The prevailing narrative in the mainstream media regarding the UK climate is that it is becoming increasingly chaotic, and we must take urgent steps both to mitigate against climate change (as if we in the UK could do anything meaningful in this regard, while greenhouse gas emissions in much of the world are growing) and to adapt against its effects. That being the case, it is interesting to look at the most recent in a series of reports relating to the UK climate, the report in question being “State of the UK Climate 2021”. This, the eighth in a series of such reports, is probably the most definitive report on this topic, appearing on the Royal Meteorological Society website, and being mostly based, as it says, on:

observations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and wind speed from the UK land weather station network as managed by the Met Office and a number of key partners and co-operating volunteers.

Given its reliance on data supplied by the Met Office, one might be slightly cautious about this claim:

The observations are carefully managed such that they conform to current best-practice observational standards as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The reasons for caution are set out by Jit here and by Paul Homewood here, here, here and here. Be that as it may, this report is the best we have, so we should look at its findings for 2021 to see how disastrously the UK’s climate is deteriorating in front of our eyes.

The first thing to note is that the most recent 30-year reference period is changed from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020. There is of course a lot of detail, about all aspects of the weather, sea-level and much else, with seasons looked at as much as the year overall. From the executive summary the first piece of information, however, is distinctly underwhelming:

Overall, UK temperature and sunshine for 2021 were near average and rainfall slightly below.

As for land temperature:

2021 was 0.1°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, and 18th warmest in the UK series from 1884.

But there was quite a bit of seasonal variation, none of which seems to have been predicted, to be predictable, or to be something we can do much to adapt against:

Winter and spring were colder than the 1991–2020 average. However, 2021 included the UK’s ninth warmest summer and equal-third warmest autumn on record in series from 1884.

Despite the most recent decade showing declining days of both ground and air frost, 2021 bucked that trend:

The numbers of air and ground frosts in 2021 were above the 1991–2020 average.

The numbers of air frosts and ground frosts in April 2021 were the highest on record for the UK in series from 1960.

That’s probably bad news, but is the opposite of what we have been told to expect.

On the other hand, this doesn’t look like bad news to be worried about and guarded against:

Heating and cooling degree days in 2021 were near the 1991–2020 average. Growing degree days were seventh highest for the UK in a series from 1960.

As for near-coast sea surface temperature:

2021 was ranked 20th warmest year for UK near-coastal sea-surface temperature (SST) in a series from 1870.

Again, then, a gently warming trend with no great drama in view.

Well surely rainfall must have been significant? After all, this is something the media constantly tell us is becoming more dramatic. Well, not really:

2021 rainfall was 95% of the 1991–2020 average and 102% of the 1961–1990 average.

There were some monthly variations within those statistics, but again nothing that seems to have been predicted or to be readily predictable:

2021 included the UK’s fifth driest April and second wettest May in monthly series from 1836.

Snow is a particularly problematic from of precipitation. What about it?

For a week in early February the UK experienced its most widespread and significant snow event since late February to early March 2018.

In terms of overall snowiness, 2021 was a fairly average year when compared to the last 60 years…

Sunshine, then. Surely there’s some drama here?

The UK 2021 annual sunshine total was 99% of the 1991–2020 average.

But, here it is – the big reveal:

April 2021 was the UK’s equal-sunniest April on record in a series from 1919, shared with April 2020, and also the sunniest calendar month of the year.

Well, it’s definitely getting stormier, isn’t it?

With the notable exception of storm Arwen, the year was less stormy than most other years in recent decades.

There have been fewer occurrences of max gust speeds exceeding 40/50/60 Kt for the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

The UK annual mean wind speed for 2021 was second lowest in a series from 1969.

The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2021 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally.

Oh.

However, this series must be interpreted with some caution.

We aren’t told why it has to be treated with caution, but the need to do so is obvious – it contradicts the prevailing narrative.

What about leaves? They’re a good indicator of a warming climate.

First leaf dates in 2021 were earlier than the baseline (1999–2020) for species that leaf earlier in the season (e.g., Elder normally in March), but delayed by the cold April for later leafing species (e.g., Pedunculate Oak normally in April). This resulted in a mixed spring overall.

Bare tree dates in 2021 were 2–5 days later than normal with Pedunculate Oak pushed back to early December.

Overall, the 2021 leaf-on season was only 1–7 days longer than the 1999–2020 baseline because of the colder spring.


