Energinet is the Danish national transmission system operator for electricity and natural gas. It is tasked with ensuring the efficient operation and development of the Danish electricity and gas infrastructure, and therefore may loosely be compared with National Grid ESO and National Gas in the UK. Energinet’s Annual Magazine for 2023 (a very slick and glossy production) is now available online and it makes interesting, albeit rather alarming, reading.

Of course, the object of the magazine is to reassure readers that their energy system is in safe hands, that everything is under control, and that they are marching hand in hand towards the sunlit (and – if they are lucky -windy) uplands of a future gloriously, efficiently, and carbon neutrally powered by renewable energy. At the end of the back page of the publication, it sets out what the ambition is, in language that is very reminiscent of that used by the authorities in the UK (who also seem to believe that mutually contradictory objectives can be achieved together):

We are working towards a green transition of the energy systems, so that citizens and businesses can use renewable energy for everything, with a high level of security of supply and at an affordable price.

The reality, as set out in the magazine, offers a disturbing view of the future awaiting what are (for now) developed countries if the net zero nightmare comes to pass. The irony, of course, is that the magazine is intended to send out a positive message, yet one doesn’t even have to read between the lines (the lines themselves tell us) to be very nervous about what is heading our way. Let’s take a look at what it has to say, utilising the headings adopted within the magazine.

Energy Crisis

If all was going well, there really shouldn’t be an energy crisis, but there is. And we’re told that it’s not over yet. There is also an admission that the energy crisis had taken hold in Europe before (my emphasis) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Low stocks in gas storage facilities, French nuclear reactors off-line, and low water levels (both in reservoirs, and for cooling power stations) combined to create a perfect storm when the problem of major cutbacks in imports of Russian gas was added to the mix. Concerns that power cuts might have been necessary last winter (2022/23) were – in the end – not justified, because the weather Gods saved the day for renewables: it was mild, windy and wet. Also LNG has been imported in large quantities. Also consumers used much less gas and electricity in Denmark. One can’t help wondering if Danes ended up being colder last winter as a result, and whether Danish industry’s output plummeted, given that trade and industry and small businesses used much less gas and also less electricity than in the same period a year earlier. Energinet’s Vice-President might or might not have intended the pun when he said:

We are [now] in a more solid position, but there is still uncertainty: how much water will there be in the Nordic hydroelectric power stations? how windy will it be? and how long and cold will the winter be? We are sailing closer to the wind in our energy systems in Europe. We therefore continue to watch the electricity and gas supply closely.

What if?

Those words (that one might not expect to see in the magazine of an organisation dedicated to “a high level of security of supply”) appear on page 7. We learn that a country that has “taken the ready supply of electricity and gas for granted for many years” is now “more aware of terms like ‘brown out’ and ‘non-protected customers’”.

We are told that the option has always existed to shut down consumption in the event of serious problems. Traditionally, that might have meant something like a pipeline being cut during excavation work or high-voltage pylons being blown down by a hurricane. This has never happened to date. But now the risk of a supply crisis has increased, and the potential lack of supply isn’t going to be because of an excavator or a storm. Tables are helpfully supplied to explain what the nature of the supply crisis might be and what actions would then be taken. In the case of electricity, a week-long problem might result “[i]f very cold and windless weather is forecast for the coming days, and there is a risk of insufficient electricity generation.” In that case “[t]he Danish Energy Agency and Energinet will inform Danes of the higher risk of controlled power outages. Danes will be urged to save energy.” Shorter outages are anticipated, in which case 10 – 20% of customers might be cut off for a time (a maximum of two hours, we are told). After two hours, customers will be re-connected, and other customers will be cut off. The rolling brown out will continue until electricity generation can again meet electricity consumption.

Hydrogen exports can support green transition

You’ve just got to love optimists. Or have you? Personally, when it comes to messing around with reliable energy generation, I find them to be very worrying. Does this sort of thing sound familiar?

