce rare earth components for wind turbines and polysilicon etc used in solar panels.
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Meanwhile, BBC headlines continue to try to put a positive spin on things:
“Electric cars make up one in four sold in November”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po
The devil, of course, is in the detail, and the sorry tale revealed by the story behind the headline isn’t remotely sustainable:
One in four cars sold in the UK last month was electric, according to industry figures, but new registrations were driven by steep discounting.
Electric car sales grew in November for the 11th consecutive month, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) as carmakers raced to meet tough targets.
Manufacturers gave “massive” discounts worth around £4bn on electric vehicles (EVs), the SMMT said.
However, companies will miss government sales targets for EVs this year and are likely to have to make huge payments to keep in line with the rules.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said manufacturers were investing in electric vehicles “at unprecedented levels” and “spending billions on compelling offers”.
But he added: “Such incentives are unsustainable – industry cannot deliver the UK’s world-leading ambitions alone.”…
...Manufacturers have said they won’t be able to meet the current targets, which state EV sales must make up 22% of cars sold in 2024, without more customer incentives. That figure is currently at 18.7%, and they think they may hit 19% by the end of the year.
However, that still leaves them open to paying other manufacturers who have built up credits for selling EVs.
While many of those companies are either Chinese or make cars in China – for example, US firm Tesla – other carmakers may also have credits.
Manufacturers have long argued that it doesn’t make sense to subsidise Chinese firms by buying credits.…
And in arguing that, manufacturers are quite correct.
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“Consultation launched over petrol car phase-out”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y7x3jgw7no
Some consultation! The decision has obviously been made to accelerate it to 2030, and the government isn’t interested in listening to a discussion about whether that’s a good idea. All it wants to know is how the automotive industry will achieve it, despite the damage it’s obviously already causing to the industry, merely by being on the horizon:
…Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is now seeking views from automotive and charging experts to “restore clarity” on how to deliver the ban….
...UK car production experienced a sharp decline in October 2024, with overall output dropping by over 15% compared to the previous year. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) attributed this fall to weak demand and a significant decrease in exports.
Electric and hybrid vehicle production saw an even steeper decline, falling by one-third due to flagging European demand and factory retooling for new models.…
This government says it’s committed to growing the economy, yet everything it does has the opposite effect. People have stopped buying new cars in the volumes they used to because of the proposed ban. Most cars made after 2000 are pretty much rust-free and can be very reliable if regularly serviced. Diesel engines, if looked after, will go for hundreds of thousands of miles. We now have two diesel vehicles. One with over 100,000 miles on the clock, and one with fewer than 10,000 miles. We have no plans to buy another new car now for a great many years, if ever. I suspect we are far from alone in our thinking.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/why-british-drivers-no-longer-want-a-new-car/
We’ve got a 26 year old Skoda diesel, a 25 year old Fiat Ducato diesel motorhome, both with very low miles, and have just bought a 2015 Ford 1.0 litre petrol, which is the newest car I’ve ever owned – and quite a culture shock actually driving the thing! I now expect this government to try and force me off the road using taxes. The younger generation are going to have their personal mobility severely restricted in the decades to come. But that was always the plan – nothing whatsoever to do with saving the planet or reducing air pollution.
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Jaime, I fear you are right – authoritarians always want more control, especially if they can make money from it. Which reminds me of a question that I have been meaning to ask for ages …
The WEF have told us that we are going to own nothing. So if we proles are going to own nothing, who is going to own everything? I fear that, contrary to WEF assertions, I will not be happy with the answer. Regards, John C.
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The BBC opened its article up to comments. The top one, liked by almost ten times as many people as gave it the thumbs down, is:
Until the infrastructure to support an entire population driving electric cars is sufficient, most people won’t switch.
Additionally, the massive amount of power required to keep them charged still has to come from somewhere, so their green credentials are not quite as high the industry would like us to believe.
There remains a lot of public scepticism, rightly so, and no amount of [re-]”education” (which we are told is all that’s needed) will deal with it.
