This is intended to be a COP28 thread, with a view to comments being added as and when there’s something to add about the inevitable media obsession that is starting to build around COP28. To get the ball rolling, a couple of COP28-related items have recently caught my eye.

Priorities for UK climate policy following COP28

On 31st January 2024 the Westminster Energy & Transport Forum (WEET) will be hosting yet another seminar, this time with the above title. Given that COP28 is likely to be one of the most unsuccessful COPs to date (and, let’s face it, it’s not a high bar), the first major session, led by Chris Stark, Chief Executive Officer of the Climate Change Committee, seems more than a little optimistic: “Key takeaways from COP28 – policy priorities and legal commitments that have emerged from discussions and debates”.

There seems to be no doubt that we must continue to go full steam ahead (or should that be “full renewables ahead”?) down the net zero road, as the session after that will consider “Next steps following COP28 – monitoring UK progress in decarbonisation, priorities for further decarbonising key industries, and net zero implementation strategies moving forward”. This is to be followed by the last session before the break, on “Policy priorities for delivering a green economy and meeting net zero targets”.

Further sessions will be on “Assessing sustainable finance initiatives – private sector environmental impact, allocating and delivering funds in public and private sectors, strategies for unlocking green investment, and the role of ESG reporting”; “Practicalities for delivering a Just transition – strategic priorities for a people-centred and inclusive approach, opportunities for job creation and reskilling, economic diversification, sustainable transport, and affordable energy”; and “Next steps for meeting climate commitments – strategies for monitoring environmental impacts and assessing outcomes in the UK”. I wonder if anyone is interested in assessing outcomes in China?

Key areas for discussion (it seems they will never be deflected from the agenda) include: “Defining the UK’s role in meeting global climate targets” with, inevitably “securing the UK’s position as a global climate leader”. And, yet again, time is to be devoted to the “just transition” that never seems to happen, with focus on “protecting workers in phased-out industries through reskilling, job creation and economic diversification”; “producing sustainable transport alternatives – creating zero carbon rail journeys – unlocking more sustainable alternatives to car travel and domestic aviation”; and “continuing the transition to green, accessible and affordable energy – priorities for research and development in hydrogen, wind and solar”.

It’s all just words, as none of this ever seems to happen, though it is interesting to see confirmation of the plan to stop us using cars (unlocking more sustainable alternatives to car travel).

Migrant workers toil in perilous heat to prepare for Cop28 climate talks in UAE

Meanwhile, back in the real world, some of the reality surrounding COP28 appears to have shocked the Guardian, which today ran a story on its website with the above headline, and a sub-title “Report highlights evidence of workers from Africa and Asia labouring in 42C heat in Dubai to build conference facilities.”

The story is built around findings by FairSquare, a human rights research and advocacy group. One might have expected the United Nations to have thought a little harder before deciding to hold COP28 in the UAE (have they learned nothing from holding it in Egypt?). Instead, the Guardian tells us this:

Migrant workers make up about 90% of UAE’s private sector workforce, and carry out almost all manual labor in the country including preparations for COP28– the UN climate talks which tens of thousands of people including heads of state and diplomats from up to 195 countries are expected to attend.

The obscenity of these carbon-spewing, human rights-breaching shindigs might temporarily upset the Guardian, but it will no doubt not prevent it from cheer-leading once the gabfest is up and running. And, while technically reporting accurately on the issue, the Guardian can’t resist using the appalling heat under which the immigrant workers are toiling to create (yet again) the false impression that deaths from extreme heat (exacerbated, of course, by climate change) are the great problem:

More than 5 million people die each year globally because of excessively hot or cold conditions – and heat-related deaths are rising due to the climate emergency.

Of course, the vast majority of those deaths from excessive heat or cold are from excessive cold, and the gentle warming of the planet is reducing, rather than increasing, deaths from excessive temperatures, and is likely to do so for some time to come.

I will end with the ultimate irony surrounding COP28 (to date, at least):

“The story of migrant workers in the Gulf region is a story of climate injustice,” said Amali Tower, executive director of the non-profit Climate Refugees.

Please do add comments here as and when COP28-related stories catch your eye.

210 Comments

  2. Hallam on COP28:

    Any environmental organisation that participates in the #COP28 process in 2023 is as stupid and immoral as those negotiating with Hitler in 1939. The environment movement should refuse to deal with such appeasers. Or the movement as a whole should be shunned by anyone with any sense of solidarity with the billions to be slaughtered. It’s soon going to get very serious.

    (Yikes, that Hallam transcript you did must have hurt. As you said, he’s very hard to take in large doses.)

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Isn’t it odd that these beanos never take place somewhere like Wolverhampton?

    Like

  6. Quentin V,

    Well they did go to Glasgow in a cold, dank November. I suspect they were over-optimistic regarding the extent of climate change in Scotland. They have obviously resolved not to make that mistake again.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I’m sorry, Mark, but when I was reading through the titles of the various WEET symposium sessions I found my attention wandering. Questions such as, ‘How many roast potatoes do I want with my lamb today?’ began to intrude upon my consciousness. The heat-related mortality issue, on the other hand, did manage to survive the competition from pre-prandial musings.

    As readers of this blog will be aware, I have recently discovered the works of Professor Patrick Brown, and I have been making much of it of late. I make no excuses for this, since it is always important to recognise and acknowledge that not all climate scientists are card carrying members of Climate Club. Therefore, I present here a link to his paper written on the subject of heat-related-mortality:

    “Human Deaths from Hot and Cold Temperatures and Implications for Climate Change”

    https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change

    Here on Cliscep we have tended to concentrate upon how historical trends have been reported upon by those wishing to strengthen the argument for net zero. Quite rightly, we have called out the likes of the BBC and the Guardian for their deliberately skewed treatment of the subject (i.e. by failing to sufficiently stress that climate change has been saving lives up to this point). However, we haven’t really addressed the basis for the projections claiming that historical trends will be reversed in the long run. So I think the following statement from Brown carries some importance:

    “The reason for disagreement on the magnitude of projected future death rates is a thorough lack of consensus on how to estimate adaptation and changes in resilience. Some projections assume zero change in resilience and no adaptation, and most projections assume that changes in temperature will predominate over changes in resilience. Given that this is the opposite of what has been observed historically, the credibility of these projections is questionable.”

    Liked by 1 person

  10. nice animation trick Jit :-), I’ll try to visit when your done for copyright infringement.

    Like

  12. With great and sad predictability, the BBC has filed this story under COP28, so I’ll do the same. And of course they would – it’s part of the annual tradition of ramping up the hysteria before the tens of thousands jet in for their jamboree:

    “Carbon emissions threaten 1.5C climate threshold sooner than thought – report”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67242386

    Human fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold twice as quickly as previously thought, a new report says.

    Researchers say the 1.5C limit could be continually breached by 2029, rather than the mid 2030s.

    They say record emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor….

    Record emissions over the last three years, eh? All those COPs are really achieving things, aren’t they?

    Like

  13. Had a look at the linked paper – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5

    they have this comment –
    “They also re-examined the role of other, non-carbon factors that impact warming. One of the most critical are sooty particles called aerosols, which mainly arise from the burning of fossil fuels. They contribute heavily to air pollution but have an unexpected benefit for the climate because they help cool the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight back into space.
    The new research paper finds that these aerosols have in fact a far higher cooling impact than previously thought.
    But as the world strives to clean up dirty air in cities and to use less of the most heavily polluting fossil fuels, the number of aerosols in the atmosphere declines – meaning temperatures go up faster than previously thought.”

    not sure “sooty particles” are aerosols. but in my family coal fire heated house days, you had to get the chimney swept now & again to stop “Lum Fires”

    ps – love the model names used for this new study/paper – MAGICC & FaIR

    Like

  14. dfhunter,

    Yes, it’s complicated. Building ever-bigger cities leads to a significant and distorting urban heat island effect. Cutting down forests changes the climate in the area, including causing temperatures to rise significantly. A huge volcanic eruption in the Pacific Ocean puts huge amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere, leading to warming (though this one’s a bit too inconvenient, so tends to be ignored). And now, not only does fossil fuel use cause warming but it also causes cooling. What’s that about the climate system being chaotic? Complex, so complex, yet the pre-COP 28 narrative is so very simple.

    Like

  15. “Why did Norfolk and Suffolk flood after such a dry year?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-67242008

    A fairly well-balanced article, despite a very misleading and inaccurate headline (2023 wasn’t a particularly dry year at all, as the narrative in the article makes clear:

    …the agency said that unlike 2022, 2023 had not been a particularly dry year….

    The article talks about lots of factors leading to flooding this autumn – high levels of rainfall leading to rivers breaking their banks, which wouldn’t be a problem had we not built on floodplains (the clue’s in the name); sewerage and drainage systems that are failing because they weren’t designed for the amount of housing now in place; reduced tree cover (trees being useful for sucking up water); clay-rich soils, which shed water rather than soaking it up; and a general conclusion that says that this year has been a bit wetter than normal, but not remarkably so. But then, inevitably, we get this:

    What role did climate change play?

    While Prof Cloke acknowledges that “it is a bit too early to exactly pinpoint what happened”, she says storms like Babet are “getting worse because of climate change”.

    “We know that we have more energy and heat in the oceans and the atmosphere, and that means we can pick up more moisture from the sea, and the air can hold more rain.

    “That means heavier rainfall totals for these types of floods.”…

    …”It’s really important to make everybody aware that this is a problem. And it’s going to get worse.”

    It’s remarkable, really. An entire article carefully explaining that the causes of the flooding are complex and multi-faceted, yet it still manages to conclude (sort of) that it’s climate change wot dun it.

    Like

  16. Quelle surprise!

    “Deep divisions ahead of crucial UN climate talks”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67271688

    There are already signs that deep divisions could hamper progress at the UN’s crucial COP28 climate summit.

    More than 70 environment ministers and 100 national delegations have been meeting in Abu Dhabi ahead of talks that begin in Dubai on November 30.

    Many delegates doubt that a summit hosted by a petrostate – the United Arab Emirates – can shepherd the world towards a low carbon future….

    …The president of the COP28 conference, Sultan Al Jaber, acknowledged the challenges he faces.

    “We must find common ground, ensure consensus and resolve differences,” he urged in his opening speech.

    But Mr Al Jaber is himself a deeply divisive figure.

    He is also the head of Adnoc, the UAE’s state oil company and one of the largest oil producers in the world.

    Adnoc pumped 2.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2021, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

    Greta Thunberg described his appointment as “completely ridiculous” and said it called into question the entire UN climate process.

    The COP conferences “are not supposed to lead to a dramatic reduction in CO2 emissions,” she told me at a rally in London recently. “If they were then they would not put an oil executive as the president.”

    Not surprisingly Mr Al Jaber takes a very different view.

    He says climate change can only be solved if oil and gas are part of the discussion and argues his experience in the industry makes him the ideal person to push for action….

    …But for many in the audience that commitment rang hollow, not least because Mr Al Jaber’s oil company has bold expansion plans over the same period.

    It plans to increase capacity by 600,000 barrels a day by 2030 and is spending $150bn in the process….

    Mr Al Jaber has justified the expansion saying the world will still need some oil and gas even as emissions fall – something the UN’s climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has acknowledged.

    He says in that situation oil and gas from the UAE should be the amongst the world’s first choice, because barrel for barrel it is some of the lowest carbon oil to produce – although it creates the same amount of CO2 when it is actually burnt.

    Arguments like this help explain how the UAE and other oil producing nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US justify talking about the need to “phase down” fossil fuel production rather than phasing it out completely, given the CO2 they produce is the key source of greenhouse gas emissions…

    …But there is deadlock on other issues too.

    One of the big achievements of the last UN climate conference was to get global agreement to set up a “loss and damage” fund to help poor nations pay for the consequences of climate change…

    …But preparatory talks on how to set up such a fund and who might run it have already broken down and there are fears big polluting nations like the US could walk away from the discussions altogether.

    Mr Al Jaber says he is desperately trying to get the negotiations back on track and this week announced the UAE would host an additional meeting of the committee responsible.

    Even on issues where there is consensus, getting agreement at COP28 could prove elusive.

    One of the UAE’s key objectives for COP28 is to get the world to treble renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW by 2030.

    Most major economies are already on board with that goal.

    The G20, which represents the world’s biggest economic powers and includes China, the United States and India, agreed to a major ramp up of renewables at a meeting in September.

    However, some European nations and climate-vulnerable states have said they will only sign up to a commitment to clean energy if there is also agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.

    These deep differences on core issues show just how difficult progress is likely to be when the COP28 conference begins on November 30….

    Like

  21. The only ‘flickering’ will be that of the lights before they go off permanently because the wind isn’t blowing hard enough. Moonbat must have read my Substack article. He says:

    “We’re told we are living through the sixth mass extinction. But even this is a euphemism. We call such events mass extinctions because the most visible sign of the five previous catastrophes of the Phanerozoic era (since animals with hard body parts evolved) is the disappearance of fossils from the rocks. But their vanishing was a result of something even bigger. Mass extinction is a symptom of Earth systems collapse.

    In the most extreme case, the Permo-Triassic event, 252m years ago – when 90% of species were snuffed out – planetary temperatures spiked, the circulation of water around the globe more or less stopped, the soil was stripped from the land, deserts spread across much of the planet’s surface and the oceans drastically deoxygenated and acidified. In other words, Earth systems tipped into a new state that was uninhabitable for most of the species they had sustained.

    What we are living through today, unless sudden and drastic action is taken by us and our governments, is the sixth great Earth systems collapse.”

    Just six days ago, I wrote:

    “The Permian ended abruptly (over a total timescale of maybe 100,000 years) around 250 million years ago – and so did most of life on earth, in what is the worst known extinction event in geological history, more catastrophic even than the event which wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. 96% of marine species died, 70% of land species disappeared and virtually all of the trees growing on the planet died too. Now that is a proper extinction, not your airy-fairy, terribly scary, hypothetical man-made sixth mass extinction conjured up by the likes of mad Roger Hallam and his End Days Extinction Rebellion outfit who glue themselves to roads, scale bridges, climb on top of London tubes and generally make a nuisance of themselves to protest at the lack of urgency in addressing the supposed existential environmental crisis which faces humanity and the planet – as evidenced apparently by some melting ice, a few inches sea level rise, some very moderate global warming over the last 150 years and some recent bad weather – and really very nice weather! That’s nothing compared to what happened 250 million years ago. The Permian Extinction was a truly life-on-earth destroying catastrophic natural event; Hallam’s ‘extinction crisis’ and that of the climate alarmist ‘scientific’ community is a silly ape narrative which many have been conned into believing.”

    https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/apes-wolves-permian-extinction-rebellion

    What a strange coincidence.

    Liked by 2 people

  22. “King Charles to give opening address at Cop28 climate summit
    Attendance in UAE confirmed a year after Truss government advised Charles not to attend Egypt event”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/king-charles-to-give-opening-address-cop28-climate-summit-uae

    …Buckingham Palace said: “The king will deliver an opening address at the summit, hosted by the president of the UAE, in Dubai. While in the UAE, the king will take the opportunity to have meetings with regional leaders, ahead of Cop28.”

    While there, he will attend a reception to launch the inaugural Cop28 business and philanthropy climate forum, a two-day event running in parallel with the world climate action summit, being hosted by the Cop28 presidency in strategic partnership with the Sustainable Markets Initiative (SMI), which the king founded while Prince of Wales.

    The king, as Prince of Wales, previously delivered the opening address at the opening ceremony of Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, where he called on world leaders to adopt a “warlike footing” to tackle the climate crisis. At Cop21 in Paris in 2015, he called for a “vast military-style campaign” to fight climate breakdown, urging world leaders to commit “trillions, not billions, of dollars”. In a video address to the 2021 conference, the late queen hailed Charles’s work on the environment.

    Like

  23. Any bit of weather news is being weaponised by the BBC ahead of COP28:

    “October was wettest month on record, says Armagh Observatory”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67303572

    The conclusion to this article (no ifs, no buts):

    When it comes to discerning climate change in action, the more evidence you can gather, the better.

    And more than 200 years’ worth of consistent records make for a lot of evidence.

    It allows patterns and changes to be clearly detected.

    The records at Armagh Observatory show definitively that climate change is affecting our lives here and now.

    As well as more rainfall as the result of a warming atmosphere, the increasing temperature can also be seen in the data and these all present challenges for us to adapt to.

    But they are also a signal that time to mitigate the impact of climate change is running out.

    The evidence on which it is based?

