There is no null hypothesis
On 12 August 2020 a 125 hit a landslip near Stonehaven, killing three and injuring 6 (there were only 9 on the train; the pandemic meant that few people were travelling). Today we found out why:
Faulty drainage work blamed for fatal Stonehaven derailment
A drainage system was installed in 2011 and 2012 by now-collapsed contractor Carillion – but it was not in accordance with the design. Had it been constructed correctly, it was “highly likely to have safely accommodated the flow of surface water” on the day of the crash, the report concluded.
But a memory stirred sluggishly below the surface of my mind. Wasn’t this tragedy blamed almost instantly on climate change? 12 August 2020, the date of the crash itself:
Three dead after passenger train derails near Stonehaven
Scrolling down, we find analysis by David Shukman, Science Editor. Quoth the sage:
It’s long been recognised that landslips are one of the greatest risks to Britain’s railways and that a changing climate will make them more likely. Heatwaves and droughts can dry out the steep embankments beside the tracks, and over the years will start to weaken them. Add to that the effects of heavy rain, of the kind seen just now in Scotland, saturating and eroding the soil, and undermining its strength. And with rising global temperatures set to bring extremes of weather never anticipated by the Victorian engineers who built the lines, Network Rail has been studying how best to keep the tracks safe. But it admits that “we know we can’t rebuild every mile of railway”.
So dry is bad, and so is wet. (I’ve removed the line breaks from the above quote. Every paragraph was formed of a single sentence, including the one beginning “and.” )
After a month Network Rail released an interim report, described thusly by the BBC:
Stonehaven derailment: Report says climate change impact on railways ‘accelerating’
Not much wriggle room there. But on this occasion the BBC is accurately reporting what Network Rail said:
The report notes: “Climate change considerations are being embedded in our standards and planning. “But it is clear from the impact of severe weather events experienced in recent years that this is an area that is accelerating faster than our assumptions, and as a result it has become even more important to implement these plans.”
Scrolling down, we have analysis by Kevin Keane, Environment Correspondent. Quoth the junior sage:
Technology is being developed, like more detailed rainfall forecasting and movement sensors for the most ‘at risk’ sites. But until then it hints that more speed restrictions will be introduced during the heaviest rain along with line closures to allow for inspections. So you can add climate change to the list of potential reasons for your train being delayed.
If something bad happens, it’s because of climate change. There is no null hypothesis that it might have happened anyway. There certainly isn’t an alternate hypothesis, for example that an improperly installed drain might have had something to do with it.
A snip from the Rail Accident Investigation Branch’s animation of the derailment, to be found in today’s story from the BBC.
As chance would have it I was on that train.
And if you believe that you’ll also believe that climate change had anything to do with it.
Man-made climate change, caused specifically by our greenhouse gas emissions, I mean, of course.
But the shortened form is snappier, and so usefully imprecise as a blame-shifting motif, eh Mr Shukman and Messrs Network Rail?
Well remembered JT.
As I quoted above, in September 2020 Network Rail was saying:
Today, the Guardian:
Fewer climate change astrologers and more competent groundworks engineers perhaps?
Richard, did we meet at Woodstock?
We are going to need to read everything that blames climate change, and then remember it years later when it turns out that “it” was due to something else.
I await the big story on the BBC website explaining that it wasn’t the climate wot dun it.
Jit: I’m offended you have to ask.
You can read the actual RAIB report synopsis here:
Click to access R022022_220310_Carmont_Synopsis.pdf
Paul Homewood also has the same story:
Seems like he beat me to it, too, so I could have saved myself half an hour.
Yes, but I’ve given you a plug over there. Hope you don’t mind. 🙂
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Paul’s posts from the time of the crash and shortly afterwards are valuable – and now verified.
Jit & Mark – I Followed this story on NALOPKT back when it happened & remember one comment near the top from August 14, 2020 –
“RuddyFarmer August 14, 2020 10:28 am
I used to live very close to the accident site and am familiar with the local geology and flash flooding. The soil in that area is a heavy clay. This does not absorb water quickly so after heavy rain the burns (rivers, streams) can rapidly rise causing flooding as was the case in the nearby town of Stonehaven.
In the aerial photos I could not see a river near where the landslip occurred. This suggests to me (I’m not an expert) a build up of water underneath the embankment which could have given way if the underground water pressure increased. This may have been due to a blocked drain. I believe (though i’m not sure) that blocked drains have been an issue on that railway before, and the images of flooded tracks could confirm blocked drains.”
I Love when (I’m not an expert) gets it more or less correct.
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There are bizarre coincidences
“17 Oct 2000 — Special report: the Hatfield train crash … Another passenger, Justin Rowlatt, a Channel 4 news reporter, said”
Yes Rowlatt was a passenger in a deadly train crash”
.. I suspect he may have suffered brain damage ../sarc
They’re still at it, spreading their misinformation:
“UK infrastructure at risk from climate crisis due to ‘extreme weakness’ in government
Joint committee on national security strategy criticises ‘severe dereliction of duty’ by ministers as threat grows”
The article itself doesn’t mention the Stonehaven derailment, but it’s accompanied by a picture of it and the following words: