Climate Scientists Harassing Women (asexually, of course)–Again–Matt Lauer, Meet Michael Mann
Consensus climate scientists have long been personal and damning in their criticism of those who don’t agree with them. They’ve threatened physical violence (Ben Santer: “Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.”). They of course use the epithet ‘denier’ specifically to associate opponents with those who deny the Holocaust occurred.
But when they talk about male scientists they are somewhat restrained. Here’s Michael Mann on Richard Lindzen, former Alfred P. Sloan professor at MIT, and one of the most famous skeptics: “So Richard Lindzen is a scientist from MIT who has expressed contrarian views about climate change.” When astrophysicist Ken Rice, a consensus defender writes of Roger Pielke Jr., who disputes some elements of the consenssus, he writes “Okay, I do think that trying to improve the climate debate is commendable, so kudos to Roger for at least trying. ”
But when Mann speaks of Judith Curry, another climate scientist who disagrees with some consensus positions, he says ‘she is a carnival barker in the circus of climate denial.’ This is somewhat odd, as Judith Curry has 224 scientific publications credited to her–Mann is calling her a denier of a science she is helping create. She is also dismissively referred to on blogs published by climate scientists as ‘Aunt Judy’ and much worse.
The same is true for scientists like Sally Baliunas, Jennifer Marohasy, even consensus female scientists like Tamsin Edwards (called a ‘careerist’ by Josh Halpern for not being critical enough of lukewarmers). While male scientists definitely get their share of criticism–even abuse–with females, the invective seems more personal.
Now it is the turn of Dr. Susan Crockford, who has been a zoologist for 35 years. Despite that, despite her PhD from the University of Victoria in Canada, despite over 30 scientific publications, she is now classed as a ‘denier.’
A paper published Nov. 29 in the American Institute of Biological Sciences journal ‘Bioscience’ bears the title ‘Internet Blogs, Polar Bears and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy’ calls Susan Crockford a denier. Their evidence is that other unidentified blogs that the paper’s authors call ‘denier’ blogs (without citing them, without showing what it is about those blogs that render them anathema) link to Dr. Crockford’s weblog.
Let’s be clear about this. Dr. Crockford does not deny climate change. She writes about polar bears and clears up some misconceptions being published about them. But because weblogs this paper’s authors don’t like link to Crockford, she is now labeled a ‘denialist.’ But again, the casual dismissal of her life’s work is more personal than professional. She is derided as someone who focused on dogs,with an inferred snigger.
This is actually a common Consensus tactic–when they cannot criticize the science, they go after the scientist. Or even the scientists’s fans… The truth about polar bears is that they have survived warmer periods than those predicted for us by the IPCC. Their numbers are increasing, not decreasing. And the biggest threat to polar bears are hunters–as many as 1,000 per year (out of a total population of about 30,000) are shot.
The paper flat out lies about Crockford’s publication record, saying “Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on polar bears.” Crockford’s publications are listed here and include papers published in Oxford, British Archaeological Reports, Canadian Journal of Zoology and International Journal of Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, among many others.
It is another attempt to delegitimize a respected and credentialed scientist, based not on what she writes, but on what others write about her.
The Consensus team is not shy about labeling, defaming and insulting those in opposition. But here we see once again that it is easier for them to do this with female opponents.
The paper’s authors are Jeffrey A. Harvey, Daphne van den Berg, Jacintha Ellers, Remko Kampen, Thomas W. Crowther, Peter Roessingh, Bart Verheggen, Rascha J. M. Nuijten, Eric Post, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ian Stirling, Meena Balgopal, Steven C. Amstrup, Michael E. Mann.
Michael Mann is famous–or infamous–as author of the Hockey Stick chart. But Jeffrey Harvey is not. Harvey is willing to defend Paul Ehrlich, who to my knowledge has never been right about anything, but is willing to throw fellow scientist Susan Crockford under the bus. Here’s Harvey defending Paul Ehrlich:
“Effectively, these scientists – experts with many hundreds of peer-reviewed articles amongst them and with many awards (e.g. Paul Ehrlich has been a past winner of the Crafoord Prize, an equivalent to the Nobel Prize in fields outside of that award) – have drawn conclusions that an ‘expert’ like Fuller disagrees with.”
Stefan Lewandowsky, famed for having retracted his flagship paper and moving out of the country to live down the shame of it, deserves little mention.
The central point emerging from their paper is unintentional on their part. Their opponents are eager to cite scientists in their arguments. Rather than denying science, they are eager consumers of it.
The central point of this post–that climate scientists are dismissive, personal and insulting, and more so when the subject of their disdain are female, is clear just from their quoted remarks.
On Judith Curry:
Bart Verheggen: “Her unfounded allegations are insulting for the whole profession. It increases the polarisation and doesn’t add to the building of bridges (perhaps a one-way bridge).”
Michael Tobis: “Anyone who thinks all is roses in the garden of science has to account for the rise of Dr Curry to a position of responsibility in academia. (Here I am on the sidelines and there sits Judith Curry on top of the heap.”
Michael Mann: “Pathetic #RichardHarris @NPR puffpiece glorifies #JudyCurry for purveying #climatechange distraction & confusion ”
Dana Nuccitelli: “@MichaelEMann I just depuffed the @NPR Judith Curry glorification http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/aug/23/climate-change-greatest-risk-management-failure …”
Michael Tobis: “So has she lost touch, or has she never had much scientific insight to begin with? That’s the only question any of this burbling raises. … On the other hand, to be honest no paper of hers has ever come across my radar in anything I’ve investigated.”
“It’s as if she had heard of science but never seen it done.”
On Susan Crockford:
Richard Littlemore: “Has beens, also-rans, deniers-for-hire on retainer at “think tank”. The scientists, ranging from …a sessional lecturer on the evolution and history of the domestic dog (Susan Crockford), include no top climate scientists currently publishing in the peer-reviewed literature.”
At the end of the day, members of the Consensus will dismiss this blog post in the same way they dismiss Susan Crockford–not because of the accuracy of the quotes listed here, not because of the truth or falsity of its central point, but because of provenance. It is posted on a blog called Climate Scepticism and hence is beyond the Pale.
The paper I am criticizing reminds me of several other junk science publications–‘Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature’ (Cook, Nuccitelli et al), ‘Expert Credibility in Climate Change,’Anderegg, Prall et al and literally anything written by the biggest charlatan in climate science, Stefan Lewandowsky (one of the authors of this paper as well). The purpose of these papers is not to communicate.
It is to excommunicate.
Climate Scepticism 
Bart was civil and reasonable at one time.
I wonder what got him to want to join in on a thuggish deceitful gang that maliciously lies about people?
Or perhaps the true cost of being part of the inside crowd of climate opinion makers is the price at which one will sell out their integrity…..
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Tom,
Great essay.
You did remind me why not taking anything Tobis says as reasonable is a good default setting.
Thanks.
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Interesting that several of the authors of the paper are female.
What I can never understand is that several criticisms of DR Susan Crockford are blatantly untrue, yet can easily be checked. Furthermore I have read such untruths before. How did the paper get through peer review?; it should have been rejected as not being original as well as containing factual inaccuracies. Ah, but I forget, peer review is dead: long live pal review.
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It’s almost as if there is particular shame and infamy attached to being female, a scientist, and not whole-heartedly embracing the man-made global warming catastrophe consensus. It’s half expected that some white middle aged males will, of course, because science denial for the benefit of Big Oil is part of that colonialist package, But a woman! OMG, the shame!
I didn’t realise Susan Crockford researched the origins of the domestic dog. I must look up what she has to say.
I ticked off Ken Rice for yet another cheap shot at Judith on Twitter, criticising her blog post about Darwall’s uncertainty essay (nothing to do with Nazis) by bizarrely associating her choice to cover his work with James Delingpole’s Breitbart article about the roots of environmentalism in Nazi Germany, where he referenced Darwall’s latest book.
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My experience may not be typical. My science -geology- may be different from other subjects. When I was an undergraduate (early 60s) there were very few female geology students. I never met one until I was a post-graduate when I met a few female graduates from other universities at research meetings. Much later, in Canada I met and worked with a very few female geologists in an oil company. There are of course many more female geology graduates now and I have taught and done research with more female research students than male ones. Incidentally, my second wife was a geologist and the reason I returned to the UK.
My overall impression of female scientists (mostly geologists) is one of awe. If they survive, they have had to break more barriers than men do, and to get appointed and promoted have to be better than most men. When arguing with women I always feel I have to be on my mettle (hi Jaime). Thus reading this current blog came as a surprise. I do not dispute it, but I do wonder if the male authors of the paper know just what they are taking on. I doubt that Judith Curry or Susan Crockford suffer fools.
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This is a very odd post. I happen to have said something positive about Roger Pielke Jr and that is somehow an indication that climate scientists are more restrained when criticising men than women?
I have just checked Web of Science and cannot find any peer-reviewed papers by Dr Crockford on polar bears. Can you highlight one?
Jaime,
You didn’t tick me off. I just found that whole situation very strange. What I tweeted was true. The only problem that I can see would be if James Delingpole misrepresented Rupert Darwall’s book. However, given that Rupert Darwall seemed to be promoting James Delingpole’s article on Twitter, he didn’t seem to think that he had.
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“I doubt that Judith Curry or Susan Crockford suffer fools.”
Curry seems to be a fool. Remember her “Wow!” on reading Salby’s drivel. Crockford might garner more respect if she got out on the ice and did some original research on Polar Bear populations. How can someone be an expert on such a subject without that?
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In what way does Judith Curry, author of more than 220 works, seem to be a fool in the eyes of the almighty intellect that is Len Martinez? Do please enlighten us, using your exquisite judgement.
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Dana Nuccitelli does his best to depuff and defund Climate Science, writing about something with no Climate Science in it.
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ATTP, are you disputing the quote?
Dr. Crockford’s publication record is linked above. Remind me again of your publications on polar bears? Or for that matter any climate science-related topic?
Funnily enough I don’t see papers published in journals about your deficiencies as a member of the climate commentariat.
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As I said, remember her “Wow” in response to Salby’s drivel. “…just finished listening to Murry Salby’s podcast on Climate Change and Carbon. Wow. […] If Salby’s analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science. […] While all this is frustratingly preliminary without publication, slides, etc., it is sufficiently important that we should start talking about these issues.
– Judith Curry”
See also https://curryquotes.wordpress.com/
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Tom,
No, I’m suggesting that it has no relevance with respect to whether or not climate scientists are more restrained when criticising men than women. I would argue that you have no evidence for this in the first place, but what I said has no relevance whatsoever.
As far as I can see there are no peer-reviewed papers by Susan Crockford on polar bears. If there are, I would appreciate you highlighting them.
I don’t see how my publication record has any bearing on someone else’s publication record.
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Crockford lists a few comments she made on other people’s papers on her About page. That probably counts as a paper in its own right in Tom’s starstruck eyes.
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Len A highly refined and damning judgement based upon a single three-letter word (I’m tempted to repeat it but cannot face your rightful scorn) This word must have been so full of import to influence you so strongly. Journal editors must long for more like you – able to make refined assessments upon so little. Peer assessments would be SO easy.
I almost overlooked your “drivel” assessment of atmospheric physicist Salby’s essay. Do please share the detailed reasoning behind your refined judgement.
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‘Starstruck?’ No. Impressed? Yes. Unlike my reaction to your output, Mr. Martinez. Do you really think the audience here is unfamiliar with trolls?
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Journal editors? You’ll struggle in vain to find Salby’s CO2 fantasies in any reputable (or maybe even non-returnable) journals. He specialises in giving lectures to old folks who don’t know enough to dispute his ideas but desperately want to believe – much like those here.
Impressed Tom? By someone who seems to have no record of research or of peer reviewed publication on the subject she claims expert status. You are perhaps too easily impressionable. Or did you find a body of such work as ATTP asked if you?
