A little over three years ago I posted a brief follow up to Oil is Dead, Long Live Oil. It had the title “The Answer My Friend Ain’t Blowing in the Wind”. In view of the recent (and ongoing) dunkelflaute, it struck me as an opportune time to update it with a “Part 2”.
Yesterday the BBC website asked “Why has the UK weather been so gloomy lately?” Clicking on the link produces a new headline with the explanation: “Dreary weather in the UK blamed on anticyclonic gloom”. It goes on to tell us:
Is the weather getting you down? You are not alone. Mist, fog, low cloud and a distinct lack of sunshine seems to be the norm so far this month.
It is mild for the time of year but it has typically been dull, grey and misty…
…High pressure, or an anticyclone, is currently influencing our weather.
Such areas of high pressure block rain-bearing fronts and often mean extended dry periods. In the summer this often leads to warm, dry and sunny days with light winds. In autumn and winter, while sunny, clearer days are possible, high pressure can also result in “anticyclonic gloom”.
This is when high pressure traps an area of moisture close to the surface of the Earth. The moisture forms low cloud, mist and fog, which then cannot lift and clear as the winds are so light and the sunshine at this time of year is so weak.
As the high persists, the low cloud continues to feed itself by re-thickening overnight as temperatures drop and moisture condenses.
…Some parts of the country recorded no sunshine at all during the first week of November. ….change is still a long way off….
The Guardian (it and the BBC always seem to be in lockstep) also produced an article (“‘Anticyclonic gloom’ blamed as English village sees no sunshine since October – UK has had average of just three hours of sun over past week, but skies should start to clear from Sunday”) on the subject, studiously (just like the BBC) avoiding the term dunkelflaute (and its implications for energy policy) and also choosing the term “anticyclonic gloom” instead.
I imagine that tells Cliscep readers nothing new. What those articles don’t mention to BBC and Guardian readers is the implication that this has for UK energy policy, especially in the week that NESO has produced a report which Mr Miliband claims vindicates his plan for a decarbonised grid by 2030, but which many thinking people recognise is actually a damning indictment of this policy’s folly. Nowhere do the BBC or Guardian reports advise readers that sunless windless days mean that renewable energy sources (wind and sun) produce only a tiny proportion of their nameplate capacity.
For much of this week gas has been providing more than 60% of the UK’s electricity needs, and because the dunkelflaute has extended to much of western Europe as well as to the UK, input from the interconnectors has been variable and often minimal. As I began writing, (at 7.20pm on Friday 8th November) I see from the excellent iamkate website that gas was then producing 53.8% of our electricity needs in the UK, solar was obviously producing nothing, but wind had finally stepped up to supply 11.2%, and interconnectors were doing better than they have for much of the week, supplying a net 11.7% (the gross figure was higher, but we were also supplying Ireland with some electricity). It’s gratifying to see that the interconnectors are finally helping, but the downside is that we are probably paying a hefty price for this help.
At that specific point, the price was £126.66 per MWh. This compares with an average price for the past week of £95.73 per MWh, which in turn is much higher than the average price over the last year of £68.72 per MWh.
While the EurAsia Daily website’s English may not be perfect to those who have English as a first language, it’s good enough to enable readers to understand that the problem isn’t confined to the UK:
There was no wind in Europe and electricity prices soared. The shutdown of wind farms had to be compensated by gas generation. In Germany, prices during peak hours increased by 8 times. Experts believe that this is a wake-up call for the region.
If on Sunday the maximum price for wholesale electricity in Germany during peak hours was no more than 128 euros per MWh, then on Wednesday, November 6, it already reached 805-820 euros per MWh. That’s how much wholesale electricity cost from 18.00 to 20.00, according to the NordPool exchange.
The maximum prices have become record since the peak of the energy crisis in 2022. And the reason was the windlessness. This period is called Dunkelflaute, when static high-pressure systems cause weaker than usual winds. According to the Institute of Solar Energy Systems. According to Fraunhofer, the share of wind generation in Germany has fallen from an annual average of 32% to almost zero. Wind turbines operate at only 7% of their capacity.
The problem, of course, is that if an anticyclone settles over western Europe and the UK, then the oft-repeated claim that it’s always windy somewhere is proved to be false. At this time of year, and through the winter, when demand for electricity – in the UK and northern Europe at least – is greatest, then such limited sun as does appear may well be hidden behind clouds. If the whole of western Europe is watching its solar and wind farms producing next to nothing, then the interconnectors won’t help (save to the extent that perhaps the French might sell us some very expensive nuclear-generated electricity and the Norwegians might sell us some very expensive electricity generated by hydro power). None of this looks like energy security, nor does it look like the cheap energy that Mr Miliband promised the electorate.
Winter hasn’t got going yet. If there are more dunkelflautes, it could be a very expensive winter indeed. And there may well be more dunkelflautes:
An article published two days ago on the Recharge website claims:
Unexpected wind and solar droughts in countries that are increasingly dependent on renewables pose a threat to system reliability, said Chinese, Canadian and US academics in a paper published in Nature.
Researchers have previously highlighted the danger of almost weeklong periods of cloudy and calm conditions that could have a huge impact on a grid reliant on renewables…
…The researchers stressed the difference between variability, which can be managed with short-duration battery storage; and resource droughts, which require backup generation and long-duration energy storage to prevent blackouts.
