The single bullet theory and evolution may not have all that much to do with climate, but they’re absolutely related to skepticism and offer some analogies. When I say the single bullet theory is like evolution, I mean that they are both facts that many (probably most) people don’t believe and they both require science to explain. They also both elicit strong polarizing reactions in people even today just like that other subject.

Today is the 60th anniversary of the JFK assassination. This year will also mark the 30th anniversary of the book, Case Closed: Lee Harvey Oswald and the Assassination of JFK published in 1993 on the 30th anniversary of the assassination. I read a lot of non-fiction books and this is one of the best books I’ve ever read. I first ran across it from watching its author, Gerald Posner, as a guest on Dick Cavett’s cable TV show (it’s almost surely buried in my deteriorating VHS collection somewhere). What really caught my attention was Posner showing some new state of the art computer graphics showing the single bullet going through Kennedy’s neck, then tumbling, hitting Governor Connally’s back sideways, exiting his chest, hitting his wrist and then lodging in his thigh. He also showed two cones that start from Kennedy’s neck and head that lead up to circles that almost center on the South window on the 5th floor of the Texas School Book Depository. Cavett’s reaction was: “Convinces me.”

I want to go a little bit into Gerald Posner’s career because it has a real nice parallel into the climate issue. I read Case Closed a couple of times since it was so good and became a little bit of a JFK buff. I read some other JFK books and some of Posner’s books on other subjects. He attracted a lot of attention and did a lot of interviews because of Case Closed. He was lauded by many prominent public intellectuals. IMO he single handedly crippled the JFK assassination industry. Because of this he was vilified by conspiracy theory authors and even accosted while out in public by angry conspiracy buffs. But his enemies finally got in a dig in 2010. A writer named Jack Shafer found some plagiarized passages in a book on Miami and in The Daily Beast. Posner apologized, gave his explanations and resigned a position at The Daily Beast. This does not negate a very long string of widely acclaimed books on such varied topics as political assassinations, the Holocaust, Ross Perot, 9/11, the recording industry and more. Jack Shafer is a writer known for exposing lax standards in journalism (or perhaps being a busy body, depending on your point of view). The only thing I can find of his on the JFK assassination is a long rant about how there’s so much rehashing on the 50th freak’n anniversary! The last of the four paragraphs of his short Wikipedia page is about Posner. I can’t find any books on Amazon that look like they were written by him.

For hockey stick and Climategate buffs, this should remind one of the Wegman Report. Edward Wegman was, of course, the renowned statistician who did a study that validated the work of Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick in evaluating the utterly discredited, famous hockey stick paper by Michael Mann. A computer scientist and entrepreneur named John Mashey wrote a report that made charges of plagiarism in the reference material of the Wegman report. Cliscep contributor, Tom Fuller wrote of it at WUWT:

And we’ve all read recently about Mashey’s attack on Edward Wegman, accusing him of plagiarism in a 250 page document that is straight out of the movie Conspiracy Theory, with color-coded themes and memes, and an outrageous accusation that Steve McIntyre was recruited, trained and funded by the George Marshall Institute–something I hope Mashey can back up.

These charges consist of phrases cut and pasted from Wikipedia and paraphrasing without attribution stuff listed in the bibliography. I see the charges against Posner as being along a similar line. He’s an incredibly busy writer and it’s easy to see him getting notes mixed up and forgetting attributions. One of the great things about his writing is that it is full of interesting detail and copiously supported with footnotes. He did make a blog post about these charges that can be found in the Wayback Machine. He accepts full responsibility for mistakes and attributes them to the change from the world of book writing to the fast paced world of online reporting.

