I posted a comment on Open Mic yesterday, based on an article in the Guardian with the heading “Brown bear cubs in Japan die of starvation amid salmon shortage” and sub-heading “Experts blame rising sea temperatures caused by climate crisis for cub deaths at Unesco heritage site”. The Guardian is not alone in reporting on the story in this way. Sky News has a very similar article with a very similar title: “Brown bear cubs starving to death in Japan due to salmon shortage” and a very similar sub-title: “As many as eight in ten brown bears cubs born this year in Japan’s Shiretoko area have died, with experts blaming rising sea temperatures for dwindling salmon numbers.”

The suspiciously similar titles, sub-titles (and narratives) might suggest that once more news pieces are being generated by press releases, and regurgitated by journalists who are all too happy to play this game, especially if they support the “climate crisis” narrative. Nevertheless, to the credulous, it might look like “case closed”, with climate change obviously being the culprit. For instance, the Guardian tells us:

Pink salmon that hatch in rivers in Hokkaido spend the winter in the sea, before returning to streams in Shiretoko between August and October to lay eggs. Brown bears typically lie in wait for the salmon as they make their way upstream, but have been forced to swim in the sea because of the shortage of river fish….

…Experts said sea surface temperatures off Hokkaido remained above 20C from mid-July to early August 2021, 5C higher than average for that time of the year…

…Fishers caught 482,775 pink salmon in rivers in Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost main island, between 25 July and 5 September in 2020, but only 23,298 last year, according to the Hokkaido Salmon Propagation Association. Given statistical evidence showing that good catches occur every other year, the 2022 haul was surprisingly small.

Bang to rights then – a devastatingly small salmon harvest in 2022 compared to previous years. Except that it’s possible the reason so few salmon made it into Hokkaido’s rivers in 2022 is because so many were caught at sea before they could get there.

According to the Tradex Foods website reporting on 21st November 2022 on the 2022 salmon harvest:

Japan is set to see the largest harvest of Hokkaido Chum Salmon since 2016 – however the country is still in need of more Salmon.

Preliminary catch totals as of November show 166 million pounds harvested – already surpassing 2016’s total.

This year’s harvest equates to about 57 million pounds more Chum Salmon than the past 5-year average.

And although Hokkaido Chum Salmon is mostly consumed domestically, our sources have advised Japan is still trying to source more Salmon.

Japan typically buys a lot of their Salmon requirements from Russia, however due to war imposed sanctions and Russia’s container shortages – imports of Russian Salmon into Japan have been strained this year.

Imports of Russian Sockeye into Japan for 2020 and 2021 were upwards of 40 million pounds annually, however preliminary data shows Russian Sockeye imports into Japan this year are hovering around only 15 million pounds.

Japan’s sanctions against Russia mean that Japan’s previously substantial salmon purchases from Russia had declined by over 60%, and so Japan is fishing more salmon (at sea) than for many a long year. Politicians and “green” campaigners are quick to blame the Russian invasion of Ukraine for many domestic woes, including high energy prices, but I’ve never heard anyone blame it for the problems encountered by Russia’s starving bears. And yet it just might be part of the explanation. Who knows?

Other articles are available. Teller Report informs us that not only Hokkaido autumn salmon but also sea urchins were dying in large numbers in 2021. This was blamed on the “largest ever” “red tide” in Hokkaido. This is a large plankton swarm that is not normally found in the area. Some speculation is to the effect that this is due to warming ocean temperatures as Karenia Mikimotoi plankton moved north (so climate change again), but that claim sits more than a little uneasily with another suggestion that the red tide also consists of Karenia Brevis plankton, which has moved south from colder seas to the north (in which case, presumably, not climate change).

