In Lessons From History I made the point that those who would unilaterally pursue Net Zero as rapidly as possible while taking no notice of whether or not the rest of the world is doing likewise, really should contemplate the history of the 1930s. Sadly, despite the passing of more than four years and a change of UK government since I penned that piece, the Net Zero unilateralists still hold sway (though at least we now have an official opposition party which has woken up and is beginning to question the wisdom of such dangerous unilateralism).

Other lessons could and should be learned from history. Most obviously, that extreme weather is nothing new. The flood (pun intended) of alarmist articles at the Guardian shows no sign of abating. One of the latest tried to scare readers with yet another sensationalist headline: “Under water, in denial: is Europe drowning out the climate crisis?” The thrust of the article is that floods in Europe are becoming more frequent, that they are worse, indeed that in some cases they are “unprecedented”. However, despite this, “a quiet but deadly form of denial has emerged”. There has been a follow-up article too, and this finally stirred me from my lethargy to look a little deeper. I thought it worth comparing the examples offered up by the Guardian with what is known about similar incidents in similar locations in the past.

Iberia

The article first brings up the appalling and frequent flooding that has occurred in Spain and Portugal in recent years. The terrible impact of these floods should not be denied. Climate alarmists will say that whatever has happened in the past, current events are worse and more frequent, and that’s because of climate change caused by humanity. In saying that, they definitely have a point, but is it really a good one? When examining the historic record, in order to put such claims in context, it should be borne in mind that populations in the past were smaller, news travelled less easily then than now, and in those days there was no 24/7/365 rolling news, no smartphones and no internet. When suggesting that terrible floods are occurring more frequently and/or affecting more people or causing more financial loss now than in the past, these factors must all be borne in mind. Noting that, we can now look at the historical record.

The history of Iberian floods makes for grim reading. They are certainly nothing new. If one asks our new search assistant, ChatGPT to produce evidence, it turns up an astonishing list of such events. But that’s lazy, and not necessarily trustworthy. We’re always being told we should rely upon proper peer-reviewed studies, so I searched for those. The first one I turned up is from 2021 and is titled “Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)”. Investigating flood events in respect of a single Spanish river, its abstract tells us:

A comprehensive flood record of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentary sources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanning the last 500 years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minute books (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphic marks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events over the period 1250 to 1871, of which 15 were classified as catastrophic floods, 16 as extraordinary floods and 38 as ordinary floods….The historical flood records show the largest floods over the last 500 years occurred in 1860, 1597 and 1739. Moreover, at least 24 floods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900 m3 s−1during the period (1500–1871)….

Furthermore:

A recent pan-European historical archive analysis has identified nine flood-rich periods (30–40-year interval) over the last 500 years, all except the last one (1992–2016) occurring during intervals of colder air temperatures than the interflood period before and after (Blöschl et al., 2020).

Before I abandoned it, my AI search also told me that in respect of more recent floods, the situation has been exacerbated by population growth – “Rapid, often clandestine urban expansion into floodplains increased the human toll of these events.” This is borne out by the findings of the 2021 paper:

The number of reported floods increases in parallel with the demographic growth during the 14th century that brought the third major urban expansion and new commercial and artisanal activities …The flood references between the 14th and 18th centuries are concentrated in the riverside areas of new commercial and artisanal expansion to the east of the Stone Bridge…The urban development that took place from the 19th century onwards is also reflected in the increase and spatial distribution of buildings and infrastructures associated with flood damages…

We also learn that the largest gauged flood of the Douro river in Portugal occurred in 1909. There may have been larger floods before that date, but if so they pre-dated the use of gauges to provide reliable and accurate data.

Another study (“Study of historical flood events on Spanish rivers using documentary data”) also informs us:

Floods are phenomena that have produced severe impacts on society in Spain throughout the centuries. Torrential or persistent rainfalls are the main causes of floods in Spain. Their destructive capacity is increased by geographical factors, especially a complex mountainous relief with marked unevenness.

This study deals with “1422 inundations (589 catastrophic and 833 extraordinary) in 17 river basins”. I make no apologies for including a lengthy passage that sets out the historical and climatological situation in some detail:

The total number of floods recorded in the Atlantic Basin rivers, independently of the type (extraordinary or catastrophic) and the seasonality of the flood, was averaged for each decade in order to obtain a general view on the frequency of floods in this area. Two main peaks can be noticed, corresponding to the decades 1591–1600 and 1781–1790. In the first case, this result is in good agreement with the study of European river floods during the 16th century, such as the River Garonne in France, with a consistent increase in the frequency of floods in Toulouse and Agen from the 13th to the 19th centuries (Brázdil et al., 1999). At the end of the 18th century, winter precipitation anomalies over Spain have been associated with pressure anomalies centred over the Atlantic Ocean northwest of the Iberian Peninsula (Pauling et al.,2006). The period between these two peaks, with an absence of floods in two decades (1661–1670 and 1711–1720) corresponds to the Maunder Minimum period, suggesting an interesting relationship between solar activity and the frequency of floods in the Iberian Peninsula (Vaquero, 2004). According to Pauling et al. (2006), during the first half of the 18th century, the influence of a sea-level pressure pattern, characterized by continental blocking in Europe, reached southern Spain and Morocco, preventing the Atlantic lows causing floods to reach the Iberian Peninsula. Finally, it seems that the frequency of floods shows a decreasing trend during the 19th century. The possible effects of development and occupation of basins and banks must also be taken into account to explain the reduced number and intensity of floods in the 20th century (Brázdil et al., 1999; Trigo et al., 2004).

