Paul Homewood has recently produced an article for the Daily Sceptic website, with the title “EV Sales Still Way Below Target as U.K. Car Industry Careers Towards Oblivion”. It’s well worth a read, but for now I content myself with a brief summary of some of its main points. The data just released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that although registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to rise in the UK, they were (at 19.6% of the market) well below the government mandate of 22% for the year. Some might argue that the signs are encouraging, given that the shortfall is relatively modest, but the reality is distorted by massive numbers of BEV registrations in December 2024 (a 56% increase on December 2023) as car makers scrabbled to pre-register vehicles in order to get closer to the target. The problem, of course, is that such behaviour simply makes the higher target (28%) in 2025 harder to achieve. They are simply kicking the can down the road. Note well, the SMMT data relates to registrations, not new car sales. And just as pre-registration of BEVs soared in December, so registration of new petrol and diesel cars fell rapidly (by 20.9% and 27.4% respectively) in the same month, as manufacturers further attempted to shift the proportion of vehicles registered during the year.
Paul tells us that major manufacturers (Ford, Nissan, Toyota, Vauxhall) saw major declines in vehicle registrations in the UK last year. Meanwhile, pure BEV manufacturers (basically Chinese companies, plus Tesla) with 100% BEV sales in the UK, have surplus ZEV allowances that they can sell to manufacturers who are falling short of their ZEV targets. With each vehicle on the wrong side of the target resulting in a fine of £15,000, surplus ZEVs may be worth up to £15,000 each to Tesla and the Chinese companies. As Paul Homewood points out, that’s a possible net profit (for doing nothing other than sell to defaulting car manufacturers the ZEV allowances effectively gifted to them by the UK government) to the Chinese of up to £204 million, and to Tesla of £600 million. What are the other car manufacturers to do? Pay massive fines to the UK government, or pay a bit less to their direct competitors to buy surplus ZEV allowances, thereby funding the very companies who are – with UK government help – driving them out of business? Neither is a particularly palatable option. As Paul concludes:
If you wanted to destroy the U.K. car industry, while enriching Chinese and U.S. manufacturers, I cannot think of a better way to do it.
And so, when an email popped up alerting me to yet another conference organised by the Westminster Energy, Environment and Transport Forum (WEET) to be held on 24th February 2025 and titled “Next steps for zero emission vehicles in England, Scotland and Wales” I rather hoped some part of the conference might be devoted to asking whether the government’s policy in this area is misconceived or unwise, given the economic damage resulting from it. Perhaps there might be a section titled something like “Should the mandated march to EVs be paused or reviewed?”. Not a chance. Not when speakers have been lined up with titles like “Director, Transport Decarbonisation, Department for Transport” and the brilliantly Ruritanian “Head, EV Infrastructure, Consumer Incentives and Fleets Environment, Climate and Sustainability Directorate, Transport Scotland”. Instead, the email assures me that “This conference focuses on next steps for transitioning to zero emission vehicles in England, Scotland and Wales” and “Delegates will assess latest developments, and priorities for policy and sector stakeholders to enable the UK ZEV market to scale up.”
I should acknowledge that the email also recognises that ZEV mandate targets are likely to be missed in 2024 and 2025, so delegates will examine the future for the 2030 targets, while looking at “scope for flexibility to support manufacturing, including options for enhancing incentives for consumers and the potential reduction or delay to penalty fees. It takes place as the Government reaffirms its commitment to the 2030 ZEV mandate, alongside launch of a consultation on the ZEV transition and phase-out of petrol and diesel cars, including a pledge to provide clarity on support for manufacturers and consumers.” They will, then, look at “the potential reduction or delay to penalty fees” but the entire “vibe” suggests a belief in the wisdom of the project, with much more concern being with regard to how it can be achieved than whether it should be achieved.
The great thing about these conferences (if you are happy to be depressed by what they reveal) is that because the organisers are plugged in (pun intended) to what’s going on at Westminster, Holyrood and the myriad of supporting Quangos, reading the pre-conference spiel helps us to find out what’s going on, how much more public money is being thrown at net zero, and who it’s being thrown at. And so I learn – though I suppose I should already have known – that following the UK government’s disastrous autumn budget, £2bn is to be targeted at the automotive sector, including the ZEV manufacturing sector and supply chain; a further £120m was recently announced to support businesses in purchasing electric vans through the plug-in vehicle grant scheme; and “green” first-year allowances have been extended for a further year for qualifying costs on zero-emission cars and machinery. I discover, too, that delegates will consider next steps for scaling salary sacrifice schemes for EV company cars, alongside government-initiated incentives, in light of “manufacturers’ concerns of disproportionate burden”. Well, I sympathise greatly with the manufacturers, but my answer would be to remove the burden altogether, not to move it from the manufacturers to the taxpayer.