I have a few things to say about the head shot, because I want to use a bit of this information in some bullet points later. A great many people think this shot was made from the front because they can clearly see Kennedy’s head move back and to the left as famously reiterated by Kevin Costner in the movie JFK. Enhancements of the Zapruder film actually show Kennedy’s head jerk forward a little before it moves back. The bullet entered the back of Kennedy’s head and exploded out the right side. X-rays and autopsy photos show this. A detailed, photorealistic drawing made from an autopsy photo shows the entrance wound on the back of Kennedy’s head. There is a flap of scalp and bone on the right side of his head hanging forward. There’s also a drawing of the entrance wound on his right upper back. Why does his head move back? Neuro-muscular reaction may have played a part, but there is also a phenomenon of physics called the jet effect. All the energy released when the head explodes out the side can cause the material that is sprayed out to have more momentum than the bullet going in. In order for total momentum to be conserved, the head has to gain momentum going backwards. Momentum is mass times velocity. Energy is one half mass times velocity squared. While momentum is proportional to velocity, kinetic energy is proportional to velocity squared. That is that it exponentially increases with the speed of the high powered rifle bullet. In the Zapruder film, the material coming out of Kennedy’s head goes mostly up, forward and to the right, all with a vector component of forward momentum plus some rightward vector component. If this total forward vector is more than that of the bullet moving forward, then to end up with the same total momentum Kennedy’s head goes .. back and to the left, back and to the left, back and to the left. .. This 10 minute YouTube video has the best succinct graphic explanation of the two shots:

Dan Rather has Gerald Posner on to explain the shots. Some interesting points brought up:

• Co-workers Harold Norman and Bonnie Ray Williams are shown in a photo in the window below Oswald seconds after the shots. They describe hearing the shots, the rifle bolt action and the cartridges hitting the floor.
• The Warren Commission thought Oswald had about five seconds after the first shot to make the other two.
• Physicist Luis Alvarez found jiggles in the film corresponding to the shots that gave him 8 seconds.
• At Alvarez’s first shot, Kennedy brings his right hand down from a wave and a girl running beside the limo stops and looks back.
• CBS tests and finds that Zapruder’s camera model will make jiggles when shots are fired.
• Assistant council to the Warren Commission, David Belin is credited with the Single Bullet theory. Kevin Costner credited and derided future Pennsylvania senator, Arlen Specter with the Single Bullet Theory. Case Closed does not give anyone credit for it.
• PBS did a wireframe analysis a few years earlier that showed if Connally was slightly turned, the single bullet path lined up.
• The Zapruder film shows that right after they pass the sign, Kennedy’s arms move up and Connally’s right lapel moves forward covering his white shirt. This marks the time of the second shot.
• The red cloud is shown forming by the front of the head in the Zapruder film.
• Cyril Wecht is included arguing against the Single Bullet Theory and for a shot from the front. Wecht is a famous pathologist who often comments on prominent cases in the media. He was a consultant to Jim Garrison and Oliver Stone. He also appears in many JFK conspiracy documentaries. He’s also debated Posner on talk shows. Posner has accused him on Crossfire of knowing about Connally’s lapel movement and suppressing it. Wecht’s motives are clearly suspect.

Before I go any further, I’ll give a brief rundown on evolution. Evolution versus creationism has long been a staple for skeptic writers like Martin Gardner, Michael Shermer and James Randi. Some scientist writers also got into the act such as Stephen Jay Gould, Richard Dawkins and Carl Sagan. Sagan declared in an episode of his Cosmos series that. “Evolution is not a theory. It is a fact.” Creationism was for the most part considered to be just another area of religious pseudoscience to be debunked. Then in 90’s a new offshoot showed up claiming that there were scientific arguments against evolution. They dubbed their new movement, Intelligent Design (ID). Reason magazine’s science correspondent, Ronald Bailey, wrote a long piece entitled, Origin of the Specious. He listed many of the new books, magazine articles and writers on the subject and evaluated the subject matter. He found no merit in it. He also questioned the motives and veracity of ID’s conservative promoters. As for the actual evidence for evolution, here’s a video of opening arguments that Bailey did in a debate at Freedom Fest on evolution vs ID:

I’ll limit my rehash to this one point. Mammals have a gene that makes vitamin C. Humans and apes have this gene, but it’s broken and broken in the same place. But for the Single Bullet Theory, I want to make a long bullet point list from Posner’s book of the overwhelming evidence:

• 88% of witnesses expressing an opinion on the number of shots thought they heard three.
• The acoustics of Dealey Plaza make it hard to locate the shots. From 178 witness statements, 44% couldn’t determine where they came from, 28% said the School Book Depository, 12% said the grassy knoll and 17% said elsewhere. Only 2% thought they came from different locations.
• Only five doctors at Parkland saw the throat wound in its original condition: Drs. Baxter, Carrico, Jenkins, Jones and Perry.
• Dr. Charles Carrico felt under Kennedy’s back looking for an exit wound and missed the small entrance wound in the back. Nobody turned him over at Parkland.
• Dr. Perry initially said it looked like an entrance wound, but couldn’t be sure. Dr. Jones called it an entrance wound, because he did not know about the back wound. Drs. Baxter and Carrico said it could be either an entrance or exit wound.
• Dr. Jenkins, who had the most experience with gunshot wounds, thought it was an exit wound, because it was larger, not as neat and did not have a black halo.
• Dr. Carrico inserted a breathing tube in Kennedy’s mouth.
• Anesthesiologist, Dr. Pepper Jenkins took up a position at Kennedy’s head obstructing the view of it from most people in the room. He said most people in the room did not know he had a head wound.
• Dr. Malcolm Perry did the tracheotomy over the throat wound, because he’d done it many times before and that’s the best way to do it.
• As Kennedy’s condition was deteriorating, Dr. Jenkins pointed out the head wound and Neurosurgeon, Dr. Kemp Clark examined it and declared it too massive.
• The body was taken to Bethesda for the autopsy. There was pressure to finish it, because Jackie and RFK insisted on remaining in the building. A thorough one would have taken longer, perhaps days.
• The autopsy doctors did not know about the neck wound. They did not know about the holes in his shirt and tie.
• They conjectured that a bullet may have entered Kennedy’s back, penetrated a couple inches and then fallen out. Later, Dr. Perry had a telephone conversation with the head autopsy doctor and cleared things up for him.
• In 1968, a panel appointed by Ramsey Clark studied the autopsy results and concluded that Kennedy was struck by two shots from behind. In 1975, the Rockefeller Commission on CIA activities confirmed these results.
• In the late 70s, the House Select Committee also confirmed these results. They had a budget that allowed them to do the latest scientific tests such as neutron activation analysis of the bullet fragments and new photo enhancement techniques.
• The House Select Committee’s forensic panel used photo enhancing techniques on the original autopsy photos and found an abrasion collar on the back wound that indicated it was an entrance wound. They could even tell the bullet was moving right to left from it.
• The House Select Committee concluded there was a forth shot based solely on a tape made by a microphone on a police motorcycle. This result was then utterly refuted and harshly criticized by sound and ballistic experts. A drummer in a rock band listened repeatedly to the recording that was published on a vinyl insert of the adult magazine, Gallery. He heard a voice that all the experts hired by the Select Committee missed that placed the motorcycle at the Trade Mart instead of Dealey Plaza.
• Eight principal doctors who attended Kennedy at Parkland all told Posner that reports of a large rear headwound were false.

While evolution vs creationism has this supposed intermediate Intelligent Design position and the climate issue has its lukewarmers, is there an intermediate position between Oswald acting alone and the conspiracy theorists with multiple gunmen? I have three examples of people who’ve studied the case, believe Oswald acted alone, but just can’t accept the Single Bullet Theory. Clint Hill is the Secret Service agent who jumped onto the back of the limo and pushed Mrs. Kennedy back into her seat. He did a 60th Anniversary interview with Gerald Posner. He read and praised Posner’s book, but they both agreed to disagree on the Single Bullet Theory.

Next is Mark Fuhrman of OJ Simpson bloody glove fame. He got caught on tape using racial epitaphs while bragging to a reporter and had to plead no contest to charges of perjury. He went on to have some success writing nonfiction books on crime. His book on the Martha Moxley murder was turned into a TV movie where he was portrayed by actor Christopher Meloni. He wrote a book on the JFK assassination entitled, A Simple Act of Murder: November 22, 1963. He pretty much agrees with the Warren Report, except for the Single Bullet Theory. He has a bizarre take where the first bullet goes through Kennedy and hits the top of the windshield.

