There is no null hypothesis
On 12 August 2020 a 125 hit a landslip near Stonehaven, killing three and injuring 6 (there were only 9 on the train; the pandemic meant that few people were travelling). Today we found out why:
Faulty drainage work blamed for fatal Stonehaven derailment
Apparently,
A drainage system was installed in 2011 and 2012 by now-collapsed contractor Carillion – but it was not in accordance with the design. Had it been constructed correctly, it was “highly likely to have safely accommodated the flow of surface water” on the day of the crash, the report concluded.
But a memory stirred sluggishly below the surface of my mind. Wasn’t this tragedy blamed almost instantly on climate change? 12 August 2020, the date of the crash itself:
Three dead after passenger train derails near Stonehaven
Scrolling down, we find analysis by David Shukman, Science Editor. Quoth the sage:
It’s long been recognised that landslips are one of the greatest risks to Britain’s railways and that a changing climate will make them more likely. Heatwaves and droughts can dry out the steep embankments beside the tracks, and over the years will start to weaken them. Add to that the effects of heavy rain, of the kind seen just now in Scotland, saturating and eroding the soil, and undermining its strength. And with rising global temperatures set to bring extremes of weather never anticipated by the Victorian engineers who built the lines, Network Rail has been studying how best to keep the tracks safe. But it admits that “we know we can’t rebuild every mile of railway”.
So dry is bad, and so is wet. (I’ve removed the line breaks from the above quote. Every paragraph was formed of a single sentence, including the one beginning “and.” )
After a month Network Rail released an interim report, described thusly by the BBC:
Stonehaven derailment: Report says climate change impact on railways ‘accelerating’
Not much wriggle room there. But on this occasion the BBC is accurately reporting what Network Rail said:
The report notes: “Climate change considerations are being embedded in our standards and planning. “But it is clear from the impact of severe weather events experienced in recent years that this is an area that is accelerating faster than our assumptions, and as a result it has become even more important to implement these plans.”
Scrolling down, we have analysis by Kevin Keane, Environment Correspondent. Quoth the junior sage:
Technology is being developed, like more detailed rainfall forecasting and movement sensors for the most ‘at risk’ sites. But until then it hints that more speed restrictions will be introduced during the heaviest rain along with line closures to allow for inspections. So you can add climate change to the list of potential reasons for your train being delayed.
Conclusion
If something bad happens, it’s because of climate change. There is no null hypothesis that it might have happened anyway. There certainly isn’t an alternate hypothesis, for example that an improperly installed drain might have had something to do with it.
Featured Image
A snip from the Rail Accident Investigation Branch’s animation of the derailment, to be found in today’s story from the BBC.
Climate Scepticism 
As chance would have it I was on that train.
And if you believe that you’ll also believe that climate change had anything to do with it.
Man-made climate change, caused specifically by our greenhouse gas emissions, I mean, of course.
But the shortened form is snappier, and so usefully imprecise as a blame-shifting motif, eh Mr Shukman and Messrs Network Rail?
Well remembered JT.
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As I quoted above, in September 2020 Network Rail was saying:
Today, the Guardian:
Fewer climate change astrologers and more competent groundworks engineers perhaps?
==
Richard, did we meet at Woodstock?
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We are going to need to read everything that blames climate change, and then remember it years later when it turns out that “it” was due to something else.
I await the big story on the BBC website explaining that it wasn’t the climate wot dun it.
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Jit: I’m offended you have to ask.
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You can read the actual RAIB report synopsis here:
Click to access R022022_220310_Carmont_Synopsis.pdf
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Paul Homewood also has the same story:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/03/10/wrongly-built-drainage-system-led-to-stonehaven-train-crash-not-climate-change/
Seems like he beat me to it, too, so I could have saved myself half an hour.
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Yes, but I’ve given you a plug over there. Hope you don’t mind. 🙂
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Paul’s posts from the time of the crash and shortly afterwards are valuable – and now verified.
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Jit & Mark – I Followed this story on NALOPKT back when it happened & remember one comment near the top from August 14, 2020 –
“RuddyFarmer August 14, 2020 10:28 am
I used to live very close to the accident site and am familiar with the local geology and flash flooding. The soil in that area is a heavy clay. This does not absorb water quickly so after heavy rain the burns (rivers, streams) can rapidly rise causing flooding as was the case in the nearby town of Stonehaven.