Research has noted an increased frequency and severity of extreme climate and weather episodes, they said, some of which could lead to “long spells of low wind and solar energy generation.”
Will those in charge of things take any notice or will they plough on regardless with their ideologically-driven and logic-free policies? Sadly, my money is on the latter, but they can’t say they haven’t been warned – by Cliscep, by the weather, and by researchers.
Postscript
To give solar the benefit of the doubt, here’s an update on electricity generation in the UK at 2.45pm on Saturday 9th November (when it continues to be cold, grey and still, at least where I live). Gas is still doing the heavy lifting (58.1%); wind remains lamentable (5.6%) and we might as well not bother with solar (2.1%). The interconnectors are supplying 12.1% but the price is currently £96.76 per MWh.
Climate Scepticism 
Currently wind 5.9% and gas 58.6%. Does Mad Ed know?
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Robin,
If he doesn’t know, it’s a scandalous dereliction of duty. Presumably he does know, but doesn’t care. The question is, why doesn’t he care? Does he really think UK net zero (which won’t make the slightest difference to the climate) is so important that it’s worth destroying the UK energy system? If he does, then I fear that your use of the epithet “mad” may not be too wide of the mark. What’s equally worrying is that his cabinet colleagues seem to be fully supportive of his agenda.
Also worrying and annoying in equal measure is the profound dishonesty of the BBC and the Guardian in shouting from the rooftops on rare sunny windy summer days of low demand that renewables are performing well, yet saying not a word when renewables are completely useless, even while reporting on a dunkelflaute (though shunning use of the word).
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Mark (and I apologise to everyone else for this unconventional use of Cliscep): I’ve tried to contact you three times by email recently. All have failed to be delivered.
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Robin,
I have just emailed you. If it fails, we might try using my Gmail address?
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Back on track. 6.35pm, price = £119.98 per MWh. Gas is supplying 54.7%; solar nothing (of course – it’s dark); wind 7.6%; interconnectors 13.6%.
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Mark, this is a tragedy of almost Shakespearean proportions. We have essentially two generation systems: one based essentially on reliable fossil fuels of high EROEI, the other based on intermittent “renewables” of low EROEI which pretends to be green and sustainable. However, we have to pay for them both! And to cap it all, we run the intermittent pseudo-green system in preference to the reliable and (dare I say) cheaper one so that our political masters can pretend that the UK is showing leadership by being the Saudi Arabia of wind/hot air. This is the tragedy of the UK’s Wendy house politics, and (to a large extent) Western politics. Fortunately, the USA seems very recently to have come to its senses before the rest of us. Regards, John C.
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I really do think it’s time the Met Office started naming Dunkelflautes. What should we call the first named Dunkelflaute of this autumn/winter? Donald perhaps?
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Must confess to feeling a little schadenfreude
regarding Green politicking involving unreliable
energy decisions that pay no heed to dunkelflautes
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Another excellent post Mark. 👍
“The problem, of course, is that if an anticyclone settles over western Europe and the UK, then the oft-repeated claim that it’s always windy somewhere is proved to be false.”
Rather, the oft-repeated claim that it’s always windy somewhere is technically true, but wind blowing, and wind blowing sufficiently to meet (say) 20% of everyone’s needs, are two very different criteria. 😀
This Grafana site can be quite useful, especially because it shows that lulls generally affect much of Europe simultaneously. This means that when we’re short of wind-generated power, then it’s highly likely those at the other end of our interconnectors are too. Note that only via trial & error did I discover that the GB/UK data doesn’t identify onshore & offshore wind separately. Consequently ‘GB’ doesn’t appear in the country list shown on right-hand side *unless* “Wind” is selected. 🤔
E.g. Select:
region: Europe
area_type: Country
area: All
production_type: WIND + Wind Onshore + Offshore (NB It seems that if only “Wind Onshore + Offshore” are selected, then ‘GB’ generation isn’t shown!)
group_by: Area
demand: Yes
min_interval: (e.g.) 1-hr
https://intermittent.energy/d/QCEg6rl7z/generation-advanced?orgId=1&var-region=europe&var-area_type=country&var-area=All&var-production_type=19&var-production_type=20&var-production_type=25&var-group_by=area&var-demand=1&var-min_interval=1h&var-gapfill_function=interpolate
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Ahhh.
I should have added that timescales are also selectable from the Drop-Down list at Top Right.
The link above shows “Last 30 Days”
There are many, many variables to play with.
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Thanks Joe P – useful information.
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Interesting article from Timera about the challenges of providing gas-fired power into a future of increasing renewables output:
https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-europe-remains-dependent-on-gas-plants/
Key para: “The key takeaway is that a robust capacity payment mechanism is critical to support a viable gas plant investment case. This is the price policy makers have to pay to keep the lights on until alternatives can scale to replace gas.”
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As of 7.15pm this evening, 11th November, wind is doing rather better, providing 25.2% of our electricity (solar, of course, is providing nothing) and gas is down to 44% (though that’s still a huge proportion – how do they really propose to bridge that gap in their “decarbonised” grid?). Interconnectors are providing a net 11.2%, and the price per MWh currently is a hefty £119.48. I suspect the imports from the continent are costing us an arm and a leg. I repeat – this is not what energy security looks like, nor is there any sign of those promised cheap bills.