Of course, none of this proves that early 21^st century catastrophic flooding in Iberia isn’t getting worse or becoming more frequent. However, it does demonstrate that it’s certainly nothing new, and that Spain and Portugal have a long history of catastrophic floods that appear to have occurred in cycles, with extended periods of time when they have been less frequent and serious before problematic floods resumed once more as a result of natural climate change. It’s also inevitably true that a country with a growing population that has rapidly moved from the countryside to urban areas combined with a growing and wealthier population generally is inevitably going to suffer much more on a like for like basis from similar flooding events than was the case in the past. Perhaps, then, while not disputing the seriousness of the flooding catastrophes that have recently befallen Spain, the reality is that they’re nothing new, and there is a distinct possibility that they are no worse than they have been on many occasions in the past.

France

The first of the two Guardian articles cited above claims that “Soils across France have reached unprecedented levels of saturation, with weather forecasters issuing flood alerts that demand “absolute vigilance”.” “Unprecedented” is a dangerously conclusive word to use, and this is an exceptional claim. Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence, but none is offered. It does link to another Guardian article published on 17^th February, but it also provides no evidence for the claim. It does, however, name some specific rivers, such as the Garonne, Maine and Loire. Naming the Garonne opens up a rich history of flooding (see above). We’ll take a look at the specific named rivers in turn in just a moment, but first we can find a general overview from a study titled “River flooding on the French Mediterranean coast and its relation to climate and land use change over the past two millennia”:

Flooding was particularly important between 800 and 1350 CE, i.e. during the warm climatic conditions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Moreover, several periods of increased flooding occurred in the 2nd, 6th-7th, 16th, 18th and 20th centuries…Besides, increased flooding could also have been controlled by forest decline and human activities after 500 CE. Between 1400 and 1800 CE, palaeobotanical data show an intensification of land use characterized by an expansion of grasslands and cultivated areas in the coastal lowlands east of the Hérault River. Forest clearings and the development of agriculture seem to have led to a relative increase in river flooding, especially in the late Middle Ages and early modern period.

Is increased flooding caused by natural climate change, man-made climate change, or changing land use? Or some combination of two or more of those? The authors of the article are very clear that there is great uncertainty regarding this question:

Climate change and land use can impact river flooding in drainage basins from the northwestern Mediterranean, but it is challenging to estimate the relative importance of these two factors on flood frequencies.

Whatever the cause of flooding, the Garonne is certainly no stranger to it, with early records indicating major floods in 1177, 1220, 1258, and 1430. The 16th–18th centuries saw a high incidence of floods, particularly in 1523, 1536, 1589, 1608, 1658, 1673, 1675, 1709, 1712, 1727, 1750, 1772 (when it reached 8.5 metres), and 1788. Several major floods occurred in the 19^th century (1827, 1835, 1855, 1856), with the 1835 flood reaching 5 metres above normal in Toulouse. The 1920s and 1930s also saw severe flooding and in March 1930, the Garonne reached a historic, record-high level of 11.77 metres in the Tarn-et-Garonne area, causing immense devastation in the process. This year’s flood does seem to have exceeded most previous records, with a height of more than 10 metres at Marmande, but 1930 would seem to have witnessed the worst flooding of all.

The Maine is a tributary of the Loire, and the Loire has a long history of serious floods, with attempts to control the river by creating levees along the banks. A useful history of Loire floods can be found here. Possibly the most dramatic known flood (perhaps exaggerated, but still clearly catastrophic) occurred in 1707, when “floods were said to have drowned 50,000 people, with the water rising more than 3m in two hours in Orléans. Later, at the time of Revolutionary change, during the freezing winter of 1788-89, the Loire suddenly melted – sending flood waters over fields and pastures and bursting through dikes into the city streets of Blois and Tours.”

The Guardian article doesn’t mention the Seine, perhaps wisely, given that it too has a very long history of recorded floods of great severity. We know that it flooded as far as back as 583CE, and bridges were destroyed by severe floods in 1280 and 1296. The worst floods of all on the Seine appear to have occurred in 1658, with the flood level being recorded at 8.96 metres. The flooding event of 1910 is known as “the Great Flood”. Following heavy rain, the Seine rose to 8.62 metres, turning Paris streets into canals, submerging 20,000 buildings, and flooding the early metro system. This year’s floods have been bad, but they haven’t reached those levels, and it’s likely that the floods of 1955 (with flood levels of 7.12 metres) and 1982 were also worse.