In the aerial photos I could not see a river near where the landslip occurred. This suggests to me (I’m not an expert) a build up of water underneath the embankment which could have given way if the underground water pressure increased. This may have been due to a blocked drain. I believe (though i’m not sure) that blocked drains have been an issue on that railway before, and the images of flooded tracks could confirm blocked drains.”
I Love when (I’m not an expert) gets it more or less correct.
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There are bizarre coincidences
“17 Oct 2000 — Special report: the Hatfield train crash … Another passenger, Justin Rowlatt, a Channel 4 news reporter, said”
Yes Rowlatt was a passenger in a deadly train crash”
.. I suspect he may have suffered brain damage ../sarc
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They’re still at it, spreading their misinformation:
“UK infrastructure at risk from climate crisis due to ‘extreme weakness’ in government
Joint committee on national security strategy criticises ‘severe dereliction of duty’ by ministers as threat grows”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/27/infrastructure-at-risk-from-climate-crisis-due-to-ministers-extreme-weakness
The article itself doesn’t mention the Stonehaven derailment, but it’s accompanied by a picture of it and the following words:
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“Network Rail faces prosecution over fatal 2020 crash near Stonehaven
Case will call at high court in Aberdeen next month, after three people died when ScotRail train derailed”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/22/network-rail-faces-prosecution-over-fatal-2020-crash-near-stonehaven
Not climate change after all, then.
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Definitely not climate change!
“Stonehaven crash: Network Rail fined £6.7m over fatal derailment”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66749546
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Thanks Mark.
This was reported on PM [about 17:04 if you are near the internet], where a soundbite was included from the driver’s father. He was understandably in tears at the loss of his son, and made the point that Network Rail might blame the crash on climate change again instead of their own incompetence.
It brings into focus the self-serving nature of the Network Rail report blaming climate change for the crash (see head post for details).
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Still looking for excuses?
“Network Rail hopes staff will be amateur meteorologists”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68721690
Network Rail is aiming to turn hundreds of staff into “amateur meteorologists” as part of plans to deal with the effects of climate change.
It wants to help staff to interpret weather forecasts to make better decisions during storms or heatwaves.
The public rail body said it will spend £2.8bn over the next five years on efforts to cope with extreme weather.
Its boss Andrew Haines said climate change was “the biggest challenge our railway faces”.
“The extreme weather of the past year that has seen an unprecedented 14 named storms, has taken its toll on our railway – with experts predicting more of the same to come,” he said.
As the Earth’s climate changes due to global warming, weather events such as heatwaves and storms are set to become more intense, and flooding more severe.
It has led to Network Rail, which owns and maintains the railways, “relentlessly” having to rebuild embankments and cuttings due to more landslips caused by heavier rain in a way that its predecessor British Rail never had to, a spokesman said.
The body announced plans to train hundreds of rail controllers at its own “weather academy”, which is a collaboration between Newcastle University, the Met Office, and MetDesk, a private weather forecasting firm….”
I should have thought that never-ending strikes, a knackered infrastructure and a rubbish service are all bigger challenges than climate change. And all that’s unprecedented about 14 named storms is the fact that they have been named.
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Mark – watched that “Network Rail” piece on BBC news & thought the same as you.
Isn’t it handy to now be able to put a number on “named storms” to give the impression (if your so inclined) that they are increasing in the UK.
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I do believe that all Atlantic-facing countries are responsible for naming storms, the naming country selected (according to BBC Weather reports) upon who it is estimated will be badly affected. Not often the British Isles. So our much maligned Met Office can hardly be blamed for any increase. Even British weather forecasts are no longer provided by our own Met.Office.
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Alan, I agree regarding the naming of storms. However, the Met Office still provides Met Office – all that changed recently is that the BBC’s weather forecasts are now supplied by someone else.
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Mark,
“Network Rail hopes staff will be amateur meteorologists”
Oh no! That moment when you realise that the ticket inspector is really Jim Dale and you get a lecture on extreme weather caused by climate breakdown before he punches your ticket!