    October 2023 was the wettest month on record (in Northern Ireland), with 195.4mm, beating 193.8mm (so, big deal), that fell…153 years ago. in 1870.

    It also had the warmest October day for…97 years (meaning it was warmer in 1926 in October, and on another unspecified occasion before then too, since we are told that it was the third highest temperature recorded at the Observatory in October).

    Like

  24. There seems to be a reluctance here to accept any evidence that supports the view that temperatures are marginally increasing (= climate is changing)(like temperature records from Armagh Observatory). I used to follow this line until I became aware that plankton in the North Sea have totally changed with warmer southern species now dominating and former dominant species now moved north. This apparently has had really negative effects upon cod fishing.
    This change in plankton is, for me, clear evidence for a major temperature change within North Sea waters and greatly supports claims of climate change affecting neighbouring lands. It says nothing about the causes of such changes, however.

    Like

  25. Alan, it’s back to Calanus again. There are reasons beyond temperature that cause substantial changes in the plankton. Let me quote myself from a couple of years ago:

    So now we have to rewind to Fromentin & Planque 1996 where it was noted that one of the key prey items of the sand eel is affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation. This beast is a planktonic copepod called Calanus. There are two very similar species in the North Sea (I think there is a third species found further north). Calanus finmarchicus is more abundant when the NAO is in its negative phase, and Calanus helgolandicus is more abundant when the NAO is positive. When the NAO is positive, there are more westerlies. The surface of the sea is more mixed. The spring plankton bloom is delayed. This favours helgolandicus because its reproductive timing is later. This may also explain why helgolandicus is less nutritious prey for sand eel larvae.

    Birdageddon 2 — The Puffin’s Tale

    [A guest post by me kindly hosted by John.]

    Like

  26. PS. I do not reject the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, nor that its increase has caused the Earth’s temperature to rise. I reject the catastrophe that this is supposed to entail.

    Like

  27. Jit. Snap! I also believe that increasing volumes of CO2 (and other gases) in the atmosphere are likely to increase temperatures but are most unlikely to cause catastrophe. The main reason for these beliefs are the instances that I know about in the geologic past that had atmospheres with substantially higher CO2 contents than even the most extreme projections predict today but during which there was no catastrophe.

    It is because of this argument and evidence that I expect there to be evidence of temperature increases and it sometimes grates when I read that questioning such changes seems to be needed to disprove climate change dogma.

    With regard to North Sea plankton, I believe it to have been a wholesale change not just confined to a few species for which a non-temperature change might have been the cause.

    Like

  28. Alan,

    Actually, I suspect we are in pretty much complete agreement. I do not demur from your or Jit’s expressed views on this thread.

    Rather, my issue is with the weaponisation of weather data that don’t actually support the claims made. If it was warmer almost a century ago in Northern Ireland in October, then this October’s very warm day in Northern Ireland is interesting as part of an overall picture, but of itself it is not evidence, let alone proof, of climate change.

    We will no doubt see a lot more of this sort of thing in the run-up to COP28.

    Like

  29. BTW JIT forgive my memory lapses (of your past written efforts). My memory is fading quite fast.

    Like

  30. Mark,

    What this extremely dishonest and extremely stupid BBC article is claiming is that Armagh Observatory, in October, is the canary in the coal mine of global climate change caused by human beings. It is extreme weather propaganda on stilts, more evidence as you say of the weaponisation of weather data to push a political agenda.

    “Its director Prof Michael Burton said the data sent a clear signal.

    “There’s no doubt in the pattern we’re all seeing – these are all evidence of the world’s changing climate,” he said.

    “Essentially the extreme will become more often and so you get more hot days, more wet days, you even get cold days as well.

    “But it’s the extreme – it’s no longer an oddity, it’s a regular event that these things are happening and they’re happening everywhere.”

    It comes as communities in counties Down, Armagh and Antrim start to assess the damage after flooding this week.

    While Professor Burton said no single measurement should have too much read into it, he explained that a warmer atmosphere does hold more water and that means we are likely to experience more warmer, wetter winters.

    “That’s physics,” he added.”

    Here is the rainfall record for October for NI:

    See any pattern which is evidence of the world’s changing climate?

    Let’s try autumn:

    Still no real pattern . . . . . because it’s weather!

    Yes, NI and the rest of the UK has got significantly warmer over the last 200 years and, in terms of annual rainfall, it has become a bit wetter. That IS basic physics. But that’s as far as it goes and this says nothing about the principal cause of the observed warming.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. Jaime – I have a list of rainfall figures from 1995 to 2021 for our village in Central Scotland, making a comparison of Octobers here against Northern Ireland . Sco max 266mm in 2004 : Ire max 250mm in 1870. We have been over 250mm on 3 occasions between 1995 – 2021. Minimum here 21mm in 2003 , Ireland 50mm in 2003. Scotland and Ireland are very similar but Ireland better at Rugby !

    Like

  32. “Climate crisis talks resume on ‘loss and damage’ funding for poorest countries
    World leaders will reconvene in Abu Dhabi before UAE’s Cop28 after talks broke down two weeks ago”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-climate-crisis-talks-resume-loss-damage-funding-poorest-countries

    Governments will meet this weekend for a last-ditch attempt to bridge deep divisions between rich and poor countries over how to get money to vulnerable people afflicted by climate disaster.

    Talks over funds for “loss and damage”, which refers to the rescue and rehabilitation of countries and communities experiencing the effects of extreme weather, started in March but broke down in rancour two weeks ago.

    Countries have reconvened in Abu Dhabi for a final two-day meeting, ending on Saturday night, to try to resolve the outstanding problems ahead of the UN Cop28 climate summit, which begins in the United Arab Emirates at the end of this month.

    Forging a compromise this weekend is viewed as essential to making progress on loss and damage at Cop28, as campaigners fear if there is not broad agreement before the summit the plans will become bogged down in the complex Cop negotiations….

    Like

  33. There are so many places I could post this, but here seems as good as anywhere:

    “UN to seek assurances UK will not renege on net zero pledge
    Concerns ahead of Cop28 climate summit that Rishi Sunak among leaders backsliding on green measures”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-to-seek-assurances-uk-will-not-renege-on-net-zero-pledge

    The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, will be seeking assurances from the UK that there will be no reneging on climate promises, after Rishi Sunak’s rowing back on green measures.

    The UN is concerned that countries may be backsliding on pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions sharply, to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

    Top UN officials called for countries to put aside geopolitical tensions in order to make progress on tackling the climate crisis at the crucial Cop28 climate summit in Dubai, which begins on 30 November.

    Amina Mohammed, deputy secretary general, said the UN was “absolutely” concerned about backsliding on climate commitments because “there is a lot of it”. Countries made pledges last year, at the Cop27 summit in Egypt, and at the landmark Cop26 summit in Glasgow in 2021, where the 1.5C limit was strongly affirmed.

    Many countries have since appeared to waver, through expanding fossil fuel access after the invasion of Ukraine, or by failing to set strong targets. In the UK, the prime minister has said the legally binding target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 still stands, but recent actions, such as postponing the phase-out of petrol driven cars and gas boilers, make it doubtful the UK will meet its emissions reduction commitments for 2030.

    In the US, Joe Biden has licensed new oil and gas developments, despite taking a strong stance on the climate crisis. The EU has also recently failed to toughen its commitment to emissions reduction, currently set at a 55% cut by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, and China and India continue to invest in coal.

    “Certainly, the secretary general will be leaning in to have those conversations with countries like the UK, the US, China, many [others]. It doesn’t stop,” Mohammed told the Guardian. “We have to keep them in the room [discussing climate action]. We need to get out of everyone the best of the ambition that is expected from us.”

    She said backsliding was a problem. “We have to call that out and it has to reverse itself. There is a lot of it. And this is what brings more mistrust into the room, that suddenly the goalposts may be changing.”…

    It already feels as though COP28 could be the biggest failure yet (and that’s saying something).

    Like

  34. Boom in unusual jellyfish spotted in UK waters
    Published 19 hours ago

    “It “could be an indication that as climate change is happening, we are seeing tropicalisation of the oceans”, she said, referring to the higher temperatures of the water.
    Scientists say that many marine species will move their range northwards over time as waters warm.

    “But we don’t know if the high numbers this summer are a longer-term natural trend or linked to the marine heatwaves. There is a lack of research – we have to do more studies,” she says.

    UK heatwaveshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67301074

    Wonder what they taste like? – Jelly & chips please

    Like

  35. Mark – from your above quote –
    “The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, will be seeking assurances from the UK that there will be no reneging on climate promises, after Rishi Sunak’s rowing back on green measures.”

    somebody needs to tell Guterres to butt out of UK climate promises, we will decide our future.

    ps- this guy needs to go IMHO, he spouts nonsense with every statement he makes.

    Like

  36. “‘Take it or leave it’: Acrimony flares amid tenuous agreement on climate aid
    The U.S. pushed for voluntary payments in a high-stakes negotiation over a global fund for climate disasters.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/04/climate-aid-agreement-00125399

    Negotiators struck a fragile agreement Saturday over the outlines of an international fund for climate-ravaged countries after hours of acrimonious haggling foreshadowed likely divisions at the global climate talks later this month.

    The agreement, stitched tenuously together long after sunset in Abu Dhabi, included a provision demanded by the U.S. that says payments into the fund would be voluntary — leaving the Biden administration with the option of not contributing….

    Like

  37. It’s all going so well…

    “‘Insanity’: petrostates planning huge expansion of fossil fuels, says UN report
    Plans by nations including Saudi Arabia, the US and UAE would blow climate targets and ‘throw humanity’s future into question’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report

    The world’s fossil fuel producers are planning expansions that would blow the planet’s carbon budget twice over, a UN report has found. Experts called the plans “insanity” which “throw humanity’s future into question”.

    The energy plans of the petrostates contradicted their climate policies and pledges, the report said. The plans would lead to 460% more coal production, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil in 2030 than it was possible to burn if global temperature rise was to be kept to the internationally agreed 1.5C. The plans would also produce 69% more fossil fuels than is compatible with the riskier 2C target.

    The countries responsible for the largest carbon emissions from planned fossil fuel production are India (coal), Saudi Arabia (oil) and Russia (coal, oil and gas). The US and Canada are also planning to be major oil producers, as is the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is hosting the crucial UN climate summit Cop28, which starts on 30 November.

    The report sets out starkly the fundamental conflict driving the climate crisis: fossil fuel burning must rapidly be cut down to zero, yet petrostates and companies intend to keep on making trillions of dollars a year by increasing production.

    “The addiction to fossil fuels still has its claws deep in many nations,” said Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN environment programme. “These plans throw humanity’s future into question. Governments must stop saying one thing and doing another.”

    Neil Grant, an analyst at the Climate Analytics thinktank and an author of the report, said: “Despite their climate promises, governments’ plan on ploughing yet more money into a dirty, dying industry, while opportunities abound in a flourishing clean energy sector. On top of economic insanity, it is a climate disaster of our own making.”…

    When fantasy meets reality. And if, as claimed, the fossil fuel industry is dying, how come it’s expanding?

    Liked by 1 person

  38. Mark – some “Experts” seem to have no idea how the world energy system works, or is conflict of interest a factor!!!

    take this quote from Neil Grant -“governments’ plan on ploughing yet more money into a dirty, dying industry, while opportunities abound in a flourishing clean energy sector”

    again, had to look up “Climate Analytics” – https://climateanalytics.org/about-us/team/

    nice team they have, finally found Neil Grant on left side list under “Climate Policy Analysis”.

    wonder if BBC Panorama will get a insider into one such org to see what they do all day.

    ps – long list of funders – https://climateanalytics.org/about-us/partners-and-funders/

    Like

  39. dfhunter,

    There are so many organisations like Climate Analytics that it’s almost impossible to keep track of them all. They seem to exist purely to proselytise about climate change, to denigrate fossil fuels, and to push net zero on an unwilling populace. Funding doesn’t seem to be a problem. As so often, the EU (among many others) pushes money at these people. Thankfully I don’t see the UK government on the list of funders, but there are lots of organisations like this who do, for some reason I haven’t yet fathomed, benefit from UK taxpayer largesse, courtesy of our deluded politicians.

    Like

  40. This one was also given prominence on the news on BBC Radio 4 earlier today. Why wouldn’t it be? It’s that time of year again:

    “Lightning fires threaten planet-cooling forests”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67360140

    Climate change could bring more lightning to forests in northern reaches of the globe, increasing the risk of wildfires, a new study shows.

    Researchers found that lightning is the main cause of fires similar to those seen in parts of Canada this summer.

    These forests limit climate change by trapping planet-heating carbon.

    More lightning could spark a vicious cycle, as trees and soil set ablaze release warming CO2 – creating more storms and potentially more lightning….

    …Using climate models, the authors also found that lightning frequency over intact northern forests would increase by 11-31% for every degree of global warming….

    Like

  41. Mark – from that article –
    “The researchers believe the most effective step would be major cuts in emissions of warming gases which might in turn limit the rise in lighting strikes. The possibility of more fires as large as the ones seen in Canada this year should be a wake-up call, experts say.”

    now researchers & experts think they can “limit the rise in lighting strikes” because my climate model tells me so!!!

    wonder how many fires before we had satellite coverage?

    Like

  42. “Australia offers climate refuge to Tuvalu citizens”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-67340907

    Australia has offered refuge to citizens of Tuvalu because of the catastrophic impacts of climate change, in a landmark new pact.

    Tuvalu – a series of low-lying atolls in the Pacific – is among the nations most at risk from rising seas.

    It is home to 11,200 people and has repeatedly called for greater action to combat climate change.

    Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described it as a “ground-breaking” agreement.

    Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano called it “a beacon of hope” and “not just a milestone but a giant leap forward in our joint mission to ensure regional stability, sustainability and prosperity”.

    Up to 280 people per year will be granted the new visas, which will allow them to live, work and study in Australia.

    It is the first time Australia has offered residency to foreign nationals because of the threat of climate change, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported….

    Anyone might think there’s aCOP in the offing…

    Like

  43. “US and China reach ‘some agreements’ on climate – John Kerry”

    But they’re not going to tell us what they are yet….

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67376471

    The US has reached some agreements with China ahead of the COP28 Summit in Dubai at the end of this month, Washington’s climate envoy has said.

    “We felt that our days of talks were very successful. We did come up with some agreements”, John Kerry told the BBC at a business summit in Singapore.

    Details will be shared “at the appropriate moment soon”, he said.

    The world’s two biggest polluters finding common ground is considered a crucial part of any consensus at COP28.

    Mr Kerry had met with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua in California this week for four days. He described the meetings as tough and serious….

    Like

  44. Liked this Holiday ad for Tuvalu.
    https://www.beautifulpacific.com/tuvalu/

    website blurb –
    “Tuvalu Resorts & Accommodation
    The nine islands that make up Tuvalu are all tiny flat coral atolls barely 5 metre above the sea level. Climate change is the coutry’s greatest concern and it champions its issues around the worls. Aside from its environmetal challenge the islands are beautiful and all offer excellent swimming, snorkelling and fishing, but remember that you’re unlikely to find any hotels or other accommodation on the smaller islands. There are a couple of small hotels and guesthouses in Funafati but that’s about it. You’re far more likely to come across government personnel and NGO’s in the hotel reception than other tourists. In fact, you may be the only tourist in town!”

    Like

  45. dfhunter, even more amusing is the official Tuvalu tourism website:

    https://www.timelesstuvalu.com/

    This website is owned and operated by the Government of Tuvalu. Managed by the Ministry of Transport, Energy and Tourism.

    Good to see, transport, energy and tourism all lumped together in a single department in a country that claims to be concerned about climate change. So why are they encouraging people to fly there?

    Like

  46. “UK softens stance on fossil fuels ahead of COP28 summit
    The move shifts London away from a tougher position adopted by the EU.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-softens-stance-on-fossil-fuels-net-zero-cop28-summit/

    Britain has signaled plans to water down its position on a core part of COP28 negotiations just weeks before the global climate talks begin.

    Energy and Climate Minister Graham Stuart, who will head the U.K. delegation to the COP summit, told MPs Wednesday that he was not fixated on whether countries agree to “phasing down” or “phasing out” fossil fuels so long as the COP agreement “translates into real action.”

    His comments mark a significant change in direction for the U.K. government, shifting London away from the tougher position on fossil fuels adopted by the EU. It follows Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement last month that key net zero targets — though not the U.K.’s aim to hit carbon neutrality by 2050 — would be rolled back.

    The distinction between “phasing down” and “phasing out” fossil fuels has become a key bone of contention between countries ahead of the COP28 talks, which start in Dubai in just three weeks’ time….

