In a comment on A Heated Debate I drew attention to a Guardian article which told us this:

The government is increasing its air source heat pump grants for homeowners in England and Wales by 50% to £7,500 from Monday amid criticism about slow adoption of the low-carbon technology.

The £2,500 in extra support – on top of £5,000 offered – aims to take the cost of installing an air source heat pump below that of the average gas boiler.

Support for installing ground source heat pumps – which are not suitable for most homes in the UK as they require access to a large outdoor space – will increase from £6,000 to £7,500…

…But the government’s stated ambition for 600,000 heat pumps to be installed every year by 2028 has struggled to find public support due to the high upfront costs of installations and a lack of clear information.

The NIC said last week that the current rate of heat pump installation is “not cutting the mustard” and the scheme’s funding needs to increase if more households are to benefit. The scheme’s current budget is underspent, according to PA, as households balk at the cost and complexity of switching.

That was more than three months ago, and so when I saw “Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics: December 2023” on the Government website I thought I would take a look to see if the additional grants have had the effect of increasing uptake towards the Government’s target of 600,000 heat pump installations per annum. The short answer is “no”.

The statistics relate to the government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme (“BUS”) which “aims to incentivise and increase the deployment of low carbon heating technologies by providing an upfront capital grant towards the cost of an installation of an air source heat pump (ASHP), a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and, in limited circumstances, a biomass boiler”. To that end “grants available were £5,000 for an ASHP or biomass boiler, and £6,000 for a GSHP. From 23 October 2023, grant levels for the installation of ASHPs and GSHPs increased to £7,500. Grants for biomass boilers remain at £5,000.” The initial grant pool of £450 million until 2025 has been added to by a further £1.5 billion until 2028. It seems that the powers-that-be have recognised that they were failing to achieve the level of uptake they wanted, and that the absurd costs of heat pumps might have at least something to do with that, so they went and threw a bucket load of (our) money at it.

It’s early days, but it doesn’t seem to have worked with a rightly sceptical public. There was a bit of an uptick in October, though not at the levels that the Government might have hoped for, then interest fell off in November, and again in December. The Government valiantly attempts to spin its failure thus:

New figures show applications to the government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme in December jumped by 49% compared to the same month in 2022.

Well, yes and no. It really is the most disingenuous (I’m tempted to say dishonest) piece of spin. For some reason the number of voucher applications received in December 2022 (924) was the lowest monthly total since the commencement of the scheme in May 2022. Otherwise the number of applications has generally been between 1,200 and 1,500 per month. In October 2023, possibly with the increased subsidy level coming into effect, the number of monthly applications jumped to 3,355, but in November it fell to 2,557, and in December it collapsed to just 1,378, which is very roughly the average level of applications before the increased grant level was announced. It’s too early to say whether there will be increased interest, or whether the British public will remain as indifferent to the grant scheme as they have been to date. However, to spin a second huge huge monthly fall in applications as a “jump” of 49% (by reference to the lowest figure in the database, which, conveniently, was twelve months earlier) strikes me as disgraceful. “Trust me, I’m from the Government”. I don’t think so.

Remember that the Government’s target is 600,000 heat pump installations per annum. Well, in the 20 months of the scheme from May 2022 to December 2023 (inclusive), they received the grand total of 31,378 voucher applications. In other words, fewer than 20,000 per annum on average. I’d say they have some way to go, and if the steep decline in applications from October to December 2023 is anything to go by, the target is going to be missed quite spectacularly.

This is extraordinary given the tsunami of heat pump propaganda with which we are being inundated, and the increased size of the grants being provided at the taxpayers’ expense. It seems the British public aren’t remotely interested, no doubt because they are happy with their gas boilers, can’t afford to change to heat pumps (even with the assistance of a substantial grant), and don’t want the massive level of disruption that installing a heat pump often entails.

A quick look at the costs might be revealing. According to the Government statistics, the median cost of installations in the fourth quarter of 2024 is as follows:

Air source heat pumps: £13,582.

Ground source heat pumps: £25,367.

Biomass boilers: £15,227.