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“Rail line set to reopen on time following landslip”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyerl34e9w8o
That link takes you to another BBC article where the climate change angle was pushed very hard. However, read in detail, and you find this:
If it was the wettest winter ever then perhaps a case could be made for climate change, but by clear implication there have been wetter winters in the past. And by explicit acknowledgement, we are relying on infrastructure that is well over a century old (possibly a century and a half or more in some cases. Infrastructure that may be lacking maintenance and modernisation. Climate change is such a convenient handle to avoid responsibility, not just in connection with the railways, but everywhere.
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“UK rail faces fight to stay on track as climate crisis erodes routes
Britain’s railways are spending billions on bolstering the tracks against geological movements caused by extreme weather. But technology and new infrastructure will not save every service”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/19/uk-rail-faces-fight-to-stay-on-track-as-climate-crisis-erodes-routes
I may just be an old cynic, but I can’t help thinking that climate change is all too often a convenient excuse for failure, a get out of jail free card.
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Exactly what type of geological movements, capable of damaging railway tracks, are caused by extreme weather?
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Alan – quite!
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I suspect that the problem is that almost all the railway tracks in the UK were constructed in the middle of the 19th century. The Victorians were excellent engineers but the practice of geotechnical engineering was in its infancy and mistakes were undoubtedly made in route selection. They were likely unaware of the potential for large rotational landslides on some of the selected routes. These types of deep landslides are very difficult to remediate with improved drainage. It is known that rotational slides are often triggered by periods of heavy rainfall. So if you believe rainfall amounts are steadily increasing in the UK, then you can invoke climate change as a contributory factor.
Network Rail’s chief executive, Andrew Haines, says technology can help manage the effects, but adds bluntly: “We cannot infrastructure-build our way out of climate change. The price tag is too expensive and it’s too disruptive.”
As the article makes clear these landslide problems have been occurring frequently and certainly as far back as 1915. Moreover the phenomenon of persistence in meteorological events is often overlooked. Rainfall may be well above average for the best part of a decade and then there may be a prolonged drier period. So I disagree that Network Rail needs to “build our way out of climate change”. Rather they need to come to grips with poorly sited rail lines dating from the Victorian era.
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Potentilla, I last visited the land slips at Folkestone as an undergraduate, so c. 60 years ago, and my memories of it are somewhat hazy and incomplete. As you wrote major rotational landslips have occurred throughout history and would have been known, and their danger appreciated long before railway engineers were tasked with linking the important ports of Dover and Folkestone with the rest of the country.
I think you do those engineers a great disservice. The railway had to transit the Folkestone Warren, there was no alternative. They knew what was needed to stabilise the landslips and proceeded to carry out those measures. As far as possible the Chalk was made impermeable by grouting, and as much weight as possible was added to the low lying areas above which the railway passed. Certainly the frequency of landslip movements decreased markedly. When I visited the whole enterprise was presented as a major geoengineering success.
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As usual, you have to dig deeper to get beyond the sensationalist headlines. You’ll no doubt read that the frequency of landslide affecting infrastructure in the UK has ‘increased dramatically due to climate change’. You’ll no doubt read that the simplistic and logical explanation for this is that extreme rainfall events have also increased ‘due to climate change’. What you probably won’t read is that the major deterministic predictor of whether a small scale landslip occurs on a structurally engineered slope is not just extreme rainfall at the time, but also accumulated rainfall occurring up to 3 months before the event in question. What you definitely won’t read is that time itself is also a major indicator of the probability of landslips because of the twin combined factors of long term weathering (successive wetting and drying out of structurally engineered slopes) and the influence of changing land use in the proximity of the structurally engineered slope, totally unrelated to weather or climate. So Andrew Haines’ barefaced opportunistic and politically motivated assertion should instead read:
What you also won’t read is that the number of reports of landslides has increased dramatically as a direct result of British Geological Scientists collecting data from social media sites such as Twitter! It’s all here, but as we know, climate alarmists are loathe to acquaint themselves with mundane truths, preferring instead to air their ‘expertise’ on the impacts of an imaginary climate crisis instead.
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Jaime,
As usual, you have to dig deeper to get beyond the sensationalist headlines.