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“Wind Power Falls to Almost Zero as Miliband Prepares to Cut Gas Further”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/11/wind-power-falls-to-almost-zero-as-miliband-prepares-to-cut-gas-further/
A paywalled Telegraph can be accessed partially via this Daily Sceptic link.
...Sir Keir’s speech, expected on Tuesday, coincides with a record ‘dunkelflaute‘ spell of low winds and sunshine that have already slashed output from renewables.
Wind speeds are expected to fall again this week, making gas more essential than ever to keep the lights on.
“Many of our weather stations have recorded zero sunshine so far this month,” said a Met Office forecaster. It’s very unusual.”
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Ecuador relies heavily on hydro power, and is suffering blackouts because of a drought. Miliband wants the UK to rely heavily on wind and solar. Is this what the UK will look like then during a dunkelflaute?
“‘I’m switched off’: frustration and fatigue as power cuts keep Ecuador in the dark
Facing a severe drought and reliant on hydropower, the country is enduring relentless blackouts….”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/nov/11/ecuador-energy-generation-power-sources-cuts-blackouts-drought-reliance-hydropower-adapt-diversify-protests
It’s 6.30pm in Quito, and Anamary Mazorra Vázquez’s flat has fallen into darkness after weeks of government-mandated power cuts to manage Ecuador’s electricity crisis. She puts clothes away by the light of her phone while her husband, Roberto Vaca, seated on the bed by the window, uses the streetlights to help feed their two-year-old son, who has special needs.
With a newborn and two toddlers to care for, Vázquez’s life has been turned upside down by the blackouts, she says. These past weeks have been particularly challenging, with power cuts from 4am to 11am, then again from 3pm to 10pm, leaving her with only four hours of electricity during the day.
She and her husband have resorted to doing laundry late at night, switching to manual breast pumps, and relying less on refrigerated or frozen foods. They get by in the evenings with a rechargeable light in the kitchen, which lasts long enough for them to cook and eat dinner, while their four-year-old daughter plays in the dark living room.
“This week, the schedule was so harsh,” says Mazorra Vázquez in her kitchen. “I’m not just exhausted, but switched off.”
This sense of fatigue and frustration is widespread across Ecuador as the country – which gets about three-quarters of its electricity from hydropower – goes through one of its worst droughts in decades, and people struggle to adjust to the relentless blackouts…
…Since 23 September, Ecuador has been hit by rolling blackouts, which peaked at the beginning of November, with power cuts lasting up to 14 hours a day, mainly during daylight and evening hours, when demand is highest.
As a result, the country’s economy has been severely affected, with small and medium-sized businesses the worst hit. According to the labour ministry, more than 3,500 jobs have been lost due to the blackouts. Industry bodies estimate the power cuts have cost Ecuador’s economy at least $2bn (£1.5bn), with that figure rising daily….
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Another dunkelflaute day (in western Europe – we in parts of the UK have a breeze, at last). At 8.30am, gas is providing 51.8% of the UK’s energy; solar 2.9%; wind 23.2%; and we are sending a lot to Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands (though we are still net importers, thanks as always to France (nuclear) and Norway (hydro). Our electricity price today, in theory, should be quite low, and we should be making money from sending electricity to those three European countries. Yet it’s currently £107.80 per MWh (that last figure is at 8.35 – I think it was a couple of quid higher five minutes ago, but I didn’t jot it down quickly enough).
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That Timera article makes a puzzling claim.
“BESS duration is currently limited to around 4 hours of duration but is set to increase to at least 8 hours of duration as cell costs decline into the 2030s.”
Battery discharge duration is a function of storage capacity and discharge rate. Those with a battery-driven watch know its discharge duration is years.
An omission is any reference to the proportion of a BESS’s power-discharge rate contracted for grid-stabilisation measures, so unavailable for arbitrage.
E.g. South Australia’s world-famous Hornsdale Power Reserve.
Two Graun articles:
“Tesla to build world’s biggest lithium ion battery in South Australia. …. The 129MWh battery …”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/07/tesla-to-build-worlds-biggest-lithium-ion-battery-in-south-australia
South Australia turns on Tesla’s 100MW battery: ‘History in the making’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/01/south-australia-turns-on-teslas-100mw-battery-history-in-the-making#:~:text=6%20years%20old-,South%20Australia%20turns%20on%20Tesla's,%3A%20'History%20in%20the%20making'&text=The%20world's%20largest%20lithium%2Dion,electricity%20is%20produced%20and%20stored.
Apart from craftily using different units (MWh/MW), the inference is that BigSouthAustralianBattery will discharge its 129MWh at 100MW for energy arbitrage.
The Graun, (and nearly every other MSM reports on BESSs that gives just one of the two variables) forgot (or was ignorant of) the need to inform what proportion of discharge power is available for arbitrage.