Not a lot to see there, then.

Conclusion

I am being slightly flippant. The detail is very impressive and the report is well worth a read by anyone with an interest in this subject. However, the main thing to take away (albeit, of course, this is a report on only a single year’s weather) is that the catastrophic narrative with regard to the UK’s climate seems to be greatly exaggerated.

23 Comments

  1. Don’t worry. They WILL do better with this year’s ‘State of the UK Climate 2022’, which I imagine is due to be published very soon. 40C! Who can forget that?

    “The year of 2022 will be remembered for the passing of two significant milestones – a daily maximum temperature of more than 40C and a national average temperature over the year of more than 10C.

    In this review, we unpack the UK’s climate of 2022 and show that both these notable records were highly unlikely to have occurred without the influence of human-caused climate change.”

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-a-review-of-the-uks-climate-in-2022/

    I just noticed this comparison of CET with the UK temperature series on that web page. How very interesting. The Met office have really snookered themselves by publishing this graph. It doesn’t prove what they are claiming it proves, i.e. that CET verifies the reality of man-made climate change. I’ll be writing about this very soon.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Jaime,

    I confess to having been keen to comment on the report on UK’s 2021 climate/weather before the 2022 report is published (which will presumably happen very soon). As you say, 2022 will definitely “do better”, given the summer drought and the fake temperature record set at RAF Coningsby. The ante will be well and truly upped, I’m sure.

    And I must confess also to having been a little flippant, since averages (and 2021 was a very “average” year with regard to the UK’s weather) can hide a host of extremes from day to day and month to month. Still, having said that, 2021 was in no sense an “extreme” year. Search the report for word “extreme” and we learn that extreme sea levels were avoided as the only notable storm – Storm Arwen – occurred during low water and a neap tide. Yes, the Met Office issued its first extreme heat warning for the UK, but not because temperatures were really extreme, rather because that was when they introduced the new system of warnings to hype all things climatological. Interestingly, the report refers to the warmer periods, (when temperatures were in the high 20sC and even reaching 30C) as periods of fine weather, which I suspect is how most people would describe it.

    Usefully, and personally I think this is very positive, we also learn of:

    a slight increase in sunshine from a low during the 1960s–1980s to a sunnier period from 2000 onwards. The most recent decade (2012–2021) has had for the UK on average 8% more hours of bright sunshine than the 1961–1990 average and 2% more than the 1991–2020 average. This trend is apparent across all countries but is largest across England. This trend is mainly due to winter and spring, where the most recent decade is 13%/15% higher than 1961–1990.

    They attribute it not to “climate change” but to changes in aerosol emissions.

    Overall, I think on any metric, most people would describe the UK’s 2021 weather as much more pleasant, less extreme, and more useful than the weather described in Isaac Fletcher’s diaries in the mid-late 18th century.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The one problem I have is about the data. Did anything change? Did the location where the temp. was being changed? Might it now be nearer to like a black asphalt Surface? Data can easily be made to report exactly what they want. It to easy to cherry pick data. Move the location to the parking lot. Put the device in a over after baking. Measure only during the day and not in the shade.Also Did anyone verity their readings. Was this study paid for by a climate Change supporter. Was any third party involved?
    It remands a fact that NATURAL CAUSES might change the climate either colder or warmer. The climate is not constant. It changes from time to time, and anything done to try to prevent it is foolish on one hand and maybe evil on another. Always the best course is not to control nature but to be prepared for any natural coming changes.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. A word to the wise,

    That’s why I linked to Jit’s article and to various articles by Paul Homewood at NALOPKT. The records are not as trustworthy as they might be.

    Having said that, even allowing for the unreliability of Met Office data, I think it’s clear that the data shows gentle trends with regard to the UK climate, such as slow warming (more at the cold end of the register than at the hot end – which is a good thing) and declining wind speeds (also a good thing). My own guess is that this is partly natural and partly man-made. As you say, the climate has always changed naturally over time, so it would seem to be ridiculous to suggest that this time, for the first time ever, natural change is nowhere to be seen.

    It’s the Apocalyptic nature of the claims about the UK climate that stick in my craw. By and large it is becoming less, not more, extreme, and life in the early 21st century is – weather-wise – a lot pleasanter than it was in the golden and semi-mythical “pre-industrial” era that seems to be the paradigm that has to be preserved at all costs.