    …But climate negotiators are expecting pushback at the summit. China says that “phase out” is unrealistic. Oil and gas producing countries like Saudi Arabia are expected to resist calls for more ambitious language on fossil fuels….

    …The U.K. — having previously formed part of the EU bloc at COP negotiations — will this year for the first time be aligned with the so-called “umbrella group” of countries which includes the U.S., Canada and Australia.

    U.S. Climate envoy John Kerry told TIME earlier this month that “in order to phase out, you’ve got to first phase down. Phase down is the road to phase out.”

    Liked by 1 person

  47. “Extreme drought in northern Italy mirrors climate in Ethiopia
    Research shows global heating creates ‘whiplash effect’ of erratic extremes – often in poorest countries”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/extreme-drought-in-northern-italy-mirrors-climate-in-ethiopia

    …The research was published on the eve of the UN’s Cop28 climate conference where funds to help communities adapt and become more resilient to the extremes of climate change will be on the agenda once more….

    “The research was published on the eve of the UN’s Cop28 climate conference…”. Of course it was, and no doubt deliberately so.

    Liked by 1 person

  48. As you suspect Mark, it’s pure propaganda ahead of COP28, spearheaded by Water Aid. The ‘research’ is remarkably difficult to find (I can’t locate it anywhere) but it does NOT do what it says on the can by the sounds of it:

    Co-lead researcher, Professor Michael Singer of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Cardiff University, warned these climatic phenomena are not just confined to these countries.

    He said: “Most dramatically, we found that many locations are undergoing major shifts in the prevailing climate. Specifically, many of our study sites have experienced a hazard flip from being drought-prone to flood-prone or vice versa.

    “Although the scope of this study was limited to a handful of countries and specific locations within them, we believe the hazard flip and, more generally, changes to flood and drought hazard frequency and magnitude are something most places on the planet will have to address.”

    A BELIEF that observed extreme weather ‘flips’ over two or three decades in a few locations within a few countries will apply globally and be due to man-made climate change is NOT science.

    The propaganda drive ahead of COP28 is clear:

    WaterAid is calling on world leaders at COP28 this year to prioritise clean water, decent sanitation and good hygiene as a key component to climate adaptation programmes as well as rapidly scale up in investment in water security in low- and middle-income countries:

    High income countries must more than double their public finance for adaptation from 2019 levels by 2025 and match climate funding amounts to mitigation funding.
    High income country governments, financing institutions and the private sector should provide at least £500m towards a total of £5-10bn needed for water security over the next 4 years.
    In the UK, following a series of row backs on climate commitments, WaterAid is calling on Rishi Sunak to show leadership at COP28 – including the UK government investing one third of the UK’s international climate finance budget towards locally led adaptation projects that will bring a year-round supply of clean water to those most in need – and to influence other global governments to make similar commitments.
    Tim Wainwright, WaterAid’s Chief Executive, said: “The climate crisis is a water crisis and, as our research today shows, our climate has become increasingly unpredictable with devastating consequences.

    “From drought-stricken farmlands to flood-ravaged settlements, communities in Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Ethiopia are all experiencing alarming climate whiplash effects; Uganda is experiencing ever more catastrophic flooding and Mozambique a chaotic mix of both extremes.”

    https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2023/november/flooding-and-drought.html

    Give us your (taxpayers) money . . . . . . cos climate change. This will be the recurrent theme of COP28. NGOs and charities trying to justify and increase their fat budgets by demanding more funding from ‘rich’ countries in order to tackle a fabricated ‘climate crisis’.

    Liked by 1 person

  49. Well, Jaime, if the following report is to be believed (more pre-COP propaganda) I would suggest they might as well not bother turning up:

    “World behind on almost every policy required to cut carbon emissions, research finds
    Coal must be phased out seven times faster and deforestation reduced four times faster to avoid worst impacts of climate breakdown, says report”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/world-behind-on-almost-every-policy-required-to-cut-carbon-emissions-research-finds

    Coal must be phased out seven times faster than is now happening, deforestation must be reduced four times faster, and public transport around the world built out six times faster than at present, if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown, new research has found.

    Countries are falling behind on almost every policy required to cut greenhouse gas emissions, despite progress on renewable energy and the uptake of electric vehicles.

    This failure makes the prospect of holding global temperatures to 1.5C above preindustrial levels even more remote, according to the State of Climate Action 2023 report. The authors advise that world needs to:

    Retire about 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants a year, every year between now and 2030.
    Construct the equivalent of three New Yorks’ worth of public transport systems in cities around the world each year this decade.
    Halt deforestation, which is happening to an area the size of 15 football pitches every minute, this decade.
    Increase the rate of growth of solar and wind power from its current high of 14% a year to 24% a year.
    Cut meat consumption from ruminants such as cows and sheep to about two servings a week in the US, Europe and other high-consuming countries by 2030….

    Yeah, right. That’s going to happen, isn’t it?

    Like

  51. Upping the ante, BBC? Front page on the news section of its website:

    “Brazil: Health warnings as country gripped by ‘unbearable’ heatwave”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67422663

    Red alerts have been issued for almost 3,000 towns and cities across Brazil, which have been experiencing an unprecedented heatwave.

    Rio de Janeiro recorded 42.5C on Sunday – a record for November – and high humidity on Tuesday meant that it felt like 58.5C, municipal authorities said….

    Felt like…but wasn’t.

    …The heatwave, which comes more than a month before the beginning of summer in the southern hemisphere…

    Not so, unless you work on the assumption that summer starts only on the summer solstice (some people do, but most people don’t). Still, if it fits the narrative, use it, I suppose.

    Meanwhile, not fitting the narrative, is the exceptional snow and cold currently being experienced in China (I don’t suppose the BBC would describe this as being more than a month before the start of winter…, but then again, the BBC don’t seem to cover it at all on its website, so far as I can see). Not fitting the agenda doesn’t stop some news agencies reporting on it, however:

    “Heavy snow blankets northern China”

    https://www.dw.com/en/heavy-snow-blankets-northern-china/a-67321360

    …China’s National Meteorological Center said snow from the cold snap, which it expects to endure for a few more days, was likely to “break through historical records” for the same time of the year.

    Chinese authorities have issued an orange weather alert for the region, the second highest on a four color scale used by Beijing.

    People were advised to avoid unnecessary travel and to stay indoors where possible….

    Like

  52. That’s a fail, then…:

    “Climate change: US and China take ‘small but important steps'”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67425588

    The US and China have agreed on measures to tackle climate change but stopped short of committing to end fossil fuels, a joint statement said.

    The world’s biggest carbon emitters will step up co-operation on methane and support global efforts to triple renewable energy by 2030.

    But the document is silent on the use of coal, and the future of fossil energy.

    Observers said it was a positive sign ahead of a UN climate summit….

    I’m not sure on what basis those unnamed observers could so conclude, given this:

    However, a reduction in the use of coal isn’t mentioned in the document and there’s no discussion of the ending of fossil fuels, something that the president of the UN climate conference, known as COP28, has said is a key focus for the meeting.

    And get this – who knew?

    When countries agreed the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 in Glasgow, and aimed to reduce emissions of methane by 30% by 2030, China wasn’t among the signatories.

    The world’s second largest economy doesn’t currently count methane as a warming gas in its submissions to the UN.

    But according to the statement, the two countries will now include all greenhouse gases including methane in their next round of national climate plans.

    The whole basis of “carbon accounting” seems to have excluded methane (at least so far as the Chinese are concerned), making a mockery of the whole thing. It makes my conclusions in this article even tamer than perhaps they ought to have been:

    How Do You Measure Hot Air?

    Like

  53. Irony:

    “Cop28 host UAE has world’s biggest climate-busting oil plans, data indicates
    State oil company’s huge expansion plans make its CEO’s role as president of UN climate summit ‘ridiculous’, say researchers”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/15/cop28-host-uae-oil-plans-data

    …$170bn has been spent by the industry on exploration for new oil and gas reserves since 2021.
    96% of the 700 companies that explore or develop new oil and gas fields are continuing to do so.
    More than 1,000 companies are planning new gas pipelines, gas-fired power plants or liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminals…

    Like

  55. “Climate change: Fewer wild swans returning to UK in winter”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67407574

    Part of the COP 28 push, methinks. Yet despite the climate change claims made in the article about swans arriving in fewer numbers and arriving later for their winter migration, I have two comments. First this, from the article itself:

    But the global population is also declining fast, with threats from:

    deliberate killing
    lead poisoning
    the loss of wetland habitat

    So is it really surprising that we in the UK are seeing fewer swans?

    Secondly, regarding migrating birds I have seen huge skeins of geese (geese, admittedly, not swans) flying south since early October. That doesn’t seem to me to be indicative of them leaving it later to migrate thanks to “climate change”.

    Like

  56. Mark,

    I too have just the two comments:

    First, this article is typical in the way that truly significant concerns such as habitat loss are treated as incidental, in deference to the climate change narrative. The headline should have been about these other issues. I worry that this lack of headline attention is indicative of a more significant failure of perspective and priority.

    Second, this is actually a good news story: Geese are no longer having to migrate as far in winter. So if they insist on giving climate change the headline billing, then they should at least be going with the positive spin. But this is the BBC, of course, which has long since banned the idea that there are any positives to climate change. And so we have this instead:

    “Kane Brides, senior research officer at the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve, said the ‘saddest fact’ was one day the swans may never return to Britain.”

    So habitat loss, lead poisoning and deliberate killing are not as sad as the fact that the Germans and Dutch now get to see more Bewick’s swans than we Brits! That’s how desperate we are to turn good news into bad.

    Liked by 1 person

  57. “Africa proposes global carbon taxes to fight climate change”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66733557

    African leaders have proposed a global carbon tax regime in a joint declaration.

    The Nairobi Declaration capped the three-day Africa Climate Summit in Kenya’s capital.

    The document, released on Wednesday, demanded that major polluters commit more resources to help poorer nations.

    African heads of state said they will use it as the basis of their negotiating position at November’s COP28 summit….

    Not a mention of China, but I think we can safely assume that China (and others) will squash this (unless they continue to hide behind being exempt by virtue of being “developing” countries – despite having the second largest economy in the world).

    Liked by 1 person

  58. “In pictures: Waxwing irruption flies into Scotland”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67415207

    A joyous story, with some wonderful pictures of some beautiful birds 9sadly I have still never seen one in the wild).

    Needless to say a shortage of Bewick’s Swans is down to climate change, but large numbers of waxwings are down to….well, not climate change, apparently. It seems they have been so successful that there isn’t enough food for them, which is why they are in the UK in larger numbers than usual. Happy days. I’m still hoping to see one.

    Like

  59. COP28 – some straws in the wind
    There may be trouble ahead …

    Africa and India push rich nations to phase out fossil fuels faster
    At Cop28, developed nations will face calls to quit fossil fuels faster than developing countries, who did less to cause the climate crisis
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/10/16/africa-and-india-cop28-positions-fossil-fuel-phase-out/

    EU countries hammer out joint stance for COP28 climate summit
    EU countries on Monday (16 October) adopted a common stance for the United Nations COP28 international climate conference but language on the EU’s emissions reduction target and fossil fuel exit goal was softened to reach a unanimous decision.
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-countries-hammer-out-joint-stance-for-cop28-climate-summit/

    China climate envoy says phasing out fossil fuels ‘unrealistic’
    The complete phasing-out of fossil fuels is not realistic, China’s top climate official said, adding that these climate-warming fuels must continue to play a vital role in maintaining global energy security.
    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-climate-envoy-says-phasing-out-fossil-fuels-unrealistic-2023-09-22/

    US, EU blamed as climate fund talks break down over World Bank push
    During fraught talks that were partially webcast, negotiators from developing countries blamed the U.S. in particular for insisting on housing the proposed fund in the World Bank, an institution dominated by highly developed economies.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/us-eu-blamed-climate-fund-break-down-world-bank/

    At UN climate summit big polluters’ absence speaks volumes
    While “ambitious” countries made few new announcements, the US, China, India and the UK had not offered enough to even sit in the room
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/09/22/at-un-climate-summit-big-polluters-absence-speaks-volumes/

    China warns against ’empty slogans’ at COP28 climate talks
    Countries must refrain from “empty slogans” and adopt a pragmatic attitude to climate change that reflects concerns such as energy security, employment and growth, a Chinese climate official said on Friday ahead of COP28 climate talks next month.
    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/china-warns-against-empty-slogans-cop28-climate-talks-2023-10-27/

    Global discord threatens COP28 climate talks, EU commissioner says
    Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra also said the EU would not accept an outcome at COP28 that only reached deals on less contentious topics – such as increased use of renewable energy – if it failed to solve tougher issues such as phasing out fossil fuels.
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/global-discord-threatens-cop28-climate-talks-eu-commissioner-says/

    Will China pay climate change “loss and damage”?
    ‘I normally despise the bogus issue of “loss and damage,” which is featured in the upcoming COP 28 extravaganza. But for now, I love it because it has squarely raised the long overdue issue of China’s status as a so-called developing country.’
    https://www.cfact.org/2023/10/31/will-china-pay-climate-change-loss-and-damage/

    UN to seek assurances UK will not renege on net zero pledge
    The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, will be seeking assurances from the UK that there will be no reneging on climate promises, after Rishi Sunak’s rowing back on green measures.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-to-seek-assurances-uk-will-not-renege-on-net-zero-pledge

    Real-world crises to beset COP28 climate confab
    Carbon tax blunders, transition problems and wars will complicate matters at United Nations conference this month
    https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-real-world-crises-to-beset-cop28-climate-confab

    Global fossil fuel production plans far exceed climate targets, UN says
    Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the level deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the United Nations and researchers said on Wednesday.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-fossil-fuel-production-plans-far-exceed-climate-targets-un-says-2023-11-08/

    Liked by 1 person

  60. Thanks Robin, that’s an interesting summary.

    I find it particularly interesting that developing countries reserve the right to burn fossil fuels while insisting that developed countries cease to do so.

    Of course, if they believed that we face an existential climate crisis, they would be looking to cease using fossil fuels themselves. Evidently, then, they don’t believe in said crisis, especially given that climate alarmists keep telling us that developing countries are the ones most at risk from it.

    Still, they have obviously worked out that it’s a great way of screwing money out of the west, while inducing it to hamstring itself at the same time. There are plenty of useful idiots in the west eager to press this agenda on us.

    Liked by 3 people

  61. The push is well and truly on now, regardless of the problems that will turn COP28 into yet another failure (in a long line of failures):

    “World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before Cop28
    ‘We must start setting records on cutting emissions,’ UN boss says after temperature records obliterated in 2023”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/world-facing-hellish-3c-of-climate-heating-un-warns-before-cop28

    …To get on track for the internationally agreed target of 1.5C, 22bn tonnes of CO2 must be cut from the currently projected total in 2030, the report said. That is 42% of global emissions and equivalent to the output of the world’s five worst polluters: China, US, India, Russia and Japan….

    Like

  62. Well Mark, those cuts are not gonna happen – there isn’t the remotest possibility of China, India, Russia etc. complying. So I suppose we’re all doomed. Or maybe – just maybe – Gutteres has got it all wrong. The Chinese seem to think so.

    Liked by 3 people

  63. “Anti-green backlash hovers over COP climate talks
    War, a fossil fuel boom and populist revolts are sapping the optimism from the fight against climate change. And then there’s Trump.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/cop28-climate-summit-dubai-unfccc-anti-green-backlash/

    …The best outcome for the climate from the 13-day meeting, which is known as COP28 and opens Nov. 30, would be an unambiguous statement from almost 200 countries on how they intend to hasten their plans to cut fossil fuels, alongside new commitments from the richest nations on the planet to assist the poorest.

    But the odds against that happening are rising. Instead, the U.S. and its European allies are still struggling to cement a fragile deal with developing countries about an international climate-aid fund that had been hailed as the historic accomplishment of last year’s summit. Meanwhile, a populist backlash against the costs of green policies has governments across Europe pulling back — a reverse wave that would become an American-led tsunami if Donald Trump recaptures the White House next year.

    And across the developing world, the rise of energy and food prices stoked by the pandemic and the Ukraine war has caused inflation and debt to spiral, heightening the domestic pressure on climate-minded governments to spend their money on their most acute needs first.

    Even U.S. President Joe Biden, whose 2022 climate law kicked off a boom of clean-energy projects in the U.S., has endorsed fossil fuel drilling and pipeline projects under pressure to ease voter unease about rising fuel costs.

    Add to all that the newest Mideast war that began with Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7….

    Like

  64. Front page news on the BBC website:

    “Climate change: Rise in Google searches around ‘anxiety’”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67473829

    Online search queries related to “climate anxiety” have risen, according to data gathered by Google and shared exclusively with BBC 100 Women.

    Studies also suggests that women are more affected by climate anxiety than men.

    The rise of wildfires, floods and droughts around the world are just some of the highly visible signs of climate change.

    What is reported less is the impact of climate change on human minds.

    Climate anxiety – defined as feelings of distress about the impacts of climate change – has been reported globally, particularly among children and young people.

    Data from Google Trends shows that search queries related to “climate anxiety” have increased dramatically.

    Search queries in English around “climate anxiety” in the first 10 months of 2023 are 27 times higher than the same period in 2017….

    …In 2022, the IPCC reported on the mental health impacts of climate change for the first time. This year’s COP28 in Dubai will also feature several discussions about mental health.

    Just as the physical impacts of climate change are on the rise, so too is the attention paid to its impacts on the mind.

    Like

  66. Another misleading headline as it all ramps up ahead of COP28:

    “Mount Stewart: Renowned gardens already affected by climate change”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67501813

    Climate change is already affecting one of Northern Ireland’s best-known National Trust sites, with the charity calling for action to tackle it.

    There are plans to move part of the grounds in Mount Stewart, on the Ards Peninsula in County Down, in response to forecasted changes.

    Mount Stewart is renowned for its gardens and historic house.

    However modelling suggests it is very likely some of those gardens will be slowly flooded in the next 100 years.

    The charity’s climate and science adviser Seán Maxwell said Mount Stewart would “not look like it does now” in a century.

    The National Trust said there was a “clear legislative gap” on climate adaptation in Northern Ireland….

    So it’s about modelling the future, not what’s happening now. There is one lame attempt to say that climate change is already having an impact:

    …Trees and plants in the gardens have already been damaged by “increasing storm intensity”, said Mike Buffin, Mount Stewart’s head gardener.

    “Winds bring salt spray which can burn off some of the more tender plants,” he said.

    “As climate change is already having an impact – we have to adapt….”…

    But as we know from met Office data, storms are not becoming more intense.

    Like

  67. According to the BBC, Fatih Birol is now an energy boss (he isn’t, in the normal use of those words):

    “COP28 ‘moment of truth’ for oil industry, says energy boss”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67445233

    The world’s oil and gas industry has been warned it faces a “moment of truth” at next week’s UN climate talks.

    Dr Fatih Birol, head of energy watchdog the International Energy Agency, was speaking as the IEA published a new report on the future of fossil fuels.

    He said the sector must choose between contributing to the climate crisis or “becoming part of the solution”.

    Last year fossil fuel companies were responsible for just 1% of global investment in renewable energy.

    Arguably the IEA isn’t an “energy watchdog” either – it’s a self-appointed climate change obsessed busybody, as is made clear by this paragraph:

    …The publication of this report just a week before the start of the UN climate summit, also known as COP28, is no coincidence. The IEA will want to put pressure on governments attending the conference to get an agreement on reducing the use of fossil fuels….

    Like

  68. Whilst not agreeing that you can tar everyone (or even the majority) with the same brush according to when they were born, the National Trust typify the kind of mentality that is so prevalent nowadays. Obviously, some moron at the National Trust has been given the use of climate models as a Christmas or Birthday present and is happily punching away numbers at his or her desk, predicting the ‘settled science’ future of various NT sites and then getting the compliant media to disseminate this pseudoscientific garbage for public consumption. And who is the gardener to opine so expertly on the complex issue of climate change by noting that his plants are being affected by salt spray?

    These words, though harsh, must be said. It is way past time to push back against these retards because they are leading us along the path to a hellish Unenlightenment:

    “GenX and GenY are between 25 and 56 years of age, and they are, collectively, the most ignorant, uneducated imbeciles in hundreds of years – intellectually and ethically, and with some notable exceptions, they are a waste of skin.

    Harsh words, but justified. Why? Because GenX+Y have rejected the Age of Reason that delivered us from The Dark Ages of fearful fantasies and superstitions, and plunged us again into that dark pit of fear and hatred – with their false, Pavlovian rejections of any concept that challenges their ill-conceived ideas, enabled by their abysmal “artsy” educations, lack of any scientific knowledge, and instant, hateful condemnation of any idea that does not fit their pathetically ignorant templates.

    Ideas can no longer be debated rationally by well-educated people – they must be shouted down by this Generation of Imbeciles, accompanied by vicious, hateful rhetoric and attempts to vilify, injure and cancel their opponents.”

    https://allanmacrae.substack.com/p/death-of-the-age-of-reason-genx-geny

    Like

  69. “Russia is holding next year’s global climate summit ‘hostage’ ”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-hold-next-years-global-climate-summit-cop29-hostage/

    Think the location of this year’s global climate summit is contentious? Wait till you hear about the next one.

    When COP28 kicks off next week in the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face pressure to show its fossil fuel interests won’t capture negotiations.

    But at least the conference has a host. Next year’s summit, COP29, is currently homeless.

    That’s because regional tensions have created a deadlock. The conference is meant to take place in Eastern Europe, but Russia is preventing any European Union country from hosting, while warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking each other, and no one has been able to agree on a way forward.

    The result: COP29 is in limbo, and global efforts to secure a liveable future risk being left leaderless. If no one picks up the baton, the current host may remain in place until COP30 starts in 2025 — likely leaving the UAE in charge of talks on major decisions like a new finance goal and getting governments to commit to post-2030 climate targets.

    Officially, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they don’t believe that Bulgaria or any other EU country will be impartial in running COP29,” said Julian Popov, the environment minister for Bulgaria, which has offered to host next year’s climate summit.

    But behind closed doors, “their argument is that they are being blocked by EU countries about various things in relation to the war against Ukraine,” he told POLITICO in an interview.

    “They are,” he said, “basically retaliating.”

    The dispute now risks disrupting both COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the issue before departing Dubai in mid-December…

    …The COP climate summits typically rotate among the United Nations’ five regional groups, and next year is Eastern Europe’s turn. The 23-country Eastern Europe group has to decide on the host country by consensus…

    …Then there’s the issue of preparation. COP locations are usually chosen well in advance — the UAE was announced as host in 2021, and COP30 will take place in Brazil — to allow host cities to ready themselves for the arrival of tens of thousands of delegates.

    The host country usually, but not always, also takes on the COP presidency, which plays a crucial role in leading negotiations before, during and after the summit.

    “We still don’t know who will run the process next year,” Popov said. “This is damaging the whole COP process and will inevitably have a negative impact on the quality of negotiations.”

    Among the key issues to be settled at COP29 is a new financial target for funding climate action in developing countries from 2025 onward. Ahead of COP30, countries are meant to submit a new round of climate pledges, including targets to reduce emissions by 2035.

    “You really need months of diplomacy in advance to set these COPs up for success,” Evans said. …

    Like

  70. “The charity’s climate and science adviser Seán Maxwell said Mount Stewart would “not look like it does now” in a century.”

    This guy is not much of a gardener, though I guess he is on board as a “climate and science adviser”. No garden anywhere would look like it does now in a 100 years. Based on our own gardening experience the garden changes significantly in as little as five years. Plants grow and die. Renovation is a continuing and constant need. If you are not adapting you are not gardening. Though I suppose rewilding is always an option!

    Liked by 1 person

  71. Wonder were the original money came from – ““Mount Stewart: Renowned gardens already affected by climate change”

    “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Stewart#:~:text=Mount%20Stewart%20is%20a%2019th-century%20house%20and%20garden,seat%20of%20the%20Stewart%20family%2C%20Marquesses%20of%20Londonderry.

    “The marriage also brought in much of the Vane-Tempest property, including land and coal mines in County Durham. Wynyard Park, Co. Durham was redesigned in the Neo-classical style. The couple bought Seaham Hall, also in County Durham, and then later bought Holdernesse House on London’s Park Lane. This was later renamed Londonderry House.”

    Answer coal.

    Like

  72. dfhunter,

    Oh yes, the family’s fortune was built on the sweat of Durham coal miners.

    Like

  74. It’s ramping up nicely now:

    “World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief
    Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop dawdling’ and act before crucial summit in Dubai”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/24/un-top-climate-official-simon-stiell-cop-28-dubai

    …Stiell said it was still possible to cut greenhouse gas emissions enough to stay within the crucial limit, but that further delay would be dangerous.

    “Every year of the baby steps we’ve been taking up to this point means that we need to be taking … bigger leaps with each following year if we are to stay in this race,” he said. “The science is absolutely clear.”

    The fortnight-long Cop28 talks will start this Thursday in Dubai, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a major oil and gas-producing country. Scores of world leaders, senior ministers and officials from 198 countries will be in attendance, along with an estimated 70,000 delegates, making it the biggest annual conference of the parties (Cop) yet held under the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change.

    The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to attend, and King Charles will give the opening speech, along with the UN secretary general, António Guterres, and the UAE president, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The pope will also be there, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and an invitation has been extended to Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria….

    70,000 delegates? Seriously? And al-Assad? Human rights abusers and murderous tyrants welcome!

    Like

  76. “COP28: UAE planned to use climate talks to make oil deals”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331

    Hilarious. Justin Rowlatt doesn’t seem to think so:

    The United Arab Emirates planned to use its role as the host of UN climate talks as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals, the BBC has learned.

    Leaked briefing documents reveal plans to discuss fossil fuel deals with 15 nations.

    The UN body responsible for the COP28 summit told the BBC hosts were expected to act without bias or self-interest.

    The UAE team did not deny using COP28 meetings for business talks, and said “private meetings are private”.

    It declined to comment on what was discussed in the meetings and said its work has been focused on “meaningful climate action”.

    The documents – obtained by independent journalists at the Centre for Climate Reporting working alongside the BBC – were prepared by the UAE’s COP28 team for meetings with at least 27 foreign governments ahead of the COP28 summit, which starts on 30 November.

    They included proposed “talking points”, such as one for China which says Adnoc, the UAE’s state oil company, is “willing to jointly evaluate international LNG [liquefied natural gas] opportunities” in Mozambique, Canada and Australia.

    The documents suggest telling a Colombian minister that Adnoc “stands ready” to support Colombia to develop its fossil fuel resources.

    There are talking points for 13 other countries, including Germany and Egypt, which suggest telling them Adnoc wants to work with their governments to develop fossil fuel projects….

    Liked by 1 person

  77. It’s good to see (and I mean this seriously, not sarcastically) that President Biden (or perhaps his advisors) understand(s) which priorities are most important:

    “Joe Biden will not attend the Cop28 climate meeting in Dubai, US official says
    US president is balancing the demands of a Middle East war and a presidential campaign expected to heat up in January”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/27/joe-biden-not-attending-cop28-summit-dubai-why-presidential-campaign

    Also:

    …Xi Jinping of China is not expected to attend….

    70,000 delegates expected to attend. But not the leaders of the two countries who between them are responsible for almost half of the world’s GHG emissions on an ongoing basis. What a farce. It looks as though it’s going to be even more pointless than usual.

    Like

  78. “China’s coal addiction puts spotlight on its climate ambitions before Cop28
    Power shortages in recent years have tested country’s commitment to cutting reliance on coal-fired energy”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/china-coal-addiction-spotlight-climate-ambitions-cop28

    China’s addiction to building new coal-fired power plants is becoming increasingly entrenched, even as the country is on track to reach peak CO2 emissions before its 2030 target.

    As climate officials from around the world prepare to meet in the United Arab Emirates for Cop28, many are hoping that the recent joint climate agreement between the US and China, released days before Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met in California, can lay the groundwork for positive commitments at the UN’s climate conference.

    The last major breakthrough involving China at Cop was at Cop26 in Glasgow, in 2021. At that conference, China pledged CO2 emissions would peak by 2030. Xi said that China would “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects”.

    But 2021 was also the year in which severe power outages blighted many parts of China, leading to rationing, closed factories and cold homes as local authorities struggled to cope with sudden shortages of energy.

    In 2022, further energy crunches in south-west China underlined the importance of stable energy supplies to Chinese officials. That has put the commitment to reduce reliance on coal-fired energy in direct tension with the new emphasis on energy security.

    “Chinese officials view coal as the primary guarantee of energy security,” said Anders Hove, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “For this reason, it is now considered sensitive to criticise the country’s present investments in coal.”

    Local governments in China approved 50.4GW of new coal power in the first half of 2023. And in 2022, construction started on 50GW of coal capacity, an amount six times as large as the rest of the world combined….

    But a small new coal mine in Cumbria will tip the world’s climate over the edge, or something.

    Liked by 1 person

  79. Having been warming up for a while, the BBC is going for it now ahead of COP 28:

    “Toxic gas putting millions at risk in Middle East, BBC finds”

    Toxic pollutants released during gas flaring are endangering millions more people than previously feared, a BBC investigation suggests.

    Flaring – the burning of waste gas during oil drilling – is taking place across the Gulf, including by COP28 hosts the United Arab Emirates.

    New research suggests pollution is spreading hundreds of miles, worsening air quality across the entire region.

    It comes as the UAE hosts the UN’s COP28 climate summit on Thursday.

    The UAE banned routine flaring 20 years ago, but satellite images show it is continuing, despite the potential health consequences for its inhabitants and those in neighbouring countries.

    Analysis for BBC Arabic shows gasses are now spreading hundreds of kilometres across the region.

    Pollution from wells in Iraq, Iran and Kuwait were also analysed as part of the study. All of the countries involved either declined to comment or did not respond….

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67522413

    Liked by 1 person

  80. On and on it goes:

    “When sea levels rise, so does your rent”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-67418276

    “Climate change food calculator: What’s your diet’s carbon footprint?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46459714

    “Climate change: Four things you can do about your carbon footprint”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58171814

    “What is net zero and how are the UK and other countries doing?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58874518

    Not that the BBC is a climate alarmist campaigning organisation, you understand. Heavens, no. It’s a trusted and objective purveyor of news, nothing more.

    Like

  82. From today’s FT:

    Pressure mounts ahead of COP28 to dump fossil fuels
    Success at the UN summit in Dubai will be measured by whether a global deal can be reached on ending their use

    Hmm … some hope.

    Liked by 1 person

  83. And some hope regarding this too:

    “Former world leaders seek $25bn levy on oil states’ revenues to pay for climate damage
    Gordon Brown leads those signing letter to Cop28 and G20 presidents calling for levy to help fill ‘loss and damage’ fund”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/28/former-world-leaders-seek-25bn-levy-on-oil-states-revenues-to-pay-for-climate-damage

    The bumper revenues of oil-producing states should be subject to a $25bn levy to help pay for the impact of climate disasters on the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, a group of former world leaders and leading economists has said.

    Seventy international figures led by the former UK prime minister Gordon Brown signed a letter calling for the measure before a crucial UN climate summit, Cop28, that begins in Dubai on Thursday. The signatories include 25 former prime ministers or presidents.

    Such a levy would shave off only a small fraction of the bonanza that oil-producing countries have made in recent years, and would help to fill a fund for the “loss and damage” to poor countries afflicted by the impacts of the climate crisis.

    Brown told the Guardian: “The deadlock on climate finance has to be broken if Cop28 is to succeed. After more than a decade of broken promises, a $25bn oil and gas levy paid by the petrol states and proposed by the UAE as chair of Cop would kickstart finance for mitigation [reduction of greenhouse gas emissions] and adaptation in the global south.

    “But all the main historic and current emitters must come to the table with guarantees and grants if the $1tn a year needed for development and climate funding in the global south is to be raised.”

    The letter is being sent to the Cop28 president-designate, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also chief executive of Adnoc, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, and to the current G20 president, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil.

    Signatories include the former UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon; the former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark; the former president of Malawi Joyce Banda, and the former president of Chile Michelle Bachelet, as well as scores of leading economists….

    Like

  84. This strong focus on climate finance / ‘loss and damage’ is interesting. Go back to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – the forerunner of all the COPs – and there’s no mention of climate finance. The whole point was getting countries to cut their emissions.

    It might make sense if the deal was that ‘rich’ countries would pay ‘poor’ countries in return for their cutting their emissions. But it isn’t – it seems to be a totally separate issue from what surely should be the COPs’ central concern.

    In fact, a deal was tried once and seems to have been quietly forgotten. It happened in 2009 at the the end of the UN climate conference in Copenhagen (COP15) when in a non-binding side meeting the US (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) said the US would pay $100 billion p.a. to developing countries from 2020 – now erroneously regarded as a commitment made by ‘rich’ countries (the US was the sole developed country at meeting). Here’s an extract from her speech :

    ‘…the money is only on the table so long as fast-growing nations like China and India accept binding commitments that are open to international inspection and verification.’

    She added:

    ‘In the absence of an operational agreement that meets the requirements that I outlined, there will not be that financial agreement, at least from the United States. Without that accord, there won’t be the kind of joint global action from all of the major economies we all want to see, and the effects in the developing world could be catastrophic.’

    That makes logical sense. Unlike current climate finance rhetoric.

    Liked by 1 person

  85. An exciting headline, if you’re into that sort of thing, but where’s the substance?

    “Deal to keep 1.5C hopes alive is within reach, says Cop28 president
    Exclusive: Sultan Al Jaber says progress means ‘unprecedented outcome’ is possible”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/deal-to-keep-15c-hopes-alive-is-within-reach-says-cop28-president

    …Saudi Arabia has long been seen as an obstructive element in the annual conferences of the parties (Cops) under the UN framework convention on climate change.

    Al Jaber hinted that new commitments from the country were possible, after meetings when the government had shown “positivity, engagement, receptive to my cause and my call to actions … towards achieving the most ambitious climate action outcome at Cop28”….

    …There were still questions over how exactly to address the issue of fossil fuels in the final outcome of the two-week conference, he noted.

    Some countries want a “phase-out” of fossil fuels, while others are resisting. A compromise commitment to a “phase-down of unabated fossil fuels”, meaning a gradual reduction of coal, oil and gas that is used without carbon capture and storage technology, is also seen as possible by some.

    Al Jaber said: “I am inviting and incentivising and motivating all parties to engage in a collaborative manner to see and assess how we can include fossil fuel in the negotiated text, that will cater for consensus and common ground, while keeping 1.5C within reach.”…

    …Earlier this month, a compromise was reached among rich and poor countries over setting up a new fund for loss and damage – the rescue and rehabilitation of poor and vulnerable countries struck by climate disaster. However, the fund has yet to be filled, and both rich industrialised countries and emerging economies such as China and oil producer countries are expected to contribute.

    Al Jaber said he was hopeful of progress on this effort. “We will leave the parties to decide when we start seeing pledges,” he said.

    Al Jaber said he was “energised” but noted that “while I very much appreciate the momentum we have and the very solid traction we are all experiencing, there is still some chatter out there, if I can move things forward or not”.

    He urged countries not to stall agreement until the final days, which many poor countries accused rich countries of doing last year, at Cop27 in Egypt, to widespread anger. “I don’t want parties to keep their cards close to their chests until the last minute,” he said. “The earlier they open up and engage and collaborate, the more will be done.”…

    Sounds pretty limp to me.

    Like

  86. Meanwhile:

    “Most sponsors of Cop28 have not signed up to UN-backed net zero targets
    Firms including Bank of America have made no commitment to cut emissions in line with target system, analysis finds”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/most-sponsors-cop28-not-signed-up-to-un-net-zero-targets

    Most companies sponsoring the UN climate talks in Dubai are not committed to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions in line with globally recognised net zero targets, it has been revealed.

    Only one of the more than 20 sponsors of Cop28 has signed up to UN-backed net zero science-based targets, (SBTi), according to an analysis.

    The global accountancy firm EY, formerly Ernst and Young, which has been hired as the independent verifier of the climate record of all the sponsors, has also not signed up to the net zero target scheme….

    Like

  87. Unless they’re holding COP28 at a big sports stadium, how are 70,000 people supposed to ‘attend’? Maybe one appearance each at some much smaller venues 🤔

    Like

  88. oldbrew,

    They can all attend via Skype from their air conditioned hotel rooms. Oh wait, no, but this rather makes a mockery of flying them all thousands of miles in order to attend in person; they could have skyped from their offices back home! Yeah, but they’re THERE, in person, just a few miles away, and they can get free conference food and drink. That’s important dammit!

    Liked by 2 people

  89. If anyone had any doubts about the BBC being a campaigning organisation with regard to climate change, just read Justin Rowlatt’s latest effort:

    “COP28: Can a climate summit in an oil state change anything?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67557533

    You are going to be hearing a lot about COP28 over the next two weeks.

    [Don’t we just know it]

    The world’s most important climate meeting, beginning on Thursday, is being hosted in Dubai by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – one of the world’s top ten oil producers.

    COP28 will be the biggest gathering of world leaders of the year.

    King Charles III and Rishi Sunak will be there, along with dozens of other world leaders and some 70,000 other attendees.

    Hosting a climate conference in a petrostate was already controversial – but the BBC’s evidence that the UAE team planned to use climate talks ahead of COP28 to do oil and gas deals has heightened concerns.

    So, can a summit in one of the world’s richest oil states deliver meaningful action on climate change?

    Campaigner Greta Thunberg has said these UN climate summits are just “blah, blah, blah” – meaning all talk and no action.

    But if the COP process did not exist, we would certainly want something like it.

    Imagine for a moment that you are an alien visiting the Earth.

    You discover the planet faces a potential catastrophe caused by the actions of the people living there.

    The first thing that alien would say is: “You guys all need to get together and agree how to sort this out”….

    Like

  91. Hmm … THIS (dated yesterday) might prove to be a bit of a problem at COP28: India doubles down on right to increase climate emissions

    An extract:

    “There will be pressure again on those countries who use coal,” RK Singh, minister of power and new and renewable energy, said Nov. 6. “Our point of view is that we are not going to compromise with the availability of power for growth.”

    Public sector power companies are constructing about 27 GW of thermal plants — almost all coal — but this is insufficient, according to Singh. The country needs “at least 80 GW” of new capacity to meet future demand, he said.

    Mind you, I don’t suppose this will attract anything like the criticism that Sunak’s getting for his evil decision to bring two of our climate regulations into line with the EU’s. But of course we’re supposed to ne exercising ‘leadership’.

    Liked by 1 person

  92. The FT this morning:

    Keir Starmer to stress Labour’s green credentials at COP28 summit
    Opposition party leader will accuse Rishi Sunak of watering down efforts to hit net zero by 2050

    Presumably that means a Labour administration would reverse Sunak’s minor changes … hmm.

    Like

  93. Charles’s blathering at COP28 is featured prominently on the BBC News front page – it was top news for a time. It does not feature in the top ten most read articles. Number one is “Snow and ice across the UK as big freeze forecast.” Somewhat ironic, and pleasing to know that the BBC does not game its top ten most read chart to direct readers to what it wants them to read.

    I’ve no idea what Charles said, but I can guess.

    Like

  94. Jit,

    I believe, among other things, he expressed his disappointment at how far “we” are from where “we” need to be. I suspect in this case he wasn’t using the royal “we”, even though, if the cap fits…

    Like

  95. More good stuff from Francis Menton:

    No Amount Of Subsidies Will Ever Make A Wind/Solar Electricity System Economically Feasible

    His opening paragraph:

    ‘The COP 28 climate confab opened today in Dubai. Some 70,000 true believers in the energy transition are said to be gathering. And not one of them appears to be either willing or able to do the simple arithmetic that shows that this can’t possibly work.’

    IMO it’s a must read.

    Liked by 3 people

  96. Dubai?

    Francis Menton certainly isn’t buying it:

    “Of course consumers are never voluntarily going to pay $2 for energy that can be had for $1. Nor are investors ever going to invest to provide consumers the $2 energy when the consumers can go elsewhere for $1. As it becomes obvious that the whole LCOE “wind and solar are cheaper” thing is a transparent lie, all private money will exit the energy transition. The only possible way to get this wind/solar system built is government subsidies. Gigantic, massive government subsidies on a scale far greater than anything ever seen in human history. It’s a very safe bet that it will never happen.”

    But British energy consumers and taxpayers are, given no choice in the matter, as our government continues to pump in massive subsidies and impose ever increasing Green taxes upon us. Where does it end?

    Liked by 2 people

  97. “COP28 Has “Biggest Carbon Footprint” of Any Climate Summit”

    https://dailysceptic.org/2023/12/01/cop28-has-biggest-carbon-footprint-of-any-climate-summit/

    The original article, on which the Daily Sceptic’s piece is based, is in the Daily Telegraph (but behind a paywall):

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/30/uae-cop-has-biggest-carbon-footprint-of-any-climate-summit/

    COP28 will have the biggest carbon footprint in the history of the annual climate summit because the UAE has invited record numbers of people, experts have said.

    At least 400,000 people are expected to travel to Dubai for the two-week event, organisers claimed, the biggest attendance on record.

    This includes 97,000 official delegates, more than double Cop26 in Glasgow, the previous biggest of the summits….

    …Attendance at the annual summit has risen steadily in recent years, particularly as the presence of corporations and NGOs has grown.

    Chris Stark, the chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, recently told The Telegraph the conference was “too big” and had become more like a trade fair.

    Among this year’s attendees, Rishi Sunak, the King, Lord Cameron and US envoy John Kerry will all travel by private jet….

    Like

  98. While HRH, Sunak, Cameron, Starmer, Yousaf et al are sunning themselves at COP28, it’s freezing here in the UK, and this is where their efforts are leading us. As of now, electricity on the National Grid is made up as follows:

    Gas: 62.6%
    Coal: 2.3%
    Solar: 0%
    Wind: 2.8%
    Hydro: 1.9%
    Biomass:
    6.6%
    Nuclear: 11.5%
    Interconnectors: 11.4%

    It’s a hugely expensive shambles, and if that lot on the COP28 bandwagon have anything to do with it, it will only get worse.

    Liked by 2 people

  99. It’s fortunate that Rough was reopened, even though it is still running only at limited capacity, otherwise we would be facing blackouts, or even worse, the failure of the gas supply grid. All because of this ridiculous reliance upon wind and solar – not much use during a Dunkelflaute! It’s only sheer luck that the weather will turn after the weekend. Two weeks or more of cold, dry settled weather and the UK would be facing a serious energy crisis.

    “I’m proud of the actions our team has taken over the last 18 months, including our decision to bring Rough back online to underpin the UK’s energy security. However, we still have the lowest levels of energy storage of the world’s major economies, with the ability to store fewer than eight days of peak winter demand, and this leaves us susceptible to shocks in international markets.”

    https://eandt.theiet.org/2023/11/29/britains-largest-gas-storage-facility-switches-cold-weather-strains-supplies

    Liked by 1 person

  100. “COP28 host UAE to massively ramp up oil production, BBC learns”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67513901

    The country hosting COP28 climate talks aimed at cutting fossil fuel emissions is massively ramping up its own oil production, the BBC has learned.

    The United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm Adnoc may drill 42% more by 2030, according to analysts considered the international gold standard in oil market intelligence.

    Between 2023 and 2050, only Saudi Arabia is expected to produce more.

    Adnoc says projections show capacity to produce oil, not actual production.

    It said it had already clearly stated plans to boost its production capacity by 7% over the next four years.

    The firm said it was widely accepted that some oil and gas would be needed in decades ahead and that it was making its activities more climate-friendly, including by expanding into renewable energy….

    Like

  102. Oh my word, is reality dawning?

    “22 countries call for tripling of nuclear by 2050”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/02/day-three-uae-loss-and-damage

    Twenty-two countries have called for a tripling of nuclear energy by 2050 in order to meet net zero goals.

    John Kerry, the US’s climate envoy, defended the statement. “We are not making the argument to anybody that this is absolutely going to be a sweeping alternative to every other energy source,” he said.

    “But we know because the science and the reality of facts and evidence tell us that you can’t get to net zero 2050 without some nuclear. These are just scientific realities. No politics involved in this, no ideology involved in this.”…

    Of course, politics and ideology definitely infiltrate COP28 everywhere you look:

    …However, Bill McKibben’s campaign group 350.org were less enthusiastic. Masayoshi Iyoda, a Japan campaigner at the group, said: “There is no space for dangerous nuclear power to accelerate the decarbonization needed to achieve the Paris climate goal … it is nothing more than a dangerous distraction.

    “The attempt of a ‘nuclear renaissance’ led by nuclear industries’ lobbyists since the 2000s has never been successful – it is simply too costly, too risky, too undemocratic, and too time-consuming. We already have cheaper, safer, democratic, and faster solutions to the climate crisis, and they are renewable energy and energy efficiency.”…

    I think the above statement might contain a degree of mis/disinformation.

    Of interest, to me at least, is who signed the call for more nuclear energy:

    The signatories to the declaration were: Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Japan, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Sweden, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.

    Like

  103. It really is just a jamboree. What can 80,000+ people attending COP28 actually achieve? The more the people, the greater the distraction, the greater the GHG emissions. From that same Guardian piece:

    Biggest Cop ever

    For the first time at a Cop the UNFCCC, which organises the summits, has published the full list of participants in spreadsheet format, making them far easier to analyse.

    Carbon Brief have looked at the provisional figures, and found that 84,101 people are registered to attend, 3,074 of whom are attending virtually.

    The figures are provisional as more people will have registered than actually attend, but it is close to certain that this will be the biggest Cop ever in terms of number of participants. The final number or attendees will be released after the conference.

    For comparison, Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh last year hosted just under 50,000 delegates, while Cop1 in Berlin in 1995 only hosted 3,969.

    Like

  104. “Oil firms commit to major fossil fuel cut by 2050 at COP28”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67599925

    What an exciting headline for climate alarmists – except that 2050 is 26+ years away, and we’re told that the emergency, and the need for action, is now, certainly by 2030. Then there’s this ( a problem built into the whole COP process, and which formed a major part of my critique of the Paris Agreement):

    …However, there will be no penalties for missing targets and the promises are not binding….

    Liked by 1 person

  105. This looks like another just too bad to be true report, the release of which has been timed to coincide with COP28:

    “Extreme weather could shut down one in 12 hospitals worldwide, report warns
    Total of 16,245 hospitals at high risk by end of century unless fossil fuels phased out, analysts say”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/02/extreme-weather-could-shut-down-one-in-12-hospitals-worldwide-report-warns

    One in 12 hospitals worldwide are at risk of total or partial shutdown from extreme weather events without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, a new report warns.

    A total of 16,245 hospitals, twice as many as are currently at high risk, will be in this category by the end of the century without a change in pace, according to a report released on Saturday by Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), a climate risk analyst. It adds that a residential or commercial building with this level of risk would be considered uninsurable.

    The report is being published before health day at the Cop28 UN climate conference, being held in Dubai. Countries will be discussing how to mitigate the health impacts of climate breakdown, which include the spread of disease and the effects of extreme weather events.

    “Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world,” said Dr Karl Mallon, director of science and technology at XDI. “What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises.”…

    I confess that I had never heard of XDI, so had to look them up. If anyone is interested, they can be found here:

    https://xdi.systems/

    I never cease to be amazed how many businesses are thriving by bigging-up climate change. These must be the green jobs we’re always bening told about.

    Like

  106. Here’s the next instalment in the COP28 farce:

    “Lula’s bid to style himself climate leader at Cop28 undermined by Opec move
    Jonathan Watts
    Brazilian president’s plans to approve new fossil fuel projects sit awkwardly with pledge to meet 1.5C target”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/02/lula-climate-leader-cop28-brazil-undermined-by-opec-move

    The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has roared into Cop28 with a mega-delegation of more than 2,000 people and grand ambitions to address inequality and protect the world’s tropical forests.

    Lula, as he is known, said his country was leading by example: “We have adjusted our climate goals, which are now more ambitious than those of many developed countries. We have drastically reduced deforestation in the Amazon and will bring it to zero by 2030,” he said.

    But any pretensions he might have had to broader climate leadership on cutting fossil fuels were weakened on Thursday when his energy minister, Alexandre Silveira, chose the opening of the planet’s biggest environmental conference as the moment to announce that Brazil plans to align itself more closely with the world’s biggest oil cartel, Opec….

    Like

  107. Mark – thanks for that Paul Homewood/Telegraph link.

    Partial quote from Paul’s post –
    “In Germany today, for instance, wind and solar have been supplying no more then 5% of the country’s electricity for most of today. In the early evening tonight, coal and gas have were supplying three quarters of their power”

    I seem to recall the German Energiewende was held up as the way the UK Energy sector should follow by many vocal green/MSM/TV pundits, with many stories on how great it was going.

    Funny how we never hear on MSM how dire things are for the German people now.

    found this old 2020 link long winded but informative – https://www.iea.org/reports/germany-2020

    final partial quote from it –
    “As a result, security of natural gas supply is a top concern for the government, and diversification of gas supplies – including through the direct import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – will become more important. Notably, the increased use of natural gas in electricity generation, especially to meet peak electricity demand, will also increasingly tie electricity security to gas security.”

    Like

  108. dfhunter, I keep waiting for the whole Energiewende/Net Zero madness to crash and burn; surely those in charge have to wake up and see the light at some point?

    Like

  109. The Guardian/Observer catches up with Cliscep. We’ve been telling them this for long enough:

    “Greenhouse gas emissions soar – with China, US and India most at fault
    Satellite tracking data shows many countries and firms do not provide accurate figures”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/greenhouse-gas-emissions-soar-with-china-us-and-india-most-at-fault

    Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US, have produced the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions since 2015, when the Paris climate agreement was signed, new data has shown.

    Emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, have also risen, despite more than 100 countries signing up to a pledge to reduce the gas, according to data published on Sunday by the Climate Trace project.

    The data shows that countries and companies are failing to report their emissions accurately, despite obligations to do so under the Paris agreement….

    …Climate Trace uses satellite images and AI software to pinpoint the sources of emissions with a high degree of accuracy around the world, and has uncovered discrepancies between countries’ and companies’ reporting of emissions and their actual behaviour.

    The new data showed coal mines from China were responsible for a large proportion of the increase in methane emissions between 2021 and 2022….

    Well, we’ve been telling them about that reporting/measuring problem as well:

    How Do You Measure Hot Air?

    Liked by 1 person

  110. Mark

    Oh my word, is reality dawning?

    “22 countries call for tripling of nuclear by 2050”

    I switched on Radio 5 Live (well, clicked onto it on my iPhone) at exactly 8pm last night, to see if they were doing a commentary on the football from Newcastle. They weren’t and I got a short bulletin of the news instead. And I was really rather impressed to hear this very important changed factoid from COP about nuclear.

    Impressed that it made it through to the BBC without a moan from Bill McKibben and co, let alone ‘fact-checking’ from whomever.

    You may say I’m too easily impressed. I sometimes say that myself. But there it was.

    Like

  111. TikTok has at least fifteen people at COP28 in Dubai, half of them execs and half of them influencers. Here are six of the influencers:

    * Abdulaziz Ahmed Saleh Mohammed Hussein (@azlife.ae), UAE: Abdulaziz is a passionate culinary content creator who shares his daily activities and routines in addition to showcasing recipes for various dishes and reviewing restaurants and cafes.

    * Hisham Saleh Baeshen (@misho_baeshen), Saudi Arabia: Hisham is a leading culinary figure in the Arab world and specializes in bringing popular dishes to life to millions of followers.

    * Bryan Saúl Navarro Alonso (@solibolita), Mexico: With a diverse background as a former bureaucrat, lawyer, and financial specialist, Bryan is a Mexican content creator who loves to create relatable videos. His content ranges from lifestyle to comedic bits, to educational videos on climate change awareness.

    * Destinee Wray (@destineewrayy), Canada: Destinee is a natural hair advocate and self-taught makeup artist based in Toronto, Canada. As a hair and beauty content creator, she loves expressing herself through TikTok and creating content that inspires young girls to see beauty in their hair and embrace it.

    * Ana Beatriz Brito da Silva “Bia” (@magicardb), Brazil: Bia is a 21-year-old creative passionate about gastronomy. Since joining TikTok, she’s earned a gastronomy diploma and created hundreds of cooking and baking videos of her favorite dishes for her global online community.

    * Max Klymenko (@maxklymenko), UK: Max is a Ukrainian content creator and digital entrepreneur living in London. He’s a seasoned storyteller creating educational and entertaining videos about business, branding, careers, and global and social issues.

    URL:newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/advancing-our-commitment-to-sustainability-and-climate-literacy-at-cop-28

    Three cooks, a beauty consultant and two spivsentrepreneurs. Four of the six were flown in from far away.

    Why did you do that, TikTok?

    When it comes to making our planet an even better place, every action counts. Join our #ClimateAction campaign on TikTok and be part of the change by sharing your creativity and inspiring meaningful change.

    I see. Flying a cook, a beauty consultant and two entrepreneurs to Dubai makes the world a better place. Sorry I didn’t spot that. My bad.

    (Big thanks to whoever it was who posted a link to the COP28 PLOP here at CliScep a few days ago. There’s of lot of weirdness in it. E.g., would you assume that a database of people attending a supposedly science-driven climate summit would include very few people who describe themselves as ‘Influencer’, ‘Mentor’ or ‘Coach’? Think again.)

    Liked by 1 person

  112. PS: I googled to see whether John Vidal is at COP28 and was sad to find that he died in October. He was a very flawed journalist but he was an eco-bigwig (other descriptions are available) and I’m surprised that his death didn’t get more coverage. Or his life: he doesn’t even have his own Wiki page. RIP, you daft old thing.

    Like

  113. Oh dear….

    “Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels
    Exclusive: UAE’s Sultan Al Jaber says phase-out of coal, oil and gas would take world ‘back into caves’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels

    The president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, has claimed there is “no science” indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C, the Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting can reveal.

    Al Jaber also said a phase-out of fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

    The comments were “incredibly concerning” and “verging on climate denial”, scientists said, and they were at odds with the position of the UN secretary general, António Guterres.

    Al Jaber made the comments in ill-tempered responses to questions from Mary Robinson, the chair of the Elders group and a former UN special envoy for climate change, during a live online event on 21 November. As well as running Cop28 in Dubai, Al Jaber is also the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc, which many observers see as a serious conflict of interest….

    Liked by 2 people

  115. Jaime,

    I spotted your Substack article after I posted the above. I don’t seem to be able to comment or like your pieces, despite being registered (I’m sure – I’ve liked and commented in the past). I hope the WP curse hasn’t been passed on…

    Liked by 1 person

  116. I’ve noted that you’ve liked a few of my past articles Mark, and commented on some, so I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on now. But yes, let’s hope the Curse of WP is not spreading!

    Like

  119. Richard: for maybe the first time Al Gore agrees with you:

    “From the moment this absurd masquerade began, it was only a matter of time before his preposterous disguise no longer concealed the reality of the most brazen conflict of interest in the history of climate negotiations,” Mr. Gore said in an email.

    Liked by 2 people

  120. The whole thing is a total farce. Firstly, there IS no science which supports the notion that we can rapidly phase out fossil fuels and thus avoid ‘tipping over’ the threshold of 1.5C ‘dangerous warming’, at least no science that is worth its salt and is not politically motivated. Secondly, the media and the IPCC are deceiving us with the idea that 1.5C can be avoided – it almost certainly cannot, even according to the scientists’ own dodgy science. Many scientists now admit that 1.5C is unavoidable, but the media and the organisers of COP 28 still ply us with the deception that we can avert ‘climate catastrophe’ if only we commit to completely abandoning fossil fuels by this time next Friday. Myles Allen still dishonestly floats the notion that we can avoid 1.5C, yet he authored a paper recently which claimed that the eruption of Hunga Tonga increased the chance of exceeding 1.5C in the coming decades by 14%! They’re all clowns and COP28 is an international clown show and the biggest IPCC piss-take so far.

    Like

  121. It’s all about the science…:

    “COP28: ‘My religion inspires me to protect the environment'”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-67581447

    Of course we should protect the environment – you won’t find anyone who believes that more than I do. My frustration is with regard to the elision between “climate crisis”, “renewable energy”, “environmentally friendly”. Renewable energy, in very many cases indeed, is the antithesis of environmentally friendly.

    Like

  123. ‘… there IS no science which supports the notion that we can rapidly phase out fossil fuels and thus avoid ‘tipping over’ the threshold of 1.5C ‘dangerous warming’, at least no science that is worth its salt and is not politically motivated.’

    But Jaime, that cannot be so. Steve Pye, Associate Professor in Energy Systems at UCL no less assures us that the ‘ COP28 president is wrong – science clearly shows fossil fuels must go (and fast)’.

    He says:

    ‘A fair and orderly transition from fossil fuels must acknowledge the differing capacity of countries: developing countries are more economically dependent on fossil fuels and have less money to switch to cleaner technologies. Some investment in oil and gas will be needed for existing infrastructure. … Rich countries need to phase out fossil fuels now and raise the funding to help developing countries make the transition.’

    Looks good for China, India, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, etc. Not so good for us.

    And note Steven Carr’s comments.

    Liked by 1 person

  124. Robin,

    Interesting link, thank you. I note that the comments are going badly, and that the author hasn’t yet responded. Isn’t it getting a little tedious by now to be told, yet again, that eliminating fossil fuel use is an urgent requirement in developed countries, but that developing countries (which produce the vast majority of GHGs on an ongoing basis) should be allowed a “fair and orderly transition”?

    Well now, is it an urgent crisis, or isn’t it?

    Like

  125. Mark – thanks for that Guardian “Exclusive dated 3 dec” link to “live online event on 21 November”
    well worth the read & vid watch. wonder why It took so long to become an “Exclusive”?

    From the vid I would say Al Jaber made NO comments/responses to questions from Mary Robinson that were ill-tempered, he just asked the obvious questions.
    he just pointed out that she had no solutions to a world with no fossil fuels.

    Like

  126. Robin,

    Steve Pye is just typical of the cock-sure arrogant ‘experts’ who assure us that the science is clear and settled. It isn’t and his own paper shows that it isn’t. He boasts:

    “President Sultan Al Jaber is wrong. There is a wealth of scientific evidence demonstrating that a fossil fuel phase-out will be essential for reining in the greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. I know because I have published some of it.

    “Back in 2021, just before the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, my colleagues and I published a paper in Nature entitled Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5°C world. It argued that 90% of the world’s coal and around 60% of its oil and gas needed to remain underground if humanity is to have any chance of meeting the Paris agreement’s temperature goals.”

    If you go to his paper, it says:

    “In this Article, we extend the earlier 2015 work to estimate the levels of unextractable fossil fuel reserves out to 2100 under a 1.5 °C scenario (50% probability), using a 2018–2100 carbon budget of 580 GtCO2 (ref. 3).”

    But only three years earlier, in 2018, another study quoted the carbon budget for 1.5C as follows:

    “The models show a remaining 1.5C “carbon budget” from 2018 to 2100 of between -175 and 400 gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2). This range is consistent with estimates from the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report.”

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-scenarios-world-limit-warming-one-point-five-celsius-2100/

    If we take the median value, that’s about 290Gt, which is HALF of Pye’s 580Gt. So in just a few short years, the ‘science’ went from saying that we can only emit 290Gt of CO2 into the atmosphere before disaster to saying that we can burn TWICE as much fossil fuel before reaching 1.5C! In another 5 years, will they have doubled the 1.5C carbon budget again? Seeing as how we might have already blown the original by then, courtesy of India and China? So much for Pye’s ‘wealth of evidence’ demonstrating that a very rapid fossil fuel phase out is needed.

    Liked by 1 person

  127. Correction: the correct figure for comparison is 420Gt for a 66% ( vs. 580Gt for 50%) chance of avoiding 1.5C, but that’s still considerably more than the earlier median estimate of 290Gt.

    Like

  128. “COP28: Record number of fossil fuel delegates at climate talks”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67607289

    The number of delegates at this year’s UN climate talks who are also linked to fossil fuel producers has quadrupled since last year, campaigners say.

    Around 2,400 people connected to the coal, oil and gas industries have been registered for the COP28 climate talks.

    This record number is more than the total attendees from the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change.

    The jump is partly due to registration changes with attendees now required to be open about their employment….

    Like

  130. Jaime: you may be interested to note that the BBC reports this morning that the Head of UN talks hits back at climate denial claims.

    In total contrast, here’s my take on the whole issue:

    In its 2018 Special Report (‘on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’), the IPCC recommended (para. C1) that, to achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5ºC target, emissions should ‘decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030’. In 2010, global CO2 emissions were 34.2 gigatonnes (Gt). So they’d have to come down to about 18.8 Gt by 2030 to meet the target. But just three countries, China, India and Russia, already emit 17.3 Gt – and these countries are almost certain to increase their emissions over the next six years. Therefore, if the IPCC’s recommendation is accurate and as the other 194 countries in the world will certainly emit well over 1.5 Gt by 2030, the 1.5ºC target is unachievable – unless of course China, India and Russia (and other major, mainly ‘developing’, economies) radically change their energy policies – and do so now.

    Liked by 2 people

  131. Robin,

    Al Jaber’s attempt to ‘hit back’ at claims of climate denial is hopelessly garbled and nonsensical. He is obviously being leaned on heavily to disown his very clear statements about ‘the science’ and he cannot do that, in all earnestness, so comes out with meaningless phrases like “We very much believe and respect the science.” A bit sad really.

    Like

  132. Further to my comment above, the IPCC Special Report also says that to limit ‘global warming to below 2°C’ emissions must ‘decline by about 25% by 2030’ – i.e. to 25.7 Gt. Yet adding the emissions of five other countries that are unlikely to cut their emissions within the next six years (Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea and Saudi Arabia) and assuming the current emissions of the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, the UK and International Shipping and Aviation – currently totalling 10 Gt – can be halved by 2030 (a big assumption), brings the total to about 26 Gt. In other words, the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2°C’ ambition is – without huge and unlikely emission cuts by developed and in particular developing countries – also unachievable.

    Liked by 1 person

  135. “Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels to hit record high
    Projected rate of warming has not improved in past two years, analysis shows”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/05/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-record

    Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record levels again in 2023, as experts warned that the projected rate of warming had not improved over the past two years.

    The world is on track to have burned more coal, oil and gas in 2023 than it did in 2022, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project, pumping 1.1% more planet-heating carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a time when emissions must plummet to stop extreme weather from growing more violent.

    The finding comes as world leaders meet in Dubai for the fraught Cop28 climate summit. In a separate report published on Tuesday, Climate Action Tracker (CAT) raised its projections slightly for future warming above the estimates it made at a conference in Glasgow two years ago…

    It’s going well, then…

    Like

  137. Robin,

    You’d think he would at least make a guest appearance on such an important thread, if only to claim that Al Jaber has walked back on his words.

    Like

  139. Jaime: not only is that Con still open but I’ve added a few new comments – particularly responses to Hon Wai Lai

    Liked by 1 person

  140. Jaime: You should go back to the Con and have a look at what Hon Wai Lai and Robert Tulip have to say. They’re quite interesting.

    Like

  141. Robin, Robert Tulip, even as he defends Al Jaber for saying what he did, is a geoengineering nutter, who thinks that emissions reductions are never going to be enough to cool down our overheated planet:

    “There was nothing nonsensical in Al Jaber’s claims. He did not walk them back. You are just continuing the political misrepresentation of what he actually said, as I already explained in my previous comment in this discussion. Hansen does support emission reduction, as you note, but the key argument in his paper is that the enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature through intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. That means solar geoengineering. If anyone is guilty of “following gurus” it is the acolytes of Michael Mann with his absurd arguments for the potential for net zero emissions to create a stable climate in the absence of any action to increase planetary brightness. Mann’s immediate attack on Hansen following the publication of his groundbreaking paper indicated a basic lack of comprehension of climate science and especially the essential benefits of higher albedo. It is important to note that arguments that contradict a prevailing false consensus will naturally be caveated to enable publication.”

    Apparently, he thinks that modern global temperature has greatly exceeded global mean temperatures reached throughout the Holocene, including the Holocene thermal maximum, the Roman Warm period and the Medieval warm Period and that only pumping vast amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere now will save us from Thermageddon. He’s just as deluded as the carbon reduction fantasists.

    Like

  142. “Carbon pricing would raise trillions needed to tackle climate crisis, says IMF
    Traditionally unpopular carbon taxes could be achieved with regulatory compliance, IMF head tells Cop 28”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/07/carbon-pricing-would-raise-trillions-needed-to-tackle-climate-crisis-says-imf

    Diverting the trillions of dollars by which the world subsidises fossil fuel production each year, and putting an implicit price on carbon emissions, would generate the vast amounts of cash needed to tackle the climate crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said.

    Governments have been put off explicitly pricing carbon by the potential unpopularity of new carbon taxes, which have become favourite targets of anti-climate politicians and parties around the world, from the US and Australia to Europe and the UK.

    Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, said it was possible to achieve the same result – of making high-carbon activities reflect their true costs to society – using regulation, and by cutting the bad subsidies that encourage fossil-fuel use.

    “We have been slow on a very important policy thought, which is the incentive for investors by still tolerating high levels of fossil-fuel subsidies,” she told the Guardian in an interview. “And [the world has made this worse] by being still fairly slow on introducing carbon pricing, and giving a trajectory for this carbon price upward.”…

    I see two problems with this. First, the claim that fossil fuels are heavily subsidised is dubious at best. It certainly isn’t true in the UK. Second, it’s the poor that will end up paying. Their lives will be made incalculably worse for no measurable benefit. I suppose the only positive aspect of the article is that it recognises that all this nonsense will cost trillions (though it almost certainly under-estimates exactly how many trillions – globally it must run into hundreds, if not thousands of trillions, given that net zero in the UK looks likely to cost £3 trillion).

    Like

  143. Robin, I’ve left a brief comment in reply to Robert Tulip and now expect the typical ‘denier!’ response, if any. I know, ‘when two tribes go to war’ – the decarbonisation fanatics and the geoengineering fanatics – one should probably just leave them to it, but it’s exasperating watching them slog it out, using Al Jaber’s comments as a convenient excuse.

    Liked by 1 person

  145. Mark: there’s a third problem with that IMF proposal. Can you imagine China, India, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia etc. having the slightest interest in agreeing to it?

    Liked by 1 person

  146. And here’s another amusing – but deadly serious – article. An extract:

    ‘We hardly make any difference. In fact our climate emissions are so piddly, so absolutely irrelevant, so inconsequential … they barely register.
    …

    It’s pointless. Utterly self defeating and ultimately suicidal.

    Mandating Net Zero by 2050 in a world where in the last eight years China has emitted more CO2 than the UK has since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, seems, to me at least, utterly senseless.
    …

    So if our contribution to the world’s carbon emissions is so tiny, and the effects of pursuing a Net Zero strategy so catastrophic for our people and our economy. Why are we doing it?

    Well, apparently, we are leading by example. Inspiring the world.

    But that doesn’t make sense. It’s like if in the 1980s the UK had not only adopted a policy of Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament. But had used the nukes we already had, to bomb our own cities, just to remind the rest of the world that nuclear weapons were, you know, bad.’

    Liked by 2 people

  147. Robin,

    Good to see somebody else comparing (or rather contrasting) the MAD philosophy of the Cold War years to unilateral Net Zero. With the former we did not unleash nukes because it would have meant mutually assured destruction of ourselves and the enemy, As I said elsewhere, Net Zero is Unilateral Assured Destruction. And it is not a mistake; it is a punishment beating meted out by the rabid extreme Left, for our sin of being the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, and exporting it to the world. If we had not done that, China would not now be emitting in 8 years more CO2 than Great Britain has emitted since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. It’s OUR fault and thus we must commit national suicide as recompense.

    “This isn’t a quirk of fate. The fault only of a mismanaged, squandered Brexit. The inevitable ups and downs of history. The ebb and flow of Empires. Our politicians did this, through the choices they have made, the interests they have served, and issues they have prioritised.

    Net Zero by 2050 is an economic suicide note, an anti human act of catastrophic self harm. A senseless, happy clappy self destruct button.

    According to the narrative, we are a uniquely sinful nation.

    The stain of our crimes seeping through history, passed down to the current generation through the magical transference of ‘colonialism’. A fantastical mechanism, by which the guilt of our nation’s past misdeeds, somehow transcends time, and is bestowed upon our wicked children, in the present.

    And no level of contrition will ever be enough to wipe away those sins.

    It’s increasingly clear that for some, the pain of Net Zero represents nothing less than rightful reparations, which we must render unto Gaia. It appears that for them the inevitable suffering of the de-growth policies they demand, is not a side effect, it’s the whole point.”

    Liked by 1 person

  148. Jaime: comments on that Con article are now closed. You didn’t get a response.

    Like

  150. Jaime, you say: ‘Good to see somebody else comparing (or rather contrasting) the MAD philosophy of the Cold War years to unilateral Net Zero‘.

    True. But, as the author points out, there’s a difference: in the 1980s we didn’t drop nukes on our own cities to demonstrate to the world how horrid they are. Yet what we’re doing re Net Zero is exactly the equivalent of that.

    Like

  151. Robin,

    That’s why Net Zero was falsely spun by politicians and Greens as an economic, social and moral ‘opportunity’, not a weapon of mass destruction which in reality is what it is. It is why politicians spun Net Zero as ‘setting an example’ when in reality what they meant was ‘being made an example of’.

    Liked by 1 person

  152. It seems that President Maduro of Venezuela is confident that fossil fuels have a future:

    “Brazil deploys troops to Venezuela border”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67645018

    Brazil says that it is deploying troops along its border with Venezuela after the Venezuelan government announced plans to incorporate an area controlled by Guyana into its territory.

    The oil-rich Essequibo region has been in dispute since the 19th Century when Guyana was a British colony.

    Venezuela renewed its land claims after offshore oil and gas reserves were discovered a few years ago.

    Tensions have been rising since a referendum on Sunday in Venezuela.

    More than 95% of voters are said to have supported the government’s claim to Essequibo.

    Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro has since asked the state oil company to issue extraction licenses there and proposed that the National Assembly pass a bill to make the area part of Venezuela….

    Like

  154. Good luck with that:

    “Canada’s fossil fuel firms will need to cut emissions by at least 35% by 2030
    Justin Trudeau’s government plans to limit emissions through a national cap-and-trade system, a policy first proposed in 2021”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/07/canada-fossil-fuel-emissions-cut

    Canada will require its fossil fuel industry to cut its emissions between 35% to 38% below 2019 levels starting in 2030, it was announced on Thursday.

    The prime minister Justin Trudeau’s government plans to limit emissions from the oil and gas sector through a national cap-and-trade system which he first proposed in his 2021 election campaign, according to the policy announcement.

    “Every sector of Canada’s economy must do its part to combat climate change and build a safe, prosperous, and healthy future for Canadians,” said Canada’s environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, in a statement made from the Cop28 UN climate conference in Dubai. He added: “All sectors of our economy need to reduce their emissions and that includes oil and gas companies.”…

    Like

  155. Trudeau is going to have a fight on his hands.
    Alberta has passed its Sovereignty Act which is intended to empower its legislature to block edicts from Ottawa which it deems harmful to the province.

    Liked by 1 person

  156. “‘Leave No Stone Unturned’ in Gas Exploration, Norway Tells Industry”

    https://www.oedigital.com/news/509938-leave-no-stone-unturned-in-gas-exploration-norway-tells-industry

    Norway still has vast proven natural gas resources without development plans, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said on Wednesday, urging exploration companies to find ways of producing it despite technological challenges.

    As this year’s COP28 U.N. climate talks focuses on the first global agreement to phase out fossil fuel use, Norway argues it will keep producing oil and gas, which it says has fewer emissions during production compared with others, as long as there is demand and output will naturally ebb from early 2030.

    Natural gas resources equating to some 860 billion standard cubic metres (bcm) are trapped in so-called tight reservoirs with low permeability in Norwegian offshore territory, according to NPD estimates.

    However, production from tight reservoirs is frequently only profitable if the development is based on tie-backs to existing infrastructure with a long production horizon, the NPD said in a statement.

    But time is of the essence in producing these resources before the end of the lifetime of the infrastructure they are tied to, said Arne Jacobsen an assistant NPD director.

    “We need to ensure that these values are not lost, and that the companies are doing enough to produce the difficult volumes as well,” Jacobsen added.

    Companies should work together and “leave no stone unturned” to determine if it is possible to produce remaining resources profitably with existing technology, he said.

    “We encourage the companies to think outside the box and work across fields – and thereby achieve potential economies of scale,” Jacobsen added….

    Like

  157. “Opec rails against fossil fuel phase-out at Cop28 in leaked letters
    Oil cartel warns ‘pressure may reach a tipping point’ and that ‘politically motivated campaigns put our prosperity’ at risk”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/08/opec-rails-against-fossil-fuel-phase-out-at-cop28-in-leaked-letters

    The Opec oil cartel has warned its member countries with “utmost urgency” that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences” at Cop28, in leaked letters seen by the Guardian.

    The letters noted that a “fossil fuels phase out” remains on the negotiating table at the UN climate summit and urges the oil states to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, ie fossil fuels, rather than emissions”.

    The news agencies Bloomberg and Reuters also reported the news on Friday, saying multiple independent sources had confirmed the documents were genuine, and that Opec had declined to comment. The Guardian has not confirmed the authenticity of the documents and Opec did not respond to the Guardian’s request for comment.

    The letters suggest the depth of Opec’s fear that Cop28 could provide a turning point against oil and gas, which they say “put our people’s prosperity and future at risk”.

    Identical letters dated 6 December and signed by Haitham al-Ghais, the Kuwaiti oil executive and Opec secretary general, were sent to the 13 members of Opec, which include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Nigeria. These countries own 80% of global oil reserves and produced about 40% of the world’s oil over the last decade….

    Like

  159. “Big meat and dairy lobbyists turn out in record numbers at Cop28
    Food and agriculture firms have sent three times as many delegates to the climate summit as last year”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/09/big-meat-dairy-lobbyists-turn-out-record-numbers-cop28

    With 90,000+ people in attendance, I would suggest that just about every conceivable group of interested parties has sent three times as many delegates as on previous occasions. It’s really quite staggering how many emissions have been… er, emitted, in the name of reducing emissions.

    Lobbyists from industrial agriculture companies and trade groups have turned out in record numbers at Cop28, with three times as many delegates representing the meat and dairy industry as last year.

    Representatives are present from some of the world’s largest agribusiness companies – such as the meat supplier JBS, the fertiliser giant Nutrien, the food giant Nestlé and the pesticide company Bayer – as well as powerful industry lobby groups.

    Meat and dairy are particularly well-represented with 120 delegates, but an analysis of the list of delegates by DeSmog shows that the number of lobbyists representing the interests of agribusiness more broadly have more than doubled since 2022 to reach 340.

    In addition, the analysis reveals that more than 100 delegates have travelled to Dubai as part of country delegations, which grants privileged access to diplomatic negotiations. This number is up from 10 in 2022.

    The last point is an interesting one. The vast majority of the 90,000 hangers-on never get anywhere near a negotiation. So what are they doing there?

    Like

  160. George Monbiot’s take. He’s half-right (as is so often the case):

    “Cop28 is a farce rigged to fail, but there are other ways we can try to save the planet
    George Monbiot”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/09/cop28-rigged-fail-save-planet-climate-summit-fossil-fuel

    Let’s face it: climate summits are broken. The delegates talk and talk, while Earth systems slide towards deadly tipping points. Since the climate negotiations began in 1992 more carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels has been released worldwide than in all preceding human history. This year is likely to set a new emissions record. They are talking us to oblivion.

    Throughout these Conference of the Parties (Cop) summits, fossil fuel lobbyists have swarmed the corridors and meeting rooms. It’s like allowing weapons manufacturers to dominate a peace conference. This year, the lobbyists outnumber all but one of the national delegations. And they’re not the only ones: Cop28 is also heaving with meat and livestock lobbyists and reps from other planet-trashing industries. What should be the most important summit on Earth is treated like a trade fair.

    It’s not surprising that the two decisive measures these negotiations should have delivered at the outset – agreements to leave fossil fuels in the ground and to end most livestock farming – have never featured in the final outcome of any Cop summit. Nor should we be astonished that these agreements favour non-solutions such as carbon capture and storage, whose sole purpose is to provide an excuse for inaction.

    The appointment of Sultan Al Jaber as president of Cop28 could be seen as this fiasco’s denouement. His day job is chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc. Adnoc is now planning a massive expansion of its oil and gas operations. Before the meetings began, Al Jaber was planning to use them as a lobbying opportunity to sell his company’s products to delegates. In arguing with people calling for more effective action, he recited classic fossil fuel industry tropes, including that old favourite: if we were to phase out fossil fuels, we’d go back to living in caves. Fossil fuels present the real threat to civilisation. There have been some uninspiring presidents of the international climate summits, but none so manifestly unsuited to the role.

    Perhaps it’s unsurprising that, of 27 summits completed so far, 25 have been abject failures, while two (1997’s Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement, in 2015) have been half-successes. If any other process had a 3.7% success rate, it would be abandoned in favour of something better. But the world’s governments carry on doing the same thing in the expectation of different results. You could almost imagine they wanted to fail….

    Like

  161. More than 90,000 flocked to Dubai to preach about climate change… But the truth is the race to Net Zero is slowing to a crawl – according to Andrew Neil in an overview of COP28 in the Mail this morning.

    Like

  162. Hello Robin,
    Even while slowing to a crawl it still has enormous power for wealth destruction/transfer, misallocation of resources, and complete inversion of traditional political allegiancies. For example, here in the UK the once pro-labour Labour Party failed to oppose the government’s Zero Emissions Mandate. As this link (https://www.netzerowatch.com/labour-zero-emission-mandate/) from Net Zero Watch says,
    “Why didn’t a single Labour MP vote against the Government’s Zero Emission Mandate, when all the evidence shows it will hurt the poorest the most? … The metropolitan progressive elite put paid to the Labour Party.”

    Regards, John.

    Liked by 2 people

  163. If the BBC (or anyone else) thinks that Russia under Putin has ever been interested in climate change, they are IMO sadly deluded:

    “How the war changed Russia’s climate agenda”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67637803

    Ahead of the UN’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai, Russia spoke against the “phasing out” of fossil fuels, while its recently updated climate doctrine makes no mention of fossil fuels and their impact on climate change.While there is a broad scientific consensus that gas emissions from fossil fuels need to be drastically reduced, Russia marginally upped its oil and coal production in 2022. In further evidence of Russia playing spoiler to spite the West, the Kremlin is blocking EU countries from hosting the COP29 summit scheduled for 2024, according to Reuters. …

    … the lack of government enthusiasm, due to oil and gas industry lobbying, has meant that most climate finance initiatives are “either in their infancy or have been frozen after the war due to a lack of funding”…

    Like

  164. Oops:

    “Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 after fraught negotiations
    Climate activists likely to be concerned by another fossil fuel-reliant country taking over summit presidency”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/09/azerbaijan-host-cop29-fraught-negotiations

    Azerbaijan has been announced as the host of next year’s climate summit after fraught negotiations.

    Under UN rules it was eastern Europe’s turn to take over the rotating presidency but the groups need to unanimously decide on the host. Russia had blocked EU countries and Azerbaijan and Armenia were blocking each other’s bids.

    Onlookers were beginning to worry about whether a country could be agreed that would be able to stump up the money and facilities needed to host such a large conference. But Armenia retracted its bid and agreed to back Azerbaijan.

    Climate activists are likely to react with concern to the news, given the perception already that Cops have been partly captured by fossil fuel interests. Much like this year’s host, the country of 10 million people on the border of eastern Europe and western Asia relies economically on fossil fuels: oil and gas production accounted for nearly half of Azerbaijan’s GDP and more than 92.5% of its export revenue last year, according to the US government’s International Trade Administration.

    Civil society organisations have also said Azerbaijan has a poor record on human rights. On the Freedom Index, a ranking by a US-based NGO, the country is ranked as “not free”, with a score of 9/100 on political rights and civil liberties….

    Is it possible for the COP process to become any more farcical?

    Liked by 2 people

  165. According to THIS ARTICLE in the Guardian, IPCC scientists, dismayed at ‘the slow pace of climate action’, believe the answer is for scientists to be authorised to make policy prescriptions and (potentially) to oversee implementation.

    Worth reading in full.

    An extract:

    Yamina Saheb, the lead author of a chapter in AR6, said: “I would like to see a situation where scientists make recommendations and then you track them. You ask governments to sign off on what they will do and then you evaluate how much progress they have made.”

    Hmm… hard to imagine the Chinese government being very keen on that.

    Like

  167. From the FT this afternoon:

    ‘COP28 draft agreement omits references to phaseout of fossil fuels

    Document favours reducing consumption instead, but almost 200 countries yet to agree final text‘

    Oh dear.

    Liked by 2 people

  168. It’s only stupid countries like the UK who have set Phaseout to maximum by 2050, where our national press echoes the call by mad scientists for ‘more power’. I guess that’s the benefits of white privilege and colonialism.

    Like

  169. “Is this moment it all falls apart?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-67674841

    Justin Rowlatt on the BBC rolling commentary at 4.25pm today

    With the hours ticking down towards the deadline here at the UN climate conference in Dubai, it looked like it was virtually in the bag.

    Negotiators and campaigners alike were saying the world was the closest it had ever been to a deal to get rid of the fossil fuels – the main drivers of climate change.

    Yes, a few countries were holding out – notably oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, and including Iraq and Bolivia. But it looked like the majority of the world was getting on board with the plan.

    And if anyone could persuade the Saudi’s to sign up, surely it was their neighbours, the United Arab Emirates.

    Except it didn’t go to plan.

