Insectageddon – More or Less

Posted on by Alex CullIn Uncategorized2 Minutes Read

The BBC radio programme More or Less often provides, in my view, a reasonably thoughtful counterpoint or qualifier to some of the BBC’s more uncritical and alarming science coverage.

At the end of last month, one topic was the much-vaunted “Insect Armageddon” and the scary claim that insects are facing global extinction in 100 years’ time. I found it an interesting listen, and have also transcribed it here.

During the segment, the presenters examine the claims made in the paper that started it all (“Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers”, by Francisco Sánchez-Bayo and Kris Wyckhuys), with the help of several biologists and a statistician.

The sort of thing that emerges will be all too familiar to many readers…

Firstly, a method that actively goes out and looks for data that supports the study’s claim, while potentially excluding data that does not.

Casper Albers (statistician): So what they did is they only looked for papers that had the keyword “decline” in the title or abstract. It could be that there are also papers that actually found an increase, but if you look for this keyword you won’t find those papers. So they kind of introduced a bias in the way they looked for the papers.

Then the claim that the study is “global” but which excludes two thirds of the global landmass.

Jane Hill (biologist): Yeah, well, I think that is an inappropriate thing to do, and if you look at where they got their studies from, they can’t really extrapolate globally because most of the studies are from Europe. And so the concern, I think, that I have with the paper is about extrapolating widely beyond the studies they examined.

And there’s the big one, the claim that insects are facing a catastrophic global decline and potentially facing extinction, based on some biomass studies – in just three locations.

It’s beginning to look a bit like climate science…

But the lead author brushes the statistical argument aside:

Francisco Sánchez-Bayo: Even if we don’t have enough data to prove it statistically, whatever, we know that this is happening. So it’s better to do it now than ten years later when we may have more serious problems.

So, a flawed study based on limited, cherry-picked data and heroic extrapolation, which morphs into lurid headlines in the world’s media and then crystallises into a statement of fact in the minds of tearful climate activists and schoolchildren.

I find the final quote by lead author Francisco Sánchez-Bayo remarkable.

If “we know that this is happening”, then for goodness sakes, show it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 Comments

  2. Send complaints directly to BBC Chief Executive Officer. (director general?)

    works in private industry

    Why piss around with the complaints process?

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  5. From link above

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  8. “Even if we don’t have enough data to prove it statistically, whatever, we know that this is happening. So it’s better to do it now than ten years later when we may have more serious problems.”

    Wow. The entire theocracy of post normal science encapsulated in one pithy sentence.

    You’re right Alex. It looks a lot like climate science. ‘Look, we don’t have enough data to prove that the weather is getting worse globally because of climate change, but we know it’s happening, right, so shut up deniers. It’s better to start to decarbonise the entire economy right now rather than wait 10 years’.

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  9. Pingback: Insectageddon – More or Less – Has everyone lost their mind?

  10. Recent talks about shifting towards an insect protein diet in the green future that awaits us all would seem to face a fatal flaw if Insectageddon also awaits us

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Anyone else notice that there is a definite lack of flying insects so far this year? Not even the usual nasties are out and about. I’m seeing flowers aplenty but very few insects buzzing around them. I suspect the appalling spring and summer weather we’ve had here in the UK is probably to blame, but there are people on X in Europe also noting the dearth of winged insects. Having said that, the weather across Europe has been pretty bad too. Much flooding in central Europe. Temperatures below average a lot of the time. The US seems to be unaffected. Strange.

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  13. Jaime, yes and no.

    Overall, I would definitely agree with your comment. However, I was plagued by horse flies on one of the few rare hot days we had earlier this month, while out on some modest sized hills above Kirkby Stephen.

    They’re not flying insects, but ticks seem to be in larger numbers than usual this year. Maybe they thrive in cool, damp conditions?

    Liked by 1 person

  14. There are very low numbers of bumblebees in Norwich. Speculating, but it may be that most of the colonies did not establish. It was not great weather during the period when only lone queens were working.

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  15. Jit, I’ve seen a handful of bumblebees this year. In 2022, they were nesting in our roof. Sadly, they have not returned since.

    Mark, ticks are definitely a growing problem. They are a nightmare on the dogs and I don’t like using tick treatments because they both go in rivers and lakes a lot and the insecticides kill wildlife.

    Yes, there was definitely a sharp uptick in annoying flies when the weather briefly warmed up, which suggests that it is the weather which is mainly responsible for the low numbers.

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  16. Regarding ticks, the other day we were walking up Maiden Moor from the Newlands valley, and I came across a Herdwick lamb which was struggling to get to its feet. I mentioned it to the farmer when we returned to the valley, and he said he feared it was the result of tick bites. They are looking like a serious problem this year. The fact that they seem to be thriving during a cold, wet spring and summer is probably one of the many downsides to the era of global boiling. Oh, hang on a minute….

