Reading the Fourth Independent (sic) Assessment of UK Climate Risk, the latest publication from the UK Climate Change Committee, I was reminded of a line from the Dire Straits song, Industrial Disease: “Two men say they’re Jesus. One of them must be wrong.”

Why do I say that? Well, because the Report is Janus-like, looking at two completely different scenarios. Needless to say, they are both catastrophic. First of all, the Committee considers “The UK’s climate at a 2°C global warming level in 2050” and concludes that this is going to lead us to hell on earth:

…by 2050, summers will be significantly warmer, with average summers likely to become much more like recent record summers such as 2018, 2022, and 2025, which all saw significant stresses on agriculture and nature. Warming will be strongest in the South East of England, but significant right across the UK.[The hottest summers will be potentially several degrees hotter than any summers we have had to date.

Heatwaves in the UK will be more frequent, longer, and more intense than they are today. This will lead to increased health impacts, impacts on agriculture, and infrastructure disruption. Maximum temperatures could regularly surpass 40°C in many areas – and the hottest heatwaves could exceed 45°C.

Heatwaves are likely to regularly feature tropical nights – overnight temperatures above 20°C that are very challenging to sleep in – that could extend for around a week.

Heat hazards will continue to be more pronounced in urban areas due to the urban heat island effect where major UK cities can experience temperatures multiple degrees warmer than surrounding rural areas. This urban amplification of heat will likely only grow as the climate continues to warm.

We are also told that this intense heat will be accompanies by growing flood risks:

…flood risk will rise from river, surface water, and coastal sources. The estimated number of residential properties impacted by river, coastal or surface water flooding each year in the UK could rise by nearly 40% (Figure 1.7 and Figure 1.8). For the most intense short duration rainfall events in the 2050s, projected rainfall amounts are expected to increase by 15–60% compared to the late 20th century. Peak river flows will increase by up to 45% for some UK river catchments compared to the late 20th century, particularly in the north and west. In general, western regions, low lying areas, and coastal regions will experience the greatest increase in flood risk in the UK.

There will be an increase in the chance of extreme local downpours, often from thunderstorms, during summer and autumn, driven by warmer temperatures and evaporation. This will lead to significantly increased likelihood of urban and flash flooding (a sudden intense flood that quickly inundates streets, homes, and low-lying areas) due to increased run-off over urban surfaces and steep river catchments.

Sea levels will continue to rise all around the UK coastline and are expected to rise by a further 20–45 cm by 2050, with the southern UK coasts most affected. This will lead to significantly increased coastal erosion and coastal flood risk. Waves generated by storms will more easily exceed the height of existing flood defences without additional adaptation. This trend will continue for centuries to come, even after global temperatures are stabilised.

But at the same time, there will also be an increasing risk of drought and wildfires. The only thing that seems to be missing is a plague of locusts, though they are keen to tell us that we will also see an increase in “climate-sensitive infectious diseases”.

But it’s the heat that’s going to kill us, in all probability. Despite all the evidence that in the UK cold is a much greater problem than heat in terms of its impact on health and mortality, the Report from the Climate Change Committee tells us, apparently with a straight face (under Chapter 4 on Health) that “Heat is the deadliest single climate-related health threat in the UK”.

And so, the entire thrust of the Report is that we need to spend more money in the UK in adapting to this changing climate that is going to see us living in a scorched drought-ridden (but frequently flooded) hell-hole.

And yet, and yet….they’re also worried about “tipping points”. Because here’s the thing – although they’re pretty confident that 2C increase in temperature by 2050 (or 4C by 2100, which they’re keen on saying is a global possibility) will lead to excess heat (and, consequently, deaths) in the UK, then again it might not. That’s because of tipping points. We’ve all heard of them. The Guardian and the BBC both seek to worry us on a regular basis about the possibility of a weakened AMOC (the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). This worries the Climate Change Committee too (see Box 1.4 of the Report):

The UK would face a cooling effect in both summer and winter from a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC – the global system of ocean currents that help to keep Western Europe warmer in winter than similar latitudes in North America) or of the Sub Polar Gyre (SPG) subcomponent of the AMOC. In a full AMOC collapse, this cooling (of around 5°C) would likely reverse the warming effects of human-induced climate change, leaving the UK colder and significantly drier than it was in the past. In a more limited SPG collapse, this cooling (of around 2°C) might offset some of the direct effects of human-induced warming. However, both scenarios would result in changes to weather patterns in the Atlantic as less warmth and moisture would be transported to the UK from the equator. These changes to UK weather would be more pronounced in the full AMOC collapse than SPG collapse.

