In Hot Off The Press I reported on a Guardian article that appeared on 30th May this year, seeking to spin a survey on heat pumps. To my mind, the survey was much more equivocal regarding satisfaction with heat pumps than the Guardian piece suggested. Well, now they’re at it again, with another article, with the heading “Heat pumps twice as efficient as fossil fuel systems in cold weather, study finds” and sub-heading “Doubts about whether heat pumps work well in subzero conditions shown to be unfounded, say researchers”. The article is based on a study with the title “Coming in from the cold: Heat pump efficiency at low temperatures”.
The article claims that research shows heat pumps to be more than twice as efficient as fossil fuels at low temperatures, out-performing oil and gas heating systems even at temperatures as low as -30C. The UK is falling behind with regard to the heat pump roll-out (you can say that again), and it’s because people have been scared by false information regarding their efficacy at low temperatures. We are also told:
The UK government is consulting on proposals for incentives to households to take up heat pumps, which at about £7,000 or more can cost two or three times as much up front as gas boilers. Boiler companies are also to be penalised if they fail to sell enough heat pumps, under a “market-based mechanism” that will require them to sell a certain quota of heat pumps or pay a penalty.
Some proponents of gas boilers have railed against the quota, which they claim will add costs to consumers, and at least one boiler company has responded by telling customers that the price of new gas boilers is likely to go up as a result of this green measure.
The second of those two paragraphs is more than a little strange, carrying with it the implication that the proponents of gas boilers and “at least one boiler company” are somehow behaving badly in making such claims, since it’s abundantly obvious that the “claims” (note the loaded language) are clearly correct.
Be that as it may, we should look at the survey which provided the hook on which the Guardian hangs yet another heat pump article. It was published on 11th September 2023, and has four co-authors. The first named are Duncan Gibb, “a senior advisor at the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), a global team of highly skilled energy experts with a focus on heat decarbonization policy”, and Jan Rosenow, also of RAP. RAP, according to its website is “an independent, global, non-governmental organization advancing policy innovation and thought leadership within the energy community.” Independent, perhaps, but with a very definite interest in pushing things like heat pumps:
For more than three decades, RAP has been a leader in developing solutions to the world’s most pressing power sector challenges. In the next five years RAP will focus on key policy areas to drive a more efficient and equitable decarbonized energy future and to ensure a sustainable and just transition: Accelerate electrification of buildings and transportation; accelerate the phaseout of gas infrastructure; remove barriers to distributed energy resources; and decarbonize the electric grid.
Messrs Gibb and Rosenow regularly write articles extolling the virtues of heat pumps, such as “How the energy crisis is boosting heat pumps in Europe” and “How to solve the UK’s heat pump problem”.
The two other authors are Dr Richard Lowes (also of RAP) and Professor Neil Hewitt, Head of School at the Belfast School of Architecture and Built Environment at Ulster University.
All four gentlemen are highly qualified and knowledgeable about heat pumps. I think it’s probably also fair to say that they are all rather keen on decarbonisation generally, and heat pumps specifically. Not that this in any way invalidates their research and findings, but when analysing their study, I think it’s worth bearing in mind that they may start with a predisposition to encourage heat pump take-up.
As the introductory paragraph makes clear, the object of the study is to analyse “field studies with real-world performance data of air-source heat pumps” with a view to responding to the suggestion “that heat pumps cannot deliver useful efficiencies at lower temperatures.” Perhaps I am being unkind, but it seems to me that the starting-point is to seek evidence that will help to debunk criticism of the efficacy of heat pumps when the temperature is very low (i.e. precisely when a good heating system is most needed). In the words of the authors, their “commentary responds to this question”. And this is the conclusion:
It finds that well below 0°C, heat pump efficiency is still significantly higher than fossil fuel and electric resistive heating systems at an appliance level. The standard heat pumps investigated in this commentary demonstrate suitable coefficients of performance for providing efficient heating during cold winters where temperatures rarely fall below −10°C, i.e., most of Europe.
I accept that finding at face value, of course. However, there are issues that suggest that notwithstanding the findings, heat pumps really are not the answer for many UK householders, though the study does not mention these, or at least, insofar as it does, it doesn’t draw that conclusion. The first issue is with regard to the price of gas and electricity for UK domestic consumers. A quick visit to a price comparison website suggests that electricity in the UK currently costs domestic consumers somewhere between 26.6p and 28.67p per Kwh, with an across-the-board daily standing charge of 42p. For gas, the daily standard charge is set at two-thirds that level, at 28p. However, the Kwh charge is much cheaper, with prices ranging from 6.46p to 7.21p. Roughly speaking then, electricity is around four times as expensive as gas to use, with a daily charge that is 50% higher. Ignoring the costs of changing a gas boiler for a heat pump (though in the real world, such a cost is all too relevant), installing a heat pump would seem to make sense for most householders only if a heat pump’s efficiency was four times greater than the efficiency of a gas boiler (all other things being equal). Does the study find this to be the case? This is the finding:
Heat pump efficiency is measured by the device’s coefficient of performance (COP), the ratio of the useful heat outputted to energy consumed. Typical COP values for heat pumps lie in the range of 3–6, indicating that 3 to 6 units of heat are created from each unit of electricity used. A year-round average COP of 3–4 is common for household applications.
If I understand it correctly, the COP of a standard gas boiler is around 0.9 (see, e.g. here). And so, all things being equal (except that they’re not), at first blush the heat pump might seem to pass that test. But even then there’s a problem:
The temperature difference between a heat pump’s source (the outside air) and sink (heating supply location) plays a determining role in the COP and, therefore, its overall performance. If the source temperature dips and the sink temperature is maintained, the COP falls. Around freezing temperatures, air-source heat pumps also can experience a reduction in COP due to the defrosting of external components.
That “year-round average COP of 3–4” for heat pumps is just that – a year-round average. In warm summer weather (when the heat pump is little-used, if it is used at all), the COP will be above that figure. And in cold winter weather (when the heating source is most urgently required) the COP will be below that figure – and the colder it gets, the lower the COP will be. In fact, we are told:
When the outside temperature was between 5°C and −10°C, the mean COP across all systems was 2.74 and the median was 2.62, sufficient to meet heating loads at much higher efficiency than fossil heating and electric resistance heat alternatives.