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  5. Mark, when they can’t blame CO2 for heating, they revert to blaming anthropogenic aerosols for cooling and, in the case you pointed to, variations in sunshine. Natural weather has been banned. In reality, a complex interconnection of tropical multidecadal variability and north Atlantic multidecadal variability is almost certainly responsible for the mid 20th century cooling and lack of sunshine, the 1976 Pacific climate shift, the late 20th century rapid warming and the current sunshine highs. Real meteorological science and data are being deliberately suppressed in order to convince us that the climate and weather are being driven by man, not nature.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Despite an anodyne 2021 in UK< we still get this:

    "Leaked UK government plan to protect against climate heat ‘very weak’
    Exclusive: Document ‘falls far short’ of what is needed to safeguard lives and livelihoods from heat, drought and storms, say experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/17/new-uk-government-plan-to-protect-against-climate-heat-very-weak

    The government’s plan to cope with the climate crisis has been condemned as “very weak” by experts, who say not enough is being done to protect lives and livelihoods.

    Responding to the document, which was leaked to the Guardian, one highlighted its failure to adequately protect people in the UK from extreme heat. The heatwave in 2022, when temperatures surpassed 40C for the first time, led to the early deaths of more than 3,000 people, wildfires, buckled rail lines and farmers struggling with drought. Southern Europe is in the grip of a searing heatwave…

    …Ministers have been criticised for years over the failure to make adequate plans for the impacts of global heating. The CCC said in March that the UK was “strikingly unprepared” and that there had been a “lost decade” in action on adaptation. It said heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms would intensify in the coming years until carbon emissions reached net zero.

    “The new plan falls far short of being a strategy that will ensure the protection of lives and livelihoods against more frequent and intense floods, droughts and heatwaves,” said Bob Ward, policy director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics….

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  7. Inevitably, the BBC has the same story:

    “Climate change plan will leave UK unprepared, advisers warn”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66148239

    …The Third National Adaptation Plan (NAP) outlines how the government intends to prepare the UK for climate change from health to housing….

    …Following its publication on Monday, Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee of the UKCCC, said that the plan shows that preparing for climate change still needs to be made a more important priority for the country.

    “This is progress on previous plans… but we are disappointed the government hasn’t used this opportunity to go further,” she said. “In another summer of gruelling hot temperatures, water shortages and wildfires, it’s hard to make sense of that decision. We are at the stage where promising further action is not enough.

    “The scale of the climate impacts we are seeing make clear that resilience to climate change should be a much greater national priority.”…

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  8. “The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2021 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally.”

    Consistent with the rise in numbers and electricity-generating capacity of energy-sapping wind turbines?

    /sarc

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Joe,

    Your comment might be sarcastic, but it’s interesting to observe how much reliance is being placed on wind turbines at the very time when wind speeds are showing an observable decline both here in the UK and globally.

    Like

  10. I thought wind turbines were stopped from turning at high wind speeds. Thus if average wind speeds reduce, this should mean less turning off of turbines because of high wind periods.

    Like

  11. Alan,

    You make a fair point, of course.

    However, the problem with wind power is that it’s a bit like the porridge in Goldilocks and the Three Bears – it has to be just right. If it’s far too windy, they have to be switched off for safety reasons. If there’s too much wind, but not so much that they have to be turned off for safety reasons, some of them end up being shut down and rewarded with constraints payments, because the National Grid can’t cope. If there’s little wind, they don’t produce much energy, and if there’s no wind, they don’t produce any energy at all. We have to have just the right amount of wind.

    In the UK, the authorities are placing a huge bet on wind energy. If they call it wrong it could be disastrous. Are they watching the long-term wind trends to make sure they’ve placed their bet wisely? I’d like to think so, but given the dog’s dinner that is UK energy policy currently, that’s not a bet I would place much money on.

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  12. Despite the addition of 3.9% capacity during 2021, Gt Britain’s generation by wind dropped from 54.66GWh in 2020 to 48.98GWh in 2021.

    Naturally, biased sections of the MSM broadcast from the rooftops the ‘increase’ to 61.64GWh for 2022, but most, if not all, failed to mention 2022’s additional 8.7% capacity increase.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. A point I should have made when writing about the UK’s weather in 2021 is that it was a year when there was a “wind drought” in the UK and across Europe. I haven’t heard a single politician or other advocate of wind energy concede that such a development might give pause for thought before ploughing on with the plan to be increasingly reliant on wind power.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Did the BBC update its 2019 Matt McGrath piece in 2022, or did we all miss it?