AEMO informs:
“1.1.1 Energy arbitrage
Under normal conditions, 30 MW of the battery’s discharge capacity is made available to NEOEN for commercial operation in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Of the battery’s total 129 MWh energy storage capacity,
119 MWh may be used for this mode of operation.
1.1.2 Reserve energy capacity
The remaining 70 MW of battery discharge capacity is reserved for power system reliability purposes.”
https://i.postimg.cc/5tj9XQt9/temp-Image-ARp-Mht.avif
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Dull and calm here again this morning. Grid information at 8.35am:
Gas: 59.4%
Solar: 2.4%.
Wind: 14.7%
France and Norway are keeping us afloat, but we’re exporting to Belgium, Denmark Ireland and the Netherlands, so we’re a net exporter just now (0.1%).
The price of our electricity right now? £126.99 per MWh. That’s going well, then.
News you won’t find being reported on the BBC or at the Guardian.
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Perhaps wind has returned to the continent, if not so much here. Gas is still producing 56.2% of the UK’s electricity needs right now, wind all of 11%, solar none (it’s dark, as it is for many hours at this time of year) and we’re receiving a net 11% through the interconnectors (still exporting to Ireland – what would they do without us?). £102.92 per MWh at the moment.
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It was £133.34 per MWh at tea time today. Peak price at the time of peak demand.
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It’s windy now, and here we see the other side of the coin. Gas has suddenly been forced to reduce output. The electricity price is still high (8.55am): £98.34 per MWh. Gas is providing only 11.5% of our electricity now, renewables (almost all wind – precious little solar) are providing 43.9%, and a net 19.6% (we are still exporting to Ireland – what would they do without us?) via the interconnectors. If renewables are cheap, as claimed, and if the interconnectors enable us to sell electricity at high prices and buy it at low prices (as claimed) why is the current price so high? (It compares to a price over the last year of £69.01 per MWh, and £96.39 over the last week).
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It’s all starting to be a bit of a mystery. The dunkelflaute is over, and although (given the time of year) solar is producing only 2% of our electricity, wind is for once doing it’s bit, and providing 39% to 37% from gas. Interconnectors are supplying only a net 5% (as usual, we are exporting to Ireland).
If renewables are so cheap, why then are we currently paying £112.11 per MWh?
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Mark -funny how that question is never asked never mind answered by the MSM.
No doubt some have an investigative team on it, but they can’t give the desired answers.
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Famine to feast: Wind is now delivering nearly 22 GW. That’s close to the all-time record, if memory serves, which raises an interesting point. We have about 30 GW of wind yet the best-ever output is around 22 GW. So it’s fair to say that we will never get more than a little over 70% of the installed nameplate capacity. Contrast that with fossil and nuclear plants…we all know the story. It’s a factor which should be given greater prominence, imho, alonside the well-known problems of intermittency and unpredictability.
It would be interesting to know the performance of individual wind farms: have any of them ever hit 100% of their rated ouput? I very much doubt it. Obviously each turbine is tested during commissioning but, afaik, the whole farm’s output is not subject to any such tests.
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Mike, the average output can be calculated from the accounts, as I did at https://cliscep.com/2021/08/10/in-high-dudgeon/
It says nothing about the max and min, of course.
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Apparently Orsted are looking to sell half of their stake in the Hornsea 3 windfarm which is yet to be built:
https://gcaptain.com/orsted-said-to-start-selling-stake-in-huge-uk-wind-farm/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-07740002f2-170410014&mc_cid=07740002f2&mc_eid=9275323244
They have already sold off parts of 4 operating projects. “The firm is ramping up divestments as part of a turnaround plan launched by Chief Executive Officer Mads Nipper earlier this year.”
No reason is given. Orsted used to be Dong Energy with many interests in oil & gas….going back to the knitting maybe?
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Jit; thanks for the link to your Dudgeon article – I’ve only just picked it up. The capacity factor is surisingly good at 49%, especially as the turbines are pretty small compared to current models (6 MW).
Sometime I’ll do a bit of digging to try and find the “best ever” performance by a windfarm. I rather doubt it will be anywhere near 100%. In comparison, thermal plants often achieve 100% and it’s not unusual to do a bit better when conditions are more favourable than the design parameters.
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“Germany’s weak winds trigger record surge in gas-fired power: Maguire”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-weak-winds-trigger-record-surge-gas-fired-power-maguire-2024-12-04/
Gas-fired electricity production in Germany jumped by a record 79% in November from the month before as utilities scrambled to offset a second straight month of sharply below-normal output from wind farms.
Wind power output has been 25% below year-prior levels in October and November due to slow wind speeds, depriving power firms of a key electricity source just as winter set in. Wind farms supplied 27% of German utility electricity in 2023.
To plug the resulting generation gap, utilities lifted gas-fired electricity production from 5.34 terawatt hours (TWh) in October to 9.55 TWh in November, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
That was the largest ever monthly rise in German gas-fired generation, and was accompanied by a jump in coal-fired production to 20-month highs as utilities also had to offset a drop in solar generation to the lowest level this year….
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First time I’ve seen this – Wind 19Gw and Gas 19Gw with demand 40 Gw.
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JamesS,
And despite wind, for once, doing a fair bit of electricity generation (to the extent that, unusually, we are exporting, rather than importing, via the interconnectors) the price is over £120 per MWh. So much for renewables being cheap.
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Just visited the national grid site, what on earth is the sudden dip in the graphs around 10:00 this morning ? Is it a huge dip in generation or everybody in the UK switched every thing of at the same time ??