Then there is John Ziegler (groan). He’s the journalist who I describe in my two posts on the Mann vs Steyn case. He thought Joe Paterno was getting a raw deal in the Jerry Sandusky case and did a bunch of digging, only to find out that the media got everything wrong and was forced to conclude that Sandusky was innocent. Because of this, he is the world’s most beat up journalist since Woody Harrelson’s Harry Barber in the movie, Palmetto. I’ve been following his work on this case for half a decade and think it’s the best shoe leather journalism of the new millennium. He’s a fan of Gerald Posner and has done lots of interviews with him (here’s two links). One of the reasons I decided to follow this case is because I saw that he was followed by Gerald Posner on his Twitter profile. On episode 71 of his The Death of Journalism podcast, he does a long explanation of his theory. It is embarrassingly amateuristic. While his journalistic experience and expertise in sports, the media and politics make him the perfect journalist for the Sandusky case, he is woefully out of his depth when it comes to physics and ballistics. He admits he’s not a ballistics expert, yet he makes some very specific claims. You’d think he might want to consult one of the many actual ballistics experts who’ve perused this case. He has the first shot being a misfire that only penetrates slightly into Kennedy’s back. He notes that there are descriptions of it sounding like a fire cracker. The actual first shot went through the foliage of an oak tree where it hit a branch and was deflected. From Case Closed:

• Neutron activation analysis of bullet fragments found in the limousine show they came from only two bullets. No part of the first bullet was ever found.
• The Warren Commission never studied the oak tree.
• Firearms expert Robert Kraus told Posner that bullets can be significantly deflected by tree branches and that the copper jacket can be separated from the lead core.
• Deputy sheriff Buddy Walthers saw blood on James Tague’s cheek. He said something stung him. He was standing 500 feet from Oswald’s window. They found a strike mark on a curb that was in line. Later traces of lead and antimony were found on the curb.
• Firearms expert Art Pence told Posner that the rotational energy of the bullet could tear the copper jacket off and the lead core could pretty much continue on a similar trajectory. No trace of copper was found on the curb.

Ziegler just dismisses these claims saying that there’s no evidence, but they are observations and absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. He does cherry pick claims that fit his theory. He notes that Secret Service man, Roy Kellerman (riding shotgun with driver William Greer), says he heard JFK say, “My God, I’ve been hit” after the first shot. This is uncorroborated by everyone else in the limo. He’s all excited about the new claims made by Secret Service agent Paul Landis that he found the single bullet on the back seat of the limo, put it in his pocket and then put it on Kennedy’s stretcher — and he’s just making this claim now, 60 years later! He mentioned it to Clint Hill ten years earlier. Hill does not believe him. Ziegler also presents things like the girl running beside the limo and Kennedy’s arms jerking up being a neurological reaction as if he’s the first person to notice them. He should’ve reread Posner’s chapters on the shooting and autopsy. Just about everything he brings up is much more completely covered in the book.

Every November, I always have a fun argument with Ziegler over the Single Bullet Theory. This year, he got so mad that he blocked me on Twitter. I’m still a big fan of his work on the Sandusky case and think he’s a very astute observer of presidential politics. I’ve never seen a better prognostication of the 2020 election than his. Oh well, Thomas Sowell said they will forgive you for being wrong, but not for being right.

There are a couple more things about the assassination I would like to note:

• About the first shot being said to sound like a backfire or fire cracker, I wonder if hitting a branch could’ve slowed its speed down to below the speed of sound and affected the crack as it went overhead.
• Oswald’s bullets are fully jacketed. This is so that they will easily pass through bodies without mushrooming.
• Kennedy’s arms going up in front of his throat are a neurological reaction to trauma near the C6 vertebra first described and named after William Thorburn in 1887. It’s described in a Select Committee PDF.

Finally, don’t get fooled by this new documentary about what the doctors saw. This is just the last gasp of C-list bit players.