Yes I know, but it becomes very wearisome. When I had read the headline, my first thoughts were:
a) Has there been any change in the way in which landslips are monitored and reported that may account for at least some of the recent trend?
b) What other factors cause landslips, apart from local weather conditions? Have there been any trends there?
c) To what extent does routine maintenance bear upon the incidence of landslips and has there been any historical negligence in that respect?
Only after finding answers to the above questions would I feel confident in drawing conclusions. But finding answers to the above is very difficult, and it shouldn’t be our job anyway. If journalists were doing theirs, instead of endorsing the simplistic dialogue all the time, then we might all be better informed.
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John – “If journalists were doing their job” – think we know they/most all just cut & paste from somewhere else, job done.
May have mentioned it before, but on TV news I watch BBC & ITV for news hoping they may have a different slant on the days news, only to hear the same almost word for word.
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df. Try channel 4 news. Does not always guarantee a better slant, but its greater length commonly produces a longer and more diverse coverage. This was recognised by awarding the best news BAFTA last year.
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John,
Journalists stopped ‘doing their job’ years ago. Mostly, they exist now to promote the authorised narrative. It’s people like us who are left to do their job, unpaid and largely under-appreciated.
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Jaime,
largely under-appreciated
No, largely vilified!
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Alan: The engineering work on the Warren doesn’t sound like a major engineering success according to the article in the Guardian:
the undulation is clear on the line emerging between the tunnels here. For safety, a 20mph speed limit has been imposed and high-speed trains that reach 140mph a few miles north on their way to London now crawl along, the ends of the carriages visibly lifting and falling as they pass over the dip
With a 75m deep inclinometer installed it must be a huge landslide and very difficult to remediate.
In favourable terrain, Victorian engineers made embankment side slope angles steeper than they would be constructed today to minimize the material required. Quality control of materials was not meticulous and there were weak standards of compliance. Material taken from a cutting was often used to create the embankment even though the material may not have been suitable.
Engineering standards, design criteria and factors of safety have all been continually upgraded over the past 100 years or more. Geotechnical investigations are much more rigorous and analytical techniques significantly improved. The inevitable result is increased costs of construction but much more reliable infrastructure. If the Victorian engineers had been tasked with building HS2 it would have been finished by now!
Periods of heavy rainfall expose the limitations of the Victorian railway construction methods. Climate change is a poor excuse for the embankment failures and landslides on the UK rail network.
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Yes one would hope and expect geoengineering to improve over time as regulations took hold and understanding improved. I don’t know when an understanding of the nature of rotational landslips became known but Victorian railway engineers did understand the link between rainfall and slippages and strove to minimise water ingress through the Chalk. I doubt very much if modern-day engineers can be confident of preventing future slippages so, given that the railway has to traverse the Warren and future slippages are likely I cannot see what extra can be done.
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Not about rail-side drains this but rail-side trees.
“Network Rail ‘wrongly’ felled 300 trees”
Network Rail workers saw anything resembling a tree near the line in Higham, and took exception to it.
It’s an offence under the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981, Part 1, Section 1, giving it the prominence it is due. Here is the relevant text, with other matters edited out by YT.
Any person who intentionally
Is guilty of an offence (up to 6 months in jail, plus a fine).
Next, the pathetic excuse:
I hope Derbyshire Police are aware of this sorry tale.
Telegraph link.
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“Rail services in parts of England are cut as tracks disturbed by lack of moisture
South Western Railway says some trains cannot travel at full speed after sunniest spring in more than 100 years”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/aug/04/rail-services-england-cut-dry-embankments-disturb-track
Rail services in parts of southern England are being reduced because embankments have shrunk and disturbed the track after the sunniest spring in more than a century.
Trains are unable to travel at full speed over embankments in Dorset and Devon that have contracted because of a lack of moisture in the soil…..
The Guardian can’t help itself. At the end of the article, we get this:
…Network Rail is spending almost £3bn over the period 2024-29 to tackle the effects of climate change, having already increased its budget to maintain earthworks in the wake of the Stonehaven disaster, when heavy rain and poor drainage led to a landslip.
Poor drainage gets a mention, but the impression created (no doubt deliberately) is that the Stonehaven disaster was due to climate change, when it wasn’t.
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I read that as saying climate change caused the Stonehaven disaster. I would say it’s disappointing, but it’s not: it’s what I expect from them nowadays.
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