It will take a lot of solar cells and wind turbines to meet Denmark’s total electricity consumption using green power. Eventually, this will mean that we have more renewable energy than we can use directly at times. Electricity and hydrogen will therefore become close allies, because the green power can be converted into hydrogen, which can be exported.

Denmark is well underway with the green transition. The goal is a future with 100% green electricity flowing in the grid, and if Denmark exploits its great renewable energy potential to reach this goal, we will end up with a lot of wind turbines and solar cells.

They don’t seem to have much need for hydrogen themselves (or perhaps they recognise the problems associated with its use) and so they are keen on “hydrogen motorways”, which are allegedly “coming soon”:

At European level, Energinet and 30 other energy infrastructure operators from 28 countries are looking at the possibility of building a ‘European Hydrogen Backbone’. The initiative could encompass 53,000 kilometres of hydrogen pipes in Europe by 2040. Over 60 per cent will be based on existing gas pipelines being converted to hydrogen.

They reckon that Germany needs hydrogen, and it’s obvious that they hope to make money from this.

Countries like the Netherlands and Germany are obvious potential export markets. Denmark is a small country with large territorial waters, and the Danish North Sea region is shallow – an ideal place to erect wind turbines. Germany does not have the same opportunities to produce plentiful wind power, but with more than 80 million inhabitants, it has a greater need for hydrogen in industry than we do.

They say that “this is from a source – wind – that does not run out”. Obviously they haven’t heard of wind droughts, such as the one that caused such problems in 2021.

Energy Figures 2022

In Denmark, they say, electricity produced by solar and wind increased from 40% in 2015 to 59.6% in 2022. They claim that “[i]n 2030, 100% of our electricity consumption is expected to be met by solar and wind power.” Maybe they have a better plan than I can see, but basic numbers don’t seem to add up. In seven years they have increased the proportion by less than 20%, but in the following seven years they expect to double that proportion to 40% – and in the face of what will inevitably be rising demand for electricity, as they adopt the same net zero madness that the UK is following. It’s a short section, and they don’t explain how this is to be achieved.

Energy Islands

I touched on this when I wrote Saving the Planet by Trashing it. There I commented:

On 4^th February 2021 the Guardian reported on plans by Denmark to build a “clean energy hub” by building a new artificial island 50 miles offshore in the North Sea. The island is to be the size of 18 football pitches…

…Apparently this sort of thing is “green”. Nowhere does the article discuss the possible environmental problems that might be associated with this plan. The article contains only the briefest reference, near the end, to the need to carry out environmental impact assessments on the sea bed…

And then I compared the enthusiasm for such environmental degradation with criticism of similar, but non-”green” projects, elsewhere:

…in 2009, the greenprophet website complained that Dubai’s artificial islands project was causing environmental damage. As recently as March 2019, the Guardian reported in critical terms on the Hong Kong government’s plans to build one of the world’s largest artificial islands, discussing claims that the island could damage the environment and marine life. In 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, as well as rejecting China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, ruled that China’s building of artificial islands there had caused environmental damage.

But you’ll look in vain for environmental criticism of any artificial islands constructed for the purposes of supplying “renewable” energy. The BBC’s article on the subject of Denmark’s “energy island”, published on its website on 4^th February 2021 made no mention of possible environmental issues, and (like the Guardian) is gushing in its general tone. The Euronews online article (which invited me to sign up for its green newsletter) was similar in tone and content. The same is true of Forbes, DW (Deutsche Welle), the Independent, and pretty much any news website that has reported on the story.

Certainly the Energinet magazine has no environmental doubts. It talks breathlessly of these “enormous constructions” and refers in awestruck terms to “the spectacular feat it will be to build artificial islands hundreds of kilometres from shore”:

The energy islands in Denmark will be an artificial island 100 kilometres off the west coast of Jutland in the North Sea, and Bornholm in the middle of the Baltic Sea. From the early 2030s, these will together collect 6 GW of offshore wind power and connect Denmark with Germany and Belgium via new interconnections. The energy island in the North Sea will later be expanded to at least 10 GW. On Bornholm, Energinet, the Technical University of Denmark, the Municipality of Bornholm and several other parties have joined forces in Baltic Energy Island – an international meeting place for the development of energy islands and green energy.