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I’m impressed by the evidence she produces. ATTP has no record at all of publishing in related fields. None whatsoever. And yet you seem to worship at his feet. Are you conscious?
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The story is now at GWPF: “14 climate bullies…”
https://t.co/VcljMgAsXl
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Tom,
Can you define what you mean by related fields?
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ATTP writes, “I don’t see how my publication record has any bearing on someone else’s publication record.” If you have no relevant expertise in Crockford’s field how are you fit to critcize her? Have you read one of her papers? Have you read any of her blog posts?
She’s a woman. Perhaps worse, she’s Canadian–Canadian’s are generally in favor of the Konsensus, so she’s a traitress. But worst of all, she uses facts from the field to undermine your doom-laden rants.
Which is why the hit-job was published. Why do I say hit job? Because there’s no SI. Because there’s no listing of which blogs were evaluated. Because there’s no comparison between other candidate blogs. Do you really think more skeptic blogs link to Crockford than Curry?
Puerile middle school Mean Girls crap. And you’re out there on the stump, waving the flag of willful ignorance.
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Crockford lists 30 papers on her About page. Yet more proof of Len’s inability to assess or even recognise evidence. No wonder he is such a fanboy for the AGW zealots
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Tom,
I’m not criticising Dr Crockford. I’m asking you to back this up
I can’t find any peer-reviewed papers on polar bears on which Dr Crockford is an author. A peer-reviewed paper is normally the manner in which one presents original research. I’m asking that you highlight – if it exists – a peer-reviewed paper on polar bears on which Dr Crockford is an author.
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Peer review produced the junk science this post is discussing. Make a case for peer review, ATTP.
Peer review produced Anderegg, Prall et al. Peer review produce Cook, Nuccitelli et al. Peer review produced your idiotic paper defending pub searches as proof of consensus.
Funnily enough most of the foundational science in your field preceded the era of peer review.
She has published comments in peer reviewed journals on polar bears. She has written copiously on the subject. You fools have no facts to refute her evidence. Hence the hit job. Funny how much hit job sounds like hijab, which I guess all female scientists should wear.
Do you think they should be allowed to drive?
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Tom,
Do I take it that you can’t find a peer-reviewed paper on polar bears on which Dr Crockford is an author?
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I take it that I cannot find a peer reviewed paper by Ken Rice on social psychology, SNP, polar bears or literary criticism. Again, as in the past, you mistake publication in peer-reviewed journals for expertise or a minimum qualification for consideration. Which led of course to my comment that Michael Mann has more publications than Einstein, Feynman and Newton combined. All hail Michael Mann?
Full papers? No. Comments considered appropriate for publication in journals such as Science and Current Biology? Yes.
**Crockford, S.J. 2012. Directionality in polar bear hybridization. Comment (May 1) to Hailer et al. 2012. “Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage.” Science 336:344-347. Follow link and click on “# comments” under the title http://comments.sciencemag.org/content/10.1126/science.1216424
**Crockford, S.J. 2012. Directionality in polar bear hybridization. Comment, with references (May 1) to Edwards et al. 2011. “Ancient hybridization and an Irish origin for the modern polar bear matriline.” Current Biology 21:1251-1258. to view comments, go through the host website, http://www.Cell.com and find the paper at the Current Biology website. http://www.cell.com/current-biology/abstract/S0960-9822%2811%2900645-2#Comments
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Tom,
Not at all, I’m simply asking you to back up your claim that the paper flat out lies.
I do not think people regard such comments as having appeared in the journal itself, and they’re certainly not peer-reviewed. Also, I cannot find the latter one which explicitly says Comments will not be peer-reviewed.
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Len wrote. “Crockford lists a few comments she made on other people’s papers.” Are we to assume that you have assiduously examined each and every multiauthored paper, that includes the name Crockford, and using sophisticated textural analysis have identified each minute contribution of the charlatan polar bear “expert”, and found it wanting? Praise be for experts such as you because without your vigilance and dedication we would be so mislead by these fraudsters.
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The whole issue of whether Crockford has any “peer reviewed” articles about polar bears is just a silly rhetorical point deployed to discredit her work. As Tom points out peer review is overrated as a sine qua non of quality. I’ve seen lots of exceptional papers rejected because they said something critical or negative and lots of low quality work accepted because it was fashionable at the time. The quality of the scientific literature is a growing issue as journals proliferate and the science “profession” grows. The Harvey paper is clearly an example of “junk” science.
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ATTP, here’s why I don’t care what you think. You (and the paper we are discussing) are seeking to deligitimize a PhD zoologist who has worked hard and carefully to present evidence on the health of polar bear populations that advances our knowledge of both polar bears and nature.
You are using peer review as a bar to entry because you are too f**king lazy to evaluate her work in context with other studies of polar bears.
When Michael Mann and his minions boycott journals, get editors fired and seek to ‘redefine what peer review is’ don’t wave peer review at me or Crockford.
The paper flat out lies about Crockford, ignoring her PhD and comments on polar bears in peer reviewed literature. But what’s worse is that neither her PhD or her peer review record are relevant at all. It is the evidence she produces that, as with so many of the Konsensus tired fabrications, the story of the polar bear is vastly different to what the world is fed by you loons on a daily basis.
Because you cannot refute her evidence, you attack her. The same way you attack Curry. The same way you attack Baliunas. The same way you attack Marohasy.
‘Tis pity she’s a whore…’
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Tom,
Just to be clear, you regard this as a comment[s] on polar bears in peer reviewed literature? As I already said, I can’t find the other one.
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So what?
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Tom,
Does that mean that you do? To save time, few people would regard a comment written into a box on a website as a comment in a peer reviewed journal. This isn’t a criticism of those who write such comments, just a clarification.
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In her latest blog, she catches scientist Steven Amstrup lying about her.
She also quotes Tom’s clever bit about excommunication.
http://polarbearscience.com/2017/12/02/bioscience-article-is-academic-rape-an-assertion-of-power-and-intimidation/
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Alan, if she’d written something substantive she would have linked to it in her About page; hell she’s even had the cheek to link to a website comment as if it is a published comment. Talk about desperate.
Tom, you say she produced evidence, but she’s not known to have researched polar bears on the ice or land or by plane, satellite, whatever. What sort of evidence would be needed to contradict those who really do research on the same subject? It would need to be pretty compelling.
Barrel, she lists various blog posts and book and some papers but no papers are about bears. Kisses.
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Mr. Martinez, grown-ups are trying to talk here. Please go back to the children’s table.
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Bart Verheggen used to be a scientist. What happened?
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A nice polar bear joke, badly delivered:
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Ah, and I have entered the world of moderation at Bart Verheggen’s blog. Here’s what I wrote:
Crockford has had extensive comments on polar bears published in high impact journals. Given what the Konsensus has done for the reputation of peer review that should be sufficient.
And it should have been noted.
This paper really is a hit job–I’m not being metaphorical. Crockford was in an argument with one of the paper’s authors, Steven Armstrup. She wiped the floor with him and this paper is obviously the cheap and underhanded retaliation we have come to expect from the Crusher Crew.
Other ways we know it’s a hit job: Release of the letter without the Si, something Bart Verheggen could do in a second on this blog. Equating the paper’s opponents with thugs claiming the Holocaust never occurred (and then amazingly calling for civility in the discussion that follows…) A complete lack of reference to the large body of published work on Social Network Analysis–the subject of the paper was obviously not nearly as important as going after Crockford.
And again, why Crockford? Why not Curry? She’s also a woman. Why not Donna LaFramboise? She’s also a woman. Why not Jennifer Marohasy? She’s a woman too.
This is an attempt to smear Crockford by someone she destroyed in another internet venue. I’m not surprised Lewandowsky signed up for it–he’s game for all sorts of idiotic nonsense.
But Bart? I am genuinely saddened to see your name on this.
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Fuller’s implied, and even direct, support for the guestionable work products of Maurice Salby, J. Curry, Sally Baliunas, Dr Crockford (while ignoring requests for citations of her peer reviewed publications), and J. Marohasy while citing anecdotes as justification for labeling peer reviewed publishing scientists such as Verheggen and Mann as sexist , should leave little doubt about his bias.
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Yeah, those quotes sure are…anecdotes. And bank robbers rob banks less than 1% of the time!
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“Curry seems to be a fool.”
Whereas you Martinez are a total cretin, and a thoroughly pig ignorant, obnoxious one to boot.
And those are your more endearing features.
But you know that, don’t you?
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At his blog, Bart claims there is a SI file with details of all the blogs, that ‘unfortunately’ hasn’t been published yet.
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Do the experts on Polar Bears agree that Polar Bear numbers are decreasing or increasing? If Doctor Susan Crockford is correct, tax payers do not need to fund so many Polar Bear Experts, and some of the animal welfare charities can concentrate their fund raising and funds elsewhere.
If the world finds itself with too many Polar Bear Experts, then they can commend themselves for their success.
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Paul, Bart’s an author of the paper. He’s got it. What’s stopping him from putting it on his blog?
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I’m late to this but Curry’s summary three days ago seems fair.
Tom’s points about the special abuse of women scientists who won’t toe the warmist line – and Jaime’s reflections on such – and very called for.
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“I feel very lucky to have a career working on a species that really gets people’s attention and has really captured the human imagination,” Amstrup says.
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Making-a-difference/2012/1019/Steven-Amstrup-says-it-s-not-too-late-to-save-polar-bears-and-ourselves
Amstrup has helped Polar Bears capture human imagination.
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J. Curry: “This is absolutely the stupidest paper I have ever seen published”.
Curry would be more convincing if she offered substance. Would be good practice.
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Tom, you really have lost your marbles.
“Crockford has had extensive comments on polar bears published in high impact journals. “
No she doesn’t. She posted a comment on the Science website. That’s like you posting a comment on Bart’s blog; worthless as a sign of expertise. The comment was ignored as far as getting any reply from the mag or the authors of the paper. The fact that she even mentions that little embarrassment in her list of “publications” should tell you how weak her claim to expertise is. And she has no published work on polar bears. You and your fellow delusionals here should get out more.
Weasely one, I love you too.
Paul, whats the deal with the SI file? Do you just want to see whether Cliscep is there? Or do you think it is not possible to differentiate science blogs from non-science blogs like Cliscep?
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Len, Tom’s already written:
with links provided in his original. You now seem to be implying that Crockford has only ever “posted a comment on the Science website”. Let’s get this free-floating marble correct before judging whose final one it is.
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I wonder what it was about:
that Mann, Lewandowsky and their cohorts on this far from scholarly hit-piece failed to understand – not to mention the obvious limitations of their diversionary but ignorant cheerleaders such as Rice and Martinez.
**Source: On being a polar bear expert, among other things
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Mr. Beeton, I believe Judith Curry’s comment was as substantial as the subject deserved.
Mr. Martinez, if you keep interrupting adult conversations I will have to send you to bed early.
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I will note in passing that scrutiny of subject matter expertise seems to be limited to those critiquing the consensus. I don’t see people commenting on James Hansen’s lack of education in the climate sciences. (Nor should they). But Freeman Dyson? (Second smartest man on the planet). He’s not qualified to talk about climate science! (He only worked in climate science for 15 years.) He… didn’t… publish… in…. peer…reviewed… litrachur!!! (Who qualifies as a peer to the second smartest person on the planet? Stephen Hawkins is too busy doing cameos on The Big Bang Theory…)
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Tom: Interesting you mention James Hansen. His endorsement of Mike Shellenberger for governor of California – and who has the consensusite credentials for such a solemn thing? – had already got me thinking. I was going to put this under ‘Enlightenment and empathy” in my next main post. Freeman Dyson of course never bothered to get a PhD – he was too busy making himself useful to the likes of Richard Feynman. And even Dyson got some things horribly wrong, as he tells nicely against himself:
That beats Matt Ridley being chairman of Northern Rock by some margin! But I may well digress.