Conclusion

Whatever the cause of declining river salmon in Hokkaido, the explanations seem to be complex and multi-faceted, and the simple blaming of climate change is perhaps just too convenient. By the way, the bears are hungry, not just because of a shortage of salmon, but also because a shortage of acorns, another of their staple foods. Acorn shortages seem to be a regular problem, unfortunately, but not because of warm weather – quite the contrary. An online article which appears to date back to 2010, when another acorn shortage led (as now) to hungry bears wandering into areas of human habitation with unfortunate bear/human consequences tells us that in that case oak trees didn’t grow enough buds due to unusually low temperatures in spring, though admittedly a hot summer also exacerbated the situation. None of the articles I have looked at in connection with Hokkaido’s currently hungry bears bother to discuss why there is an acorn shortage. I don’t know the answer, but perhaps last year was a mast year? As the Tree Council website tells us:

A mast year occurs roughly once every 5-10 years, and is where a tree species such as oak drastically increase the number of acorns they produce. The oak trees put so much energy into this bumper crop of acorns that they leave themselves little energy to continue producing the following years. So, since last year was a mast year, this year our beloved oaks are recovering resulting in far fewer acorns for wildlife and nature-lovers to enjoy.

Why do oak trees do this?

We do not know for sure why oak trees do this. But one theory is that there is an evolutionary advantage to producing an unreliable number of acorns each year. If it were too reliable, the theory goes, surrounding wildlife populations like that of squirrels, deer and birds would adjust and learn to eat the entire yearly crop. Mast years stop this from happening. In these years, oak trees flood the ecosystem and produce too many acorns for local wildlife to consume, meaning more will have the chance to grow into saplings come spring. And in the several years that follow a mast year where we see far fewer acorns, like this one, the cut to the food supply helps to control these wildlife populations so that there are fewer animals to gobble up acorns when the mast year comes back around.

If that is the explanation in Hokkaido, then again it’s nothing to do with climate change, but it’s unfortunate for the bears that a dearth year following an acorn mast year might have occurred at the same time as Japanese humans have eaten many of the salmon that would otherwise have been destined for Hokkaido’s rivers and for its bears, due to a war in Europe. Or maybe a butterfly beat its wings somewhere….

Footnote

Three years ago the Guardian reported on another Japanese acorn shortage leading to bears attacking humans. Again there seemed to be a lack of curiosity as to the reason for the shortage, but then we were told:

“There is less to eat in the mountains and that is why they are coming down into villages…”

Rural depopulation and the resulting abandonment of farmland is also a factor, as it has blurred the once-distinct borders between forests and villages.

Conservationists have warned that encounters between bears and humans – a traumatic experience for both parties – will continue unless more is done to ensure an adequate supply of acorns and other foods to sustain them in the summer and early autumn.

The rise in the number of attacks in recent years has left officials struggling to strike a balance between protecting Japan’s dwindling bear population and keeping the public safe. Possible solutions include establishing safe feeding spaces to prevent bears from venturing into populated areas or leaving supplies of acorns on higher ground.

Whatever the reason for the problem, nobody was then blaming climate change. Nor were they doing so in 1915 when there were serious problems with marauding bears during a series of incidents so dramatic that they even have their own Wikipedia page.

21 Comments

  1. Mark, my usual question: if the Guardian believes this and all the other ghastly happenings it keeps telling us about are the result of climate change, what does it propose should be done about it?

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  2. I’ve just moved the van due to acorns bouncing off the roof, and I’m seeing loads on the ground, so there’s definitely no shortage of them this year. Alas, no brown bears to eat them. Humans killed them all long ago.

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  3. Robin,

    I think the answer would be net zero asap, stop burning fossil fuels asap, not sure about the rest. Despite reading the Guardian most days for 40 years (at first because we were in agreement, latterly to keep an eye on its dangerous propaganda) I am not really much wiser. There’s a lot of drum – banging, Tory-bashing, angst and hyperbole, but I am not aware of a coherent plan.

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  4. What is it about the Guardian and Japanese bears? Today it is the Japanese Brown Bear, sixteen years ago it was the Japanese Black Bear:

    >Japan’s black bears ‘face extinction’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/jan/08/japan.conservationandendangeredspecies

    It is noteworthy that the above article was posted under the heading ‘Climate Crisis’ and yet, upon reading, it turns out that the problems facing the Japanese Black Bear appeared to include everything but climate change. Yes, there was the variability of the acorn harvest. Yes there was an over-zealous cull in response to urban incursion. Yes there is deforestation. But no, there is no mention of an impact from climate change. How times have changed. Now, Paddington Bear would be described by the Guardian as a climate change refugee: “Brown bear cubs in Peru die of starvation amid marmalade shortage”.

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  5. Mark: my question was too brief. I should have asked this: what, given that the experts tell us that the cause of climate change is humanity’s emission of GHGs and that by far the worst emitters are major non-Western countries, what does it (the Guardian) believe should be done about it? But of course they’d simply avoid the question. Or say that we must set an example.

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  6. Our planet and all its ‘eco’ systems are so complex and intertwined.
    I think your butterfly wing mention is about the strengh of it!
    I am extremly fortunate to own an area of woodland and grass land and over the last 20 odd years have realized that nature changes things all the time. Your mention of the oak trees has bought to mind the fact that this year I have had a vast increase in oak saplings sprouting and not all near the existing mature trees. This has taken me ages to install deer proof protecters, I have never observed this number before and it led me to wonder if previously the deer have eaten them before I have noticed or have the squirrels hiden the acorns in different places?
    It is the same with fungi, whilst I do have some that appear each year in roughly the same place I hve often observed some that I have only seen very occasionally or even just the once.
    I am of the opinion that our species is in far more danger from its own actions such as the growing societal unrest appearing more frequently everywhere rather than the planets failing us.

    Chin up everyone.
    LL.

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  7. Robin,

    I think the answer you supplied to your own question second time around hits the nail on the head.

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  8. There’s more about Japanese bears from the BBC today:

    “It’s bears versus robot wolves in ageing Japan”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66737051

    Apparently, they are using robot wolves to scare bears away from urban areas. As the article explains:

    “The number of bear attacks in Japan has been rising at an alarming rate, authorities say. Experts say the main reason is that people, particularly young people, are leaving rural farming villages. Many of them have migrated to big cities, emptying villages or towns that have already been shrinking due to an ageing population. ‘More and more, rural farmlands in the foothills that once acted as buffer zones between the bears and humans are disappearing,’ said Shinsuke Koike, a professor at the Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology whose research centres on bears, biodiversity, and forest ecosystems. As a result, young bears have over the decades moved into the untended woodlands, living closer to cities, getting used to bright lights and loud noises, and becoming less afraid of humans.”

    So that’s clear then. This has nothing to do with climate change for once. Except this is the BBC we are dealing with here, and so much further down we are told:

    “It [sic] situation has been worsened by reduced yields of acorns – the biggest food source for bears – in part because of climate change.”

    Oh no, here we go: ‘In part because of climate change’. As long as someone has said that climate change plays a part, the BBC can spin its yarn — as indeed it does for the rest of the bloody article. For example:

    “Acorn harvests typically adhere to a boom and bust cycle. An autumn of exceptional harvest can mean a dismal one the following year, and a bad year can be made worse when intense storms – more frequent now because of climate change – destroys crops.”

    And then there is the early springs to think about:

    “Global warming can also affect oak trees in other ways. A 2015 study showed that warmer weather may lead to smaller crops of acorns by disrupting pollination.”

    ‘In part’, ‘made worse’, ‘can’, ‘may’.

    Why can’t they just let it go?

    Liked by 1 person

  9. John, thanks for that.

    The BBC article could be read as suggesting that reduced acorn harvests are a new phenomenon (due “in part” to climate change, naturally). This isn’t true.

    And if the Tree Council doesn’t know why we have years of high acorn numbers and years of poor acorn harvests, I am pretty sure the BBC doesn’t know either.

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  10. Meanwhile, in other news…:climate change is apparently responsible for too many salmon:

    “‘It smells so bad’: glut of wild salmon creates stink in Norway and Finland”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/02/it-smells-so-bad-glut-of-wild-salmon-creates-stink-in-norway-and-finland

    It’s the result of the Law of Unintended Consequences yet again:

    The carnage is the result of an invasion – not of Atlantic salmon but Pacific pink salmon, which has prompted both Norway and Finland declare an emergency. Also known as pukkellaks or humpback salmon, for their characteristic bulge, pink salmon were introduced into the Kola peninsula in Russia in the 1950s in an attempt to stimulate the economy. They live in oceans and swim up the same rivers every two years to lay their eggs and then die.

    But naturally climate change has made things so much worse – or so we’re told, without supporting evidence:

    But the fish often stray from the group and find their home elsewhere – and over the years they have moved westwards. Now, as the climate changes, there have been dramatic increases in pink salmon numbers in the north Atlantic – and many end up dead and rotting in the Tana.