    It now looks like the “transformational” deal the COP28 president promised would rival the landmark agreement in Paris in 2015 could be evaporating in the desert sun.

    Like

  170. The Guardian seems to be no more optimistic:

    “Cop28 draft climate deal criticised as ‘grossly insufficient’ and ‘incoherent’
    Text now being considered by governments calls for ‘reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/11/cop28-draft-agreement-calls-for-fossil-fuel-cuts-but-avoids-phase-out

    A draft deal to cut global fossil fuel production is “grossly insufficient” and “incoherent” and will not stop the world from facing dangerous climate breakdown, according to delegates at the UN’s Cop28 summit.

    The text put forward by the summit presidency after 10 days of wrangling was received with concern and anger by many climate experts and politicians, though others welcomed elements of the draft including the first mention in a Cop text of reducing fossil fuel production.

    Some countries are despairing that the text does not require a full phase-out of fossil fuels.

    Cedric Schuster of Samoa, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, said: “We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot sign on to text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.”

    The Cop28 presidency released a draft text in the early evening on Monday, which called for “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net zero by, before or around 2050, in keeping with the science”.

    The text avoids highly contentious calls for a “phase-out” or “phase-down” of fossil fuels, which have been the focus of deep disagreement among the more than 190 countries meeting in Dubai.

    But instead of requiring fossil fuel producers to cut their output, it frames such reductions as optional, by calling on countries to “take actions that could include” reducing fossil fuels. “That one word ‘could’ just kills everything,” said Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s environment minister….

    Liked by 1 person

  171. Oh no! I’m gutted, I really am. 90,000 attendees flying hundreds of thousands of miles, many in their own private jets and all they came up with in the end was an agreement that countries “could” take action on the phase out of fossil fuels which the Settled Science says is absolutely necessary in order to save the planet from being burned to a crisp. Gaia wept! No wonder the ‘scientists’ was to take control!

    Like

  172. More like Justin Rowlatt has pissed his pants again & should know better by now to wear a nappy.

    Like

  173. Robin,

    I spotted that and mentioned it on the United Nations thread. Thanks for posting it here too, however. It’s received little mention in the MSM, and is in danger of sneaking under the radar.

    Like

  177. From the FT today:

    COP28 heads for extra time as majority clashes with Saudi Arabia

    Kingdom backed by other petrostates but many countries call for commitment to phase out fossil fuels.

    Not gonna happen.

    Like

  179. “Why fossil fuels were the big winner of COP28
    Western fantasies about the end of oil and gas came crashing down to Earth.”

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/12/12/why-fossil-fuels-were-the-big-winner-of-cop28/

    …The West’s downbeat green elites seem to totally underestimate the importance of energy. The current yearly energy use of the world is close to 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which is about the same amount of energy created by 500 billion human workers. It is our ability to produce energy on such an unprecedented scale that allows us to have modern and prosperous societies. The forced phase-out of fossil fuels that certain COP28 delegates are demanding would endanger humanity’s future.

    Fossil-fuel rich countries tend to be much more conscious of the importance of energy than the West’s green activists. This is why Saudi Arabia is not resting on its oil provisions. Instead, it is doing everything it can to get access to nuclear power. The UAE is similarly committed to nuclear. It now has three Korean-built reactors online, with a fourth scheduled to join them in 2024. Indeed, one of the most significant breakthroughs of this year’s conference has been the pledge by over 20 nations to triple their nuclear capacity by 2050. This would have been inconceivable just a few years ago.

    Meanwhile, Germany, once the global role model for the green-energy transition, is fast becoming a nation no one wants to emulate. The German government’s decision to switch off fully functional nuclear power plants was always seen as somewhat eccentric. But now, with Germany in the midst of an economic and energy crisis, that decision looks suicidal.

    More and more countries are now starting to plot a different path to that travelled by Germany. They are realising that aiming for energy abundance should take precedence over a transition to renewables.

    Through the rows and wrangling over draft deals on fossil fuels, COP28 has shed a light on where the global debate on energy and the environment is going. It shows that poorer nations will not let richer Western nations hold back their development in the name of climate change. And it also shows that energy-producing countries will not agree on any fixed date to cut fossil-fuel production, unless true alternatives are in place.

    Perhaps nothing better captures the new trajectory for global energy policies than the choice of the host country for COP29. That’s right, it’s Azerbaijan, another petrostate.

    Like

  180. Mark: it’s interesting, and typical, that your Guardian article – while lambasting so-called ‘rich’ countries (i.e. us) – doesn’t even mention China and India, together the source of 40% of global emissions.

    Like

  181. A deal has been agreed at Dubai. According to the BBC, the key text says:

    Countries will “contribute… to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”

    The BBC comments:

    ‘This is the first time there has been a clear reference to the future of all fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) in a COP text. It doesn’t include any wording on the “phase out of fossil fuels” – something many governments wanted’

    Nonetheless it was, as usual, greeted by a standing ovation. But, again as usual, it’s essentially meaningless and is , as always, non binding.

    Liked by 1 person

  182. Four days ago Bjorn Lomborg said this about the Dubai conference:

    The spectacle of another annual climate conference is ongoing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until Dec. 12. Like Kabuki theater, performative set pieces lead from one to the other: politicians and celebrities arrive by private jets; speakers predict imminent doom; hectoring nongovernmental organizations cast blame; political negotiations become fraught and inevitably go overtime; and finally: the signing of a new agreement that participants hope and pretend will make a difference.

    And that of course is exactly what happened.

    Like

  183. Robin, on the radio I heard that there is a reference in the final communique to Net Zero by 2050. If this is indeed the case then it will be used in the UK to reinforce our existing (and very damaging) Net Zero agenda. However, I have not yet had confirmation of the 2050 wording; have you?

    Regards,
    John.

    Like

  184. John: well yes. As I note above it seems the key words (according to the BBC) are that countries will:

    “contribute… to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”

    I haven’t yet seen a copy of the full agreed text. However I now learn, again from the BBC, that it includes the statement that the ‘deal’:

    “Recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition”.

    It seems to me that such vague, essentially meaningless, words could, if anything, weaken the UK’s Net Zero agenda. But of course its proponents are not going to agree to that.

    Best – Robin

    Liked by 1 person

  185. So, if Britain continues its accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, with an overreliance upon intermittent renewables putting the country and its citizens at considerable disadvantage and huge risk compared to others, for very little real effect as regards reducing global emissions and reducing global temperature, then that will not be a ‘just and equitable’ transition, so it could then be argued that the Climate Change Act 2008 and the Net Zero statutory instrument amendment and all the other punitive legislation arising therefrom, unfairly singles out British citizens.

    Liked by 1 person

  186. Jaime: not only would it be neither just nor equitable, but it would almost certainly not be ‘orderly’.

    Liked by 1 person

  187. The MSM today is full of comment about the ‘deal’ that was agreed in Dubai this morning. But, try as I may, I cannot find a copy of the actual text.

    Can anyone help?

    Like

  188. I’ve found what I believe must be what I’m looking for. You have to go to the UN FCCC website and search under:

    Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement
    Agenda item 4
    First global stocktake
    Draft decision -/CMA.5

    Now – if I have time given the need to decorate the house and write a few Christmas cards – I’ll read it. And report back.

    Like

  189. I’ve had a quick read through this document – 21 pages of ghastly UN-speak. As I expected, it’s vague and largely meaningless. But in particular it specifically lets the big developing country emitters (the source of over 65% of global emissions) off the hook. In other words, the whole COP28 process was a pointless absurdity.

    Liked by 2 people

  191. 28. Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways and calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches:

    (a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
    (b) Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
    (c) Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
    (d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;

    153. Reaffirms its commitment to multilateralism, especially in the light of the progress made under the Paris Agreement and resolves to remain united in the pursuit of efforts to achieve the purpose and long-term goals of the Agreement;
    154. Recognizes that Parties should cooperate on promoting a supportive and open international economic system aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth and development in all countries and thus enabling them to better to address the problems of climate change, noting that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade;
    155. Notes that the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that international cooperation is a critical enabler for achieving ambitious climate action and encouraging development and implementation of climate policies;

    Make of that what you will. What I make of it is that the Parties commit to a MULTILATERAL transition away from fossil fuels so as to achieve Net Zero by 2050 in recognition of the fact that unilateral action might result in unjustifiable discrimination. The reality is that only a few countries have been mad enough to commit legally to Net Zero and none of the major polluters have and those countries which haven’t are extremely unlikely to achieve Net Zero by 2050, so the world as a whole is not going to achieve a ‘just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels’. Therefore governments which have unilaterally committed to Net Zero and are busy punishing their populaces with costly and ineffective measures, are destroying their economies, rationing energy AND making energy more expensive, decimating their industries, wrecking their natural environment and endangering wildlife are most definitely NOT acting in the spirit of this agreement for as long as the rest of the world does not follow their example.

    Liked by 2 people

  192. Jaime: you’re right. A careful interpretation of the text you quote confirms it. For example, for a country to be ‘called on’ merely to ‘contribute’ to a ‘global effort’ and when in so doing it must take account of the Paris Agreement (see below), does not even remotely mean that that country has committed to do anything – especially when that country is a developing country (such as China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia or Brazil).

    And re the Paris Agreement, look at paragraph 38:

    ‘Recalls Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement, which provides that developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets, and that developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.’

    I particularly liked that ‘encouraged to move over time‘. And note how paragraph 39 specifically ‘Reaffirms‘ that Article 4. 4.

    Few people bother to read this stuff. They should: it shows what an utter absurdity this ‘deal’ really is.

    Liked by 2 people

  193. But don’t worry: the FT says that ‘Countries strike a ‘historic’ deal at COP28‘ and the BBC describes COP28 as a ‘Landmark summit‘.

    Like

  194. Robin, African countries will not phase out and they will not phase down. They are going to assert their right to fully develop their economies using fossil fuels. So, Net Zero 2050 globally will not be achieved and if developed nations phase out, all they will manage to achieve is the sacrifice of their developed economies and the immiseration of their populaces whilst China, India, Africa and others enjoy the benefits of cheap, abundant, energy rich fossil fuels. So, the transition away from fossil fuels is not just, not orderly, not equitable and not happening. We need a political party in the UK to kick back hard against the Parliamentary Uniparty which is singly intent upon sacrificing the nation on the altar of Net Zero.

    https://energychamber.org/we-will-not-sell-out-by-phasing-out-african-negotiations-urged-to-fight-for-africa/

    Liked by 3 people

  195. Hello Jaime,
    Yes, yes, yes, “We need a political party in the UK to kick back hard against the Parliamentary Uniparty which is singly intent upon sacrificing the nation on the altar of Net Zero.”

    And we need it now!

    Regards, John.

    Liked by 1 person

  196. From the BBC –
    “What does this mean for the future? Environment correspondent Matt McGrath takes a look here.
    New episodes of Newscast and the Climate Question will drop soon – our climate editor Justin Rowlatt will be digging into the detail.
    From the team here in Dubai, thanks for joining us. See you in Azerbaijan for COP29.”

    What a joke.

    Like

  198. Superb. Thank you, Robin, for drawing it to our attention. I urge everyone to take a look (I wish our politicians would – perhaps reality would dawn, though probably not).

    Like

  200. Robin,

    Unfortunately, the article is for paid subscribers only. I can understand the need for funding. I have paid subscribers too, but everything I write on Substack is free to view and will remain so. Ben is an essential voice whose writings should be read by the widest audience possible.

    Liked by 1 person

  201. Jaime: Ben was commenting on the Guardian article (discussed above) about the IPCC scientists who, dismayed at ‘the slow pace of climate action’, believe the answer is for scientists to be authorised to make policy prescriptions and (potentially) to oversee implementation.

    His conclusion:

    These people’s banal opinions are not even worth the space on the worthless pages of the Guardian… But the Guardian reader now wants to crown them the kings and queens of the entire planet.

    And that is worthy of comment. What it reveals is that people’s understanding of what science and scientists and institutional science are, and are capable of, is a completely bizarre, twisted fantasy. And that misapprehension has been formed because, now that institutions like the IPCC have been constructed, and put so close to political decision making – power – they have been corrupted. These idiots have been flattered into believing that they are unimpeachable scientists, whose rightful place is at the top of the world, telling all those nations what they must do.

    We do not need to be scientist to observe that absolute power corrupts absolutely. ‘Science’ is a fig leaf.

    Liked by 2 people

  202. Robin, Ben is correct. Absolute power corrupts absolutely, as does absolute authority. Climate scientists have for too long enjoyed absolute expert authority over ‘the science’ and now they want absolute power over policy because they have seen that the politicians have failed to implement the policies which ‘their’ science dictates are necessary, much of which they bizarrely inherited from political impetus anyway, but now they want to claim exclusive ownership rights. The current attempted power grab by the God scientists is a result of their increasing disillusionment over the grubby power sharing coalition between scientists and politicians which came to the fore in the Covid era and now has continued with the acceleration of Net Zero policies. They’ve had a whiff of real political power and they want more.

    Like

  204. Really this is all quite pathetic: these histrionics are little more than a storm in a teacup – a teacup that consists of North America, parts of the EU, the UK and Australia. As I point out HERE and HERE , most of the world – the source of about 75% of global emissions – very sensibly has no intention of cutting its emissions.

    Liked by 2 people

  205. Ben Pile has posted an excellent article on his recently-launched Substack. Headed ‘Dubious Dubai decision: democracy and diesel aren’t dead yet’ it can be found HERE .

    I have a (rather long) comment.

    David Turver has an article (COP28: Not Much Cop) on the same topic. I’ve posted essentially the same comment.

    Like

  207. I’ve even got some support. I’ve noticed recently that, although TC authors are as leftie/activist as ever, some commentators (when comments are allowed) are surprisingly sceptical.

    Liked by 1 person

  208. Is anyone surprised?

    “Countries failing to act on UN climate pledge to triple renewables, thinktank finds

    Fossil fuel reliance likely to continue and Cop28 target of limiting global heating to below 1.5C will be missed”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/31/countries-failing-act-un-climate-triple-renewables-cop28

    Most global governments have failed to act on the 2023 UN pledge to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade, according to climate analysts.

    The failure to act means that on current forecasts the world will fall far short of its clean energy goals, leading to a continued reliance on fossil fuels that is incompatible with the target of limiting global heating to below 1.5C.

    A report by the climate thinktank Ember found that only 22 countries, most within the EU, have increased their renewable energy ambitions since more than 130 signed up to the renewables pact at the UN’s Cop28 climate talks in Dubai almost two years ago.

    This means that the global sum of national renewables targets is now just 2% higher than at Cop28. While this could be enough to double the world’s renewable energy capacity from 2022, to reach 7.4 terawatts (TW) by 2030, governments would fall well below the 11TW needed to meet the UN goal of tripling renewables, according to the analysts.

    “Tripling global renewables capacity by 2030 is the single biggest action this decade to stay on track for the 1.5C climate pathway,” the report said. “Yet, despite the landmark Cop28 agreement to reach 11,000GW of renewables by 2030, national targets remain largely unchanged and fall short of what is needed.”

    The report found that beyond the EU only seven countries have updated their renewable energy goals since the pact was signed, including Mexico and Indonesia, which have watered down their targets.

    Countries that have failed to act include the US, China and Russia, which are some of the world’s largest energy users and together are responsible for almost half of the world’s annual carbon emissions.…

    Like

  209. “Decarbonising” electricity, even if it works, is still only a small fraction of total energy.

    Like

  210. Maybe a bit O/T for this thread – Britain’s gas imports surge as Miliband abandons North Sea

    “The majority of the gas imports came from Norway, the US and Qatar. Gas from Norway comes via an undersea pipeline, while imports from elsewhere arrive as liquefied natural gas (LNG) on giant shipping tankers.

    Barnaby Wharton, of Renewable UK, said: “There is no one who credibly believes we could meet the UK’s electricity needs by burning the gas that’s left in the North Sea.

    “We successfully drilled nearly all of our North Sea oil and gas in the boom years of the 80s and 90s. Now we need to capitalise on our world leading wind resources or we are going to end up importing billions of pounds of foreign gas to keep the lights on.”

    An Energy Department spokesman said: “We are delivering the most significant investment in clean power in British history, as part of our mission to replace our dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets with home-grown power we control.”

    The article is headed – “Britain’s gas imports surge as Miliband abandons North Sea”, yet they let Barnaby spout the same old biased rubbish on “our world leading wind resources” will “keep the lights on.”

    I sometimes wonder if it’s me that’s biased & deranged.

    Like

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.