Other areas of discussion also unquestioningly assume the wisdom of the project:
The Government’s commitments to fund acceleration of the rollout of EV charging points will be examined, including priorities for allocations and grants, enhanced powers for local authorities, and implications for urban and rural areas, as well as the way forward for achieving equitable access to charging facilities across the UK.
Further discussion will assess how future challenges can be addressed, including increased grid demand, advancing innovation and scaling up of hydrogen fuel cell technology, and widening ZEV deployment in freight and logistics, as well as priorities for the wider policy landscape, including the role of Great British Energy, renewables, and development of decarbonisation and net zero policies.
Turning to the detail in the end-notes, I also find these three nuggets (all stemming from the autumn 2024 budget, so far as I can see):
…ensuring benefit-in-kind (BIK) tax rates for company cars will continue to favour electric cars, with plug-in hybrid vehicles aligning more closely with rates for internal combustion engine vehicles.
freezing the vehicle excise duty first-year rate until 2029-30 for zero-carbon vehicles, while hybrids and internal combustion engine vehicles will see increases
extension of ‘green’ first-year allowances for qualifying expenditure on zero-emission cars, plants and machinery for charging points.
It seems, then, that the current UK government is determined to press on rapidly with the net zero project, and that (black hole or no black hole) the money will be found to push it through (and a big stick will be wielded against those motorists perverse enough to resist the project by buying a new ICE vehicle).
The effect of all this seems quite simply to be to destroy UK car manufacturing. Another announcement from the SMMT on 20th December 2024 could hardly be more downbeat (despite its claim that “UK automotive manufacturing is well placed to take advantage of this shift as recent investment announcements in EV and battery production testify”). From this we learn that regardless of the situation relating to new vehicle registrations in the UK(which grew by 2.6% between 2023 and 2024, but by only 0.4% to the end of November, the whole-year figure being distorted by the December rush, as we saw above), the rate of manufacturing decline within the UK seems to be precipitous. UK car production fell by more than 30% in November 2024. Output for both domestic and export markets fell sharply, down 56.7% and 21.3% respectively in the month. Taking the eleven months to the end of November, UK car output fell by 12.9% to 734,562 units, 108,787 fewer than the same period in 2023 and almost half a million short of 2019 volumes. Over the same period production of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric cars fell by 19.7% compared to the same period in 2023. The SMMT optimistically claims that this is “due primarily to model switchovers taking place at major plants” and they might be right, but what if consumers don’t want the EVs they hope to turn out in 2025, having completed their model switchovers? Private buyers don’t seem to be interested, with most EV sales being to leasing companies and for use as company cars.
The worry for car workers must be that the public will choose to keep their old internal combustion energy vehicles running for longer, and spurn the purchase of new cars, whether EVs or otherwise. After all, a well-maintained diesel can run for hundreds of thousands of miles, and cars no longer rust in the way they used to. Thanks to the zealotry of those in charge, the UK in years to come may well resemble Cuba, with 30 and 40 year old cars on the streets and the car plants standing idle. It’s a sobering thought.
Climate Scepticism 
Simple- all UK based manufacturers to shut down ALL production on an agreed date- say June 1st 2025. Close the factories, cancell all supply contracts and throw at least 2,000,000 workers onto the unemployment register.
Then advise the Government that unless they scrap the targets for BEV’s and the fines that ultimately benefit China & Tesla, the factories stay shut. Just for once, stand up to these Eco Zealots with their ridiculous “the Earths on fire”, CO2 will kill when anyone with any intelligence knows CO2 is a natural plant food that when taken in allows oxygen to be returned (for those thicko Eco Zealots, humans need oxygen other wise they die, all vegetation need CO2 otherwise they die).
Hit the Eco Zealots hard and see who blinks first.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“The worry for car workers must be that the public will choose to keep their old internal combustion energy vehicles running for longer, and spurn the purchase of new cars, whether EVs or otherwise. “
That is the exact position I am in. My wife and I run two cars, a city runaround and a motorway cruiser. Both would have been changed 3 years ago just prior to my retirement. Money was not the issue, the whole uncertainty of what is actually going to happen is the problem. We have decided to hang fire for now and buy nothing.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Ray Sanders – snap! Well, almost. My wife and I now run two cars, having acquired a second in 2023, specifically to ensure that we had a new diesel car that would last us well into the era when in all probability we won’t be allowed to buy a new diesel. Normally we would have traded the old one in as part of the purchase, but we decided to hang on to it, and we use it as a runabout, while we keep the new one for longer journeys. The old one has over 110,000 miles on the clock, and we thought about trading it in this year for another new diesel, while we still can, but not knowing what the tax situation is going to look like for diesels in the future, we have decided to do nothing. That’s one new car sale that’s been lost in this household and by the sound of it another in yours. I suspect that’s a story replicated in households up and down the country.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Add me to the list that Ray and Mark have started,
My 15 y/o Aygo (60/70mpg and £1.75 per month road tax) does the bulk of my driving, my other half uses a 22 y/o (20,000 mile)Micra that I was given as it needed a clutch and the chap couldn’t be bothered to fix it to get to her school each day although the road tax on that is an outrageous £20 a month.
That allows me to keep my large (ahem) SUV that I purchased (when I had money) at half price when 18 months old made in the midlands in 2005 safely sorned and tucked away in a barn for the few occasions each year it is needed and as it has a super charged petrol V8 I like to think I am doing my bit to stave off the impending ice age.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Here’s another, sitting on a 5-year-old hybrid, with no intention of chopping it in for anything.
Heck, it’s also costing the government £thousands in lost VAT (from new-car purchases); a fact that I admit is quite heartening.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I bought a Honda Jazz self charging Hybrid last year thinking it would be a half way house (only used for short journeys).
But from your post – “freezing the vehicle excise duty first-year rate until 2029-30 for zero-carbon vehicles, while hybrids and internal combustion engine vehicles will see increases“
Sounds like I may have been better sticking with ICE.
LikeLike
We visited our local VW dealer late last year. Having decided not to proceed with a new car purchase at this stage (for reasons discussed above) we are now being bombarded with emails and texts inviting us, inter alia, to VIP treatment at a display of vehicles at a local posh hotel. They seem desperate to sell us an EV (for obvious reasons) even though when we visited them we made it clear that we don’t want an EV and our limited interest extended only as far as diesel models.
I feel sorry for them. Thanks to the government, their business is in danger of collapse.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It certainly sounds as if they are short of buyers. Maybe you should attend anyway with your Cliscep reporter’s hat on! Although the staff will probably not be entirely straight up about how hard things are – you don’t make a sale by admitting that no-one else is buying.
LikeLike
My Daughter works in accounts for a large dealer group that represents numerous major brands. Its not pretty out there.
LikeLike
“America is free from the electric car nightmare. In Europe, it’s just beginning
Donald Trump is quashing Biden era rules that distorted the market and damaged industry. In Britain and the EU, the EV push is accelerating”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/01/20/america-is-now-free-from-the-electric-car-nightmare-in-euro/
…While America frees itself from a rushed transition to electric vehicles that has proved poorly planned, and badly executed, London and Brussels will continue to tie themselves to a technology that is far from fool-proof.
In the UK, targets are in place that force the auto companies to sell a growing proportion of EVs, or else face huge fines, and there will be a complete ban on the sale of petrol cars and vans within just a few years, regardless of whether the electric rivals work or not. The EU has very similar rules in place. The result? Cars will be more expensive for consumers, vans pricier for companies, and the auto firms will be forced to change their model line up, at vast expense, regardless of global demand.
This has the makings of an industrial tragedy. Autos were one of the few industries where Europe had a clear lead. After all, no one ever lusted after a Chrysler or a Chevrolet, or even a Cadillac or a Lincoln, in the same way they did over a Mercedes, a BMW or a Land Rover, or, at least until recently, a Jaguar. The European companies were bigger, and often better, and the US accounted for 20 per cent of their exports.
Tied down by quotas, and forced to make cars that people don’t really want, at prices they can’t afford without government help, they are already struggling, with the likes of Volkswagen closing factories for the first time in its history.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
“UK charging firm warns over changes to electric car sales amid ‘difficult’ market
Pod Point reports weak demand for new cars as government says no firms will pay fines over ZEV mandate”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/20/charging-firm-electric-car-sales-uk-ev-target-zev-mandate
A charging company has said proposed UK changes to electric car sales rules could increase uncertainty over demand, as it said that it had been caught out by lower numbers of purchases by British drivers.
Pod Point, which is majority-owned by EDF Energy, said weak demand for new cars meant it made revenues of £53m in 2024 from its sales of chargers and services, compared with a £60m target. The London-listed company’s share price slumped by more than a third on Monday morning.
The car industry has been warning of tough market conditions for more than a year, with slower sales across the market hitting electric cars particularly hard, because they still tend to be more expensive upfront (although not in the long run) than petrol equivalents….
…For charger companies, the prospect of even lower electric car sales would be a blow. Melanie Lane, the Pod Point chief executive, said there was “a difficult market backdrop” in the EV industry, with a “weaker-than-expected private EV market” that hit its sales of home chargers.
Pod Point said the difficult times would continue in 2025, and that it was unlikely to meet market sales expectations. The consultation over changes to the ZEV mandate “could further increase near-term uncertainty for the sector”, it said....
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Trump revokes Biden order that had set 50% electric vehicles target for 2030
President tells crowd that US ‘will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity’”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/20/trump-executive-order-electric-vehicles
Donald Trump took aim at federal support for the sale of electric vehicles (EVs) on Monday, amid a flurry of promised executive orders on his first day back in the White House.
“The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity,” Trump said during a ceremony at Capitol One Arena, where he signed a raft of executive orders before a roaring crowd.
One of those orders revokes 78 Biden-era actions, including a 2021 executive order aimed at making half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 electric....
LikeLiked by 1 person
“UK car production falls to lowest level since 1954
Number made fell to 780,000, the lowest for seven decades barring the pandemic, as carmakers battle weak demand and EV transition”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/30/uk-car-production-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1954
British car production fell in 2024 to its lowest level in seven decades – barring the coronavirus pandemic – as the industry struggles with weak demand and prepares to shift away from fossil fuels to electric vehicles.
The number of cars made in the UK fell to 780,000 during the year, the lowest since 1954, except for during the pandemic when first factories were forced to close and then supply chain problems caused shortages of computer chips, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a lobby group.
Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said the decline last year was down partly to factories pausing while they switched to electric production. However, he added that the industry is still struggling with weak global demand, and slower-than-expected growth in electric car sales….
…Nissan retained its position as the largest car manufacturer in the UK, although production at its Sunderland factory fell by 13%.…
…The industry is also hoping for the UK government to relax rules, known as the zero-emission vehicle mandate, that force carmakers to sell an increasing number of electric cars every year.…
LikeLike
“UK new car sales fall again”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/feb/05/uk-new-car-sales-fall-again-yuan-slips-us-china-trade-tensions-uk-economy-business-live-news
New car registrations in the UK dropped in January, preliminary industry data showed on Wednesday, due to slower demand from both fleet and private buyers.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that overall registrations fell to approximately 137,000 units in January, with over a fifth of those being electric vehicles, aligning with the industry’s continued commitment to the shift towards EVs.
That means a small year-on-year drop in car sales – in January 2024, 142,876 new cars were registered.
They try to cheer themselves up by hoping that a “big increase in electric car enquiries made on our platform late last year” will translate into sales. Of course, it’s all about reducing profits and desperately trying to incentivise buyers of EVs sufficiently to persuade them actually to buy enough EVs to hit the government’s required percentage:
There’ll be no let-up in pressure to maintain electric vehicle demand and hit the 28% target, likely resulting in offers to entice buyers over the coming months.
LikeLike
“Luton Vauxhall plant will close in April”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyjk8j4vwko
The owner of Vauxhall has told staff it will close its van-making factory in Luton in April.
Stellantis announced it would shut the site, which has been making vehicles since 1905, in November as it planned to move its electric van production to its other UK plant in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire….
...Stellantis, which also owns Citroen, Peugeot and Fiat, previously said rules imposed to speed up the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the UK had partly driven its decision.
Current rules state that EVs must make up 22% of a manufacturer’s car sales this year, and 10% of van sales....
LikeLike
I understand the anger, and I sympathise greatly, but they should direct their anger at the real villains of the piece:
“‘We’ve been let down big-time by Vauxhall closure'”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crr0p080104o
LikeLiked by 1 person
It isn’t just the UK:
“Germany’s once-mighty car industry is in crisis. What will it take to fix it?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz6pzwj6qq7o
…The Wolfsburg factory is capable of building 870,000 cars a year. But by 2023 it was making just 490,000, according to the Cologne-based German Economic Institute. And in Germany it is far from alone. Car factories across the country have been operating well below their maximum capacity. The number of cars produced in Germany declined from 5.65m in 2017 to 4.1m in 2023, according to the International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.
Car-making makes up about a fifth of the country’s manufacturing output, and if the supply chain is taken into account, it generates around 6% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The industry employs some 780,000 people directly – and supports millions of other jobs.
It’s not just production that is down. Sales of cars made by German brands are far lower than they were just a few years ago. Between 2017 and 2023, those of VW fell from 10.7m to 9.2m, while over the same period BMW’s went from 2.46m to 2.25m and Mercedes-Benz’s went from 2.3m to 2.04m, company reports show.
All of the Big Three saw their pre-tax profits fall by about a third in the first nine months of 2024, and each warned that their earnings for the year as a whole would be lower than previously forecast.
The development of electric cars has sucked up huge investment, but the market for them hasn’t grown as quickly as expected, while foreign competitors are flexing their muscles…..
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Mercedes to cut costs by 10% as profits dip amid a plunge in EV sales. ‘We are taking steps to make the company leaner, faster and stronger’ says CEO”
https://fortune.com/europe/2025/02/20/mercedes-cut-costs-profits-dip-plunge-ev-sales/
Mercedes-Benz said Thursday it planned hefty cost cuts after its 2024 profits plunged by almost a third amid a slump in China and weak electric car sales, as Germany’s auto sector reels.
The German auto giant’s net profit fell 28 percent from the previous year to 10.4 billion euros ($10.8 billion), while revenues also slid about four percent to 145.6 billion euros.
The group announced plans to slash production costs by a tenth by 2027 and also gave a bleak outlook for this year, saying it expected lower sales and leaner profit margins.
“To ensure the company’s future competitiveness in an increasingly uncertain world, we are taking steps to make the company leaner, faster and stronger,” CEO Ola Kallenius said in a statement.
It was the latest bad news from one of the country’s car titans, which are reeling from a stuttering shift to electric vehicles, fierce competition in China from local rivals and weakening demand elsewhere.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
“‘Blunt’ electric car targets put thousands of jobs at risk, warn unions
Consultation on net zero mandate ends this week amid industry calls to water it down”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/19/blunt-ev-targets-put-thousands-jobs-risk-warn-unions/
Union chiefs have warned that thousands of jobs are at risk if the Government refuses to water down “blunt” electric car targets.
Unite the Union, Labour’s biggest union backer, has hit out at “punitive” rules requiring carmakers to sell an increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs), claiming they will threaten jobs and place “downward pressure on pay and conditions”.
Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said Britain’s so-called zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate would not alone bring about the changes needed to phase out petrol and diesel cars.
Instead, she said the Government had to encourage demand by reducing VAT on UK-made EV sales for private drivers, while also increasing investment in charging infrastructure….
I have a better idea – scrap the EV mandate, and allow car manufacturers to supply the cars that drivers actually want.
LikeLiked by 2 people
According to Autocar, BMW is delaying the transfer of EV Mini manufacturing from China to Oxford, due this year. There is no word on when it may happen. They have also held back from taking a govt grant to support the transfer. The portents are not good.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks MikeH,
The MSM have caught up now:
“BMW pauses £600m upgrade to Oxford Mini plant as electric car demand falls
German carmaker will review plans for site which had been forecast to secure 4,000 jobs in EV production”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/22/bmw-pauses-600m-upgrade-oxford-mini-plant-electric-vehicle-demand
BMW Group has paused a £600m investment into a Mini car assembly plant on the outskirts of Oxford, amid a declining demand for electric vehiclesIn 2023, the German carmaker, which has owned Mini since 2000, announced the investment to upgrade its Cowley plant for electric production of the Mini. It was supported by government-backed investment, and was forecast to secure 4,000 jobs in electric vehicle production.
BMW will now review the plans to manufacture battery-powered Minis at its Cowley site. “Given the multiple uncertainties facing the automotive industry, the BMW Group is currently reviewing the timing for reintroducing battery-electric Mini production in Oxford,” the company confirmed in a statement.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Aston Martin delays first battery electric vehicle again and plans job cuts
Sportscar maker says priority is plug-in hybrids, while cutting costs will reduce global workforce by 5%”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/26/aston-martin-delays-first-battery-electric-vehicle-again-and-plans-job-cuts
The British sportscar maker Aston Martin has further delayed its first battery electric vehicle, as it announced plans to cut 170 jobs – 5% of its global workforce – in the latest step in its quest for profits.
The FTSE 250 manufacturer on Wednesday said its priority was plug-in hybrid cars, which combine a small battery with a petrol engine. The first electric model will only come in “the latter part of this decade”...
…Carmakers around the world have slowed down efforts to switch to EVs. While sales of electric cars have increased strongly in most large markets, manufacturers had expected faster growth.
Stellantis, the world’s fifth-largest carmaker by sales, said on Wednesday that it would give customers “freedom to choose” between internal combustion engine, electric, and hybrid technologies….
