In Seek and Ye Shall Find I discussed the Guardian’s opening article (about fire risk) in a series discussing “the myths and realities surrounding EVs” (with comments below the article over time, as the Guardian published further pieces discussing other supposed myths relating to EVs). Now it seems they are going to do it all over again, this time with respect to heat pumps. Today the first article appeared in a new series “exploring the myths and realities surrounding heat pumps”. It kicks off with an analysis of the question “Are heat pumps more expensive to run than gas boilers?”. You know where it’s coming from straight away, with the caption to the picture illustrating the article saying “Some households are confused about the potential benefits of heat pumps”. Then they call in aid Dr Jan Rosenow to discuss the costs. To some extent this is fair enough, as he has lots of expertise relating to this subject. On the other hand, he is an unabashed heat pump enthusiast, so he is perhaps not the best person to go to for an “independent” fact-check in this regard. My reservations are heightened by the fact that the Guardian enthusiastically tells its readers that “[i]n a recent paper for Carbon Brief, he explained that heat pumps have similar running costs to a gas boiler, even though electricity is more expensive than gas, because they produce heat at a more efficient rate.” It’s the reference to Carbon Brief that bothers me, given their claim that offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas (it isn’t, and in any meaningful sense, wasn’t when they made the claim). Thus I fear that anything that appears at Carbon Brief has to serve the agenda, and I wonder as to its objectivity.
Still, that’s a preliminary quibble, and possibly an unfair one so far as Dr Rosenow is concerned. Let’s see what the Guardian has to say. In setting the scene, it tells us that “[t]here are those who believe heat pumps could play a vital role in climate action, and sceptics who claim their benefits are a lot of hot air.” Also, that in terms of replacing gas boilers, “[f]or most European homes, the answer is likely to be an electric air source heat pump, as governments try to clean up carbon emissions. But not all households are convinced.” So far, so reasonable, though I regret that the next sentence invokes the culture wars that often seem to exist only in the minds of Guardian journalists – “the plans to replace millions of gas boilers across the country with the little-known devices has fed into culture wars.”
Having said that, I find myself pleasantly surprised by the realistic and reasonably objective nature of the article. Having set the scene, it gets down to business with a very fair opening paragraph dealing with the central claim:
It is true that heat pumps are expensive. In the UK, the majority of homes are expected to opt for an air source heat pump, which costs on average just more than £12,500 to buy and install, according to industry accreditors at MCS. This is four to five times the cost of a gas boiler, which usually falls between £1,600 and £3,000 depending on the size needed.
There then follows a discussion of subsidies – in Poland households are paid up to €14,420 (£12,403) to fit green energy solutions, including heat pumps. In Italy a short-lived scheme effectively allowed households to make money out of installing a heat pump, by paying them 110% of the cost. And as we know, in the UK the government has upped the offer of subsidies to households installing a heat pump: it now stands at £7,500. Of course, the sharp-eyed will see that still leaves the average household well out of pocket with regard to installation costs of a (subsidised) heat pump compared to the (unsubsidised) cost of installing a gas boiler. Then we are told:
However, the gulf in upfront costs is narrowing all the time, with some heat pump installations getting close to cost parity with gas boilers once grants are included.
The problem I have with such a claim is that the bottom line is that heat pumps are still more expensive to install, even after the subsidy is taken into account. Secondly, the £7,500 subsidy is a lot of money, and at the end of the day it’s a real cost, since we all pay taxes, so we are effectively simply subsidising ourselves. If all households were to install an air source heat pump (they won’t, because they aren’t suitable for all houses and apartments), then we would be looking at a cost of (around 27 million households multiplied by an average cost of £12,500 =) £337.5 billion. I think that’s a pretty big elephant in the room, and an extraordinary cost to ask the country to bear.
It’s going to be worth seeing how the series develops. I will deal with later articles in the series by offering comments below this article in due course. They will, we are told, cover issues such as possible expensive upgrades to accommodate heat pumps, which may involve “eye-watering costs to upgrade their radiators or improve their home insulation to ensure their heat pump is effective.”
However, the Guardian’s opening article looks at the ongoing running costs of a heat pump, once installed, versus a gas boiler. Acknowledging that in the UK electricity currently costs around four times as much as gas, the claim is that running costs work out roughly the same for both, because heat pumps use about three to five times less energy compared with a gas boiler”. The technical term for this is “seasonal co-efficient of performance” (ScoP).
I find myself pleasantly surprised by the analysis (and should, in fairness, withdraw my reservations about Dr Rosenow). We are told:
A recent study of 750 households by the Energy Systems Catapult, an independent government-backed researcher, found that heat pumps typically have a SCoP of 2.9. This implies a small extra cost to running a heat pump compared with a gas boiler.
That seems a fair conclusion, given that we are also told:
Rosenow’s analysis has shown that a heat pump with a SCoP of more than 3 will match the running costs of an 85% efficient gas boiler, while a SCoP of 3.2 will match the costs of a 90% efficient A-rated gas boiler.
Then we are told that new tariffs from Octopus Energy, specifically aimed at heat pump users, could render them even cheaper to run than gas boilers. That may be true, but it bothers me that it means that non-heat pump users must be subsidising heat pump users. What happens if and when we have all been forced to install heat pumps? Presumably the tariff will be withdrawn, since there won’t be anyone left to subsidise that tariff by paying the higher tariff.
Next we are advised as to the caveats, and again the presentation is pretty fair:
Each country will be different. The economics of a heat pump compared with a gas boiler rely on the government grants used to lower the upfront cost of installation, and the fluctuating costs of electricity and gas.
Within each country the benefits of a heat pump hinge on its installation. A poorly installed heat pump would fall short of the average SCoP of 2.9 identified in field studies as a key point at which heat pumps reach parity with gas boilers, and this could quickly erode any expected savings – even when using a good value energy tariff.
Then we are told that the other side of that coin is that some installers have reported ScoPs of 4, implying that the heat pumps in question would be cheaper to run than gas boilers.
The article concludes with the verdict, which I found to be exceptionally interesting. That is because it acknowledges that savings can be achieved compared to gas boilers only if they run at good efficiency and because of the grants available. Sadly, at this point, the net zero agenda takes over. Dr Rosenow says:
“In the future, governments need to rebalance the taxes and levies on electricity to make heat pumps the lowest-cost heating option.”
And the Guardian reports:
The UK government is already considering options to lower electricity costs by moving the green levies usually paid through power bills into general taxation or on to gas bills. This would make the savings from choosing a heat pump even greater.
That’s as may be, but since we all pay general taxation, we all end up paying for it. And once all the gas boiler uses tire of being a mulct cow, and install their own heat pumps, that source of subsidy will cease. The only truly objective assessment would compare like with like, without relying on specific tariffs subsidised by other energy users, without relying on subsidies paid for out of general taxation, and without expecting gas boiler users to pay “green levies” to make the cost of heat pumps comparable.
The coda to all this is disappointing. The Guardian falls back on a survey, by the innovation charity Nesta, which heard the views of more than 2,500 domestic heat pump owners and more than 1,000 domestic gas boiler owners in England, Scotland and Wales over the last winter, from which it claims that two-thirds (67%) of households with a heat pump said they were satisfied with their running costs compared with 59% of gas boiler owners – even without extensive energy efficiency upgrades. Unfortunately for the Guardian I de-bunked those claims here. It’s always important to fact-check the fact-checkers.
Climate Scepticism 
Thanks Mark, great post
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Mark; good post – surprising to see the Graun being relatively objective! However, are we comparing apples with apples? Heat pumps perform very poorly if required to heat domestic hot water. If that load is passed off onto a new tank and immersion heater, that’s a big economic hit, both on installation and running costs.
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Thanks Mike ,
I was hoping for informed comments. As I said, the article is surprisingly fair for the Guardian, but it’s inevitably driven by agenda, so complete objectivity was always unlikely. It will be interesting to see how they play it in the later articles in the series.
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Another excellent analysis. Just shows, it always pays to take a peak behind the veil before coming to any firm conclusions. As Steve McIntyre is keen on saying: always try to keep track of which thimble conceals the pea.
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Forgetting that a condensing gas boiler runs at 90%+ efficiency, whereas a heat pump running on electricity less than 30% overall is generated by ‘unreliables’ that is generated by CCGT generators running at no more than 50% efficiency…
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When my gas boiler (for an outdoor pool) went phut a couple of years ago, I bought a heat pump (air sourced) as a replacement, at about twice the cost of an equivalent gas boiler. This is an almost ideal use case because (a) it only runs during summer, when the higher air temperatures maximise its performance gain (SCoP in the article); and (b) the low output temperature ( a bit more than 30°C) isn’t a problem.
I’ve found that, while it consumes about ¼ the number of kWh of the old gas boiler, it costs the same to run, because electrical power is about 4x the cost of gas (per kWh). It’s a bit noisy (you can hear it running), but then I live in a very quiet country village – I don’t think it would be noticeable in a city.
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We are told of the likely need to “ improve their home insulation to ensure their heat pump is effective.“
This is a common refrain but a dead giveaway. If you are going to need to improve insulation to get a heat pump to work properly then it is obvious that a heat pump can’t be very effective to begin with.
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As MikeH notes, there is a big difference between central heating alone and central heating plus hot water. Not only will we need to restore the hot water storage tanks we had ripped out in the 90s – we will also be relying on resistive heating to elevate the water to a safe (and pleasant) temperature. As soon as you need to use resistive heating, you end up at the mercy of fluctuating leccy costs via your smart meter.
Gas does not have pinch points, and if we were allowed to go looking for it, it would see us warm for the rest of the century. In the meantime, by all means mandate the most draconian insulation standards in new homes, and have them fitted with heat pumps by default. We don’t have to buy one.
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Many thanks for the insightful comments. I should have realised that a Guardian “myth-buster” article that was full and frank was too good to be true!
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There are several holes in Rosenow’s & the Graun’s analyses.
1. Low powered, slow response heat pumps must run for many hours longer than a swift-response boiler. Often, 24/7 in the coldest weather. All the time a heat pump is running *when its heat is not wanted* (e.g. whilst occupants are asleep or out at work), its energy is wasted because the building loses heat 24/7.
2. Most modern boilers are a ‘Combi’ – i.e. not only do they meet the space-heating need, they also supply virtually endless Domestic Hot Water (DHW). HP installations need a separate, expensive & bulky hot-water storage cylinder.
Because a low-powered HP is ‘stretched’ to meet space heating needs in cold weather, DHW cylinders are often fitted with a (supplementary) resistance immersion heater. They operate at a SCoP of 1.
The main image in this BBC article clearly shows 3x immersion heater bosses in the upper cylinder.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64710225#:~:text=The%20government's%20flagship%20green%20heating,a%20low%2Dcarbon%20heat%20pump.
3. HP running costs are based upon annual SCoP and (annual) *average* electricity prices.
However, HPs operate *most* of the time in winter when the weather is coldest so at their lowest CoP AND when electricity prices are highest, and, for the *longest* period.
HP advocates such as Rosenow choose to ignore inconvenient facts that damage their agenda.
The BBC’s ECU was forced to eventually admit:
[Note the disingenuous ‘Resolved’ – BBC ECU speak for “We were wrong, initially refused to admit we were wrong (which would have resulted in an ‘Upheld’ verdict), rapidly made a correction, so now save ourselves the embarrassment of admitting our error in our ‘Complaints Upheld’ reports to Ofcom.]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/contact/ecu/six-things-the-uk-could-do-to-tackle-climate-change-bbc-news-website
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It’s called choice architecture, Mark. The nudger’s weapon of choice. The architects design it all, but they don’t have to worry about building costs.
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Observrr letters about the Guardian heat pump “myth buster” article. Two plug air to air systems, while two make the points made by commenters here:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/19/a-lot-of-hot-air-the-pros-and-cons-of-heat-pumps
Your myth-busting article examining the relative cost of heat pumps versus gas boilers rightly mentions the expense and disruption of insulation and larger radiators necessary for some heat pump installations to work properly. What is seldom discussed is the cost and disruption of installing the cylinder needed to store water heated by a heat pump.
With a heat pump, the hot water is typically stored at a lower temperature to enhance efficiency, and the consequence is that a larger store is needed. For modern, moderately sized houses with a gas combination boiler (hence no existing hot water cylinder), this can make a heat pump installation practically impossible. What is needed is a hybrid: the heat pump supplies space-heating via radiators and hot water is supplied on demand by an electric “boiler” akin to a gas combination boiler.
Also:
No wonder the uptake of heat pumps in the UK is so low. Planning permission is sometimes required. With the necessary noise impact study, that alone can cost £2,000. A quote for a small three-bedroom converted flat in central London for replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump and underfloor heating, without the cost of a new floor? £74,000.
I wonder how other countries manage to install heat pumps. Are installers in other countries really that much more efficient? Or might there be other reasons, such as price gouging when businesses see a central London postcode?
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Bit late with this comment, but after rereading the comment by Joe Public with his “The main image in this BBC article” link – will try to include the pic
Makes you wonder how many UK households would/can fit that “Heath Robinson” heating system inside the existing space they have. maybe wrong, but from the pic it looks like 2 external heat pumps are used/required ?
No need to show a gas combi boiler setup for comparison as most in the UK already have them installed.
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Here’s the next one from the Guardian:
“Do heat pumps work at freezing temperatures?”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/22/do-heat-pumps-work-at-freezing-temperatures
…Heat pumps need to work harder in cold temperatures but they still perform well whatever the weather, according to the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC), an independent research and technology organisation set up by the UK government.…
Which is an interesting admission, because it reinforces the points made by some commenters on my piece above, namely that quoting an average rate of efficiency over a year is a false way of looking at it. Central heating is most required in winter when it’s cold. That’s when heat pumps are at their least efficient, and when electricity prices are at their highest. This pulls the rug from under the feet of those claiming that the cost of running them is broadly comparable with the cost of running a gas boiler. Regrettably (but not surprisingly) the Guardian fails to join the dots. Indeed, they double down on the false logic:
...In the first mythbuster feature of this series we learned that the measure used to rate the efficiency of a heat pump over a year is known as the seasonal coefficient of performance (SCoP), which is typically 2.9 for an air-source heat pump.
The ESC study found that the median coefficient of performance (CoP) fell to 2.44 on the coldest days of the year. This means that a heat pump would need to work harder to achieve the same indoor temperature when it is cold – but the difference would be marginal, and is already included in the SCoP averaged over the year including wintry months.
The findings are backed up by a separate study undertaken by the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) which analysed 550 homes across Europe. It found that even at temperatures of -20C a heat pump’s efficiency would fall to an average CoP of 2.…
Them, under caveats, they wake up to the truth:
…Assuming you have a properly installed heat pump which is able to heat your home through freezing temperatures, one caveat to note is that your running costs for this period are likely to be higher as the efficiency of the heat pump falls.…
And there’s another caveat:
...Sometimes heat pumps do need backup. In many Nordic countries it is common for heat pumps to have some kind of fossil fuel reinforcement for when temperatures plunge to -20C or below. But there are ways to reduce reliance on gas or oil heating even at these temperatures. Ground-source heat pumps, for example, can be more efficient than air-source heat pumps because the ground is often able to retain heat better during a cold spell. A new generation of air-source heat pump, designed for cold climates, can also help to reduce the need for backup heating.
The conclusion doesn’t exactly help to sell the idea to me, either:
…The science shows that heat pumps can work at winter temperatures. But poor advice and installation can upend even the most encouraging scientific findings.
Richard Halsey, a director at the ESC, said: “One of the key findings from our study is that proper design and installation is at the heart of delivering a heat pump that works for the home that it’s in.
“For most homes – regardless of property type or age – a well-installed heat pump producing a flow temperature of about 40C should still result in a comfortable home most of the time. But there’s no one-size-fits-all setup for a heat pump.”
For a “myth-buster” article enthusing about heat pumps, that’s hardly a ringing endorsement.
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Mark; as so often, that article deceives by omission, as you clearly suspect so I apologise if I’m preaching to the choir!
Firstly, aiui, those performance figures do not include heating domestic hot water to normal/safe temperatures. That is usually done by immersion heaters, adding to the power consumption (and raising space issues, per your comment on the previous article).
Secondly, the cold weather performance focusses on temperature. However humidity is also a major issue as cool/cold conditions with high humidity – typical for the UK – will lead to the external coils frosting up which requires resistive heating to clear.
A fair, objective article would find some performance curves for a range of typical UK conditions to give a true picture.
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“Heat pumps ‘too expensive for ordinary families’
Wealthy households most likely to apply for grants to install green tech, MPs say”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/26/heat-pumps-too-expensive-ordinary-families/#:~:text=An%20average%20heat%20pump%20costs,to%20come%20down%20much%20quicker.%E2%80%9D
Heat pumps are too expensive for ordinary families to install and run, the Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has been warned by MPs.
The Government must urgently make low-carbon heating systems cheaper if it wants to reach its goal of net zero emissions by 2050, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).
And how does the Government do that, save by raising taxes to subsidise them?
…The PAC report said: “The cost of buying and running heat pumps is a substantial barrier to take-up for most households, at a time when incomes are already stretched.”
An average heat pump costs £11,600, four times more than a gas boiler.
The Government aims to reduce heat pump installation costs by 25pc by 2025, but so far they have only fallen by 6pc since 2021.
The PAC report said: “Costs need to come down much quicker.“
Heat pumps are also more expensive to run than traditional boilers because they use electricity, which costs more than gas, the report said.
The costs are so high that government grants are likely only being used by rich people.…”
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The Daily Sceptic has picked up on the story now:
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/27/heat-pumps-too-expensive-for-ordinary-families/
The concluding sentence says it all:
The costs are so high that Government grants are likely only being used by rich people.
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Mark – from your Guardian link above we this get partial quote – “
The verdict – “We can finally put to bed the notion that heat pumps do not work in cold weather conditions and that they are inefficient to run. We’ve observed the exact opposite,” said Marc Brown, a business leader at ESC.”
So I wondered who “Energy Systems Catapult (ESC), an independent research and technology organisation set up by the UK government” are & what independent advice they offer.
website – Homepage – Energy Systems Catapult
Net Zero is everywhere in the links given, from the “about us” page – “Accelerating Net Zero energy innovation”
The What We Do | Energy Systems Catapult web page has this “Tackling the hardest challenges on the way to Net Zero”
ps – not sure they can claim “set up by the UK government” but Innovate UK – UKRI seems to be the funding source for this outfit.
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dfhunter,
You do well to investigate the murky world of Energy Systems Catapult, and all the rest of it. The dividing line between government organisations and organisations smiled on or partly funded by the government, is often difficult to discern. As is the dividing line between “independent” expert organisations and those which simply have an agenda of pushing net zero. The one thing that is clear is that those who benefit from pushing net zero are legion, and there is a huge amount of money to be had out of it all.
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40C flow temperature is pathetic. Firstly, it will mean that yo have to swap out all your old radiators for much larger aluminium radiators at huge cost and considerable disruption. 40C is not hot enough for a bath or shower so you will require an additional immersion at extra cost and extra space and disruption. All this, in order to ‘save the planet’ when an inexpensive compact combi gas boiler using cheap, readily available, clean burning gas, was the former optimal solution to home heating and domestic hot water on tap.
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Here’s the latest from the Guardian’s “de-bunking” series about heat pumps:
“Can heat pumps be installed in older properties?
Critics claim the technology is best suited to newbuilds – but studies reveal success with retrofits and in poorly insulated homes”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/31/can-heat-pumps-be-installed-in-older-properties
The claim that they seek to debunk:
A report commissioned in 2021 by the Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA), a trade body that represents gas boiler manufacturers, in partnership with four gas network companies, said heat pumps would be impractical for up to 54% of British households who were using gas to heat their homes.
The report analysed 22.7m properties and claimed that for between 8m to 12m there would be “limiting factors” with replacing gas boilers with heat pumps. Homes might be poorly insulated or built with solid brick walls, which would be difficult to insulate. The report also included homes with limited space for heat pumps, such as high-rise flats and mid-terrace houses.
Critics of heat pumps argue that a quick blast of fossil fuels can deliver a surge of heat for even a leaky house, whereas heat pump, which rely on a constant flow of gentle warmth to build to the desired temperature, struggle in homes that do not have good insulation.
Various reports are cited, but there is a paucity of real data quoted, and I found this rather amusing:
The ESC is expected to report back on how well the heat pumps have performed under real-world conditions after the 4 July general election.
How convenient.
In fairness, the Guardian also cites the caveats, and they are very significant indeed:
For older buildings energy efficiency upgrades – such as loft and wall insulation, or replacement of old radiators with larger models and underfloor heating – may need to play a role in mitigating the challenges of installing a heat pump.
Flats or terrace homes with limited outdoor space may need to consider wall-mounted or rooftop options. For all housing types there will need to be space inside for a hot water tank, often where the old boiler used to be.
The extent to which costly home upgrades can make or break the success of a heat pump installation is complex.
The studies that support installing heat pumps in all housing types come with caveats too. The ESC noted that it was not able to install as many heat pumps as it hoped in properties built before 1945 because of the “greater challenge” in designing successful systems for older homes. Still, it managed to install 163 heat pumps in pre-1945 properties, “clearly showing that such challenges are manageable”, it said.
Finally, the caveat at the heart of applying heat pump research to any individual experience is the quality of the installation work. A heat pump system that has been incorrectly installed, perhaps with the wrong size heat pump, will always fall far short of even the most rigorous scientific field studies.
I would say that those caveats are so substantial that they pretty effectively undermine the attempted debunking of the claims. The verdict is pretty luke-warm, I would suggest.
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The Guardian’s “Myth-buster” series on heat pumps is still going:
“Will I need to spend a lot insulating my home to get a heat pump?