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Looks like the data stopped being recorded for an hour or two.
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“Renewable energy generation falls again in NI”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86wq0327d6o
Renewable electricity generation in Northern Ireland has fallen again, according to rolling annual figures.
Data from the Department for the Economy shows 44.5% of metered electricity consumption came from local renewable sources from October 2023 to September 2024.
That’s a fall of 2.9% compared to the same 12-month period 2022-2023, which also showed a decrease. [my emphasis]
And the amount coming from wind generation has also fallen, from 83.4% in 2022/23 to 81.9%….
…Renewable generation can vary markedly from month to month, mainly due to weather.…
You don’t say!
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News bullet point from the Spectator:
“BP has placed its offshore turbine assets into a jointly owned business with a Japanese company as it further retreats from its wind-power ambitions.”
Maybe they should rebrand their logo to “Backing Petroleum”?
It would be very interesting to learn what led to this decision.
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“How Suppliers Deliver “Green” Power When Wind Runs out of Puff
Prices soar and wind power fails to deliver, so how can suppliers claim to provide 100% green electricity?”
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/how-suppliers-deliver-green-power-when-wind-runs-out-of-puff
It has been a torrid week in UK and continental European energy markets. A high-pressure system over the North Sea has meant low wind speeds and wind turbines across Northern Europe have struggled to produce much meaningful output. So how have energy companies managed to honour their commitments to supply 100% green electricity?
Shortages of wind power have led to massive price spikes across Europe, with day-ahead prices reaching over €936/MWh in Germany and Denmark on Thursday.
The UK has not been immune to these continent-wide challenges with day-ahead prices rising to over £400/MWh and one short-term bid being accepted for over £3,000/MWh on Thursday…
…What is both surprising and alarming is that with his new Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, Ed Miliband is doubling down on this madness. Apparently, he is considering holding the largest ever auction of renewables subsidies next year in AR7. His sole objective should be to cut power prices, but if he has to offer record subsidies, then renewables simply cannot be cheaper.…
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My comment on David Turver’s article:
Is that correct?
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Robin, I think the answer to your question is “yes and no”.
If the iamkate website is correct, then over the last year gas has indeed produced an average of 27% of our electricity needs, and it is averages that Miliband is talking about. So to that extent David Turver is comparing apples with pears, and you are right. However, as we have seen, during severe dunkelflautes, gas can be expected to provide huge amounts of electricity for periods that might be no more than a few hours or (in relatively unusual, but not certainly not unprecedented weather conditions) for two or three weeks. In those circumstances, Miliband either has to maintain significant gas back-up to cover the gap, or he has to run the risk of black-outs. Keeping significant gas back-up on regular stand-by is hugely inefficient and massively expensive, thereby undermining his (recently scaled-down) claims of reduced bills over the long-term. Miliband’s 5% reference is an attempt to pretend that we don’t need much gas back-up and that he will successfully “decarbonise” the grid in short order. That isn’t really true.
I shall be interested to see if David Turver responds to your comment/question.
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Mark, you’re right of course. Yes, the gas back up – idle for most of the year – would have to be significant and would be very expensive. Worse still, it seems that Miliband expects all these gas plants to be fitted with as yet unproven carbon capture and storage systems. It’s all quite mad, but at least the 5% reference could be accurate.
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I should, perhaps, have added that it’s vital to remember that Miliband’s plan isn’t just about “decarbonising” the grid. Over the next five years (and beyond), electricity demand is on track to increase, thanks to his insistence on more and more of us using EVs, heat pumps etc and (should the government achieve its objective of building 1.5 million new homes by 2030) there being more homes, many of which will presumably have more dependence on electricity too. So for renewables to supply 95% of increased demand is an even bigger stretch.
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All true again Mark. But I’m sure Miliband foolishly believes that his plans for huge numbers of new wind turbines means it can all be done. And, were he to be right about this, the 5% reference could be accurate.
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Robin; some fag-packet maths suggests that 5% is unrealistic and probably unachievable.
According to IamKate the past year’s average demand was 30 GW. So, in today’s circumstances, Milliband is aiming for an average gas output of 1.5 GW. Eyeballing the generation curves, gas has rarely dipped below 5 GW and the absolute minimum was about 2.5 GW.
I very much doubt that the gas %age will go any lower because of the requirements for spinning reserve, frequency stabilisation, etc.. Indeed, I expect the gas utilisation to rise as the other resources which can provide those services – or some of them – are taken out of service. The 4 AGR nuclear plants are right at the end of their lives and operate under a tight regime of frequent core inspections which could provoke immediate shutdown if degradation worsens.
If/when that happens, we will be left with just Sizewell B and Drax to help support grid stability. So gas will take on more of that role, replacing the AGRs. In addition the requirement for generation capacity which can respond quickly to changes in demand as wind and solar output fluctuates will increase as the output of those sources becomes a greater proportion of output. Only gas can do that, with minor short-term support from batteries and pumped storage.
Lastly there is our old friend Dunkelflaute to consider. Demand is set to increase with the drive for electrification so gas will have to run at high output on those days, especially if Europe is also becalmed. Three weeks, spread over the year, with gas running at, say, 25 GW would be equivalent to an average of 1.5 GW for 52 weeks.