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Nissan cancels night shift on one production line”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jpg2zn0p7o
Car manufacturer Nissan has cancelled a production shift at its UK factory as part of efforts to improve efficiency.
The Sunderland plant has cancelled its Line 1 late shift and will instead focus its resources on Line 2, where the new Nissan Leaf will be built.
A spokesperson for the company said no jobs would be lost because of the changes.
Trade union Unite said it was working to “mitigate any potential pay reductions” for staff who might be affected by the change in shift patterns.
While no jobs are being lost, Nissan said some staff would be moving from Line 1 to Line 2.
“Nissan is implementing immediate measures to turn around its performance and create a leaner, more resilient business capable of swiftly adapting to changes in the market,” a spokesperson said….
LikeLike
I hope Aston Martin know what they’re doing. My instant reaction is that no-one who wants a new Aston will want a plug-in hybrid!
LikeLike
Jit – I agree, if you are going down the hybrid route, the best option self charging.
which will make all those charging points in the UK a waste of money & time (if they appear).
LikeLike
LikeLike
“BMW’s Oxford retreat signals deep trouble for UK carmaking”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bmws-oxford-retreat-signals-deep-trouble-for-uk-carmaking/
Among British car factories, Nissan at Sunderland is the most productive and Jaguar Land Rover at Solihull probably the most advanced. As for industrial landmarks, the former British Leyland complex at Longbridge is reduced to a research and development facility for Chinese-owned MG; but ‘Plant Oxford’ at Cowley, the original home of Morris Motors now owned by BMW of Germany, still produces 1,000 Minis per day. And BMW’s decision to halt a £600 million project to build electric Minis there is, I fear, a moment of destiny for the whole UK auto industry.
The truth is that the transition to electric cars has descended into chaos. Total UK car production in 2024 was at its lowest (in non-pandemic conditions) since 1954. EVs are too expensive; charging infrastructure is too patchy; manufacturers plead that the current ‘zero-emission vehicle mandate’ (ZEV: 80 per cent of new cars must be electric by 2030, all by 2035) is too tight – though Ed Miliband would like it tighter.
Results are awaited from an industry consultation on how to make the ZEV more workable. But one thing’s for sure: ministerial diktat won’t shift consumer choices; non-urban motorists don’t want to drive electric. And British carmaking, for all its engineering prowess, is wholly dependent on investment decisions from Germany, France, India, Japan and the US, whose domestic markets face the same negative trends and advancing low-cost Chinese competition. BMW’s reversal of Plant Oxford’s fortunes is a signal of much deeper trouble ahead….
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sad times indeed
Having worked in and around cars since 1976 I still think its a national disgrace that Rover ( which by then was making good products of which I still have three) was allowed to fail in 2005 given the level of support that other countries gave their own motor industries at the time.
LikeLike
Mark: I hope this prediction of closure – and others – will prove premature. Aiui, BMW has announced a delay in bringing electric Mini production back to Oxford – they have not cancelled it. Of course it may turn into cancellation but we have to wait and see. This could be PR work to soften the blow.
Sadly there are other bits of worrying news. Nissan has reduced shifts and is in trouble globally, especially now that the attempted merger with Honda has failed. Jaguar has imploded and looks in imminent danger of complete closure. Vauxhall, as part of Stellantis, is vulnerable to that group’s over capacity and underwhelming model range. Grim times.
LikeLike
“British carmakers’ switch to electric has descended into chaos
Carmakers are slowing down production because of green mandates – risking jobs and billions of pounds”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/02/ev-rules-pushing-britain-economic-disaster/
Behind a paywall, unfortunately.
LikeLike
“EU gives carmakers ‘breathing space’ on green targets as EV sales slump
Environmental groups say two-year grace period allowed by Ursula von der Leyen ‘rewards laggard’ manufacturers”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/03/eu-gives-carmakers-breathing-space-on-green-targets-as-ev-sales-slump
European carmakers are to be given two extra years to meet this year’s pollution target, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has said, in a further rollback of her green deal climate policies.
Companies who sell too many dirty vehicles this year will be allowed to compensate by selling more clean vehicles in the two years that follow, under a proposal that would stretch the window of compliance for the 2025 fleet emissions target to 2027.
Von der Leyen said the change would grant the industry more “breathing space” but overall targets would not change.
Environmental groups said the proposal rewarded companies that had failed to invest in meeting the targets and warned it would slow the transition to cleaner cars, particularly cheap ones....
