Those who are today ignorant of natural history are not condemned to say stupid things tomorrow. They are able to avoid the risk of doing so by taking the trouble to educate themselves, just a bit. But why would they, when the only disapprobation for their effluvium comes from people who can be safely ignored, i.e. climate denialists?

A few days ago came the news that a mosquito had been found on Iceland for the first time. This factoid rather predictably instantly mutated into a story that we have heard before, in fact one that makes the internet a terribly dull place because of its ubiquity: “See! Something bad has happened, and it’s all your fault, scum who live in relative luxury in Western democracies!”

Naturally, the mosquito in question, or rather the team of three that abseiled into someone’s garden near Reykjavik (all right, they flew in), could only have come there because of the “climate crisis.” It was quite obvious that no mosquitoes had ever colonised a new place before the “climate crisis” got its start, and it was equally clear that Iceland was far too cold until last week for the happy little biters to thrive there. Or perhaps it didn’t matter. If blaming the “climate crisis” for this episode garnered a few clicks, then the reality was really neither here nor there.

The story as related by the BBC, and reported here by Mark:

Well, if there is any hesitance in drawing a line between climate change and the mosquitoes, I can’t see it there. The essentials of the story, in bullets:

• Some guy in Iceland, roping for moths, caught three mosquitoes
• He sent them to an entomologist, who identified them as Culiseta annulata
• Iceland is cold and has no stagnant water so has been protected against mosquitoes hitherto
• BUT this year multiple warm records were broken in Iceland
• The changes are global, and affecting sensitive systems
• The situation will have to be monitored to see if the mosquitoes are established
• The guy who found them speculated that they might have come from shipping at the nearby port.

I think that last part was probably the only sensible moment. Up until that point, the chain of reasoning was childlike. But it wasn’t just the BBC. Oh no. It was all over the place, not that I read any of the stories. Well, I opened this one, which looks like it was written by an AU (an Artificial Unintelligence):

Here are a couple of others.

I know what you’re thinking: in a minute, Jit is going to explain just why this is so dumb.

Well, all right then.

There’s something of a clue in one of those headlines. The middle one. “The last fortress has fallen.” Iceland is the last fortress? It’s not the coldest place, surely? [Let us not count Antarctica.] Anyone would think that there must be mosquitoes in colder places than Iceland, at least if the “last fortress” portentous lingo has the remotest basis in fact? Greenland, for example. It’s pretty cold, isn’t it? The pesky blighters must have already jumped there, thanks to the “climate crisis”?

I am going to quote now from a 19^th century account of an encounter with Greenlandish mosquitoes.

This morning, too, we were visited by a still less welcome guest. I awoke to find myself scratching my face vigorously and to see the whole tent full of mosquitoes. We had begun by taking great pleasure in the company of these creatures on the occasion of our first landing on the Greenland coast, but this day cured us completely of any predilections in that way, and if there is a morning of my life on which I look back with unmitigated horror, it is the morning which I now record. I have not ceased to wonder indeed that we retained our reason. As soon as I woke I put on my clothes with all speed and rushed out into the open air to escape my tormentors. But this was but transferring myself from the frying pan to the fire. Whole clouds of these bloodthirsty demons swooped upon my face and hands, the latter being at once covered with what might well have passed for rough woollen gloves.

But breakfast was our greatest trial, for when one cannot get a scrap of food into one’s mouth except it be wrapped in a mantle of mosquitoes, things are come to a pretty pass indeed. We fled to the highest point of rock which was to hand, where a bitter wind was blowing and where we hoped to be allowed to eat our breakfast in peace, and enjoy the only pleasure of the life we led. We ran from one rock to another, hung our handkerchiefs before our faces, pulled down our caps over our necks and ears, struck out and beat the air like lunatics, and in short fought a most desperate encounter against these overwhelming odds, but all in vain. Wherever we stood, wherever we walked or ran, we carried with us, as the sun his planets, each our own little world of satellites, until at last in despair we gave ourselves over to the tormentors, and falling prostrate where we stood suffered our martyrdom unresistingly while we devoured food and mosquitoes with all possible despatch.

You may take five points (points, not pints) if you know or can surmise the author of that passage.

Now, the species in question on the east coast of Greenland was not C. annulata. That I grant. But it was a ferocious biter, now known as Aedes nigripes (it has had a few other names before settling on its presently-preferred one). This beast is found as far north on land as it is possible to go, more or less. For example, Corbet & Downe (1966) found it at 81º49’ on Ellesmere Island, in swarms. It is a species of mosquito that is well adapted to life in the Arctic. It has a single generation per year. The eggs hatch when ponds melt. The larvae develop in the short summer, and the adults emerge, feed on blood if they can find it or nectar if not, then lay eggs. It is in the very cold-hardy egg stage that they survive the winter. And the eggs will not hatch unless they have been through a very cold spell. Some mosquito eggs hatch in 24 hours, but as you might imagine, hatching out in August in Greenland would not be an optimal strategy. So they are adapted to wait until spring to hatch. Their blood meal comes from whatever warm-blooded animal is available, and on Greenland and Ellesmere Island that includes musk oxen, as well as other mammals and birds.

It’s a mosquito that is well adapted to Greenland, and it would be well adapted to the climate of Iceland, if it arrived there now. Iceland is famously home to only one native mammal, the Arctic fox. There are no herds of musk oxen there. So perhaps A. nigripes has been to Iceland, but failed to thrive owing to a lack of blood meals (although note as implied above that this species is autogenic, that is, it can produce (some) eggs without a blood meal). The distance between the two countries is relatively small – fortunately for the Icelanders, mosquitoes are terrible fliers.

Unfortunately, less specialised types often find their resting places or larval development places transported around the globe by humans – such as was discovered last week with the sudden appearance of C. annulata in Iceland. In 420 ppm CO₂, but no human civilisation, there is not a chance that this mosquito could have made the trip from mainland Europe.

The presence of three individuals probably indicates local breeding. But there is a world of difference between breeding for a generation in Iceland’s summer (record-breaking or otherwise) and surviving its winter. C. annulata does not have a cold-hardy egg stage. It is more or less a continuous breeder. Now, as well as occurring in climes that are warm all year round, it does occur in parts of Europe that get pretty cold in winter. Here, it overwinters as adults in damp places including caves, where the temperature is cold, but not freezing, and is also fairly stable. On Iceland, it could only survive in caves or in artificial places that are neither too hot (homes) or too cold (industrial units). Such places probably exist. So I would not say unequivocally that there is zero chance that C. annulata will become a resident on Iceland.

So, to summarise:

• Iceland has been warm enough for mosquitoes (albeit a different species) for thousands of years
• The new record has arisen because the mosquito was transferred to Iceland via shipping
• The species recorded is not adapted to Arctic conditions, but there is a chance it will persist.
• If the Greenland mosquito ever gets established on Iceland, the locals will wish that it hadn’t.

/message ends

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Quiz answer: Fridtjof Nansen, “The First Crossing of Greenland.” Of course, he actually wrote it in Norwegian. What I quoted was translated to English by Hubert Gepp.

Reference: Corbet, P. S., & Downe, A. E. R. (1966). Natural hosts of mosquitoes in northern Ellesmere Island. Arctic, 153-161.