    “Renewable energy: Rise in global wind speed to boost green power

    A new study suggests that global wind speeds have increased substantially since 2010 after decades of decline.

    Scientists say they believe that changes in the patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation are behind the rise.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50464551#

    Bloody climate keeps changing!

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Joe Public,

    Thanks for that. I assume this article in the Scientific American (19th November 2019) was covering the same study:

    “The World’s Winds Are Speeding Up
    The trend contradicts concerns of a “global stilling,” with implications for wind energy”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-worlds-winds-are-speeding-up/

    It’s more than a little ironic, then, that 2021 did what it did. Even the Conversation noticed it at the time:

    “What Europe’s exceptionally low winds mean for the future energy grid”

    https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-winds-mean-for-the-future-energy-grid-170135

    Through summer and early autumn 2021, Europe experienced a long period of dry conditions and low wind speeds. The beautifully bright and still weather may have been a welcome reason to hold off reaching for our winter coats, but the lack of wind can be a serious issue when we consider where our electricity might be coming from.

    To meet climate mitigation targets, such as those to be discussed at the upcoming COP26 event in Glasgow, power systems are having to rapidly change from relying on fossil fuel generation to renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower. This change makes our energy systems increasingly sensitive to weather and climate variability and the possible effects of climate change.

    That period of still weather badly affected wind generation. For instance, UK-based power company SSE stated that its renewable assets produced 32% less power than expected. Although this may appear initially alarming, given the UK government’s plans to become a world leader in wind energy, wind farm developers are aware these low wind “events” are possible, and understanding their impact has become a hot topic in energy-meteorology research…

    …The latest IPCC report suggests that average wind speeds over Europe will reduce by 8%-10% as a result of climate change. It is important to note that wind speed projections are quite uncertain in climate models compared with those for near-surface temperatures, and it is common for different model simulations to show quite contrasting behaviour.

    Colleagues and I recently analysed how wind speeds over Europe would change according to six different climate models. Some showed wind speeds increasing as temperatures warm, and others showed decreases. Understanding this in more detail is an ongoing topic of scientific research. It is important to remember that small changes in wind speed could lead to larger changes in power generation, as the power output by a turbine is related to the cube of the wind speed (a cubic number is a number multiplied by itself three times. They increase very fast: 1, 8, 27, 64 and so on)….

    …With all the talk of wind power being the answer to our energy needs, amid spiralling gas prices and the countdown to COP26, the recent wind drought is a clear reminder of how variable this form of generation can be and that it cannot be the sole investment for a reliable future energy grid. Combining wind with other renewable resources such as solar, hydropower and the ability to smartly manage our electricity demand will be critical at times like this summer when the wind is not blowing.

    Alternatively you might conclude that betting the house on unpredictable and unreliable renewable energy isn’t the shrewdest move when seeking energy security.

    Like

  16. The author of the following article is far better qualified in his subject than I am, but it’s difficult to avoid wondering if he read the report about the weather in the UK in 2021.

    “I thought the government’s plan to protect Britain from extreme heat would be bad. It’s worse than that”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/20/government-plan-britain-extreme-heat-society-economy

    It’s hard not to wonder if the government is living on another planet. One that isn’t in the grip of the highest temperatures ever recorded, where tens of thousands of people are not dying every summer in blistering heatwaves, where the oceans aren’t boiling. This is the only explanation for the colossally inadequate national climate adaptation programme released this week.

    There is so much wrong with it that it’s hard to know where to begin. The programme actually constitutes the third of three five-year plans, and therein lies the main problem. You can’t plan in five-year chunks for climate mayhem that is set to last for decades, probably centuries. If it is to make living in Hothouse Britain safer and more bearable, any plan worth its salt has to look much further ahead and take in the bigger picture.

    You won’t find anything in the programme about how the country will cope when temperatures don’t just top 40C for a day but for a week or more, when river and surface floods arrive that dwarf anything we have seen, or when the sea comes in and stays in. As it stands, it is simply not fit for purpose….

    And much much more in similar vein.