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“Best-Selling Hybrids Face Net Zero Ban From 2030”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/12/24/best-selling-hybrids-face-net-zero-ban-from-2030/
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Only other thing I would add to the mix. How many small car service companies will survive this EV transition?
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dfhunter,
I actually think (assuming you’re referring to mechanics in garages) that they’ll be safe for some time. They can ban new car sales, but petrol and diesel cars are going to be around for a long time, slowly ageing, and needing lots of TLC from said mechanics.
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Small car manufacturers, on the other hand, probably stand very little chance. Here’s the BBC reporting on the proposed merger of Honda and Nissan (which also involves Mitsubishi), which they say is necessary to deal with the threat of cheap Chinese EVs:
The growing electric car market has been increasingly dominated by Chinese-made electric vehicles, including BYD, which have posed a threat to some of the world’s best known car firms…
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Mark – hope your right & yes I was (referring to mechanics in garages).
Rethinking what I meant – car mechanics are smart & can usually fix your petrol and diesel car if they can source replacement parts if needed. But as the car industry is forced down the EV path will replacement parts for petrol and diesel cars continue to be available I wonder.
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What a breathless and exciting headline in the Guardian:
“Record number of electric cars were sold in UK during 2024”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/04/record-number-of-electric-cars-were-sold-in-uk-during-2024
The only problem is the ZEV mandate and reality are in direct conflict, as the sceondary headline and much of the article make clear:
“Environmental groups urge government to keep tougher green targets despite industry claim they are unsustainable”
…However, sales have still been lower than expected, amid an industry-wide slowdown, as well as persistent concerns among some buyers over the higher upfront cost of electric cars and access to public chargers.
The UK government is preparing to relax sales targets for 2025 to avoid imposing steep fines on manufacturers under the country’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. A consultation on changing the rules will close in mid-February.…
...the SMMT’s chief executive, Mike Hawes, said there had been a “shortfall” in electric car sales, and that several carmakers had told him privately they might have to buy “credits” from rivals – another way to avoid fines. He said manufacturers were being forced into steep discounts to increase sales of electric cars, a situation that was “unsustainable”.
“The mandate doesn’t move markets,” Hawes said. “The targets have compelled the supply. They don’t compel the demand, and do not by themselves create the market – at least not a healthy one.”...
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“All carmakers in UK to escape fines for missing electric car sales targets in 2024
Analysts say use of ‘flexibilities’ to avoid penalties shows that zero-emissions mandate does not need to be relaxed”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/19/all-carmakers-in-uk-to-escape-fines-for-missing-electric-car-sales-targets-in-2024
No carmaker in the UK will have to pay fines for missing electric car sales targets in 2024, according to analysis.
All but one carmaker sold enough cars, or will be able to use so-called flexibilities, to avoid steep fines under the zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, according to estimates by T&E, a campaign group that focuses on transport and environment issues. One carmaker, Japan’s Suzuki, will have to buy credits from rivals to avoid fines.
But intense industry lobbying, based on fears that ZEV sales will fail to pick up significantly next year, is expected to persuade ministers to relax the scheme and help most manufacturers to avoid fines in 2026 also.
Brands including the top-selling Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota and Britain’s biggest carmaker, JLR, which runs Jaguar and Land Rover, are among those who will have to use additional loopholes to avoid fines, according to T&E’s analysis….
…In 2024, carmakers were given a headline target of 22% of sales being fully electric, rising to 28% this year and 80% in 2030. The actual level of battery sales achieved last year was a record 19.6%. However, the rules also contain major loopholes – described as “flexibilities” – that allow carmakers to earn credits by reducing the emissions of the fossil fuel cars they sell, as well as “borrowing” credits from future years.…
…“Manufacturers are having to make up the shortfall between the ambitions of the ZEV mandate and market realities, a gap which has already cost the industry around £4.5bn in discounts alone,” Hawes said. “This is a huge cost which cannot be sustained indefinitely but, with the mandate compelling EV market growth of around 50% this year, the costs look likely to increase even further, threatening jobs, market growth and business viability.”…
…A Ford spokesperson said the company would use the flexibilities and confirmed that “we do not anticipate the need to pay penalties”.