    A collapse in salmon numbers? Climate change, obviously. Huge numbers of unwanted salmon? Climate change too, equally obviously….

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  12. Curious. No mention of climate change or of a shortage of salmon any more. On the contrary, bumper food stocks last year apparently led to a possibly over-successful breeding season, and Japanese bear numbers are on the rise, or so the article says:

    “Sharp rise in bear attacks in Japan as they struggle to find food
    Amid lack of acorns and beechnuts in natural habitats, bears have injured 158 people and killed two since April”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/29/japan-rise-bear-attacks-food-struggle

    Experts in Japan have warned that bear attacks are rising at an unprecedented rate, as the animals struggle to find food in their natural habitat.

    Bears have caused at least 158 injuries and two deaths since April, equalling the record set in 2020, according to media reports. Most of the attacks occurred in the northern part of Honshu, Japan’s biggest island, the environment ministry said.

    Experts attribute the rising number of incidents to a combination of bumper crops of acorns and beechnuts last year – which resulted in the presence of larger bear cubs – and a shortage of the dietary staples this year, which is forcing more animals to venture into populated areas in search of food before they go into hibernation in early December.

    In the past, bear encounters almost always involved people who had wandered into the forest to forage for wild vegetables and herbs, or unsuspecting hikers. But the blurring of the once-distinct borders between the bears’ forest homes and depopulated villages has led to more frequent contact with humans in built-up areas….

    …Conservationists have called for more to be done to ensure an adequate supply of acorns and other foods. Possible solutions include establishing safe feeding spaces to prevent the animals from venturing into populated areas or leaving supplies of acorns on higher ground.

    Japan’s bear population is growing. A recent estimate published by the Yomiuri put the number of black bears at 44,000 – compared with 15,000 estimated by the environment ministry’s biodiversity centre in 2012. That figure does not include Hokkaido, thought to be home to about 11,700 Ussuri brown bears, whose population has more than doubled since 1990….

    In other words – nothing to do with climate change, despite earlier knee-jerk claims to that effect.

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  13. At least they seem to have stopped blaming climate change:

    “Japan to trial AI bear warning system after record number of attacks

    Six people have been killed and more than 200 injured in attacks by bears over the past year”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/30/japan-to-trial-ai-bear-warning-system-after-record-number-of-attacks

    ...There were 219 casualties and six fatalities from bear attacks across 19 prefectures in the year to March, the highest figures logged since nationwide data became available.

    Fluctuating harvests of bears staple foods, as well as rural depopulation, have been cited as factors in the rise in encounters with the animals. A steady fall in the number of children in country towns and villages, whose noisier behaviour helps keeps bears away, is believed by experts to be another factor….

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  14. “Japan wants to make it easier to shoot bears as attacks rise”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c19kvevezlwo

    …Bear numbers have revived as Japan’s human population ages and shrinks, especially outside cities. The consequences have been dangerous, although usually resulting in injury not death….

    …The country’s northernmost major island is sparsely populated – but its bear population has more than doubled since 1990, according to government data. It now has around 12,000 brown bears, which are known to be more aggressive than black bears, of which there are around 10,000 in Japan by experts’ estimates….

    …As bear numbers have grown, more of them have moved from the mountains into flatlands closer to human populations. Over time, they have become used to the sights and sounds of humans, and less afraid of them.

    There are also fewer humans around as young people move to big cities, leaving whole towns nearly empty. When bears do encounter humans, it can turn violent.…

    …But their movements have become more unpredictable as yields of acorn – the biggest food source for bears – fall because of climate change….

    As explained in my piece, this is dubious at best. At least the BBC isn’t blaming a shortage of fish due to boiling seas. It seems obvious that declining food sources due to “climate change” doesn’t explain a doubling of bear numbers, but a doubling of bear numbers might explain pressure on scarce food resources and hence more aggressive behaviour.

