Our BBC likes to get absurd soundbites from the spokespeople of inconsequential organisations. When it comes to things related to climate policy, the bottom of the inanity barrel has yet to be scraped.

Note: I am no longer going to use the word “green” in relation to any measure intended or pretended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. (Well, I am; I’m just going to ensure it is firmly placed in snark quotes.) I have had enough of these idiots appropriating language to their advantage. “Clean” is another. And you can add “transition.” The word “transition” implies a certain inevitability. We are here, and we are going there. We don’t want anything to interrupt or slow down the “transition.” Well, the “transition” is not inevitable.

A couple of days ago our BBC reported on the EU’s much-trailed policy change on the 2035 ICE car ban. I won’t call it a screeching U-turn. It’s more a slight hesitation going into a sweeping curve almost flat out. It is reminiscent of Sunak’s phantom U-turn on the UK’s 2030 ICE car ban, or the list of “concessions” David Cameron came back with from the EU when voters wanted out.

Anyway, the mini U-turn, or slight swerve, apparently put pressure on the UK to follow suit. Now that the 2035 ban in the EU was off the table, our 2030 ban looked like an outlier. Here’s an excerpt of our BBC’s commentary.

Opponents of the move have warned that it risks undermining the transition towards electric vehicles and leaving the EU exposed in the face of foreign competition.

The “green” transport group T&E has warned that the UK should not follow the EU’s lead by weakening its own plans to phase out the sale of conventional cars under the Zero Emission Vehicles Mandate.

“The UK must stand firm. Our ZEV mandate is already driving jobs, investment and innovation into the UK. As major exporters we cannot compete unless we innovate, and global markets are going electric fast,” said T&E UK’s director Anna Krajinska.

(My snark quotes)

I think the verb “to warn” is really not appropriate, given the context. And the comment by T&E just struck me as, frankly, absurd. The fact is, the pressure for a change of policy is coming because the present one is causing so much pain. Anyone who knows anything about transport should know that. But when it comes to “green” transport, pain is part of the programme.

The UK must stand firm.

T&E have no right to demand anything of the UK. The UK should do what is right for its citizens. Standing firm – i.e. pushing on with a failing policy – is not the right choice. The obvious choice is to allow the punter to pick the car they like, fairly taxed and agnostic to drivetrain. But what about the climate? If it was about the climate, outfits like this would be advocating lower road tax for old vehicles and programmes to keep them on the road as long as possible, instead of building new vehicles that may end up as scrap before any carbon dioxide “saving” can be realised. They could emphasise the need to maintain and repair vehicles. Why are we allowing manufacturers to restrict the work the owners of their cars can do on them? Why not mandate a spares programme for thirty years from the date of manufacture?

Our ZEV mandate is already driving jobs, investment and innovation into the UK.

A delusional, or disingenuous, comment. The effect of the mandate has been destructive. Europe had a technological advantage – in combustion engines. “Our” mandates meant that advantage was instantly squandered. The UK’s vehicle manufacturing is going off a cliff. (I’ll show data in a minute.) The innovation is coming from outside; it is being imported, based on rules we set, insanely eroding any edge we might have had. What investment? How many large car plants are there in the UK? We’ve got Nissan, Sunderland; Mini, Cowley; JLR; Vauxhall, Ellesmere Port. Lemme just read up on those…

Generally, they seem to be dependent on handouts, and when they’re not dependent on handouts, they want subsidies to build cars no-one want to buy, and incentives to make sure that people buy them. Note that the top news item was in response to the JLR hack. The excerpted text at the very foot comes from the bottom headline. They rather flip-flopped on their liking for the ZEV mandate, if that and the headline above it can be trusted.

As major exporters we cannot compete unless we innovate, and global markets are going electric fast.

We are no longer a major exporter. At its peak, the UK was the second largest exporter. (70 years ago.) UK is now in 12^th spot by value, according to this wiki page showing International Trade Centre data for 2024. That may not sound bad, but our 12^th place represents only 2.6% of global vehicle exports. And if even that doesn’t sound terrible, compare it to vehicle imports. We are in 3^rd place for trade deficit on vehicles, behind only USA and Australia. At about $48 billion of exports and $89 billion of imports, we net -$41 billion on vehicles (not all of them are cars). Is there any reason to suppose this will get any better because of our pursuit of an ICE ban?

So, that’s all a load of bull carp from T&E.

Lemme just show a bit of data on this topic before I go. Firstly, production in the UK maxed out in 1972 on this data. We had terrible consolidation problems in the 1970s as other countries got their manufacturing act together. The early 80s recession hardly even shows as a blip. We recovered stormingly from the financial crisis. The most recent production peak was 2016, and we should note that the inception of the present decline pre-dates the Covid troubles. Read back 2024’s level to the left and see what year you end up at before you hit the blue line again.

In 2012, following the financial crisis, the UK’s production was equivalent to near on 60% of registrations. (Many of the produced cars were exported, of course.) The most recent data shows that production barely equates to 30% of demand. In fact, for the most recent 12 months of data (rolling average), only 9% of production went to the home market.

The cars we are being forced to buy, we can’t build. Others can.

I have something else to say on this topic, if I can muster the enthusiasm. It was going to be rolled into this diatribe, but it got too long. I also have my usual Christmas quiz photo, if I can find it, so look out for that.

Notes

The old data on production comes from this page.

The newer data on registrations come from here.

(Table df_VEH0160_GB)

The newer data on production (since 1992) comes from Wiki here, via ONS.