Still, while we should be worried about this, we shouldn’t be worried immediately. No, for now, we should continue to worry about heat, and that’s where we should focus our adaptation plans:

While evidence is strong that these tipping points exist, the global temperature threshold at which they occur is much more uncertain. More global warming means increased likelihood of tipping points occurring. However, it remains the case that most of these potential tipping points with large impacts on UK climate are unlikely to be realised before late in the century at earliest. This means that regardless of long-term change, there is a clear need to be adapting now to the hottest conditions, with higher flood and drought risk expected in 2050.

The problem with uncertainty is that it really means we don’t know what’s going to happen, and so we don’t know what to do for the best. But the Climate Change Committee thinks it does.

In a way, I’m pleased about this focus on adaptation. After all, it’s what we sceptics have been urging for years, instead of futile and costly attempts at mitigation. Building new reservoirs will cause environmental damage, but new reservoirs are a sad necessity, with or without “climate breakdown”. If you add millions of people to your population without building new reservoirs or fixing your leaking pipes, the odds are that you will encounter water shortages.

The problem with the Climate Change Committee and its Report, however, is that while it’s keen on adaptation (even though if the AMOC overturns we will be spending money on the wrong type of adaptation), it remains very keen indeed on UK Net Zero targets being hit. How could it be otherwise? Under section 34 of the Climate Change Act 2008 it has a duty to advise the government with regard to “carbon budgets”. Unless the Climate Change Act (and with it, the Committee) is abolished, the Committee has to act as it does. The futility of UK Net Zero targets doesn’t seem to occur to it. The Chair’s Foreword to the Report tells us:

It is now nearly 20 years since the Climate Change Act was passed. In many ways, it has been a huge success; in that time the UK has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 42%. But there has been little progress on preparing ourselves for the changing climate. We are already experiencing disruption and damage from the rapidly increasing risks from climate change in the UK today. These risks are not only eroding our cliffs, but also the fundamentals of our health system, our insurance sector, and our children’s schooling.

We in the UK have made great strides in reducing our emissions (let’s ignore the difference between territorial and consumption emissions shall we? That way we can feel better about ourselves). Yet, they tell us, the climate in the UK is changing, and we are not prepared for it.

The Committee agrees that adaptation cannot wait. Keeping people secure is a fundamental duty of the State. This is already being compromised by climate change. Adapting to climate change needs the same level of focus and commitment as geopolitical and other security threats. Damage is already happening which can be avoided. Taking action today is cheaper than taking action tomorrow. The main challenge is leadership, getting adaptation underway at sufficient scale and speed.

In other words, we have wasted a lot of money on futile efforts at mitigation, and we haven’t spent on the money on the more rational objective of adapting to (what the Committee seems to regard as) the inevitable. Indeed, the Committee recognises that the rest of the world isn’t shaping up:

The UK was built for a climate that no longer exists today [sic] and will be increasingly distant in years to come. While efforts to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels must remain a priority, the world is not yet on track for this.

I love the euphemistic “not yet” on track. “Not remotely” might be a fairer assessment.

Despite the failure of the rest of the world to come up to snuff, to follow the UK over the cliffs to industrial and economic oblivion, that doesn’t matter:

The UK can end its contribution to ongoing global climate change by reaching Net Zero emissions.

Sadly, the Report makes no assessment regarding the fact that other than costing us all a great deal of money – money that they now say should be spent on adaptation, to the tune of £11 Billion p.a. – this “contribution”, if and when we complete it, will make absolutely no difference to the global (or UK) climate whatsoever.

Summary

We have to write these reports. The Climate Change Act obliges us to do it. We have to continue to scaremonger about climate change, lest Parliament repeals the Climate Change Act, which would also result in our ceasing to exist. We know we keep writing reports encouraging the UK to lead the rest of the world in the quest for net zero and the fight against climate change, but it hasn’t done any good. The rest of the world hasn’t followed, and the climate has already changed and will keep changing. We’re probably going to die of heatstroke, but if the AMOC weakens, maybe we’ll die of cold. Whatever. We must adapt. Oh yes, and we must keep on with the drive to net zero. We all have to do our bit. Well, we in the UK have to anyway.