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  15. “Bear snared after three day supermarket standoff with Japan police

    Authorities in Akita prefecture had struggled to locate the animal, which attacked a man and has eaten large quantities of meat”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/akita-japan-bear-attack-supermarket-captured

    It’s difficult to blame climate change – and indeed this time the Guardian doesn’t seek to do so – when this is the reality:

    …Japan’s bear population is growing, with one estimate putting the number of black bears at 44,000 – compared with 15,000 estimated in 2012. That figure does not include Hokkaido, thought to be home to just under 12,000 Ussuri brown bears, whose population has more than doubled since 1990.

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  16. “Japan relaxes bear-shooting laws amid rise in attacks

    Authorities relax laws to make it easier for hunters to carry out ‘emergency shootings’ when bears are spotted in populated areas”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/23/japan-relaxes-bear-shooting-laws-amid-rise-in-attacks

    The Guardian is still pushing the climate change angle, naturally:

    …Experts attribute the rise in attacks to a scarcity of acorns and other staples of the ursine diet – a problem some experts have attributed to the climate crisis….

    However, they fail to explain how such claims are consistent with this:

    …Japan’s bear population is growing, with an estimate by the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper putting the number of Asiatic black bears at 44,000, compared with 15,000 estimated in 2012. The estimate does not include Hokkaido, thought to be home to just under 12,000 Ussuri brown bears – a threefold increase since 2012….

    Liked by 1 person

  18. “Runaway bear in runway ‘stalemate’ with Japanese airport officials

    A dozen flights cancelled at Yamagata airport as attempts to chase furry trespasser away continue”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/26/bear-on-runway-flights-cancelled-japan-yamagata-airport

    Perhaps inevitably, this being a Guardian report…:

    …With the climate crisis affecting food sources and hibernation times, along with human depopulation caused by an ageing society, bears are venturing into urban areas more frequently, scientists have said.

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  19. “Bears kill seven people in Japan this year as attacks hit record high”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj41vn9q81ko

    Yet again, climate change is unthinkingly blamed, with no attempt to explain this, nor any attempt being made to weigh up the relative importance of factors playing in to this story:

    …Attacks by bears tend to surge in autumn before bears hibernate, with experts saying low yields of beech nuts because of climate change could be driving hungry animals into residential areas. Depopulation has also been cited as a factor.…

    Why, to mention just one issue, does the BBC not mention the rapid growth in bear numbers in Japan? According to Wikipedia:

    …Japan’s bear population is growing, with one recent estimate putting the number of black bears at 44,000 – compared with 15,000 estimated in 2012…

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  20. “Bear attack survival tips released in Japan as encounters surge

    Governor of one prefecture says he is considering asking the military for help to tackle increasing attacks amid thousands-strong bear population”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/27/bear-attack-survival-tips-released-in-japan-as-encounters-surge

    The bears are thriving, eh? Yet…

    …There is also evidence that warmer winters caused by the climate crisis are forcing the animals to hibernate later than usual, which raises the likelihood of an encounter.…

    Well, Guardian, if there’s evidence, would you like to share it with us? Guardian reporting on this story has been all over the place over the last two years or more, but the one thing they consistently try to blame (without evidence) is climate change. I also noted a few reports on the BBC Radio 4 last week (I have found nothing on the BBC website) about the banning (or postponement, I forget which) of a Japanese film about bear attacks, which the BBC used to shoehorn in claims – again unevidenced – that climate change is causing more bear attacks on humans in Japan.

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  21. “As Japan experiences a surge in bear attacks, survivors share grisly stories of blood, bites and broken bones

    A record 13 people have died in bear attacks in Japan this year – with experts blaming food shortages as the animals venture further into residential areas”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/06/japan-searching-for-cause-of-surge-of-bear-attacks

    It’s interesting how the story has morphed. It was originally said to be about a shortage of salmon because of warming seas and the “climate crisis”. Now this is the narrative:

    …Experts blame poor crops of acorns and beechnuts – shortages that have been linked to the climate crisis – which form the bulk of the animals’ diet, while natural boundaries, called satoyama, that once separated forests and built-up areas have been blurred by decades of rural depopulation. Faced with food shortages, the animals are venturing further out of their natural habitat and into residential areas, where they have acquired a taste for persimmons and chestnuts.…

    It’s worth noting that the black bear population in Japan has exploded:

    Japan’s bear population is growing, with one recent estimate putting the number of black bears at 44,000 – compared with 15,000 estimated in 2012.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_black_bear

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