That energy transition had better happen pretty darn soon…

Posted on by thomaswfuller2In Uncategorized1 Minute Read

In 2013 the Energy Information Administration (part of the US Dept. of Energy) projected that the world would consume 810 quadrillion BTUs (Quads) in 2040.

I disagreed. My rough calculations led me to the conclusion that the figure would be about 965 Quads in 2040.

As of this year, the EIA has changed its projection to 940 BTUs.

I’m really glad to be correct. I’m really worried about the fuel portfolio we will be using to deliver those Quads.

C’mon, solar! C’mon, nuclear!

6 Comments

  1. The energy transition will be back to fossil fuels & nuclear, once net zero renewables have caused a few blackouts

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Correct Mark, to be fair, anywhere above the 45th parallel is useless for solar PV

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  4. Solar is terrible for the grid. California has finally reached the point where they can fill the afternoon supply with solar PV. Mark Jacobson is having epiphanies, but the battery share looks like dirt spots on the screen and that huge white expanse under the red demand line has to be imported from other states.

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  5. Oops, looks like those graphs don’t include gas, which undoubtedly fills most of that white blotch. In fact since those are percent graphs, gas, imports and nuclear fill all the above white space.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Also looks like California has had a massive battery expansion binge so those dirt specs have expanded into dust bunnies.

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