Also:
Below 0°C, the COP maintains a level well above 2 in all cases, meaning that an air-source heat pump would operate at more than twice the efficiency of combustion or resistive electric heating technology.
Thus, even though heat pumps do “demonstrate suitable coefficients of performance for providing efficient heating during cold winters”, and even though they may be wonders of efficiency, they will still be significantly more expensive than gas boilers to use in winter for the average UK householder (up to twice as expensive).
The study seeks to justify the underlying theme that heat pumps are fine in cold countries, by including statistics demonstrating high heat pump penetration in Estonia and in Scandinavian countries. But we are told nothing about energy pricing in those countries, and the authors go on to concede that “[t]he data do not provide insights about the achieved efficiency of those heat pumps” while nevertheless optimistically inferring that “the large share of household installations suggests that heat pumps can effectively provide heating in colder climates.”
Perhaps the optimistic inference is justified, but in order to establish that, we would need to know much more about the nature of the housing stock in those countries compared to the state of the UK’s housing stock. Surprisingly perhaps, I can see scarcely any attention paid to this issue at all. Instead, there is an almost throwaway remark to the effect that:
In any case, to mitigate the impact of peak heating loads on energy systems, efforts can be made toward improving the performance of the building stock to minimize load and level off heating demand peaks, as well as encourage demand response.
And as to the claim that “that heat pumps can be successfully installed in these conditions without concerns over performance or the need for back-up heating capacity”, that is subject to this rather important, but casually mentioned caveat:
This is subject to thorough heating system design and a high-quality installation in a building.
Further, as I mentioned above, all things are not equal when comparing heat pumps with gas boilers. Much of the UK’s housing stock is old and badly insulated. Much of it would need expensive works to be implemented before heat pumps could be installed and provide adequate heating. As the Homebuilding website I referred to above says:
Ultimately, if you opt for a heat pump rather than a gas boiler, you will need to size the radiators and/or UFH pipe lengths very precisely. You will also need to be able to control the speed of the water in the circuit as well as the delivery of heat to the circuit. The balance is critical and certainly not always possible in older or ‘energy hungry’ properties.
So, if you ask yourself ‘should I swap my gas boiler for a heat pump?’, you need to be aware that you’ll likely need to update your existing radiators and pipework, as well as your heat source, in an existing home.
The study concludes with a statement that the authors declare no competing interests, but also with an acknowledgement that “[t]his work was funded by a grant by the Crux Alliance.” Of course, the source of funding doesn’t invalidate the study’s findings, but it’s perhaps worth noting that the Crux Alliance (as its website puts it) is:
…a group of globally recognized, technically expert organizations that are laser-focused on advancing policies—unbiased, pragmatic, and localized—to generate powerful action in the countries and sectors that matter most for carbon reduction. The members of the Crux Alliance, known as Crux Policy Centers (CPCs), support policymakers around the world working to retire polluting power plants and to replace polluting vehicles, factories, and buildings with low-carbon alternatives—and to grow these alternatives at speed and scale. The Crux Alliance is all about getting climate policy right, right now.
In other words, it might not be too unfair to say that it has a policy position that is probably keen to encourage (among other things) the uptake of heat pumps.
As I see it, the study makes the case that heat pumps can work in cold temperatures, and that in some countries with cold winters they are widely used. It does not go on to make the case that it makes financial (or any other) sense to encourage a large-scale swapping of gas boilers for heat pumps in the UK, with its often inappropriate housing stock, expensive electricity (compared to the price of domestic gas) and high up-front costs. I see nothing in it to justify the tenor of the Guardian article reporting on it, to the effect that the UK should “bring in new measures to roll them [heat pumps] out as rapidly as possible.”
Climate Scepticism 
Can anyone here tell me what type of ‘heatpump’ is used in colder countries? do they use air/water as in the UK or do they use air/air unit? ie: are they blowing warm air around or heating water to run radiators?
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Mark, I refer you again to this chart. The COP of air source heat pumps is not just a function of the outdoor temperature, it also depends on the temperature of the heated water. If you want luke warm water at 35C, the heat pump COP is about 2.5 during cold winters, which still means it’s not economical compared to gas. But if you want water at 65C, comparable to a gas boiler, the COP drops below 2 at outdoor temperatures below +2C. With the price of electricity, this means that air source heat pumps would be MUCH more expensive to run than a gas central heating combi boiler, if you want decent hot water and you don’t want to go to the expense of having to fit all new aluminium extra large radiators in addition to a very expensive heat pump. This study says nothing new; it is just spinning old news as good news, when in fact the news is, as ever, that heat pumps are currently uneconomical and struggle to provide usable hot water during the winter, as well as heat your house to a comfortable temperature, whereas gas boilers can can keep your house warm AND provide a hot bath or shower for a fraction of the overall cost.
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Lordelate,
In Scandinavian countries, they generally have air to air heat source pumps, which work more efficiently than air to water. Water is heated by electricity, which was/is cheaper than it is in the UK.
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My son lives on the Canadian east coast. Not the coldest part of Canada but it has it’s share of snow and freezing rain. He has a new build house which is timber framed and well insulated. He has an air source to air heat pump which seems to work quite well in their open plan house. However, Canadian houses have long been designed for warm air heating which requires extensive ducting so builders are used to installing ducted air systems. Supplementary baseboard (skirting board) electric heaters are necessary to handle low temperatures and there is a heat exchanger to recover heat from exhaust to inlet air.
There’s no mains gas available, heating oil has got expensive and electricity is relatively cheap (for now). Air to air systems can also provide cooling in summer. It seems to me that air to water heat pumps are a very poor option – air at 25C warms you up, radiators at the same temperature not so much. If I was building a new house and forced to use electric heating I would take the lead from Canadian house design.
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“Heat pumps twice as efficient as fossil fuel systems in cold weather, study finds”
Relating to Gt Britain, I’ve no issue with that claim.
The crux of the matter for Brits is running costs.
From the figures Mark provides, broadly speaking, the cost of electricity is at least 3x that of natural gas per useful kWh.
Consequently, the Graun’s alternative conclusion should have stated that for us in Britain, heat pumps cost ~50% more to run vs natural gas boilers! 😉
HP advocates invariably ‘forget’ to mention two very important factors that (detrimentally) affect HP annual running costs:
1. Slow-response HPs must run for more hours than a swift-response boiler, particularly in winter when many must run 24/7 during the coldest weather, even when e.g. households are sleeping or out at work all day. This means that heat is being lost during prolonged heat-up periods. HP advocates fail to account for the costs of this unnecessarily-wasted heat.
2. Electricity prices are quoted from the ‘annual average’ price. However, HPs run most hours most of the time in winter when electricity prices are highest* and HP’s efficiency is lowest.
*Average annual electricity prices are proportions of day rate + night-rate (usually 11pm-6am), and heating systems are used when it’s cold & people want heat (i.e. daytime / early evening)
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@Jaime “Water is heated by electricity, which was/is cheaper than it is in the UK.”
There are two separate water circuits. One is warmed water serving space-heating (SH) radiators or fan-convectors; the other is the domestic hot water (DHW) supply serving taps, showers etc.
DHW needs to be at a temperature greater than that 35℃ at which a HP is shown to have its highest COP! So if the HP is supplying DHW, it will generally be at ~55°C, so at a lower COP.
Alternatively, the HP working at its higher COP but lower flow temperature, will have a circuit supplying a bulky, heavy hot-water storage cylinder where its temperature may then be boosted by an electric immersion heater. HP advocates fail to point out that immersion heaters have a COP of ‘only’ 1.0. Another factor that increases the running costs of those electric systems.
Note the white DHW storage cylinders in the BBC’s Octopus HP puff-piece. Those with sharp eyes will also spot what appear to be (black-coloured) immersion-heater bosses.
Most modern boilers are ‘combi’ type serving both SH + DHW from a single compact heat source.
Compare & contrast the HP’s complexity and space demands vs a simple boiler ….
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Many thanks to you all for the interesting and insightful comments. Perhaps I should have ended with a conclusion to the effect that the Guardian headline should have been “New study conclusively demonstrates inappropriateness of heat pumps for use in UK homes”.
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Thanks for your replies.
As I suspected, it seems to me that air/air units are better (more economical?), and can also provide cool blown air in summer. blown air heating seem to be rare in the UK now after being popular 50 odd years ago, they dont appear much in the UK now exept as air con units in mainly commercial settings.
Repeatedly I have seen the statement that air/water units can provide cooling in summer but clearly this is not possible. the uk public is being miss informed on a grand scale.
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“Repeatedly I have seen the statement that air/water units can provide cooling in summer but clearly this is not possible.”
It’s possible, but not necessarily straightforward.
https://www.daikin-ce.com/en_us/daikin-blog/can-heat-pumps-cool.html
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I was talking with a friend at the weekend about heat pumps. They have one to provide heating in their house and last winter were paying an average of £22.00 per day for electricity!
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I’ve read that ‘study’ now which is little more than a HP propaganda document which glosses over very important economic, technical and even basic physics issues and completely fails to mention the fact that heat pumps installed in colder European countries are generally air to air. Its conclusion:
“Our view is that the widespread rollout of air-source heat pumps around the world as part of decarbonization efforts can be successful with existing technology in most areas that have space heating demand. Ground-source heat pumps and hybrid air-source systems may have significant value in the coldest climates.”
Is totally unjustified. Pure propaganda and disinformation which of course the Guardian obligingly spreads to the public.
Of course, now that Octopus have invented a revolutionary ‘cosy’ heat pump which can supply DHW at up to 75C, there is no need for all this quibbling about annoying technical, practical and economic issues which might impede the installation of HPs everywhere and thus save the planet from this dreadful era of global boiling. Let the HP revolution commence! What are we waiting for?
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Hi Jaime
“Of course, now that Octopus have invented a revolutionary ‘cosy’ heat pump which can supply DHW at up to 75C, there is no need for all this quibbling about annoying technical, practical and economic issues which might impede the installation of HPs everywhere ….”
Greg Jackson, the £multi-multi-millionaire CEO of Octopus Energy Group, hopes to increase his enormous wealth still further, and at the expense of poor taxpayers who fund the expensive kit he’s marketing. £8k for a piddling 6kW heat pump (insufficient power to serve even one shower), of which taxpayers are expected to stump up £5k via the government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant, or even the entire £8k in some cases.
https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-unveils-next-stage-in-smart-heat-revolution-at-energy-tech-summit/
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No quibble with any of the technical arguments presented here. Congratulations to all – very informative. BUT, no mention of noise!
Surely one of the downside of air source heat pumps is that they are noisy – and have to run more or less 24 hours a day. If you are benefitting from it, you may tolerate the noise – but what about your neighbours??? If the law says they must have one a well, so be it, but I fear that a line of expensive houses will suddenly be a lot less attractive if they all (or nearly all) make that infernal noise all the time.
And note the law says the pump must be at least 18″ away from a boundary wall. Awkward in a small back garden behind a terraced house…
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Ken P,
Thanks for the comment. If this site:
https://www.planningportal.co.uk/permission/common-projects/heat-pumps/planning-permission-air-source-heat-pump
is correct, then air-source heat pumps can be installed as a permitted development, with no need for planning permission, so long as a number of factors are met, one of which is said to be this:
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Mark, Thanks for this excellent dissection of the article.
Others have raised the point of heating domestic water: the article seems to swerve it as the figures appear to cover space heating only.
Another issue which does not get much coverage is humidity. We are told how the machines perform at certain temperatures but not how humidity levels affect that performance. The UK is notoriously damp whereas the colder places cited are relatively dry. I would speculate that the need for frequent defrosting of the external coils has a significant impact, not just “Around freezing temperatures, air-source heat pumps also can experience a reduction in COP due to the defrosting of external components.”
I doubt the data are available for other countries where heat pumps are common but it would be interesting to see the relative adoption of HPs in areas with a gas supply compared to those without. It seems likely that, in many cases, the alternatives are oil, bottled gas or simple resistive heating where HPs probably have a significant cost advantage.
My electrical knowledge is pretty limited so maybe someone can advise whether, as well as the extra load, there could be issues with starting currents? Iirc, it used to be the case that anything over 5 kW had to have a 3-phase supply.
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“Heat-pump scheme ‘one-dimensional’, say heating firms”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-66723928
But read on:
Acknowledgement of the inappropriateness of heat pumps for many UK homes is contained here, and that’s from an enthusiast for de-carbonisation:
I’ll repeat that, with emphasis:
For millions of homes out there for whom heat pumps don’t work for a variety of reasons…
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“Heat Pump Farce Reaches New Low as Government Doubles Down on Fining Manufacturers That Sell too Many Gas Boilers”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/09/28/heat-pump-farce-reaches-new-low-as-government-doubles-down-on-fining-manufacturers-that-sell-too-many-gas-boilers/
The original article is in the Telegraph, so I’m going with the Daily Sceptic summary:
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“Call for more support as heat pump sales decline”
https://www.coolingpost.com/world-news/call-for-more-support-as-heat-pump-sales-decline/
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“Scots face ‘astronomical’ heating bills if the SNP and Greens push forward with plans to ban gas boilers by 2030, energy boss warns”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12590383/Scots-face-astronomical-heating-bills-SNP-Greens-push-forward-plans-ban-gas-boilers-2030-energy-boss-warns.html
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““Hell is a Heat Pump””
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/10/05/hell-is-a-heat-pump/
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More heat pump woes:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/hell-is-a-heat-pump/
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MikeHig, thanks for the link – the Spectator is where the original version of the Daily Sceptic piece (which offers a summary) can be found. I believe that the Spectator allows visitors to enjoy free access to a couple of articles a month without subscribing.
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Mark, sorry for doubling up on your post but, strange as it may seem, it wasn’t showing when I made my post.
Also I still cannot put in a paragraph break – weird!
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Mikehig,
No need to apologise. WordPress still seems to be behaving strangely – I am the one who should be apologising, though I’m not in charge of the problems WP seems to be causing!
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“Heat pumps are unaffordable despite new grant, say villagers”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67059247
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We have a similar tale. The company which was offering grants for condensing gas boiler upgrades is no longer doing so – heat pump grants only available. Our solid sandstone house was built in 1744 and is totally unsuitable for a heat pump installation. We have to get an EPC soon in order to market the house. No doubt the ‘expert’ that comes round will inform us that we can benefit from extra insulation on the solid walls and floors, or even cavity insulation if they fail to notice the walls are solid stone. He’ll no doubt tell us that the gas boiler and radiators are ancient and should be replaced with an ‘efficient’ air source or ground source pump. What a farce all this is.
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JJ: the EPC may not be that bad. Apparently the assessment is based partly on operating costs so has to recognise that the price disparity between (mains) gas and electricity works against heat pumps. Good luck anyway.
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“Heat pump grant boosted by 50% to improve slow take-up across England and Wales
Extra £2,500 now available for low-carbon air source heat pumps to take installation cost below a gas boiler”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/23/heat-pump-grant-boosted-by-50-to-improve-slow-take-up-across-england-and-wales
It’s only money….
When will they realise – from heat pumps to smart meters to EVs: low public take-up is because the public don’t want them. They offer no advantages to the public, and from the public’s view are often far worse than what we have already. We don’t share their agenda. Bribing us (with our own money) won’t change that.
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Forget the carrot; the public don’t want to fit expensive, ineffective heat pumps. We’re fond of our gas boilers which actually keep us warm in winter and are relatively cheap to run, especially if you’re using them to provide piping hot water. So, bring on the stick if incentives fail. Net Zero is beginning to look indistinguishable from fascism.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1826608/heat-pumps-gas-boiler-tax
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“Nobody wants a heat pump, no matter how large the bribes
It’s time the Government stopped throwing good money after bad”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/24/heat-pumps-boiler-upgrade-scheme-grant/
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The high temperature heat pump revolution (models plugged by Octopus for example) is not going to happen and the uptake of low temperature air source heat pumps is going to continue to be low for as long as electricity costs remain high in relation to gas and the cost of installing a heat pump (plus associated plumbing works) greatly exceeds the cost of installing a new gas boiler.
https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/heat-pumps/high-temperature-air-source-heat-pumps
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“School Told to Remove Heat Pumps That Are So Loud Neighbours Are “Unable to Open Windows””
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/11/17/school-told-to-remove-heat-pumps-that-are-so-loud-neighbours-are-unable-to-open-windows/
Paul Homewood is on this too:
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I was walking past a primary school the other day, which I’ve walked past many times. This occasion however I noticed a very loud fan running which I’ve not heard before. I couldn’t see whether it was a newly installed heat pump fan, but with the way things are, it could well have been. It was making an absolute racket and I thought to myself how awful it would be to live next to that.
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“Homeowners Fume Over ‘Droning’ New Eco-Heaters Being Installed Across U.K.”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/11/19/homeowners-fume-over-droning-new-eco-heaters-being-installed-across-u-k/
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Not sure about the headline:
“House Buyers in Scotland Set to Be Forced to Rip Out Gas Boilers and Install Heat Pumps Within Two Years of Purchase”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/11/29/house-buyers-in-scotland-set-to-be-forced-to-rip-out-gas-boilers-and-install-heat-pumps-within-two-years-of-purchase/
To my mind, this was the interesting (and revealing) bit:
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“German heat pump rollout at risk as government suspends climate subsidies
Move could also undermine nine funding programmes, covering schemes from energy efficient homes to cargo bikes provision”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/german-heat-pump-rollout-at-risk-as-government-ends-climate-subsidies
It seems, then, that Germans aren’t particularly keen on heat pumps either, take-up being heavily dependent on their palms being greased with silver first. Or perhaps it’s the practical issue that’s the problem, the one that Robin regularly highlights:
It also appears that there is a backlash against the attempt to force heat pumps on people who don’t want them:
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Just as with cars, our eco-Communist government is attempting to fix the market and force consumers and manufacturers to adopt THEIR preferences. The agenda is clear in both cases: to centrally monitor and control access to energy (electricity) for the purpose of travel and home heating. Gas boilers, oil fired boilers and ICE vehicles do not allow the government to impose that fine level of control and monitoring via smart metering. But there’s a problem – they are imposing punitive financial measures on manufacturers and customers for making the ‘wrong’ choice, but if customers make the ‘right’ choice, they end up with a far less efficient and useful product AND which costs them more to purchase AND which will cost them more to maintain and run because electricity prices (already 3 times the cost of natural gas) will continue to rise and it is very doubtful whether the cost of batteries will fall significantly. Also, and very importantly, if customers make the ‘right’ choice, they hand over power to the government and private corporations to micromanage their lives. Caught between a rock and a hard place, there can only be trouble ahead.
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Interesting:
“EU Commission postpones heat pump plan until after the EU elections”
https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/miscellaneous/eu-commission-postpones-heat-pump-plan-until-20231220
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An interesting analysis by Paul Homewood:
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More from Paul H on the implications for the UK of a heat pump roll-out:
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Is there a sceptic lurking in the BBC? This article contains so much stuff that sounds sceptic-made, that I wonder what the BBC thinks it’s doing:
“Will hotter heat pumps win over homeowners?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67511954
Thus the article commences with an admission that the heat pumps they have been trying to force on us to date are inadequate.
Which sounds like an admission that the heat pumps they have been urging on us to date are “potentially damaging in climate terms”.
CO2? And if there’s a leak?
So perhaps not that great after all.
Hence the need for another BBC puff piece, I suppose.
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Mark, it’s slowly dawning on them that they can’t have their cake and eat it. For heat pumps to gain widespread popularity in the UK, they will have to heat EXISTING radiators to a reasonable temperature, more efficiently, for about the same or less cost than gas boiler fired central heating systems. Unlike in Scandinavia, air to air source heat pumps are not going to be widely adopted or retro-fitted into the unsuitable UK housing stock and the cost of retro-fitting larger radiators to benefit from lower water temperatures is going to be prohibitive for most and probably not practical. To break even with running costs, because of the very high (and rising) cost of electricity, the COP of your heat pump is going to have to be between 3 and 4. If the outside temperature dips below zero and/or if you want decent hot water from your system for washing, that is going to be unachievable:
You are NEVER going to achieve a COP of between 3 and 4 if you opt for an air heat pump which supplies domestic hot water at the temperatures so easily and relatively cheaply achieved by gas-fired boilers. If you fit a conventional air to water heat pump, you will have to fork out for new radiators AND you will have to install an electric immersion tank for hot water. Whichever way you look at it, installing a heat pump in the UK, especially in the colder regions further north, is a lose-lose proposition. Economics and physics will not be on your side. Then there’s the noise issue . . . . .
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A typical Guardian headline, and indeed they do manage to find a couple of enthusiasts who claim to be pleased that they installed heat pumps:
“Greener, cheaper, much warmer’ – heat pump owners laud their new system
Report finds users even in Victorian properties and older rural homes are noticing cheaper bills and warmer homes”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/08/greener-cheaper-much-warmer-heat-pump-owners-laud-their-new-system
However, read on, and even the Guardian has to report that others have encountered problems and are very unhappy. The whole article is a puff piece. It talks about the positive findings of a report, as though this is a new development, but follow the link offered in support, and you will find that this is a report from earlier last year, which I have already debunked in a previous article. Desperate stuff from the Guardian.
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This article is a puff piece, mostly about solar installations (as its heading suggests), but it includes a risible effort to big up heat pump installation rates:
“Installation of rooftop solar panels in UK hits 12-year high in 2023
Industry data shows almost 190,000 installed last year as well as record number of heat pump installations”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/installation-of-rooftop-solar-panels-uk-12-year-high-2023-record-number-of-heat-pumps
There are 27 million households (or thereabouts) in the UK. How are those heat pump installations going?
Amazing. After all that expense to the taxpayer in the form of subsidies, we’re still less than 1% of the way there. Meanwhile:
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Last year, 39 percent fewer water-based heat pumps were sold compared to the previous year, according to new figures from the Danish Energy Agency.
This completes a disastrous year for heat pump sales and the necessary green transition of society [sic], says Tekniq Arbejdsgiverne in a press release.
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They’re getting increasingly desperate, it seems:
As so often, Paul sums it up nicely:
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“Environmentally friendly heat pumps hit slump in Europe, says lobby group
Sales fell 5% over 14 countries for which data exists, according to the European Heat Pump Association”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/27/environmentally-friendly-heat-pumps-hit-slump-in-europe-says-lobby-group
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The Tories do have a death wish – the death of the UK. That’s why they’re engineering their own demise so Starmer’s Labour can take over with a huge and unassailable majority. The parliamentary Uniparty is about to lose its fake veneer of Government and Opposition, which has served it so well over the years to convince gullible voters that there exists a democratic choice and a viable Opposition to the governing party.
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A small article in last week’s Spectator reported:
The Heat Pump Association estimates there are approx 275,000 in UK homes – c.1% of the total.
Nearly 37,000 were installed last year (govt figure).
The mean cost of an ASHP under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme was £13,300 (before grant); for a GSHP the cost was £27,500.
Those cost figures are likely to be “best case”, aisi, because the industry will naturally focus on the most suitable homes and avoid difficult cases.
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“Most homes will need heat pumps, Welsh government says”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51yqvg0z04o
Heat pumps will need to be installed in the vast majority of Welsh homes to meet climate targets, the Welsh government has said.
However, the government’s new heat strategy stops short of saying if or when oil and gas boilers will be banned, acknowledging the switch was still “beyond the means” of many.
It said it would focus on making it easier to opt for the greener tech with financial incentives and changes to planning rules, among other things….
...Mr Evans said the effort to install technology such as heat pumps in older properties was likely to be a much bigger challenge.
“Heat pumps don’t work all the time in existing stock because heat pumps work best in underfloor heating so in existing homes – [it’s a] massive challenge. “
He said it would take about £30,000 to £50,000 per property to upgrade existing homes to an EPC A rating.
“You’re talking about billions of pounds,” he said….
The BBC opened this one up for a “Have Your Say”. By and large, comments are extremely negative.
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“Don’t Fall for the Government’s Latest Heat Pump Con”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/07/18/dont-fall-for-the-governments-latest-heat-pump-con/
One of the great problems facing the policy – proposed by both Labour and Conservative – to decarbonise domestic heat by replacing gas boilers with heat pumps is that it’s fundamentally uneconomic. As I pointed out in a recent paper for GWPF, while air-source heat pumps are, on average, three times as efficient as gas boilers, electricity is four times the price of gas, so unless your installation is much more efficient than the norm, you will not see operating cost reductions from a heat pump, let alone pay back the extra capital cost.
One of the wheezes dreamt up to address this issue is to remove all the renewables subsidy costs from electricity bills. This has been suggested by the Climate Change Committee today, and the simultaneous picking up of the idea by the BBC and others suggests a fully fledged Green Blob campaign in support of the idea is under way.
Given that the subsidies are for, well, electricity generation, the policy would further divorce consumer bills from the underlying economic realities, and it would therefore be expected to cause harm to the public at large, but it’s interesting to consider just how much harm....
...The installation subsidies and the shifting of renewables levies onto gas bills (if it happens) can only ever be temporary. The installation subsidy is already only available to those replacing gas boilers, of course; next time round, you will pay full whack. Similarly, once everyone has a heat pump, the windfarms are still going to want their subsidies, and so the levies are going to have to go onto electricity bills.
This means, at some point in the future, the innocents who have, at Mr. Miliband’s prompting, dutifully ripped out their gas boilers in favour of a heat pump, will suddenly find that their bills have soared. The cheap energy prices that lured them in will be gone. And when the time comes to replace the heat pump unit, it will cost many thousands of pounds more than it did the last time round.
The Government is engaged in a classic bait and switch – possibly the greatest bait-and-switch of all time.
Don’t fall for it.
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Paywalled FT article:
“Europeans cool on heat pumps Sales of alternatives to gas boilers drop across EU amid dwindling subsidies”
Maybe someone has seen more on this?
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“Heat-Pump Sales Plummet by Almost 50% Across Europe”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/09/27/heat-pump-sales-plummet-by-almost-50-across-europe/
Just 765,000 heat pumps were sold in 2024 across the 13 European countries that represent 80% of the market, the European Heat Pump Association said.
Over the same period in 2023, 1.44 million heat pumps were sold in countries including France, Italy, Germany and Sweden.
It means fewer than 1.5 million heat pumps are likely to be sold in 2024, which is the lowest level since 2019.
Sales were hit by dropping gas prices, which soared after Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, wavering government subsidies and the cost of living crisis.
After the war began, the EU set a target of installing at least 10 million more heat pumps by 2027 as part of efforts to lessen its dependence on Russian gas but a subsequent boom in sales is now over.
The U.K. Government is reported to be planning to introduce heat-pump targets in Britain next year in what has been branded a “boiler tax” on households.
Homeowners in countries such as Germany rebelled against government drives to install more of the green technology, which is expensive to set up, during the cost of living crisis.
Olaf Scholz’s under-fire coalition has since watered down its proposals to make heat pumps compulsory from 2024 in the face of public anger.
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The Department of Energy Insecurity and Net Zero intelligence posted on X today that heat pumps generate three times as much energy as they consume, which would be a miracle because it would mean they are creating energy out of nothing, which violates the law of conservation of energy. But they’re too thick to realise that all that heat pumps do is move energy from the air or ground into your home and they can do that quite economically in terms of energy used. That’s it. Gas boilers are totally different. They generate heat by releasing chemical energy via combustion. This means that they can never be more than 100% efficient and so the comparison to heat pumps, which just move energy from one place to another, is not valid.
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Gawd help us, Jaime.
Meanwhile these folks are really busy. I gather that Great British Energy now has a Facebook page. That’ll do it!
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Interesting report by Kathryn Porter on the potential of hybrid heat pumps:
https://watt-logic.com/2024/10/04/heat-pumps-report/
As usual, she does a good job of analysing the situation and the options. The govt’s approach does not come out well – no surprise!
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Thanks Mike . Sorry, I have been busy today, and have only just spotted this comment trapped in spam
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Mike,
Heat pumps use electricity to provide both heating and cooling to buildings . . . . .
Actually, you can get something called a gas absorption heat pump which runs on gas and doesn’t need a compressor and therefore is a lot quieter than an electric heat pump. They are also more efficient and able to easily heat water to 65C and they use less gas than a high efficiency condensing gas boiler to deliver the same amount of heat. They can run on natural gas (methane) or liquefied petroleum gas, meaning that you could even use them in areas with no mains gas supply. Much better I would have thought than going for the costly and inefficient solution of installing an electric heat pump and a gas boiler.
The gas fitter has suggested that my old gas boiler doesn’t need replacing after all, so why spend money installing a new one? If the time comes when it does need replacing though, I’m seriously thinking about installing a Robur k18 heat pump.
https://www.roburheatpumps.co.uk/products/heating-only/robur-k18-mini-air-source/
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“Stop pushing heat pumps or face major backlash, green energy magnate tells Labour
Party donor Dale Vince warns that urging homeowners to switch to clean-power technology risks political storm bigger than Ulez”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/12/stop-pushing-heat-pumps-backlash-green-energy-magnate-labour-ulez
The government risks a huge political backlash if it keeps pushing the public to install heat pumps to replace their boilers, one of Britain’s leading green entrepreneurs has warned.Dale Vince, a major Labour donor and renewable energy advocate, called on Keir Starmer to rethink national programmes, championed by Boris Johnson, pushing the technology.
Vince argued that Whitehall should explore alternatives to the devices, which he said were expensive, caused serious disruption and could end up increasing energy bills for some people.…
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“We were left out in the cold over a faulty heat pump installation
Trying to get some redress from green energy installers when things go wrong is a long, hard slog”
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/oct/21/we-were-left-out-in-the-cold-over-a-faulty-heat-pump-installation
Two years ago I signed a £14,409 contract for a heat pump installation and paid the deposit. Three weeks after the pump was fitted, the company that installed it, Omni Heat and Power, went into liquidation. It had been due to return to repair damage to the pump’s casing, and I had not yet paid the balance. I paid the pump manufacturer Grant Engineering UK to do the repairs and, as I had not received the promised seven-year guarantee from Omni, I decided to purchase an extended warranty from Grant.