All this is necessary, in part at least, because of the difficulty of harnessing offshore wind on a large scale:

…the task is to create a power grid at sea that is meshed, and thus flexibly connects production and consumption, just like the power grid on land. But when you connect wind turbines and the power grids of several countries, the power must flow as direct current over very large distances, before connecting to the power grid in a given country using a converter station…

…Direct current does not produce reactive power in cables, and can therefore be transported over very long distances without significant energy losses. The meshed power grid at sea therefore needs to be made of DC cables, but these present other challenges. Put very simply, the challenges with direct current can be reduced to two things: An offshore DC grid will require highly complicated control systems, and it is far more difficult to decouple direct current at high voltage levels than it is to decouple alternating current…

…“The challenge with direct current is that the current never drops to zero, so if you try to cut off the current, an arc or spark will result, and burn at several thousand degrees. We do not have materials that can withstand this, so there is a risk of explosion and hazard to the surroundings and security of supply.” A set of contacts that can decouple direct current at a very high voltage level – a DC circuit breaker – is not currently in operation anywhere in Europe. They are being developed, and some manufacturers are taking orders. But it is immature technology, even though some are in operation in China. As the offshore DC grid grows larger, DC circuit breakers will become vitally important. Without them, it will not be possible to isolate faults in parts of the grid from the rest of the grid, and the system therefore cannot be operated safely.

I am not an engineer, and I can see that they are all too aware of the difficulties. But are they putting the cart before the horse? And of course they wouldn’t have these difficulties if they weren’t so obsessed with “decarbonisation”.

A Huge Task to Ensure Energy in Time

Here I will offer up a few quotes from the magazine under this heading, demonstrating the gargantuan scale of this folly:

Energinet is expanding the electricity grid all over Denmark. 3300 km of new electricity connections are in the pipeline. Excavators are already digging in places, and soon to start in others. Seventy high-voltage substations will be either expanded or newly built, so that new solar cell farms, wind turbines and large electricity consumers, such as hydrogen plants, can be connected. There is activity everywhere. But this is just the beginning. Much more will be coming in the years ahead. Between 2023 and 2026, we will invest DKK 41 billion in the electricity transmission system. In many ways, the future will turn the whole power system upside down. Power will be generated in parts of Denmark that lack both the local consumption to use it and power connections with enough capacity to transmit it elsewhere. Electricity generation and consumption will also be multiplied, as we acquire electric vehicles and heat pumps, and need green electricity for things like green fuels for planes, ships and industry. In order to meet the Folketing’s ambitious 2030 goal, all parts of society will have to pull together in the right direction, and quickly…

We are building ahead and expanding the electricity grid. In North Jutland, two new 1100 MW high-voltage substations are on the way, even though ‘only’ 700 MW and 850 MW of solar cell projects are currently planned around these…

We have outsourced projects with a total cost of DKK 10 billion to companies that will supply turnkey power lines and high-voltage substations…

There is a large increase in electricity generation facilities (typically solar cells and large consumers) seeking connection to the electricity transmission grid: 2020: 10 plants, 2021: 25 plants, 2022: 47 plants…

Due to the dramatic acceleration in the expansion of green energy towards 2030, we are bringing forward projects in the long-term development plan. Many of the plants that quite recent analyses predicted had to be ready by 2040, must now be ready by 2030. Plans are in place for the future power grid, but they are being executed more quickly…

Solar cell farms with as much capacity as a large power station, and new electricity consumers that will double Denmark’s electricity consumption. Enormous amounts of consumption and generation are to be added to the electricity transmission grid: 2020: 1.8 GW (1.6 GW generation, 0.2 GW consumption), 2021: 7 GW (3.7 GW generation, 3.3 GW consumption), 2022: 9.1 GW (6.7 GW generation, 2.4 GW consumption). For comparison: Denmark’s maximum consumption in 2022: 6.4 GW.