Of those, only the cost of biomass boilers seems to be falling (from a high of £18,000 in the second quarter of 2023 – though the cost was £15,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022).

Air source heat pumps have seen costs rise steadily from a low of £12,861 in the third quarter of 2022.

Ground source heat pumps have also seen a steady rise in costs, from a low of £23,000 in the second quarter of 2023.

Postscript

If, like me, you think the number of voucher applications received after twenty months is risible, the figures relating to redemptions during that period are even worse, working out at fewer than 1,000 per month on average. 19,839 redemption applications have been received, and 19,064 of them have so far been paid.

I think it’s fair to say that it isn’t exactly going to plan.

31 Comments

  1. For many (perhaps the majority of) existing properties, it would be cheaper to demolish and rebuild than convert the central heating system to use an ASHP. If they’re such a great idea, why don’t we see them in new builds, that can be designed around their limitations?

    Like

  5. The push for heat pumps is part of the “electrify everything” mantra, which is really a war against natural gas (methane) since it is an hydrocarbon fuel. The extremists are aiming to eliminate any and all natgas appliances and conveniences.

    Like

  6. “Heat pumps needed at ‘much faster rate’ – watchdog”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68133751

    Clean energy such as heat pumps need to be installed in Scotland’s homes “at a much faster rate”, according to the financial watchdog Audit Scotland.

    Its report said only about 5,000 heat pumps were installed in 2022, a long way short of the current target of about 25,000 a year.

    The target is set to rise rapidly to 200,000 annually later in the decade.

    Audit Scotland said ministers needed to produce a “clear delivery plan” to ensure the targets were met….

    …The report said it would require the majority of households to change their heating systems and described the scale of the challenge as “huge” with several “risks to success”….

    …It recommends that ministers set out a “clear plan of action” to support the large scale change which is necessary.

    The Scottish government has committed £1.8bn in the current parliamentary term to decarbonising home heating but estimates that a total of £33bn will be needed.

    That figure is made up of public, business and individual household funding….

    A huge challenge, barely any progress made to date, several risks to success, massively expensive, and it will make no measurable difference to the climate at all. Yet the report doesn’t question the “logic” of requiring this change against the will of the people. It’s the same south of the border. Bonkers, the lot of them.

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  7. “UK to scrap ‘boiler tax’ after makers raise prices to cover any fines
    Penalties drafted as part of ‘clean-heat plan’ to hasten takeup of eco-friendly heat pumps replaced by quota system”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/04/uk-scraps-boiler-tax-after-makers-raise-prices-to-cover-any-fines

    …A formal decision has not been announced, but according to the report, Coutinho believes ditching the policy may be the only way to get manufacturers to drop their prices again and that the government can still hit its target of 600,000 heat pumps through other schemes and incentives.

    “We remain committed to our ambition of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028,” said a Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson when approached for comment.

    “We want to do this in a way that does not burden consumers, and we’ve increased our heat pump grants by 50% to £7,500 – making it one of the most generous schemes in Europe.

    “This pragmatic approach is working, with a nearly 50% increase in people applying in December 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.”

    There’s that disingenuous use of a dodgy statistic again. As for the claim that the approach is working, one dodgy statistic doesn’t make it true – the statistics overall suggest that the claim is nonsense.

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  8. The BBC has caught up with developments:

    “Fines for missing heat pump targets could be dropped, Downing Street hints”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68207355

    The article is full of the usual howls of anguish from the usual suspects, and ends with:

    …Mr Sunak’s spokesperson said the government was on track to meet its 2028 heat pump installation target, adding the prime minister wants to do this “in a way that doesn’t burden consumers”.

    Patently the Government isn’t on track to meet its 2028 target. Why are they allowed to spout this drivel without challenge?

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  9. “UK scheme to spur take-up of heat pumps delayed after gas lobby pressure

    Mechanism is vital to boost the ‘only viable option’ to decarbonise emissions from heating homes, says green charity”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/government-delays-scheme-to-spur-take-up-of-heat-pumps-after-pressure-from-gas-lobbyists

    Says the Guardian:

    “The government has delayed by a year its scheme for spurring the take-up of heat pumps, under pressure from the gas boiler industry.”