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I will note that Jeff Harvey’s Wikipedia page has the warning “The topic of this article may not meet Wikipedia’s notability guideline for biographies”. Given my interactions with Jeff on climate weblogs, I can only second Wikipedia’s caution.
Jeff is a scientist specializing in multitrophic interactions (the interplay between species). Which is not an obvious qualification for writing on social networks in the blogosphere, unless he considers lukewarmers and skeptics to be of a different species than staunch upholders of the Konsensus.
Although there is a link on Wikipedia to Jeff Harvey’s personal page at the Danish institute where he labors so mightily, that page is blank.
His peer reviewed publications include works on aphids, beetles,wasps, the cabbage moth and the garlic mustard plant. Nothing about dogs, however. Or polar bears for that matter. Nothing about Social Network Analysis, which might have been useful in the junk science paper that is the subject of this post.
One wonders what qualified him to attempt this paper? One doesn’t wonder why it failed.
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Richard Drake, thank you for sharing a really wonderful story.
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Len Martinez says: “Crockford might garner more respect if she got out on the ice and did some original research on Polar Bear populations.”
Unlikely. The point of the article is that the slightest deviation from the Dogma is not tolerated. Naomi Oreskes, who is no scientist at all, gets considerable respect from the Consensus. How is that? MSM: Main Stream Media. Far-left media include The New York Times, NPR from her brother https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Oreskes
“How can someone be an expert on such a subject without that?”
Be sure to ask the same question of the writers for Skeptical Science. Maybe they will tell you.
I am expert on several topics with no Original Research in my name. Perhaps you are an expert in something.
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Richard: “Len, Tom’s already written: The paper flat out lies about Crockford’s publication record,…”
He wrote it but he is wrong. She has no academic publication record about the bears. Look at her list, it is not hard to see. Tom is the one fibbing about a supposed “extensive comments on polar bears published in high impact journals” when the comment to Science was not published at all and certainly not in the journal. It was a simple website comment form submission that you or I could have made.
Hilary, have you actually looked at the thesis? There are only six paragraphs of a 100+ page document (plus refs and appendices) in which the author speculates vaguely about the origin of polar bears. It is not hard to understand that this does not make the paper about bears or vaguely relevant to current pressures due to a changing environment. Mann and co. clearly were capable of such understanding; you and others here, not so much.
Michael: “I am expert on several topics…”
I’ve seen plenty of CVs that claim expert status on an unlikely number of things. Some people’s idea of being expert is what others might consider just well read.
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Len, I’m happy to leave the rest to Tom, except to say “vaguely relevant to current pressures due to a changing environment” sound typically weaselly words. The issue I’ve seen Crockford write about for a number of years is polar bear populations. That’s pretty basic data, though because of the location (the clue may be in the name) I can imagine it takes some expertise to properly assess. Whether Crockford has got populations right, over time, is the main issue here – and a sensitive one for warmist propaganda. The article meanwhile has many ridiculous aspects, including immediate access to the SI, which Tom and others have rightly exposed.
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To underline the attitude of the subject of the hit-job, already mentioned by Paul.
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You say I’m fibbing, Mr. Martinez? Hmm.
Let’s let Dr. Crockford speak for herself on the matter:
“As I have emphasized elsewhere (“About” page), my undergraduate, Bachelor of Science degree is in Zoology (from the University of British Columbia, where polar bear biologist Ian Stirling earned the same degree a few years before me).(Tom’s note: Ian Stirling is one of the authors of the junk science paper under discussion here.) “My core intellectual interest is evolution and that has been true since I was a child.”
“Questions about dog origins drew me back into questions about evolution but it was the parallels with how other species arose that really captured my intellectual curiosity. Formulating a hypothesis about how the evolutionary process of speciation actually works at the biological level (in animals like dogs, polar bears, and humans) was the topic of my Ph.D. dissertation, which I completed in 2004. I did that Ph.D. work primarily on my own time and largely without funding.”
“Evolution, paleoecology, and biogeography (see here and here) are the common denominators that tie these diverse projects together for me. I have published peer-reviewed papers on all of these topics (see the list below), among others.
Over the last 20 years, I have been as interested in how, when, and why polar bears arose as a distinct species as I have been in how, when, and why dogs came to be. Neither of those issues have yet been resolved to anyone’s satisfaction: there are still many questions to be answered..”
Selected papers:
**Crockford, S.J. and G. Frederick 2011. Neoglacial sea ice and life history flexibility in ringed and fur seals. pg.65-91 in T. Braje and R. Torrey, eds. Human Impacts on Seals, Sea Lions, and Sea Otters: Integrating Archaeology and Ecology in the Northeast Pacific. U. California Press, LA.
*Baichtal, J.F. and Crockford, S.J. 2011. Possibility of kelp during the LGM in SE Alaska and implications for marine mammals. Poster 5-12, 19th Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, Tampa, FL. Nov. 28-Dec.2.
**Crockford, S.J. 2008. Be careful what you ask for: archaeozoological evidence of mid-Holocene climate change in the Bering Sea and implications for the origins of Arctic Thule. Pp. 113-131 in G. Clark, F. Leach and S. O’Connor (eds.), Islands of Inquiry: Colonisation, Seafaring and the Archaeology of Maritime Landscapes. Terra Australis 29 ANU E Press, Canberra. http://epress.anu.edu.au/ta29_citation.html
**Crockford, S. and Frederick, G. 2007. Sea ice expansion in the Bering Sea during the Neoglacial: evidence from archaeozoology. The Holocene 17(6):699-706.
*Crockford, S.J., Frederick, G. & Wigen, R. 2002. The Cape Flattery fur seal: An extinct species of Callorhinus in the eastern north Pacific? Canadian Journal of Archaeology 26(3):152-174. http://www.canadianarchaeology.com/publications.lasso”
Now the unimaginative among you might say that polar bears are not mentioned in the titles of these papers. The more astute will notice that seals, sea lions and sea otters have one thing in common–their principal land-bound predator. Again, those with a discerning eye might not that sea ice expansion might have just as dramatic an impact on polar bears as the overly-predicted sea ice decline.
Then, of course, there are the famed comments, one of which ATTP cannot find and Mr. Martinez, up far beyond his bedtime, characterizes as nothing more than blog commentary. Which, if his were the standard, would be poor indeed.
However, her book ‘Rhythms of Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species’ specifically covers polar bears. The books was reviewed in the Quarterly Review of Biology. The jacket reads “We know much less about how dogs and other domestic animals came to be, and how new breeds are developed, than most scientists will admit. The same is true about the process that turns any kind of wild animal into another: scientists know virtually nothing about how new species are actually generated. I’ve spent more than ten years investigating these issues and have made an exciting breakthrough that finally transcends the current preoccupation with genes. I discovered that a simple biological mechanism exists which explains precisely how wolves became dogs and how all animals, including our human ancestors, changed over time- something neither Darwin nor anyone since his time have done. Rhythms of Life explains fully, but without jargon, how animals transformed from one species to another using familiar and fascinating examples (including dogs, polar bears, extinct dodos, and the newly discovered dwarf hominid, Homo floresiensis)-and how this process continues to affect our daily lives..”
Crockford wrote Chapter Six in the book ‘Human Evolution Through Developmental Change, which dealt with polar bears as well as humans and even dogs., reviewed by The Proceedings of The Royal Society.
So Mr. Martinez, Mr. Rice and any other droolers out there–if you wish to limit your definition to a very narrow one, Dr. Crockford doesn’t have a peer reviewed paper specifically about polar bears. However, it will be obvious to all that you are misrepresenting Dr. Crockford’s expertise, interests and focus. Indeed, you will be lying about Dr. Crockford. As did the paper we are discussing, even if their statement about peer-reviewed papers about polar bears written on a Sunday on an IBM Selectric is technically true.
Indeed, it will be obvious to all that if we discovered a peer-reviewed paper on polar bears by Dr. Crockford that you would then disqualify her on the basis of gender, left-handedness or hair color.
To those of you so insistent on the virtues of peer review, I submit that you are involved in a terrible game of academic pole climbing that is completely divorced from the advancement of human understanding. You complain loudly and frequently about the publish or perish death match of academia–except when it helps you disqualify your opposition.
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As well as smearing Dr Crockford, there are other aspects of the paper that are of note. One familiar to regulars is here is this claim.
Doran and Zimmerman 2009 asked two questions
“Significant” is not synonymous with “most“.
Cook et. al 2013 looked at the endorsement of AGW theory, not the estimates of how much warming was due to AGW.
Any proper peer reviewer (someone with knowledge of the literature) should have picked up on this.
Proper scientists should have referred to the estimates from the data. This from AR5 WG1 Ch10 Page 869
If there was empirical evidence to support the belief that most of the warming since the Industrial Revolution is from human activities, the IPCC would have presented it. So the authors misrepresented nonsense opinion surveys instead.
For further details, and for links to check for yourselves, see my post here.
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The significance of my comment at 8.44am about Cook et al. 2013 is especially significant. As one of the authors is Stephan Lewandowsky was the doctoral supervisor of John Cook and Cook et. al 2013 was included in Cook’s doctoral dissertation, there is no excuse for misinterpretation.
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There has been much discussion concerning whether or not comments in Science can be considered scientific literature. I would suggest that they are. First they appear under the Journal’s imprimatur, so the journal must take some responsibility for them, second, that being so I would strongly suggest that the Journal takes care that nothing untoward gets accepted, and finally a reader can get access to a comment by accessing the Journal and, if wishing to quote it refers to the Journal. In other words, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…..
The Crockford comment is completely outside my field but it is still possible to make some limited judgement (I know Len will disagree but guess what….). The comment is short, tightly written, uses technical language in what appears to be an appropriate way and looks like the work of a competent person familiar with the topic. It makes a contribution to the topic. Furthermore the topic is upon a branch of science that the author is known to have done research and is identified as an established expert.
To my mind the comment is both published and a valid (but short) technical reference. It conveys the author’s considered and expert thoughts about the topic of the original paper and is a (limited) contribution to our knowledge.
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ATTL. Continuing my exploration of the status of Crockford’s comment, let me put this scenario to you. You are writing a physics paper and in the section reviewing the literature you know of a significant contribution housed within a comment upon another paper both within Science. Presumably, therefore you duly refer to the comment, and in exactly the same manner as you would if it had appeared in a peer-reviewed paper. Furthermore you will list it in your bibliography or references. Why then is it not a valid reference?
Admittedly not like a fully constructed work, and not reviewed by peers (probably reviewed by an editor however [well I used to when I was an editor]. We used to consider the like as grey (or gray) literature. In my case grey literature ranges from meeting abstracts to a major technical report that took me two years to research and write. There is much stuffyness about what constitutes acceptable scientific literature.
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Alan,
What I’m pointing out has nothing to do with whether or not something is acceptable. All I’m pointing out is that writing a comment into a box on a website (much like we’re doing here) is not peer-reviewed and does not qualify as a comment in a peer-reviewed journal, even if the website happens to be that of a peer-reviewed journal. I don’t think this is all that controversial a point. As to citing such sources; in my experience, it would be unusual but maybe it does happen in some circumstances.
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Len. I note that you dismiss the section in Crockford’s thesis upon polar bears as “only six paragraphs of a 100+ page document (plus refs and appendices) in which the author speculates vaguely about the origin of polar bears”*. I suppose that, since you have no connection with doctoral work, you might just be excused for your ignorance. The truth of the matter is that doctoral students are encouraged to consider how their work might be expanded, to deliberately speculate as to how it might be utilized in the future. Examiners, in my experience like to focus in on this part of a thesis because it is where the excitement of the science resides. It answers two important questions: is the candidate aware of the wider significance of their work, and how might those advances be achieved? So, I’m sorry to inform you but, almost certainly Crockford would have spent considerable time and effort on those six paragraphs and it would have been most unlikely that they were vague. Especially because at the time of the submission of her thesis she was already interested in polar bear evolution and numbers.