Many people fear the UK’s draughty old properties are too great a challenge for the technology”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/13/insulating-home-get-a-heat-pump-uk
The claim they seek to debunk:
The devices rely on a constant flow of gentle warmth to build up to the desired temperature, which the unconvinced argue is harder to achieve in a draughty home.
Mike Foster, the chief executive of the Energy Utilities Alliance, a trade body that represents gas boiler manufacturers, told the Telegraph that the state of Britain’s housing stock meant heat pumps were unsuitable for up to 54% of homes currently using gas boilers without the eye-watering cost of retrofits.
For “the science” they looked to a lot of pro-heat pump sources for information – Energy SYstems Catapult, Heat Geek, Nesta. Having been supplied with the answers it was looking for, the Guardian still has to admit to caveats:
Home insulation upgrades are unlikely to be as expensive as heat pump sceptics suggest – but that doesn’t mean that the price of relatively low-cost improvements to radiators and a new water tank don’t still add up.
For the 750 homes in the ESC study which installed a heat pump, the total cost was about £14,800 – including the pump, any home upgrades and installation costs. The government’s £7,500 grant towards this work helps, but for many households this upfront cost would pose a financial challenge.
There are also a number of home improvement costs that may be non-negotiable for a heat pump to work effectively: larger radiators, a hot water tank and updated pipework. Not all homes require a radiator upgrade but in the ESC study, 93% of homes had theirs replaced as part of the heat pump installation. It also found that 81% had a hot water tank fitted.
The need to upgrade old pipework is far less likely. A minority of homes built in the late 1980s and early 1990s were fitted with “microbore” pipes with a diameter of under 15mm. These were compatible with gas boilers and cheaper and quicker to install than a full-sized pipe system.
If you are unlucky enough to have these in your home they will need replacing, because heat pumps run at a flow temperature of about 40C, compared with a gas system’s 50-60C . Therefore they require larger pipes to allow for greater volumes of water to transmit heat around the home.
Sounds like quite a few caveats to me.
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And now this:
“UK’s drive to install heat pumps stymied by ‘lack of demand and skill shortage’
Almost a third of installers surveyed say finding skilled fitters is a barrier for customers, while 40% note lack of interest”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/24/uks-drive-to-install-heat-pumps-stymied-by-lack-of-demand-and-skill-shortage
The UK’s drive to replace gas boilers with heat pumps is being stymied by a lack of consumer demand and a shortage of skilled installers to fit heat pumps where they are wanted, according to an industry survey.
The most comprehensive poll of heat pump installers to date found that the biggest barrier was the low number of households choosing to get one fitted.
More than 40% of respondents to the survey by the innovation charity Nesta said a lack of demand was preventing the UK from reaching its heat pump targets. Meanwhile, almost a third (30%) of respondents said finding skilled staff to carry out the work was a barrier….
…Even if consumers eventually come around to the idea, hitting the heat pump target will also require a huge influx of workers. The industry will require about 37,000 installers by 2030, compared with about 3,000 today, meaning between 4,000 and 6,000 new installers will need to be trained up every year, says the Nesta report, written by training consultant Nathan Gambling and heat pump business IMS Heat Pumps….
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Mark: as you know, I believe the skills shortage – clearly very serious – will soon impact Miliband’s ‘clean’ leccie by 2030 ambitions. It may even prove to be John C’s off-ramp.
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If there is a shortage of skills, then lack of demand cannot be the limiting factor.
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“Will my heat pump be a noise nuisance to my neighbours?
Newer models are quieter than older ones, and barking dogs are a far bigger cause of complaints”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/09/will-my-heat-pump-be-a-noise-nuisance-to-my-neighbours
I love the second sentence in the headline – “barking dogs are a far bigger cause of complaints“. It’s the sort of mentality that says because more birds are killed by cats than by wind turbines we should ignore the bird deaths caused by wind turbines, which are somehow judged thereby to be a non-issue.
It’s worth a read, though, because – in fairness – it does raise the cons as well as the pros. My criticism of it would be that regardless of the (substantial) cons, the idea behind the article was always to prove that there isn’t really a problem. And so it proves in the final paragraph of the conclusion:
While the potential noise impact of air source heat pumps should be considered, it is important to balance this with the significant environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuel heating systems. Gas boilers also make a noise.
Brilliant! Yes, they’re noisy, but so what? – we just have to put up with it to save the planet. And gas boilers “also make a noise”! Yes, almost everything makes a noise, but the noise made by gas boilers is as nought compared to the noise made by heat pumps, and the noise, such as it is, made by gas boilers, isn’t a nuisance. The final words offer a completely false comparison. As always, we need to fact-check the fact-checkers.
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Must admit my gas boilers have only been in the attached garage & when on they are not noisy.
but heat pumps are located outside, and I can guess how noisy & irritating they would be to you & anybody close by.
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The latest in the series:
“Will heat pumps cause blackouts?
In the latest in our series, we look at claims heat pumps will cause a risky surge in electricity demand”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/16/will-heat-pumps-cause-blackouts
I’m not going to quote from it at length (other than the caveats and conclusion), because it’s little more than a puff piece for electrification of the grid, with almost complete faith placed in National Grid ESO’s ability to keep the lights on. The caveats and conclusion – whilst arguably an attempt to be fair and balanced – suggest to me that keeping one’s fingers crossed and whistling to keep one’s spirits up aren’t good enough:
The caveats
The electricity grid is a dynamic and evolving situation for the system operator.
The forecasts undertaken by NESO were prepared under the UK’s previous government, which aimed to run a net zero electricity grid by 2035. Under the new Labour government this target is expected to come forward to 2030, meaning the rollout of renewables will need to be even faster than the previous target, which was itself considered ambitious by the industry. This may make it trickier to manage the influx of heat pumps by the end of the decade.
The existing targets also suggest a combination of heat pumps alongside hydrogen boilers, although hydrogen boilers are expected by experts to play a more limited role than first envisioned, meaning heat pumps could be required to play a larger role that the NESO is prepared for. The government is due to make a final decision on the role of hydrogen heating in the UK’s net zero future by 2026, but until then forecasts will include hydrogen heating.
The verdict
There is still time for energy grids to evolve before heat pumps have an impact on the UK’s electricity system. It will no doubt be trickier for the grid operators to keep the lights on than it was in the past – but there is no reason to believe that the UK will experience more blackouts in the future as a result of heat pumps if careful modelling and upgrades continue.
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The Guardian’s re-hashed this series of articles in a single one seeking to plug heat pumps:
“Are heat pumps the future or just a lot of hot air?
After 250,000 installations across the UK, we look at the devices central to Labour’s vision of a ‘home upgrade revolution’”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/28/heat-pumps-future-hot-air-labour-home-upgrade
It does its best to put a positive spin on everything, but it can’t shy away from reality all the time:
…A study of 750 households by Energy Systems Catapult, an independent government-backed researcher, found that heat pumps typically have a Scop of 2.9, meaning they would cost slightly more than a gas boiler to run….
I looked at this earlier. It’s not quite so simple as costing “slightly more”, but at least they acknowledge that they cost more than gas boilers and are more expensive on an ongoing basis. Of course, an “average” 2.9 Scop (annually) isn’t the same as a Scop of 2.9 in winter, when most energy will be required. As the Guardian acknowledges:
…The study found that heat pumps needed to work harder in cold temperatures, but they still performed well. During periods when the temperature dipped to -6C, the efficiency rating fell from an average of about 2.9 to 2.44, meaning that the running costs would rise to just above those of a gas boiler, but only for these periods….
…The science shows that heat pumps can work at winter temperatures. But poor advice and installation can upend even the most encouraging scientific findings.
…There are caveats: flats or terrace homes with limited outdoor space may need to consider wall-mounted or rooftop heat pumps. For all housing types, there will need to be space inside for a hot water tank, often where the old boiler used to be. And for older buildings, other upgrades – such as loft and wall insulation, or the replacement of old radiators with larger models and underfloor heating – may be needed...
…In short: if you live in a home where the heating keeps your rooms comfortably warm, it is very likely that you won’t need to undertake any extra insulation before installing a heat pump…[Really?].
...Concerns around noise pollution are tricky to disprove because the limited rollout means that, to date, there are few actual examples of lots of heat pumps working in close proximity to one another.
Earlier this year, one reader wrote to the Guardian complaining that a summer stay in a development where all eight properties had heat pumps was marred by the hum. “If you sat in the garden in the evening, it was an annoying, continual source of noise,” the writer said.…
…It will no doubt be trickier for the grid operators to keep the lights on than it was in the past but there is no reason to believe that we will experience more blackouts in the future as a result of heat pumps if careful modelling and upgrades continue….
Oh, that’s OK then!