Environmental groups aren’t interested in reality, it seems.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – had to google “laggard” to make sure I understood it’s meaning – 1 quote stuck out –
“Significant environmental gains look to be achievable simply by moving environmental laggards toward the policy approaches of those at the top of the performance ladder.
From the Cambridge English Corpus“
Nuff said.
LikeLike
“Car industry urges UK government to create new EV incentives
Automotive body says current policy is leading to job losses and has become a ‘driver of de-industrialisation’”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/13/car-industry-urges-uk-government-to-create-new-ev-incentives
Fresh incentives to boost a flatlining electric car market are urgently needed, according to the UK automotive industry, whose leaders called on the government to act fast and “revisit the mandate” for zero emission vehicles (ZEV).
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said its research showed growth in consumer demand for EVs was lower than expected, with only one in eight new buyers planning to switch in the next three years, putting jobs at risk.
The UK mandate requires manufacturers to ensure 28% of new cars sold this year are zero emission or face a £15,000 penalty for every vehicle.
The SMMT’s chief executive, Mike Hawes, said: “The consequences of this regulatory framework and an inability to meet it, [means] you’re beginning to see [it] play out in terms of flattening of sales, production down, plants closed or consolidated, jobs lost. This should be a driver of growth, not a driver of de-industrialisation.”…
…The industry incurred costs of £4.5bn last year in discounting electric vehicles to customers to meet the sales targets, the SMMT said. Grants for early adopters have long ended and EV owners will be liable for vehicle excise duty including levies on premium cars from April....
...Hawes said SMMT research showed that the market for new EVs was largely reliant on drivers who had already gone electric, with only 12% of new buyers polled actively intending to switch from petrol or diesel by 2028.
Speaking at an industry conference in London, carmakers said they were committed to electrification but the targets were now “challenging”.
Lisa Brankin, Ford’s managing director in Britain and Ireland, said: “The trajectory and sentiment has very much changed.”
Ford cut 800 UK jobs in November amid slowing growth in demand.…
Instead of “fresh incentives” to try to persuade people to buy EVs they don’t want, I have an alternative idea. I suggest scrapping the EV mandate, allowing the market to function, and leaving manufacturers to make a product that people do want to buy.
LikeLiked by 3 people
“Audi Slashing 7,500 Jobs, Appears To Abandon EV-Only Push
Audi sales fell 11.8% last year and the company wants to stop the bleeding”
https://www.carscoops.com/2025/03/audi-cutting-7500-jobs-in-germany-and-appears-to-abandon-ev-only-push/
…Audi also appears to have abandoned plans to go electric-only. This is a major change as, less than a year ago, they were adamant “we will transform our product portfolio and switch completely to electric vehicles. Our customers will experience the last major world premieres of new model lines with conventional drive systems in the course of 2026.” While the automaker didn’t exactly admit defeat, they acknowledged the continued development of ICE-powered vehicles.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLike
“‘Volatile market’ blamed for Lotus Cars job losses”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd9ll97n1zqo
Sports car manufacturer Lotus has announced job losses “amid volatile and evolving market conditions including the US tariffs”.
The business, which has its headquarters and manufacturing facility at Hethel, near Wymondham, Norfolk, said up to 270 jobs were to go across Lotus Cars in the UK.
A spokesperson said it would look to share resources and collaborate with its largest shareholder and technology partner, Geely Holding Group.
It remained “committed to the UK” but “the proposed restructuring is vital to enhance our competitiveness in today’s market”, a spokesperson said.
The latest reorganisation follows the loss of 94 jobs in November and job cuts to its two Norfolk factories the previous January….
…When asked if the UK government’s exemption on the zero emission vehicle mandate, announced on Sunday partly in response to the tariffs, had come too late, a Lotus spokesperson would not comment.…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mark – from that BBC link. When you scroll to the end “More on this story” links –
6 July 2021 – Lotus launches the Emira as its ‘last hurrah’ conventional petrol sports car – BBC News
20 July 2023 – Lotus set to cut up to 200 jobs after heavy losses – BBC News
5 January 2024 – Lotus Cars reveals Norfolk factory job cuts in move to electric – BBC News
Can’t be bothered to read them all, so will give some partial quotes from the 2021 article.
“In 2017, the business was taken over by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and Malaysia’s Etika Automotive, with Geely holding a controlling stake. Geely said an investment programme, worth more than £2bn, would see production in the UK tripled, as well as expansion abroad.”
“Natalie Sauber, market intelligence lead at engineering consultants Arcadis, said Lotus “going straight to electric is fantastic news”. She said: “Electric powertrains [the set of components that generate power] are so much better suited to sports cars, and it could also mean a major boost in its customer base.”