However, the company added: “In current market conditions the cost of compliance under the scheme is unsustainable. Consumer incentives are crucial to boost demand – especially in the van market, where uptake lags behind passenger vehicles.”
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Liam Halligan on the ZEV mandate in the Telegraph, if you can access that sort of thing.
“British carmakers’ switch to electric has descended into chaos
Carmakers are slowing down production because of green mandates – risking jobs and billions of pounds”
One small mistake he makes is to say that the original date for the end of conventional cars was 2030 – as noted above, it was 2040. Plus, he talks about hydrogen hybrids, which don’t sound like a goer to me. More a sort of “send more money and we’ll make it work” type deal.
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Jit: as well as the nonsense about hydrogen hybrids, that DT article stated that Chinese-made EVs have a 7% market share in the UK. That is tosh. Electric MGs, (some) Teslas, Volvos, Polestars and Minis are all imported from China, along with a growing number of their own brands.
Whenever I read an article which contains such a clear blunder, I lose confidence in its content. A few minutes research was clearly too much for this author making his opinion no better than me in the pub after a few!
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“UK ready to relax emission mandate after Nissan warning
Carmaker said zero-emission vehicle targets put manufacturing at its Sunderland plant at risk”
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/nissan-secures-relaxation-of-electric-vehicle-quota-73lzrrvwl
The government will relax mandatory quotas for electric cars after Nissan warned that excessively high targets and punitive fines were a risk to the Japanese company’s manufacturing in Sunderland, Britain’s biggest automotive plant.
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, told The Times after a meeting with Nissan that “a substantial change of policy” had been agreed and added: “We will do everything we can to make sure Nissan has that secure long-term future in the UK, making sure the business and regulatory environment reflects that.”
Reynolds said that the policy change had the support of Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, who has pushed for ambitious regulation to reduce carbon emissions. It will be seen as another defeat for Miliband, however, after indications that the government could support a third runway at Heathrow and the switching of promised funds away from green energy projects to pay for increased defence spending.
“The whole government is absolutely of the view that you will not get to the progress around net zero and the energy transition that we want to see by closing down British jobs and British industry,” said Reynolds, who went to school in Sunderland, where Nissan has its plant.
“We’re absolutely committed to being ambitious on the environment and climate but we’re totally committed to vehicles being made in the UK. [We’re] incredibly proud — some of the people I went to school with work in that Nissan factory — and the same is true of those iconic factories across the UK.”
The reform is to a system called the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, inherited from the Conservative government, which requires that 28 per cent of all sales in 2025 are electric cars, rising to 80 per cent in 2030. Manufacturers face fines of £15,000 for every carbon-generating car above the limit.
The industry has been lobbying intensively for relief from the strictures. Makoto Uchida, Nissan’s chief executive, lobbied Sir Keir Starmer last year at the government’s international investment summit….
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“Starmer Set to Relax Ban on Hybrids in Electric Car Climbdown”
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/03/14/starmer-set-to-relax-ban-on-hybrids-in-electric-car-climbdown/
Keir Starmer is set to relax a planned 2030 ban on hybrid cars amid warnings that electric vehicle sales requirements are threatening the viability of the UK car industry….
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“Starmer to rush through watered-down electric car rules in wake of Trump tariffs
Industry faces hammer blow from US president’s 25pc duties on vehicle exports”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/04/keir-starmer-to-rush-through-electric-car-rules/
Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to rush through changes that water down electric vehicle (EV) targets as carmakers brace for Donald Trump’s tariffs…
Behind a paywall, but we get the gist. Trump is proving to be very handy for the UK government. Every failure and policy change can be explained away as not being the government’s fault – instead they have been caused by the effects of Trump Policies. Apparently.
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PS Surely now Mr Miliband will resign in disgust at the abandonment of everything he believes in? No? Oh well.
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Bit O/T for this thread, but with regards Ed Miliband gives go-ahead to turbines as tall as Eiffel Tower | Politics | News | Express.co.uk
“Ed Miliband ignores outrage to give go-ahead to wind turbines as tall as Eiffel Tower The Energy Secretary has approved plans for dozens of turbines as tall as the Eiffel Tower to be built, called Rampion 2.”