    And it then goes on to provide absolutely no evidence whatsoever that the delay is due to such lobbying. Instead, the whole article is really just lobbying on behalf of heat pump suppliers and net zero zealots:

    “Juliet Phillips, an analyst at the E3G thinktank, welcomed aspects of the strategy but urged the government to move faster. “The government must move ahead with laying the legislation as soon as possible – without this, there will be continued speculation that the mechanism has been quietly killed,” she said.

    David Cowdrey, director of external affairs at the MCS Foundation, a charity that works on low-carbon homes, said: “It is extremely disappointing to see that the government has postponed one of the most important policies for getting the UK off fossil fuel heating. The clean heat market mechanism is crucial to the rollout of heat pumps, which are the only viable option to decarbonising at scale the 17% of UK emissions that are created by heating our homes.”

    He added: “The government needs to immediately set out plans for how it intends to fill the huge gap in heat pump plans that they have just created. We need clear and consistent policy more than anything, and without that the UK’s target of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 is in serious jeopardy.””

    Well, I won’t quibble with that last claim, at least.

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  12. The heat pump target is still being badly missed, and so:

    “UK government hires ‘nudge unit’ to help dispel heat pump myths

    Behaviour experts say misinformation shared in media and by other stakeholders is impeding uptake”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/01/uk-government-dispel-heat-pump-myths-misinformation-media

    But is this misinformation about misinformation? By coincidence, my wife and I met up a few weeks ago with friends who built a new house in Scotland recently. Under the Scottish planning and net zero regimes, they had to instal a heat pump (air source variety, as it happens). They declared themselves happy with its performance, but it certainly isn’t saving them any money, and is very expensive to run in winter (the time of year when a heat pump’s efficiency is at its lowest). It was expensive to install, and the associated pipework takes up a huge amount of space in their garage, and is generally much more complicated than would be the case with a gas boiler.

    Of course, theirs is a new house, built to modern building regs standards and very well insulated. It performs OK in such a property, but is space greedy and isn’t cheap, to run or to install. Perhaps for new properties it makes sense to install heat pumps, but it’s much less clear that this is the case for older properties. Against that background, we find the Guardian (and via them, the government, I suppose) telling us this:

    Experts from a “nudge unit” have been hired to help ministers fight misinformation about heat pumps to try to encourage take-up of the devices.

    The appliances run on electricity instead of gas and are regarded as a way of decarbonising homes at scale. A target of installing 600,000 a year by 2028 is part of a drive to achieve Britain’s commitment to reach net zero by 2050.

    However, misinformation shared in the media and by “other stakeholders” is impeding uptake, according to a £100,000 government contract awarded to the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), which specialises in ideas to “nudge” the public into taking different actions.

    The contract awarded to BIT contains details of a previously unpublished research by the Department for Energy.

    It found that individuals who self-reported that they knew a fair amount or a lot about heat pumps were less likely to want one. However, people who correctly answered a simple knowledge question about heat pumps were more likely to want one.

    BIT is finalising a large survey of householders’ views and coverage in the media that will be used in planning how the government will push back against misinformation.

    “Information about heat pumps is being shared by the media and stakeholders, which may be skewed to negative, incorrect or exaggerated stories of heat pump adoption,” says the contract, which cites examples including claims that the pumps are noisy, cost too much to install and are not reliable and don’t work in older homes….

    All of those claims have at least an element of truth, and are not misinformation. They even concede the big one – cost:

    …Articles about heat pumps in the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph were cited in the document, which states that some of these stories “are generally well-founded, such as believing that heat pumps are expensive”…

    Here are the killer statistics:

    …While installations of heat pumps in the UK have hit a record number last year, they have still only reached about 42,000 since January. Air-source heat pumps cost just over £12,500 to buy and install on average, about four to five times more than gas boiler. The government offers a £7,500 grant for households installing the technology.

    In terms of the claims, experts say the majority of households are expected to be able to use heat pumps, rather than just newer ones. It was also found that, on average, heat pumps were far more efficient than gas boilers, turning one unit of electricity into 2.5-5 units of heat.

