What is the probability that a car manufactured for the UK in 2001 survived to the ripe old age of 13 years, to still be registered in 2014? Have a guess, go on.

When you’ve done that, the next question – and you’ve probably already asked yourself this as a natural follow-up – is which manufacturers’ vehicles outperformed, and underperformed, against that probability. Now, certain manufacturers have, shall we say, reputations, that their vehicles disintegrate on contact with a mild dose of winter grit. Others are a byword for reliability; the popular opinion is that their vehicles are bullet proof. So: which car maker built the best cars in 2001? And, on the opposite side of the coin, which car makers built cars out of cardboard glued together with strawberry jam?

Why are you interested? I hear you cry. Well, it’s a fair question. The answer is, I was interested to find out. Plus, in the spirit of keeping things going and mending things, it’s quite important to know which cars can actually be kept going and mended.

The data come from the DfT, and are certainly quite messy. There are no doubt errors up and down, but this is probably worst on net for “low volume” vehicles. The survivorship of such vehicles is also questionable: it would be tiresome to track down imports and exports of Bentleys and other luxury vehicles (including, euphemistically, “informal” exports of Range Rovers, etc).

It is quite obvious, speaking of Bentleys, that the value of a vehicle affects how inclined we are to look after it. So there are human factors at play, not merely mechanical and chemical ones. Some cars are used by salespeople and are driven into the ground. Other, smaller vehicles, only trundle around town twice a week, and may live indefinitely, barring corrosion.

End of preamble. Who wins? Here, I report the results for the 33 manufacturers who made at least 10,000 cars for the UK in 2001. This is the first year available in the manufactured-by-year table.

50.5% of cars made in 2001 made it to 2014. (2014 is the first year of data for the survivors-by-year-of-manufacture table.) If that seems shockingly low to you, be prepared to pick up your chin, because here are the worst ten manufacturers, in descending order:

ManufacturerCars alive 2014Cars built 2001Proportion alive after 13 years
CITROEN543941278730.425
CHRYSLER5124121420.422
HYUNDAI10912265200.411
MITSUBISHI8749240320.364
MG5882166630.353
ROVER27192814260.334
FIAT295621014900.291
DAEWOO5537194220.285
KIA2661117720.226
ALFA ROMEO4468199140.224

Only 22.4% of Alfas made it to the 13-year mark. What about the other end of the spectrum?

ManufacturerCars alive 2014Cars built 2001Proportion alive after 13 years
MINI9371113990.822
HONDA45575663090.687
VOLKSWAGEN1230891869720.658
TOYOTA686851076640.638
LEXUS7275115900.628
AUDI35664581560.613
JAGUAR13488225800.597
BMW52355889640.588
SKODA20971357040.587
LAND ROVER23937412740.580

The winner is Mini. Aficionados will know that from 2001, this was not the iconic Austin, but a new design built by BMW. It survived better than BMWs themselves.

Suppose I now asked a rather unfair question: what proportion of the 2001 intake made it to 2024, and thereby lived for at least 23 years? After 13 years, roughly 50% survived. How many survived the next decade?

Overall, less than 5% reached the ripe old age of 23. Here are the best ten:

ManufacturerCars alive 2024Cars built 2001Proportion alive after 23 years
MINI1584113990.139
TOYOTA133721076640.124
LAND ROVER4853412740.118
MAZDA2055183920.112
JAGUAR2440225800.108
LEXUS1228115900.106
SUBARU1060109620.097
HONDA6271663090.095
BMW7890889640.089
AUDI4946581560.085

Mini still wins, with 1 in 7 still alive. I would say that these ten are the best options, if buying an old car to save the planet is your jam. Now, what happened to the generation of cars from a decade later, those built in 2011? What proportion of them made it to their 13th birthday? Perhaps surprisingly, the proportion of survivors is now much higher, at about 74% overall. Here is the new top ten:

ManufacturerCars alive 2024Cars built 2011Proportion alive after 13 years
HONDA45942499530.920
TOYOTA63032726340.868
NISSAN79837938980.850
SUZUKI16400194700.842
MINI40291490360.822
FIAT32868412600.797
VOLVO25748323970.795
HYUNDAI48036605370.793
KIA40975520310.788
FORD2054342613890.786

There’s something about the top four that I can’t quite put my finger on… Interestingly, several car makers from the bottom of the 2001 pack are towards the top of the 2011 pack: Fiat, Hyundai, Kia. Most manufacturers have improved their cars’ survival rates, but the transformation of a few has been rather impressive – see the change in Kias for example.