“Mr Miliband said: “This project puts us within reach of our clean power offshore wind target. It’s time to get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster, roll out clean power, protect our energy security and bring down bills for good.
“The UK has a boundless supply of wind that cannot be turned on and off at the whims of dictators and petrostates.””
So Ed gets a pacifier to suck on.
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Ed might like to bear in mind that neither the sun nor the wind can be turned on at his whim either.
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“Rules on UK car firms relaxed ahead of 2030 petrol vehicles ban”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj3xe7ppmn2o
It’s called kicking the can (a short distance) down the road, and it will only store up trouble in years soon to come:
…Under the current electric vehicle (EV) mandate, manufacturers are at risk of fines of £15,000 per car sold that does not meet the latest emissions standards.
Currently, 28% of new cars sold in the UK this year must be electric, a target that will rise each year until 2030.
But manufacturers will now be given more flexibility to balance the annual targets against each other and avoid fines by selling more EVs in later years of the mandate.…
...Writing in the Times newspaper, external, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the non-compliance fine will be reduced to £12,000, and people who want to purchase EV’s will be supported
“We’re putting £2.3 billion towards tax breaks for people buying electric vehicles and improving charging infrastructure,” he said.
The changes announced by the government include:
Mandates imposed on car firms as they transition to phasing out petrol and diesel vehicle production will be relaxed to help firms avoid fines
Smaller UK firms like Aston Martin and McLaren are to be allowed to keep making petrol cars beyond the 2030 deadline
Some hybrid vehicles will be able to stay on the market until 2035…
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By the way, it’s interesting that a Labour government is forcing expensive EVs on the plebs while allowing an exemption for those who can afford extremely expensive luxury brands (which the BBC demurely refers to in accordance with the terms of government propaganda as cars made by “smaller UK firms”).
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Where have they suddenly found 2 billion quid? The country is teetering on the edge of bond market destruction.
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Worth a read, if you want a laugh:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/apr/07/labour-ev-rules-uk-emissions-trump-tariffs-car-firms-climate
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Thanks Mark I needed a laugh. I particularly liked this:
‘Labour’s changes to electric vehicle (EV) rules in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs will have a negligible impact on emissions, the transport secretary has said.’
Just as Britain’s Net Zero policy would have negligible impact on global emissions.
In commenting on this story in the Speccie, Ross Clark suggested ‘it is rather as if the government had just come up with a tax on airline travel which exempted private jets‘.
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Partial quotes From That Guardian article –
“Keir Starmer has confirmed plans to boost manufacturers, including reinstating the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.”
“Under the measures, luxury supercar companies such as Aston Martin and McLaren will be allowed to keep producing petrol cars beyond 2030 because they manufacture only a small number of vehicles a year.
New hybrids and plug-in hybrid cars will be allowed to be sold until 2035. Petrol and diesel vans will be able to be sold until 2035, as well as all hybrid models.”
Looks like I might be a white van man soon 🙂
As Robin comments + quotes Ross above, I won’t even bother to look at Aston Martin and McLaren prices. “the government had just come up with a tax on airline travel which exempted private jets‘” sums things up nicely.
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What has this to do with Cliscep? I’m putting this here because it typifies the stupidity of our current government ministers who seem to think you can fine businesses for not doing what they want in a free market economy. This government is increasingly flailing, as it dawns on it that it’s incredibly stupid and unrealistic manifesto pledges are simply unachievable:
“Developers face fines as Rayner steps up plans to speed up UK housebuilding
Councils will get powers to impose ‘delayed home penalty’ under latest government proposals”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/24/housebuilding-uk-angela-rayner-developer-fines
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“China’s electric cars are becoming slicker and cheaper – but is there a deeper cost?”
Well yes.
BBC link.
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“The madness of Canada’s electric-car mandates”
Meghan Murphy on Canada’s version of the ZEV mandate in Spiked.
I somehow don’t think an EV would be appropriate for a Canadian winter.