Within two months, the pump developed a fault and kept switching off, leaving us without heating or hot water. Several technician visits and a £1,000 flushing of the system did not help. Grant Engineering blamed the installation rather than the equipment, and refused to honour the warranty or advise on remedies.
It seems heat pump installers and manufacturers are not in an integrated supply chain as for a gas boiler system, and customers with a problem can be left with nowhere to turn if the installer goes bust.
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Jaime: apologies, I’ve only just spotted* your post of Oct 7th about gas absorption heat pumps – very interesting. I’m guessing they are more expensive than a standard boiler but, if they really are so much more economic to run than a condensing boiler, the savings when replacing an old boiler should give a quick payback.
I replaced my 20+ year old boiler a couple of years ago with a new condensing one. The gas savings have been significant.
*Am I alone in finding it hard to return to threads once they drop off the front page? Some of the titles are a bit cryptic!
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Mike, you may have a point there. A redesign of the sidebar might be possible.
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Mike H,
That’s encouraging news about the gas savings. Our old gas boiler (a third of a century old) has just given up the ghost and we are having a new condensing boiler fitted right now. 😊
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An unexpected hazard with ground-source heat pumps:
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/07/two-people-killed-in-house-explosion-after-heat-pump-borehole-releases-methane-gas/
Given that drillers working nearby hit a methane pocket a few months before this explosion, it’s surprising that existing boreholes in the area were not checked. Makes me wonder if there may be more, especially at properties on top of coal fields, for example.
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Mike H, this isn’t fundamental of course, but it’s worrying. The absence (so far as I can see) of this story being reported by the BBC and the Guardian is rather glaring and problematic too.
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“Gas Boilers Banned in New Homes From 2027”
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/11/gas-boilers-banned-in-new-homes-from-2027/
…Currently only about 35,000 heat pumps are installed each year. Boosting that to 300,000 a year, nearly 10 times more, in three years seems like a stretch. The bigger problem of course is that people don’t like heat pumps because they don’t heat the house or water very well and, with electricity prices high, are not cheap to run.
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Mark; “Boosting that to 300,000 a year, nearly 10 times more, in three years seems like a stretch.” That’s quite an understatement! I very much doubt there are anywhere near the numbers of qualified installers needed, nor the supply chain, to support such an expansion.
Also, for a new-build, it may well be preferable to choose air-to-air systems rather than air-to-water, as used in retrofits. Afaik there is very little experience of that technology in the UK.
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“Heat pump scheme for Edwardian social housing aims to bust low-carbon myths
The Sutton Dwellings estate in London may offer councils a ‘blueprint’ for ground source heating”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/heat-pump-scheme-for-edwardian-social-housing-aims-to-bust-low-carbon-myths
Some of the earliest examples of purpose-built social housing in the UK can still be found tucked away along central London’s more affluent streets. Built in Edwardian baroque style, the Sutton Dwellings in Chelsea are perhaps an unlikely site for an innovative scheme at the new frontier of Britain’s low-carbon journey.
This winter more than 80 of the estate’s flats will be warmed by heat pumps that tap the warmth of the earth well below the streets of central London.
The scheme’s 27 boreholes burrow deep into the ground directly beneath the estate to where piped water is warmed and fed to a network of “shoebox” heat pumps in a cupboard in each flat. Here, each heat pump – roughly the size of a gas boiler – tops up the heat of the water pipes so that each household can control their own heating, setting it to their preference or using thermostats.
The scheme was completed in late autumn as part of a refurbishment of the more than 100-year-old block of flats, confounding the myths around the UK’s heat pump roll out, such as claims that they do not work in older buildings. It aims to show that heat pumps are not only for newer buildings and that ground source heat pumps are not only for homes with extensive outdoor space….
I see at least three unanswered questions here. First, we aren’t told what the capital cost was. Second, we aren’t told what the running costs will be, and how much – if anything – might be saved by the residents of the flats. Both pieces of information are vital to enable an intelligent assessment as to whether this makes financial sense. Third, maybe it’s just me, but I found the choice of language to be rather strange: “…each heat pump – roughly the size of a gas boiler – tops up the heat of the water pipes so that each household can control their own heating…”. Does that mean that the ground-source heat pump is the sole method of heating, or is it topping-up some other heat source?
At least the Guardian did call out some other issues (not that you would guess it from their relentlessly upbeat headlines about net zero, heat pumps etc – you have to read well into any Guardian article to discover that their might be caveats:
...Less than two miles from Sutton Dwellings at the Lillington Gardens estate in Pimlico, residents are deeply sceptical. Here, leaseholders have been warned by Westminster city council that they could face bills of between £30,000 and £66,000 each to replace its buckling heat network. The council has proposed a low-carbon scheme that would cost up to £185m and help the local authority reach its target of becoming net zero by 2030.
In the 1960s, the Lillington heat network was once at the vanguard of low-carbon home heating, making use of the waste heat emitted by miles of underground pipes from the nearby Battersea power station. Since then the network has come to rely on centrally located gas boilers and has fallen into disrepair, leaving residents to battle burst pipes, hot water leaks and sewage spills.
The Labour-led council has blamed “historic underinvestment” for the failure of the heat network and said it is costing £3.5m a year in insurance to manage the “constant leaks that have negatively affected the lives of residents”. The councillor Liza Begum said the council was working with residents to urgently find a long-term solution, and reduce the costs for residents and leaseholders...
…Households connected to communal or district heat networks are often paying twice as much for their heat as those with their own gas boiler, according to Heat Trust. The consumer champion for heat network users has urged the government to help lower their costs by bringing in two reforms: first to extend the energy price cap to include homes connected to a heat network, and second, to provide support to help cover the costs of repairing old heat networks….