    Liked by 1 person

  17. It’s the same story here in leafy Surrey: very few bumblebees (mostly Tree BBs); some Mason Bees but, so far, no Leafcutters; a sprinkling of damselflies but only one or two dragonflies; some brown butterflies but very few Red Admirals, Peacocks, etc.

    Hopefully July will be more clement and things will improve.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Forget tics and flying horrors, it’s head lice you need to be afraid of:

    “As climate change continues to bring warmer winters, parents can expect a rise in head lice cases and should be aware of their options before the infestation hits home.”

    https://www.prweb.com/releases/as_climate_change_leads_to_higher_numbers_of_head_lice_infestations_lice_troopers_responds_with_all_natural_approach/prweb13466762.htm

    Which brings me on to this:

    “Return of the nit: We’ve got the lousy weather to thank, and many of the treatments don’t work”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/return-of-the-nit-we-ve-got-the-lousy-weather-to-thank-and-many-of-the-treatments-don-t-work-8555223.html

    So which is it? Is it climate change causing lice to prosper in higher temperatures, or is it lousy summers causing kids to spend more time together indoors rubbing heads? Well, all I will say is that head lice infections are first and foremost a socially transmitted disease. So warmer winters should result in fewer and not more infections.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. I’m really happy right now, despite the election bad news. Because I planted some wildflowers in a box at the front and in the back garden and, despite the horrible weather, they are now beginning to attract pollinating bees!

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  23. Last year was a terrible year for wasps (or quite a good one if you take their perspective). So the one thing I was looking forward to this year was something of a respite. This is because wasp numbers are notorious for following a two-year cycle. So this year’s low numbers were fully to be expected. It is all explained here:

    https://bpca.org.uk/news-and-blog/biological-and-environmental-factors-affecting-wasp-numbers

    But the good old BBC has a story that needs telling. So they go with this:

    “Colder and wetter weather and climate change have had a global impact on the invertebrates.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c134621devzo

    Lots of talk of alarmingly low numbers this year and an on-going worrying decline, and how increased wet weather is to blame. Nothing said about how this year’s shortfall was entirely to be expected as part of the cycle. Not until one scrolls to the very bottom of the article when this half-hearted afterthought is added:

    “Thomas Ings, an associate professor in zoology specialising in entomology at the Anglia Ruskin University in Cambridge, has a long-standing interest in wasps. He said the population tended to fluctuate from year to year.”

    Even so, he isn’t given the last word, which is:

    “There has been a decline in insect numbers around the globe, and in the UK there is evidence of severe declines in some flying insects.”

    Oh climate change, you have so much to answer for, particularly an alarming fall in the number of good journalists.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. “Colder and wetter weather and climate change…”

    Climate change must be blamed for everything, even when the weather isn’t what we were told to expect from climate change.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Yes, Mark, more wasps or fewer wasps – it’s all due to climate change. This is what the Guardian was saying seven years ago:

    Why climate change is good news for wasps

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/06/climate-change-good-news-wasps-weatherwatch

    Incidentally, I was wrong to suggest earlier that Mr Ings didn’t get the last word – I just hadn’t scrolled down far enough to read:

    But with wasps it is difficult to say if there is a long-term decline, said Mr Ings.

    What exactly is it that the journalists want us to believe? Is it increasing numbers or are they declining? I suppose the fact that the population goes up and down each successive year means that the journalists don’t really need to make up their minds. It’s all climate change after all!

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  26. I would like to know the driver of this apparent cycle. Quite often in time series analysis a low year follows a high year, but that does not mean there is anything more than randomness behind it. (Much of my first year as a postgrad was spent unpicking the statistical shenanigans that population biologists got up to when trying to prove “density dependence” in time series of population sizes. Most of the positive results were artefacts.)

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  27. Jit: my first thought was whether this could be driven by plants with the so-called “mast years” which, to my very limited understanding, produce an over-abundance in one year followed by reduced output the next.

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  28. The Guardian’s at it again:

    “UK failing to monitor apparently falling wasp populations, expert warns

    Gardeners and pest controllers say wasps, important predators and pollinators, appear to be in sharp decline”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/07/uk-failing-to-monitor-apparently-falling-wasp-populations-expert-warns

    In fairness, the article is full of caveats and unknowns, but despite this:

    This year, wasps appear to have faced a sharp decline, with the colder and wetter weather believed to have dampened their numbers, as reported by gardeners, experts and pest controllers.