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“Drivers offered up to £3,750 discount to buy electric cars”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5kpkypxp6o
The cost of some new electric cars will soon be reduced by up to £3,750 under grants being introduced by the government to encourage drivers to move away from petrol and diesel vehicles.
The discounts will apply to eligible vehicles costing up to £37,000, with the most environmentally friendly vehicles seeing the biggest reductions, the Department for Transport (DfT) said.
Carmakers can apply for funding from Wednesday, with the RAC saying discounted cars should start appearing at dealerships “within weeks”….
…Under the scheme, discounts will range between £1,500 and £3,750 and buyers will be able to claim a discount at the dealership.
The grants to lower the cost of EVs will be funded through a £650m scheme, and will be available for three years....
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Now John Redwood and Priti Patel shamelessly blaming Labour for the demise of the British car industry on X:
https://x.com/Janine511484078/status/1948266048261677067
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Refer them to the timeline above! It was all Tory up until last summer – but it has to be admitted, that Labour are doing their best to kill the patient.
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On that demise, the BBC headline says: “UK vehicle making hits lowest level since 1953.” Labour are reinstating grants for EVs, with small twists – there is supposed to be an exclusion for EVs made by coal power etc, and only “cheap” EVs are included (under £37K, which is hardly cheap for a new car). With these conditions they avoid the charge that they are subsidising Chinese manufacturing, and that they are subsidising the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
Most cars are leased, and I do not know if the leasing companies will be able to claim the grants.
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Jit: It does seem to be a strange concoction. It is aimed at private buyers but they account for only 10 – 20% of EV “sales” and, mostly, use leasing/PCP/finance anyway. The under k£37 stricture would appear to open the door to cheap EVs from China but that is countered by the exclusion of coal-powered manufacture.
In today’s news the first 6 months of this year saw the lowest UK output of cars since 1953….. (Although Jaguar’s suspension of production is probably one of the causes).
Meanwhile, a shipping line is refusing to transport EVs and plug-in hybrids because of the fire risk. It will be interesting to see if others follow suit. https://gcaptain.com/matson-suspends-electric-vehicle-shipments-over-battery-fire-concerns/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-8cfa53c174-170410014&mc_cid=8cfa53c174&mc_eid=9275323244
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“US cars and energy to flood Europe as Trump strikes trade deal”
Telegraph link.
How is the importation of American cars going to be compatible with the EU’s own vehicle mandates?
(Mr. Trump also used his appearance at the 19th hole with Queen Ursula to tell the assembled press that wind farms are a “con job”, the most expensive power source to choose, whose components come from his favourite country, China. I hope someone asks Mr. Starmer whether he agrees with Trump on this point.]
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Jit,
Excruciating. Did you notice Queen Ursula’s body language as she sat there listening to Trump go off about ‘windmills’? LOL. Glorious. None of that smug, grinning airiness which she affects when criticised by EU politicians in the European Parliament.
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“Starmer urged to rethink ‘impossible’ electric car targets”
Telegraph link.
It’s a pity that so many firms were gung-ho for this madness before it became concrete. It was obviously destructive back then.
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“UK carmakers claimed leaving EV sales rules unchanged would cost jobs and investment
BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Toyota lobbied against zero emission vehicle mandate, documents show”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/24/uk-carmakers-ev-sales-rules-zev-mandate
Carmakers claimed that leaving electric car sales rules unchanged would threaten British jobs and cost them hundreds of millions of pounds, according to documents that show the private lobbying for a slower transition away from fossil fuels.
BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Toyota claimed that rules forcing them to sell more electric cars each year would harm investment in the UK, according to responses to proposed changes submitted to the government. The responses were obtained by Fast Charge, a newsletter covering electric cars, and shared with the Guardian.
JLR, the Land Rover maker, said leaving the rules unchanged would “materially damage UK producers’ ability to invest in vehicle lines”….
...Japan’s Toyota, which runs factories in Derbyshire and north Wales, said “penalties could amount to hundreds of millions of pounds for individual manufacturers, a level that could place employment and investment across the industry at risk.” The world’s biggest carmaker by volume has focused on hybrid cars, combining a smaller battery and a petrol engine, and has lobbied successfully for hybrid sales to be allowed until 2035 in the UK.