I also recall a colleague who did very important research into a topic in geology (almost certainly the most significant part by far) but when he came to write up found he had reached his word limit before reaching the topic, so it wasn’t included. Since he never published for decades, by your methodology, you would not identify him as an expert. Strange that! Everybody in the know knew his expertise.
*BTW did you read the thesis or have you read some one else’s spiteful comments and are passing them off as your own.
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ATTP. You seem to be perpetrating a myth that any tom, dick or harry can get a comment onto the Science site. Try it with some obvious garbage and see how far you get on.
In any case it’s the worthiness of the Crockford comment that is in question. I tried to evaluate this at 10.12am. Do you disagree or are you so stuck on the gold standard of peer-reviewed papers that anything else offends your scientific nosebuds.
I wonder how you treat industry geophysicists, whose equipment and methods are so much more advanced than those in academia. They never publish, so lacking peer-reviewed papers, can they be experts in your eyes? Many I have worked with were women as well. Two strikes?
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My daughter is on track to enter a PhD program at Johns Hopkins. Hearing her accounts of how lead scientists she has worked with actually behave, it is not surprising that Mann would find a gang to lead for the purpose of teaching uppity women their proper place.
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Tom,
Consider the effort Mann and gang took to dehumanize and objectify their intended victim. Gore Vidal once wrote to the effect that “politics is sex”. So stunts like Mann & gang are in effect acts of intellectual violence and dehumanization. There is a term used to describe those kind of assaults. Consider as well how the wannabe gang members here respond. Perhaps you should consider removing the “a”.
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It’s worth keeping in mind ATTP materialises only to run interference for his co-authors (from different papers). For eg, he started his blog career defending Lewandowsky and Cook’s consensus paper, leveraged that to gain co-authorship on other projects with them, and continued defending them while pretending to be a neutral party blinking innocently at the unfair accusations at his future collaborators.
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“The Consensus team is not shy about labeling, defaming and insulting those in opposition. But here we see once again that it is easier for them to do this with female opponents.
The paper’s authors are Jeffrey A. Harvey, Daphne van den Berg, Jacintha Ellers, Remko Kampen, Thomas W. Crowther, Peter Roessingh, Bart Verheggen, Rascha J. M. Nuijten, Eric Post, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ian Stirling, Meena Balgopal, Steven C. Amstrup, Michael E. Mann.”
The Climate Science Defense Fund uses Michael E. Mann in its publicity, to get donations to help defend scientists from just this sort of attack
https://www.csldf.org/
THE WAR ON SCIENCE
“Science is under siege. Anti-science groups and individuals seek to delegitimize, interfere with, and undermine facts and evidence that threaten their financial interests and ideological beliefs. Aggressive legal action, harassment, and even death threats are standard occurrences for climate researchers. We fight for scientists and defend scientific integrity by exposing and challenging these attacks against science to preserve academic freedom and prevent manipulation of public policy.”
The Lawyers in Mann vs Steyn may care to consider Mann’s sensitive nature to criticism, based on the Peer Reviewed Literature considered so important by Climate Scientists.
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This is what the paper was for – to get the headline
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial
Even if the ‘misinformation’ (smear) is retracted, people will remember this..
Lew has EVEN published on how hard to correct ‘misinformation’ !! So no excuses.
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Alan, You will notice that ATTP is focused on a single point about peer reviewed contributions of Crockford. He completely ignores the larger context. Harvey et al uses Crockford as an example in their analysis of the blogosphere and tries to denigrate her work without actually showing any substance about her work. That’s in my book a classic smear job. You write a paper about the social science aspects (I’m charitable here) denigrating someone without actually touching on the scientific issues of that person’s work. You merely associate them with “denier” blogs. Classical Mccarthy tactics.
If you look at Susan’s blog you will see that she is very upset by this content free political smear. She is justified in this anger in my view.
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Another of my comments currently in moderation at Bart Verheggen’s blog:
“If I may disagree with several commenters, this paper is not about polar bears at all. It is about social networking–which blogs other bloggers link to for support and consider as validating for their point of view.
The fight about credentials is tangential to this issue–although the paper again is wrong and foolish on the subject, as one of the paper’s authors has exactly the same credential from the same university as Dr. Crockford.
There is a body of work on Social Network Analysis that was not cited and clearly not consulted in the preparation of this paper, leading to my concerns that this is more personally motivated.
One of the authors engaged in an online fight with Dr. Crockford some months back. Dr. Crockford apparently got the better of the fight and this paper seems like nothing more than the academic version of revenge porn.
Indeed, if there is anything at all of value in this paper, we are unable to find it without the SI.
It is in tone and content very similar to the junk science put out at regular intervals by Stefan Lewandowski, one of this paper’s authors and, as I have said, is intended not to communicate but excommunicate.
The most surprising feature of this paper is in fact the participation of one Bart Verheggen, something I regret very much and which I venture to guess Bart Verheggen will too, some day.
Stephen Schneider put his imprint on a piece of junk science shortly before his death–Anderegg, Prall et al PNAS 2010. That paper, dismissed by no less than Spencer Weart on the day of its publication, serves as a sad coda to a distinguished career.
I hope this paper does not serve as a blight on your own, Bart.
You have the SI. You can publish it now. I call for you to do so.
But then, I asked 5 times for the data for Verheggen et al 2013 and you didn’t provide it. I guess that openness in science only goes so far.”
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Barry is I’m sure 100% right, as is Dr Crockford. This is rape and Dana, Ken and Len are enthusiastically taking part, as well as the authors of the original paper. So thank you Tom and all those who despise the rape-trolls. (And well worth noting it was worth consensus rape-enforcement putting some faux distance from the repugnant activity on this thread by two new names appearing on the Royal Society one – with the sly attempt to remind Jaime of earlier doxxing efforts making it quite clear how angry everyone is by the robust resistance on this thread and on Cliscep generally.)
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Richard, whats the deal with the SI file? Do you just want to see whether Cliscep is there? Or do you think it is not possible to differentiate science blogs from non-science blogs like Cliscep? On academic rape, bollocks.
Tom, so you and others think that Mann and co are lying, yet you admit that what they say is true: she has no publication record on polar bears. You are beyond parody.
“However, her book ‘Rhythms of Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species’ specifically covers polar bears. The books was reviewed in the Quarterly Review of Biology. The jacket reads…”
Not exactly about polar bears is it, whatever the jacket reads. You say it was reviewed by QRB, but I guess you didn’t read the review. It’s on JSTOR. The good news is that the book “is easy to read, nontechnical, and presents some refreshing new ideas”. The bad news is that “no evidence is presented for these “thyroid rhythms”” (the latter being the Crockford’s proposed mechanism for speciation), “errors in the descriptions of molecular biology, biochemistry, and endocrinology”, statements that are wrong, inaccurate references and oversimplification of the role of thyroid and ignoring other relevant factors. Not exactly a glowing review, is it? And no mention of bears ‘cos they’re peripheral at best to the subject of the book. And the lack of evidence for the core idea – she wrote a whole book about something for which she has no evidence – WTF!
Beany, “The significance of my comment at 8.44am about Cook et al. 2013 is especially significant.”. Wow, that sounds significant!
Alan, back to being petty with ‘ATTL’, eh? Didn’t take long. The thesis is here:
https://dspace.library.uvic.ca/bitstream/handle/1828/542/crockford_2004.pdf?sequence=1
Read it yourself. Polar bears from page 95. Vague was probably the wrong word, but speculation fits well.
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Back to the kiddie table, Mr. Martinez–you’re starting to sound like Lenny Bruce, reading trial transcripts at his own comedy show.
Grow up, wake up or shut up.
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Len. Thank you for the reference. So the vague comment is purely your own, I will retain that information. Actually that conclusion needn’t be true need it?
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Len, The SI is critical to determining if the methods and analysis of blogs in the paper is scientific or yet another example of Lew’s pseudo-science (and I’m being generous with this characterization).
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Len:
It should have been provided on publication.
No.
I already felt contempt for what you were doing on this thread. That makes it much worse. First among the rape-trolls, incurring zero reputation cost because (afaik) no climate sceptic here has a clue who you are in real life. All of this does blacken your name, whatever it is.
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I believe there are socities where gang sexual assaults are not exactly acceptable but definitely tolerated if the victim “had it coming”, ir if the gang leader is really upset by the uppity victim’s behavior.
It probably links back to when wise women were tortured and burned at the stake for daring to be interested in things men of power did not approve of.
We clearly see which side the trolls, apparently all if them, have chosen no matter how derivative and reactionary the position.
“Climate consensus”, where holding the line costs all you are.
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Jeff Harvey is famous for his attack on Björn Lomborg in the Scientific American. Apparently he has not learned from that. Pity that he again wasted dutch grant money for his latest faux pas.
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Bioscience encourages but doesn’t require authors to lodge their data at Dryad.
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/10/871/4411791
http://datadryad.org/journal/0006-3568
The data might not appear there, though, and if it does it might not be much use. From Dryad’s FAQ page:
Since blogs are mostly one-
manperson bands, info about who blogged what where might be verboten. But IANAL.LikeLike
Susan was a ‘problem” you see
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/24/fat-and-happy-polar-bears-no-longer-a-climate-chan/
so “peer reviewed” science paper, to pressure the likes of the Washington Post never to quote Susan again…..Which was of course the intent, and of course ‘revenge’ for Steven Amstrup, with 13 mates to help him… what did they all actually contribute to this paper? moral support?
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Washington Times, not Post, Barry. But entirely agreed about the base motives.
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Bart doesn’t seem the type to have got involved with this Tom, I agree. He liked a tweet I made in response to his tweet about contrarian blogs. I think the consensus industry has become a meat-grinder to be honest.
https://twitter.com/Balinteractive/status/937395037331173376
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And Then There’s Physics has retreated to the safety and comfort of his own venue to continue distorting everything we are writing here. We can always hope that Mr. Martinez made the journey with him.
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this started with the Moon Hoax paper.. I imagine it will continue, as academia seems to be oblivious to political activism.
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Academia, eith its thought free “safe zones” is pisiriveky thrilled at havingbgangs of fellow academics deliver the good ol’ what for on those unruly wimmin folks and unworthy men who dare to get out of line. A little gang trench warfare, a quiet visit from the night riders, and a lie or two whispered in the right ear and they can keep the Academy in the “right hands”….
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A new added attraction to Cliscep: rearrange Hunter’s post to get it to make some sense : big BIG prizes.
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Okay, Alan–here’s my try: Academia, with its thought free safe zones, is positively thrilled at having gangs of fellow academics deliver the good ol’ what for on those unruly wimmen folks and unworthy men who dare to get out of line. A little gang-trench warfare, a quiet visit from the night riders and a lie or two whispered in the right ear and they can keep the Academy in the right hands.
Question: Why not the left ear?
Alan, what do I win?
Hunter, how’d I do? Like that predictive texting much?
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I declare bankruptcy
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🙂
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Tom, I have often thought you didn’t fit the mold of climate “skeptics” but you have proven me wrong. Crockford has very obviously no published academic record of research or insight on polar bears but you cannot accept that, instead pushing non-existent ‘extensive’ record of comments on papers and even an evidence free book about a thyroid-evolution theory as evidence of such expertise. It is bizarre to see this from a sometimes sensible commenter.
Richard, why does it qualify as academic ‘rape’ in your eyes? Was something inserted where it didn’t belong? Why not buggery? Why not GBH or assault or mugging? Crockford’s use of the term rape trivializes this extreme violence that many women (and some men) are subject to.
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Len, I have a problem with the first five words of your latest comment. For some reason I can’t get past that….
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Here is proof of my point made above about this having nothing to do with science. Admitted to and agreed to by ATTP at his disingenuous blog.
So why then does a “peer reviewed” journal stoop to publishing something that has little to do with science and why do Verheggen and Mann become authors? Well perhaps that is obvious.