Electricity generation will be multiplied and will often fluctuate as the wind blows, and consumption will grow markedly. This will create much larger imbalances. Secure supply requires balance between production and consumption. We are therefore looking for new, flexible market participants – from electric vehicle owners to large hydrogen factories – who can provide the reserve power and ancillary services for the future power system.

New Plants Boost Danish Biogas

Money and practicality are no object, it seems. Seven new plants, at a total cost of around DKK 773 million, will allow Denmark to establish what they call “a completely green gas system” at “record pace” in the coming years. This involves “turning the entire gas system upside down” (their words, not mine). Apparently they have to do this because the plan is that “in just a few years” biogas has to completely replace natural gas in the Danish system. I love this paragraph:

Until the new plants come online in 2024-2026, Energinet and Evida – the public enterprise responsible for the Danish gas distribution grid – are working on temporary solutions to prevent excess gas arising in local biogas pockets in the short term, which could have to be flared.

It’s one problem after another:

Locally produced biogas not only needs to be raised to higher pressure in order to move from the gas distribution grids into the gas transmission grid. It is also necessary to remove the odorant that is added before the gas reaches consumers. The gas itself is odourless, and the odorant enables consumers to detect gas leaks. Odorant is currently added when natural gas moves from the transmission grid into the local distribution networks, or at the biogas plants. When gas from the distribution systems is to be injected into the transmission system, the odorant must be filtered out, as it might otherwise cause problems.

The Danish gas system is directly connected to Poland and Germany, which do not want odorant in the transmission systems, as it can affect valves, measuring equipment and gas storage facilities. It is therefore necessary to remove the odorant when gas from the local gas distribution systems is fed into the gas transmission system, for export reasons also.

There are other problems too…

The Green Power System’s Enormous Challenge: How Do We Maintain Balance?

If the above isn’t enough to make one a little bit sceptical, I think this is the point where it’s reasonable to question the sanity of those who comprise western Europe’s establishment, and who are imposing the whole “net zero” project on us without much, if any, meaningful discussion of the implications, and certainly without allowing anything so inconvenient as a democratic vote on it.

I couldn’t express the problem any more clearly than the way it is set out in the opening paragraph of the article under the above heading in the Energinet magazine:

The green transition, green energy and green hydrogen production all sound so good. But the green transition also entails the huge and potentially expensive challenge of balancing the future power grid. Because as we get more electricity from fluctuating sources such as wind and solar power, it may be necessary to purchase lots of reserve power and flexibility.

Specifically:

The employees involved in balancing the electricity system work each day to solve one of the most difficult aspects of the green transition: The fact that green energy is more unstable, with a risk of many large imbalances.

The relationship between power generation and consumption is constantly under threat from imbalances and potential technical faults, that could result in grid outages. In these situations, the purchased reserves (ancillary services) are activated – in a few seconds or a few minutes – to make adjustments, up or down, and restore balance in the gird.

Ancillary services can take the form of reserve capacity that is constantly available, eg from large batteries – or a power station that is standing by to supply more energy.

This whole balancing act is difficult enough already. But it will become even more challenging in just a few years when the power system is to run purely on renewable energy:

“From a balancing perspective, having fewer thermal power stations involved makes things difficult, because they are good at providing ancillary services. They are easy to ramp up and down. At the same time as we are losing some of the traditional providers, we have to buy more because the need is increasing. This is because electrification means generally higher electricity consumption, and because our energy sources will fluctuate more, creating more and larger imbalances,” says Kia Marie Jerichau.

She also mentions the obvious challenge in a system based on a lot of wind and solar energy: What happens when there is no wind or sunshine? Who is going to be standing by as reserve and balance the system?

Good question. Indeed, these are the points that we sceptics have been making for years. Until now I thought that nobody had been paying any attention. And as we frequently point out, not only is the technological challenge immense (and perhaps impossible), it’s also hugely expensive:

All this means that even more ancillary services may have to be purchased. Many more. And that could be expensive. Or rather – even more expensive than today. Because the cost of ancillary services in Denmark has already almost doubled in just one year, from DKK 1.4 billion in 2021 to DKK 2.7 billion in 2022.