    So they are expensive to install, and also expensive to run, given that electricity is around four times as expensive as gas. Also, that claim about efficiency (there’s a massive divergence between 2.5 and 5, so what’s the reality, please?) ignores the fact that they are least efficient in winter, when they are most needed and will therefore cost most. And on a point of order, we all, as taxpayers, pay for that “government” grant, so to date poor taxpayers have by and large been subsidising wealthy virtue-signallers to enable them to signal said virtue. In short, the government is using more of our money to pay people to gaslight us.

    By the way, they’re running scared of Reform:

    …The technology has also come under fire most recently from Reform UK, which is seeking to leverage an anti-net zero agenda, while heat pumps have been openly criticised on GB News by the party’s leader, Nigel Farage.

    The Reform UK deputy leader, Richard Tice MP, has also been particularly hostile towards the technology, claiming that heat pumps were useless in most homes.…

    Kemi Badenoch, take note.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Mark: curiosity question – do you know whether that heat pump was air-to-water or air-to-air? I ask because most of the debate in the UK seems to focus on the former for the cases where existing boilers are being replaced. However, for new build projects, it’s my understanding that the latter is cheaper as there are no radiators, etc.. I believe this is the standard configuration in N. America and Scandinavia: someone with better knowledge could confirm/correct?

    So I wonder if there’s a bit of apples vs pears going on which is distorting the debate. Even so, that would not detract from your points.

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  14. Mike H,

    I’m afraid I don’t know. It was a small part of a conversation. I think they said they had underfloor heating downstairs and radiators upstairs, if that’s ok any help.

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  15. Mark; thanks. That means they put in an air-to-water system where the heat pump takes the place of a boiler – but with bigger rads and pipework. This appears to be the conventional thinking which is not surprising as the majority of installers are probably plumbing companies. So they can be expected to stick with what they know.

    If/when I face this choice I will want to look at all alternatives, such as absorption systems that were flagged up on another thread (sorry, can’t remember who by).

    Like

  17. “‘They’ve heard so much wrong information’: Selling heat pumps across Germany’s political divide

    Green heating has an image problem, especially where climate-sceptic parties hold sway. Now energy groups are promoting them on grounds of cost, status and energy security”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/03/theyve-heard-so-much-wrong-information-selling-heat-pumps-across-germanys-political-divide

    More misinformation about misinformation!

    …While cold Nordic countries with cheap electricity and high carbon taxes embraced heat pumps decades ago, negative media campaigns have turned them into a polarising force in countries such as Germany and the UK. Norway has 635 heat pumps for every 1,000 households, while Germany has 47 and the UK just 15. Sales in the two countries also lagged far behind their neighbours’ last year, industry data shows….

    The clue is right there – heat pumps are popular where electricity is cheap and carbon prices are high. In other words, they receive artificial financial support. If the playing field is level, people by and large don’t want them.

    …Heat pumps are more expensive than gas-burning boilers, but in most countries are cheaper to run, even before counting the costs that society pays for fossil fuel pollution. Germany subsidises 30-70% of the cost of a new heat pump and experts say the device could pay for itself in a number of years – though their calculations ignore the opportunity cost of investing the money or putting it in a savings account. [My emphasis].

    Like

  19. “UK government may extend domestic energy grants to heat batteries

    Scheme in England and Wales covers only heat pumps, uptake of which has been slow”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/10/uk-boiler-upgrade-grants-heat-batteries-pumps

    The UK government is considering expanding the boiler upgrade grant scheme for England and Wales to cover sources of low-carbon heating for domestic homes other than heat pumps, the Guardian understands.

    The government has a target of 600,000 heat pump installations annually by 2028. But data from the Resolution Foundation on Wednesday revealed worryingly low uptake of heat pumps. Last year, installation of gas boilers outnumbered heat pump installations by 15:1, according to the Resolution Foundation report, and only one in eight new homes were equipped with the low-carbon option, despite the government’s clean energy targets.