Now, I have data on individual models (what are called generic models in the tables), but I’m not going to show that, as you’re bored enough already. I will however note that, of models with over ten thousand made in the year 2011, the humble Honda Jazz (a.k.a. Honda Fit) is winning handsomely, with 97% still on the road in 2024. Also, Land Rover Defender lovers will be pleased to hear that quite a lot of 2001 Defenders are still on the road today – I am not confident in the exact percentage, owing to how messy the data is, but if you said 80%, you’d probably be in the ballpark. Yes, bits are always falling off Defenders. But as my friend who owns one maintains, you can always get a new part to bolt back on.

There is not yet enough years on the new tech-heavy ADAS-equipped vehicles (EV and ICE) to say anything about their longevity. Will the trend towards increasing survival rates continue? Let’s hope so – but I honestly doubt it. If you would like to read about all the crap that new cars must have (EU mandate – thank heaven for Brexit – oh, wait, never mind) you can do so here.

Quoting the EU:

All new motor vehicles, including cars, vans, trucks, and buses now need to integrate intelligent speed assistance solutions, cameras, or sensors for reversing detection, attention warnings in case of driver drowsiness, as well as emergency stop signals. In addition, cars and vans should now be equipped with lane keeping and automated braking systems and event data recorders.

Which? Asks, “Is technology ruining new cars?” (The answer is, yes, probably.)

Don’t worry about the cost, guys – it’s going to save 25,000 lives by 2038, unless we’re all dead by then, our civilisation having collapsed under the weight of Net Zero. (Note to bureaucrats: people do not just spontaneously drive like an idiot one day and kill someone on that day. They have a history of driving badly, day after day and week after week, and have been lucky up until that point. It would be simpler to get the dangerous drivers off the road, before they kill someone, rather than wait until they get unlucky, and then getting them off the road.)

ASTERISK: In case you are wondering whether the scrappage scheme affected the longevity of vehicles back in the time of the first iteration of the polycrisis (“Polycrisis 1: Sub-Prime”), the answer is no, as cars had to be 10 years old in 2009 to pick up the grand voucher to spend on a small proportion of a new car.

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18 Comments

  1. Interesting. Disappointing (since I own two of them) to see VWs drop out of the top 10 when it comes to surviving for 23 years -v- 10 years. FWIW the older of my two is 10.5 years old, has just sailed through its MOT, and is going in for its 120,000 miles service later this month. I’m quietly confident it will make 23 years. I would be much less confident about a new car, certainly an EV. Maybe that’s just me being a curmudgeonly old cynic, but I do think the more complicated you make things, the more there is to go wrong (irredeemably).

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Skoda should be higher in all these leagues- gone are the Skoda skip on wheels days, they run and run, hold their value, equipment is top notch and they are not a Ford.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Hello all

    I feel qualified to interject on this subject having been in the motor repair trade for 50 years 25 with my own garage and MOT staion.(Now thankfully retired from it) My business started to suffer from the scrappge schemes as being in a relatively wealthy part of Kent everyone took advantage of them and went out and bought korean cars with long warranties.

    I would agree with JIT that by a country mile Honda and Toyota if not for street cred have been the most reliable of my experience.

    I would disagree some of the other stats in that although the early pre facelift Bmw Minis where quite good the next generation where terrible IMO. The Germans used to built fine cars but in the time scale given here they have all with the possible exception of MB been increasing poorly made with multiple electrical and emmisions issues and even Mercedes built some rubbish during their Tie up with Chrysler.

    I accept that modern cars are in general more reliable per se than what I grew up with in the 70’s and 80’s but the introduction of ever more complex electric and emmision systems has rendered many uneconomic to repair.

    In my own life I have long put up with JLR products, some being brilliant supercharged Range rover being the best and one (of several)discovery 3’s being the most unreliable car I have ever owned.

    JLR is of course another company that has lost its way, the later products are lucky to get out of the warranty period (have a look at the problems they have with the latest ingenium engines)without major issues costing eywatering ammounts to rectify.

    I am down to my last Rover 25 (for pottering around). Which having used them as courtesy cars have been great cars (Honda based of course) I also must metion my 40 year old Diahatsu four trac which while relegated to forest duties and being very rusty is along with the series 3 land rover and origional defender are still my go to when the going gets tough.

    Finally I must mention the best car of all, the origional Volvo V70 family. I have had four (all silver) all have been faultless. I had several customers over the years who regularly exceeded 200,000 miles and in one case 300,000.

    sorry about the ramble!

    best wishes all

    P.S. Change your oil and filter every 5000miles!

    LL.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. Jit; Thanks for this – interesting stuff! Would it be possible to put up the full list, at least for the 2011-2024 group? That would show what happened to the middle-rankers: Merc; Vauxhall; Saab come to mind.

    I rather suspect that Honda’s performance is flattered by relatively low mileages and that Toyota would be way out in front if the criterium was something like “average mileage when scrapped”.