Ms Sauber said the car maker producing its last petrol car was a “huge opportunity to refocus and reinvent” as an electric vehicle manufacturer. But she warned that due to changes in EU rules, there needed to be a “local” source of batteries, from so-called gigafactories, for exports to Europe.
“That means that car manufacturers such as Lotus need to invest in the UK in order to continue to enable its UK cars to be exported to the EU,” she added.”
LikeLike
dfhunter,
Thanks for the digging. A couple of points leap out from the news about Lotus and British Steel.
First, it doesn’t seem to be a wise move to allow the Chinese to gain control of important British companies.
Second, the electrification of everything appears to be destroying industries and jobs, not boosting them.
I wonder why our politicians can’t see it. Both Tories and Labour have proved very anxious to cosy up to China and to encourage Chinese “investment” in the UK. Both (until very recently in the case of Badenoch’s apparent conversion) have been very happy to send the UK hurtling towards net zero. Surely the damage is, by now, obvious?
LikeLike
“Lotus’s UK factory threatened with closure by Chinese owner”
Of course, the end point is Chinese EVs with a tenuous connection to Lotus (the badge) and a dead factory in Norfolk.
Telegraph link.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Net zero fines ‘may force Vauxhall to shut factories’”
So much so obvious. The choice is to stop selling cars with engines, or pay massive fines.
Telegraph link.
The piece also notes that Ellesmere Port is being adapted to build electric vans.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“One in 10 cars sold in UK made in China”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyxld2ner0o
One in 10 cars sold in the UK in June were made in China, according to the latest industry figures.
New Chinese brands such as BYD, Jaecoo and Omoda are growing rapidly in the UK.
There has been a particular surge over the past few months, at a time when most other G7 countries have levied significant extra tariffs against their imports.
Around 18,944 cars made by Chinese-owned brands, including MG and Polestar, were sold in June, which is 10% of overall UK sales, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). That is up from 6% in the same month a year ago.
Across the first half of this year, more than 8% – or 1 in 12 – cars sold were Chinese, up from 5% in 2023 and 2024. This was mainly but not exclusively electric vehicles….
LikeLiked by 1 person
“The UK car industry is at a crunch point – can it be saved?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23p028p200o
Astonishing “in-depth analysis” by the BBC. It concluded that the reason UK car manufacturing is on its knees is because of a number of factors – Brexit, high wages, tariffs, high energy costs. No analysis of why energy costs are high, no discussion of the government policy fining manufacturers for building and selling ICE cars that purchasers want and for failing to manufacture and sell EVs that people don’t want, in sufficient volumes. Little analysis of the issue with the transition to EVs, with a suggestion that it’s an opportunity rather than a threat. Some analysis of the China problem. A poor and biased effort, as we have come to expect from the BBC.
LikeLiked by 3 people
I just read the article and came to similar conclusions! He might also have mentioned that new vehicle prices, particularly for entry-level cars, have been rocketing over the last decade. And that the fleet is getting older – people still want cars, but can’t afford new ones.
LikeLike
That’s all right, then:
“MP says team will help Lotus workers find new jobs”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr74d3yyv50o
An MP has said his team will work “full blast” to find every person made redundant by Lotus a new job.
On Thursday, the sports car manufacturer said it would cut 550 jobs from its UK headquarters at Hethel near Wymondham in Norfolk….
…Prof David Bailey, an economics and business academic at the University of Birmingham, said he was “really scared” about the plant’s future.
“It does raise a big question about the future of Hethel and whether this is death by a thousand cuts given we have seen job losses earlier this year or if it really puts Hethel production on a sustainable basis,” he said.
He said the company would have been impacted by President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, the Covid-19 pandemic, Brexit and the slow take-up of electric vehicles….[my emphasis]
No doubt all of those factors are relevant, but it would be helpful to have an idea of the relative impact of each, in order to try to avoid policies that make things worse.
LikeLike
The new owner wants the name Lotus, and it wants to build Lotuses in China, not in some pokey factory in Norfolk. I have the feeling Geely will use any pretext to get rid of the Hethel site. [Although it might be kept as a testing and consultancy base.]
LikeLike
Geely also own Polestar which has a development and testing facility in the Midlands somewhere. There’s speculation that the two operations may be consolidated into the facilities at Hethel.
LikeLike
Mike H,
I’m glad to see that you can comment again. WordPress problem solved?
LikeLike
Mark,
Thanks. That was a pleasant surprise.
I didn’t do anything as I had absolutely no idea what was the cause of the problem. Hopefully it won’t reoccur.
LikeLike