    We still get this:

    Climate breakdown is bringing more extreme weather to the UK and this is predicted by the Met Office to include heavier and more frequent downpours and disrupted seasons. This affects creatures such as wasps, which make their nests in the ground and are therefore sensitive to flooding.

    So now it’s not hot weather due to climate change, but any sort of weather, which can always be attributed to climate change. It’s true that wasps sometimes build nests in the ground, but often they don’t, so the claims about risks from flooding seem massively over-hyped to me, especially given that climate change was supposed to drive dry, not wet, summers.

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  29. Mike: there is a difference, in that the mast years are part of the reproductive strategy of an individual organism. When I get around to finishing it I will post up a blog with a description of social wasp lifecycles.

    Mark: the use of “climate breakdown” is as absurd as usual. And the notion about flooding is almost but not quite as absurd. Did the flooding drown the wasps that nested in hollow trees and attics?

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  30. The Guardian’s still fretting about wasps:

    “The weird world of wasps and why we should worry if they are on the wane”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/10/the-weird-world-of-wasps-and-why-we-should-worry-if-they-are-on-the-wane

    Not that it’s anything to do with climate change:

    ...However, she is unsurprised by this year’s low numbers: “The science tells us that cold, wet springs mean that foundresses – the big queen wasps that start appearing in spring – struggle to successfully grow a nest. This is because they are solitary at this time in the colony cycle and so need to do all the nest building, egg laying, prey hunting all by themselves. Rain and cold make this difficult; and of course their prey will have been affected by the poor weather too, compounding the challenge. So with fewer successfully founded nests in spring there will be fewer mature nests now. And predictably, fewer wasps bothering people.

    “This is bad news. Wasps perform many important roles in the environment, as natural pest controllers, as pollinators and also in the case of the yellowjacket they are important decomposers – that’s why they happily scavenge the carrion at your BBQ,” said Sumner.

    In the long term, wasp numbers were thought to be declining overall because of human activity, she said. “They will be affected in the same way as other insects by chemicals like pesticides – after all, these chemicals are designed to screw up insect physiology and neurology.”…

    Liked by 1 person

  31. “‘This year has been dead’: where have Britain’s insects gone?

    Surveys suggest that wet weather and habitat deterioration are among the causes of devastating population declines, but there are ways to help”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/15/britain-insects-surveys-butterflies-climate-aoe

    The short-term culprit is bad weather. March and April, which are crucial months for insects were cool, wet and cloudy. It was the UK’s wettest spring since 1986. Butterflies, for example, need some warm and dry weather to be able to fly around and mate.

    “Overall, the weather conditions in the spring have made it much more difficult than normal for insects to fly, forage, nest and just generally go about their daily lives,” says Dr Richard Comont, who leads the national bumblebee monitoring scheme, BeeWalk. “The summer has been slightly better, but not by much – still unseasonably cool for most of June and July.”

    So weather of the type that we were told wouldn’t happen due to climate change is the problem, but climate change is the problem…:

    Insects are very weather-sensitive, so there is always a lot of variation from one year to the next. They are used to bad weather, and generally bounce back when things get better, but a lot of bad years can results in long-term downward trends.

    Many populations have probably not yet recovered from the heat and drought of 2022 when temperatures in the UK passed 40C for the first time. “This isn’t happening in isolation,” says Comont. “[This year] was the fourth poor spring in a row, so spring-flying species are getting gradually ground down … There have always been poor-weather years, but this one is coming at weakened insect populations already reeling from a series of other extreme weather events – it’s really punching them when they’re down.”

    The climate crisis is changing the natural rhythm of the seasons, which insects are finely tuned to, and makes extreme events – such as “never-ending” rain – more likely. While one bad year is not an indication that things have changed long term, unusual weather conditions are increasing in frequency.

    “As well as the weather just generally getting warmer, the extreme weather events are becoming more common,” says Matt Hayes, an ecologist at the University of Cambridge. “If that happens then a given population of butterflies might do well one year and then suddenly completely the wrong conditions happen the next. So the fluctuation seems to be becoming more common.”

    Extreme events appear to have more impact than the gradual temperature increase. “Years getting a little warmer on average … is less likely to be a problem for most butterflies than the much more unpredictable storms, heatwaves, droughts etc,” says Fox….

    I would suggest this is the big issue:

    …Historically the main driver has been habitat loss due to the expansion and industrialisation of agriculture. The loss of flower-rich grasslands, heathland and peat bogs have driven a substantial decline in species that depend on those habitats.

    The rate of habitat destruction in the UK has slowed because many of these precious habitats are now protected. However, the quality of these habitats is being negatively affected by pollution from pesticides, nitrogen and even light….

    Of course, the Guardian has to tag this on the end:

    The climate crisis is also becoming an increasingly significant factor.

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