    Mark; from reading forums, I get the impression that EV powertrains are extremely reliable. That’s to be expected as there are very few moving parts and electric motors are very long-lived. They do suffer from the same problems with ancilliaries as ICE cars, of course.

    In my view the category which is most likely to be problematic is plug-in hybrids. They have all the complexities of ICE and EV combined. The use patterns are challenging too in that, for many users, the ICE components are only used sporadically and for short durations. However the batteries are thrashed – going through a full charge cycle daily in many cases which is much more frequent than the majority of full EVs. Also it is little-known that they typically rely on the traction battery to start the motor, via an integrated starter-generator. They are a relatively new phenomenon so time will tell.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. If I was buy a car, I think I would want to know which makes would out last the finance repayments.

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  7. Here is a longer list, sorted by proportion surviving 2011-2024. The items in yellow were not included previously as they have <10,000 starting populations; this shows everything with >1,000.

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  8. lordelate, thank you for the experience from the coal face as it were. Here is a list of cars “generic models” with more than 10,000 produced in 2001, ranked by the proportion that survived until 2014. The V70 performs well – the 25 not so well. I like to watch Geoff Buys Cars and his old Volvos, and have a soft spot for them.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. The wife drove a Peugeot RCZ for about 8yrs until multiple problems began to arise, costing many £100+ repairs.

    We traded it for a Honda Jazz, which makes sense as we live on the Isle of Man & do few miles per wk. Happy with it as a runaround, but she misses the “sporty feeling” & the “granny car” label the Jazz gets (she’s a young 65).

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  10. After grumbling about the performance of my wife’s Kia niro self charging hybrid on our trips to Spain we ( I ) decided we would take my Nissan 2.0 diesel, 2012, 66k miles. What a difference, I quite enjoyed sailing up the mountains in the Cantal / Auvergne at 120km/h. Probably take a little extra to pass it’s next MOT but we can squeeze in another trip before then.

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  11. I think that we can look forward to a lot more aging cars on the road in future. The increasingly expensive bells and whistles on new cars of all types, failure of which lead to early scrappage, will make it increasingly viable to spend money on older vehicles which can be repaired. Plenty of work for old style mechanics if the breed doesn’t become extinct.

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  13. peterml62 – well that’s certainly my plan. I have no desire to own an EV, so I intend to keep my two diesels going for as long as I need them.

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  14. “‘Carspreading’ is on the rise – and not everyone is happy about it”

    BBC link.

    There are too many SUVs, and even hatchbacks are getting larger. Yes, and they’re also getting safer*. Places such as Paris that are penalising large vehicles are presumably forcing drivers to own more than one car – one for long runs, and another for driving in to the city.

    Larger cars are safer, since in a collision, the lighter vehicle acts as a brake for the heavier. The higher driving position is a reason for the popularity of SUVs, as the BBC notes (although most of the smaller ones are hardly elevated at all). However, they worry that cyclists and pedestrians are at risk from high bonnets. Well, not if you don’t crash into them.

    *Maybe they have peaked.

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  15. While I am no fan of monster SUVs, I have changed my views wrt the typical “family” ones that have become so popular. The arrival of grandchildren sparked this change. Trying to fit car seats – and then their occupants – into a conventional car is a major hassle. SUVs offer easier access and, usually, more interior space. Add to that finding boot space for all the paraphernalia that has to be carted around…..

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  16. MikeH, exactly, ours can carry surfboards, wind breaks, fishing rods and all the required luggage for granny and grandpa with 2 grandchildren. Took them to Normandy 2 summers ago so don’t forget all the duty free on the way back ! We also have managed to carry 1/2 ton of wood for the wood burner, try that KIA.

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  17. Might I add something that is missed. Take a look at the bottom end of the list from JIT at https://cliscep.com/2025/12/01/car-what-car/#comment-163891 of models produced in 2001 that survived until 2014. Many are a certain size of car. The Passat, Avensis, Primera, Laguna, Mondeo, Vectra etc are all larger family cars. Small hatchbacks from the same companies are usually found much higher up the list. There are two reasons for this IMO. First, the larger cars on average do much higher mileages than the smaller ones. Second, older cars are for those on a budget. Smaller cars tend to be cheaper to insure, fuel and maintain. A larger car will tend to become uneconomic to maintain earlier.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Kevin, I think that’s right. We tend to forget how punishing Vehicle Excise Duty has become – it certainly makes a large addition to costs when cars are on their final or penultimate owners.

    There is perhaps an intermediate stage – there certainly was in times past – where expensive vehicles lose resale value, and are then bought by people who cannot afford to maintain them, thus precipitating a more rapid decline than necessary.

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