Its Japanese rival Nissan, whose sole European factory is in Sunderland, said carmakers needed more flexibilities or else face “critical levels” of costs that would divert money “away from battery EV research and development in the UK”.
JLR, which has the most British factories, complained that a rule that allowed carmakers to buy “credits” from rivals whose electric car sales were above target meant that British companies were subsidising rivals particularly in China, which dominates electric car production….
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Mark – from your link –
“However, campaigners counter that the rules worked by forcing carmakers to go electric.
Ben Nelmes, the chief executive of New Automotive, a group advocating the switch to electric vehicles, said: “The car industry’s own consultation responses confirm that the ZEV mandate’s 2024 targets were met, proving the policy is a powerful driver of change. “The focus should now shift to accelerating the transition, as this data shows the UK automotive industry is capable of delivering cheaper, cleaner transport.”
“Tom Riley, the author of the Fast Charge newsletter, said: “Carmakers love to wave the union jack when it suits them, but threatening UK jobs and investment to weaken climate policy is a cynical tactic.”
You have to wonder if some people are incapable of understanding the impacts on industry/jobs/etc these policy’s have.
It comes across that Ben & Tom think it’s a “tactic” by most UK carmakers to point out the bleeding obvious.
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dfhunter, yes – that’s the whole tone of the article. It is the Guardian, after all.
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From a few days ago at the Telegraph:
“Western carmakers ‘have ceded affordable EV market to China’”
It includes the news that:
I don’t see it doing well. But I could be wrong.
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Jit – thanks for the link. Partial quote –
“The Department for Transport said it was acting to encourage uptake of small EVs.
A spokesman said: “We’re investing over £4bn to support both industry and consumers in making the switch to electric, giving drivers the confidence to choose the models that work best for them.
“This includes providing discounts worth up to £3,750 off the cost of a new electric car and rolling out more public chargepoints with 83,000 now available and over 100,000 more on the way.”
I thought the “discounts” had been stopped? If not, how do you claim one?
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dfhunter, you thought wrong! Because the uptake isn’t as fast as they would like (surprise, surprise) the government extended the scheme, although as I understand it not every EV qualifies, so there’s been a bit of a fuss about it. BY the way, this waste of £4Bn has to be described, not as a cost, but as an investment.
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17 models now qualify, unless there has been an update since.
“Electric car prices slashed as grant scheme expands to 13 more models”
So says the government press release. There are 5 Renaults, 2 Nissans, and 6 Vauxhalls, to add to the 4 Citroens announced earlier. They all get a £1500 discount rather than the full discount, as they don’t tick enough boxes on the list of criteria.
One of the Vauxhalls is the electric Frontera. It would be surprising if this was a useable working vehicle and not something to pose in.
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Jit – thanks for the link. Long read, so a short quote from the header –
“£650 million scheme is backing industry and jobs, while making it cheaper to own an EV and putting money back in working people’s pockets as part of the government’s Plan for Change”
You have to wonder what working people they know?
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dfhunter,
They also overlook the fact that it’s the taxes of working people (often poor working people who can’t afford an EV, even with the benefit of government subsidies) which are making it cheaper for wealthy people to buy an EV. This Labour government seems to specialise in robbing the poor to help the rich.
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“Electric cars eligible for £3,750 discount announced”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvywyev1do
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So a grand total of two cars get the full whack, both Fords. The AI tells me the Puma Gen-e is made in Romania.