United Kingdom

The Guardian article tries to bring the UK into the story, noting that “parts of the UK have broken records for the number of days without a break in the rain.” Well, they may have broken modern records, but it is almost certainly far from being the first time the UK has experienced lengthy periods of continuous rain. Compared to 1314-1316 this winter’s rain, while relentless and damaging, has been relatively modest:

It rained almost constantly throughout the summer and autumn of 1314 and then through most of 1315 and 1316. Crops rotted in the ground, harvests failed and livestock drowned or starved. Food stocks depleted and the price of food soared. The result was the Great Famine, which over the next few years is thought to have claimed over 5% of the British population. It was the same or even worse in mainland Europe.

Memorable floods are also depressingly common, as a website devoted to the Severn River alone amply demonstrates :

The first definite record of a great flood is that of October 1484, when the ill-fated campaign of the Duke of Buckingham against Richard lll, was brought to a halt by the great Severn flood which barred his way across England, and was passed into folk-memory as ‘the Duke of Buckingham’s water’.

Noake records seeing on a fly-leaf of a tract, reference to a flood in 1620 as follows: ‘November ye 29, 1620. In the River Severn was the greatest flood that ever was seen since the flood of Noah, there was drowned at Homstone’s Loade, 68 persons as they whare going to Bewdley Faire’.

Two great floods occurred in 1672 and 1770. A plate on the wall at the Water Gate records: ‘On the 18th November, 1770, the flood rose to the lower edge of the plate, being ten inches higher than the flood which occurred on December 23, 1672’.

Two storms caused great floods, the Severn rising at phenomenal speed: the famous Worcester hailstorm of 1811, and the storm of August 1847, when the water at Diglis Lock rose 181/2ft in five hours. It stopped the river current and the water backed up like a tide, and forced the Camp Locks to open themselves. This has not happened since.

The greatest flood of all however, is considered to have occurred in 1886, in the month of May. On that occasion the water almost reached the crown of the arches of Worcester Bridge. In the parish of St.Clement’s alone, it was estimated that no fewer than 250 houses were flooded. A punt laden with men, women and children was returning from the bridge towards Tybridge Street, when some of the passengers lurched suddenly to one side, and several were upset, though fortunately no one was drowned. During the flood, a man caught a pike in the sitting room of the Old Rectifying House.

Two more recent floods, but equally disastrous were those of 1924 and 1947. The flood of June 1924 destroyed the Three Counties Show on Pitchcroft, and prize cattle and exhibits had to be rescued from one of the fastest rising floods known. The other flood of 1947 is still remembered, when all passenger communication by road to St.John’s was cut, and a free rail service ran from Foregate Street Station to Henwick. During the 1947 flood 20 buckets of lamperns were picked up at the Electricity Power Station in Hylton Road, and sold for 6s .9d per gross, or two a-penny.

Drought

You won’t be surprised to learn, by now, that severe drought is nothing new, either. There are numerous examples of appalling droughts throughout the history of Europe since mediaeval times, too many to mention towards the end of an already lengthy article. One example will suffice to make the point that hot, dry summers, even of exceptional intensity, are nothing new. The Great Tudor Drought of 1540-1 was terrible in its intensity:

From February 1540 rainfall pretty much ceased; March was exceptionally warm, and April and May were hot and dry. The spring saw wells, aquifers, streams and rivers all start to dry out – between February and September, rain fell only six times in London.
Freshwater from the Thames shrank to such an unprecedented extent that seawater flowed on the tide past London Bridge, polluting the water supply. The resulting dysentery and cholera killed thousands.

On the continent, Switzerland and France saw grapes wither by July; harvests were lost, fruit died and rotted on trees that shed their leaves, and rivers and streams vanished. One Alsace farmer reported it was possible “for a man dangle his legs in the great fissures” that formed on empty riverbeds.

In Rome, not a drop of rain fell for nine months; the Rhine dried up in places, and the Seine in Paris ran dry. Unlike many of England’s drought summers, rain did not return to save the day in autumn 1540. Weak winter rains failed to replenish Europe’s thirsting water supplies, and the crisis deepened.

Winter remained unusually warm; in Bavaria in November people were still swimming in mountain lakes to keep cool. A second hot dry spring evolved into a second blistering summer in 1541. It was so hot in Britain that some forests began to die from drought.

Despair grew to desperation; parts of Europe suffered virtual desertification by July 1541. The River Trent, described in spring as a ‘runnel’, or brook, soon ran totally dry. Disease and hunger cast a great shadow over Britain, like that of a plague. Parishes across the country prayed for rains that did not come.

Livestock now died in huge numbers, with even the deepest wells now dry for months, and hay and feed impossible to find. Only in October 1541 did the weather finally relent. The following year the pendulum swung completely the other way, and 1542 was a year of widespread flooding across Britain.

I suppose if that happened today they would call it climate whiplash and blame it on man-made climate change.

Conclusion

The Guardian wants us to believe that “[t]his is Europe’s new [my emphasis] reality:under water in winter, withered in summer. Yet even as the weather extremes worsen, the voices of denial have grown louder and more influential.”

The only voices of denial I hear are those who would deny the past.