They are not going to get close to 5%. My guess is more like 15%, if they are lucky.
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Gordon Hughes has an article on his Substack today about DESNZ’s announcement on Friday re changes to planning arrangements for large onshore wind farms in England.
There’s a lot of interesting comment in this article. For example, he notes:
Hughes’ conclusion:
Yet another example of Ben Pile’s observation that the news these days is going in one direction: the Net Zero agenda is all but a corpse.
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MikeH: my intention was simply to note that David Turver was comparing apples with pears: the 5% should be compared with the 27% actually achieved over the past 12 months and not with the huge percentages experienced last week.
Of course you’re right: in Mad Ed’s dreamworld 5% is doubtless achievable – in the real world your 15% (‘if they are lucky’) is probably nearer the truth.
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At the moment we have the Met Office forecasting various levels of sea state round the west coast ranging from slight to very rough reaching high near Tiree. A sure indicator of sea state is the cancellation of the Calmac ferries in the rougher areas, but, we have MV Clansman heading to Coll and Tiree into very rough seas ? On the other side in the Firth of Clyde, forecast slight or moderate we have both the Arran ferries tied up in port ?? Who is correct, the vessel Masters or the weather models/forecast ?
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Another dunkelflaute day dawns. Gas is currently producing 62.6% of our electricity, while renewables are producing just 12.8%. I appreciate that the sun is just coming up, but solar is producing a stunning….0.1%.
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It gets worse. Gas is down slightly, at 61.3%, but since it’s after dark, solar is contributing nothing, and wind has fallen to 7.9%.
The interconnectors have taken up the slack, and we are paying a whopping £141.97 per MWh just now.
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It’s no better a day later. Gas is currently producing 62.3% of our electricity, solar nothing (it’s dark), wind just 9.4%, and we’re paying £157.14 per MWh.
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Gas is still providing 63.5% compared to 7% from wind (and nothing from solar, of course – it’s dark outside). We are dependent on the interconnectors for 9%, and we are paying £154.77 per MWh.
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Looking at the MET Coast and Sea Inshore waters page there is virtually no wind in the North Sea, so all the mega turbines are doing nothing ! The only wind blowing is Bristol Channel and the West of Scotland probably only turning 60 to 100 turbines.
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From grid.iamkate.com, the situation at 10.35 am today:
They are using pumped storage mid-morning?
According to Miliband, Net Zero is inevitable, so we should ignore Trump.
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According to Kathryn Porter, windmills were producing only 100MW of power into the grid this morning. Let that sink in: our vastly expensive fleet of industrial wind turbines, scattered randomly and jarringly across our towns, villages, and rural landscapes and seascapes, was at one point producing just enough electricity to power a single 100W traditional incandescent lightbulb in a million households! That, my friends, was Mad Miliband’s tuneless, tone deaf “Unstoppable Transition”.
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If anything , it’s getting worse, not better. Right now, wind is producing 1.4% and solar 1.1%. Gas is generating 60.6% and the interconnectors are supplying 13.1%. Needless to say this is costing us dearly: £191.46 per MWh.
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Now that the sun has set and solar is providing precisely nothing, it’s a good job that wind has stepped up and is no supplying…2.1%. Gas is at 60.2% and interconnectors at 13.3%.
However, it’s the price that stands out just now: £272.58 per MWh.
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As a picture paints a thousand words, here is grid.iamkate’s figure of the previous 24h of generation.
orange = gas
light blue = nuclear
blue = biomass
cyan = hydro
green = wind
yellow = solar (the speedbump)
Edit: forgot hydro
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Yet again…just now:
Gas: 59.1%
Wind: 11.6%
Solar: 0% (obviously – it’s after dark).
Price: £147.18 per MWh.
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What a disastrous winter, establishing that Miliband’s energy policy is utterly wrong-headed. Just now, iamkate tells me that gas is generating 53.3% of our electricity, solar just 0.8% and wind 6.2%. We are relying on the interconnectors for a net 18.5%, and the price of electricity just now is £145.96 per MWh.
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There must be an anticyclone over western Europe. Interconnectors are providing only a net 0.5% of our electricity at the moment. It seems a barking mad system where we import from France and Norway (and, unusually, from Ireland) in order to export it to Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, wind is producing a meagre 15.6% and solar all of 0.4%, while gas is doing the heavy lifting at 61%. We’re currently paying £155.33 per MWh.
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Still it goes on – gas is meeting 54.8% of our electricity needs, solar nothing and wind 18.8%. Price is £139.96 per MWh.
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You have to wonder if our leaders understand what % means.
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Still it goes on:
Solar 2.6%
Wind 15.2%
Gas 45.5%
Interconnectors a net 17.7% ( we are sending 3.8% to Ireland).
Price: £108.28 per MWh.
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Perhaps this is why we almost certainly seem to be sending electricity to Ireland (which seems even more net zero bonkers than we are) through the interconnectors, even when we’re having to ask Europe to send it to us:
“Sun comes out in Dublin after record 11 cloudy days”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78edejwlwno
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“Renewable energy production falls in Northern Ireland”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx0gx5e191o
The amount of renewable electricity generated in Northern Ireland has fallen again, prompting calls for action to help meet legally binding climate change targets.