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  17. “You won’t find anything in the programme about how the country will cope when temperatures don’t just top 40C for a day but for a week or more”. Er, one minute to be more precise. Probably whilst a Typhoon was passing by.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Mark, I mentioned last week we are going with the G’kids to Arran for a week starting tomorrow. We got an email from Calmac last Friday informing us our 14:00 ferry booking had been moved to 16:25 for operational reasons , okay , more time to pick up kids. Surprise surprise we got another email from Calmac TODAY our booking for TOMORROW has been moved back to 13:50 ! How can they run a LIFELINE service this way ? Calmac is owned by the SNP , they also part own Scotrail which somehow is doing slightly better . Fingers crossed for tomorrow .

    Like

  19. JamesS,

    I wish you luck.

    I feel sorry for CalMac, given that their business is being destroyed by political incompetence. My wife and I have had plenty of problems in the past with CalMac ferries not running as and when they should, but the staff were always excellent, and compensation has been fully and freely paid, which makes a refreshing change.

    On one occasion, when we were holidaying with friends in Jura, all the mobile phones started pinging away furiously as we gained height climbing the Paps and came with mobile reception (the hotel where we were all staying had no reception). It became apparent that CalMac had been desperately trying to contact us all to let us know about the changes to the ferry schedule. The frequent interruptions to the service are far from great, but I do give CalMac staff full marks for trying to make the problems as painless and bearable as possible.

    On a point of order, CalMac isn’t owned by the SNP, it is owned by the Scottish Government, which with luck won’t always see the SNP in power!

    Like

  20. As regards the 2021 wind drought, Ed Hoskins has updated data for 2022:

    A few graphs say it all for European Weather-Dependent “Renewables”

    This seems particularly relevant:

    In 2022, the EU+UK fleet of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” installed amounted to ~438GW, which contributed power output to the Grid of ~78 Gigawatts. 2022 was another poor year for Wind power generation with an overall Weather-Dependent “Renewables” annual productivity of 17.8%. Data: eurobser-er.org – ref.org.

    These actual levels of the productivity of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” as recorded show precisely how dilute and ineffective the Wind and Sun are as sources of power for the continuous support of a developed economy, as in Europe.

    Measured productivity in the region of ~17% requires almost six times the scale of the installations and their associated extra costs when compared to Conventional generators to unreliably and intermittently deliver the same amount of power to the Grid over the year. Even so, there is no ability to control the timing of power production whether it is useful that moment at the time or not. So, when their recorded productivity is taken into account, the comparative costs associated with Weather-Dependent “Renewables” installations are very much higher certainly than Gas or Coal firing and they even exceed the costs of Nuclear power significantly….

    Like

  21. Speaking of wind trends:

    “SSE’s renewables output hit by lack of wind but profits remain on track: reaction
    SSE, the Perth-headquartered power generating giant, has seen its renewables output hit by a lack of wind though its annual profits remain on track.”

    https://www.scotsman.com/business/sses-renewables-output-hit-by-lack-of-wind-but-profits-remain-on-track-reaction-4225445

    “Dry and still weather patterns” led to a shortfall of around 5 per cent from the group’s renewable facilities during the first quarter of its financial year but the first few weeks of the second quarter have seen a return to more normal conditions….

    Like

  22. More on wind speeds:

    “Scotland’s economy: Becalmed and misunderstood”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-66664597

    Output from the Scottish economy contracted across April to June, edged downward by lower wind speeds meaning lower power generation than usual….

    …Scotland’s economy is showing just one of the consequences of climate change – when the wind drops, so does Gross Domestic Product.

    That vital sign of economic health – some would say it’s a virility symbol – has taken a knock with the latest GDP estimate from the Scottish government.

    It shows the second quarter of the year saw total output – across manufacturing, production, onshore energy, construction and the public sector – dropped by 0.3%. That’s a steep drop by most standards.

    The UK economy was growing by 0.2% in the same three months. It was helped up by the warm weather in June, as a cue to consumers to get out and spend, on holidays, summer clothes and hospitality.

    But that high pressure weather system also meant the wind dropped to low levels. And with Scotland having a large share of the UK’s onshore wind capacity, its economy felt the consequences. As more turbines are installed, the numbers are likely to become more volatile….

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  23. Mark – liked this partial quote from your comment –
    “That vital sign of economic health – some would say it’s a virility symbol”
    oops – that will get some pushback.
    me 1st – wind turbines are gender neutral, just because they are erected should not imply male virility status.

    Like

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