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“Two ‘misleading’ heat pump adverts banned by UK watchdog
ASA says online ads from Aira and EDF Energy omitted key facts about eligibility for government grants”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/06/two-misleading-heat-pump-adverts-banned-uk-watchdog
This article links to another Guardian article in April, which I think I must have missed at the time:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/10/gas-boilers-heat-pumps-uk-grants-report
The April article contains some astonishing nonsense, but I’ll start with the one obvious truth:
Gas boiler fittings outnumbered new heat pump installations by more than 15 to one last year, and only one in eight new homes were equipped with the low-carbon alternative despite the government’s clean energy targets.…
Turning to the nonsense:
Poorer households are also being shut out of the heat pump market as the grants available are inadequate and should be increased…
We all pay for those grants, rich and poor alike, through our taxes. The reality is that poor people are being shut out of the heat pump market because heat pumps are very expensive. To buy, to install, and to run. That’s it. No further explanation or spin required.
…The UK has the slowest introduction of heat pumps in Europe: fewer than 100,000 were fitted last year, compared with 1.5m gas boilers.…
Fewer than 100,000 by quite some margin, but let’s call it 100,000 to keep spirits up, shall we? Here’s the reality:
https://mcscertified.com/2024-was-a-record-year-for-small-scale-renewables/
Heat pumps saw a significant and record-breaking rise in 2024, with almost 60,000 certified installations…
Yes, the actual figure was a good 40% lower than suggested by the Guardian, a suggestion which the Guardian repeats in its latest article:
…The Resolution Foundation thinktank said in April that “the rollout of heat pumps is slow, with fewer than 100,000 fitted into British homes in 2024”.…
Back to the April nonsense:
…Heat pumps are also more expensive to run than gas boilers, because of the distortions of the UK’s privatised electricity market. Electricity prices are made artificially higher than gas prices in the UK, by a combination of the way energy prices are set and the fact that green levies, to pay for renewable energy incentives, are put on electricity rather than gas bills.…
It’s nothing to do with the fact that the UK’s electricity market is privatised (even though, like the Guardian, I think it should be in state hands). Yes, it’s due to the fact that so-called green levies are added to electricity bills, but that’s because that’s where it’s appropriate to put them – they’re the inevitable costs of de-carbonising the electricity network. Gas prices, on the other hand, are made artificially high by adding a notional carbon cost to them. The disparity between gas and electricity prices would be even higher were it not for this blatant attempt to rig the price differential.
...That distortion [the Guardian isn’t talking about the distortion arising from adding a carbon cost to gas] means that despite being much more efficient than gas boilers, heat pumps are more expensive to run than they should be. At current energy prices, households would on average suffer a £32 bill increase by making the switch, the report found.
Shifting the levies to gas would make switching much more attractive, as it would save most households more than £300 a year….
No it wouldn’t, it would add the cost to gas-users, the vast majority of households, even though the costs have nothing to do with gas use.
Yet again, shame on you, Guardian. A more inaccurate and distorted article would be difficult to find, all in the name of propaganda.
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“Heat Pump Installations Running 90% Below Miliband’s Target”
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/08/06/heat-pump-installations-running-90-below-milibands-target/
Heat pump installations are running 90% short of Ed Miliband’s Net Zero targets, with just 30,000 fitted in six months instead of the 300,000 target. At this pace, it would take 150 years to equip all homes with ‘renewable’ technology….
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“Cool Britannia: the heat pumps keeping pace with the UK’s wild weather
Air-to-air systems can warm homes in winter and cool them in summer – and they’re now set to join the low-carbon grant scheme”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/09/cool-britannia-the-heat-pumps-keeping-pace-with-the-uks-wild-weather
Wild weather? I think it’s just weather.
…The government recently set out plans to include air-to-air heat pumps, which can act as air conditioners, in the same grant scheme that offers £7,500 to households that replace their gas boiler with “wet system” heat pumps.…
…The catch? They don’t usually provide hot water, meaning a separate low-carbon solution would be needed to replace a traditional gas boiler system entirely.…
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“Heat pumps could halve heating bills with energy system reform, study finds
Steps to make electricity cheaper, such as ending levies, could transform prospects for pumps, thinktank shows”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/heat-pumps-could-halve-heating-bills-with-energy-system-reform-study-finds
Hilarious stuff:
Heat pumps could save households hundreds of pounds a year on heating bills, if the government took simple measures to reform the energy system, an analysis has found.
The average household’s heating bills could be roughly halved, saving about £375 a year with a heat pump instead of a gas boiler, if steps were taken to make electricity cheaper.
These steps include ending green levies on electrical heating, reforming how electricity is priced, and taking measures to prevent gas power companies from jacking up their profits, according to an analysis by the thinktank E3G….
Ah yes, E3G…
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