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“Government to relax noise restrictions on heat pumps for net zero
Ed Miliband’s department also lifting size limit on unsightly boxes”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/government-to-relax-noise-restrictions-on-heat-pumps/
Noise restrictions on heat pumps are to be relaxed in the pursuit of net zero…
Behind the Telegraph paywall, unfortunately, but the headlines tells us enough. If only this mad government was as focused on sorting out the economy and the myriad other problems the country faces as it is on throwing the kitchen sink at net zero and ruining our lives in the process. I see they’re pressing ahead with the boiler tax, too. Thank goodness we’ve just had a new gas boiler installed (and recently purchased a new diesel car).
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Mark; aiui, they are persisting with the boiler tax but the fines will be cut back to £500 per boiler “oversold”, down from £5000 originally which was later reduced to £3000.
I am waiting for the whole policy to run aground when capacity limitations in local distribution networks start restricting the installation of heat pumps – and EV chargers for that matter.
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So, your neighbour will not need planning permission to install a noisy condenser fan right next to the boundary with your property and they will be given £7500 from your taxes to pay towards it! Whilst you are sitting in bed at night, unable to sleep because of the noise of the fan running constantly on a cold, still evening, this will give you something to think about. The only way you might get some sleep is if the council deems the installation to be a statutory noise nuisance, which is a very hit and miss procedure, depending on the council, and if your council is fully signed up to the declaration of a ‘climate emergency’ you haven’t got a hope in hell of obtaining a legally binding noise abatement order. So you build a 15 foot high brick wall and the council tell you to take it down!
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Or you install a grass sprinkler system which is much needed in UK winters & just happens to be near the neighbours heat pump.
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“Parliament Heat Pump Drive Suspended Over “Noise Complaints””
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/02/16/parliament-heat-pump-drive-suspended-over-noise-complaints/
Parliament has quietly shelved its heat pump rollout over noise and power concerns – despite Labour insisting the rest of Britain must adopt them!
The Telegraph has the story.There are three air source heat pumps in the House of Commons buildings, but no new installations have been made since 2022, according to data released under the Freedom of Information Act.
And a report – seen by the the Telegraph – into the feasibility of installing a new heat pump into the modern office block, Portcullis House, raised significant concerns over their acoustics and power supply.
It has plunged Labour into a fresh hypocrisy row as opposition MPs said it was proof heat pumps “don’t work” – despite the Government’s push to install them into residential homes.
Richard Tice, Reform MP, said: “Parliament has installed three heat pumps, and every one of them has faced complaints for consuming too much electricity and generating excessive noise.“
Despite this, Labour pushes ahead with forcing the rest of us to adopt them, while refusing to use heat pumps themselves.
”One parliamentary staffer said that Portcullis House was “always freezing”, and that their colleagues often complained about their working conditions….
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“Heat pump sales in Europe fall 23% to pre-Ukraine war levels
Growth in 2022 and 2023 was driven by soaring gas prices caused by Russia’s invasion, but 2024 saw sales slump”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/18/heat-pump-sales-in-europe-fall-23-to-pre-ukraine-war-levels
Heat pump sales fell 23% in Europe last year, industry data shows, reverting to the level they were at before the war in Ukraine and slowing the shift away from gas-burning boilers.
Demand for clean heating devices fell by about half in Belgium and Germany, and by 39% in France, according to data for 13 countries that cover 85% of the European heat pump market.
The only country to buck the trend was the UK, where sales rose 63% between 2023 and 2024….
...“The very strong growth that appeared in 2022 and 2023 – war-related and gas price-related – didn’t have a foundation in robust policy,” said Paul Kenny, director general of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA)….
...The EHPA said the fall in sales in 2024 was driven by political uncertainty and changes to support schemes in a handful of key markets, as well as a sluggish economy leading to an overall drop in heating installations.
Analysts said the shift could be a rebound effect after two unusually good years for the industry but struggled to explain the scale of the drop….
…The slump has also hit manufacturers. The EHPA said the heat pump sector has invested billions in additional capacity since the start of the war but “much of this capacity now lies idle”. It estimated at least 4,000 jobs have been cut, and a further 6,000 workers face reduced hours or other impacts.
It called on the European Commission and national governments to put heat pumps at the centre of the clean industrial deal next week, which seeks to align the EU’s climate, competitiveness and geopolitics goals.…
It’s the same old story. Heat pumps would fly off the shelves if they represented value for money and an improvement. They sell in any numbers at all only if they are foisted on the public and if subsidised by other taxpayers.
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“My Neighbour’s Heat Pump is So Noisy We Can’t Sleep and the Doctor Says it’s Making My Mum’s Disability Worse”
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/02/19/my-neighbours-heat-pump-is-so-noisy-we-cant-sleep-and-the-doctor-says-it-is-making-my-mums-disability-worse/
…Anna’s next-door-but-one neighbour installed the device on an exterior wall of her property in December 2023.
But Anna claims the heat pump has been emitting a “horrible” vibrating noise ever since, which is having a “terrible psychological effect” on her and her mother.
It comes as experts have warned that Labour’s push to the eco-devices risks a slew of noise complaints in built-up areas that will turn neighbourhoods into “war zones”.
The Government last year relaxed planning permission on heat pumps, which can create a buzzing noise of up to 60 decibels, roughly the equivalent of a restaurant or an office.
Exasperated homeowners told the Telegraph that they had taken legal action against neighbours, and were planning to sell their homes to escape the “unbearable” hum.…
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Unfortunately, this lady and her elderly mother are not MPs:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/no-sleep-night-neighbour-noisy-heat-pump/
I did an MSc in environmental acoustics. I think what’s happening here is that the surrounding properties have set up a resonant standing wave pattern generated by the noise from this heat pump and Anna’s house is unfortunately situated at an antinode (point of maximum amplitude). Her immediate neighbour’s property is conversely, a node (point of minimum amplitude). She could try erecting a wall or something to break up the standing wave but then her immediate neighbour might get the brunt of the noise! The best solution is to ban noisy heat pumps.
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Ha, you beat me to it by three minutes Mark!
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Jaime J: from your expert knowledge, could some form of dynamic noise cancelling be a solution?
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That might work Mike, but I’m no expert!
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According to Energy Voice:
“Heat pumps to be sold with ‘smart’ function under plans to save households money”
Yeah, right….clearly a euphemism for controlling demand.
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Mike, I thought they had to run constantly!
I do like the Orwellian language. Double plus good.
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