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It’s actually hilarious that you think that online commenting on a scientific article about polar bears (which anyone can do and is subject to scientific review by nobody) is akin to publishing a peer-reviewed original research article about polar bears.
Please remind me anyone why anyone is supposed to take you clowns seriously again?
If you can’t admit you’re wrong about this simple thing, then just admit that you are completely unamenable to all evidence of any kind.
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All of Susan Crockford’s comment at WUWT bears reposting here. She sums up neatly and devastatingly the motivations behind the Bioscence paper:
“Amstrup is pissed off because I criticized his work. He and Stirling are not used to being challenged.
He and his colleagues had the opportunity to formally demolish my PeerJ preprint online for all the world to see but they didn’t. That might have drawn attention to the issues I raised. They decided it would be best to ignore me.
Except others who matter (for funding etc) clearly DID read the paper and found merit in my conclusions – that must be true or Amstrup and Stirling would not have concocted this paper. They are trying to demolish me instead of addressing the failed predictions exposed in my paper.
Characterizing a professional, respected scientist as an unqualified vengeful opinion writer is the same kind of power attack as rape. It’s meant to humiliate and intimidate.
But it’s too late. And your rants about me being unqualified and substandard are as groundless as theirs.
Colleagues have read my paper and found it to be fully acceptable as a piece of academic scientific work.
If that were not true, this desperately ridiculous Bioscience paper would never have been published. I have exposed Amstrup’s failure and this is the only way he could think of to stop me: he went to Michael Mann for advice, with predictable results.
This paper says way more about these co-authors than it does about me. Mark my words, it will come back to haunt them.
Susan”
This sounds the death knell for climate alarmist academia.
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“Crockford has very obviously no published academic record of research or insight on polar bears”
LIAR
You truly are a profoundly unpleasant little man, aren’t you?
And a misogynist, a bully and a coward to boot.
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Mosher at ATTP:
I am seeing a “consensus” developing here that Harvey et al is a political exercise in pseudo-science.
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FWIW people do sometimes list comments published as letters in the print version of Science on their CVs, generally under unrefereed . They do not as a rule list on-line comments to an article
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Eli, thank you for a polite and on-point contribution. I learned something from you today.
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Grimage asks: “Please remind me anyone why anyone is supposed to take you clowns seriously again?”
Why? I think you overestimate how much I care who you take seriously.
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Len Martinez writes: “Some people’s idea of being expert is what others might consider just well read.”
Quite right. I see you wearing the same shoe.
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Weasel, you have trouble understanding the concept of lying. Perhaps that is another identifying characteristic of a “skeptic”.
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Len Martinez writes: “Perhaps that is another identifying characteristic of a skeptic”.
I believe that the distinguishing characteristic is two eyes and a bi-cameral brain. Where this combination might not be obvious (sunglasses and a hat), the upraised middle finger sometimes is diagnostic.
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As we used to say in the schoolyard, “I am rubber and I’m also glue. Everything you say makes me want to jump up and down on you.” Wasn’t that it?
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Dr Crockford wrote about failed predictions, largely by the scientists led by Amstrup and Stirling, hence their attack/revenge/smear in this paper. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/25/ten-dire-polar-bear-predictions-that-have-failed-as-global-population-hits-20-31k/
Of course anything that appears at WUWT makes the person a ‘denier’ in Lewandowsky’s Mann’s view. I expect we will all have go whistle for the SI, or should it be published it will be whilst inadequate, and it not until long after the media have smeared Crockford and sceptic blogs
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Barry Woods. It is possible, I suppose, that sceptical blogs could be smeared further, but I would suggest that, in the view of those promoting CAGW, we are already fairly low down in the toilet.
I do so hope that Dr Crockford finds some positives in being personally selected for attack. It is positive proof that she is important enough and her work sufficiently significant to be given “the treatment”. It should convey an impetus to continue.
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Just for clarity, I have nothing to do with this paper (I wasn’t involved in any way). All I’ve really pointed out is that the paper’s claim about Dr Crockford not having published any peer-reviewed papers on polar bears appears to be true. That, somehow, warrants being accused of rape. A bit hyperbolic, maybe? I’m not saying this in any expectation that the tone will improve, I’m simply doing so for the record.
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Grimmage
“It’s actually hilarious that you think that online commenting on a scientific article about polar bears (which anyone can do and is subject to scientific review by nobody) is akin to publishing a peer-reviewed original research article about polar bears”.
I am pleased you are happy, but sadly I must inform you that your merriment is misplaced. We do not EQUATE different forms of scientific publication. No-one equates comments with fully fledged papers, but neither do we sneer at comments. We also consider appropriate comments to be legitimate forms of scientific information. Crockford’s comment adds to our understanding of polar bears.
As I have commented earlier, her published comment has every appearance of being an authentic scientific contribution. Evaluate it for its content, not for its packaging.
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Lawyers acting on behalf of Mann and Steyn will note that Climate Scientist sensitivity is part of Mann’s claim.
Does Mann believe that personal attacks via Peer Reviewed Literature give him immunity from accusations of hypocrisy?
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It’s not rape. Crockford herself only compared it to rape, being, in her opinion, the same kind of ‘power attack’, which is unfortunate because it sets all kinds of people going off at tangents.
“Characterizing a professional, respected scientist as an unqualified vengeful opinion writer is the same kind of power attack as rape. It’s meant to humiliate and intimidate.”
Having said that, there’s no doubt there is a strong element of sexist bullying here. The climate justice warriors must be tearing their hair out (well, perhaps not Michael Mann). The social injustices which they purport to despise, mediated via the supposed unequal impacts of climate change, are here on full display for all to see, the perpetrators being none other than a collection of rankled mainly white, middle-aged male scientists ganging up on a lone woman, simply because she had the temerity to question the climate consensus party line. Not climate alarmism’s finest hour.
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The liars owe Crockford an apology
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And another one:
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It seems that not one of the 14 charlatans who wrote this smear job bothered to look at Crockford’s papers.
Nor did any of the reviewers of the paper.
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Paul Matthews, presumably the Peer Reviewers saw Mann’s name, and were frightened to make a critical comment?
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“Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on polar bears. ”
Sometimes the academic gaslighting gets even cynical old me. I’m an utter layman but as soon as I read that line I also quickly found out that Crockford *had* published papers mentioning polar bears too. It was so easy to find that, for a moment, I just assumed I was naive to assume that the language needs to precisely mean what it claims in peer reviewed literature, especially in social science peer reviewed literature, and especially with Lewandowsky peer reviewed literature.
But indeed, as Paul Matthews shows, there *are* published peer reviewed papers by Susan Crockford that refer to polar bears. My layman eyes weren’t lying.That is a gross error.
I’m sure no doubt the defenders of this paper may desire to respond with ‘you don’t understand the academic meaning here’ or it actually meant ‘she hasn’t done any field research’ – please try it 😉
Using social science to smear someone to avoid arguing a very testable proposition: i.e. that polar bear populations are not declining while ice cover has declined, has never been so hamfistedly obvious.
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Jaime, with respect, Susan Crockford also used ‘rape’ in the title of her blog post and her tweet to announce it on Saturday:
It’s a metaphor Susan chose and, I think, a highly accurate one, describing the lying and distorting as a group to destroy the reputation and career of someone who’s being doing good and much needed science, with an article in the Guardian to aid the destruction before anyone can even examine the SI. (Barry’s key point here.) It’s a metaphor and it’s valid. The complaints about it, without dealing with any of the ugliness that makes it appropriate, are, though, typical distraction.
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Added this comment at Fabius website, almost worthy of a blog post, all by itself?
—
The not mention your targets academic credential method has been used before in this paper..
(by Lewandowsky, Cook)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6
The intent to persuade that sceptics make contradictory statement, and compare it to a psychology paper that this is what conspiracy theorists do.. the lead quotes and title of the paper are not subtle in doing this
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6
“CO2 keeps our planet warm ….”
— Ian Plimer, Australian climate “skeptic”, Heaven & Earth, p. 411
“Temperature and CO2are not connected.”
— Ian Plimer, Australian climate “skeptic”, Heaven & Earth, p. 278
“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
— The White Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass, and What Alice Found There
“Skeptic”, Ian Plimer is Professor Ian Plimer a highly cited geologist (and well know sceptic Australian opponent of Cook/Lewandowsky) and a former Eureka prize winner.
I wonder if the peer reviewers knew his academic credentials, they would have bothered to obtained a copy of the book to check the quotes in context?
The first he is describing the greenhouse effect and ghg gases,and remember water vapour is the dominant greenhouse gas. The second quote, he refers to a period more recently (last million years, when CO2 is <0.04% of the atmosphere…and that changes in the warmth of the atmosphere wer not connected with CO2 in an earlier period geological period when CO2 had a low ppm, but temps were higher
The whole paper is a rehash of a 6 year old Skeptical Science blog post by John Cook.
https://skepticalscience.com/Plimer-vs-Plimer-one-man-contradiction.html
BUT earlier Cook uses a longer quote..
http://sks.to/plimervsplimer
"Together with water vapour, CO2 keeps our planet warm so that covered in ice, too hot or devoid of liquid water" Heaven & Earth, 2009 Page 411
So Lewandowsky, Cook knowing shortened the quote, lest anyone think that 'skeptic' (actually Professor) Plimer might think something slightly different to Lewandowsky's Cook assertions and actually check the references. Even some of the commenters at Cook's website checked the references and didn't think they were contradictory
They then tie this with the – Dead and Alice" Wood et al Psychology paper, that main claim that individual conspiracy theorists can believe mutually contradictory conspiracy theories at the same time, That Princes Diana was murdered, and she faked her won death – at the same time.. thus Pllmer (and Watts) and sceptics in general are as mad as these guys)
Problem there, is not a single person in the Dead and Alive paper, actually believed this n=0, none of the 137, 2nd year, 20 year old, mainly female psychology students 'surveyed' believed that. Data is available on request.
The paper further lists a number of other quotes /contradictions to Plimer and other sceptics (Watts) which on close inspect are not.. They then describe over two hundred other "sceptic contradictions".
https://skepticalscience.com/contradictions.php
the reference to this just John Cooks website. The quotes are, not actual quotes, very short pharse, no context, no references to a sceptic source, just paraphrases any contributor to the website , could add to the table. Over a hundred written by James Wight, a then teenage home schooled boy, who on his own blog says he is at war with sceptics/deniers (he is also a super admin at Cook's website) .
An example
CO2 is just a trace gas – CO2 is plant food – John Cook
(both are "true", Cook desn't explain the contradiction, or any source to which sceptic said it, in what context )
four more:
– It's the sun – Other planets are warming – jyushchyshyn
– It's the sun – Iapetus is warming – jyushchyshyn
– It's the sun – Mars is warming -jyushchyshyn
– It's the sun – Jupiter is warming – jyushchyshyn
(goodness knows how that is contradictory, they support the argument, Cook allows this, and no explanation)
– Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming – It snowed somewhere – James Wight
no quotes, no references, no explanation, just assertions by activists.
and this passed 'peer review'
they are laughable contradictions..
so laughable I added four of my own to the SKS contradictions table which is referenced by this paper and nobody at SkS even noticed! (I just picked 2 items from a drop down list and added a comment)
one of them
– China pollutes more – Chinese station data is missing – Barry Woods
Comment: sounds contradictory, but on close inspection talking about 2 entirely different subjects, not able to link to references of any "sceptics" saying his? this would help.
https://skepticalscience.com/contradictions.php
There is a pattern of behaviour here perhaps?
– "activism abusing science as a weapon" ? –
Prof Henry Markram (referring to Lewandowsky/Cook's actions with the retracted Recursive Fury paper.)
Write a paper, attack a sceptical opponent, or a sceptic theme, no matter the quality of the paper, get it in a journal and get the headlines?