New Technology in Old Power Systems Can Help Balance the Power System

Apparently, a new energy storage technology, whereby heat from green electricity is stored in molten salt, can also provide ancillary services as a side benefit:

“We exploit the fact that we can use electricity to heat salt to very high temperatures, thereby storing energy. When the need arises, we can extract the energy and use it to drive a steam turbine – the classic method for generating electricity in CHP plants,” explains Nis Benn, Commercial Director at Hyme Energy.

Or we could just use the old technology…

The New Energy System Calls For New Payment Model

A new green energy system will cost a lot of money, but can become needlessly expensive and inefficient if we fail to ensure that the changes are accompanied by new frameworks and conditions, which make it attractive to electricity consumers and producers alike to give the green transition a helping hand. And which lead to a fair distribution of the costs of operating and expanding the power grid.

Hmm. Sounds a bit like all the claptrap endlessly parroted in the UK about a “just transition” that never seems to materialise. It seems that flexibility is the key – obviously a euphemism for forcing consumers to consume when power is avaliable, but not when it isn’t. Even if it isn’t available when consumers would otherwise prefer it to be. And so power will be cheaper when it’s available but possibly not much wanted, and more expensive when there’s not much of it available, but lots of people would like to use it. Or, in management-speak, since the new shiny energy system is inadequately flexible, consumers will have to be flexible (or malleable) instead, and it may cost them quite a lot of money if they’re not prepared to use energy only when it’s abundant:

The tariffs date from a time when power generation could be quickly adjusted to match consumer demand. They do not take into account whether consumers use electricity when the grid is under least load, or how much available capacity they want. We are moving rapidly towards a power system where electricity generation depends on wind and solar power, and is thus much less flexible. Consumption therefore has to be flexible instead. We have therefore decided to change the way we set tariffs.

Imagine

I’d like to imagine a world where common sense was once more in vogue. However, that’s not what the Energinet magazine invites us to imagine. Instead we have to:

Imagine a digital platform that connects the electricity and gas motorways in a single Danish energy system, and makes it possible to control and transport energy from all offshore wind farms, gas storage facilities, international connections, power stations, solar cells, biogas plants and onshore wind turbines. Picture Denmark’s control centres for electricity and gas, which draw on all this data every minute, in combination with weather forecasts for solar and wind power and international market predictions for electricity and gas consumption. And consider also the rising cyber threat from hackers around the world. If you picture all these elements, you will have a general idea of the task Energinet has began to undertake at a fast pace, in one of its largest IT investments to date.

I touched on all this from the UK point of view in Fingers in the Pie. As in the UK, so it is in Denmark (and vice versa):

We have to be able to transmit and share an unprecedented amount of data, because the future green energy system will be made up of far more units than today, which supply or draw on the system. The increasing complexity of the energy supply also demands intelligent and automated control in our control centres. In other words, everything has to communicate if we are to ensure a stable energy supply in Denmark in the future…

…The recent war and supply chain crisis in Europe has shown us, more than ever before, that energy supply is a critical nerve in society, which can unfortunately also become a target. An extremely high level of security is therefore essential for supply-critical data and IT systems.

Conclusion

Not surprisingly the good folks at Energinet are very pleased with all the hard work they are doing to try to ensure that Denmark has a functioning energy system, despite the rather…shall we say… mad demands of their political masters. Because they are at the sharp end, they are painfully aware of the costs and problems involved in the “transition”, and they set them out very fully in their magazine. I suppose they have no choice other than to say that they are a challenge that can be met, and that all the many problems can be solved. Also that it’s essential to do all this.

Standing on the outside looking in, I am far from convinced. Indeed, from here it looks like a kind of madness; regrettably, a kind of madness that is also being pursued by the UK establishment. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world looks on in a mixture of bemusement and delight.