By law, 80% of Northern Ireland’s electricity must come from renewable sources by 2030.
Renewable generation in Northern Ireland reached a peak of 51% in 2022 but it has fallen each year since….
...Steven Agnew from RenewableNI said while weather-related variations were to be expected, the figures “should be a warning alarm” for policy makers.
“Northern Ireland is going from leaders to laggards,” he said.
“In levels never before seen, dispatch down averaged 30% in 2024, double what could have reasonably been expected.”...
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Mark – just to add to your comment wrt “dispatch down”, from that same article –
“That can be due to weather fluctuations, but also to the process of “dispatch down”, when wind turbines are switched off because the grid is unable to use the amount of renewable energy being produced.“
And from your comment – “In levels never before seen, dispatch down averaged 30% in 2024, double what could have reasonably been expected.”
Funny how Climate Science NZ polices always seem to be reported with emphasis on the worst case scenario, but NI never got the memo it seems.
Last point from the article/your comment –
“By law, 80% of Northern Ireland’s electricity must come from renewable sources by 2030”
What happens if this is unachievable/fantasy – what does “By law” actually mean in this context?
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dfhunter,
In this context “by law” means the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nia/2022/31/contents/enacted
Section 15:
The Department for the Economy must ensure that at least 80% of electricity consumption is from renewable sources by 2030.
Bonkers, isn’t it?
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Mark – as usual thanks for that “Bonkers” link
“Changes over time for: Section 4 – The emissions target for 2030
4. The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2030 is at least 48% lower than the baseline.”
And the baseline from Section 7 – “Meaning of “baseline”
7. (1) The baseline is the aggregate amount of net Northern Ireland emissions of each greenhouse gas mentioned in the following table in the year specified in relation to that gas—Greenhouse gas – Carbon dioxide1990, Methane1990, Nitrous oxide 1990, Hydrofluorocarbons 1995, Perfluorocarbons 1995, Sulphur hexafluoride 1995, Nitrogen trifluoride1995.”
So by 2030 NI Carbon dioxide emissions MUST be at Least 48% below 1990 levels!!!
Won’t bore anyone with more quotes, but my question – what does “By law” actually mean in this context?” is still unclear to me. If you break or do not implement the law, you commit a crime, and get punished, or is that to simple in the NI case?
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IT’s been a bright and reasonably breezy day today, so what’s the explanation for these figures from the grid (via the iamkate website) just now?
Gas: 57.4%
Wind 7.1%
Interconnectors: 14.5% (net).
Price: £130.74 per MWh.
Even when it was still light, solar was producing only 8.1%.
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Still it goes on. According to iamkate just now:
Gas: 55.2%
Wind 8.5%
Solar: 0% (obviously – it’s after dark)
Interconnectors: a net 16.4%
Price: £115.82 per MWh.
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Over recent days we have seen steady breezes and a lot of sunshine, so much so that there have been times when gas has been supplying as little as 5% of our electricity, while solar and wind combined contributed 75% and the price actually turned negative. But that’s during the day. Once the sun goes down, we can forget solar, and the wind has dropped too. Hence, right now, just a short while after those above statistics prevailed, we now find that gas is once more supplying 59.5%, solar 0,2, wind 8% and interconnectors a net 7.9%. The price is back up to £110.45 per MWh.
These wild swings in price and gas being forced to ramp down to almost nothing, then back up to almost 2/3 of our supply, are not efficient, and they do not represent energy security.
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H/T Paul Homewood:
“Gas-fired power generation hits four-year quarterly high in GB”
https://www.powerengineeringint.com/gas-oil-fired/gas-fired-power-generation-hits-four-year-quarterly-high-in-gb/
Low levels of renewable generation and high demand drove gas-fired power generation to its highest level since 2021 for the first quarter of the year.
That was the standout highlight in a new report on the British power generation market by Montel Analytics.
Montel’s study showed that electricity generated by combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) increased to 26.8TWh over the first three months of 2025 – a rise of 13% from Q4 2024 and the highest Q1 level of CCGT generation for four years.
This surge was driven by a fall in renewable generation owing to intervals of high winter demand and periods of ‘dunkelflaute’, in which demand is high while there is little to no wind or solar generation.
Domestic demand for the quarter was 66.3TWh, a 6% increase from Q4 2024 and the highest Q1 demand since 2022. Meanwhile, renewable output fell from 35.8TWh in Q1 2024 to 34.1TWh in the first quarter of this year, mainly due to a decline in wind and biomass output. Wind generation during the quarter totalled only 22.3TWh – the lowest first quarter output since 2020….
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It will probably get worse before it gets better:
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Sub-headline from Energy Voice:
“Wake loss could cost Equinor and Orsted up to £363m from North Sea wind farms. Equinor and Orsted have warned that the effects of wake loss on their projects could cost them up to £363 million in lost rev…”
Looks like the wind has been taken out of their sails….and sales 🙂
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MikeH – well somebody just put pins in the North Sea map & said, that looks good.
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I have returned home from holiday. It occurred to me that today has been dull and calm, so I thought I would check the electricity generation statistics. Right now gas is producing 54.6%, renewables just 15.7%, a net 11.3% is coming through the interconnectors, and the price is £102.07 per MWh. We are now just entering the lightest third of the year. The plan isn’t really working, is it?