    According to government data, 62,031 vouchers have been issued to households in England and WAles to install heat pumps under the boiler upgrade grant scheme since it began in April 2022, suggesting the government is way off its target. The scheme provides grants of £7,500 to householders who switch from gas boilers to heat pumps.

    The grants are specific to heat pumps and do not apply to other forms of low-carbon heating. A cross-party group of MPs has called for subsidies to be spread to other low-carbon technologies, including heat batteries.

    [My emphases].

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Yes, that’s it. A fridge-sized lump weighing about 2 tonnes, just sitting there uselessly like, er, a lump. Don’t put it upstairs, is my advice. I’m sure the Guardian journos are booking their installations now.

    There is a reason why condensing boilers are so popular. Cheap, instant hot water on demand.

    Hopefully when this lot have been got rid of – they seem to have an amazing knack for always choosing the wrong option – the next government will get rid of all this crap.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. “The Return of the ‘Boiler Tax’”

    https://dailysceptic.org/2025/05/19/the-return-of-the-boiler-tax/

    This is about an article in the Daily Telegraph, but given that the DT’s articles are usually behind a paywall, the Daily Sceptic version is a useful way of reading part of it, including this:

    ...The Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM) threatens fines of up to £500 for each heat pump manufacturers failed to sell below a government-set target, currently at 6%.

    Analysis of installation figures in the past 12 months shows demand is “flatlining”, threatening the Energy Secretary’s ambition of seeing 600,000 heat pumps fitted every year from 2028.

    Experts said the price of a typical gas boiler would rise by £40 as a result of the penalties.

    Monthly installations of air-source heat pumps have fluctuated between 4,000 and 5,800 in the 12 months to April, according to MCS, the installers’ accreditation body.

    The Energy Department maintains installations have risen by a quarter since last year, but Mike Foster, of the Energy and Utilities Alliance lobby group, said “the trend line, which averages out the 12 months but also suggests in which direction the level of installs is going, is flatlining”.

    He added: “The Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM), which spawned the ‘boiler tax’, is a bad policy. Always was and always will be. It does nothing to stimulate demand for heat pumps, which is what is lacking.

    “Appliance manufacturers will make products that sell, that’s just basic commerce. Fining British businesses because consumers don’t want a product they make is simply nonsense, and nothing changes that.

    “It’s like fining the local butcher because people aren’t eating enough greens.”...

    Liked by 2 people

  22. Mark – as usual I like to read comments under articles you link – sskinner says

    ““No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles, nor to prescribe in any way the character of the questions investigated. Neither may a government determine the aesthetic value of artistic creations, nor limit the forms of literacy or artistic expression. Nor should it pronounce on the validity of economic, historic, religious, or philosophical doctrines. Instead it has a duty to its citizens to maintain the freedom, to let those citizens contribute to the further adventure and the development of the human race.”
    Richard Feynman

    “We live in an unscientific age in which almost all the buffeting of communications and television-words, books, and so on-are unscientific. As a result, there is a considerable amount of intellectual tyranny in the name of science.”
    Richard Feynman

    Liked by 1 person

  24. This surely is a sign of desperation, and not good for the neighbours:

    “Planning change to make installing heat pump easier for millions”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e5plqke3no

    A key planning restriction that heat pumps need to be one metre from a neighbour’s property has been lifted as the government seeks to accelerate the take up of the low-carbon technology.

    The change, which is part of the government’s Warm Homes Plan to lower household bills and cut planet warming emissions, means it could be easier for millions of homes in England to have a heat pump installed….

    …Until Thursday, homeowners needed planning permission if they wanted to put a heat pump within one metre of their neighbour’s property – because of concerns over noise.…

    ...The rule has now been dropped to accelerate the uptake of heat pumps. Previous concerns over noise are less of an issue with newer devices, though units will still be required to be below a certain volume level.