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Richard,
Let me just repeat what you said:
If you’re intending a metaphor (rather than something libelous) maybe you could try harder to make it clearer?
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Please give me and other readers the full context. Thanks.
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Richard. We’ll have to agree to disagree here. I personally don’t think the metaphor is that appropriate. Rape is the extremely violent physical and mental violation of a woman, motivated primarily by sexual desire/imperatives. What these people have done is ugly and sexist, demeaning to Susan personally and professionally, but it’s not rape. Women who’ve been raped suffer something above and beyond what Susan has endured. I don’t think she would disagree with that.
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I think rape is an appropriate metaphor for Susan to have used and, precisely because of this, I don’t think it lessens the horrific reality of rape when it’s not a metaphor. But, as far as agreeing to disagree is concerned, let’s face it, it’s what we do best on Cliscep!
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Wonderful, Paul, thanks. Now I know how you tell what a paper is really about: if it contains a picture of a polar bear or the words “polar bear” = it’s about polar bears. Great! No need to read those long and boring titles, like in your example, “Thyroid rhythm phenotypes and hominid evolution: a new paradigm implicates pulsatile hormone secretion in speciation and adaptation changes”, let alone the abstract or text. No, that paper isn’t about homonid evolution or thyroid rhythms, it is about polar bears of course ‘cos it contains a picture of polar bears and the words “polar bears”.
Now you can apply your rule everywhere. This post is clearly about polar bears. In fact CliScep is almost an expert site on polar bears, having at least 18 posts about them.
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Len Martinez writes: “Now you can apply your rule everywhere.”
Indeed; and such a thing is all it takes for a paper to be counted as endorsing global warming is to mention it in passing, perhaps on a paper about sulfur hexafloride as a spark suppressor in circuit breakers.
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I agree with Jaime. The rape analogy is probably not helpful. Crockford herself seems to have used it as an analogy. She is obviously upset by this travesty and there is a deeply personal element to the Harvey et al paper that is disturbing.
What is troubling for ATTP is just what Joshua said at his blog:
I have to say, it seems to me that the paper that started this dust up is likely to add nothing of value to the public debate about climate change. I’m a bit disappointed that you [ATTP] seem to be positively impressed by it.
It’s the latest in a long line of alarmist and propagandist positions that focus on a single strip bark pine tree without seeing the forest.
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Polar Bear experts have run out of science to support themseves. Their forecasts of doom for Polar Bears have been proved wrong, by Polar Bears. Susan Crockford only has to point this out, and Polar Bear experts become offensive.
Great news for Polar Bears is bad news for Polar Bear Experts.
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David: You call it unhelpful, I call it fighting back. And I call the criticism of Susan Crockford for using rape as a metaphor a clear case of blaming the victim for daring to fight back. They tried to destroy her career and reputation through a dishonest, coordinated attack, including an article in The Guardian before anyone could check what Judy Curry considers the “worst paper ever”. I remain unrepentant in supporting Dr Crockford as she uses an entirely appropriate metaphor. But I agree it is unhelpful – to the rape-trolls. They thoroughly deserve not to be helped.
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No way was I blaming Susan Crockford for having the determination and courage to fight back against this scurrilous attack. Not at all.
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This topic is another proof of the dysfunctional nature of internet blog discourse on climate. Here ATTP can comment and does so frequently. At his echo chamber, most people who frequent this site are banned. A sad commentary on how little ATTP values diversity of thought. Disappointing but par for the modern academic leftist course.
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So now the gang member wannabes are blaming the victim for yelling loudly and using metaphors for the intellectual violence committed against her.
How dare she!
Those uppity wimmin folk daring to object at the boyz just blowing off a little steam.
Come on, who was really hurt, anyway?
Keep up the good work, Len and ATTP.
Your class is showing loud and clear.
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If only the authors of the paper, including the guy from Greg Laden’s blog we all deride as Jeffie, would go camping in Svalbard without taking precautions against the prime predator
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Len, it took a few responses from a 5 year-old and a centenarian to get one of Lew’s toilet papers published, why should standards be higher for sceptics? I know, you are tacitly accepting that we are more knowledgeable, more highly educated and more intelligent than your mentors and idols. Deal with it
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In my opinion, Dr Crockford is quite right to call it “rape“. The slime paper ignores her expertise and ignores the substance of her work, then repeats the claims she undermines. She knows that if it is not retracted – and the Lewandowsky cabal will not make sure that will not happen again – it will be referenced again and again. The slime paper has violated her integrity and smeared her reputation. Like a 1950s sci-fi B-movie, this paper adds to the growing fetid swamp, submerging reality beneath distortions, conspiracy theories and empty opinion. As an example of the distortion, consider the comment about the original hockey stick.
All the deconstruction of the many layers of distortions in that paper and other hockey stick reconstructions by Steve McIntyre is just blog bias. An example of the blinkered distortion the review of Andrew Montford’s book The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science at Real Climate in 2010 by the Tamino. Steve McIntyre was able to reply to most of the arguments by re-posting “Tamino and the Magic Flute” piece from two years before. Climate Alarmists realize that any rational game is up, which gives room to the likes of Lew and trolls to always have the last word, repeat empty opinions, distort the meanings of words and blank out on any evidence or opinions contrary to their own.
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Climate-science diss-course.
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The funny thing about this paper is that they accept that Polar Bear populations are currently fine. So their premise is simply “just believe us”.
No offense to the authors of this paper, but Logic > Data > Science. In this case it is a data (observations) vs science (models and hypothesis) debate and data wins.
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Ah the data, Rational Sceptic. Data on polar bears is sparse. They are difficult to count and breeding success over their range is hard to determine. The Arctic is big. Crockford makes sweeping claims in her recent paper about the bears not being at risk from habitat loss on the basis of sparse data from less than ten years of intermittent observations and no data on breeding success or animal physical conditions. The best that can be said is that observed bear numbers have not yet fallen and may in some areas have risen. Crockford goes too far beyond what the quality of the data supports.
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One aim of the Harvey paper is indeed to excommunicate.
Did sexism play a role? Maybe, but this is not the way to show it. Google Alice Wu EJMR.
A secondary aim of the Harvey paper is to provoke intemperate discussions like the one above, so let us recall the words of a wise woman, Michelle Obama: When they go low, we go high.
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One aspect of this story has yet to be asked. If Dr Crockford is indeed a reputable researcher worthy of consideration and respect, why hadn’t she a flock of well researched prestigious peer-reviewed papers to her name? She has a few, but nowhere near the output from someone who is able to keep a blog site going that consists almost entirely of her own contributions or those she has repackaged or rewritten? One must also remember that her doctoral degree was obtained not in the usual way, but later, mostly away from the granting institution and self funded. I have enormous respect for people like her who achieve their doctorate by taking a very difficult route.
I do not know the answers. I have used the web over the past few days but have had no success. I have two hypotheses which could be combined.
Hypothesis 1. She has powerful enemies that prevent her getting acceptance for her work. No evidence for or against, but I would bet that today such a blockage might exist.
Hypothesis 2. She has a phobia about submitting her work for approval. [Before you dismiss this out of hand I admit to a recently developed phobia concerning the submission of my last research paper that caused me to delay resubmission for over a year. But for the help of a kindly editor and a colleague it wouldn’t have been published]. It can’t be a writing phobia because she is prolific on her blog. Perhaps its one like mine. Or perhaps she had a bad experience during an early peer review. Or is it simply that she wants to get on with research, and the tedium of writing in a very prescribed format and enduring the formalities of submission and peer review (my problem) are just not to be borne.
Whatever the reason(s), what cannot be concluded is that a paucity of peer-reviewed literature is an indication of an ill-informed mind.
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Alan, the question you raise is closely related to the only question asked at her open paper. Someone asks
She does not provide any. There could be various reasons for this. Perhaps she feels that reviews should be regarded as confidential, for the eyes of author, reviewer and editor only.
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Len is keen to point out data sparsity and quality issues when it
is contrary to his worldview. How ironic.
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Good questions, Alan and Paul.
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THOMASWFULLER2 (03 Dec 17 at 1:51 am)
More on lead author Jeffrey A. Harvey from his Dutch (not Danish) establishment:
https://nioo.knaw.nl/nl/employees/jeff-harvey%20%20
Expertise
Life history strategies in parasitoids and hyperparasitoids, Plant-herbivore-parasitoid interactions, Community ecology, Science and advocacy
(4) Science, ecology and advocacy.
Scientists are currently faced with the immense challenge of better informing the public and policy makers as to the underlying causes and potential consequences of human-induced simplification of the biosphere… At the same time, sophisticated techniques are being employed around the world by powerful, vested interests that are aiming to change the way the public thinks about the environment. For example, a number of dubious sources are invoking science as a tool to influence and reshape public opinion, to attack the consensus view held amongst the scientific community, and to ultimately influence politicians into reducing environmental regulations. In the face of this new threat from the political right, scientists are faced with the immense challenge of better informing the public and policy makers as to the underlying causes and potential consequences of human-induced changes to the biosphere and their consequent effects on the delivery of ecosystem services. Over the past several years I have become actively involved in discussions based on bridging economics and ecology, in an attempt to stem the relentless flow of disinformation emanating from a number of surprisingly well-endowed think tanks and public relations firms that are distorting science to support a political agenda and pre-determined worldview on environmental issues.
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The list of “science-based blogs” and “AGW denying blogs” is now available.
BH, GWPF, WUWT, Paul Homewood, Matt Ridley and Hilary’s blog are listed, but sadly we didn’t make it. We must try to write more about polar bears, with more references to Susan’s outstanding work.
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The supplementary information can now be found on Bart Verheggen’s.
It is incomplete.
It says that, in the PCA, missing values were replaced by zero.
Michael Mann has an unfortunate history with PCA, that continues to this day.
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From the late released treasure trove/SI/junk (delete as applicable)
But surely none of these deny AGW. They deny, or at least question, CAGW.
Same old lie. Again and again and again and again (delete as applicable).
Produced by morons for morons.
Except, as Barry said earlier
So slimeballs and rape-trolls pretending to be morons, as they seek to destroy the reputation and career of one good scientist.
It will only get worse from here unless the fight this time is won.
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listing the blogs. is NOT the data..
listing the articles analysed at the blogs IS the data.. (tghus missing)
for example. this Polar Bear article by Dr Susan Crockford at Watts Up With That – has numerous references to mainstream sources.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/25/ten-dire-polar-bear-predictions-that-have-failed-as-global-population-hits-20-31k/
Susan (at WUWT) references:
http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/03/25/will-your-suv-wipe-out-all-polar-bears
http://arcticjournal.com/culture/1803/climate-change-new-over-hunting
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0
http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/western-hudson-bay.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160223-polar-bears-arctic-cannibals-animals-science/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34123834
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-bears-threatened-species-or-political-pawn-1.2753645
http://arcticportal.org/library/news/1566-circumpolar-action-plan-now-available
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674circumpolar_nations_strike_new_plan_to_protect_polar_bears/
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2015/12/23/polar-bears-make-a-comeback/
The WUWT article there links to Susan Crockford website.. where she posts further references… here:
REFERENCES FOR THE PREDICTIONS
Amstrup, S.C. 2011. Polar bears and climate change: certainties, uncertainties, and hope in a warming world. In: R.T.Watson, T.J. Cade, M. Fuller, G. Hunt and E. Potapov (eds.), Gyrfalcons and Ptarmigan in a Changing World, Volume 1. The Peregrine Fund, Boise, Idaho.
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. and Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report, US Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia.
Amstrup, S.C.,Marcot, B.G. and Douglas, D.C. 2008. A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears. Pp. 213–268 in Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, E.T. DeWeaver, C.M. Bitz and L.B. Tremblay (eds.). Geophysical Monograph 180. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.
Amstrup, S.C., DeWeaver, E.T., Douglas, D.C., Marcot, B.G., Durner, G.M., Bitz, C.M. and Bailey, D.A. 2010. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence. Nature 468: 955–958.