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“Ed Miliband accused of subsidising ‘wasteful and dangerous’ electric SUVs
MPs criticise ‘inconsistent’ climate policy that includes grants of up to £3,750 for ‘supersized status symbols’”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/09/electric-suvs-subsidies-ed-miliband-climate-policy
…The Labour MP Clive Lewis said: “It’s absurd that public money is being used to subsidise SUV-sized electric cars. They may be cleaner than petrol, but they’re still oversized, wasteful and dangerous. Heavier SUVs mean more potholes, more tyre pollution, and more energy consumption, hardly a green transition. Cities like Paris are moving to penalise SUVs with higher parking charges. Here in Britain, we’re doing the opposite: handing them subsidies.”…
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OK, so this is about the EU mandate, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar happen in the UK. These mandates represent a Trojan horse for China, IMO:
“Nissan pools carbon emissions with electric vehicle maker BYD to avoid EU penalties
Japanese carmaker’s deal with Chinese rival part of EU-sanctioned offsetting scheme to help head off £13bn in fines”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/27/nissan-carbon-emissions-byd-electric-vehicle-maker-avoid-eu-penalties
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“Pay-per-mile tax could ‘hinder’ EV switch”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj0deyyx8jo
Special pleading, admittedly, but probably something in it:
Charging electric vehicle owners tax per mile could “cause friction” in the drive to phase out diesel and petrol cars, according to the boss of an electric car leasing firm.
It was confirmed in Wednesday’s Budget that electric car drivers will pay a road charge of 3p per mile from April 2028, while plug-in hybrid drivers will pay 1.5p per mile, with the rates going up each year with inflation.
The government plans to phase out sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 in an effort to reduce vehicles’ effect on climate change.
Charnjit Saranna, who founded electric car leasing firm EZOO, based in Coventry, said she feared the Chancellor’s new tax could make EVs seem less appealing…..
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Perhaps he would like it if we just doubled the duty on fuel.
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Reality bites. I would say the situation is the same in the UK, save for the fact that we have a disturbingly dogmatic government where all things net zero are concerned.
“Germany to urge EU to soften 2035 ban on sale of new petrol and diesel cars
Friedrich Merz to ask for series of exemptions in attempt to protect crisis-hit automotive industry”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/28/2035-ban-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-germany-eu
...The EU’s planned ban has faced complaints from some automakers that it was unworkable given European drivers’ tepid take-up of electric vehicles.
The EU in September said it would fast track a review of its plans to give carmakers more certainty.
Merz has repeatedly spoken out against the ban, but he needed to discuss the matter with his centre-left Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners before communicating a joint position to the EU.
Speaking alongside Merz, the SPD vice-chancellor and finance minister, Lars Klingbeil, said his party agreed with Merz’s centre-right CDU that there had to be changes to the ban. “The future viability of the German automotive industry, securing jobs, that is the key argument for us,” he said. “We agree that the future of the industry is electric … but we need to be open to more technologies, we need flexibility.”
The German car sector is in crisis, faced with the costs of increasing investment in EVs and fierce Chinese competition that is biting into sales....
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“‘The Chinese will not pause’: Volvo and Polestar bosses urge EU to stick to 2035 petrol car ban
Exclusive: Swedish carmakers push to retain target as Germany lobbies to help its own industry by softening cutoff date”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/02/china-volvo-polestar-eu-2035-petrol-car-sweden-germany
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“Swedish carmakers…..” misdirection by the Graun? Surely not!!
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MikeH,
Quite! Volvo is owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group. Geely and Volvo are far and away the majority owners of Polestar. So, they would say that, wouldn’t they? Sometimes the Guardian is still capable of surprising me by the ever-lower quality of its reporting.
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Behind a paywall, but the headline says it all:
“EU to ‘push back petrol car sales ban to 2040’
Car bosses say that EU will delay the outlawing of new sales by five years, meaning the ban on the Continent would come a decade after the UK”
https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/eu-petrol-sales-car-ban-2050-jspqv8pkz
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Well, they have a choice of crack, or destroy their industrial base. Note to Mr Miliband: we have the same choice.
2030 is not sustainable. 2040 is not sustainable. No ban is sustainable.
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“EU delays petrol car ban to 2040 – will the UK follow suit?”
https://www.carwow.co.uk/news/9999/eu-to-delay-petrol-car-ban-to-2040#gref
The European Union is poised to push back its ban on new petrol and diesel cars by five years. With manufacturers already struggling to meet ambitious EV targets, will the UK reconsider its own deadline too?