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And at 7:30 this morning we have gas at 49.5%, wind 9.5%, sun 3.6%, interconnectors 12.2% and price £103.56/MWh. No, the plan’s not working.
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Almost incredibly , on a beautiful sunny evening, these are the current figures regarding the sources of UK electricity right now:
Gas: 57.1%
Solar: 10.4%
Wind: 9.5%
Interconnectors: 6.3% (net).
Price: £102.36.
The plan definitely isn’t working.
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It gets worse . The figures now are:
Gas: 62.3%
Solar: 3.9%
Wind: 9.4%
Net imports: 5.2%
Price: £115.54 per MWh.
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Well, the push to renewables is looking increasingly deluded:
“UK gas plants in line for large windfall payments to keep lights on this winter
Gas companies can be sent multimillion pound fees to generate electricity when wind and solar power is in short supply”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/18/uk-gas-plants-in-line-for-large-windfall-payments-to-keep-lights-on-this-winter
More UK gas plants will be in line for windfall payments to help keep the lights on this winter after generators received multimillion-pound payouts last winter.
Britain’s energy system operator expects the UK’s winter power supplies to reach their highest level in five years, in part due to a rising number of gas plants willing to generate electricity during the colder months.
Gas plants are typically called on to generate electricity when wind and solar power are in short supply. During still winter periods when freezing temperatures drive demand for energy higher, they can often request large fees to fire up their generators.
In early January this year, two gas power plants in Hertfordshire and Flintshire, north Wales, were paid a total of £17.8m to run their gas turbines between 4pm and 7pm when demand for electricity was forecast to reach its peak.
The payouts, which were up to 100 times higher than normal market prices, ignited concerns within the industry that gas power plants were able to command excessive payments to generate power when renewable energy generation drops.
They were particularly high because several generators extended their planned outages or scheduled new ones when demand was low during the mild Christmas period before a sharp turn in the weather drove demand up again….
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We are less than 20 hours from the summer solstice, in the middle of the day, allegedly in the midst of a terrible heatwave, so how do we find ourselves with these statistics with regard to the sources of UK electricity right now?
Solar and wind combined, just 43%.
Gas: 12.8%
Interconnectors (net): 20.8%.
Price: £102.24/MWh.
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“Low wind pushing up household energy bills, says power giant
German energy giant RWE blames ‘stilling’ for rising electricity prices”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/14/low-wind-pushing-household-energy-bills-power-giant/
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Mark – thanks for the above link. Notice it says this –
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has also forecasted a global trend of slowing winds in the coming decades.
One theory is that global warming is altering atmospheric circulation patterns. As the Arctic warms faster than lower latitudes, so does the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics, which is a key driver of wind.”
Don’t remember reading about “a global trend of slowing winds in the coming decades” before, but may have missed it.
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Yes, the IPCC is supposed to be an authoritative body whose pronouncements we listen to and act upon. It warns of declining wind speeds, and those politicians who refer us to the IPCC to justify net zero, ignore the logical stupidity of making our energy system dependent on a declining energy source.
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Excellent article by Gordon Hughes on the regulation of wind farm noise and the conflicts of interest embedded in the current system:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQcpnMDNkNlBpgVzckDBKQZfdGf
It will be of particular interest to anyone facing a possible wind development near where they live.
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From gCaptain (a maritime news site):
“Centre Manche 2 is Total’s largest project in France for more than three decades, a 1.5 gigawatt operation in the English Channel ……. The facility will produce power at a guaranteed price of €66 per megawatt-hour, the government said in a separate statement. The contract includes clauses that would adjust that level to account for some cost inflation.”
That price is well below the figures being touted for our AR7. Is this another case of projects costing much more in the UK? The report also stated:
“…..French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambition to have 18 gigawatts of wind farms at sea by 2035, up from three gigawatts currently in operation or under construction. Macron even set a target of as much as 45 gigawatts by 2050”.
That prompts the question of what do our neighbours’ energy plans look like? It would be interesting to see how they compare to ours. If they are anything like France’s, there’s going to be humongous over-capacity in wind in a few years time!
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Sub-headline on the FT site:
“Ørsted to cut quarter of workforce after US setbacks
Danish offshore wind developer plans to cull about 2,000 positions by end of 2027″
Shedding a quarter of the workforce is drastic….looks like the company is on the skids.
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MikeH,
Apologies for the delay in releasing your comment from spam, but I am on holiday and not checking in as regularly as usual.
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Thanks Mark. WordPress must have been feeling grumpy! Enjoy your hols.
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Our c.33 GW of wind “capacity” is currently producing all of 0.69 GW!
And these still, cloudy conditions are forecast to last until next weekend….
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Thank you Mike. It’s now 0.59 GW. It’s below 2% of installed capacity:
Source: https://grid.iamkate.com/
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After my trip away I have just returned from Scotland via the usual heart-wrenching alley of wind turbines flanking the M74 in southern Scotland. They were all standing completely idle.
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As things stand, gas is generating 61.4% of our electricity, wind is at 4.8% and of course (because the sun has long set), solar is contributing nothing (although it was over 20% earlier in the day). A net 14.2% is coming through the interconnectors, and the price is £121.11 per MWh.
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