    The planning changes also include a relaxation of the rules for the size and number of heat pumps households can install.…

    But this is, of course, the major problem:

    …Although the heat pump industry welcomed the changes, many point out the main barrier for many customers is that installing heat pumps is expensive, particularly in older houses, where better insulation may also be needed.…

    Liked by 1 person

  26. BBC news today did a piece on this today. Can’t find a link to it, but found 2 almost identical articles from BBC Esme Stallard, with 1 small difference –

    Planning change to make installing heat pump easier for millions – Partial quote –

    “This was the case at social housing estate Sutton Dwellings in Chelsea, London, which underwent a full refurbishment of its fabric alongside a new heating network.

    Planning change makes heat pump installations easier for homes – BBC News – Partial quote –

    “This was the case at social housing estate Sutton Dwellings in Chelsea, London, which underwent a full refurbishment of its fabric alongside a new ground source heat pump network.”

    Maybe not important, but the news piece did make a point about the indoor ground source heat pump making the same noise as a fridge. Wonder why they never thought to then show how quite the outdoor air source pumps are?

    Like

  27. The BBC took a chance and opened the story up to Have Your Say. Comments aren’t going well, to put it mildly. This is the higest-rated:

    So… to clarify, if your neighbour wants to strap a droning fan unit to the brickwork right next to your bedroom window there’s nothing you can do about it? And this is a good thing?

    Liked by 1 person

  28. “Miliband’s heat pump rollout costs taxpayers nearly £700m a year”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/miliband-s-heat-pump-rollout-costs-taxpayers-nearly-700m-a-year/ar-AA1M051K

    Ed Miliband blew almost £700m of taxpayers’ cash on grants for heat pumps during his first year in office, new industry analysis reveals.

    The Energy Secretary has overseen a gargantuan increase in spending on support to install heat pumps, which has more than tripled in the space of just 24 months.

    Last year he spent more on pushing families to take up heat pumps than ministers will save by restricting the winter fuel payment for pensioners.…

    …Industry analysis of Department for Net Zero figures reveals that £692,108,250 was spent on such grants between July last year and this June.…

    …Official figures show there were 46,423 government-supported heat pumps installed in the year up to June, an increase of 30 per cent on the previous 12 months.

    Ministers have said that by switching to a heat pump and using smart tariffs to manage their electricity usage families can save around £100 a year on their bills.

    A spokesman for the Department for Net Zero said: “These are grants for households, not subsidies to heat pump manufacturers…..

    That looks like £14,908 of taxpayer money per heat pump (plus whatever the home owners also paid), so that families installing them can save “around £100 a year”. The economics of the madhouse. Oh, and by the way – still one heck of a long way from the annual target.

    Like

  29. “Heat pump makers are ready for a rush: Will customers come?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmvl3remg2o

    …The government wants to see 600,000 heat pumps going in to UK homes annually by 2028, just three years away.

    While installations have quickened recently, the country remains far behind that target. Total UK heat pump sales were slightly below 100,000 in 2024....

    …Gas has become slightly cheaper again meaning that heat pumps are finding it harder to compete, external against gas boilers in terms of running costs.….

    …Taxing fossil fuels harder is one way to spur demand for domestic appliances that use electricity as an alternative, says Paul Kenny, director general of the European Heat Pump Association, an industry body.…

    Yeah, I guess that might do it, but how that benefits society (as opposed to heat pump manufacturers) isn’t explained.

    Like

  31. It must be true – the Guardian says it is!

    “Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan

    Exclusive: Supporters say grants largely going to middle-class households, but experts warn move will slow transition from gas boilers”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/13/hundreds-of-thousands-to-lose-heat-pump-subsidies-in-reevess-budget-plan

    ...Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is planning to announce a series of measures to bring down energy bills amid concerns the country’s stubbornly high cost of living is driving millions of voters to Reform UK.

    Among those measures, according to sources briefed on the budget preparations, is a plan to take energy efficiency levies off bills and fund them through the government’s existing warm homes plan.

    The move will mean restricting heat-pump subsidies so that only those receiving certain benefits will be allowed to claim them, sharply bringing down costs to the government.

    Supporters of the change say that the subsidies, which can be as high as £7,500, were largely going to middle-class households that could have afforded them anyway. Energy industry experts, however, warn that by taking the support away ministers will slow the transition from gas boilers to more expensive but cleaner heat pumps....

    Liked by 1 person

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