Atwood, T.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas,D.C., Amstrup, S.C., Rode, K.D., Durner, G.M. and Bromaghin, J.F. 2014. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears. USGS Open-File Report 2014–1254.
Derocher, A.E., Aars, J., Steven C. Amstrup, S.C. and nine others. 2013. Rapid ecosystem change and polar bear conservation. Conservation Letters 6(5):368-375.
Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J. and Stirling, I. 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integrative and Comparative Biology 44: 163–176.
Durner, G.M., Douglas, D.C., Nielson, R.M., Amstrup, S.C., McDonald, T.L. and 12 others. 2007. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Administrative Report, US Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia.
Durner, G.M., Douglas, D.C., Nielson, R.M., Amstrup, S.C., McDonald, T.L. and 12 others. 2009. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecological Monographs 79: 25–58.
Hassol, S.J. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic : Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK.
Obbard, M.E., Theimann, G.W., Peacock, E. and DeBryn, T.D. (eds) 2010. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 15th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 29June-3 July, 2009, Copenhagen,Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/
Overland, J.E. andWang, M. 2013. When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice-free? Geophysical Research Letters 40: 2097–2101.
Stirling, I. and Derocher, A.E. 2012. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence. Global Change Biology 18(9): 2694–2706.
Stirling, I. and Parkinson, C.L. 2006. Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus ) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 59: 261–275.
Vongraven,D., Aars, J., Amstrup, S., et al. 2012. A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears. Ursus 23 (sp2): 1–66. pdf here.
Wang M., Overland, J.E., Stabeno, P. 2012. Future climate of the Bering and Chukchi Seas projected by global climate models. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 65–70: 46–57.
REFERENCES FOR THE EVIDENCE THAT THE ABOVE PREDICTIONS HAVE FAILED
Bromaghin, J.F., McDonald, T.L., Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Richardson, E.S., Rehehr, E.V., Douglas, D.C., Durner, G.M., Atwood, T. and Amstrup, S.C. 2015. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline. Ecological Applications 25(3):634–651.
Cherry, S.G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., Lunn, N.J. 2013. Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 82: 912–921.
Crawford, J. and Quakenbush, L. 2013. Ringed seals and climate change: early predictions versus recent observations in Alaska. Oral presentation by Justin Crawfort, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26–29, Anchorage, AK. http://seagrant.uaf.edu/conferences/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/program.php.
Crockford, S.J. 2015. “The Arctic Fallacy: sea ice stability and the polar bear.” GWPF Briefing 16. The Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Pdf here.
Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1996. Aspects of survival in juvenile polar bears. Canadian Journal of Zoology 73: 1246–1252.
Derocher, A.E., Stirling, I. and Andriashek, D. 1992. Pregnancy rates and progesterone levels of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Canadian Journal of Zoology 70: 561–566.
Derocher, A.E.,Wiig,Ø. and Andersen, M. 2002. Diet composition of polar bears in Svalbard and the western Barents Sea. Polar Biology 25 (6): 448–452.
Ferguson, S.H., Stirling, I. and McLoughlin, P. 2005. Climate change and ringed seal (Phoca hispida ) recruitment in Western Hudson Bay. Marine Mammal Science 21: 121–135.
Harwood, L.A., Smith, T.G. and Melling, H. 2000. Variation in reproduction and body condition of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida ) in western Prince Albert Sound, NT, Canada, as assessed through a harvest-based sampling program. Arctic 53(4): 422 – 431.
Harwood, L.A., Smith, T.G., Melling, H., Alikamik, J. and Kingsley, M.C.S. 2012. Ringed seals and sea ice in Canada’swestern Arctic: harvest-based monitoring 1992–2011. Arctic 65: 377–390.
Lunn, N.J., Servanty, S., Regehr, E.V., Converse, S.J., Richardson, E. and Stirling, I. 2014. Demography and population assessment of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, Canada. Environment Canada Research Report. July 2014. PDF HERE
Peacock, E., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J. and Obbard, M.E. 2010. Polar bear ecology and management in Hudson Bay in the face of climate change. In: A Little Less Arctic: Top Predators in the World’s Largest Northern Inland Sea, Hudson Bay. S.H. Ferguson, L.L. Loseto and M.L. Mallory (eds). Springer.
Peacock, E., Taylor, M.K., Laake, J. and Stirling, I. 2013. Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland. Journal of Wildlife Management 77: 463–476.
Pilfold, N. W., Derocher, A. E., Stirling, I. and Richardson, E. 2015 in press. Multi-temporal factors influence predation for polar bears in a changing climate. Oikos. doi: 10.1111/oik.02000
Pagano, A.M., Durner, G.M., Amstrup, S.C., Simac, K.S. and York, G.S. 2012. Long-distance swimming by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea during years of extensive open water. Canadian Journal of Zoology 90: 663-676.
Rode, K.D., Peacock, E., Taylor, M., Stirling, I., Born, E.W., Laidre, K.L. and Wiig, Ø. 2012. A tale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest and body condition. Population Ecology 54: 3–18. [Davis Strait and Baffin Bay]
Rode, K.D., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W. and Budge, S. 2013. Comparison in polar bear response to sea ice loss in the Chukchi and southern Beaufort Seas. Oral presentation at the 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26–29. Anchorage, AK.
Rode, K. and Regehr, E.V. 2010. Polar bear research in the Chukchi and Bering Seas: A synopsis of 2010 field work. Unpublished report to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior, Anchorage. pdf here.
Rode, K.D., Regehr, E.V.,Douglas,D.,Durner, G.,Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W. and Budge, S. 2014. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Global Change Biology 20(1): 76–88.
Schliebe, S., Rode, K.D., Gleason, J.S., Wilder, J., Proffitt, K., Evans, T.J., and S. Miller. 2008. Effects of sea ice extent and food availability on spatial and temporal distribution of polar bears during the fall open-water period in the southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology 31:999-1010.
Stapleton S., Atkinson, S., Hedman, D., and Garshelis, D. 2014. Revisiting Western Hudson Bay: using aerial surveys to update polar bear abundance in a sentinel population. Biological Conservation 170:38-47. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320713004618#
Stirling, I. 2002. Polar bears and seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf: a synthesis of population trends and ecological relationships over three decades. Arctic 55 (Suppl. 1): 59–76.
Stirling, I. and Lunn, N.J. 1997. Environmental fluctuations in arctic marine ecosystems as reflected by variability in reproduction of polar bears and ringed seals. In: Ecology of Arctic Environments,Woodin, S.J. and Marquiss, M. (eds). Blackwell Science.
Stirling, I. and Øritsland, N. A. 1995. Relationships between estimates of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations in the Canadian Arctic. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 52: 2594 – 2612.
Stirling, I., Pearson, A.M. and Bunnell, F.L. 1976. Population ecology studies of polar and grizzly bears in northern Canada. Transactions of the 41st North American Wildlife Conference 41: 421–430.
Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Kolenasky, G.B., Juniper, I., Robertson, R.J. and Luttich, S. 1980. Proceedings of the 7th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 30 January-1 February, 1979, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN, pp. 45–53.
Stirling, I, Kingsley, M. and Calvert, W. 1982. The distribution and abundance of seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea, 1974–79. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper 47. Edmonton.
Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., Elliott, C. and Obbard, M. 2004. Polar bear distribution and abundance on the southwestern Hudson Bay coast during open water season, in relation to population trends and annual ice patterns. Arctic 57: 15–26.
Stirling, I., Richardson, E., Thiemann, G.W. and Derocher, A.E. 2008. Unusual predation attempts of polar bears on ringed seals in the southern Beaufort Sea: possible significance of changing spring ice conditions. Arctic 61: 14–22.
Swart, N.C., Fyfe, J.C., Hawkins, E., Kay, J.E. and Jahn, A. 2015. Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends. Nature Climate Change 5(2): 86–89.
Wiig, Ø., Born, E.W., and Garner, G.W. (eds.) 1995. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 11th working meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialists Group, 25-27 January, 1993, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/
Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, K., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., Regehr, E. & Thiemann, G. 2015. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0
So which WUWT article were analysed
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Absolutely right Barry.
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Just out of interest, what is your plan for winning this supposed fight?
[It’s in the secret email. Which of course we always copy to you.]
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If I can step in front of other commenters, the fight to me seems to be the ongoing struggle to avoid marginalization, not because of the data we present or the analysis of it, but because we are not convinced by the policy prescriptions of the Consensus.
This paper starts off by labeling their policy opponents as deniers, a pejorative term that has no referent and is patently used to deligitimize. The paper lands on Susan Crockford as the proper case study to explore, apparently because of prior history of discussion with two of the paper’s authors. Apparently choosing the better known weblogs of Judith Curry or Steve McIntrye would not have yielded the separation of lines of communication the paper’s authors desired to see.
This fight has been ongoing for more than a decade and has been clearly described, often triumphally by those in the Consensus who brag about the damage they inflict on the reputations of people like Lindzen, Curry, Spencer, Happer, Dyson, Tol, both Pielkes, and on and on. It is also frequently described by opponents of the Consensus as a concerted and ongoing effort to undercut them (us) not because of science but because of politics. To date, the Consensus has not provided much of an answer to that argument.
Usually, in fact, we see the leading lights of the Consensus refusing to look at the work product of their opponents, claiming that they don’t need to evaluate the work of ‘deniers’ simply because they have labeled them ‘deniers.’
This paper, having labeled Crockford a ‘denier’, doesn’t examine her work product at all. They insult her and say ‘look at all the denier blogs that link to her.’
It’s part of the Mean Girls strategy, one that you ATTP are very familiar with. Your question appears to be a bit disingenuous.
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…AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS (05 Dec 17 at 4:49 pm)
The Santer Gambit. Or failing that, ridicule. The second of their “science-based blogs” is “Advocacy for Animals” run by four employees of Britannica, a lady with an MA in English, a philosophy editor, author of over 20 books on philosophy, banking and finance, a sinologist (editor in chief at Britannica for the past 20 years) and a former editor for Britannica “specializing in small island states, scattered US states, Australia and New Zealand, and North and South Korea.”
“Science based” clearly means “agree with us consensus types.” And they’ve got a scatter diagram to prove it!
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As for how we intend to win this fight, it’s my personal opinion that we won’t. The institutional forces arrayed against opponents of the Consensus are too strong.
As a Lukewarmer, I agree with large swathes of the science presented by the Consensus. I disagree with many of the policy prescriptions the Consensus presents as mandatory and minimum.
Recognizing that we may win every tactical battle and yet lose the war, my aim is to minimize the damage I believe will be caused by hasty and ill thought out policies, as already seen in areas such as wind turbine location, biofuels and adoption of diesel for passenger vehicles.
My tactic for this losing battle is to continue to confront the Consensus where it is wrong in such venues that are available to me. And to continue to call out poor behavior where I see it.
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Tom:
That’s both exceptionally well put and, unfortunately, nothing like adequate.
It is indeed “because we are not convinced by the policy prescriptions of the Consensus” far more than any views we might have on the science, even less “the data we present,” which, as you rightly say, is ignored for the slam-dunk reason we can be called Deniers. What intellectual heights.
But the moronic element in all this – witness the witless ‘SI’ released at Bart Simpson’s – takes me back to this, mentioned last month:
https://twitter.com/OwenBenjamin/status/926958419134820352
Emasculated liars due to public humiliation of anyone who dissents about any aspect of the current consensus moronity is unfortunately by now the name of the game.
Geoff is of course right about the ridicule. Your straighter bat in exposing the venality behind the inanity in the assault on Dr Crockford is also much appreciated.
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Alan Kendall asks: “If Dr Crockford is indeed a reputable researcher worthy of consideration and respect, why hadn’t she a flock of well researched prestigious peer-reviewed papers to her name?”