The EU is reportedly set to delay its ban on new petrol and diesel cars until 2040, five years later than planned. The move, expected to be confirmed in Brussels, has already been quietly communicated to carmakers, according to senior industry figures quoted by The Sunday Times.
If confirmed, this would be a major shift for Europe and could raise questions about whether the UK might rethink its own 2030 petrol and diesel ban….
Fat chance.
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Political posturing hits Industrial reality in the EU.
Political posturing hits Industrial growth in the UK.
Was going to say “sick man of Europe”, but thinking of Ed, maybe “thick man of Europe” is more appropriate.
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“Conservatives would end 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars
Party would also abolish zero-emission vehicle mandate, cutting legal requirement on carmakers to sell EVs”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/14/conservatives-would-end-2030-ban-on-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars
The Conservatives have announced proposals to end the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars and cut the legal requirement on car manufacturers to sell electric vehicles.
A Conservative government would abolish the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, ending the legal requirement for manufacturers to sell a fixed rising percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year – 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035. It would also completely end the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars.
A future Conservative government would also scrap all of the non-research and development subsidies associated with the ZEV mandate to “relieve manufacturers of more costly regulatory obligations”, which the party estimates would save £3.8bn over the next decade. Ministers would retain infrastructure funding to continue developing the electric vehicle market….
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“Germany news: Automakers see worst profits since 2009”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-automakers-see-worst-profits-since-2009/live-75158691
…Together, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) at Germany’s biggest automakers, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, plummeted by nearly 76% in the quarter between July and September.
The statistics indicate that although sales and revenue remained stable, production and running the business has become much more expensive, and carmakers are earning less from sales.
The earnings between July and September amounted to €1.7 billion ($2 billion), the lowest since quarter 3 in 2009, the study showed...
…EY automotive expert Constantin Gall explained: “The global automotive industry is in a deep crisis. However, it is currently the German car companies that are suffering particularly badly.” …
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The ICE ban needs to be overturned entirely, I think, and all the ADAS rubbish rolled back to “optional extras.”
In other news, WordPress is now letting me like comments again.
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“Ford to scale back electric vehicle plans, taking $19.5bn hit”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0l9j65w30eo
Ford is backing away from plans to manufacture large electric vehicles, the US carmaker said on Monday, citing lacklustre demand and recent regulatory changes under US President Donald Trump.
The company will instead invest in producing profitable hybrid and gas-powered vehicles and smaller, more affordable EV models.
Ford said it expects its profits to take a $19.5bn (£14.6bn) hit as a result of the strategic shift, which comes as the Trump administration eases fuel economy rules.
The business case for leaning heavily into EV production, specifically large-sized EV models, has “eroded”, Ford said in a statement, “due to lower-than-expected demand, high costs and regulatory changes”.
“This is a customer-driven shift to create a stronger, more resilient and more profitable Ford,” Jim Farley, Ford’s chief executive, said in a statement....
OK, so it’s the US and changes made by Trump, but it’s reasonably compelling evidence that if consumers aren’t compelled by a combination of carrot and stick towards EVs, then the majority of them will stick with ICE vehicles.
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People don’t want them, but they can be push-pulled into them with penalties and incentives. The topic of the Conservatives’ U-turn on this was being debated on the Daily Politics at lunchtime yesterday, and the Labour MP was blissfully ignorant of the facts. She maintained that the future is EVs – to which the obvious rejoinder should have been, “Then let people choose EVs; do not ban ICE. Do not tilt the playing field – put a fair tax on each, and let the market decide.”
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Let the market decide…..while new car sales are heavily distorted by fleet purchasing, tax breaks, incentives, etc, none of that applies to the secondhand market. EVs typically suffer massive depreciation such that used ones can be markedly cheaper than their ICE equivalents so they have become bargains, especially with their very low running costs.
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Here’s the latest from the EU, as reported by the BBC:
“EU waters down plans to end new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk78y7k8ezo
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I saw that article, and have been looking into some stats on UK car manufacturing. Maybe a new post, if it’s worth presenting. Not sure when though!
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Canute springs to mind for some reason 🙂
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