I don’t know but I sense a similarity in my own life; it is the extravert versus introvert thing.
I enjoy adventure and travel, often in cold hard climates. I’m very good at my work. I do not seek recognition and thus none is given.
It is easy enough to see a distinction between a publicity-seeking scientist, in my opinion typically rather arrogant, and a quiet, introverted researcher that might publish absolutely nothing in a lifetime, leaving it to others to do that sort of thing if they wish.
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you would be wrong if you think Crockford is the only/primary target..
– ie – main text of ‘paper’
Watts Up With That (WUWT), which consistently denies AGW and/or threats linked to it, is described as “perhaps the most visited climate website in the world,” with “more than two million unique views a month” (Pearce 2010). Other AGW-denying blogs, such as Climate Depot (CD) and Junk Science (JS), are not far behind. Many denier blogs exist and, because of cross-linking, form a large echo chamber, making them what one journalist described as “foot soldiers of AGW denial”
these are the real targets… (as was Moon Hoax, Fury (both of them) Alice paper, etc,etc)
I hadn’t quite noted how littered the paper is with ‘denier’ . ‘denier blog’ references.
oh and this..
“Despite the growing evidence in support of AGW, these blogs continue to aggressively deny the causes and/or the projected effects of AGW and to personally attack scientists who publish peer-reviewed research in the field with the aim of fomenting doubt to maintain the consensus gap.”
I hear Mann and Lewandowsky’s whinging – and their ‘framing’ – science under attack, less data transparency, etc.
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Tom — As for how we intend to win this fight, it’s my personal opinion that we won’t. The institutional forces arrayed against opponents of the Consensus are too strong.
I always thought that we would see a collapse of climate-environmentalism before we saw a Brexit. (Granted, it ain’t over yet, but…). In some senses, we’ve seen it begin to crumble in the US. Pro climate Western and European leaders have pushed it too hard – it will likely be more immigration than Energiewende that sees off Merkel (if that is her fate), but there is pressure on that policy too. A generation of climate policy has begun to manifest real consequences. Trudeau has angered very many outside his bubble. And in Australia, too, huge hikes in energy prices are creating a more real force. These are numbers games, not flame wars. The institutional machine is only capable of churning out trite volumes of recycled, politically-motivated material to overwhelm debate. And look how anxious it is. A confident body of thought does not act like Harvey et al.
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Trump has to consider the USA’s funding of Climate Science by US Taxpayers. Presumably this will include Polar Bears and their experts, because these experts have aligned themselves with Lewandiowsky and Mann.
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Alan, she probably has no publication record because she has no opportunity to study the animals. Victoria is far from polar bear country. Research is done largely by people living and working in the Arctic. Crockford takes that research and draws far reaching confident conclusions from it that suit her audience and sponsors but maybe is unsuitable for academic publication.
Here’s an article that seems quite balanced:
https://www.canadiangeographic.ca/article/truth-about-polar-bears
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I was interested in some kind of answer, and I’m still not quite sure what the plan would be. I was wondering if it might be along the lines of publishing some kind of kind of high-impact, ground-breaking paper. That would certainly be effective. Has anyone considered this?
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Len Martinez acknowleges: “Data on polar bears is sparse. They are difficult to count and breeding success over their range is hard to determine. The Arctic is big.”
These factors seem not to have stopped the Advocates of Alarm.
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If we had a plan, do you think we’d tell you about it Kenny?
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Kenny – I was wondering if it might be along the lines of publishing some kind of kind of high-impact, ground-breaking paper.
We’re going to chat about it on our next meeting with the space Jews on the Putin-Exxon UFO-yacht.
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ATTP writes: “I’m still not quite sure what the plan would be.”
It is the nature of skeptics to be skeptical of other skeptics; thus there may be many plans rather than one big glorious Plan.
“I was wondering if it might be along the lines of publishing some kind of kind of high-impact, ground-breaking paper.”
Yes: “Climategate”.
I sense a bit of cart-before-horse, or who has burden of proof. I do not need to convince scholars that X proportion of climate change is attributable to human activity. The burden is upon scholars to convince taxpayers to give up heat, light and energy based on things only scholars understand anyway and for which no look-out-the-window evidence exists.
In what way is this significantly different than a priest or preacher telling you to give up your bad habits because eventually you will be judged and while you cannot see the evidence for it looking out the window, 97 percent of all priests agree that judgment is in the future?
What does it take for a Richard Dawkins to poke holes in a typical hard-line religion such as Catholicism? Not much; just demand to see God. What you’ll get is some claims of angels and statues that cry tears.
What does it take for someone to poke holes in climate change alarmism? Not much; just demand to see some climate change. What you’ll get is some claims about polar bears. How many of Earth’s 7 billion people have seen a polar bear? Do they CARE? Apparently few and not very much.
As it happens I know there’s a God, not the god of the Catholics or anyone else’s necessarily; but there is one. You may well be as sure of climate change and whose fault it is. That’s not the problem. The problem is convincing other people that you are right and they are wrong. A “paper” isn’t going to do that for most people, not even scholars.
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Ben:
“it ain’t over yet … in some senses … etc”
It’s a moment of uncertainty. That really bothers the self-appointed experts. I can’t get Michael Palin as the cretinous Molotov out of my mind as I write that. It’s so undignified not having a clue. Except, of course, for real sceptics. Uncertainty is our life-force. 🙂
I’m sure that’s why ATTP is so desperate to know the plan. See you’all on board.
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the plan… I tell you the plan…. there is – no plan
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Len as per usual you display the credentials of a cretinous oaf. Is there no subject to which you can hide your faux expertise? I suggest you read Crockford’s own description of the work she conducts. But of course you will not accept its validity. You being so “well read”. I’m amazed you weren’t asked to be co-author #14, but of course your reticence prevented you.
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“Len as per usual you display the credentials of a cretinous oaf”
I feel I must object to that calumny on behalf of cretinous oafs the World over.
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Mr. Martinez, thank you for linking to that article. Did you read it? I’ll call your attention to a key passage:
“Despite all this hedging, the numbers still tell a powerful story. It’s just not always clear what that story is. In Davis Strait, between Greenland and Baffin Island, the polar bear population has grown from 900 animals in the late 1970s to around 2,100 today. In Foxe Basin — a portion of northern Hudson Bay — a population that was estimated to be 2,300 in the early 2000s now stands at 2,570. And in specific areas of western Hudson Bay, the most-studied, most-photographed group of bears on Earth seems to have been on a slow but steady increase since in the 1970s.
News like this leaves climate-change deniers crowing from the rooftops. But a closer look reveals that everything may not be quite so sunny. “Some populations appear to be doing OK now, but what’s frightening is what might happen in the very near future,” says wildlife biologist Lily Peacock, who has worked with polar bears for the Government of Nunavut and the U.S. Geological Survey. “All indications are that the future does not look bright.”
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Ken A.T.T. Was-Physics poses the Leninist question; what is to be done? And asks when we’re publishing our paper. Patience Dr Rice. We at Cliscep are even now perfecting our predictive model as to when the great climate blancmange will finally slither down the wastepipe.
My own research on E-bay using the keywords “polar bear costume” indicates that it’s already happened. True, there are numerous offers, (990,000 according to Google) including:
And a “Polar Bear Economy Adult Costume White Cuddly Arctic Cool with hidden openings.” E-Bay adds a useful guide on how to choose your costume:
The funny thing is, none of the offers suggest wearing the thing to protest about climate change. It’s all about Halloween. Global Warming is folklore, like horoscopes and Father Christmas.
But, thanks to your own research into exo-planets, you know how close are science fantasy and science fact. Come over to the sensible side Ken, before it’s too late.
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BPW:
No idea how commenting here works. But want a funny story. If possible, research Deltoid archives where I specifically ask about Crawford. Probably 5 years ago. Was trashed immediately by non other than Dr. Harvey if I’m not mistaken. Right after she started her blog.
[Brian – welcome. Your first comment goes into mderation but follow-ups will go straight through if you use the same signup details – PM]
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Poor Len, the uppity deniers are just refusing to do as they know rhey should be doing.
Even after he so kindly tells us, time and time again, what scummy deniers we are.
And his obvious desire to have been abke to have had a piece of giving it to that loud mouthed unworthy Canadian with his gang of heroes drips from his keyboard.
Keep it up Len, you’ll get us to understand you one of these days.
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Have just read Susan Crockford over at WUWT
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/05/retraction-request-for-harvey-et-al-attack-paper-on-dr-susan-crockford/
It is a devastating document, tightly written, well documented and argued. Rather than being submitted as a request/demand for a retraction, it would be far more effective as a discussion paper. If this failed to get through peer review, so much more evidence for bias on the part of the journal and of the authors of the original piece of garbage. So why didn’t SC submit it in such a format? Too late now.
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A smear-job is a smear-job. Screw “discussion papers”.
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Clipe. Only part of it is a smear job, the remainder is just as insidious, just as biased and just as wrong. Look at this site, where’s the focus. Notice how tight that is. What’s being ignored?
I would argue that Susan needs official credibility and wider exposure. One possibility was for her rebuttal to have been peer reviewed and published. As I asserted, refusal of the Journal to do this would provide even more ammunition. As it is, knowledge of this travesty is confined to readers of Susan’s blog and a few other blogs like this one. This compared to all ecologists with access to a library.
To my knowledge this affair has not been picked up by the MSM. Why? A bust up between equals (peer reviewed publications) might well be.
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Alan, “To my knowledge this affair has not been picked up by the MSM.”
I suggest you look out for Terence Corcoran’s column in the National Post later today.
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I worry about Len. If he doesn’t stop digging, the sides of his hole may collapse and stifle him permanently.
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A little unfair to use the word “excommunicate”. There is some nastiness from a commentator above about Roman Catholicism. But hey. It is Americas longest hatred. Excommunication is usually a pastoral affair. Not meant to punish or ostracize but allow the sinner a period of reflection. It is certainly in Roman Catholicism not meant to be public much also as confession is the same. Perhaps the physical should eschew the language of the metaphysical. Otherwise I like the article as it offers a political counterpoint to some of the ‘narratives’ bandied about. ( Forgive my grammar. I’m Irish. )
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Great, i hope you like mine https://harshit977.wordpress.com/2018/01/07/oil-prices-and-inflationary-pressures/
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Len Martinez:
No, because I don ‘t have False Memory Syndrome.
She put a period after the word “wow.” Not an exclamation mark.
She also predicated her estimate of the paper’s—oh, sorry I mean the drivel’s—impact on the condition that it checked out scientifically.
Yet you expect us to believe she’s a credulous, uncritical glutton for BS.
Sorry, I’m not buying it. I guess I’m just not a credulous, uncritical glutton for BS.
Incidentally, you yourself seem to put periods at the end of your questions, which suggests that your woeful reading skills are just the tip of an iceberg of adult illiteracy.
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I don’t think Michael and Naomi Oreskes are related. The former’s Wikipedia entry states,
“He has three siblings: Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science;”
whereas the Naomi Oreskes we know and love is an alt-history conspiracy theorist who teaches pseudoscience at Harvard.
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Brilliant article, by the way, Tom.
The punchline makes me want to punch someone with envy. I’ve tried so many variants of that joke in vain, but you made it work first time. (And yours was simultaneously profound and funny).
This, for instance, was my hapless quip about revelations that the Pope once worked in a lab:
“They promised us science communicators.
Instead we got exscientist excommunicators.”
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Tom, if you get a chance, change “inferred snicker” to “implied snicker.”
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Tom,
This post was referenced in this paper-
Emma Frances Bloomfield & Denise Tillery (2019) The Circulation of Climate Change Denial Online: Rhetorical and Networking Strategies on Facebook, Environmental Communication, 13:1, 23-34, DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2018.1527378
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329485682_The_Circulation_of_Climate_Change_Denial_Online_Rhetorical_and_Networking_Strategies_on_Facebook
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